Telecom Sector - Airtel

7/30/2019 Telecom Sector - Airtel

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Security Analysis and Business Valuation

Telecom Sector Bharti Airtel

Ver 1.0, Dated 06-June-2012

Project team Group 4

Manish Bhasin

Aryadipta Dash

Prince Yadav

Yogesh Yadav

Samdarsh Nayar

Guided by:

Professor Vivek Bhatia


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Acknowledgement

This project is done purely with an objective of enhancing the learning by leveraging the concepts taught

in classroom teaching. We thank professor for guiding on the topic and necessary support to do this

study project.

Project Team

DISCLAIMER

Many of the inputs here are taken from internet sources (secondary data) which may not be accurate.

Any further use of this report needs to be carefully validated by person using it.


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Table of ContentsAcknowledgement ........................................................................................................................................ 3

1. Economic Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 6

1.1 World Economy ................................................................................................................................... 6

1.2 Indian Economy ................................................................................................................................... 6

1.2.1 Inflation and Interest Rate Scenario ............................................................................................ 7

1.2.2 Political environment/Economic Reforms ................................................................................... 8

1.3 African Economy ..................................................................................................................................... 8

2. Industry Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 9

2.1 Indian Telecom Sector ........................................................................................................................ 9

2.2 Regulatory Environment ..................................................................................................................... 9

2.3 Porters five forces ............................................................................................................................ 10

2.3.1 Bargaining Power of Buyers ........................................................................................................... 10

2.3.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers ....................................................................................................... 10

2.3.3 Threat of New Entrants .................................................................................................................. 11

2.3.4 Threat of Substitutes ...................................................................................................................... 11

2.3.5 Rivalry among competitors ............................................................................................................ 11

2.4 Expected industry returns ................................................................................................................. 11

2.5 African Telecom Sector ..................................................................................................................... 12

3. Company Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 13

3.1 Business Divisions ............................................................................................................................. 13

3.1.1 India and South Asia................................................................................................................... 13

3.1.2 Africa .......................................................................................................................................... 14

3.1.3 Partners ...................................................................................................................................... 14

3.2 Subsidiary Companies ....................................................................................................................... 14

3.3 Firm SWOT ........................................................................................................................................ 15

Strength .................................................................................................................................................. 15

Weakness ................................................................................................................................................ 15

Opportunity............................................................................................................................................. 15

Threat ...................................................................................................................................................... 15

4. Valuation ................................................................................................................................................. 16

5 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................. 17


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1. Economic Analysis

1.1 World Economy

After almost four years of financial turmoil and instability in the global financial environment,

just when the world economy looked to be gaining a measure of stability and confidence, the

situation looks to be shaky once again with problems in the Euro-zone. The IMF projects that theglobal economic growth will decline from 4% in 2011 to 3.5% in 2012, before picking up to 4%

in 2013. The Euro zone shows sign of slipping into a recession again, though that is expected to

be offset by around 2% growth in the US and 6% in the emerging and developing economies.The economies of Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, are demonstrating structural

improvement. Japan is on the road to normalcy after the twin disasters of the tsunami and the

Fukushima nuclear reactor accident. The global supply chains, disrupted by the disasters in Japan

and the floods in Thailand, have been restored. The financial condition of the large globalcorporations is extremely strong, and their cash holdings at an all-time high.

The worst-case scenarios for the global economy have not come to pass. That, in no small

measure, is due to the unprecedented stimulus provided by governments and central banks.

Europe has also reached a degree of consensus on fiscal reforms. The ECB has also put in placefirewalls to ward off a widespread economic contagion.

Clearly, the road ahead is not yet smooth. The bond, inter-bank and sovereign debt

markets in Europe remain jittery. The process of financial deleveraging still has a long way togo. Oil prices remain stubbornly high. Unemployment is proving extremely sticky and concerns

about inequality are growing. A major worry is the political gridlock in many major countries,that makes it difficult to strike the right trade-offs between growth and fiscal and monetaryrestraint

1.2 Indian Economy

The Indian economy was quick off the mark in recovering after the 2008 shocks. But the growthmomentum has slowed considerably over the past year. GDP growth in the third quarter of FY

2011-12 was 6.1%, down from 8.3% in the corresponding quarter of FY 2010-11. Some of the

key indicators are bearish. Gross fixed capital formation has contracted in recent months. Growthin industrial production in the April 2011-February 2012 period slid to 3.5%, compared to 8.1%

during the same period last year. Inflation, particularly in food items, remains high. There have

been major slippages on the fiscal side. The current account deficit, in the April-December 2011period widened to 4.0% of GDP, a clear warning sign. On a trade-weighted basis the Rupee

depreciated around 8% in the past year. Given the slippage in growth, RBIs decision to easemonetary policy was timely. Even so monetary policy will not be effective unless it is supported

by fiscal restraint. Indias economy is poised delicately. The extended pause in reforms, together

with some recent retrograde policy moves, have clouded business sentiment


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1.2.1 Inflation and Interest Rate Scenario

Inflation figures and projections paint a mixed picture. RBI report on Macroeconomic andmonetary developments (dated Apr 16, 2012) suggests that Inflation in India is likely to remain

high, at around the 7% mark, particularly due to high oil prices, sharp rupee depreciation andhigher freight rates and taxes (hike in excise duty to 12 per cent from 10 per cent). As per theRBI's "current assessment", Indian basket crude oil prices during the year could average around

the current levels of about USD 120 per barrel but both upside and downside risks to this

projection remain large. India imports about 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements.

The central bank said demand moderation, reflected in the dampening of the pricing power ofproducers, has also played a role in moderating inflation in the last one year. Although inflation

has eased considerably as compared to last couple of years, there are significant upside risks and

the current and projected levels still do not permit.

The Reserve Bank cut the repo rate (its main policy rate) for the first time in nearly three years inApril 2012 by a steeper-than-expected 50 basis points to 8 %. At the time, the central bank

warned that further rate cuts could be difficult because of persistent threats to inflation from food

and fuel priceany significant easing of monetary policy to boost growth in the economy.However India's economic growth rate slipped to 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011-12,

the lowest in nearly nine years, following poor performance of the manufacturing and farm


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sectors. Slowing growth has put pressure on RBI to reduce interest rates however, a rate cut, if it

happens, however, is unlikely to kick-start economic growth all on its own and large economicreforms would be required to bring back India on the high growth trajectory

1.2.2 Political environment/Economic Reforms

The slowing growth, high inflation, high fiscal deficit and the highest ever trade account deficit

is raising a lot of concerns on the India growth story. The government is struggling to cope upwith its coalition partners when it comes to bringing in reforms like FDI in multi-brand retail,

insurance and finance sector reforms, GST etc. And the large number of scams un-earthed in the

recent past has brought the entire government machinery and decision making to a complete halt.

Policy paralysis is the term being used for future plans not getting approved to bring growth

back on track, improve infrastructure and implement welfare policies. Indian markets have been

the worst performers amongst all big emerging economies which is clearly a warning sign and

suggests that there are internal issues that have to be dealt with and not just an offshoot of theglobal economic turmoil.

1.3 African Economy

Owing to the high growth potential shown by African economies (even though they may nothave reached the level of BRIC countries in terms of growth), for the sake of this valuation

exercise, the growth rate has been assumed to be same as the growth rate in the Indian market.


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2. Industry Analysis

2.1 Indian Telecom Sector

The telecom sector, undeniably plays a critical role in the economic growth of the country and in

its journey towards inclusive growth. Even as the sectors direct contribution is just around 2% to

2.5% of GDP, the manner in which it impacts the lives of over 919 million Indians, is beyondquantification. Regrettably, the sector is going through a phase of uncertain regulatory

environment, post the cancellation of licenses by the Honble Supreme Court in February 2012,

which were awarded in 2008. Furthermore, the proposed policy changes towards spectrumauctioning, pricing and re-farming, by the regulator, bode ill for the sector.

As per Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) data, the total telecom subscribers in

India (GSM + CDMA + Wire-line) at the end of March 2012 rose by 7.85 mn subscribers to951.34 mn as compared to February 2012. The total wireless subscriber base (GSM + CDMA) in

the metros and 'A' circle as at the end of March 2012 stood at 427.78 mn as compared to 425.21

mn during February 2012, while the total subscriber base in the 'B' and 'C' category circles stood

at 372.26 mn and 119.13 mn respectively, up 3.75 mn M-o-M and 1.69 mn M-o-M respectively.As per the TRAI's data, India's total tele-density increased to 78.66% at the end of March 2012.

as against 78.10% as at the end of February 2012, while the wireless tele density in the country

as at the end of March 2012 rose to 76%, as against 75.42% at the end of February 2012. Theurban wireless tele-density increased to 162.82%, while the rural wireless tele-density at the end

of March 2012 increased to 38.33%. As per the TRAI's report, the number of actual activesubscribers, based on the Visitor Location Register (VLR) at the end of March 2012, was 683.02mn, as against the total wireless subscriber base as on that date of 919.17 mn. Broadband

subscriber base increased marginally from 13.54 mn in February 2012 to 13.79 mn in March

2012.

2.2 Regulatory EnvironmentSupreme Court order on quashing of licenses granted in January 2008

The Honble Supreme Court, vide its judgment dated February 02, 2012 quashed the PressRelease dated January 10, 2008 issued by DoT and consequent grant of licenses and allocation of

related spectrum. This directive which was originally to have come into effect after four months

from February 02, 2012 has now been further extended till September 07, 2012. The Supreme

Court has also directed TRAI to give fresh recommendations for grant of license and allocationof spectrum in 2G band in 22 Service Areas, as was done for 3G band, by auction by August 31,

2012.

Press Statement by Telecom Minister on Telecom Policy

The Telecom Minister released a press statement on February 15, 2012. The statement noted thatRecommendations of TRAI on Spectrum Management and Licensing Framework of May 11,

2010 along with its further recommendations of February 08, 2011, clarification of May 03, 2011and response dated November 03, 2011 were considered by the Telecom Commission. Key

highlights of the statement are

All future licenses will be Unified Licenses and spectrum will be delinked from the license.


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Uniform license fee across all telecom licenses and service areas which will progressively be

made equal to 8% of the Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) in two yearly steps starting from 2012-13, subject to a minimum presumptive AGR.

To bring IP-I Service Providers under licensing regime.

Validity of existing UAS, CMTS and Basic services licenses may be extended for another 10

years at one time. On extension, the UAS licensee will be required to pay a fee of ` 2 crore forMetro and A Circles, ` 1 crore for Bcircles and ` 0.5 crore for C circles.

Need for re-farming of spectrum is accepted in-principle.

Prescribed limit of spectrum assigned will be 2X8MHz/ 2X5MHz for GSM/CDMAtechnologies respectively for all service areas other than in Delhi and Mumbai where it will be

2X10MHz / 2X6.25 MHz.

Intra-service area merger of CMTS/UAS licenses will be allowed if the market share by bothsubscriber base and Adjusted Gross Revenue of the resultant entity is upto 35%. If it is above

35% & upto 60%, transparent criteria will be prescribed/adopted after receipt of TRAIs

recommendations. The total spectrum held by the resultant entity shall not exceed 25% of the

spectrum assigned, by way of auction or otherwise.

Sharing of 2G spectrum (800/900/1800 MHz bands) will be permitted between two spectrumholders in the same service area, with the prior permission of the licensor, for a period of 5 years

and can be renewed for a further one term of five years, on terms to be prescribed. Spectrumusage charges will be levied on both the operators individually but on the total spectrum held by

both the operators together.

Spectrum sharing will not be permitted among licensees having 3G spectrum.

2.3 Porters five forces

2.3.1 Bargaining Power of Buyers

- Many players in the market offering almost similar services. Lack of service differentiationamong service providers allows the buyers to choose among different competitors

- Mobile number portability provides almost 0 switching cost giving immense power to the buyer

- Highly competitive pricing. To increase usage of existing infrastructure, spectrum, licenses etc,

companies are wooing customers with attractive price points to take advantage of high price

sensitivity of the customer, especially in non-Metro locations.

2.3.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers

- A number of competitors vying to supply equipment and network management services to theTelecom operators (e.g. Nokia-Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel Lucent, Motorola, Cisco and so on)

- Emergence of Chinese vendors has worsened the competition among suppliers leading to lower

price points and competitive offerings.

- An ecosystem exists for sharing of Tower infrastructure among different operators. Co-

dependence.


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- Medium cost of switching as changing h/w infrastructure can impact deployment architecture.

2.3.3 Threat of New Entrants

- Strong entry barriers. High infrastructure cost and License Cost. Though some arrangements of

spectrum sharing now coming into place

- Strong brand pull of existing players like Vodafone, Airtel and Idea makes it difficult for new

players to gain a firm footing easily.

- New connection cost is low and also number portability provides almost 0 switching cost. New

players could make use of this to gain subscribers by throwing attractive offers.

- Stringent Govt Policy for Spectrum and License allocation

2.3.4 Threat of Substitutes

- No major threat from any substitutes (like Satellite phone).

- Upgrade of technology is a concern though like 2G-> 3G -> 4G

2.3.5 Rivalry among competitors

- Hyper-competition, especially in the wireless market to gain customer share. Price wars and

competing for new and better services

- Huge Exit Barriers

- 5-6 players in each region, with big players present in majority of region.

- Innovations are replicated fast and all use network elements from fixed vendors

2.4 Expected industry returns

After the spectacular performance for more than a decade, subscriber growth has been shrinkingin the last few months, with net subscriber addition declining from 23 million in November 2010to just 3 million in November 2011. Researchers believe (CARE research) that subscriber growthwill be sluggish in the next couple of years, due to factors like saturation in urban areas, expected rise

in tariff, increased uncertainty in the sector leading to reduced expansion plans by the operators etc.With the uncertainty surrounding the cancellation of 122 licences by the Supreme Court, it isbelieved that tariffs will reverse the trend inching-up marginally and as a result AverageRevenue per User (ARPU) will see a marginal improvement over the next 2-3 years. Overall, thesector will see marginal improvement in operating profitability in the next 2-3 years

The Indian wireless subscriber base was growing at the rate of 40-45% per annum till 2011-12happened. And with the global and local factors likely to persist for a couple of years, the growth is


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likely to remain stagnant for 2 more years before a possible bounce-back. But it is still unlikely thatthe growth of 40-50% can be achieved and our estimate is a modest 10-20 % for the next 5 yearsand a stable 6.5% thereafter (Please see attached excelsheet in next chapter for details)

2.5 African Telecom Sector

Year 2011 continued to experience growth in African telecom market. The total customer basegrew 17% over the 12-month period. The total telecom customer base stood at 205 Mn as at end

of March 2011. Though a few countries have very high penetration, due to higher GDP percapita and relatively smaller population or multisim environment, penetration in outer markets

where the Company operates is still low. Of 16 African countries where Airtel operates, only 7

countries (Congo B, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Seychelles and Sierra Leone) have crossed

50% SIM penetration mark. The competitive intensity in each of the sixteen countries variesfrom 2 to 10 players. There have been no major competition launches during the year.


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3. Company Analysis

Business DescriptionBharti Airtel is one of the worlds leading providers of telecommunication services withpresence in 19 countries including India & South Asia and Africa. The Company served an

aggregate of 220.9 Mn customers as on March 31, 2011. The Company is the largest wireless

service provider in India, based on the number of customers as of March 31, 2011. The Companyoffers an integrated suite of telecom solutions to its enterprise customers, in addition to providing

long distance connectivity both nationally and internationally. The Company also offers Digital

TV and IPTV Services. All these services are rendered under a unified brand airtel eitherdirectly or through subsidiary companies.

The Company also deploys, owns and manages passive infrastructure pertaining to telecom

operations under its subsidiary Bharti Infratel Limited. Bharti Infratel owns 42% of Indus

Towers Limited. Bharti Infratel and Indus Towers are the largest passive infrastructure serviceproviders for telecom services in India

Listings

Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE)National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE)

Customer Base (status as on March 31, 2012)

India & South Asia:

- 188,008,000 GSM mobile- 3,270,000 Telemedia customers and- 7,228,000 Digital TV ServicesAfrica:

- 53,140,000 GSM mobile customers.3.1 Business Divisions

3.1.1 India and South Asia

The operations of Bharti Airtel in India and South Asia are divided into two distinct Customer

Business Units (CBU) with clear focus on B2C (Business to Customer) and B2B (Business to

Business) segments. The B2C organization consists of Consumer Business and MarketOperations. The B2B business unit focuses on serving large corporates and carriers through

Bharti Airtels wide portfolio of telecommunication solutions

B2C ServicesMobile Services (India & South Asia): They offer mobile services using GSM technology in

South East Asia across India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, serving a total of 188 million customers

in these geographies.

Digital TV ServicesAirtel digital TV has 7.2 million customers on its Direct-To-Home (DTH)

platform. They also offer High Definition (HD) Set Top Boxes and Digital TV Recorders with

3D capabilities delivering superior customer experience.


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B2B Services

Airtel BusinessAirtel Enterprise Services has recently changed its identity to airtel business.Airtel business offers wide portfolio of services that include voice, data, network integration,

data center & managed services, enterprise mobile applications and digital media. It is Indias

leading and most trusted provider of communication and ICT services to large Enterprise,

Government, Small & Medium businesses and carrier customers.Passive Infrastructure ServicesBharti Infratel provides passive infrastructure services on a

non-discriminatory basis to all telecom operators in India. It deploys, owns and manages passive

infrastructure in 11 circles of India. Bharti Infratel also holds 42% share in Indus Towers (a JointVenture between Bharti Infratel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular). Indus Towers operates in 15

circles (4 circles common with Bharti Infratel, 11 circles on exclusive basis).

3.1.2 Africa

Mobile ServicesThey offer mobile services in 17 countries across Africa, namely: Nigeria,

Burkina Faso, Chad, Congo B, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Madagascar, Niger,Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Rwanda. This

makes Airtels footprint across Africa, the largest amongst all telecommunication service

providers in the continent. They continue to grow as the most loved brand and currently serve53.1 million customers across these geographies. They offer wide range of services to like post-

paid and pre-paid, roaming, One-Network, Airtel Money, internet services, content, media &

entertainment and other non-voice services. They have accelerated the rollout of 3G services bylaunching the services in 5 more countries this quarter; namely, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Kenya,

Nigeria and Tanzania. The company is now offering 3G services in 7 countries.

3.1.3 Partners

Strategic Equity Partners - They have a strategic alliance with SingTel, which has enabled

them to further enhance and expand Their telecommunications networks in India to providequality service to Their customers. The investment made by SingTel in Bharti is one of their

largest investments made in the world outside Singapore.Equipment and Technology Partners - They have long term strategic partnerships in all areas

including network equipment, information technology and call center technology building uponthe unique outsourcing business models They pioneered. Their business models have enabled

them to partner with global leaders who share Their drive for co-creating innovative and tailor-

made solutions for the markets They operate in. For 2G/2.5G & 3G network equipments, Theyhave partnered with Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) and Huawei for the markets in

India, Africa, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

3.2 Subsidiary Companies

As on March 31, 2011, Bharti Airtel has 113 subsidiary companies, in different countries across

the globe. These subsidiaries can be broadly classified into the following categories- Telecommunication Service Companies- Infrastructure Sharing companies- Mobile commerce service companies- DTH services- Investment companies


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3.3 Firm SWOT

Strength

- Operations in 23 circle in country. Maximum subscriber base way ahead of competitors- Highest no of towers by Airtel making it easier to launch 3G/4G services using the same

passive infrastructure making it cost competitive

- Strong brand pull- Strategic partnership (e.g. with SingTel that enables it to expand rapidly and get investment)

and others like technology, networks and infrastructure partnerships

- Quick to introduce technologies like 3G and Airtel Money and gaining first mover advantageWeakness

- Still majority of revenue from domestic market, need to globalize moreOpportunity

- Large untapped landscape Huge scope for growth in Rural India as well as Africa- New technologies like 3G/4G opening up new avenues for growth using VAS- Indian telecom industry is one of the fastest growing telecom market in the world and Airtel

is already market leader. Positioned for growth

Threat

- Regulatory environment- Increased competition may reduce market share and/or revenue- 2G spectrum re-allocation- Change in Govt policy on FDI in telecom sector, may allow big global players to enter Indian

market.- Number portability has enable competitors to switch customers at low cost.


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4. Valuation

Valuation_Airtel.xlsx


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5 Bibliography

1. Bharti Airtel Annual Reports (2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007)2. Bharti Airtel Quarterly Report (Q4 2012)3. Idea Cellular Annual Report (2012)4. Reliance Communications Quarterly Report (Q4 2012)5. www.moneycontrol.com6. www.nse.co.in7. www.economictimes.com8. www.tradingeconomics.com9. Investment Analysis and Portfolio ManagementReilly and Brown, 8th edition
http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.moneycontrol.com/http://www.nse.co.in/http://www.nse.co.in/http://www.economictimes.com/http://www.economictimes.com/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.economictimes.com/http://www.nse.co.in/http://www.moneycontrol.com/

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