technology mature

8/7/2019 technology mature

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Management of Technology, Innovation and Change

ASSIGNMENT REPORT ON

TECHNOLOGY MATURITY

SUBMITTED TO:- SUBMITTED BY:-

MR.

ENROLLMENT NO:-

TECHNIA INSTITUTE OF ADVANCEDSTUDIES

AFFILIATED TO GURU GOBINDSINGH UNIVERSITY


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Technology Maturity

A mature technology is a technology that has been in use for long enough that

most of its initial faults and inherent problems have been removed or reduced

by further development. In some contexts, it may also refer to technology which

has not seen widespread use, but whose scientific background is wellunderstood.

Key Indicators :-

One of the key indicators of a mature technology is the ease of use for both non -

experts and professionals.

Another indicator is a reduction in the rate of new breakthrough advances

related to it - whereas inventions related to a (popular) immature technology a reusually rapid and diverse, and may change the whole use paradigm - advances

to a mature technology are usually incremental improvements only.

The essence of technology mature! :-

We seek to identify and evaluate paths by which biomass can make significant

improvements in the sustainability and security of energy supply and utilization

in the most of the countries. In so doing, we are emphasizing mature

technology. Achieving a sustainable world, even by the most optimistic

estimates, will take many decades. Thus the question of evaluating the potential

role of a particular technology or resource in a sustainable world is necessarily a

question about the relatively distant future. A lot of effort could be applied, and

progress achieved, between now and then. In justifying such effort from a

public policy perspective, it is much more important to consider the features of

a technology that could eventually be realized rather than the features that are

achievable today. Likewise, in assessing the potential contribution of a

particular technology or resource to a sustainable world, it is as important to

know where we can reasonably expect to get as to know where we are. In our

opinion, mature technology scenarios have been under -utilized in energy

planning and analysis of alternative energy futures. Mature technology

scenarios, however well-justified, should not be confused with technologies

available for implementation today. Achieving performance and benefits

associated with mature technology will require a large and focused effort over a


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period of time. Estimating features of mature technology is a separate m atter

from envisioningmuch less enablingone or more technical paths leading to

mature technology, and is also separate from describing the societal transitions

associated with adoption of mature technologies in lieu of technologies in use

today. Significant transitions in the energy supply arena have always occurredover periods measured in decades in the past, and there is every reason to

believe that this will be the case in the future as well.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge that there is inhe rent uncertainty in

forecasting features of mature technology, regardless of the approach taken in

the effort. This uncertainty is present both with respect to individual

technologies and also with respect to comparison among mature technology

scenarios for two or more technologies. With a systematic approach such as that

presented in this memo, we are seeking to avoid some errors associated with

comparing technologies at different levels of maturity and to achieve some

degree of standardization among mature technology scenarios.

R&D Strategy.

Two key elements of a productive approach to meeting energy

Sustainability and security challenges are, in our view:

1) Identify technologies that have potential, upon completion of a specified

R&D path, to make significant contributions to meeting demand for energyservices in conjunction with societal objectives including sustainability,

security, and economic feasibility;

2) Aggressively pursue research and development on most if not all

technologies in this category in order to advance them toward commercial

readiness and to increase the certainty with which performance and cost can be

estimated.


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Stages of technology maturity :-

From a layman's perspective, the technological maturity can be broken d owninto five distinct stages.

1. Bleeding edge Any technology that shows high potential but hasn't demonstrated its

value or settled down into any kind of consensus. Early adopters maywin big, or may be stuck with a white elephant.

2. Leading edge A technology that has proven itself in the marketplace but is still new

enough that it may be difficult to find knowledgeable personnel to

implement or support it.

3. State of the art -

When everyone agrees that a particular technology is the right soluti on.

4. Dated -

Still useful, still sometimes implemented, but a replacement leading edge

technology is readily available.

5. Obsolete -

Has been superseded by state-of-the-art technology, maintained but nolonger implemented.

Most new technologies follow a similar technology maturity lifecycle

describing the technological maturity of a product. This is not similar to a

product life cycle, but applies to an entire technology, or a generation of a

technology.


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Technology adoption is the most common phenom enon driving the evolution of

industries along the industry lifecycle. After expanding new uses of resources

they end with exhausting the efficiency of those processes, producing gains that

are first easier and larger over time then exhaustingly more diffi cult, as the

technology matures.

Elaboration of the mature technology concept:-

A. Need for consistent cost accounting.

The estimated cost of any processing facility, regardless of its state of maturity,

can be strongly impacted by parameters of the c ost database and framework

used. Such parameters include the cost of equipment (bare module cost), the

cost of installation, return on investment, instrumentation and piping allowance,

overhead, construction and start -up time, maintenance, depreciation, as sumed

tax rate, business expenses, owners cost and profit, and working capital.

Different allowances for these factors could conceivably lead to large

differences in the estimated cost of two identical facilities evaluated within

different costing frameworks. Thus there is a strong need for consistent costaccounting when comparing different technologies.

B. Need to consider the same cost-impacting factors.

The cost of energy services delivered by mature technology is considered here,

recognizing that features in addition to cost (e.g. efficiency, pollution) are also

of interest for our project. Table 1 lists categories of cost factors applicable to a

technology as it progresses from initial conception to maturity. When analyzingmature configurations of different technologies, care should be taken to ensure

that the same categories of cost reduction factors are considered for each

technology.


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C. Calibration relative to existing mature technologies.

Existing mature technologies can, in some cases, provide a valuable calibration

standard for forecasts of potential improvements to currently immature

technologies. For example, consideration of the cost margin, representing theratio of value realized to the cost of raw materials, provides a framework for

evaluating the status of a given technology relative to the margin of existing

mature commodity processes. For this purpose, the relative process margin,

MR, can be defined as

MR!V(FE)

FE

where V denotes the value of all products sold, F denotes the cost of the primary

feedstock, and E denotes the cost of purchased, externally -produced process

energy, all in the unit of per ton feedstock.

Examples of mature technologies are:

Farming,most advances are in slight improvements of breeds or in pest reduction

Motor vehicle,

widely used by non-experts, the general principles have not changed for

decades

Telephone,

though considered mature, mobile phones showed a rare potential for

substantial changes even in such technologies

Firearm,

typified by assault rifle technology, most advances are slight improvements as

manufacturers alter balances between weight, firepower, range, and accuracy


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Examples of technologies not yet fully mature are:

Internet,

with still partly conflicting technological standards[3]

Computers,

becoming more mature due to advances in user -friendly operating systems

Economic models

(still showing high failure rates in economic prediction)

Examples of immature (as per the current scenario) technologies are:

Nanotechnology,

actual industrial applications limited so far

Manned space flight,

limited, failure-prone and uneconomic

Quantum computers,

so far mostly a theoretical concept

Nuclear fusion power,

mainly theoretical in practice as containment energy expenditure thus far

outweighs yielded energy

technology mature

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