Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

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Manpower - Part 2Manpower - Part 2

• AvailabilityAvailability– SurveySurvey– Comparison of Needs and AvailabilityComparison of Needs and Availability– Caveats/to-do listCaveats/to-do list

• Some ideas on how to bridge gapsSome ideas on how to bridge gaps• Conclusions on 2005-2007Conclusions on 2005-2007• Conclusions on 2008-2009Conclusions on 2008-2009

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

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Manpower surveyManpower survey

• Spreadsheet developed as first stage in DØ Spreadsheet developed as first stage in DØ 2005-2007 MOU2005-2007 MOU(1.)(1.)

• Request FTERequest FTE(2.)(2.) effort dedicated to DØ effort dedicated to DØ– Faculty, scientist, postdoc, studentFaculty, scientist, postdoc, student

• Request details of institutional commitments Request details of institutional commitments • Notes:Notes:

1.1. 2008-2009 “optional” - not part of MOU2008-2009 “optional” - not part of MOU2.2. FTE FTE fraction of fraction of totaltotal working week. working week. NOT: fraction of research time; NOT fraction of 40 hour week!NOT: fraction of research time; NOT fraction of 40 hour week!

• Same spreadsheet used also by CDFSame spreadsheet used also by CDF• Responses so far from: Responses so far from:

– 71/77 DØ institutes71/77 DØ institutes– 50/57 CDF institutes50/57 CDF institutes

• reasonable extrapolations made for missing institutesreasonable extrapolations made for missing institutes

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

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Results of survey: 2005-2007Results of survey: 2005-2007

- Fall off for both US and non-US roughly consistent - Fall off for both US and non-US roughly consistent with HEPAP surveywith HEPAP survey

Expt.Expt. DØDØ CDFCDF

YearYear 20052005 20062006 20072007 20052005 20062006 20072007

non-USnon-US 100%100% 93%93% 74%74% 100%100% 89%89% 75%75%

USUS 100%100% 87%87% 69%69% 100%100% 91%91% 73%73%

all.exptall.expt 100%100% 90%90% 72%72% 100%100% 90%90% 74%74%

HEPAPHEPAP 100%100% 84%84% 66%66% 100%100% 88%88% 69%69%

FTEsFTEs 463463 417417 332332 434434 392392 319319

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

4Comparison of FTE availability Comparison of FTE availability and needs: 2007and needs: 2007

DØDØ CDFCDF

““Service”Service” 165165 126126

““Core” physicsCore” physics 8686 8181

Total needs 1:Total needs 1: (service*2)(service*2) 330330 252252

Total needs 2: Total needs 2: (service+“core”) (service+“core”) 251 251 207207

Available FTEAvailable FTE 332332 319319

Available-needs 1:Available-needs 1: 22 6767Available-needs 2:Available-needs 2: 8181 112112

Sufficient effort to operate experiments and support a broad physics programme

Assumes people spend 50% of time on “service” and 50% doing “physics”

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

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Caveats/To-do listCaveats/To-do list

• Availability is self reported whereas Availability is self reported whereas needs are bottoms-up estimateneeds are bottoms-up estimate

• Detailed analysis of “service” needs Detailed analysis of “service” needs versus commitments not yet doneversus commitments not yet done

• More careful checks needed to ensure More careful checks needed to ensure “collaboration members” have been “collaboration members” have been defined consistently in counting needs defined consistently in counting needs and availabilityand availability

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

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2007 Comparison with HEPAP2007 Comparison with HEPAP

CDFCDF HEPAP HEPAP CDFCDF

DØDØ HEPAP HEPAP DØDØ

Online+offlineOnline+offline 9191 9393 110110 168168

AlgorithmsAlgorithms 3535 3838 5555 7070

Physics Physics 1: “core”-only1: “core”-only2: 2: “service” “service”3: “available” 3: “available” from MOUfrom MOU

8181126126193193

2322328686

165165167167

175175

TotalTotal1:1:2:2:3:3:

207207252252319319

363363251251330330332332

417417

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

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Ideas to reduce needed effort and Ideas to reduce needed effort and increase availabilityincrease availability

• Experiment Operations:Experiment Operations:– More automation (control room and offline DQ)More automation (control room and offline DQ)– Merge shiftsMerge shifts– Professional shift crewProfessional shift crew– Continuity of experts for critical systemsContinuity of experts for critical systems

• Computing OperationsComputing Operations– Increase (SAM-)Grid development and support for Increase (SAM-)Grid development and support for

deploymentdeployment– Common support of commonly used infrastructure by Common support of commonly used infrastructure by

computing professionalscomputing professionals• a good strategy, but not always appropriatea good strategy, but not always appropriate

– loss of experiment-specific personnel has hurt loss of experiment-specific personnel has hurt experimentsexperiments

– CD support for experiment-specific applications CD support for experiment-specific applications needed alsoneeded also

• General:General:– Increased visitor budgetIncreased visitor budget

• for all levels (students -> professors)for all levels (students -> professors)

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

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Special role of Fermilab staffSpecial role of Fermilab staff

• Lost Fermilab staff represent a Lost Fermilab staff represent a significant part of the current problems significant part of the current problems facing the experimentsfacing the experiments– In terms of lost FTEs and lost expertiseIn terms of lost FTEs and lost expertise

• approx 20 FTEs per experiment over past 3 approx 20 FTEs per experiment over past 3 yearsyears

• CDF and DØ need to add Fermilab staff in CDF and DØ need to add Fermilab staff in carefully targeted areascarefully targeted areas

• At least theAt least the service contributions service contributions of of currentcurrent Fermilab groups cannot be Fermilab groups cannot be allowed to leak away as has happened in allowed to leak away as has happened in the pastthe past

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

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Conclusions on 2005-2007 estimatesConclusions on 2005-2007 estimates

• Extrapolating manpower needs & availability from Extrapolating manpower needs & availability from where we are now to 2007:where we are now to 2007:– Subject to large uncertaintiesSubject to large uncertainties

• refined understanding neededrefined understanding needed– in particular, detailed analysis of “service” in particular, detailed analysis of “service”

needs versus commitments needs versus commitments – But can form the basis for a planBut can form the basis for a plan

• ideas to improve situation taking shapeideas to improve situation taking shape– Taking care of 2007 needs is the current main focusTaking care of 2007 needs is the current main focus

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

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Results for 2009Results for 2009

Calculated from Calculated from 2007 MOU FTEs 2007 MOU FTEs using HEPAP ratio using HEPAP ratio for 2009/2007for 2009/2007

Expt.Expt. DØDØ CDFCDF

Available Available FTEsFTEs

non-USnon-US 101101 7575

USUS 9999 116116

all.exptall.expt 200200 191191

Needed Needed FTEsFTEs

1: service*21: service*2 248248 2222222: 2: service+coreservice+core 190190 175175

Available -Available -needed needed FTEsFTEs

1: -48 -31

2: 10 16

- Barely enough effort to deliver “core” physics programme- Need to find more effort or greater efficiency to deliver a broader physics programe

Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK

11

Conclusions on 2008-2009 estimatesConclusions on 2008-2009 estimates• Current extrapolations suggest a significant, but solvable, Current extrapolations suggest a significant, but solvable,

gap between needs and availabilitygap between needs and availability• Extrapolating from what we know now to 2008-2009 is Extrapolating from what we know now to 2008-2009 is

largely guess work until:largely guess work until:– Tevatron achieves design pbar accumulation & electron coolingTevatron achieves design pbar accumulation & electron cooling– Experiments demonstrate timely publication of 1-2 fbExperiments demonstrate timely publication of 1-2 fb-1-1 dataset dataset

• achieving required physics performanceachieving required physics performance• maybe interesting hints?maybe interesting hints?

– 2007 manpower needs and availability demonstrated to be 2007 manpower needs and availability demonstrated to be realisticrealistic

– Believable schedule for LHC accelerator announcedBelievable schedule for LHC accelerator announced• We need the answers to these questions before deciding: We need the answers to these questions before deciding:

– Whether or not to run the Tevatron in 2008-2009Whether or not to run the Tevatron in 2008-2009– Whether or not the experiments will have enough manpower to Whether or not the experiments will have enough manpower to

deliver the physics deliver the physics • But what we But what we dodo know now about 2008-2009 is: know now about 2008-2009 is:

– Great physics potentialGreat physics potential– Hardware in great shapeHardware in great shape– By working together, the funding agencies, Fermilab and the By working together, the funding agencies, Fermilab and the

collaborations can solve the effort gapcollaborations can solve the effort gap– It would be crazy to do things now that would take the option of It would be crazy to do things now that would take the option of

2008-2009 away!2008-2009 away!