Techniques for Running Large Numbers of Scenarios in TIMES
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Transcript of Techniques for Running Large Numbers of Scenarios in TIMES
Overview
Background – Why we developed the technique
Applications – How is current model improved by this new technique
Sensitivity Analysis Example
Monte Carlo Analysis Example
Schematics – How to use the technique to batch generate scenarios
BackgroundNTR Project: Our 2050 – Opportunities for Ireland In A Low Carbon Economy
Model: Irish TIMES modelTarget: Examine Irish energy system and Identify Robust TechnologiesApproach: Run large number of scenarios incorporating constraints and uncertaintiesIssue: VEDA does not facilitate scenario batch generation (Proposal Rejected)Outcome: We Developed Scenario Generator Tool as Workaround
Application - Sensitivity Analysis
• Use Irish TIMES Model
• Fix ETS Carbon Tax
• Vary NETS Carbon Tax
• Effect on total emissions
Simple Scenario Approach
Difficult to Choose Proper Scenarios
Only Provide Point Estimates
More Difficult to Make Decisions
Extensive Sensitivity Analysis
Full Trends of Results
Identify tipping points
Target “interesting” Scenarios
Application - Sensitivity Analysis
Total Final Consumption by Sector
Reduced Consumption in Transport Sector
Transport by Mode
Fossil Fuel Consumption Halved
Increased Electricity and Biofuel
Biofuels Import
Biofuel Import Doubled with 12% increase in carbon tax
Application - Monte Carlo Analysis• Applicable to a variety of energy
systems models (ESME, Markal, Answer)
• Combine Effects from all Uncertain Parameters
• Quantify Uncertainties
Application - Monte Carlo Analysis
• Use Irish TIMES Model
• Fixed ETS Tax
• Triangular Distributions for 2030 and 2050 NETS Targets
• Run Model 500 Times
• Output NETS CO2 Price
• Can we meet the target under certain costs?
2030 NETS Reduction TargetTriangular (15%, 25%, 35%)
2050 NETS Reduction TargetTriangular (60%, 80%, 100%)
VEDA System.dd & .RUN – Assemble TIMES Model inputs
.GDX – Contain Inputs and solutions to GAMS
.LST – Equation List
.LOG – Report Information
.VD – Solution files for VBE
Key Challenges• VEDA-FE processes scenarios one by one –
How to automate the Scenario generation process
• VEDA-BE unable to process large number of scenarios –How to handle results in millions/billions
• VEDA-BE can only export graph for one scenario –How to generate templates for graphing purposes
Multi-Scenario System1. Run base case scenario
with deterministic values
2. Use Scenario Generator to Define Stochastic Values
3. Run scenarios in batch
4. Use VBE or SQL server for results handling
Scenario Generator
1. Import the .dd filecontaining uncertain parameters
2. Import .RUN file
3. Specify number of iterations, output folders and GAMS folders
Scenario Generator4. Assign values to uncertain
parameters on spreadsheet
5. Generate one .CMD file and a list of .RUN and .dd files
6. .CMD runs all scenarios in batch
Define Distributions for Monte Carlo Simulation
Define Deterministic Listfor Sensitivity Analysis
Result Handling with SQL Server
1. Import .VD Table with PowerShell
2. Create Table Templates with SQL Queries