Tendências Macroeconômicas - LinkedIn FinanceConnect Brasil 2013
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JillonMoney.com
Jill Schlesinger Sr Business Analyst CBS News
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Comparison of recent visitors to Brazil
Who I am
§ CBS News Business Analyst
§ Investment Advisor and CFP
§ Former Commodities Trader
§ SALESMAN!
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Global Macro Outlook 2013
“We don’t have a sense of the final destination … Where we end, I really don’t have much of clue.” § IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard 4/13
• Global growth = +3.1%
• US = +1.7%
• Brazil = +2.5
• China = +7.8%
• Japan = +1.6%
• Eurozone = -0.6%
• Emerging and Developing = +5%
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US Recovery: Mais ou menos
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US Recovery: GDP
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US Recovery
Measures used by the NBER business cycle dating committee:
• GDP: returned to the pre-recession peak in Q4 2011
• Jobs: 2% below pre-recession peak
• Industrial Production: 1.2% below pre-recession peak
• Real personal income: 3.7% below previous peak
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US Recovery: Profits/Stocks
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Brazil GDP: Hitting a BRIC Wall!
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Brazilian Economy: Numbers still work!
• 40 million entered middle class over 10 years
• GDP doubled over last decade
• Percentage in extreme poverty shrinking
• Highest exporter of sugar, coffee, orange juice
• Protests may help to focus on infrastructure/health care
• Middle class can be positive agent for change
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Brazil: Inflation
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Bovespa
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Brazil: Competitiveness
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Global Central Bank Action
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Financial Services: What’s Ahead
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Business Opportunity: Mass Affluent
Brazilian Total Affluent Population (> USD $250K; > BRL 570K)
• Nearly 2 million (1.6% of Brazilian population)
• Expected to rise to 2.8 million by 2017
• Banks, brokerage firms, private banks competing
• How will you stand out?
Source: Datamonitor Research
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What do Mass Affluent Want?
• To feel unique and special
• To communicate on demand
• Access to and use of cutting edge technology
• To be HEARD
• WHAT’S MISSING?
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Mass Affluent Need Help
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Social is the KEY
By 2014, nearly 165M people will be regular users of social
• 65% multi-task while watching TV
• Younger, participatory
• Raving Fans
• Low cost prospecting
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Breaking Through
• 92% of Americans use multiple platforms to get their daily news
• 37% of internet users have contributed to, commented on, or disseminated news via social
• 75% of online news consumers say they get news forwarded through email or posts on social
• 1.5M unique publishers actively using inShare buttons
• 2B daily updates on LinkedIn feed
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LinkedIn Engagement
• 31% mass affluent
• 34% millionaires
• 40% UHNW
• 50% of millionaire business owners consider themselves “active’’ users
• 42% use for consider as a source for investment and financial needs
• 54% of UHNW investors 55 - 64 use for financial communication/research
Source: Spectrem Research
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Business Opportunity
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