Terrorism: Effects, Terrorism: Effects, Recovery, PreventionRecovery, Prevention

Dustin Maddy, HunWen Tao, Dustin Maddy, HunWen Tao, Colin WheelerColin Wheeler

Case Studies: Terrorism Case Studies: Terrorism

Tokyo Sarin Gas Attacks Tokyo Sarin Gas Attacks 3/20/19953/20/1995

September 11September 11thth Attack on the Attack on the U.S.U.S.

Atocha Station Bombings in Atocha Station Bombings in Madrid 3/11/2004Madrid 3/11/2004

London Underground Bombings London Underground Bombings 7/7/20057/7/2005

Tokyo: The SettingTokyo: The Setting

City:City:-Densely populated-Densely populated-Transit oriented-Transit oriented-Low crime -Low crime

Aum:Aum:Matsumoto incident Matsumoto incident

June 27, 1994June 27, 1994Botulin toxin Botulin toxin attempts ’90, attempts ’90, ’93’93

Monday, March 20, 1995Monday, March 20, 1995

7:30 – 8:00 a.m.7:30 – 8:00 a.m. 5 men board 5 5 men board 5 trains with sarin trains with sarin and umbrellasand umbrellas

Each man releases Each man releases sarin, meets sarin, meets getaway cargetaway car

12 killed, 500 to 12 killed, 500 to 1000 hospitalized1000 hospitalized

Emergency ResponseEmergency Response

Subway Authority Subway Authority kept trains kept trains runningrunning

Hospitals turned Hospitals turned victims awayvictims away

One hour of One hour of emergency calls emergency calls before threat before threat understoodunderstood

Effects On PolicyEffects On Policy

Changes madeChanges made

……in the U.S.in the U.S.

Japan not worried Japan not worried – Asahara – Asahara caught, Aum caught, Aum Shinrikyo under Shinrikyo under heavy heavy surveillancesurveillance

September 11September 11thth : Background : Background

Hijacking: Not a Hijacking: Not a new conceptnew concept

Hijacking was Hijacking was usually for usually for Escape or Escape or ExtortionExtortion

Air Marshals:Air Marshals:• 1987: ~4001987: ~400• 2001: 332001: 33

September 11thSeptember 11th

19 Hijackers19 Hijackers 4 Jetliners4 Jetliners Small WeaponsSmall Weapons Airplanes to Airplanes to Guided MissilesGuided Missiles

Landmark TargetsLandmark Targets ~3000 ~3000 Casualties, Casualties, mostly civiliansmostly civilians

Sept. 11Sept. 11thth Aftermath Aftermath

PanicPanic Economic DeclineEconomic Decline Flight BanFlight Ban Increase in Increase in SecuritySecurity

Response to Sept. 11thResponse to Sept. 11th

Taliban in Taliban in AfghanistanAfghanistan

Pre-Emptive WarPre-Emptive War Iraq?Iraq?

• PreventionPrevention• LiberationLiberation• OilOil

4 years later, 4 years later, is Air Travel is Air Travel safer? Does it safer? Does it need to be?need to be?

Madrid: BackgroundMadrid: Background

March 11, 2004 – As Spaniards are March 11, 2004 – As Spaniards are gearing up for the Prime Ministerial gearing up for the Prime Ministerial election later in the week, ten bombs election later in the week, ten bombs explode on four packed commuter trains at explode on four packed commuter trains at Madrid’s busiest station (Atocha) during Madrid’s busiest station (Atocha) during morning rush hour.morning rush hour.

191 killed, 1,500 wounded.191 killed, 1,500 wounded. Police carry out three “controlled” Police carry out three “controlled”

explosions.explosions.

The Blame GameThe Blame Game Immediate response of Spanish Immediate response of Spanish

government (Aznar) is to name ETA government (Aznar) is to name ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna) as culprits of (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna) as culprits of attacks. attacks.

About 75 people, mainly Moroccan About 75 people, mainly Moroccan nationals arrested, 23 remain in custody.nationals arrested, 23 remain in custody.

Spain names an Islamist extremist group, Spain names an Islamist extremist group, the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group as the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group as the main focus of the Madrid investigation.the main focus of the Madrid investigation.

Attempted attack of the AVE followed on Attempted attack of the AVE followed on April 2April 2ndnd, but was unsuccessful., but was unsuccessful.

Political FalloutPolitical Fallout Spain’s Socialist Party wins a surprise Spain’s Socialist Party wins a surprise

victory in the country’s general election.victory in the country’s general election. Party leader, Jose Luis Zapatero, who had Party leader, Jose Luis Zapatero, who had

previously condemned the war in Iraq now previously condemned the war in Iraq now threatens to pull Spanish troops out of the threatens to pull Spanish troops out of the country.country.

April, 2004 – All troops in Iraq are April, 2004 – All troops in Iraq are withdrawn.withdrawn.

Effects on Transportation PolicyEffects on Transportation Policy Shortly after the bombings, the EU created Shortly after the bombings, the EU created

the post of counterterrorism coordinator to the post of counterterrorism coordinator to facilitate cooperation among European facilitate cooperation among European governments.governments.

Proposals:Proposals: Fingerprint and DNA database and Fingerprint and DNA database and

biometric passportsbiometric passports Common arrest warrantCommon arrest warrant Make extradition of suspects easierMake extradition of suspects easier Increased use of cameras and security Increased use of cameras and security

personnel personnel Higher rate of border trafficking (Spain)Higher rate of border trafficking (Spain)

Madrid: One Year LaterMadrid: One Year Later

Commuter rates Commuter rates holding steady.holding steady.

Few visible Few visible changes made in changes made in policy.policy.

Did terrorism Did terrorism prevail? prevail? Reaction versus Reaction versus prevention prevention argument. Can it argument. Can it be stopped?be stopped?

London: A Model for European London: A Model for European Reaction?Reaction?

British Transport Police in conjunction British Transport Police in conjunction with parliament examine rail security with parliament examine rail security measures.measures.

Already strong foundations dealing with Already strong foundations dealing with IRA extremists.IRA extremists.

High-profile policingHigh-profile policing Increased canine unitsIncreased canine units CCTVCCTV Enhanced covert explosives test programEnhanced covert explosives test program Monitoring vehicles entering car parksMonitoring vehicles entering car parks

July 7July 7thth

Series of coordinated bomb attacks carried Series of coordinated bomb attacks carried out on London Underground and bus out on London Underground and bus system. 52 deaths are tallied.system. 52 deaths are tallied.

Many disregard attacks as suicide related.Many disregard attacks as suicide related. Intelligence is slow to surface.Intelligence is slow to surface. Explosive devices are nearly identical to Explosive devices are nearly identical to

those used in Madrid.those used in Madrid. Within a week, four British citizens are Within a week, four British citizens are

identified as culprits.identified as culprits. Links to Al QaedaLinks to Al Qaeda

Jean Charles de Menezes (July 23)Jean Charles de Menezes (July 23)

The Madrid-London ConnectionThe Madrid-London Connection

Time of attacks: Time of attacks: Elections and Elections and OlympicsOlympics

Purpose of Al-Purpose of Al-QaedaQaeda

Above-Below Above-Below ground nodes.ground nodes.

Transit SafetyTransit Safety

Reaction vs. PreventionReaction vs. PreventionAt what cost?At what cost?

Should policy focus on Should policy focus on passenger safety or passenger safety or terrorism prevention?terrorism prevention?

London: $1.4 billion London: $1.4 billion lost by attacklost by attack

U.S. Stock prices U.S. Stock prices plummeted $1.2 trillion plummeted $1.2 trillion immediately after 9/11immediately after 9/11

U.S. -> 2% of funds U.S. -> 2% of funds allocated for transit allocated for transit security since 9/11 goes security since 9/11 goes to ground to ground transportation.transportation.

U.S. spent $11 billion U.S. spent $11 billion in 2002-03 on aviation in 2002-03 on aviation security, $115 million security, $115 million in 2003-04 on public in 2003-04 on public transportationtransportation

““Yes I love Technology!”Yes I love Technology!” What role can What role can

technology play in technology play in defending terrorism defending terrorism aimed at aimed at transportation transportation

systems?systems? Ground transit vs. Ground transit vs.

maritime/air safetymaritime/air safety Examples: chemical sensors, Examples: chemical sensors,

mandatory metal detectors, mandatory metal detectors, fingerprint screening vis a fingerprint screening vis a vis entry onto trains [] vis entry onto trains [] more conventional methods?more conventional methods?

Preventative MeasuresPreventative Measures Seek out Terrorist Seek out Terrorist cells worldwidecells worldwide

Re-structure layout Re-structure layout of cities of cities (pedestrian (pedestrian friendly)friendly)

Smaller, high-Smaller, high-frequency forms of frequency forms of traveltravel

Rider RegistrationRider Registration Safety vs. Freedom Safety vs. Freedom (e.g. Patriot Act)(e.g. Patriot Act)

Should we prepare for Should we prepare for terrorism, or merely terrorism, or merely react when it hits?react when it hits?

Should emergency Should emergency response distinguish response distinguish between natural between natural phenomena and terrorism?phenomena and terrorism?

Are the transportation Are the transportation systems we have now systems we have now acceptable for acceptable for minimizing the effects minimizing the effects of a terrorist attack?of a terrorist attack?

Which do you value more, Which do you value more, passenger safety or passenger safety or protection from protection from terrorism?terrorism?