Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010
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Transcript of Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010
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CBRE HCMC Office Services2010 Tenants Evening Part I:
2010…Are we in for a happy ending?
Tuesday 26th January 2010
Presented by: Mr. Chris CurrieAssociate DirectorOffice Services
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
Market Overview Q1 2010
2009 supply has filled up quicker than previously thought
Signs of companies revising 2010 headcounts upwards
Vietnamese tenants financially strong and less risk averse
CBRE Monthly enquiries are increasing
Rents appear to be bottoming out after 2009 falls
Pushback from some Landlords
Sense of realism - Asking vs. Achievable now around 10%
CBRE Absorption level of 154,000sm in 2009
Cluster of deals being done ~ US$30++ sm/month
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
Recent headlines – Asia strong
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
Indices – 12 monthsVN Index
497.9026 January
2010
S&P
Source: HSC Securities
Source: FT.com
58%
32%
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
Commodities – YTD
Vietnam Gold
NYMEX Crude
Source: SJC
Source: FT.com
28%
40%
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
The devaluing dong – The hidden costVietnam Will Probably Devalue Dong 4% by Year-end
Tamara Henderson, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd – September , 2009
For indicative purposes only – forecast for 2009 and 2010
12.45%VND 500,000.00$28.11$25.00VND 20,000.00December 1 20103.84%VND 461,725.00$25.96$25.00VND 18,469.00January 26 2010
VND 444,625.00$25.00$25.00VND 17,785.00June 1 2009
% increaseVNDEffectiveUSDExchangeDate
Currency Caps between 10 – 15%
Advance Rent Payments at fixed exchange rates
VND denominated lease agreements
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
Rents Falling
NB. Markets do not necessarily move along the curve in the same direction or at the same speed.
The rental cycle is intended to display the trend in net effective rents
Asian Office Market Rent Cycle, Q4 2009
Rents Bottoming
Out
Rental Growth Accelerating
Rental Growth Slowing
Shanghai
Singapore
Tokyo
Hong Kong
T
H
S
S
B
Beijing
G Guangzhou
T Taipei
S Seoul
N New Delhi
H
MumbaiBBangalore
J Jakarta
K Kuala
Lumpur
M Manila
B
Bangkok
MHCM City
H Hanoi
As of Q4 2009
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
Centec
Times Square – 2H 2011
M&C Tower – 2H 2011
Bitexco Financial Tower – 2H 2010
Kumho Asiana Plaza
Saigon Tower
Sun WahSaigon Centre
Diamond Plaza
Saigon Trade Center
Me Linh Point
Metropolitan Vincom Tower – 2H 2010
Major Buildings
Le Meridian – 1H 2011
CT Group Building – 1H 2011
HTMC – 2H 2011
A&B Tower
SJC Tower - 2012Existing – Future
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
Vincom Center Office Tower
Fitting Out Q1 2010
Commitment 20%
Curtain Wall going up
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
Bao Viet
Fitting Out – Q1 2010
Commitment - 40% (Landlord Occupies)
Finalizing exterior façade, windows going-in
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
Bitexco Financial Tower
Fitting Out – April 2010
Commitment - 18%
Curtain wall in-line with construction, up to the 45th
level (out of 68 Level)
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
A&B Tower
Fitting Out Q2 2010
Commitment 47%
Curtain Wall nearly completed
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
HCMC Power Company
Fitting Out Q2 2010
Commitment - 30% (Landlord Occupies)
Curtain Wall going up
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
Occupancy Rates & Vacant Space in Major Buildings
11,50060%CentrePoint37,100smApproximate TOTAL
0100%Sailing Tower2,30080%Royal Centre
5,60085%Saigon Trade Center40098%Me Linh Point Tower
4,10085%CENTEC
1,700 - GFA89%Saigon Tower1,000 - GFA98%Sun Wah Tower
9,00065% Kumho1,000 - GFA98%Metropolitan
500 - SGFA95%Saigon Centre0100%Diamond Plaza
Available Net Vacant Space*Occupancy
Estimate only according to information obtained from landlords and agents
* Unless otherwise stated
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 15
2010 Major New Supply
37,100smPlus current vacant space134,028smApproximate new space
30,92218%Bitexco Financial Tower
170,000sm**Approximate TOTAL space available end 2010
21,8060%The Flemington – D117,00040%(LL Occupies)Bao Viet Building
13,70030%(LL Occupies)HCMC Power Company
51,60020%Vincom Center9,00047%A&B Tower
Available Net Vacant Space*Commitment
Estimate only according to information obtained from landlords and agents
•Unless otherwise stated
**Approx NET square metres
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 16
Demand – Which areas of the market
Financials (Banks) / Insurance /
Securities / Education / Oil & Gas / Software /
Call Centre's
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 17
HCMC Net Absorption of Office Space
Net Take Up ofOffice Space (all grades)
144,000
146,000
148,000
150,000
152,000
154,000
156,000
2007 2008 2009
GFA
(sq
m)
Source: CBRE (Vietnam)
HCMC Net Absorption
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 18
Regional Net Absorption
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 19
$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50$55$60$65$70$75
Q1 2009 Apr-09 Jun-09 Jan-10
Cu
rren
t A
skin
g R
ents
(ex
cl.
Serv
ice
Ch
arg
e a
nd
VA
T)
Source: CBRE (Vietnam)
Current Asking Rents
Me Linh PointCENTEC
Saigon Trade CenterSailing Tower
Saigon CentreSaigon Tower
Diamond Plaza
KumhoMetropolitan
Sun Wah
*Buildings are not listed in any particular order within rental ranges.
KumhoMetropolitan
Sun Wah TowerSaigon CentreSaigon Tower
Diamond PlazaMe Linh Point
CENTECSaigon Trade Center
Sailing Tower
KumhoMetropolitan
Sun Wah TowerSaigon CentreSaigon Tower
Diamond PlazaMe Linh Point
CENTECSaigon Trade Center
Sailing TowerBao VietCENTEC
A&B TowerSaigon Trade Center
CentrePoint
KumhoMetropolitanVincom CenterSun Wah TowerSaigon CentreSaigon Tower
Diamond PlazaMe Linh Point
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 20
GRADE B BUILDING CLOSING RENTS (NET AREA)
3246545028282420.5High Zone
3144524926232017Mid zone
2742504822181614Low Zone
Jan2010
Jan2009
May2008
Dec2007
Dec2006
Jul2005
Apr2005
Jun2002
Notes: Rents excl SC & VAT
Doubled and halved
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 21
Strengths
•Increased Supply = Increased Options•Better Quality•Rents are down•Flexibility Landlords•Landlords are moving quickly
Weaknesses
•Parking•Quality of Amenities•Infrastructure – Access•Efficiencies
Opportunities
ConsolidationLonger term leases / strata titleUpgrade in quality / gradeNewer, more efficient space
Threats
Decreased Landlord leverageRents increasingDemand outstripping supplyDelays in completion
Tenants View of the Office Market
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 22
Summary
If demand exceeds 2009 levels, rents may pick up in 2011
Vietnamese tenants will continue to dominate the market
More long term leases / strata titled office space
Occupancy levels critical to leverage
Realism takes hold
Happy Ending…you may not get it your own way!
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 23
Covers:National and CityEconomic OverviewOfficeRetailHotelResidential for SaleInvestment Serviced ApartmentsConstruction Costs
Quarterly Reports for Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi
Available for each city, in English or Vietnamese
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 24
Over 300 markets in more than 50 countries
49
33
www.cbrevietnam.com
We obtained the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified its accuracy and make noguarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other
conditions, prior sale, lease or financing or withdrawal without notice. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct
your own investigation of the property and transaction.
Thank You