Technical Analysis · started day’s trading at 1,243.85 and touched the 1,249.15 level. At the...
Transcript of Technical Analysis · started day’s trading at 1,243.85 and touched the 1,249.15 level. At the...
08/06/2016
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD
“Fluctuations in the price of crude oil continue to present a risk, particularly for the price projection, but on the whole appear balanced, as do the risks to economic growth.” - Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann (based on CNBC)
EUR/USD appreciates steadily on Tuesday
Level Rationale
■ R3 1.1616 May high
■ R2 1.1554 Weekly R2
■ R1 1.1450/65 Bollinger band; weekly and monthly R1s
■ S1 1.1308/1.1268 20 and 55-day SMAs; weekly and monthly PPs
■ S2 1.1196/84 100-day SMA; weekly S1
■ S3 1.1097/91 200-day SMA; Bollinger band
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions -12% -10% 0% -5%
Orders (±50 pips) -4% -12% 12% -5%
Orders (±100 pips) -2% -2% 0% -5%
Indicator Day Week Month
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Buy
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Buy Neutral
ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Buy
CCI (14) Sell Neutral Neutral
AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Buy Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Sell
Aggregate ↘ ↗ →
Pair’s Outlook The European currency gained strength against the US Dollar on
Tuesday, as it appreciated from 1.1355 to 1.1374. In addition, the
movement north of the pair happened steadily without much volatility
and favouring the more conservative bulls. At the moment the currency
exchange rate is located between the monthly PP at 1.1282 and
monthly R1 at 1.1466. Moreover, the monthly PP and R1 are supported
by the weekly PP and R1 respectively at 1.1279 and 1.1463. If the pair
continues its movement upward it will also face the upper Bollinger
band at 1.1452.
Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders became even more bearish on the pair, as already 56% of
open positions are short. Pending orders in the 50 and 100-pip range
are respectively 52% and 51% bearish.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Wednesday, June 08, 2016 07:30 GMT
GBP/USD muted during early trade
Level Rationale
■ R3 1.4805 Down-trend
■ R2 1.4770 May high
■ R1 1.4703/33 Weekly and monthly R2s; Bollinger band; 200-day SMA
■ S1 1.4545/28 Weekly and monthly PPs; 20-day SMA
■ S2 1.4421/14 Up-trend; 55-day SMA
■ S3 1.4363/33 Weekly S1; 100-day SMA; Bollinger band; May low
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions 16% 8% -8% 0%
Orders (±50 pips) 6% -28% -38% 3%
Orders (±100 pips) -2% -10% -22% 0%
Indicator Day Week Month
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Buy
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Neutral Neutral
ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Sell
CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
AROON (14) Sell Buy Sell
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Neutral Neutral Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Sell
Aggregate → → ↘
Pair’s Outlook With another substantial jump, the Cable was able to retake the 1.45
major level yesterday and even climb over the tough resistance around
1.4535. The same cluster now acts as the nearest support, but a lot
weaker than the ascending channel’s support line, which is located at
1.4421, also remaining bolstered by the 55-day SMA. Even though the
medium-term bias is bullish, the Sterling could still weaken and put the
trend-line to another test. Demand, represented by the immediate
support cluster might also be sufficient to cause the GBP/USD currency
pair to prolong its recovery, allowing it to climb at least 50 pips, until
the 1.46 level is reached.
Traders’ Sentiment Bulls grew stronger over the day, as 58% of traders are now long the
Pound (previously 54%). The share of sell orders slid from 55 to 51%.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Wednesday, June 08, 2016 07:30 GMT
“While I would expect more downside if the polls continue to show the ‘Leave’ campaign gathering momentum, the pound is likely to be very volatile in both directions over the next couple of weeks.” - OANDA (based on Market Watch)
USD/JPY poised for more weakness
Level Rationale
■ R3 109.82 Weekly R1
■ R2 109.23/52 Monthly PP; 20 and 55-day SMAs
■ R1 108.16 Weekly PP
■ S1 107.04/106.65 Bollinger band; monthly S1; 38.20% Fibo
■ S2 105.55 May low
■ S3 104.88 Weekly S1
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions 46% 44% 44% 46%
Orders (±50 pips) 12% -40% 30% -8%
Orders (±100 pips) -2% -46% -8% 10%
Indicator Day Week Month
MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Buy Sell
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Neutral Buy
ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Sell
CCI (14) Buy Neutral Buy
AROON (14) Sell Sell Sell
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Neutral Sell Buy
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Sell
Aggregate → ↘ →
Pair’s Outlook The USD/JPY pair was rather subdued on Tuesday, as it experienced
only a slight downside reaction over the day, without reaching any
significant technical level. However, a stronger-than-expected Japanese
GDP figure earlier today boosted the Yen, causing the pair to drop
below the 107.00 mark. The support cluster around this area,
represented by the Bollinger band, the monthly S1 and the 38.20%
Fibonacci retracement is unlikely to let the exchange rate to keep
falling. A full recovery from its intraday low would not be a surprise,
however, technical indicators turned from bullish to mixed, meaning
that the bearish outcome is more probable.
Traders’ Sentiment Today 73% of all open positions are long (previously 72%), while the sell
orders are outnumbering the buy ones by only two percentage points.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Wednesday, June 08, 2016 07:30 GMT
“A June U.S. rate hike is now out of the question and the focus is whether the Fed provides any hints of a July hike. There are no major U.S. indicators until the Fed's policy meeting next week, and the dollar is likely to remain bearish until then.” - IG Securities (based on Reuters)
Gold surges to 1,249 on Tuesday
Level Rationale
■ R3 1,274.36/1,278.62 Weekly R2; monthly R1
■ R2 1,259.10 Weekly R1
■ R1 1,244.61 55-day SMA
■ S1 1,239.17/1,238.72 Monthly PP; 20-day SMA
■ S2 1,229.42/1,227.01 Weekly PP; 100-day SMA
■ S3 1,214.16 Weekly S1
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Positions -2% 2% 8% 2%
Indicator Day Week Month
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Buy
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Buy Neutral
ADX (14) Neutral Sell Buy
CCI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral
AROON (14) Sell Sell Buy
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Buy Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Buy
Aggregate ↘ → ↗
Pair’s Outlook The bullion broke the resistance put up by 55-day simple moving
average at 1,244.60 and booked gains on Tuesday. The yellow metal
started day’s trading at 1,243.85 and touched the 1,249.15 level. At the
moment, gold is trading at 1,248.34 against the US Dollar. In the
meantime, the metal faces no resistance up to the level of 1,259.11,
where the weekly R1 is located. On the other hand, the bullion might
fall and reach the monthly PP at 1,239.18. In addition, the aggregate
technical indicators support a downward move, as they forecast a fall
for gold today.
Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders have shifted their positions and have become slightly
bearish with 51% of open positions being short.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Wednesday, June 08, 2016 07:30 GMT
“That's [Janet Yellen dropping her ’coming months’ promise] good news for gold, which has recently been under downward pressure due to Yellen’s hawkish stance and the elevated odds of an interest rate hike in June or July.” - Sunshine Profits (based on Investing.com)
Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend Neutral – no specific trend for the pair Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Indicators MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction Forecasts
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the
projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
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