TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li,...

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Estimtin Eduction Dmnd in Cli, Colombi Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez Mrch 2019 TECHNICAL NOTE GPSS Globl Prorm for Sfr Schools

Transcript of TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li,...

Page 1: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi!Pedro Cerdan-InfantesFrancisco Zavala GarciaJuan Camilo Suárez Gómez

M!rch 2019

TECHNICAL NOTE

GPSS Glob!l Pro"r!m for S!f#r Schools

Page 2: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Rights and Permissions

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Contents

Page 4: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

T_bv� |;1_mb1-Ѵ� mo|;� �-v� ru;r-u;7� 0�� |_;�)ouѴ7� �-mhĽv� �7�1-ঞom� |;-l� -v� r-u|� o=�|_;��-Ѵb�"-=;u�"1_ooѴv�$;1_mb1-Ѵ��vvbv|-m1;ĺ��|� ru;v;m|v� |_;� u;v�Ѵ|v� o=� |_;� -m-Ѵ�vbv��m7;u|-h;m� |o� 1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-|;� |_;�ruof;1ঞomv� =ou�

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Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA 5

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Page 6: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA6

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Year Births ;-|_v �;|��b]u-ঞomѵ

2006 ƕƐƓķƓƔƏ ƐƖƑķѶƐƓ Ŋ�ƐƓƑķƑѵƒ

2007 ƕƏƖķƑƔƒ ƐƖƒķƖƒѵ Ŋ�ƐѵƖķƏƐƒ

ƑƏƏѶ ƕƐƔķƓƔƒ ƐƖѵķƖƓƒ Ŋ�ƐƒƔķƑƐѵ

ƑƏƏƖ ѵƖƖķƕƕƔ ƐƖѵķƖƒƒ Ŋ��ƕƖķƔѵƔ

2010 ѵƔƓķѵƑƕ ƑƏƏķƔƑƓ Ŋ�ƐƏѶķƕƔѵ

2011 ѵѵƔķƓƖƖ ƐƖƔķѶƑƒ Ŋ�ƐѵƐķƕƐƏ

2012 ѵƕѵķѶƒƔ ƐƖƖķƕƔѵ Ŋ�ƑƒƖķƖƒѵ

ƑƏƐƒ ѵƔѶķѶƒƔ ƑƏƒķƏƕƐ Ŋ�ƐѵƐķѶѵѵ

ƑƏƐƓ ѵѵƖķƐƒƕ ƑƐƏķƏƔƐ Ŋ�ƐƒƖķƏƔѵ

2015 ѵѵƏķƖƖƖ ƑƐƖķƓƕƑ Ŋ��ƖƏķƐƕƑ

2016 ѵƓƕķƔƑƐ ƑƑƒķƏƕѶ Ŋ�ƐѵƐķƖƑѵ

2017 ѵƔѵķƕƏƓ ƑƑƕķѵƑƓ Ŋ��ƔƑķƓѵѵ

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Page 7: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA 7

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Page 8: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIAѶ

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Page 9: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA Ɩ

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Page 10: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA10

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Page 11: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA 11

�-v;7�mo|�omѴ��om�|_;�t�-Ѵb|��o=�|_;�7-|-�0�|�-Ѵvo�|_;bu�1omvbv|;m1���b|_�|_;�ru;Ѵblbm-u��u;v�Ѵ|v�o=�|_;�ƑƏƐѶ�1;mv�v�-m7�;muoѴѴl;m|�|u;m7v�bm�u;1;m|��;-uvķ�|_;���((��bѴѴ�0;�|_;�robm|�o=�7;r-u|�u;�=ou�|_;�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�ruof;1ঞomvĺ��b�;m�|_-|�|_;�u;]bv|u-ঞom�vo�u1;�bv�oL1b-Ѵ�0bu|_�1;uঞC1-|;v�ru;r-u;7�0��_ovrb|-Ѵvķ�1b�bѴ�u;]bv|ub;vķ�-m7�;�;m�=ou;mvb1�l;7b1bm;ķ�|_bv�7-|-�vo�u1;�bv�1omvb7;u;7�|o�0;�u;Ѵ-ঞ�;Ѵ��u;Ѵb-0Ѵ;�=ou��v;�-v�-m�bmbঞ-Ѵ�u;=;u;m1;�bm�|_;�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom�o=� |_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�ruof;1ঞomvĺ� �|� bv� blrou|-m|� |o�mo|;� |_-|� |_;�;vঞl-ঞom�]-rv� u;v�Ѵঞm]� =uol�|_;� =-1|� |_-|�lb]u-|ou��Yo�v�-u;�mo|�bm1Ѵ�7;7��bѴѴ�mo|�0;��;u��Ѵ-u];�]b�;m�|_;�Ѵo��m;|�lb]u-ঞom�bm�|_;�u;]bomķ�-v�bm7b1-|;7�-0o�;ĺ��ou;o�;uķ�|_;�oL1b-Ѵ�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�ruof;1ঞomv�-�-bѴ-0Ѵ;�Ő0-v;7�om�|_;�ƑƏƏƔ�1;mv�vő�v_o��-�7b@;u;m|ķ�o11-vbom-ѴѴ��orrovbm]ķ�|u;m7�|o�|_-|�u;�;-Ѵ;7�0��|_;�ru;Ѵblbm-u��u;v�Ѵ|v�o=�|_;�ƑƏƐѶ�1;mv�v�-m7�|_;�1_-m];�bm�;muoѴѴl;m|�bm�u;1;m|��;-uvĺ

Ƒĺ��uof;1ঞomv�o=�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7

�;|_o7oѴo]�$_bv�v;1ঞom�7;v1ub0;v�|_;�l;|_o7oѴo]��7;�;Ѵor;7�|o�;vঞl-|;�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�|_-|��bѴѴ�7;l-m7�r�0Ѵb1�;7�1-ঞom�o�;u�|_;�m;�|�Ɛƕ��;-uv�ŐƑƏƐƖŊƑƏƒƔő�bm�|_;�l�mb1br-Ѵb|��o=��-Ѵbĺ�$_;�ruo1;7�u;��-v�1omv|u�1|;7�om�|_;�0-vbv�o=�|_;�-�-bѴ-0Ѵ;�7-|-�vo�u1;vĸ�|_;�u;Ѵ;�-m1;�-m7�=;-vb0bѴb|��o=�1om7�1ঞm]�|_;�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞomv�-m7�;vঞl-ঞm]�|_;�u;v�Ѵ|vĸ�-m7�|_;�-0bѴb|��|o��r7-|;�|_;�ruof;1ঞom�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞomv�om�|_;�0-vbv�o=�m;��-�-bѴ-0Ѵ;�7-|-ĺ�

�-1_�o=�|_;�l;|_o7oѴo]b1-Ѵ�v|;rv�bv�7;v1ub0;7�0;Ѵo�ĺ

1. �or�Ѵ-ঞom�ruof;1ঞomv

$_;�;vঞl-ঞom�o=�|_;�v1_ooѴ�-];�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�bv�7b�b7;7�bm|o�|�o�r-u|vĹ�Őbő�-�u;1omv|u�1ঞom�o=�-mm�-Ѵ�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�|o|-Ѵv�0��vr;1bC1�-];�0-v;7�om��b|-Ѵ�v|-ঞvঞ1v�0;|�;;m�ƐƖƖѶ�-m7�ƑƏƐѶĸ�-m7�Őbbő�-m�;�|u-roѴ-ঞom�o=�0bu|_�-m7�7;-|_�|u;m7v�|o�ruof;1|�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�0��vr;1bC1�-];�=ou�|_;�r;ubo7�ƑƏƐƖŊƑƏƒƔĺ

$_;�;t�-ঞom�=ou�|_;�Cuv|�r_-v;�o=�|_;�ruof;1ঞom�bvĹ

1. Populationo, t = Live birthst – Deaths0,tt = 1998 … 2018

�|;u-ঞm]�Ɛ�]b�;vĹ� 2. Populatione, t = Populatione-1, t-1 – Deaths0,t

e = 1 … 16; t = 1998 … 2018

�t�-ঞom�Ɛ�v_o�v�|_;�l;|_o7�o=�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞm]�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�Ə10�bm�|_;��;-u�tķ��_b1_�bv�;t�-Ѵ�|o�|_;�m�l0;u�o=�Ѵb�;�0bu|_v�bm�|_;��;-u�t�Ѵ;vv�7;-|_v�bm�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�Ə�bm�|_;��;-u�tĺ��t�-ঞom�Ƒ�bv�|_;�b|;u-ঞom�o=�|_;�Cuv|�;t�-ঞomĺ�$_-|�bv�|o�v-�ķ�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�e�bm�-��;-u�t�bv�;t�-Ѵ�|o�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�e Ŋ�Ɛ�bm�|_;��;-u�t Ŋ�Ɛķ�Ѵ;vv�|_;�7;-|_v�o=�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�e�bm�|_;��;-u�tĺ

$_;�;t�-ঞomv�=ou�|_;�v;1om7�r_-v;ķ�bĺ;ĺķ�ruof;1ঞom�o=�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�0��vr;1bC1�-];�0;|�;;m�ƑƏƐƖ�-m7�ƑƏƒƔĹ

3. Live birthst = Live birthst – Deathst-1 * (1 + nt)

4. Population0,t = Live birthst * (1 – m0,t)t = 2019 … 2035

�|;u-ঞm]�Ɠ�]b�;vĹ� 5. Populatione, t = Populatione-1, t-1 * (1 – me,t)

e = 1 … 16; t = 2019 … 2035

10��];�Ə�u;=;uv�|o�1_bѴ7u;m�0;|�;;m�|_;�-];v�o=�Ə�-m7�ƐƐ�lom|_vĺ

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Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA12

�t�-ঞom�ƒ�v_o�v�|_;�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;�m�l0;u�o=�Ѵb�;�0bu|_v�bm�|_;��;-u�tķ��_b1_�bv�o0|-bm;7�=uol�|_;�m�l0;u�o=�Ѵb�;�0bu|_v�bm�|_;��;-u�t – 1 l�ѴঞrѴb;7�0��|_;�]uo�|_�u-|;�=ou�0bu|_v11 n�bm�|_;��;-u�tĺ��-v;7�om�|_;�-0o�;ķ��t�-ঞom�Ɠ�7;v1ub0;v�|_;�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�Ə�bm�|_;��;-u�tķ��_b1_�bv�;t�-Ѵ�|o�|_;�m�l0;u�o=�Ѵb�;�0bu|_v�bm�|_;��;-u�t�l�ѴঞrѴb;7�0��|_;�lou|-Ѵb|��u-|;�m o=�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�Ə�bm�|_;��;-u�t. �|;u-ঞm]��t�-ঞom�Ɠ�]b�;v�;t�-ঞom�Ɣķ��_b1_�7;v1ub0;v�|_;�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�e bm�|_;��;-u�t -m7�bv�;t�-Ѵ�|o�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�e – 1 bm�|_;��;-u�t – 1 l�ѴঞrѴb;7�0��|_;�lou|-Ѵb|��u-|;�m�=ou�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�-];7�e�bm�|_;��;-u�tĺ

2. �vঞl-|;�o=�r�0Ѵb1�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7�0��;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;ѴĹ��;|;ubv�r-ub0�v�v1;m-ubo

$_;�;vঞl-|;v�0��;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�-u;�0-v;7�om�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;�|_;ou;ঞ1-Ѵ�-];�=ou�-�vr;1bC1�;7�1-ঞom-Ѵ�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�-m7�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�|_-|�bv�o�;u�ou��m7;u�-];�=ou�|_-|�;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵĺ�$_;�|_;ou;ঞ1-Ѵ�-];v�;v|-0Ѵbv_;7�0��|_;��bmbv|u��o=��-ঞom-Ѵ��7�1-ঞom�Ő���ő�-u;��v;7�-v�-�u;=;u;m1;ĺ�$_;�u-ঞo�0;|�;;m�Ѵ;�;Ѵv�-m7�|_;ou;ঞ1-Ѵ�-];v�bv�v_o�m�bm�|_;�=oѴѴo�bm]�|-0Ѵ;ĺ

$�����Ƒ !-m];�o=��;]-Ѵ��];v�-m7ņou��L1b-Ѵ��];v12

�7�1-ঞom��;�;Ѵv Grades $_;ou;ঞ1-Ѵ��];v�u;v1_ooѴ �u;Ŋm�uv;u�ķ���uv;u��-m7�$u-mvbঞom ƒ�|o�Ɣ��;-uvƐƒ

�ubl-u� buv|�|o�C[_ ѵ�|o�ƐƏ��;-uv

�o�;u�v;1om7-u� "b�|_�|o�mbm|_ ƐƐ�|o�ƐƓ��;-uv

&rr;u�v;1om7-u� �Ѵ;�;m|_�-m7�|�;Ѵ[_ ƐƔ�-m7�Ɛѵ��;-uv

�t�-ঞomv�ѵ�-m7�ƕ�0;Ѵo��7;v1ub0;�|_;�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�7;l-m7�0��;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�=ou�;-1_��;-u�o=�|_;�ruof;1ঞomĹ

6. Public education demandn, t = School – age populationn, t*Gross public coveragen, t*

n = Child Development Centers (CDIs), Preschool, Primary, Lower Secondary, Upper Secondaryt = 2019 … 2035

�t�-ঞom�ѵ�vr;1bC;v�|_-|�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7�=ou�|_;� Ѵ;�;Ѵ�n� bm�ruof;1ঞom��;-u�t�1ouu;vrom7v�|o�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;�|_;ou;ঞ1-Ѵ�-];�=ou�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�n�bm��;-u�t l�ѴঞrѴb;7�0��|_;�]uovv�1o�;u-];�u-|;�=ou�|_-|�Ѵ;�;Ѵķ��_;u;�|_;�r�0Ѵb1�]uovv�1o�;u-];�rateƐƓ�1ouu;vrom7v�|o�|_;�u-ঞo�0;|�;;m�|_;�m�l0;u�o=�v|�7;m|v�bm�r�0Ѵb1�;7�1-ঞom�;muoѴѴ;7�-|�-m�;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵ��;uv�v�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;�|_;ou;ঞ1-Ѵ�-];�=ou�|_-|�;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵĺ

$_;� Ѵo]b1�0;_bm7�|_;��v;�o=�]uovv�1o�;u-];�-v�-m� bm7b1-|ou� |o�l;-v�u;�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7� bv�0-v;7�om�|_;�=-1|� |_-|�b|� bm1Ѵ�7;v� u;r;ঞঞom� -m7� Ѵ-|;� ou� ;-uѴ�� ;muoѴѴl;m|� bm� |_;� v1_ooѴ� v�v|;lĺ�$_bv� bm7b1-|ouķ� bm� v�m;u]���b|_� ror�Ѵ-ঞom�ruof;1ঞomvķ� bm7b1-|;v�|_;�1-r-1b|��|_-|�|_;�r�0Ѵb1�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;l��bѴѴ�m;;7�|o�_-�;�|o�l;;|�|_;�vo1b-Ѵ�7;l-m7�=ou�r�0Ѵb1�;7�1-ঞom�bm�|_;�1olbm]��;-uvķ�u;]-u7Ѵ;vv�o=�|_;�-];�-|�-�vr;1bC1�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�o=�;7�1-ঞomĺ�

11�$_;�0bu|_�-m7�7;-|_�u-|;v�-u;�;�|u-roѴ-|;7�om�|_;�0-vbv�o=�_bv|oub1-Ѵ�7-|-ķ��vbm]�|_;�|u;m7�|_-|�0;v|�u;Y;1|v�|_;�7-|-ĺ12 Source:��-ঞom-Ѵ�"�v|;l�o=��7�1-ঞom��m7b1-|ouv�=ou��u;v1_ooѴķ��Ѵ;l;m|-u��-m7��o�;u�";1om7-u��"1_ooѴ�-m7�&rr;u�";1om7-u��"1_ooѴ�bm��oѴol0b-ĺ����ĺ

Ɛƒ�$_;��-ঞom-Ѵ�"�v|;l�o=��7�1-ঞom��m7b1-|ouv�7o;v�mo|�bm1Ѵ�7;�-�|_;ou;ঞ1-Ѵ�-];�u-m];�=ou�ru;v1_ooѴķ�vo�|_;�-];�u-m];v�=ou�|_bv�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�-u;�7;|;ulbm;7�0��;�|u-roѴ-ঞm]�=uol�|_;�1�uu;m|�u;]�Ѵ-ঞomvĺ�

ƐƓ Gross public coverage bv�mo|�-m�oL1b-Ѵ�bm7b1-|ou�mou�bv�b|�;�|;mvb�;Ѵ���v;7�-m7�b|v�m-l;�1omvঞ|�|;v�-m�bm|�bঞ�;��-��o=�Ѵ-0;Ѵbm]�|_bv�1olrom;m|�o=�|_;�;t�-ঞom�=ou�|_;�ruof;1ঞom�o=�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7

7. Gross public coveragen, t* = ! "Enrollmentn, t* School-age populationn, t*

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Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA Ɛƒ

It should be noted that gross public coverage in the year t*�1ouu;vrom7v�|o�|_;�u-ঞo�0;|�;;m�|_;�lov|�u;1;m|�-mm�-Ѵ�7-|-�available for public enrollment and the ror�Ѳ-ࢼom�o=�v1_ooѲ�-]; in that year.ƐƔ��|�bv�blrovvb0Ѵ;�|o��m7;uv|-m7�ou�ru;7b1|�|_;�0;_-�bou�o=�|_bv�bm7b1-|ou�0-v;7�om�b|v�_bv|oub1-Ѵ�7-|-ĺ�$_bv�bv�0;1-�v;�0bu|_�7-|-�_-�;�0;;m�r�0Ѵb1�omѴ��vbm1;�ƐƖƖѶķ��_b1_�l;-mv�|_-|�-�1olrѴ;|;�u;1omv|u�1ঞom�o=�|_;�v1_ooѴ�-];�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�Ő0;|�;;m�Ɣ�-m7�Ɛѵ��;-uvő�bv�mo|�-�-bѴ-0Ѵ;��mঞѴ�ƑƏƐƓĺ��ou;o�;uķ�-m�-m-Ѵ�vbv��vbm]�|_;�;�bvঞm]�7-|-�v_o�v�|_-|�|_;�u;v�Ѵ|v�-u;��;u��v;mvbঞ�;�|o�|_;�m�l0;u�o=��;-uv��v;7�=ou�|_;�ruof;1ঞom�-m7�|;m7�|o�0;�1o�m|;ubm|�bঞ�;ĺ

ƒĺ� �vঞl-|;�o=�ro|;mঞ-Ѵ�r�0Ѵb1�7;l-m7�0��;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;ѴĹ�$o|-Ѵ�1o�;u-];�v1;m-ubo

$_bv�v1;m-ubo�v;;hv�|o�;vঞl-|;�|_;�m�l0;u�o=�-�-bѴ-0Ѵ;�rѴ-1;v�m;;7;7�b=�r�0Ѵb1�;7�1-ঞom�bv�|o�-0vou0�|_;�;mঞu;�v1_ooѴ�-];�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�|_-|� bv�o�|vb7;�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;lĺ�$_bv�l;-mv�|_-|� |_bv�v1;m-ubo� bv�;t�b�-Ѵ;m|� |o� |_;�;vঞl-|;v�o=�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7�bm�|_;�ceteris paribus v1;m-ubo�rѴ�v�-m�;vঞl-|;�o=�|_;��mv1_ooѴ;7�ror�Ѵ-ঞomĺ��t�-ঞomv�Ѷ�-m7�Ɩ�0;Ѵo��v_o��|_;�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom�=ou�|_;�total coverage v1;m-ubo:

8. Total coveragen, t = Public education demandn, t +Population outside the systemn, t

9. Population outside the systemn, t = Population of theoretical agen, t * pfsn,2018

n= Preschool, Primary, Lower Secondary, Upper Secondary16

t = 2019 … 2035

�-v;7�om�;t�-ঞom�Ѷķ�|o|-Ѵ�1o�;u-];�bv�;t�-Ѵ�|o�r�0Ѵb1�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7�=ou�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�m�bm��;-u�|�rѴ�v�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o�|vb7;�|_;�v�v|;l�o=�|_;�|_;ou;ঞ1-Ѵ�-];�|o�0;�;muoѴѴ;7�bm�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�m�Őv;;�|-0Ѵ;�Ƒőķ��_b1_�bm�|�um�bv�;t�-Ѵ�|o�|_;�Ő|o|-Ѵő�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;�|_;ou;ঞ1-Ѵ�-];�|o�0;�;muoѴѴ;7�bm�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�m�bm��;-u�|�l�ѴঞrѴb;7�0��|_;�v_-u;�o=�|_;�v1_ooѴ�-];�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�=ou�Ѵ;�;Ѵ�m�o�|vb7;�|_;�v�v|;l�bm�ƑƏƐѶ�Őpfsn,2018őĺ

Ɠĺ� �uof;1ঞomv�o=�7;l-m7�0��1oll�m;

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Page 14: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 15: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 16: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA16

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Mn,t Number of pupils enrolled in education level n.

Me,n,t Enrollment in education level n at the o!cial age e for that education level.

Pe,n,t Population at the theoretical age e for education level n.

e O!cial age, regulatory age range, theoretical age (up to two years more).• age 5 (transition)• ages 6 to 10 (primary)• ages 11 to 14 (lower secondary)• ages 15 and 16 (upper secondary)

Gross coverage Net coverage

Page 17: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA 17

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Page 18: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 19: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 20: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 21: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 22: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 23: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 24: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 25: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

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Page 26: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA26

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Page 27: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA 27

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Basic Primary

1 First 35.02% 30.13% 40.81% 33.43% 36.18% 36.18% 36.18%57 Ƒ�";1om7 33.29% 28.54% 35.88% 34.54% 33.04% 33.04% 33.04%ƔѶ ƒ�$_bu7 33.61% 28.91% 34.72% 32.47% 35.17% 35.17% 35.17%ƔƖ Ɠ� o�u|_ 31.63% 27.81% 34.08% 31.53% 32.43% 32.43% 32.43%60 Ɣ� b[_ 29.46% 26.11% 33.22% 31.53% 30.28% 30.28% 30.28%61 Accelerated learning 0.10% 0.10% 0.11% 0.05% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%62

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Page 28: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIAƑѶ

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$o�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-|;�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7��m7;u�|_;�total coverage�v1;m-uboķ��_b1_�bm1Ѵ�7;v�|_;�v_-u;�o=�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o�|vb7;�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;l�|_-|�v_o�Ѵ7�0;�bm�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;l�bm�|_;�;vঞl-|;ķ�|_;�|o|-Ѵ�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�;muoѴѴ;7�bm�0o|_�|_;�r�0Ѵb1�v;1|ou�-m7�rub�-|;�v;1|ou�bv�v�0|u-1|;7�=uol�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�ruof;1ঞomv�0-v;7�om��b|-Ѵ�v|-ঞvঞ1vĺ

$_bv�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom��v;v�ľƒĺ�ĺ�bv|ub0�ঞom�0���];Ŀ�-m7�ľƒ�ĺ��or�Ѵ-ঞom���|vb7;�|_;��7�1-ঞom�"�v|;lĺĿ�$_;�Cuv|�0u;-hv�7o�m�|_;�7bv|ub0�ঞom�0��-];�bm�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;lķ�|o�b7;mঞ=��|_;�m�l0;u�o=�;muoѴѴ;7�v|�7;m|v�o=�;-1_�-];�v_o�m�bm�"���$ĺ�$_;v;�7-|-�-u;��v;7�bm�|_;�v;1om7�v;1ঞom�bm�|_;�|-0Ѵ;�v_o�bm]�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�bm�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;lķ�Ѵo1-|;7�bm�1;ѴѴv��ѵƑ�|o��ѶƓķ��_b1_�bm�|�um��v;v�|_;��rr;u�rouঞomķ��_;u;�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o�|vb7;�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;l�ŐYo�v�-m7�u-|;vő�bv�;vঞl-|;7ķ�-v�v_o�m�bm� b]�u;�ƑƐĺ

A B C � F G H I J K L � � O

1�uof;1ঞom��-Ѵ1�Ѵ-|ouŊ"-mঞ-]o�7;��-Ѵb�u;v1_ooѴķ��ubl-u�ķ��o�;u�";1om7-u�ķ�-m7�&rr;u�";1om7-u��;l-m7

2

ƒ

Ɠ Ɛ-ĺ��7�1-ঞom�;l-m7�Base��uof;1ঞomvĹ��;|;ubv��-ub0�v5

���;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵ6

Ѷ �7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵ ƑƏƐѶ ƑƏƐƖ 2020 2021 2022 ƑƏƑƒ ƑƏƑƓ 2025 2026 2027

Ɩ Preschool1 15,290 15,428 15,176 14,549 14,742 13,759 13,876 13,726 13,599 13,48910 Primary2 95,280 93,296 91,948 91,365 89,237 87,620 85,850 84,064 82,327 81,212

11 �o�;u�";1om7-u� 84,579 83,941 83,101 81,265 80,531 79,639 78,013 77,475 76,078 74,169

12 &rr;u�";1om7-u� 28,694 30,164 30,327 29,790 29,581 29,597 29,217 28,053 27,904 28,267

Ɛƒ TOTALƒ ƑƑƒķѶƓƒ ƑƑƑķѶƑƖ ƑƑƏķƔƔƑ ƑƐѵķƖѵƖ ƑƐƓķƏƖƐ ƑƐƏķѵƐƔ ƑƏѵķƖƔѵ ƑƏƒķƒƐƖ ƐƖƖķƖƏƖ ƐƖƕķƐƒѶ1�o;v�mo|�bm1Ѵ�7;��_bѴ7�;�;Ѵorl;m|��;m|;uv2��m1Ѵ�7;v��11;Ѵ;u-|;7��;-umbm]ƒ�o;v�mo|�bm1Ѵ�7;�"r;1b-Ѵ��m|;]u-|;7��1-7;lb1�+;-uv�bm��7�Ѵ|� oul-Ѵ��7�1-ঞom�Ő����ő

Page 29: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIA ƑƖ

��&!��ƑƐ ���mm;��ƒ�ĺ��-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;��or�Ѵ-ঞom���|vb7;�|_;��7�1-ঞom�"�v|;l

$_;�u;v�Ѵ|v�v_o�m�bm�ľ�7�1-ঞom�;l-m7��-v;��uof;1ঞomvĿ�om�|_; total coverage�v1;m-uboķ�bm� b]�u;�ƑƑķ�-u;�0-v;7�om�|_;�v�l�o=�|_;�7;l-m7�ruof;1ঞom�0��]u-7;ķ��_b1_�bv�v_o�m�bm�ľ;l-m7��uof;1ঞomv�Ő0��]u-7;őķĿ�rѴ�v�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o�|vb7;�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;l�7;v1ub0;7�-0o�;ĺ�

A B C � F G H I J K L � �

1

�mm;��ƒ�ĺ��-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞom�o=�|_;��or�Ѵ-ঞom���|vb7;�|_;��7�1-ঞom�"�v|;l2

ƒ

Ɠ

5 �vঞl-|;�o=�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o�|vb7;�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;lĹ� Ѵo�v6 �7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵ ƑƏƐƓ 2015 2016 2017 ƑƏƐѶ ƑƏƐƖ 2020 2021 2022 ƑƏƑƒ ƑƏƑƓ

7 Preschool 55,316 64,495 63,658 66,570 67,705 66,611 65,619 63,509 62,526 61,006 60,776Ѷ Primary 6,576 14,743 16,875 20,532 18,505 18,117 17,850 17,736 17,322 17,009 16,663

Ɩ �o�;u�";1om7-u� –5,704 –27 4,657 9,227 8,505 8,432 8,348 8,189 8,107 8,001 7,837

10 &rr;u�";1om7-u� 6,088 7,051 6,566 4,491 4,286 4,286 4,510 4,539 4,459 4,425 4,428

11 TOTAL ѵƑķƑƕѵ ѶѵķƑѵƑ ƖƐķƕƔѵ ƐƏƏķѶƑƏ ƖƖķƏƏƑ ƖƕķƓƓѵ ƖѵķƒƑƕ ƖƒķƖƕƒ ƖƑķƓƐƓ ƖƏķƓƓƐ ѶƖķƕƏƓ12

Ɛƒ �vঞl-|;�o=�|_;�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�o�|vb7;�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�v�v|;lĹ�!-|;v

ƐƓ �7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵ ƑƏƐƓ 2015 2016 2017 ƑƏƐѶ ƑƏƐƖ 2020 2021 2022 ƑƏƑƒ ƑƏƑƓ

15 Preschool 63.8% 75.1% 74.8% 79.8% 82.8% 82.8% 82.8% 82.8% 82.8% 82.8% 82.8%16 Primary 4.3% 9.8% 11.4% 14.0% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7%

17 �o�;u�";1om7-u� –4.7 0.0% 3.9% 7.5% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%

ƐѶ &rr;u�";1om7-u� 8.9% 10.4% 10.4% 7.8% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%ƐƖ TOTAL ƐƓĺƔѷ ƑƏĺƓѷ ƑƑĺƏѷ ƑƓĺѵѷ ƑƓĺƒѷ ƑƓĺƏѷ ƑƓĺƏѷ ƑƒĺѶѷ ƑƒĺѶѷ Ƒƒĺѵѷ ƑƒĺѶѷ

Page 30: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez

Technical Note | ESTIMATING EDUCATION DEMAND IN CALI, COLOMBIAƒƏ

��&!��ƑƑ ��7�1-ঞom�;l-m7��-v;��uof;1ঞomvĹ�$o|-Ѵ��o�;u-];

ou�;-uѴ��;7�1-ঞomķ��_b1_�v_o�v�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7�u;1;b�;7�bm�|_;���vķ�|_;�u;=;u;m1;�bv�|_;�lov|�u;1;m|�v1_ooѴ��;-uķ��_b1_�bm�|_bv�1-v;�bv�ƑƏƐѶķ�0�|��_b1_�1-m�0;��r7-|;7��_;m�lou;�7-|-�-u;�-�-bѴ-0Ѵ;�Ő�;ѴѴo��1;ѴѴvőĺ��m�|_bv�1-v;ķ�|_;�u;v�Ѵ|v�-u;�v_o�m�bm�ľ;l-m7��uof;1ঞomv���vķĿ�bm�|_;�Cuv|�r-u|�ŐƐ�őĺ�

bm-ѴѴ�ķ�|o�7bv-]]u;]-|;�|_;�;7�1-ঞom�7;l-m7�ruof;1ঞomv�0��1oll�m;ķ�;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵķ�-m7��u0-mŊu�u-Ѵ�7bv|ub0�ঞomķ�-77bঞom-Ѵ�-vv�lrঞomv�l�v|�0;�bm1Ѵ�7;7�-v�-�u;=;u;m1;�|o�u�m�|_bv�ruof;1ঞom��b|_�-�]u;-|;u�7;]u;;�o=�7bv-]]u;]-ঞomĺ

�m�|_;�1-v;�o=�7bv-]]u;]-ঞom�0��1oll�m;ķ�|_;�u;=;u;m1;��v;7�bv�|_;�7bv|ub0�ঞom�o=�|_;�ruof;1|;7�|o|-Ѵ�ror�Ѵ-ঞom�0-v;7�om�|_;�ƑƏƏƔ�1;mv�vĺ��|�v_o�Ѵ7�0;�mo|;7�|_-|�-Ѵ|_o�]_�|_;v;�7-|-�vo�u1;v��;u;�o�;uŊu;rouঞm]�ror�Ѵ-ঞomķ�|_;u;�bv�mo�bm7b1-ঞom�|_-|� |_bv�0b-v� bv� u;Ѵ-|;7�|o� |_;�7bv|ub0�ঞom�0��1oll�m;ķ�-m7� b|� bv� |_�v�1omvb7;u;7�-m�-11;r|-0Ѵ;� u;=;u;m1;�=ou�|_bv�r-uঞ1�Ѵ-u�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞomĺ� ou�|_;�ruof;1ঞomv�0��;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵķ�|_;�7bv|ub0�ঞom�o=�r�0Ѵb1�;muoѴѴl;m|v�ruo�b7;7�0��"���$�bv��v;7ĺ�

$_;v;�7-|-�=ou�1-Ѵ1�Ѵ-ঞm]�|_;�-vv�lrঞomv�-u;�=o�m7�bm�ľƔ�ĺ�bv|ub0�ঞom�0���oll�m;�-m7��7�1-ঞom��;�;ѴķĿ��_b1_�-u;��v;7�bm�|_;�v;1ঞomv�v_o�bm]�|_;�u;v�Ѵ|v�o=�|_;�ruof;1ঞomv�o=�;Ѵ;l;m|-u��v1_ooѴ�-m7����7;l-m7�=oѴѴo�bm]�|_;�];m;u-Ѵ�ruof;1ঞomvĺ�$_;�v;1ঞom�v_o�bm]�|_;�;Ѵ;l;m|-u��v1_ooѴ�7;l-m7�ruof;1ঞomķ�ľ�7�1-ঞom�;l-m7��-v;��uof;1ঞomvķĿ� bv�=o�m7�bm�1;ѴѴv��ƒƒ�|o��ƕƑ�=ou�|_;�7bv-]]u;]-ঞom�0��1oll�m;ķ�-m7�bm�1;ѴѴv��ƕƖ�|o��ƑƒƐ�=ou�|_;�7bv-]]u;]-ঞom�0��1oll�m;�-m7�;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵĺ� ou�|_;����ruof;1ঞomvķ�|_;�7bv-]]u;]-ঞomv�-u;�=o�m7�bm�|_;�v;1ঞom�ľ;l-m7��uof;1ঞomv���vķĿ�bm�1;ѴѴv�ƐƓ�|o�ƔƑķ�omѴ��0��1oll�m;ĺ

A B C � F G H I J K L �

1�!����$��������&��$�!Ŋ�"��$������������u;v1_ooѴķ��ubl-u�ķ��o�;u�";1om7-u�ķ�-m7�&rr;u�";1om7-u��;l-m7

2

ƒ

Ɠ Ɛ0ĺ��7�1-ঞom�;l-m7�Base��uof;1ঞomvĹ�$o|-Ѵ��o�;u-];5

���;7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;ѴĹ�$o|-Ѵ6

Ѷ �7�1-ঞom�Ѵ;�;Ѵ ƑƏƐѶ ƑƏƐƖ 2020 2021 2022 ƑƏƑƒ ƑƏƑƓ 2025

Ɩ Preschool1 82,995 82,039 80,795 78,059 77,268 74,764 74,652 73,92910 Primary2 111,902 109,569 107,982 104,797 102,898 100,817 98,716 84,064

11 �o�;u�";1om7-u� 93,084 92,373 91,450 89,453 88,638 87,640 85,850 85,281

12 &rr;u�";1om7-u� 32,980 34,450 34,837 34,329 34,039 34,023 33,645 32,426

Ɛƒ TOTALƒ ƒƑƏķƖѵƑ ƒƐѶķƓƒƑ ƒƐƔķƏѵƒ ƒƏƖķƐƒƕ ƒƏƓķƕƓƑ ƑƖƖķƒƑѵ ƑƖƓķƖѵƓ ƑƖƏķƒƔƑ1�o;v�mo|�bm1Ѵ�7;��_bѴ7�;�;Ѵorl;m|��;m|;uv2��m1Ѵ�7;v��11;Ѵ;u-|;7��;-umbm]ƒ�o;v�mo|�bm1Ѵ�7;�"r;1b-Ѵ��m|;]u-|;7��1-7;lb1�+;-uv�bm��7�Ѵ|� oul-Ѵ��7�1-ঞom�Ő����ő

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Page 32: TECHNICAL NOTE Estim tin Educ tion D m nd in C li, Colombi · Estim!tin" Educ!tion D#m!nd in C!li, Colombi! Pedro Cerdan-Infantes Francisco Zavala Garcia Juan Camilo Suárez Gómez