Territorial Impact Assessment of ScenariosAn expert judgement experiment

ESPON Project EU 2050 Meeting of the TPG

Milano, 7-8 february, 2013

The use of TIA in order to assess territorial impact of 2030 and 2050 Scenarios is considered an essential part of the ET2050 project, in the view of properly defining the 2050 Vision.

Aim of the present exercise:

Defining quali-quantitative impacts of the 4 Scenarios through expert judgement:

- by Impact Fields

- by Typologies of Regions

Aims of the exercise

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Territorial Impacts have to be calculated for:

- the Baseline Scenario, at 2030 and 2050,- the 3 Exploratory Scenarios, at 2030 and 2050

The methodology is similar to the one utilised in the previous Espon Project TEQUILA (Espon 3.2.) and simplified in the ARTS Project.

In terms of impact indicators, most of the necessary inputs are provided by the simulation procedures of the quantitative models utilised .

Where this proves unfeasible, impacts are built on the basis of experts judgement, group work and discussion inside the TPG.

General TIA Methodology

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The assessment process of each Scenario

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Driving Forces help summarising the main hypotheses underlying each Scenario and their Potential Territorial Impact

Economic:

macroeconomic elements, financial markets, international competition and trade, FDI, technological change

Cultural/Political:

international solidarity, environmental awareness, inclusiveness, migration

Policies:

Cohesion policies, rural development

Transport policies, urban policies

Driving Forces in each Scenario

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4/20 Impact Fields agreed by the Steering Committee

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ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT

GDP Land consumption

Employment (manufact.+ services) Emissions/pollutants in the air

Innovation Congestion

Tourism Flood hazard

Accessibility Land erosion

SOCIETY TERRITORIAL IDENTITY

Unemployment Landscape fragmentation

Disposable income per capita Creativity

Road accidents Cultural heritage

Risk of poverty Natural heritage

Net migration Multiculturality

Impact fields for the expert experiment

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EconomyGDP Quantitative: MASST+SASIEmployment (manufacturing + services) Quantitative: MASST+SASIInnovation Quantitative: MASSTTourism QualitativeAccessibility Quantitative: MCRIT+SASISocietyUnemployment Quantitative: MASSTDisposable income per capita Quantitative: MASSTRoad accidents Quantitative: MCRITRisk of poverty QualitativeNet migration Quantitative: MASSTEnvironmentLand consumption Qualitative (quantitative from NL)Emissions/pollutants in air Quantitative: MCRITCongestion Quantitative: MCRITFlood hazard QualitativeLand erosion QualitativeTerritorial identityLandscape fragmentation Quantitative: MCRIT + POLICreativity Qualitative (quantitative from POLI)Cultural heritage Qualitative (quantitative from POLI)Natural heritage QualitativeMulti-culturality Qualitative

Impact by driving forces on fields

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Driving forces

Economic Cultural/Political Policies

Macro-economyInternational solidarity

Cohesion Transport

Financial marketsEnvironmental awareness

Rural development

Urban

International competition

Inclusiveness

FDI/trade

Technological change

Impact fieldsSign of impact

EconomyTourism PositiveSocietyRisk of poverty NegativeEnvironment

Land consumptionNegative

Flood hazard NegativeLand erosion NegativeTerritorial IdentityCreativity Positive

Cultural heritagePositive

Natural heritagePositive

Multi-culturality (urban)

Positive

Multi-culturality (Rural)

Negative

Impact by driving forces on typologies of regions

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Driving forces

Economic Cultural/Political Policies

Macro-economy International solidarity Cohesion Transport

Financial marketsEnvironmental awareness

Rural development

Urban

International competition

Inclusiveness

FDI/trade

Technological change

Typologies of regions

MegasUrbanRuralEastern Northern Central Southern CoastalMountainPeripheralAdvanced

Medium GDP/PC

LaggingIndustrialServiceTourist

Others

a. Impacts go from 4 to 0 (very high, hi, moderate, low, nil)

b. Impact signs are already indicated: don’t worry about!

c. Fill first the Driving Force/Impact Field matrix, then the DrivingForce/Regions matrix

d. Suggestion: start by driving force: fill the first column for the Baseline Scenario, then fill the same column in the other scenarios. These impacts have to be fully and rationally comparable!

e. In each cell, put 2 scores: referring to 2030 and 2050

Instructions

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Many thanks indeed

for your collaboration !!

THANKS

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