TECHNOLOGY ENERGY Energy Technology Perspectives...

© OECD/IEA - 2006

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ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

Energy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology Perspectives

Scenarios and Strategies to 2050Scenarios and Strategies to 2050Scenarios and Strategies to 2050Scenarios and Strategies to 2050

NIES WorkshopDeveloping Visions for a Low Carbon Society

through Sustainable Development

Michael TaylorEnergy Technology Policy Division

International Energy Agency

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

G8 - Gleneagles CommuniquéJuly 2005

“IEA will advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive

energy future”.

Take part in dialogue, including developing countries

14 international programmes focussed on energy efficiency (buildings, appliances, industry, transport), clean coal, renewables and R&D collaboration

Reports to Japanese G8 Presidency in 2008

World Energy Outlook

World Primary Energy Demand

Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the 60% growth in energy demand between now and 2030

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear power

Hydro power

Other renewables

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Global CO2 Emissionsin the Reference & Alternative Scenarios

CO2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative scenario in

2030.

Improved energy efficiency contributes more

than half to this gap.

16%

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mill

ion

tonne

s o

f C

O 2

Coal Oil Gas Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario


But this is not enoughBut this is not enough……



Publication date 22 June


Publication date 22 June

Energy Technology Perspectives 2006

� Contributes to the IEA

response to the G8 Plan of

Action (“Advising on

scenario strategies aimed at

a clean, clever and

competitive energy future”)

� This innovative work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050.


What ETP builds onWhat ETP builds onWhat ETP builds onWhat ETP builds on

� IEAs multi-year ETP project, supported via Voluntary Contributions from Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US

� Past work on the WEO Alternative Policy Scenarios

� Extensive information base from previous ETO analyses and from IEA’s Technology Network

� Substantial input from acrossthe IEA and from a

long list of external experts


ETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 Focus

� Status and perspectives for key energy technologies in different sectors

� Global scenario analysis to illustrate how technologies can make a difference� Individual scenarios differ in terms of assumptions for nuclear, CCS,

renewables, advanced biofuels, hydrogen fuel cells and energy efficiency progress

� Technology Strategies:� How much can different technologies deliver?

� By when can they deliver?

� What barriers have to be overcome to make them deliver both in the short term and over the next 3-5 decades?

� Pathways to overcome barriers


Accelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology Scenarios(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)

�A family of scenarios to demonstrate how technologies that are already commercial or under development can help towards a sustainable energy future

�All scenarios analyse the impact from measures to accelerated R&D, demonstration and deployment efforts as well as measures aimed at giving incentives for low-carbon technologies


Stronger cost Stronger cost Stronger cost Stronger cost

reductions & reductions & reductions & reductions &

improved improved improved improved

feedstock feedstock feedstock feedstock

availabilityavailabilityavailabilityavailability

Breakthrough Breakthrough Breakthrough Breakthrough

for FCfor FCfor FCfor FC


reductions & reductions & reductions & reductions &

technology technology technology technology

improvementsimprovementsimprovementsimprovements


reductionsreductionsreductionsreductionsTECH PlusTECH PlusTECH PlusTECH Plus

0.3% p.a. less 0.3% p.a. less 0.3% p.a. less 0.3% p.a. less

improvementimprovementimprovementimprovementLow EfficiencyLow EfficiencyLow EfficiencyLow Efficiency

No CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCS

Lower public Lower public Lower public Lower public

acceptanceacceptanceacceptanceacceptanceLow NuclearLow NuclearLow NuclearLow Nuclear

Slower cost Slower cost Slower cost Slower cost

reductionsreductionsreductionsreductionsLow Low Low Low RenewablesRenewablesRenewablesRenewables

EndEndEndEnd----use use use use

efficiencyefficiencyefficiencyefficiency

Advanced Advanced Advanced Advanced

biofuelsbiofuelsbiofuelsbiofuelsHHHH2222 fuel cellsfuel cellsfuel cellsfuel cellsCCSCCSCCSCCSNuclearNuclearNuclearNuclearRenewablesRenewablesRenewablesRenewablesScenarioScenarioScenarioScenario

Technology AssumptionsTechnology Assumptions

(relative to Map Scenario)(relative to Map Scenario)


Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline ScenarioBaseline Scenario

Emissions increase dramatically by 2050

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2003 Baseline 2030

(WEO 2005)

Baseline 2050

Mt

CO

2

Buildings

Other

Transport

Industry

Transformation

Power Generation

+137%


Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline and Map ScenarioBaseline and Map Scenario

Map Scenario: Emissions returned towards today’s level

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2003 Baseline 2030

(WEO 2005)

Baseline 2050 Map

Mt

CO

2

Buildings

Other

Transport

Industry

Transformation

Power Generation

+6%

ACT Scenarios 2050

+137%


Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline and ACT ScenariosBaseline and ACT Scenarios

Impact of not having CCS available

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2003 Baseline 2030

(WEO 2005)

Baseline 2050 Map No CCS

Mt

CO

2

Buildings

Other

Transport

Industry

Transformation

Power Generation

+6%

+21%

ACT Scenarios 2050

+137%


Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline and ACT ScenariosBaseline and ACT Scenarios

Impact of less efficiency progress

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2003 Baseline 2030

(WEO 2005)

Baseline 2050 Map No CCS Low Efficiency

Mt

CO

2

Buildings

Other

Transport

Industry

Transformation

Power Generation

+6%

+21%+27%

ACT Scenarios 2050

+137%


Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline, ACT and TECH plus ScenariosBaseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios

TECH Plus: More optimistic on progress for certain key

technologies

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2003 Baseline 2030

(WEO 2005)

Baseline 2050 Map No CCS Low Efficiency TECH Plus

2050

Mt

CO

2

Buildings

Other

Transport

Industry

Transformation

Power Generation

+6%

+21% +27%

-16%

ACT Scenarios 2050

+137%


Emission Reduction by Technology AreaEmission Reduction by Technology Area

ACT Map ScenarioACT Map Scenario

Improved energy efficiency most important contributor to reduced emissions

Fuel mix in buildings

and industry

8%

Other renewables

6%

Biomass

2%

Fossil fuel generation

efficiency

1%

Nuclear

6%

Coal to gas

5%

Hydropower

2%

CCS

12%

Power

Generation

34%

End-use efficiency

44%

Biofuels in transport

6%

CCS in fuel

transformation

3%

CCS in industry

5%


Key Messages

�A more sustainable energy future is possible with known technology

�The costs are not disproportional

�But it will require sustained effort and investment by both the public and private sector in developed and

developing countries



Key Messages�We can return carbon emissions to

their current level by 2050

�We can halve the growth of oil demand

�We can move onto a pathway that will stabilise CO2 in the atmosphere at “sustainable levels”

�And this is consistent with continued rapid growth of energy demand in the developing World



Key Messages

�Most energy still comes from fossil fuels in 2050

�We can substantially decarbonisethe power sector by 2050

�Decarbonising transport will take longer but must be achieved in the second half of the century



Key Messages� Energy efficiency is paramount� Also very important:

�Carbon Capture and Storage�Renewables�Nuclear – where acceptable

� Urgent action is required in public and private sectors:�Enhanced R & D�Demonstration and deployment�Clear and predictable incentives



Implementing the ACT Scenarios

Policy ImplicationsPolicy Implications

�Energy efficiency is top priority

�Well focused R&D programs are essential

�Transition from R&D to deployment is critical

�Need for predictable long-term incentives for low-carbon technologies

�Non-economic barriers need attention

�A huge and coordinated international effort

�The task is urgent


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