Technology Management and Strategy [Part II]

Thanakrit [email protected]

Technology Management and Strategy [Part II]

- Aim to the conflict between the planning school and the process school of strategy has shaped the debate on strategy creation.

- This scenario-based approach to strategic planning leads to the formulation of a core strategy which is complemented by several strategic options that are derived from different strategic scenarios.

- Overall, frameworks for strategy creation which integrate the planning and the process perspectives of strategy have to fulfill four major requirements:Multiple options: different strategy options for the diversity of possible future developments.Multiple perspectives: viewpoints and information from diverse stakeholders in order to challenge existing assumptions.Systematic, tool-based process: clear process for which specific strategy tools are defined so that an easy and quick application

to practice is possible.Flexibility: Adaptable to different environmental conditions in order to ease application.

A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy

Torsten Wulf, Philip Meißner, Stephan StubnerThe Center for Scenario Planning, Leipzig Graduate School of Management, July 2010.

Overview of the scenario-based approach to strategic planning.



1. Definition of Scope: Framing Checklist

2. Perception Analysis: 360° Stakeholder Feedback (Survey instrument - available online and offline)

Three main goals drive this process step.

- To establish a comprehensive list of factors that potentially influence the future of the company.

- To evaluate these factors according to their potential performance impact and their degree of uncertainty.

- To benchmark perspectives of different stakeholder groups concerning these influencing factors.



3. Trend and Uncertainty Analysis: Impact/ Uncertainty Grid (for the German Photovoltaic Industry)



4. Scenario Building: Scenario Matrix

Three steps to describe in more details-Develop influence diagram for each scenario.-Develop a storyline for each scenario on the basis of the influence diagram.-Describe scenarios in full detail: Phoenix, Survival of the Fittest, Icarus, Go Green.

Simplified Influence Diagram for the German Photovoltaic Industry

Key Uncertainty 1 Key Uncertainty 2



5. Strategy Definition: Strategy Manual

-Strategy discussion around four important elements- Developments in the macro-environment.- Potential behavior of competitors and customers.- The intended positioning and competitive strategies of one’s own company.- The respective design of the value chain and action plans.- Determine for each scenario- Determine those developments of elements

6. Monitoring: Scenario Cockpit- Define important indicators for each scenario.- Determine value ranges for these indicators.- Constant monitoring of the defined indicators.

Scenario-Based Strategic Planning Process

Scenario-based Roadmapping – A Conceptual ViewFernando Lizaso and Guido Reger. University of Brandenburg, Germany.

EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods,Seville 13-14 May 2004

Six steps of science and technology roadmapping process by technology-push-requirements-pull approach

1.Roadmapping Preparation - Technology Roadmapping Architecture (TRMA)2. System Analysis - RDP steps (Product Planning, Product, Construction, Product Preparation, Product Testing) - Influence Matrix - System Grids - RPD key influence factors (Virtual or Physical Modelling and Prototyping, Reverse Engineering, Data Management, Change Management, etc.3.Scenario Projection - Projections-Portfolios4.Scenario Building - Consistence-Matrix, Cluster-Analysis5. Time Assessment

Roadmapping Process

- This paper aims at developing a new methodology that links both roadmapping and scenarios in order to plan the co-ordinated development and deployment of new and existing technologies and applications.

- Describing the process on the basis of Rapid Product Development (RPD) technologies for the automotive industry as an example.



Projection on Technology Potential



RPD – Technology Scenarios



Time assessment on technology performance S-curves



RPD Roadmap on the latest from 05 to 20 years



Scenarios (and Paths) Selection

Development and Application of Web-Based Technology Roadmap: QFD and Scenario Planning Approach

Kim, Ha Ye*, Park, Yong Tae** * Interdisciplinary Program in Technology and Management

** Department of Industrial Engineering College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. 2004.

Objective

1.Building more systematic roadmapping process- Qualify Function Deployment (QFD): Element selection, Customer-oriented

approach- Scenario Planning: Alternative strategic decision setting

2.Enhancing user conveniences- Web-based roadmapping system




Phase 1. Roadmap Framing




Phase 2. Roadmap Creation




Phase 3. Strategic Reanalysis




Structure Design




Screen Design

Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production Ozcan Saritas and Jonathan Aylen

Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) P.1061–1075.

Objective: To develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability “clean production” for the European CLEANPROD project.

Five mental acts of Foresight

The place and function of scenarios and roadmapping in the overall Foresight methodology



Combining scenarios and roadmapping

1.Using scenarios ‘before’ the roadmapping exercise- Scenarios are part of the preparatory activities for roadmapping.- Help to identify what constant (presumptive anomalies) may fail in the future.- Might indicate a radical change of approach.

2.Using scenarios ‘during’ the roadmapping exercise- Represent alternatives routes in the form of internally consistent narratives, or

vignettes.

3.Using scenarios ‘after’ the roadmapping exercise.- Scenarios are tools to both test the robustness of roadmaps and develop an overall

picture of the way ahead.



“B” — or “before” scenarios are used before the actual roadmapping exercise starts. These are mainly the baseline scenarios which provide context for the roadmap. They inform roadmaps about the future developments in the Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological and Technological developments and Values (STEEPV).

“D” — or “during” scenarios are developed during the roadmapping exercise. These might be in the form of “vignettes”, which illustrate one or more components of the roadmap in detail. There are usually more than one “D” scenario involved in the roadmapping exercise. they cover a fairly narrow range of technical possibilities, perhaps a specific trajectory of development linking technology “T” to the market “M”.

“R” is the “overall” scenario of the roadmap. It brings together a range of D scenarios/vignettes in an internally consistent way and provides an overview of the overall roadmap. R scenario constitutes the body of the roadmap.



“Before” scenariosset the context for roadmaps.

Setting the context with “before” scenarios



CLEANPROD roadmaps.



CLEANPROD roadmaps (continued).



Testing robustness with “after” scenarios

In order to test robustness of he roadmap, two individual scenarios were picked out, based on the extent to which socioeconomic attitudes and governance become either more individual or more collective.

Global Economy — Business as Usual is the most individualised, ungoverned scenario: here global competition is cost-driven, with R&D helping to sustain leading-edge products. But the uptake of nanotechnology disappoints and progress on sustainability and the environment is incremental.

Sustainable Times — Integrated Breakthrough scenario assumes both a high degree of acceptance by individuals of the need for sustainability and sophisticated public pricing mechanisms to cope with “externalities”.

It is clear that some of the incremental improvements selected for technical development under the “Business as Usual” scenario are not worth funding under the “Sustainable Times” outlook.



“Overall” scenarios and policy proposals

From Future Scenarios to Roadmapping: A practical guide to explore innovation and strategy

Lykke Margot Ricard and Kristian Borch, Technical University of Denmark. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA).

12-13 May 2011

“While Participatory scenario-making provides visions for multiple futures - a roadmap only operate with one vision. Our contribution with this paper is to bridge the flexibility of multiple visions of scenarios with the action-oriented roadmap.”

Case of the FTA exercise-A group of lead engineers, technology managers or a division involved in exploring innovation and future developments (20-30 persons) from a company – public or private. -The group has some insight in the present strategies and challenges of the company. -The STEEPV model for trends and drivers up to 2025 is used to facilitate the construction of four future scenarios. -The four scenarios are constructed based on two identified uncertainties and a number of market drivers.

Question: Which set of multiple futures might be likely and how can the company prepare for all of them?

From Future Scenarios to Roadmapping: A practical guide to explore innovation and strategy

Lykke Margot Ricard and Kristian Borch, Technical University of Denmark. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA).

12-13 May 2011

- The vision is explained as a picture of the company’s position in each scenario. - Synthesize the four visions into one common vision which the following participatory technology

roadmapping exercise could build upon.- A common vision is established in plenum. In plenum the group is presented to a framework of the

strategic landscape.

Design of the roadmap and structure

Four scenarios, four visions

Technology Management and Strategy [Part II]

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