High Impact Technology Update

By Brian Wang

Nov 15, 2008

Overview• Energy

– Nuclear, Wind, Solar• Computers

– Quantum Computers, Supercomputers, Optical• Nanotechnology

– DNA Nano, Synthetic Bio, Mechanosynthesis, APM• Claytronics, Programmable Matter, Brain Emulation• Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology• Biomarkers, Medicine• Life Extension, Enhancement• Robotics, Communication, Cameras, Sensors• Space• Putting it all Together

– Tech Controversy, Plans and Predictions

Energy Tech

• Nuclear Fission– Mass produced, Annular Fuel

• Nuclear Fusion• Biofuels• Energy Efficiency• Wind – Kitegen• Solar –Concentrated solar

– Coolearth, SunRGI, MIT

• Blacklight Power

World Energy

• 26 Trillion to be spent on energy infrastructure• 26 billion tons of CO2 going to 40 billion tons in 2030• Unless changes are made• More economic growth and more wealth needs more energy and resources• $60 billion for California alone to get to 33% renewables (solar, wind, geothermal etc…)

Mass Produced Deep Burn Nuclear Fission

• Hyperion Power Generation• China’s High Temperature Reactor• AP1000 Factories• Fuji Molten Salt Reactor• Russian Breeder Reactor• Power Uprating, 80 year life [small

ball baseball]• New build mainly in China, Russia,

India, Brazil• 373 GW + 350 GW conventional +

150 GW 2025 + 60GW uprates

Nuclear Fusion• Inertial Electrostatic Fusion• Focus Fusion• General Fusion• Colliding Beam Fusion• Laser Fusion• 80% on IEC and Colliding

Beam 2014-2020• Tough to meaningfully scale for

impact before 2025 but could start impact on space access

Biofuels from Seaweed, Algae, Fungus, Weeds and Waste

• Regular Crops• Seaweed (Japan, Indonesia)• Algae• Weeds

– Jatropha (India)– Camelina (Canada)

• Fungus• Waste (Coskata and others)

– E10 blend wall– Biobutonal Bu16 (up to 22 billion gallons)– More E85 flex fuel and flex in general– 36 billion gallon US target 2022, 140 billion gallons US, 600

billion gallons worldwide

More Efficient Engines and lighter vehicles• Diesel

– ecomotors

• Free Piston Engine

• Reduce weight by 60% and improve fuel efficiency 30%

• Hybrids and Electrics

• Ultracapacitors

Superconductors and Thermoelectrics

• Industrial engines coming from South Korea• Smaller and more efficient• Actual deployment for electric grid• Prospects for room temperature

superconductors• Thermoelectrics utilize waste heat. Better AC,

refrigerators, up car efficiency 10-30% gain in overall efficiency of entire energy infrastructure

• Capturing waste heat for aluminum and industrial processes would be big

Faster Computers –Exaflops/Zettaflops

- Tensilica- GPGPUs- Onchip Photonic

Communication- All Digital Radios- Trigate/EUV/CNT FET- 3D stackable chips- New Memory

Quantum Computers• Scaling up to thousands of qubits in

2009. 2007 was 16 qubits.• This qubit implemention not fully

connected (may need to square the number of qubits)

• What are the quantum algorithms?• How much better are the answers ?

What are the answers without Ok approximations – Relates to AGI. We have better answers now that go unimplemented

• Major impact would be faster molecular nanotech development from bigger and better quantum simulations

Transformation Optics• Transformation optics is a field of

optical and material engineering and science embracing nanophotonics, plasmonics, and optical metamaterials.

The list of possible breakthroughs includes a cloak of invisibility; computers and consumer electronics that use light instead of electronic signals to process information [optical computers]; a "planar hyperlens" that could make optical microscopes 10 times more powerful and able to see objects as small as DNA; advanced sensors; and more efficient solar collectors.

DNA Sequencing• $5000 for a genome available early 2009

(already announced)• $1000 or less 2009-2011• $100 or less 2011-2014• Over 99% of bacteria not identified (dirt,

oceans, our bodies – does not grow in petri dish)

• Faster and cheaper sequencing helps synthesis• Totally synthetic life: 582,000 BP• California Institute of Technology, led by

biomolecular engineer Niles Pierce, has created a DNA-based fabricator.

DNA Nanotechnology• Structural DNA (3D patterns)

– DNA assembled one million 15nm gold nanoparticles

• DNA optical wires• IBM: DNA make CNT grid• Building other stuff with DNA• DNA Nanotech device projects

– Sensors, antennas, surgery– Turning cells into DNA nanotech

factories (trillions of copies)

• DNA robotic arms• DNA Sewing machine

Atomically Precise Manufacturing and Mechanosynthesis

• Zyvex APM– Perfect quantum dots (hundreds to millions)– Micro Automation

• Parallel micro-assembly

– Molecularly Precise Tools– Patterned Atomic Layer Epitaxy

• Single atom layer with precise removals as needed before next layer

• Philip Mortiarty funded– Verify Freitas and Merkle Mechanosynthesis

Claytronics and Programmable Matter/Avogadro Computers

• Intel’s and CMU Claytronics

• MIT Avogradro Computing

Brain Emulation

• Brain emulation roadmap

• Rat brain simulation using 30 teraflops

• We have 1.3 petaflops sustained

• Human scale level 4 emulation needs about 36 petaflops

Materials – Carbon Nanotubes, Graphene, Diamond

• Carbon Nanotubes– Meter long strands– Multi-thousand ton factories ~2012

• Graphene– Strong– Higher volume production

• Diamond– Kilocarats

• 1.5 Billion tons of steel (2009)• 2.5 billion tons of concrete

– carbon fiber 46,000 tons 2009 88,000 tons 2015

• New states of matter

Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology

• Gene Therapy– All muscle cells in a dog– Could be used to transfer

Aids/HIV immunity

• Transgenics– Higher Food production

• Stem Cells

• Synthetic biology

Biomarkers, cheap tests and real cures

• Canary Foundation goal: early detection tests for solid tumor cancers by 2015

• Effective early cancer tests could save over $50 billion (out of $89 billion) per year in medical costs and 400,000 lives each year in the USA and 5 million lives around the world. 7 million cancer deaths/yr worldwide.

• Proven with pap smear ($8) and cervical cancer (70% reduction)

• Other cheap blood and other biomarker test devices (other diseases and medical threats)

Life Extension

• Resveratrol, sirtuin

• Telomerase

• SENS project

Human Enhancement

• Immune System Enhancement

• DARPA Work

• Curing Obesity

• Regeneration

• Tissue Engineering from scaffolds

• Brain Computer Interfaces

Robotics, Prosthestics, Exoskeletons, UAVs, Robotic Cars

• Needed for safe flying cars and to correct safety flaws of automobiles and fix transportation

• Blood Stream Robots – pill to Bacteria size from several research groups and nanoparticles and macroparticles

• Heartland Robotics – Rodney Brooks– I want to effect a powerful evolution in the world's labor markets, and my

current focus is to develop low-cost robots that will empower American workers

High Speed Communication

• White space modems 100 Mbps• Wireless 1 Gbps + • Free space lasers• 60Ghz 5 Gbps Taiwan chip <$1

– Better encoding go to 20 Gbps

• Terabit optical internet

Better Video, Still Cameras and Holograms

• Red Camera Company

Controversial Technology

• EmDrive• Blacklight Power

• IEC Fusion• Focus Fusion

• Dwave Systems• Molecular Nanotech• AGI

Space

• Solar Electric sail• Vasimr• SpaceX• Virgin Galactic• Lunar Concrete• Fuel Depots• Portable nuclear• Telescopes

Technology to Change the World is Hard

• What we think should be amazing may only effect a niche

• Need to have something that has good economics and rapidly scalable deployment

• Functionality for you personally• Scaling for world impact• Micro/Macro future• Complete solutions

– Resist adoption because of world-view, self-image, image that others have, old way good enough etc…

You Get What You Pay For

• Vast waste is a problem (It is easy to piss away trillions and years on nothing)

• Individuals buying movies, books, toys will get better or more of the same

• Over one trillion spent on “space” but how much on actually flying stuff and how much on building infrastructure to make things cheaper or to have real space industry

• Assume we have to better plans, work to get it, find a way to improve odds of good result and faster results

Choices and Better Systems• Anti-growth, anti-technology and anti-

business, over-regulation and corruption can still slow development

• Even for greater than human intelligence – stupid and wrong are powerful opponents

• Beat the variable cost including the cost and effort to change out the old stuff

Revamping Manufacturing and Construction

• Contour Crafting• Rapid Manufacturing and

Prototyping• Reel to Reel Production• Business choices and

processes and training, city zoning and policies, architects, construction industry

Better Strategies for Dealing with Problems

• Energy• CO2 and global warming• Water • Pollution• Tougher construction – nails, better concrete,

domes, future materials• Robust Civilization – can’t let vulnerabilities and

problems fester• Get tough and spread out to space

How Much ?

1. Economic abundance2. Radical life extension3. Physical and Cognitive enhancement4. Automation, Robots, exoskeletons5. Super-materials6. Open Access to space7. Pollution elimination8. Computer/Intelligence Advancement9. Towards programmable matter

General Predictions• 2009-2015 Perfecting of the now and old,

prototype breakthroughs– Billion super-iPhones

• Walking around Internet browsing, voice-text blogging

• Terascale with gigabit per second networking

– Power Harvesting from regenerative braking on human walking and thermoelectrics

• 2016-2025 New tech breaks out with big impact

Convergence• Scavenge energy from the

body• Efficient devices could

always be on using 9-20W• Functionalize the microbes of

the body– Engineered microbes could

generate power or store power or could have compute capabilities