1. 1. World Politics Since 1945 Week 20 TERRORISM Sebastiano Sali20 March 2014
2. 2. OUTLINE Definitions: WHAT is terrorism and WHO is a terrorist? Narratives: NEW terrorism vs OLD terrorism (really?) Reactions: COUNTER or ANTI terrorism?
3. 3. DEFINITIONS US Gov: premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against non- combatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents. US DoD: The calculated use of of unlawful violence or threat of unlawful violence to inculcate fear, intended to coerce or to intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit of goals that are generally political, religious, or ideological. US State Dept: Premeditated politically-motivated violence perpetrated against non-combatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience. FBI: Terrorism is the unlawful use of force and violence against persons s or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in the furtherance or political or social objectives. UN: Acts intended to cause death or serious bodily harm to civilians or non- combatants, when the purpose of such an act, by its nature or context, is to intimidate a population, or to compel a government or an international organisation to do or abstain from doing an act.
4. 4. According to Schmid and Jongman there are of terrorism and they have (and this was 1988!) A little more recently, in 2004, Weinberg, Padahzur and Hirsch-Hoefler examined 3 major academic journals: they found 55 articles with of terrorism
5. 5. No panic! Lets try to keep it simple
6. 6. The use of violence and intimidation in the pursuit of political aim (The Oxford Dictionary of English) , frightful fact, or terrible happening (Dizionario Latino Olivetti) THREAT = to harm something done or not done (The Oxford Dictionary of English)
7. 7. NARRATIVES NEW TERRORISM OLD TERRORISM
8. 8. Martyrdom Suicide bombers Hashishiyyin Tamil Tigers New Terrorism Old Terrorism
9. 9. Religion or Politics? With the end of the CW religion is the only ideology left The Hindu Thugs New Terrorism Old Terrorism
10. 10. Spread of political Islam Withdrawal of foreigners from holy places Restoration of the Caliphate Elimination of the state of Israel Expulsion of the non-Jewish people from the Roman province of Judea (Zealots) Withdrawal of the British from Ulster (IRA) or the French from Algeria (FLN) Unification of the Cyprus island to continental Greece (EOKA)
11. 11. State(-sponsored) Terrorism Syria and Hezbollah Yemen and Al Qaeda Rgime de la terreur New Terrorism Old Terrorism
12. 12. I want to point out, that besides Essen, we never actually considered any particular industrial sites as targets. The destruction of industrial sites always was some sort of bonus for us. Our real targets always were the inner cities. RAF Marshall Sir Arthur Bomber Harris
13. 13. It seems to me that the moment has come when the question of bombing German cities simply for the sake of increasing terror, though under other pretexts, should be reviewed. Prime Minister Winston Churchill
14. 14. Network or Hierarchy? New Terrorism Independent cells Loose global network Old Terrorism Centralised Top- Down Structure Local groups
15. 15. Iranian Domestic Terrorism in the 40 The Anarchist Cookbook (1960) Assassination of the Tsar Alexander in 1881 Assassination of the French President in 1894 Bombing of the Greenwich observatory in 1894 Attack to the US President McKinsey 1904
16. 16. Al Qaeda Central is no longer the main threat to the US, it has ceased to exist as an organisation or as an operational entity The main threat comes now in the form of the home-grown, spontaneously self- organised groups of friends who become terrorists. These are radicalised bunches of guys that for a scattered global network. A leaderless Marc Sagemans Leaderless Jihad
17. 17. Bruce Hoffmans Inside Terrorism Al Qaeda continues to exercise top-down and bottom-up direction and guidance, planning and operational capabilities High impact-impact plots Al Qaeda Iraq had been dispatched to establish cells in other countries Londons 7/7/05 attacks and the Trans-Atlantic jumbo in August 06 evidence of Al Qaeda Central top-down direction
18. 18. REACTIONS Counter-Terrorism Anti-Terrorism Doing Nothing
19. 19. Counter-Terrorism US War on Terror Al Qaeda declares war to the US Therefore they are US enemies Therefore it doesnt matter if they attack righ now. They are a Proactive policies that seek to eliminate terrorist environments and groups
20. 20. There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns there are things we do not know we don't know. US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld
21. 21. The , which enables the strategic use of the unsaid, to provide selected information and only those that justify the policies adopted, as in the case of the War on Terror (Daase and Kessler) UNKNOWN KNOWS
22. 22. Anti-Terrorism Anti-terrorism: refers to target hardening, enhanced security and other defensive measures seeking to deter or prevent terrorist attacks Policy Change: eg US Patriot Act or UK terror legislation Passive Actions, like making likely targets more secure Active Actions, like engaging in political talks with terrorist groups where possible
23. 23. John Muellers No does, good does Greatest cost of terrorism is the fear an over-reaction of governments Terrorist industry drives perceptions After 9/11 in US fewer people died because of international terrorism than have drowned in the toilet Governments reactions are far more deadly than the terrorism they react against
24. 24. How terrorist groups end? Rand (2008) Military force 7% Politicisati on 43% Policing 40% Victory 10%
25. 25. So what do we know about it? Different terrorist groups have shown some common features throughout history. Eg. Suicidal acts, religion, state-sponsored, network/hierarchy The ultimate goal is political and mostly in retribution to political/military actions Military force works very little in crushing terrorism The absence of certain knowledge leaves a lot of room for reaction Terrorist is as terrorist does (Gump:1994)
26. 26. THANK YOU! Sebastiano Sali20 March 2014
27. 27. Some additional readings Schmid, A. and Jongman, A. (1988) Political Terrorism: A New Guide to Actors, Authors, Concepts, Databases, Theories and Literature, Oxford: North Holland. Weinberg, L., Pedahzur, A., Hirsch-Hoefler, S., (2004) The Challenges of Conceptualizing Terrorism, Terrorism and Political Violence, 16:4. Sageman, M., Leaderless Jihad: Terror networks in the 21st century, University of Pennsylvania Press, 2011 Hoffman, B., Inside Terrorism, New York: Columbia University Press, 2006 Daase, C. and Kessler, O. Known and Unknowns in the War on Terror: Uncertainty and the Political Constitution of Danger, Security Dialogue, 38:4, 2007 Mueller, J.E., Overblown: How Politicians and Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them, Simon and Schuster, 2006
28. 28. EVALUATIONS Academic Year: 2013/14 Module Title/Code: World Politics Since 1945, 4SSPP102 Programme of Study: International Politics or Politics of the International Economy Lecturer: Ami Abou-Bakr Seminar Tutors: Ali Hawks, Isabelle Anstey, Sebastiano Sali For the scanner to read your responses please: Use blue or black pen Write clearly in BLOCK capitals Please keep responses INSIDE the box THANK YOU! We value your comments and they will help us improve!