Techvest Oct 2011 Presentation 10 25 11 Selection
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TechVest ECONOMIC REALITIES ECONOMIC REALITIES FOR A FALLING WORLD FOR A FALLING WORLD October 2011 October 2011
description
Update of TechVest Econometrics View of Deflationary Trends
Transcript of Techvest Oct 2011 Presentation 10 25 11 Selection
TechVest
ECONOMIC ECONOMIC REALITIES FOR A REALITIES FOR A FALLING WORLDFALLING WORLD
October 2011October 2011
TechVest
MismanagementMismanagement
Collapsing Collapsing the Private Economythe Private Economy
www.techvest.comwww.techvest.com
We are in a We are in a time of time of
desperatedesperate manipulationmanipulation
??Wither… Western Civ
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Unfunded Liabilities in EntitlementsUnfunded Liabilities in Entitlements
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Deflation
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Dawning DeflationDawning DeflationOctober 2011October 2011
Just Just Dawning: Dawning:
Hope is not Hope is not an an
Investment Investment StrategyStrategy
Just Just Dawning:Dawning:
Debt Debt Destroys Destroys
EquityEquity
Just Just Dawning:Dawning:
Borrowing Borrowing is is TakingTaking
Just Just Dawning:Dawning:
Government Government crowds out crowds out
Private Private SectorSector
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Govt Growth Inverts Long Term GDPGovt Growth Inverts Long Term GDPSimply: as government spending has gone up, economic growth has gone down.
KEYNESIANISM “WASTES” GDP
Just Just Dawning:Dawning:
Debt Debt Destroys Destroys
EquityEquity
Just Just Dawning:Dawning:
Debt Debt Destroys Destroys
EquityEquity
Asset Asset DeflationDeflation
(Credit Contraction)(Credit Contraction)
&&Cost InflationCost Inflation
(Consumption Cost Expansion)(Consumption Cost Expansion)
??Deflation Avoided or Coming?
The End of Inflation ?The End of Inflation ?Housing Started It All, that Deflation is Not Over
??Nowhere to Hide?Nowhere to Hide?
DeflationarySpiral
THINGSCANGET
WORSE!!!
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Deflation
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Problem: Keynesian Clue-Problem: Keynesian Clue-LessnessLessness
Congress without a Budget for 2.5 years
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Debt Problem Insoluble by Spending Debt Problem Insoluble by Spending FreezeFreeze
Interest Cost the Hidden Danger
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Investment Velocity – Debt Too Investment Velocity – Debt Too HighHigh
VELOCITY < 1.0 has ARRIVED
ZERO VELOCITY is IN 2014 ?
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Iceberg Excess Reserves – Rational Iceberg Excess Reserves – Rational FearFear
Global Global CoolingCooling
Deflation = Deflation = Deferred InflationDeferred Inflation
Freeze = Freeze = DeflationDeflation
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Debt Productivity – Frozen MoneyDebt Productivity – Frozen Money
VELOCITY < 1.0 has ARRIVED
ZERO VELOCITY is IN 2014 ?
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Endless Job Recession – Deeper and Endless Job Recession – Deeper and WiderWider
Far to Go …
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We are now following Hi-Debt Japan We are now following Hi-Debt Japan CurveCurve
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Fed Tax 2011 2010 Likely Max Possible~ Maximum Impact per $1m Profit
Estate Tax 0 55 55 -$550,000
Dividend Tax 15 20 39.5 -$150,000
Cap Gains 15 20 39.5 -$150,000200+ Income
Rate 35 39.5 44.9 -$100,000
MediCare Tax 0 3.8 3.8 -$38,000SSA 7.5%
Max 72k 150k No limit -$75,000
Net VAT Tax 0 1% 5% -$50,000Health Tax
/empl. 0 750 2000 -$2,000 ea
Inflation 4% 6% 10% -$100,000
Dollar Value PPP 100 90 80 -$200,000Gasoline Increase $3 $4 $5 -$20,000
EPA CO2 Tax 0 1% 2% -$20,000Deductions Reduction 1% 3% 5% -$50,000
Small-Biz Tax Increases: Wipe-Out of any Typical $1m Profit
TotalHit !93%+MoreTaxes
ITCANGET
WORSE!!!
??Currency Deflation
TechVestPart 2:Part 2:
HOW TO HOW TO AVOIDAVOIDDOOMDOOM
Higher Gold is Higher Gold is a Bad Signa Bad Sign
Is it already Is it already too late?too late?
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Gold is Hedge Against Gold is Hedge Against MismanagementMismanagement
GOLD = MONEY
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Gold is the New World CurrencyGold is the New World Currency
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BUT the Dollar CAN be Worth Gold BUT the Dollar CAN be Worth Gold !!
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Assume the Will to Reduce Assume the Will to Reduce Entitlements:Entitlements:
… IF there are jobs
false savings
considered too radical, but in fact the MOST we can do
insufficient
impossible
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Labor Force Growth – Good for the Labor Force Growth – Good for the USAUSA
… IF there are jobs
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Green = LT EconoSocial GrowthBlue = LT EconoSocial FreezeGray = LT EconoSocial DeclineRed = LT EconoSocial Flashpoint
World 25-year Outlook
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We are Our Own Worst EnemyWe are Our Own Worst Enemy
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We are Saudi Arabia and Libya in We are Saudi Arabia and Libya in OneOne
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The Little Engine That Could … The Little Engine That Could … RestartRestart
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Productive Engine That Could… Productive Engine That Could… TechnologyTechnology
SolutionsSolutionsChange the EngineChange the Engine
Stop BorrowingStop Borrowing
Energy & Energy & Technology Technology
Productivity WealthProductivity Wealth
Drill Baby Drill !!!Drill Baby Drill !!!
Sample Solutions:Sample Solutions:
• Balance BudgetBalance Budget• end Regulationsend Regulations• 75% 75% Jobs CreditJobs Credit
• cut Corporate Taxcut Corporate Tax• no Minimum Wageno Minimum Wage• Raise Interest RatesRaise Interest Rates• Suspend Davis-BaconSuspend Davis-Bacon• mandate job re-trainingmandate job re-training• enforce illegal-hiring lawsenforce illegal-hiring laws
• hire 200,000+ border guardshire 200,000+ border guards• restrict unemployment benefitsrestrict unemployment benefits
• eliminate accredited investor limitseliminate accredited investor limits
ITCANGET
BETTER!!!
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October 2011October 2011
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November 2011November 2011
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November 2011November 2011
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