Technical for STOCKS &Derivative 01-03-2011

8/7/2019 Technical for STOCKS &Derivative 01-03-2011

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DOW THEORYDOW THEORY

1. The average discount everything.2. There are 3 trends in the market, namely, Primary trends,

Intermediate trends and Minor trends.

2.1 Primary trend ( >= 1Year).

- Primary up trend (Bull Market).

- Primary down trend (Bear Market).

2.2 Intermediate trend (3 Weeks - Years).

- Primary intermediate trend.

- Secondary intermediate trend.

- Intermediate decline or correction.

- Intermediate rally or recovery.

2.3 Minor trend (=< 3 Weeks).


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DOW THEORYDOW THEORY

3. Primary up trend usually have 3 up move- Accumulate - Collection - Boom phase

4. Primary down trend usually have 3 down

move.

- Distribution - Panic - Consolidation

5. Price / Volume relationships provide

background.

6. Only closing price are used.

7. A trend remains effective until a reversal.

8. Price action determines the trend.


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1

2 -3 5

10

4 5 6

7 (Cut Loss)


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1. ;

2. ;

3. 4.

5. Risk Tolerance NAV

Portfolio6. Asset Allocation

7.


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Technical Analysis

2 1. ( )2. ( )


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??


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Process of Stock InvestmentProcess of Stock Investment

Decision MakingBuy Stocks

Sell StocksPortfolio Management Strategy

Decision Instrument

Forecast Long Term Trend-ARC Cycle- Elliott Wave Theory

- Fibonacci Objective- Fibonacci Retracement

- GANNs Theory- Dow Theory- Psychology- Fundamental

- International Environment Factor- Globalization- Free Trade Area(AFTA, EU, NAFTA etc.)

- Forex & Commodities- Bonds & Derivatives

- National Environment Factor- Systematic Risk

- Market Risk- Political Risk- Currency exchange Risk- Interest rate Risk- Inflation Risk

-Unsystematic Risk- Industry Risk- Company Risk

IIPoint & Figure ChartsLINE ChartsBAR ChartsCandle Stick ChartsRENKO ChartsKAGI Charts3-LINES BREAK Charts

IIIMoving AverageFan LineSpeed Line

Fibonacci LineFibonacci Arc.Bollinger BandsParaboric sarGloden & Dead cross

IIAD-Line

Foreign NETbuy / sellChart

- OBV

- ROC

- Volume

IIIOscillatorsInstrument

- MACD-14 RSI- 10 -Days Momentum- Stochastic5 %K3%D

- CCI- CHIKINS- Directorial Indicator

- etc.

IPrice Pattern Break Out

- Down Trend Channel

- Up Trend Channel- Down Trend Line- Up Trend Line- Bullish Divergence- Bearish Divergence

ICycle Low

Cycle Peak

Fibonacci Time Zone

Advisor Instruments


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Decision Making

Decision Instrument

IIPoint & Figure Charts

LINE Charts

BAR Charts

Candle Stick ChartsRENKO Charts

KAGI Charts

3-LINES BREAK Charts

IIIMoving Average

Fan Line

Speed Line

Fibonacci Line

Fibonacci Arc.

Bollinger Bands

Paraboric sar

Gloden & Dead cross



- Up Trend Channel

- Down Trend Line- Up Trend Line

- Bullish Divergence

- Bearish Divergence


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Advisor Instruments

IIAD-Line

Foreign NET buy

/ sell Chart

- OBV

- ROC

- Volume

IIOscillators Instrument

- MACD- 14 RSI

- 10 -Days Momentum

- 8REI (Range

Expansion Index)

- Stochastic 5%K3%D

- William %R

- CCI

- CHIKINS

- Directorial Indicator

- etc.

ICycleLow

CyclePeak

Fibonaccitime

zone


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1. Marketaction discounts everything ;

( ) ( - )Buy Signal Buy Signal / Sell signal Sell signal2. Prices movein trends ; 2.1 ( Up trend ) ;

; > ; Buy Signal - Sell Signal - Open Long Open Short Stop Loss 2.2 ( Down trend ) ;

; > ;

Sell Signal Buy Signal -


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2.3 ( Side ways ) ; ( = )2.3.1Sideways (MajorTrend ) - Continues Pattern

Wait & See Square Position 1-2

2.3.2 Sideways (Major Trend )

ReversalPattern - Volume CyclePeak -

Bearish Divergence False Buy Signal ( Bull Trap ) Sell SignalReversal Pattern

2.3.3 Sideways (Major Trend ) ReversalPattern Volume CyclePeak

-

Bullish Divergence

False Sell Signal ( Bear Trap ) Buy Signal


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33 DerivativeDerivative11..11 (( Buy SignalBuy Signal -- SETSET 5050 FUTURESFUTURES -- ))11..22 (( Buy SignalBuy Signal Sell SignalSell Signal ))

44 -- (( DailyDailyTrend )Trend )

22..11 SidewaysSideways DerivativeDerivative 22..22

Stocks &Stocks & SETSET 5050FUTURESFUTURES 22..33 Stocks & SETStocks & SET 5050


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77 SETSET 5050 33 (( ))PeakPeak

( Bullish Sentiment )( Bullish Sentiment ) (( ))OpenLong FuturesOpenLong Futures ContactsContacts

FuturesFutures SETSET 5050 Short CloseShort CloseFuturesFutures SETSET 5050

( Switching )( Switching ) OpenLongOpenLongFuturesFutures

SETSET 5050 Sell SignalSell Signal Open ShortFuturesOpen ShortFutures

88. SET. SET 5050 33 (( ))BottomBottom ( Bearish Sentiment( Bearish Sentiment ))


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SET 50 ( Stocks ) ?


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SET 50 Sma.50 Open Long

Sma.50

Sma.150


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SET 50 Sma.50 Open Short

Sma.50

Sma.150


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Short Term ( 1-5 days ) Trading FUTURES

BY TECHNICAL ANLYSIS


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TRADING FUTURES BY TECHNICAL ANLYSIS

1. SET 50 30 Candle sticks

BarChart

Modified Stochastic

Period Stochastic = 20.0 , %D = 5.0 % K = 5.0 2. ( SMA. ) SET 50 3

2.1 Simple Moving Average 21 - 2.2 SimpleMoving Average 54 -

2.3 Simple Moving Average 130

( OpenLongorOpen short ) 3. Modified Stochastic OverBoughtOverSold LongorShort


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SMA.130

SMA.54

SMA.21


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Open Long1. SET 50

Simple Moving Average 130 (

)

2.Open Long SET50 3 ( SMA. 21, 54 ,130 ) Modified Stochastic % K %D ( )

ReversalPattern Double TripleBottom Triangle Falling Wedge3. Short Close SET 50 SMA.21 (

) Modified Stochastic

%K

%D

() OverBought 4.Open Long() SET 50 SMA.130 ( ) Modified Stochastic % K %D ( ) OverSold 5. Simple Moving Average 54


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Open

Long

Open

LongOpen

Long

Short

CloseShort

Close

Short

Close


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Open Short1. SET 50

Simple Moving Average 130 (

)

2.Open Short SET50 3 ( SMA. 21, 54 ,130 )

Modified Stochastic % K %D ( ) ReversalPattern Double Triple TOP Triangle RisingWedge

3. Long Close SET 50 SMA.21 ( ) Modified Stochastic % K %D() OverSold 4.Open Short() SET 50 SMA.130 ( ) Modified Stochastic % K %D


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Triple Top OpenShort

Open

Short Open

Short

Open

Short

Long

CloseLong

Close

LongClose


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Work Shop

Technical - &

; AD 1 AD7 ; AD 1 & AD 2


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AD 1 ; 30- 1-3 ()

(

)


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AD 2 ; Daily Chart & 14 RSI & OBV


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AD 3 ; Close Price & Junior Oscillator


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AD 4 ; Medium To Long Term Analysis


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AD 5 ; Medium to Long Term Analysis


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AD 6 ; Target Momentum &Short Term (2-4% Collection )


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AD 7 ; Target Momentum &Medium Term ( > 4% Collection )


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Decision Making

Decision Instrument

IIPoint & Figure Charts

LINE Charts

BAR Charts

Candle Stick ChartsRENKO Charts

KAGI Charts

3-LINES BREAK Charts

IIIMoving Average

Fan Line

Speed Line

Fibonacci Line

Fibonacci Arc.

Bollinger Bands

Paraboric sar

Gloden & Dead cross



- Up Trend Channel

- Down Trend Line

- Up Trend Line

- Bullish Divergence

- Bearish Divergence


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Line Chart Bar Chart Candle Stick Chart


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Candle Stick Chart


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Simple Moving Avg. 25 Day

Exponential Moving Avg. 25 Day

Weighted Moving Avg. 25 Day


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Exponential Moving Avg. 5 ,10 &25 Day


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THANKYOU

Technical for STOCKS &Derivative 01-03-2011

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Transcript of Technical for STOCKS &Derivative 01-03-2011