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Gap Analysis in Jeb Bush’s Email and Social Network

Team Member: Yi Chun Chien (Nancy), Jing Fan, Pei yun Yeh, Tianmiao Zhou

Class : Text MiningProfessor : Yilu Zhou

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Jeb Bush

Jeb BushYounger Brother

George Bush Sr.Father

43rd U.S. president George BushOlder Brother

41st U.S. president

Governor of Florida (1999-2007)

Member of the Bush political families

Converted to Catholicism (Under his wife’s influence)

Speaks Spanish

Strongly supports nation's immigration laws

Close mentor to Marco Rubio (Also running for President 2016)

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• Open data

• Extract context

• Summarize Statistics

Data Collection

• Customized stop words

• Word Matrix• Delete redundancy

feature manually

Preprocessing

• Visualization

• K-Mean Clustering

Analysis

Purpose: (a) Find out which topic or field Jeb Bush cares the most from his email contents in 1999-2006 (b) compare the voters’ opinions from Twitter Why Jeb Bush released Email: “In the spirit of transparency, I am posting the emails of my governorship here” Total ~2.7 million mails (Average 949 a day!) Tools: Python and Weka

Email and Twitter Analysis

Email Analysis

4Email Count vs. Quarter over Years

Presidential Election1999 2000 2001 2002

2003 2004 2005 2006

Em

ail

C

ou

nt

Quarter

Presidential Election

1st and 2nd presidential election has different email amount

Em

ail

C

ou

nt

Quarter

Quarter

Quarter

Quarter

Quarter

Quarter

Quarter

Florida educational Performance issue

2nd Run Period

2nd Run Period

1st run Period

Email Count: Weekday vs. Weekend (a) Less mails on weekend (b) 2004 has different pattern than other years Compared to his 1st and 2nd run, the email amount increases from 409/day -> 1,283/day

1999 2000 2001 2002

2003 2004 2005 2006

Em

ail

C

ou

nt

Sunday ~ Saturday

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Sunday ~ Saturday

Sunday ~ Saturday

Sunday ~ Saturday

Sunday ~ Saturday

Sunday ~ Saturday

Sunday ~ Saturday

Sunday ~ Saturday

Em

ail

C

ou

nt

Word Clustering Result

1999

• Children - Florida• Schools - Governor• Education - Bill• Parents - Life

2000

• Gas - Children• Oil - Health• Draft - Law• OCS - Water

2001

• Gas - Water• Oil - Bill• Leasing - School • Ocs - Health

2002

• Everglades - Children • Monroe - Education• Protection - Family• Endangered - Manatees

2003

• Handicapped - Custody• Exhausted - Constitution • Dismantled - Protect • Murder - Judge

2004

• Sanctuary - Fight• Manatee Protection - Brother• Legislation - Respiratory • Inhabitants - Church

2005

• Education - Kathleen• Manatee - Secretary• Miami• Budget

2006

• Manatee - School • Protection - Children • Waters• Species

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Cluster 1

Cluster 2

Cluster 1

Cluster 2

Use K-mean clustering to group all key words into 2 clusters Education and Environment are the 2 hot topics

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Social Network Mining

• 1779 Tweets about Jeb Bush from Twitter

• Excel Format

Data Collection

• SPSS Text Analytics Tool• Customized library• Three Types: Positive,

Negative and Neutral

Preprocessing• Key Word Analysis

• Association Analysis

Sentiment Analysis

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Sentiment Analysis Result When people mention “president” in #JebBush, the word also associate strongly

with “brother” and “thank”

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Sentiment Analysis Result (Conti.) When people mention “gop” (Republican National Committee) in #JebBush, the word is

related greatly to “immigrants”

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Sentiment Analysis Result (Conti.) When people mention “jebbush” in #JebBush, the word also associates with many

negative words

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Social Media Result

Two typical hash tag: #NoMoreBush #StopHillary

Tweets show people do not like Jeb Bush and neither Hillary Clinton.

When people talked about Jeb Bush, they mentioned George Bush at the same time.

People prefer to criticize politicians than praise them

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Conclusion

Year1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Education

Governor

Education

Environment

Education

Environment

Education

Environment

Healthcare

Environment

President Education

Environment

Scandal

Education

Environment

2006

From Analysis Most of his email content match his later policy Has a powerful background but long way on his Presidential Election

Future Work Lexical analysis for Email (EX: pre-define keywords) Build larger library (In SPSS) Topic