Texas State Agency Business Administrators Association June 5, 2014 San Marcos, Texas Texas...

Texas State Agency Business Administrators

Association

June 5, 2014

San Marcos, Texas

Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

2

Growing States, 2000-2010

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population

3

Percent Change Due to

Year* PopulationNumerical

Change

AnnualPercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 49.65 50.35

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 54.94 45.06

2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 52.05 47.95

2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012

4

Total Estimated Population by County, 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates

Along and east of I-35: 40% of land 86% of population 92% of population growth (2011-2012)

Legend

POPESTIMATE2012

71-10,000

10,001-50,000

50,001-100,000

100,001-500,000

500,001-1,000,000

1,000,001-4,253,700

5

Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.

96 counties lost population over the two year period

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

popchg4201072012

LT 0

1-1,000

1,001-20,000

20,001-80,000

80,001-161,252

Of counties that lost population90% had net out migration47% had natural decline

6

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro AreasIncrease from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

Percent Increase

1. Midland, Texas 4.62. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7

3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6

4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4

5. Odessa, Texas 3.46. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3

7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.08. Casper, Wyo. 3.0

9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9

10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

7

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

NumericIncrease

1. Harris, Texas 80,005

2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764

3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644

4. Dallas, Texas 45,827

5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880

6. King, Wash. 35,838

7. Travis, Texas 34,381

8. Orange, Calif. 34,017

9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997

10. Clark, Nev. 32,833

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013

8

Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas, 1990-2012

mill

ions

Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed, www.pewresearch.org/hispanic

9Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014

10

Unemployment rate (percent) for Texas and

the United States, 2007-2013

Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Local area Unemployment Statistics Program, 2014.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

2

4

6

8

10

12

4.44.9

7.5

8.27.9

6.86.3

4.6

5.8

9.39.6

8.9

8.1

7.4

Texas United States

11

Percentage of Families Whose Income in the Past 12 Months is Below the Poverty Level, Texas 2006-2012

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201211.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

13.3%

12.8%

12.4%

13.4%

13.8%

14.4%

14.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year samples, 2006-2012

12

Household Income and Benefits, Texas, 2007-2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

13.8% 13.3%

38.3% 35.9%

40.3% 41.7%

7.5% 9.1%

GT $149K

$50-149k

$15-49k

LT $15k

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year samples, 2007-2012

13

Median Household Income (dollars), Texas, 2006-2012

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201242,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample, 2006-2012

14

Outstanding State Debt for 10 Most Populous States, 2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.Note: Texas debt outstanding from the Census Bureau differs from that reported by the Texas Bond Review Board. Population figures are 2013 Census estimates.

Georgia

Texas

North Caro

lina

Florid

a Ohio

Mich

igan

Pennsylva

nia

Californ

ia

New York

New Jerse

y $-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$1,34

1

$1,45

7

$1,88

4

$2,22

3 $2,67

3 $3,13

0

$3,54

4

$3,90

5

$6,86

6

$7,19

2

15

State of Texas Debt Per Capita Outstanding at Fiscal Year End: 10-Year Trend

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$1,101 $1,121 $1,154 $1,243

$1,381

$1,492

$1,600 $1,637 $1,596

$1,646

Dolla

rs

Sources: Texas Bond Review Board, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor StatisticsNote: Some debt issued before 2006 may not be reflected. Reflects debt in 2013 dollars divided by estimated population in the relevant year. Texas debt outstanding from the Texas Bond Review Board differs from that reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Some of this debt may be self-supporting, that is, paid in whole or in part with dedicated non-tax revenue, even when backed by a pledge of general revenue

20

Percent of Population Born in Texas, Counties, 2008-2012

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

BastropAustin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

PctNativeTXN

45-55%

56-60%

61-70%

71-80%

81-91%


21

Percent of Population that is Foreign Born, Texas Counties, 2008-2012


Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

PctFB

0-5%

6-10%

11-20%

21-30%

31-41%

22

Numeric change in Hispanic population, by county, 2000-2010

Numeric Change Hispanic 2000-2010nch_hsp0010

-1,200 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 5,000

5,001 - 15,000

15,001 - 25,000

25,001 - 56,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

23

Percent Hispanic, Texas Counties, 2007-2011Legend

tl_2013_us_state

PCT HISP 11 5YR

DP5_HC03_VC82

0-10%

11-20%

2-40%

41-75%

76-99%


24

Numeric change in Asian population, by county, 2000-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Numeric Change Asian 2000-2010nch_asi0010

-198 - 0

1 - 500

501 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 77,000

25

Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks Spanish at home and speaks English less than very well, Texas Counties, 2008-

2012Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

PctSpanEngLTVW

0-5%

5.1-10%

10.1-20%

20.1-35%

35.1-50%


26

Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks a language other than English at home, Texas Counties, 2008-2012


Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

PCTLngOthrEng

0-10%

11-20%

21-40%

41-60%

61-96%

27

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

BastropAustin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Percent of Households with at Least One Person Over the Age of 64 Years, Texas Counties, 2008-2012


Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

PctHHGT64

13-20%

21-30%

31-40%

41-50%

51-53%

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other

6%

His-panic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

29

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

30

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male NH White Female


31




100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic Female NH Black FemaleNH Asian Female NH Other Female


32




100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White FemaleHispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female


33

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

20422044

20462048

205020,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010

Migration Scenarios

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

34

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-WhiteNH-BlackHispanicNH-Other

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

35

Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011

Level of Educational Attainment

Percent of persons aged 25 years and older

State Ranking

High school diploma or equivalency or greater

81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA

and MS)Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.

36

Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009

19%

6%

71%

3%

67%

8%

15%

9%

Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.Less Than High School

College and Greater

Trends in Educational Attainment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201150%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

38

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using

Trended Rates, Texas

Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

2011 ACS

2030 Constant

2030 Trended

Educational Attainment

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Labo

r For

ce

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

39

Demographics and Destiny

40

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

mailto:[email protected]

Texas State Agency Business Administrators Association June 5, 2014 San Marcos, Texas Texas...

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