Technology and the Future of Work

The State of the Debate

June 4th, 2015

What are we trying to explain?Change in wages (1963-2008)

Job Polarization1980-2005

Employment growth by occupational mean wage

Wage growth by occupational mean wage

Source: David Autor and David Dorn, “The Growth of Low Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market,” Dec 2012.

Job loss and Growth(2008-2012)

Institutionalists

Source: Larry Mishel, Heidi Shierholz, and John Schmitt, “Don’t Blame the Robots”, Nov 2013.

How tech is reorganizing work

Forecasting the future of workFour lines of debate

1. Technology optimists vs. pessimists2. Specific tasks matter3. Maintain focus on policy and politics4. New forms of work and the rise of the second economy

Debate #1: How real are these robots, anyway?

Debate #2: What jobs will disappear?

Source: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne. “The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?” Sept 2013.

Debate #3: Tech talk is a distraction

Source: Kris Warner, “Protecting Fundamental Labor Rights: Lessons from Canada for the United States.” Aug 2012.

Debate #3: Tech talk is a distraction

RTW-Social-Share-Iceberg.jpg

Debate #4: Is everything changing?

RTW-Social-Share-Iceberg.jpg

Source: Denise Cheng, “Barriers to Growth in the Sharing Economy.” Jan 2015.

Debate #4: Is everything changing?

RTW-Social-Share-Iceberg.jpg

Source: Lori Lobenstine and Kenneth Bailey, “Redlining the Adjacent Possible: Youth and Communities of Color Face the (not) New Future of (not) Work.” Jan 2015.

Debate #4: Is everything changing?

RTW-Social-Share-Iceberg.jpg

Source: Lori Lobenstine and Kenneth Bailey, “Redlining the Adjacent Possible: Youth and Communities of Color Face the (not) New Future of (not) Work.” Jan 2015.

Policy solutions depend on how you frame the problem

• Education– Early childhood, K-12, life long learning

• Institutional change– Improve labor power, regulate financial system,

promote public investment, change tax structure• A new social contract for a new economy– Universal basic income, revamp NLRA, expanded

social supports, increased public investment in technology