TF HTAP, TF IAM, Vienna, February 2015.0

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

tons

RCP

GAINS CLE

GAINS NFC

GAINS MTFR

SO2

HTAP-GAINS scenario analysis: preliminary exploration of emission scenarios with regard to the benefits of global cooperation.

Rita Van Dingenen, Frank Dentener (JRC), Chris Heyes, Zig Klimont (IIASA)

ExamplesA prototype for HTAP

•Examine transport of air pollution across the Northern Hemisphere, including ozone (precursors) and PM and components (including black carbon), mercury, and persistent organic pollutants.

•Assess potential emission mitigation options available inside and outside the UNECE region

•Assess their impacts on regional and global air quality,public health, ecosystems, near-term climate change

•Collaboration with other groups both inside and outside the Convention

HTAP’s Mandate

2

Based on Wild et al, ACP, 2012

Previous HTAP scenario analysis based on HTAP Phase 1 multi-model simulations

Annual average ozone changes in Europe for various scenarios

From emissions to impacts: the FAst Scenario Screening Tool: TM5-FASST

•Emissions considered: - SO2, NOx, NMVOC, NH3, CO ; CH4, Elemental Carbon, Primary Organic Matter, other primary PM

•Examples of impacts considered:- PM2.5 and O3 surface concentration and population exposure- O3 metrics for crops and vegetation exposure + impact on yield loss- Radiative forcing and CO2eq of SLCFs (GWP and GTP based)- Temperature trend for selected time horizons and emission trajectories of

pollutants and CO2

- Deposition of BC to the Arctic /Himalayas - Deposition of nitrogen and impacts on sensitive ecosystems

•Global Source - Receptor model for air pollutants, radiative forcing and deposition

•Simplified linear emission-concentration/forcing/deposition relations between regions

•Uses TM5-CTM output (2-way nested model, 1°x1° over multiple zoom regions)

TM5 2-way nested model grid

56 TM5-FASST source-receptor regions

TM5-FASST

Overlaps with a ranges of IAMs (e.g. IMAGE-MESSAGE-POLES)

The HTAP regional mask is fairly consistent

56 TM5-FASST source-receptor regions

TM5-FASST:

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1402468

101214

f(x) = 0.9461654302 x + 0.7072822726R² = 0.836298599119163

PM2.5, µg/m³

TM5 full modelTM

5 - F

ASS

T

y = 1.03x + 0.08R² = 0.9815

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25

30

35

40

45

15 25 35 45

TM5

-FA

SST

TM5 full model

O3PPB, µg/m³

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.60

0.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.6

f(x) = 0.9816511287 x + 0.007914524R² = 0.989618161231194

BC, µg/m³

TM5 full model

TM5

- FA

SST

HTAP 2 GAINS Global Emission Scenarios:• NFC: No-further-control: what if technology and legislation would

stagnate on current levels• CLE: Current legislation would be implemented (but no new policies

made)• MFR: Maximum Feasible Reduction (all currently known technology

implemented)

Timeframe: 2020-2030-2050

Example of HTAP policy relevant questions:

How would the regional pollution change due emission developments within the region compared to those outside for the given emission scenarios?

What would be the global benefit of progressive emission reduction within a specific region?

Function of atmospheric concentrations, population density and exposure-response functions

How would the regional pollution change due emission developments within the region compared to those outside for

the given emission scenarios?

China+ China+

India+

USA

Central Europe

Western Europe

ROW

Western Europe China+

India+

USA

Central Europe

Western Europe

ROW

USA China+

India+

USA

Central Europe

Western Europe

ROW

India+ China+

India+

USA

Central Europe

Western Europe

ROW

Where is it coming from?Change in Particulate Matter 2050 CLE - 2050 MFR

China+ China+

India+

USA

Central Europe

Western Europe

ROW

Western Europe China+

India+

USA

Central Europe

Western Europe

ROW

USA China+

India+

USA

Central Europe

Western Europe

ROW

India+ China+

India+

USA

Central Europe

Western Europe

ROW

Where is it coming from?O3 change by emission source region: 2050 CLE - 2050 MFR

If China would go MFR in 2030, and the rest of the world stays on CLE? Benefits for crops by reducing ozone!

Eastern AfricaNorthern AfricaSouthern AfricaWestern Africa

OceaniaChina+Japan

Korea RegionCentral Europe

Western EuropeCentral America

MexicoMiddle East

TurkeyCanada

USAKazachstan Region

RussiaUkraine Region

BrazilRest of South America

India+South Eastern Asia

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Crop yield benefit per capita

kg/person

Conclusions:

Preliminary results using TM5-FASST

Shows the potential of evaluating regional and global benefits of air pollution controls.

Health, crops, and climate impacts

HTAP 2 will provide updated and evaluated model results using ensembles of global and regional models=> improved estimate of impacts and involvement of modelers worldwide

These modeling tools provide the opportunity to evaluate additional scenarios and assumptions:

- country perspectives on emission reductions- a set of country perspectives- etc.

Extras

Change in direct forcing in 2030 due to China MFR and RoW CLE

Inorganic, direct (SO4,NO3,NH4)

BC, all

POM, direct

SO4, indirect

O3 (except from CH4)

O3 from CH4

CO2

CH4

N2O

Total

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

74

-36

10

85

-22

-34

0

-84

0

-7

Change in total instyantaneous forcing, mW/m²