Test Case: Evacuating Winthrop’s Elderly Population University of Massachusetts

A Solution to the Decision-making Process: GIS-based System for Winthrop's First Responders and Decision Makers During a Flood Evacuation

Test Case: Evacuating Winthrop’s Elderly Population

University of MassachusettsCollege of Management

Honors ThesisResearcher: Michele N. Karas

May 23, 2008 Presentation

Winthrop, Massachusetts Coastal Community Peninsula of 1.6 square miles 7 miles of shoreline

Demographic Characteristics: Total Population

18,303 + 20,000

Elderly > 65 3,024; 16.5% + 4,177; 22.8%

(US Census Bureau 2000)

Emergency Management

Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency State EOC; National Guard; MDC Officials 1990s changed to

‘Emergency Management’ National level

MEMA FEMA

Planning on a Regional Level Tragedies of 9/11 November 2002, Homeland Security

Act of 2002 January 2006, US Homeland Security

Secretary Michael Chertoff – importance of regional cooperation

UASI (Urban Area Security Initiatives) Metro-Boston Homeland Security and

City of Boston’s Mayor Coalition

Winthrop’sEmergency Management Agency

DIRECTOR

SAFETY OFFICER

PUBLICINFORMATION

OFFICER

LIASION OFFICER

PLANNING

LOGISTICS

OPERATIONS

FINANCEADMINISTRATON

FIRE RESCUE

EMERGENCY

MEDICAL SERVICES

LAW ENFORCEMENT

PUBLIC WORKS

CARE & SHELTER

RESOURCE UNIT

SITUATION UNIT

DOCUMENTATION UNIT

DEMOBILIZATION UNIT

FACILITIES COORD.

TRANSPORT.SERVICES

INFORMATION SYSTEMS

COMMUNICATIONS

SUPPLY & FOOD UNIT

PERSONNEL

TIME UNIT

PROCUREMENT UNIT

COMPENSATION & CLAIMS UNIT

COST UNIT

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

URBAN SEARCH & RESCUE

TRAFFIC CONTROL

EVACUATION

FORCE PROTECTION

ANIMAL CONTROL

ENGINEERING

DEBRIS REMOVAL

Decision Makers

Emergency Management Director Incident Commander: Fire Chief ‘advises

& informs TM of incident’ Town Manager – declares ‘state of

emergency’ & PIO

First Responders Police Fire DPW EMT BOH IT

Steps to Research Literature Review Hands-on Research & Analysis/Tools:

Course work within the Science & Math College, since Jan 08’:

EEOS265 – Computer Applications Geography EEOS261 –Statistics for Earth & Geographic

Sciences EEOS381 – Applications of GIS

Methodology GIS Data Model Overview

Reality

Conceptual Model

Logical Model

Physical Model

Human-oriented

Computer-oriented

Increasing Abstraction

Methodology: Reality Winthrop Coastal Storms Flooding Elderly residents Roadways Shelters – location and accessibility Evacuation routes - existing Elevation Storm Surge

Spatial Analysis: Answering “What if” scenarios Mapping where things are Mapping density Finding what’s near by Patterns Normative Process:

Develop or prescribe new or better designs (e.g. evacuation route)

My Data Model: Objective Choose the best route of egress for

evacuation route, Identify the area of residency of

elderly population, Within Winthrop: Identify shelter in

place and critical evacuation areas, Outside Winthrop: Identify shelters

Data Collection Raster -

Primary: Ortho/digital aerial photos Secondary: DEM

Vector – points/lines/polygons Secondary: shape files, data layers, tables,

database

Commonwealth of MA - MassGIS – Office of Geographic and Environmental Information (Exec. Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs www.mass/gov/mgis

http://www.mass/gov/mgis

Software used: Geodatabase & Map project ESRI: ArcGIS

Desktop Version 9 ArcMap

v9.2 ArcCatalog

v9.2 ArcToolbox

v9.2

Winthrop’s Geodatabase:Geodatabase Feature Classes:

Town polygon Town survey (lines) Storm Surge Roads (EOT) shapefile Census 2000 Block Group data Schools shapefile (points) Town Halls shapefile Police Departments shapefile Fire Departments shapefile Hospital & Long Care Facilities

shapefile

Other data/Symbology: Analysis Data Used:

DEM Ortho/aerial

ElevationVALUE

-59 - 0 meter below sea level

> 0 to < 1 meter above sea level

> 1 to 2 meters above sea level


> 3 - 4 meters above sea level

> 4 to 5 metesr above sea level


> 6 meters above sea level

Hurricane SurgesCategory

Cat 1: 4 to 5 ft above normal




Cat 5: > 18 ft above normal

Steps to Identify Winthrop Evacuation Route Boston’s

evacuation route Winthrop’s major

roadways Winthrop’s points

of exit

Defining Winthrop’s evacuation route Fire Chief

knowledge & history

Past storms

Defining Winthrop’s Elderly Population Census 2000

Blocks data Group > 65 yrs. Sub-group > 80 yrs.

WINTHROP

EASTBOSTON

R E V E R E

µ0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.40.05

Miles Author: Michele N. KarasMay 15, 2008

WinthropWinthropM assachusettsM assachusetts

Elder PopulationElder PopulationOverOver

65 years65 years

Winthrop's Elderly Over 65 yrsAreas by per person count

1 - 10 persons

11 - 20 persons

21 - 30 persons

31 - 40 persons

41 - 50 persons

51 - 60 persons

61 - 70 persons

> 71 persons

One Red & one Green Area:

Review closer

One Blue, one Green & one Yellow Area: in an area of categorized as > 6 ft above sea level. Persons in this area can be Sheltered in Place.

Shelter in place

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Crest Avenue

Winthrop Shore Drive

Sagamore Avenue

Summit Avenue

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Cliff Avenue

Sewall Avenue

Highland

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Nahant Avenue

Temple Street

Floyd Street

Pond Street

Sagamore Avenue

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Author: Michele N. KarasMay 16, 2008

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S hel ter i n P l aceShel ter i n P l ace

Pleasant Street

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Johnson Avenue

Adams Street

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Seymour Street

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Seaview Avenue

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Frances Street

Dix Street

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Prescott Street

James Avenue

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Jefferson Street

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South Avenue

Sheryl Lane

Eleanor Court

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Pleasant Street

Winthrop Street

Pauline Street

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Plumm

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Buchanan Street

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µAuthor: Michele N. Karas

May 16, 2008


0 0.03 0.060.015 Miles

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Critical Evacuation Area

WINTHROP

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Pauline Street

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Herm

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Centre Street

Putnam Street

Fremont Street

Woodside Avenue

Buchanan Street

Brookf ie ld R

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Jefferson Street

Villa Ave

nue

Belcher Street

Somerset Avenue

Ocean View Street

Adams Street

Beal St re et

George Street

Read S

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Bow

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et

Marshall S

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Madison Avenue

Vine

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Wadsworth Avenue

Putnam Place

Short Street

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James Avenue

Ingleside Avenue

Buckthorn Terrace

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Waldemar Avenue

Burrill Terrace

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Pleasant Street

Win

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Pauline Street

Lincoln Street

Wa lden S

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Hermon Street

Centre Street

Putnam Street

Fremont Street

Woodside Avenue

Buchanan Street

Brookf ie ld R

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Jefferson Street

Vill a A

ve

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Belcher Street

Somerse

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nue

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Adams Street

Beal St ree t

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tr eet

Hagm

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George Street

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Bow

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t r eet

Madison Avenue

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Enfield Road

Putnam Place

Yard Drive

James Avenue

Ingleside Avenue

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0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.080.01Miles

Emegency Operations Center

Analysis: Schools for Shelters within Winthrop High School Middle School Fort Banks Elementary Cummings Elementary

Criteria Location Accessibility

Discarded School Shelter Sites High School Middle School

Location Neither ADA Compliant

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Franklin Street

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Centre Street

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Taylor Street

George Street

Kennedy Road

Summit Avenue

Buchanan Street

Harvard Street

Wadsworth Avenue

Atlantic Street

Coral Avenue

Hadassah Way

Ocean V

iew W

ay

Trident Avenue

Hawthorn Avenue

Myrtle Street

Mermaid Avenue

Shirley Park

Governors Drive

Ches

ter A

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Sea Foam Avenue

Wave WayYard Drive

Winthrop Street

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Veterans Road

Shirley Street

Reve

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Main Street

Winthrop Street

Win

thro

p S

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Cro

ss S

treet

Bow

doin

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River Road

Locust Street

Main Street

Almont Street

Winthrop S

treet

Pays

on S

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Ocean View Street

Franklin Street

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Cresc

ent S

treet

George Street

Summit Avenue

Buchanan Street

Harvard Stree t

Atlantic Street

Coral Avenue

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Hawthorn Avenue

Myrtle Street

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ain

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Arthur T. Cummings Elementary School

Pauline Street

Fremont Street

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Putnam Street

Jefferson Street

Belcher StreetW

oodside Avenue

Enfield Road

Somerset Avenue

Ingleside Avenue

Wheelock S

treet

Edgehill Road

Putnam Place

Bartl

ett R

oad

Madison Avenue

Buchanan Street

Burrill Terrace

Pauline Street

Winthrop Street

Fremont Street

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t re e t

Putnam Street

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Jefferson Street

Belcher Street

Hermon Street

Woodside Avenue

Enfield Road

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Waldemar Avenue

Edgehill Road

Putnam Place

Yard Drive

Bartl

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Palmyra Street

Cot

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Par

k R

oad

Buchanan Street

George Street

Burrill Terrace

Shelters in Winthrop Cummings School

WINTHROP

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Pleasant Street

Washington Avenue

Pauline Street

Winthrop Street

Lincoln Street

Bow

doi n

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Stre

et

River Road

Wal den S

treet

Buchanan Street

Somerse

t Ave

nue W

oodside Avenue

Bart

lett

Roa

d

Brookfield Road

Hermon Street

Putnam StreetC

ircui t Road

Ocean View Street

Fremont Street

Cot

tage

Par

k R

oad

Chester A

venue

Ingleside AvenueEdgehill Road

Waldemar Avenue

Enfield Road

Sarg

ent S

treet

V illa A

venue

Belcher Street

Palmyra Street

Adams Street

Cora S

t ree t

Hagman R

oad

George Street

Vine

Ave

nue

Madison Avenue

Belle

vue

Aven

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et

North Avenue

Wadsworth Avenue

Tho r

n ton

Par

k

Bea l Str eet

Wheelock S

treet

Putnam Place

Plumm

er Avenue

James Avenue

South Avenue

Marshall S

treet

Rea d S

tree t

Lincoln Terrace

Yard Drive

Oce

an V

iew

Way

Wi ll

iam

s S

treet

Buck

thorn Terrace

Burrill Terrace

Viking

Gar

dens

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e

EOC

Fort Banks

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William P. Gorman/Fort Banks Elementary

Kennedy Road

Golden Drive

Almont Street

Argyle Street

Locust Street

Reve

re S

treet

Overlo

ok D

rive

Summit Avenue

Shirley Street

Governors Drive

Taylor Street

UV145

Revere Street

Reve

re S

treet

Shirley Street

Kennedy Road

Golden Drive

Almont Street

Argyle Street

Locust Street

Bayo

u St

reet

Overlo

ok D

rive

Summit Avenue

Sagamore Avenue

Governors Driveµ



cW Town Halls

ÅÆÃ Schools

c< Fire Stations

ca Police Stations 0 0.03 0.060.015 Miles

DPW Bldg/Yard

Transport to Shelters Outside of Winthrop High elevations Close to Winthrop Facilities:

Care for elderly Food Medicine Amenities

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BOSTON

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C H E L S E A

WINTHROP

WINTHROPLogan Airport

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H o s p i t a l sH o s p i t a l s&&

L o n g Te r m L o n g Te r m C a r e F a c i l i t i e sC a r e F a c i l i t i e s

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0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.60.2Miles


Winthrop Evacuation Through East Boston

Boston Evacuation Route

Elevation-59 - 0 ft below sea level

> 0 to < 1 ft above sea level

> 1 to 2 ft above sea level


> 3 - 4 ft above sea level



> 6 ft above sea level

®v Hospitals

## Assisted Living Facility

"" Nursing Home

!! Rest Home

Belle Isle Inlet Bridge

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Locationsin & around

Winthrop & Boston

Don Orione Home111 Orient Ave., East Boston

Quigley Memorial Hospital91 Crest Ave, Chelsea

Soldiers Home91 Crest Ave, Chelsea

Q & A

Thank you.

Test Case: Evacuating Winthrop’s Elderly Population University of Massachusetts

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Transcript of Test Case: Evacuating Winthrop’s Elderly Population University of Massachusetts