Texas Land Market Developments -- 2016 · 25.08.2016 · Generated by the SAS System ('Local',...
Transcript of Texas Land Market Developments -- 2016 · 25.08.2016 · Generated by the SAS System ('Local',...
Texas Land Market Developments -- 2016Charles E. Gilliland Ph.D.Research Economist Real Estate Center Texas A&M University
Herbert’s Taco HutNew Braunfels, TexasAugust 25th 2016
Current Land Market Scuttlebutt
• Prices up in most markets
• Energy areas weaker
• Farming areas see prices rise, volume fall
• Mixed signals
• Get ‘em while they are left!
Texas Rural Land Price Per Acre
Four Quarter Moving Average Total Acreage Sold
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:21:58 AM
Texas Rural Land
Texas Rural Land StatewideFour Quarter Moving Average Total Dollar Volume of Sales
Texas Rural LandStatewideFour Quarter Moving Average Total Dollar Volume of Sales
Texas Rural Land Real Price and Volume of Sales
Four Quarter Moving Average Price Per AcrePanhandle - South Plains
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:22:16 AM
Four Quarter Moving Average Price Per AcrePanhandle - South Plains
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:22:29 AM
Texas Rural Land
Four Quarter Moving Average Total Dollar Volume of Sales -- Panhandle - South Plains
Four Quarter Moving Average Total Acreage SoldPanhandle - South Plains
Four Quarter Moving Average Price Per AcreTexas Rural Land -- Austin - Waco - Hill Country
Four Quarter Moving Average Price Per AcreAustin - Waco - Hill Country
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:23:05 AM
Texas Rural Land
Four Quarter Moving Average Total Dollar Volume of SalesAustin - Waco - Hill Country
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:24:04 AM
Four Quarter Moving Average Total Acreage SoldAustin - Waco - Hill Country
Latest Regional Quarterly Results
• Panhandle & So. Plains
• Far West Texas
• West Texas
• Northeast Texas
• Gulf Coast & Brazos Bottom
• South Texas
• Austin – Waco – Hill Country
Year to year Quarterly Dollar volume
+5.5% -2.2% -27%
-43.5% -34.7% -41.3%
+9.5% +2.9% +8.5%
+8.13% + 3.0 +3.5%
-0.4% -0.7% +11.0%
-3.5% +0.4% +27.6%
+8.1% +2.4% -11.1%
Land Market Issues
• Economy
• Property rights • Coyote Lake Ranch v City of
Lubbock • Duarte Nursery v Corps of
Engineers
• Election
• Oil prices will go • Up • Down more
Economy
Economy
Economy
Economy
Property Rights – Coyote Lake Ranch v City of Lubbocck
• City bought water rights in 1953
• Has 7 existing wells
• Wanted to expand – mowed grass to begin
• Supreme Court rules that Accommodation Doctrine Applies
• Landowners celebrating
• Oil and gas lawyers in a tizzy
Property Rights – Duarte Nursery v Corps of Engineers
Property Rights – Duarte Nursery v Corps of Engineers
• WOTUS
• 450 acre pasture
• Converted to wheat
• Plowing exemption
• …relocated earthen material into ridges • Unlawfully raising the elevation of the soil in the wetlands• “fill material”
Property Rights – Duarte Nursery v Corps of Engineers
• Court • Tillage wasn’t an “established ongoing” farming activity
• Changing the use requires a permit from the Corps
• Pacific Legal Foundation continuing the fight
Election
Forecast Model System Elasticity
• System Elasticity
• Long Term Elasticity
• Percent Change in Response
for a 1 Percent Change in the variable
• Ceteris Paribus
Price Quantity
Oil price + 0.251 - 0.194
Personalincome + 0.403 + 0.595
Oil Prices
• Oil prices 2018 • Down more• Up
Oil Price Forecast Low High
35 -9% -30% +17%
60 -5% -25% +19%