TeraWatt - Assessing the impact of multi-site arrays on the ...TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 1: Role of...

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SuperGen UK Centre for Marine Energy Research TeraWatt - Assessing the impact of multi-site arrays on the physical and biological processes over a wider region. UKCMER

Transcript of TeraWatt - Assessing the impact of multi-site arrays on the ...TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 1: Role of...

Page 1: TeraWatt - Assessing the impact of multi-site arrays on the ...TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 1: Role of Marine Scotland Science UKCMER THE BRAHAN PROJECT Providing near real time tidal current

SuperGen UK Centre for Marine Energy Research

TeraWatt - Assessing the impact of multi-site

arrays on the physical and biological

processes over a wider region.

UKCMER

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TERAWATT ~ THE RESEARCH QUESTIONS

In response to questions posed by Marine Scotland Science

TERAWATT seeks to answer and address:

Industry input led to the selection of MIKE and

Delft3D for modelling during formative discussions

with developers and others on the proposal.

UKCMER

1) What is the best way to assess wave and tidal

energy resources, and feedbacks on energy

extraction, in certain geographical areas?

2) What are the physical consequences of wave

and tidal energy extraction?

3) What are the ecological consequences of

wave and tidal energy extraction?

4) The development of standard hydrographic

modelling methodologies for wave and tidal

developments.

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UKCMER

TERAWATT ~ EPSRC GRAND CHALLENGE 1 FUNDING

TeraWatt: Partners and Management:

Multi-institution EPSRC research project established under

the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology Scotland (MASTS),

involving the Universities of

• Heriot-Watt,

• Edinburgh,

• Highlands and Islands (LCC and SAMS),

• Glasgow (now Swansea),

• Strathclyde

• and with Marine Scotland Science as full consortium partners.

Regular reporting though a Steering Group and UKCMER, with a

Project Management Committee and regular open door

workshops drawing in device and software developers and

related PhD projects

MASTS play a key role in organising Steering Group Meetings

and participation in outreach activities.

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UKCMER

TERAWATT ~ THE WORKSTREAMS AND MANAGEMENT

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UKCMER

TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 1: Role of Marine Scotland Science

• Formulation of, monitoring progress against, research questions

• Facilitation of data management – now through FTP site

• Data acquisition – release of previously unavailable data

• Realistic Array Scenarios – developed but updating as needed

• Knowledge exchange and stakeholder engagement – e.g. hosting key workshop on incorporation of energy extraction for generic devices in Mike and Delft3D models in March 2014

• Acceptability of impacts at the licensing stage – under development and considerations within the EU Marine Strategy and Water Framework Directives

Data now available via Marine Scotland Science FTP site:-

• BGS sediments data

• Multibeam bathymetry data from UKHO, TCE, MSS

• Bay of Skaill bathymetry data

• 3x ADCP in Pentland Firth from MCA/Guardline

• TCE models and bathymetry data

• Bathymetry data compilation by Halcrow for SSM

• UKHO VORF data for vertical datum corrections

• TCE 20 m bathymetry grid based on multibeam

and Defra DEM product.

• ADCP, CTD, and met data from sound of Hoy – Dec 2012

• Stronsay Firth ADCP mooring – May 2013

• Stronsay Firth ADCP transect – May 2013

• Pentland Firth transects – May 2013

• Current meter moorings from FI channel – 2001

• Brahan HF radar, now available

• 3 x seaguard current meters and 1 x AWAC in FI channel

May – Oct 2013

• The Brahan Project

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TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 1: Role of Marine Scotland Science

www.thebrahanproject.com

UKCMER

THE BRAHAN PROJECT

Providing near real time

tidal current data within

part of the domain

modelled in MIKE and

Delft3D using CODAR

radar.

Data freely available from

website:-

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TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 1: Role of Marine Scotland Science

UKCMER

• Gridded

bathymetric data

at 20m resolution

• Realistic array

scenarios

Sandy RiddleSandwaves

Inner Sound

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Validation of Hm0 for different periods at various locations

Validation is also carried out for Tp and wave direction

Model provided boundary conditions to other work streams

TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 2: North Atlantic Wave ModelUKCMER

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TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 2: Wave Energy Extraction

Change in significant wave height from a wave array at Brough Head,West Coast Orkney Mainland

A single generic tidal

turbine and several

generic wave energy

devices were agreed at

the March 2014 TeraWatt

Industry /Government

Workshop, together with

their characteristics and

means of incorporating

within the models

developed. Published now

as a position paper.

Hosted by Marine

Scotland Science and

MASTS

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Flood current Ebb current

TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 2: Developing MIKE Flow modelsUKCMER

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TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 2: Developing Flow models

Earlier Delft3D grid used to investigate sensitivity of model parameterisation against 3 ADCP deployments in the Pentland Firth:-

Little difference found in application of different turbulence closure approaches, see Baston et al., 2013.

But model extremely sensitive to bottom friction parameterisation; insufficient data to enable the investigation of spatially varying bed resistance.

White-Colebrook spatially variable

bottom friction using FT approach

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Change in mean current speed with tidal energy extraction in the Inner Firth

TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 2: Flow models with tidal arrays

Change in one

month mean

depth averaged

current speed

with energy

extraction in

MIKE3D (top

and LHS) and

Delft3D (RHS)

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TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 2: Comparing MIKE with CFX

100m mesh, 10 sigma layers Variable mesh: 8-10m to <1m, 10 sigma layers

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• Attenuation of light intensity with depth,

affects phytoplankton and macrophyte

primary production, and the environment

for visual predators.

• Detailed data on SSC are relatively

scarce, so both dynamic and statistical

models which may predict SSC from

more readily available data are

potentially valuable.

• Analysis of >400 turbidity profiles

collected at weekly intervals during 2007-

2011 at the Marine Scotland Science

sampling site off Stonehaven on the east

of Scotland.

• General Additive Model (GAM) of SSC

at a given altitude above the seabed with

explanatory variables being tidal range,

wind and wave, and height above the

seabed.

• 5 different ranges were used for

averaging waves and wind and taking

tidal range (6/12/24/48/72 hours) and all

combinations of these gave 125 GAMs to

choose between.

• Alternative models were assessed with

Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to

choose between the fits offered by different models.

Sea surface values

Low salinity (river discharge)

Storm event

Clear correlation between sediment re-suspension events and peak spring tides

14

TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 3: Modelling of suspended sediment off Stonehaven

Analyses of unique data set of

suspended solids concentration

off Stonehaven

UKCMER

Presented as an ePoster at MASTS Annual Science Meeting 2013

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• The GAM explained 92.2% of the variability in the data.

• We see in Fig 1., and most notably in Fig 2., that the

GAM does less well at predicting the turbidity closest

to the seabed, with the best fits being seen nearer the

surface, where turbidity is lower.• Predictions are also poorest in winter

• One factor that may explain this is changes in river discharge at

different times of year.

• This method of utilising a GAM, driven by output from MIKE, was

to be transferred to predict suspended sediment in the PFOW

models.

• BUT no suitable PFOW data

• Satellite data being investigated

15Fig. 1

Fig. 4Fig. 3

Fig. 2

Predicted vs. observed turbidity

Predicted and observed

turbidity for the time series

TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 3: Modelling of suspended sediment off Stonehaven

UKCMER

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Model mesh

Calibration against ADCP data

LHS: top ~ Stroma sandwaves, bottom ~ Sandy Riddle with energy extraction over 1 lunar month. RHS: difference from the natural case

TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 3: Sediment Transport in the Pentland Firth

UKCMER

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TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 3: Sediment Transport in the Inner Sound

Sand coverage inside the Inner Sound Channel. Continuous black lines denote the extent

of sandbanks A,B,C. The intermediate areas are covered by scoured bedrock.

UKCMER

Disruption to residual gyre that maintains Sandbank A

Cumulative erosion/accretion of sandbank A (left) and B (right) over one month period (from 09/09/2001 to 09/10/2001)

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TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 4: Ecological modellingUKCMER

• Outputs from Workstreams 2 and

3, expressed as bottom stress,

without energy extraction, will be

used in statistical models that

characterise benthic biotopes and

species distribution in terms of

physical parameters, leaving a

partial dataset for each for

validation.

• The WS2 and WS3 model

outputs, with energy extraction,

will be used to project possible

change under energy extraction

scenarios.

• Approaches being trialled include

Maxent for species incidence

data and boosted regression

trees for species abundance data,

which looks more promising than

GAM approaches.

Biological Data + Environmental Data

Statistical model of spatial distributions

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TERAWATT ~ WORKSTREAM 4: Ecological modellingUKCMER

-10

-5

0

5

10

0 10 20 30 40 50

% C

han

ge in

Inci

de

nce

% Reduction in Significant Wave Height

Aetea anguina

Alcyonidium diaphanum

Alcyonidium hirsutum

Celleporella hyalina

Cribrilina punctata

Electra pilosa

Escharella immersa

Flustrellidra hispida

Membranipora membranacea

Microporella ciliata

Parasmittina trispinosa

Scrupocellaria scruposa

WAVEPENTLAND FIRTH

Models with energy extraction

scenarios from WS2 and WS3

Biological Data + Environmental Data

Statistical model of modified spatial distributions

Change gD

isp

lace

me

nt d

UNACCEPTABLE

MITIGATIONREQUIRED

SAFE

+ve-ve

XScenario s

dlimit

dthreshold

glimit gthreshold

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Baston S, Harris R E, Woolf D K, Hiley R A, and Side J (2013). Sensitivity Analysis of the Turbulence Closure Models in the Assessment

of Tidal Energy Resource in Orkney. Proceedings of the 10th EWTEC Conference, Aalborg, Denmark. 2-5 September 2013.

Baston S (2013). Implementation of Delft3D model in Orkney Waters. Young Coastal Scientists and Engineers Conference (YCSEC) 25-

26 March 2013 in Aberdeen.

Baston S (2014). Tidal modelling and environmental impacts. The Royal Society - International Scientific Seminar India-UK. March

2014. Edinburgh.

Chatzirodou A and Karunarathna H (2014). Impacts of tidal energy extraction on sea bed morphology. 10th Young Coastal Scientists

and Engineers Conference, Cardiff, UK.

Chatzirodou A and Karunarathna H (2014). Numerical modelling of sea bed morphodynamics associated with tidal energy extraction.

3rd Oxford Tidal Energy Workshop 7-8 April 2014, Oxford, UK

Chatzirodou A and Karunarathna H (2014). Impacts of tidal energy extraction on sea bed morphology, 34th International Conference

in Coastal Engineering, Seoul, Korea.

Chatzirodou A and Karunarathna H (2015). Modelling the morphodynamic response of subtidal sandbanks to tidal energyextraction, 3rd IMA International Conference on Flood Risk, Swansea, UK.

Chatzirodou A and Karunarathna H (2015). Modelling the response of subtidal sandbank dynamics to tidal energy extraction, 36th

IAHR Congress, Hague, The Netherlands.

Fairley I, Masters I, and Karunarathna H (2015). “The cumulative impact of tidal stream turbine arrays on sediment transport in the

Pentland Firth.” Renewable Energy 80:755-769

Fairley I, Karunarathna H and Masters I (2015). “Sediment transport in the Pentland Firth and impacts of tidal stream energy

extraction” Proceedings 11th EWTEC, Nantes, France, 6-11th September

Fairley I and Karunarathna H (2014). Morphodynamics in the lee of wave energy converter arrays, Proc. 2nd International Conference

on Environmental Interactions of Marine Renewable Technologies, Stornoway, Isle of Lewis, Scotland.

Fairley I and Karunarathna H (2014). The impact of tidal stream energy extraction on sub-tidal sandbanks in the Pentland Firth,

Scotland, 10th Young Coastal Scientists and Engineers Conference, Cardiff, UK.

Goddijn-Murphy L M, Woolf D K and Easton M C (2013). Current patterns in the Inner Sound (Pentland Firth) from underway ADCP

data. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 30, pp 96-111.

Greenwood C E and Christie D (2014). A frequency independent method for the simulation of Disturbances around a small scale wave

farm using a Boussinesq simulation. Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Environmental Interactions of

Marine Renewable Energy Technologies, Stornoway, Isle of Lewis, Scotland.

TERAWATT ~ Published outputs and Knowledge Exchange Activities

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Masters I, Williams A, Croft TN, Togneri M, Edmunds M, Zangiabadi E, Fairley I and Karunarathna H (2015). A Comparison of Numerical

Modelling Techniques for Tidal Stream Turbine Analysis” Energies 07/2015: 7833-7853

McCaig C, Sabatino A, and Heath M R (2013). Statistical modelling of suspended sediment off Stonehaven. Poster presentation to the

MASTS Annual Science Meeting, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh. 27-29 August 2013.

MacIver R, Christie C, and Gleizon P (2015). Wave-Current Interaction in the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters: Wave Field Effects. In:

Proceedings of EWTEC 12th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference. Nantes 2015, France, 6-11 September 2015.

McNatt C, Venugopal V, Forehand D, and Payne G (2015). Experimental Analysis of WEC Wave Fields, 11th European Wave and Tidal

Energy Conference, EWTEC 2015, Nantes, France, 6-11 September.

Rahman A A and Venugopal V (2015). Inter-Comparison of 3D Tidal Flow Models Applied To Orkney Islands and Pentland Firth for

Resource Assessment, 12th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference, EWTEC 2015, Nantes, France, 6-11 September.

Venugopal V and Nemalidinne R (2014)."Marine Energy Resource Assessment for Orkney and Pentland Waters with a coupled Wave

and Tidal Flow Model". Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, OMAE

2014, June 8-13, 2014, San Francisco, USA.

Venugopal V, Nemalidinne R and Vögler A (2015). Impact of Temporal Variation of Wind Input on Wave Parameters Prediction Using

Numerical Wave Model. In: Proceedings of EWTEC 12th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference. Nantes, France, 6-11

September 2015.

Venugopal V and Reddy N (2015). Wave resource assessment for Scottish waters using a large scale North Atlantic spectral wave

model, Journal of Renewable Energy. 76, April 2015, p. 503-525, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2014.11.056.

Waldman S, Miller C, Baston S and Side J, (2014). “Comparison of two hydrodynamic models for investigating energy extraction from

tidal flows”, poster at 2nd International Conference on Environmental Interactions of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies

(EIMR), Stornoway, 2014.

Waldman S, Nemalidinne R and Baston S (2015). “Implementation of tidal turbines in hydrodynamic models of Pentland Firth and

Orkney Waters”. Poster at INORE Symposium, Naples, May 2015.

Waldman S, Genet G, Baston S and Side J (2015). Correcting for mesh size dependency in a regional model’s representation of tidal

turbines. In: Proceedings of EWTEC 12th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference. Nantes 2015, September 2015.

Published during the work; plus a few more in press and under preparation

TERAWATT ~ Published outputs and Knowledge Exchange Activities

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A “toolbox” of methods to better understand and assess the effects of tidal and

wave energy arrays on the marine environment. Published in book and

electronic versions by MASTS.

O’Hara Murray R (2015). Data acquisition and processing for TeraWatt, pp 9-29 in TeraWatt

Position Papers. ISBN 978-0-9934256-0-8

O’Hara Murray R (2015). Tidal stream and wave energy array scenarios for the Pentland Firth

and Orkney Waters Strategic Area, pp 31-47 in TeraWatt Position Papers. ISBN 978-0-

9934256-0-8

MacIver R, Reddy N and Venugopal V (2015). Representing wave enegy extraction in regional

scale numerical models, pp 49-73 in TeraWatt Position Papers. ISBN 978-0-9934256-0-8

Baston S, Waldman S and Side J (2015). Modelling energy extraction in tidal flows, pp 75-107

in TeraWatt Position Papers. ISBN 978-0-9934256-0-8

Fairley I and Karunarathna J (2015). Modelling the impacts of marine energy extraction on non-

cohesive sediment transport and morphodynamics, pp 109-129 in TeraWatt Position

Papers. ISBN 978-0-9934256-0-8

Sabatino A, Clement R, Heath M and McKee D (2015). Use of ocean colour remote sensing to

monitor surface suspended solids, pp 129-140 in TeraWatt Position Papers. ISBN 978-0-

9934256-0-8

Heath M, Sabatino A, Serpetti N and O’Hara Murray R (2015). Scoping the impact of tidal and

wave energy extraction on suspended sediment concentrations and underwater light

climate, pp 143-166 in TeraWatt Position Papers. ISBN 978-0-9934256-0-8

Davies I (in preparation). Towards an understanding of significance and acceptance criteria for

environmental impacts from energy extraction. To be added to TeraWatt Position

Papers (electronic version). ISBN 978-0-9934256-1-5

Bell M and Burrows M (in preparation). Statistical models of biological change from energy

extraction. To be added to TeraWatt Position Papers (electronic version). ISBN 978-0-

9934256-1-5

TERAWATT ~ Position Paper Publication

Provides a full and

detailed account of the

“toolbox”

methodologies

developed by the

TeraWatt Consortium

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TERAWATT ~ Journal Special Issue

Introduction to and Overview of the TeraWatt Research J Side (Heriot-Watt University) M James (Marine Alliance for Science and Technology Scotland) I Davies (Marine Scotland Science) M Heath

(University of Strathclyde), H Karunathra (University of Swansea) V Venugopal (University of Edinburgh) A Vögler and M Burrows

(University of the Highlands and Islands)

Data acquisition and the development of realistic tidal and wave energy scenarios for

numerical modelling of Orkney Islands waters, Scotland Lead Author: Rory O’Hara Murray (Marine Scotland Science)

Implementation of tidal turbines in MIKE3 and Delft3D models of Pentland Firth & Orkney

Waters S Waldman, S Baston, J Side (Heriot-Watt University), R Nemalidinne, V Venugopal (University of Edinburgh), A Chatzirodou (Swansea

University)

Numerical modelling of wave energy resources and assessment of wave energy extraction

by large scale wave farms V Venugopal, R Nemalidinne (University of Edinburgh), R MacIver, A Vögler (University of the Highlands and Islands) and Tay Zhi Yung

(University of Edinburgh)

Effects of marine energy extraction on non-cohesive sediment transport and morphological

change in the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters. I Fairley, A Chatzirodou and H Karunarathna (Swansea University)

Modelling the effects of energy extraction on spatial patterns of suspended sediment. A Sabatino, M Heath, D McKee, C McCaig (University of Strathclyde)

Modelling biological change as a consequence of energy extraction Bell, M.C., Burrows, M.T., Waldman, S., Baston, S., Nemalidinne, R., Maciver, R., O’Hara Murray, R., Venugopal, V. & Side, J. (Heriot-Watt

University, University of the Highlands and Islands, Edinburgh University and Marine Scotland Science)

Towards an understanding of significant alterations in the hydrographic regime Lead Author: I Davies (Marine Scotland Science)

Summary of TeraWatt conclusions of relevance to the governance of marine energy

development Authors ALL – Lead Author J Side (Heriot-Watt University)

Contains headline

findings for

regulatory authorities

and industry

consenting activities,

demonstrating the

application of the

“toolbox”

methodologies

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SuperGen UK Centre for Marine Energy Research

EcoWatt2050 – Ecological responses to very

large scale energy removal against a

background of climate change

UKCMER

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UKCMER

ECOWATT2050 ~ START DATE 1st MARCH 2014

In response also to questions posed by the regulator:-

1. The role of marine spatial planning for very large scale

array deployments.

2. Criteria to determine the ecological limits for very

large scale energy extraction.

3. How to differentiate the effects of climate change

from energy extraction?

4. How might very large scale array deployments

ameliorate or exacerbate climate change effects?

OR: How can marine planning and policy

maximise the potential marine

renewables extraction while minimising

environmental impacts and ensuring that

these meet the requirements of European

law.

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ECOWATT2050 ~ June 2014 Workshop, joined by LINC

Major output from June Meeting – clarity on individual deliverables and timescales!

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ECOWATT2050 ~ Additional modelling approaches

• Use of

FVCOM,

particularly

for climate

change

models

• Scottish

Shelf model

and PFOW

CTD validation

SST

comparison

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ECOWATT2050 ~ Additional modelling approaches

7km MRCS (NEMO –ERSEM-SPM)

• Use of NEMO ERSEM coupling for ecological

models

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MSS Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters

(PFOW) regional scale FVCOM model

400 (20m diameter) turbines in 157 elements

Average cell length in inner sound ~ 250 m

Momentum sink parameterisation in 8th sigma

layer ~ 12 m off the bed

ECOWATT2050 ~ Additional modelling approaches

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Inner sound 400 x 20 m diameter tidal

turbines in MSS FVCOM model

ECOWATT2050 ~ Additional modelling approaches

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Inner sound 400 x 20 m diameter tidal

turbines in MSS FVCOM model

ECOWATT2050 ~ Additional modelling approaches

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Generic Oyster type WEC Modelling Particulars

ECOWATT2050 ~ Additional modelling approaches

Use of WAMIT for

very large scale

arrays

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Five WECs, Wave Direction: Oblique sea(30deg), Hs=3m, Tp=10s

ECOWATT2050 ~ Additional modelling approaches

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Oyster type arrangements in OrkneySource: Marine Scotland

ECOWATT2050 ~ Additional modelling approaches

Wave height change - statistical mean difference

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WITH THANKS TO: HWU (Susana Baston, Mike Bell, Simon Waldman, David Woolf, Rob Hiley, Rob

Harris), MSS (Ian Davies, Rory O’Hara Murray, Alejandro Gallego), UoE (Venki Venugopal, Manasa

Behera, Reddy Tirumaleswara Nemalidinne), Strathclyde (Mike Heath, Chric McCaig, Alessandro

Sabatino), Swansea (Harshinie Karunarathna, Ian Fairley, Antonia Chatzirodou), UHI (Arne Vögler

[LCC], Ruairi Maciver [LCC], James Morrison [LCC], Mike Burrows [SAMS]), NOCL Judith Wolf and

Hannah Buckland, Aberdeen Beth Scott and MASTS (Mark James).

PUBLICATIONS FROM ECOWATT2050

Bricheno L, Wolf J and Aldridge J (2015). Distribution of natural disturbance due to wave and tidal bed currents around

the UK. Continental Shelf Research, pp 67-77

O’Hara Murray R, Price D and Gallego A (2015). A look to the future: maximizing the sustainable tidal stream energy

potential of the Pentland Firth. MASTS Annual Science Meeting, 30 Sep – 2 Oct 2015

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