TECHNOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL MITIGATION POTENTIALS AND OPPORTUNITIES
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TECHNOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL MITIGATION POTENTIALS AND OPPORTUNITIES major findings from the IPCC WG III contribution to the Third Assessment Report JOSÉ ROBERTO MOREIRA Biomass Users Network - Brazil CLA Chapter 3 WG III July 18, 2001
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TECHNOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL MITIGATION POTENTIALS AND OPPORTUNITIES major findings from the IPCC WG III contribution to the Third Assessment Report JOSÉ ROBERTO MOREIRA Biomass Users Network - Brazil CLA Chapter 3 WG III July 18, 2001. NO SHORTAGE OF FOSSIL FUELS. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of TECHNOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL MITIGATION POTENTIALS AND OPPORTUNITIES
TECHNOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL MITIGATION POTENTIALS AND
OPPORTUNITIES
major findings from the IPCC WG III contribution to the Third Assessment
Report
JOSÉ ROBERTO MOREIRA
Biomass Users Network - Brazil
CLA Chapter 3 WG III
July 18, 2001
W o r l d C O 2 E m i s s i o n s b y R e g i o n
S o u r c e : I E A , 2 0 0 0 .
0
1 . 0 0 0
2 . 0 0 0
3 . 0 0 0
4 . 0 0 0
5 . 0 0 0
6 . 0 0 0
7 . 0 0 0
8 . 0 0 0
1 9 7 1 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 8
Carb
on D
ioxide
Emiss
ions (
MtC)
M i d d l e E a s t
L a t i n A m e r i c a
A f r i c a
D e v . C o s . i n A s i a - P a c i f i c
E c o n o m i e s i n T r a n s i t i o n
I n d u s t r i a l i z e d C o u n t r i e s
NO SHORTAGE OF FOSSIL FUELS
Per capita CO2 emission and GDP for some countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Year
Oil Crisis
Econ. Reform
USSR Collapse
0
5
1010
15
20
25
30
35
thousands of 1990US$PPP/captCO2/cap
DECOUPLING BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND C EMISSION HAS OCCURRED BUT NOT ENOUGH
USA
ChinaJapan
Former USSR
Per capita CO2 emission and GDP for some countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Year
Oil Crisis
Econ. Reform
USSR Collapse
0
5
1010
15
20
25
30
35
thousands of 1990US$PPP/captCO2/cap
DECOUPLING BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND C EMISSION HAS OCCURRED BUT NOT ENOUGH
ENERGY RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR - WORLD 1971-2020
1140 1273 1450 1542 1646 1732 1820 1913 2011 2113 2221
1653 1796 2094 2110 2293 2340 2387 2435 2484 2534 2586
672 760 862 925 1078 1215 1368 1540 1734 1952 2198
103 120 159 186 210 217 224 230 237 245 252
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Building industry Transportation Agriculture
TRANSPORTATION IS A MAJOR CONCERN
Mitigation options
• Energy efficiency• Decarbonisation
– energy sources– CO2 removal and storage
• Biological carbon sequestration
• Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management
W e ig h t e d A v e r a g e F u e l C o n s u m p t io n o f N e wP a s s e n g e r C a r s
6
7
8
9
1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5
G e r m a n y A u st r i a B e l g i u m F r a n c e
I ta l y U K S w e d e n A v e r a g e
l / 1 0 0 k m
GHG emissions per kilometer for different vehicle technologies
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Ref.Gasoline
CNG
20% biodiesel
Hybrid
Electric vehicle (US mix)
Fuel cell (gasoline)
Fuel cell (methanol)
Electric vehicle (Cal. Mix)
Fuel cell (solar H2)
Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001
gCeq/km
D evelopm en t of in d ustria l en ergy u se - in term s ofp rim ary en ergy - in th e d ifferen t w orld reg ion s.
.
0 .00
10 .00
20 .00
30 .00
40 .00
50 .00
60 .00
70 .00
Prim
ary
ener
gy d
eman
d (E
J)
In d u s tria liz e d C o u n trie s E c o n o m ie s in T ra n s itio n D e v .C o s . in A s ia -P a c ific
A fric a L a tin A m e ric a M id d le E a s t
Mitigation options
• Energy efficiency
• Decarbonisation
–energy sources– CO2 removal and storage
• Biological carbon sequestration
• Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management
Long term technical potential renewable and nuclear energy supply
Nuclear 77-4620 EJ/yr on average over 100 years
2100 Total EnergyDemand for SRESscenario ranges515-2737 EJ/yr
Long-term Technical Potential(EJ/yr)
Hydro >50Geothermal >20Wind >630Ocean >20Solar >1600Biomass >440Total Renewable >2800
Mitigation options
• Energy efficiency
• Decarbonisation– energy sources
–CO2 removal and storage• Biological carbon sequestration
• Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management
Carbon dioxide storage capacitiesReservoir type Global capacity (GtC)Disused oil fields 100Disused gas fields 400Deep salinereservoirs
> 1000
Unminable coalmeasures
40
Deep ocean > 1000Total > 2500
Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001
Emissions to be avoided: 300-1500 GtC up to 2100
Mitigation options
• Energy efficiency• Decarbonisation
– energy sources– CO2 removal and storage
• Biological carbon sequestration
• Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management
Biological mitigation potential: 100GtC up to 2050
Emissions to be avoided: 300-1500 GtC upto 2100
Mitigation options• Energy efficiency
• Decarbonisation– energy sources– CO2 removal and storage
• Biological carbon sequestration
• Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management
E stim a ted g lo b a l co n su m p tio n o f C F C s, h a lo n s, H C F C s a n d H F C s(M cF a r la n d , 1 9 9 9 )
0
4 0 0
8 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 6 0 0
1 98 0
1 98 1
1 98 2
1 98 3
1 98 4
1 98 5
1 98 6
1 98 7
1 98 8
1 98 9
1 99 0
1 99 1
1 99 2
1 99 3
1 99 4
1 99 5
1 99 6
1 99 7
Qua
ntit
y (T
hou
sand
Ton
s)
C FC s h a lon s H C FC s H FC s
Mitigation potential till 2020(cost<$100/tC)
Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001
Compare to: 3,000-15,000 MtC/yr average to be avoided over 100 years
SRES Range
Technological Opportunities
2000 2010 2020
Car
bon
Equ
ival
ent E
mis
sion
s
Technology improvements have the potential to reduce emissions by 2010 and 2020 to levels below
those in 2000
Conclusions• Technologies are available in the short
term to stop the growth of global GHG emissions
• Technologies are available today to mitigate climate change in the long term
• The real problem of controlling emissions is to overcome the many political, economic, social and behavioural barriers to implementing mitigation options
