Tech Weekly 010711

El Segundo, USA (HQ) Santa Clara, USA Scottsdale, USA Minnetonka, USA Hong Kong, China

Shanghai, China Shenzhen, China Hsin-Chu, Taiwan Tokyo, Japan Kyoto, Japan

Seoul, Korea Bracknell, United Kingdom Munich, Germany Herblay, France

Market Intelligence

� Google set to dominate booming off-board navigation market. iSuppli forecasts substantial growth in the off-board navigation market. We estimate that the market will have a user base of 263 million by 2014, generating $9.7 billion in annual subscription fees and ad revenues, up from $3.9 billion in 2010. iSuppli expects Google Maps Navigation to continue to dominate the mobile off-board navigation market with its ad-based business model. This segment experienced a 118% growth in 2010, mainly due to preloaded, free Google Maps Navigation on Android smartphones. Google’s success will be supported by its strong Android devices sales, Google’s constant improvement endeavors, as well as its other LBS, LBA and SNS assets. However, Google faces challenges not only from privacy issues and government regulations, but also from competition with handset OEMs and OS vendors such as Nokia and Motorola, who are also working toward offering their own navigation solutions.

� EMS revenues rising, though ODM revenues/profitability remains challenging. iSuppli has increased its revenue forecast for the global outsourced manufacturing industry (EMS and ODM) for 2010. The growth rate for 2010 has increased to 33.6%, compared to 24.52% in our previous forecast, increasing 2010 global EMS and ODM revenue forecast to $347 billion from $324 billion. Through 2014, iSuppli forecasts the total revenue up from prior forecast of $454 billion to $472 billion, with a CAGR of between 12%-13%, mainly attributable to the strong growth of the EMS industry, which has recently benefited from rapid growth in the Asia market as well as its attempt to expand into traditional ODM territory.

� ZigBee wireless standard making inroads with utility meters. Smart devices to come later. iSuppli forecasts that ZigBee enabled product shipments will grow to approximately 495 million units in 2014 from 19 million units in 2010. The key driver for this projected growth is the adoption of ZigBee in the Smart Energy Utility Monitoring application. iSuppli believes that it will be several years before consumer appliances start incorporating ZigBee to realize the dream of the “intelligent home,” and “mission-critical” industrial control applications will be a difficult market for ZigBee to enter.

Financial Services

William Kidd Director 310.524.4015 [email protected]

Sophie Gu Senior Researcher 310.524.4092 [email protected]

Cora Jin Senior Researcher 310.524.4089 [email protected]

Wenlie Ye Senior Researcher 310.524.4064 [email protected]

Noteworthy Developments � Apple is now moving to sell software online

� With Atheros, Qualcomm now well positioned to capture opportunities beyond handsets

� Windows targets a bigger role in tablets and smart devices, consistent with our industry view

January 07, 2011

TECH

WEEKLY

S&P 500 Performance (LTM)

Source: iSuppli Corp. | January 2011

Off-board Navigation Revenue Forecast


Zigbee Semiconductor Market Forecast 2010-2014


TECH WEEKLY | Financial Services

2 01.07.2011

Market Intelligence

� Google Set to Dominate Booming Off-board Navigation Market

iSuppli’s Portable Devices & LBS Research just released an important topical report on off-board navigation. We estimate the market today at 62 million users globally, generating $3.9 billion in annual subscription fees and ad revenues. (However, with more smart cars, smartphones and other devices coming to market, this area should see substantial growth). iSuppli predicts that by 2014, the user base will swell to 263 million users, generating $9.7 billion in revenues. Wireless service providers are major participants as they look to subscription revenues (~58% of $3.9 billion) for such services. Google and its competitors are also looking to monetize this growing market with mobile ad delivery services.

Figure 1: Off-board Navigation Revenue Forecast


The vast majority of off-board navigation usage will come from smartphones and cell phones (as opposed to in-vehicle navigation board systems or PNDs). We divide off-board navigation into three segments: 1) subscription, 2) one-time or pay per use navigation users, and 3) ad-based or sponsored navigation services. Ad-based models assume a value per use that is paid by an advertiser. The ad-based value is estimated at 50% of the ad revenue generated by user.

For the ad-based navigation segment, the implications today are arguably more meaningful on public companies, since the revenues are less fragmented. Growth has also been significant, with the user base up 118% in 2010, due to preloaded, free Google Maps Navigation on Android smartphones, released in October 2009. Google recently announced that more than 10 million users are using Google Maps Navigation monthly. iSuppli expects ad-based navigation to take share from subscription services in coming years and ultimately become the dominant model by 2017. As an aside, iSuppli expects the ad-based users to climb to 117 million by 2014 from 2.8 million in 2009.

We expect Google Maps Navigation to continue to dominate the mobile off-board navigation market with its ad-based business model. In 2010, Google's market share in the worldwide off-board navigation user base is


3 01.07.2011

already over 15%. iSuppli believes that off-board navigation providers, including major US carriers and navigation brands, such as TeleNav and Networks In Motion, with subscription models will be most impacted by the emerging ad-based navigation segment. With an average $9.99 monthly service fee, these players will likely lose share to free applications, like Google’s.

Figure 2: Major Off-board Navigation Software Suppliers

TeleNav TCS / NIM TelMap Navitime Google

• BlackBerry, Motorola, Sanyo, LG, Nokia, HTC, Pantech, SE, Palm, HP, UT Starcomm • Shotgun PND • iPhone, T-Mobile G1/myTouch 3G • Java/BREW • BlackBerry Windows Mobile/Palm

• J2ME, BREW, WM devices • GSM devices • Gokivo Navigator for Smartphone OEMs (BlackBerry, iPhone, Windows Mobile)

• Linux-based MIDs • Android, BlackBerry OS, Apple OS X, LiMo, Symbian S60, Symbian UIQ, Windows Mobile, and Java

• BlackBerry Bold/8820 • Symbian; Win Mobile • Java and others

• Most Android devices

• AT&T • Sprint • T-Mobile USA • Verizon • Alltel • Boost Mobile • US Cellular • Qwest • NII (Brazil/ Mexico) • T-Mobile UK • Telcel • Vivo (Brazil) • Virginia Canada • Rogers Wireless • Bell Mobility

• Verizon Wireless • AT&T • Metro PCS • Telus • US Cellular • Alltel • Virgin Mobile • 3 Sweden •

• AT&T • Sprint • Vodafone UK • Vodafone D2 • Vodafone Espana • SFR • Orange UK • Orange France • O2 UK • Telefonica Movistar • Singtel Optus

• NTT DOCOMO/Softbank • KDDI au • Chunghwa Telecom, Far EasTone Telecommunications, Taiwan Mobile, and VIBO Telecom (Taiwan)

• N/A


There have been free off-board navigation applications before, but not with Google’s feature set. Key features from Google include 1) local search query retrieving data from the cloud-computing Google search engine, 2) voice activated search, 3) traffic overlay on map, 4) corridor search (search along route), 5) satellite view, and 6) street view. Danny Kim, iSuppli’s Automotive Infotainment & Telematics Analyst, expects Google to continue to succeed due to the following success factors, while incurring several challenges before it dominates the mobile navigation markets.

Google Success Factors

1. Android devices sales

Android-powered Smartphone sales have hiked over the past year. The regular users of Google Maps Navigation are still around a quarter of all Android Smartphone users. However, this penetration rate of free navigation among Android device users will increases exponentially as tablets become an alternative mobile navigation device and more Android smartphones with advanced touch-screens will come out to support more of Google Maps Navigation's advanced features.


4 01.07.2011

2. Constant improvements

In mid-December, Google introduced Google Maps 5.0 for Android with two significant new features: 3D interaction and offline reliability, after adding the walking navigation function in Maps 4.5 version, which was released one quarter prior. Google rebuilt the Maps using vector graphics, which gives it the flexibility to re-draw the same map from different perspectives using the same set of data. Vector graphics also enable the ability to continue viewing maps even with poor network connections - each vector tile works across multiple zoom levels and requires less data to view maps across all levels than before.

3. Google's other LBS, LBA and SNS assets

Google has been delivering location based services for years. Its Google Maps application is available on all mobile platforms and is often the first application downloaded when it is not pre-installed on a handset. Not only does Google see mobile as its main business focus, but also an essential part of its mobile ecosystem.

As of August 2010, Google Maps for mobile had gained over 100 million users in the 5 years since its launch. The functionality has already gone beyond providing simple directions from location to destination. To enhance its content, Google has also created Places, which allows individual businesses to be visible with reviews, ratings and other business information, including operation hours and contact information, etc. For a fee, businesses can claim their location and add content such as images to their listing and have its listing appear on top of the search results. At its launch in late 2009, 50 million places were available worldwide.

In addition, Google has also launched various social networking services such as Orkut, Latitude and Buzz. This is an extension of Google's core capability of collecting user data and providing customized search results combined with an interactive layer.

By acquiring AdMob, Google now has expertise in both mobile display ads, in-application ads and mobile search advertising. Google recently introduced a new ad format for mobile devices: location extensions with map features. Google has introduced the new location-aware advertising for iPhone and Android handsets where advertisers now have the ability to select a location extension for display option that will serve up their ads based upon a user's GPS coordinates.

Google has nearly 100% market share in the mobile search industry, but its mobile ad traffic is not as impressive as what Google has on the web. As Apple pointed out with the launch of iAD, mobile browsing is not the optimal or effective medium for mobile ad delivery. Now LBA is gaining momentum with smartphone apps that can make content and advertising more relevant.

Google Challenges

Early on, iSuppli pointed out that Google would make its Maps application available on other platforms, but that expansion of the application into Europe would be difficult because of regulatory challenges to at least one of Google's popular maps feature - Street View. iSuppli also pointed out that the infrastructure in other countries, on which its service base has not been developed to the same level of completeness as in the US. And even before Google Maps Navigation was released, the company faced privacy concerns from individuals as well as lawmakers from multiple countries on the continent. Besides these, the map data used in other countries is not necessarily exclusively Google's proprietary map - Tele Atlas maps are still extensively used in Europe, which made those markets more competitive.

Going forward, all handset platforms will have location APIs that convert location databases into geographic coordinates for location-based app/service developers to utilize. Whether the location database is commercially available data like Skyhook's or its own will be the choice of handset manufacturers.

Motorola, who is heavily tied with Google for its Android smartphones, is building Skyhook's location service into much of its Google Android-based phones worldwide, replacing Google's built-in location service. iSuppli believes that Motorola would like to leverage Skyhook's location database despite licensing fees to have competitive advantage over other Android makers. More importantly, Motorola would want to control the important technology platform on its own and build its own database going forward.


5 01.07.2011

In the mobile sector, Google may face increasingly stiff competition in Europe from Nokia, which has significant smart phone market share. While Google was the first to offer free navigation on Android handsets, Nokia matched the announcement with its own free premium navigation offer. Now Ovi Maps is free to install on an increasing number of handsets, and it can be argued that the application is geared more towards the European market than Google's application. With Ovi Maps it is possible to download and store maps on the device, and use the full navigation application even without network coverage. This is a clear advantage over Google's off-board server based application, which has to rely on network coverage to function. Since roaming data charges remain high, this is a deterrent for the average user.

So, what is the incentive of handset OEMs and OS vendors in constructing their own location databases? First, it will host more location-based service content and application service developers and eventually the end-users would benefit from more and better location-based services. Second, it will host more mobile advertisers in such location-based services. This is what Google and Apple are aiming to achieve. If Motorola and Nokia are able to introduce their own navigation services, why can’t other handset manufacturers? That said, we foresee more companies to enter the ad-based navigation market in the near future.

iSuppli Automotive Analyst Danny Kim


6 01.07.2011

� EMS Revenues Rising, though ODM revenues/profitability remains challenging

iSuppli has increased its revenue forecast for the global outsourced manufacturing industry (EMS and ODM) to $376.7 billion for 2011, ahead of our prior forecast of $360.2 billion. The increase is due to a stronger-than-expected 2010, driven by better than expected results at several large EMS providers, and stronger than previously anticipated EMS outsourcing trends in Asia and the Americas. However, the higher 2010 revenue basis is leading to a lower long-term CAGR of 8.0%, versus 8.8% in our prior forecast.

For additional perspective on our EMS/ODM growth rate, our aggregate global electronic systems factory revenue forecast equates to $1,636.7 billion in 2010 and has a CAGR of 5.8% over the same 2010-2014 period.

Figure 3: Global Outsourced Manufacturing Revenue Forecast (EMS & ODM combined) ($M)


EMS: iSuppli estimates the global EMS revenue to increase to $186.0 billion (previously $165.4 billion) and $202.9 billion ($183.7 billion) for 2010 and 2011, respectively. Asia continues to be the most important regional market for EMS. This is due to a combination of increased production for export in order to lower costs (e.g. China labor rates)) as well as increased production for domestic consumption (China GDP in 2010 is close 10%). From an application point of view, wireless handsets continue to be an important growth driving, offsetting weakness in areas like data processing and automotive.

Figure 4: Global EMS Revenue by Region and Application ($M)



7 01.07.2011

ODM: Although our 2010 and 2011 forecasts are only changed slightly, we did lower our long-term forecast for ODM revenues due to the recent moves by several larger EMS providers to move directly into competition with traditional ODMS as well as some incremental changes to iSuppli’s long-term end-market estimates.

Figure 5: Global ODM Revenue Forecast Comparison ($M)


Profitability:

Average gross margins for the 10 largest global ODM providers tracked by iSuppli declined by over 1% percentage point compared to the year ago quarter and by nearly 1.60% points compared to the preceding quarter. The sequential decline in gross margins was nearly universal with eight out of 10 ODM providers tracked by iSuppli reporting lower margins in the September quarter relative to the June quarter. The primary reason was the slowdown in demand for TV-related panels and units as well as pricing pressure due to increased competition in the notebook PC segment. More display and TV-focused ODM providers reduced utilization rates in the quarter, which impacted margins this past quarter. More computing-focused ODM providers are looking to increase vertical integration as well as cull their current programs/new programs where the margin profiles have become incredibly challenging. iSuppli believes margins should rebound in the fourth quarter.

Figure 6: Gross Margin (%) by 10 largest global ODM providers


iSuppli EMS&ODM Analyst Thomas Dinges


8 01.07.2011

� ZigBee wireless standard making inroads with utility meters; Smart devices to come later

ZigBee, based on the 802.15.4 standard utilizing the 2.4 GHz radio frequency, is a short-range wireless networking standard for data acquisition, sensing, and control application. The main value propositions of ZigBee are that it is designed to be simple, low data rate, low-cost, open standard technology that is also easy, secure and scalable, targeting smart meters and appliances. ZigBee is already starting out as a lower-cost solution versus Bluetooth. Single-chipset solutions had an ASP of $3.0 in 2007 and $2.0 in 2010. We expect the price to continue to fall as penetration increases, believing a $1.50 chipset ASP could be achievable by 2012.

Zigbee is promoted by The ZigBee Alliance (similar in function to the Wi-Fi Alliance), which was formed to specify the upper layers of the protocol stack, from network to application, including application profiles. It is promoted by 14 companies including Cellnet+Hunt, Samsung Electronics, Huawei, Motorola, Ember Schneider and Siemens, etc, and supported by other industry leaders such as Center Point Energy, Atmel, Fujitsu and Hitachi, etc. As of December 2010 there are over 300 member companies in the ZigBee alliance. Essentially, the ZigBee Alliance defines the network and applications software and will provide interoperability testing and certification to ensure that devices from different manufacturers can be used within the same communication system. The Alliance will also certify products that are ZigBee tested and approved.

Utility Metering

iSuppli forecasts that ZigBee enabled product shipments will grow from 19 million units in 2010 to approximately 495 million units in 2014. The key driver for this projected growth is the adoption of ZigBee in the Smart Energy Utility Monitoring application.

iSuppli believes that ZigBee is starting to gain traction in niche applications, especially smart energy metering among utility companies— even though it has failed to meet the early hype of being the dominant technology for wireless sensor mesh networking applications in residential, commercial, and industrial automation applications. iSuppli believes that it will be the first application ZigBee will be successful with. The ZigBee Alliance is actively promoting the standard, showcasing open houses with products from different vendors that implement ZigBee to develop a wireless network within a home.

According to the ZigBee Alliance, 40+ million ZigBee electric meters are being installed in Automated Meter Reading (AMR) applications by over 11 utility companies in the USA with major deployments in California, Texas, Michigan & Virginia. In addition, 40 million meters (from utility RFPs) in the USA are in various stages of business case development and rate approval with local regulatory bodies. In this implementation, the utility company will use a wireline or cellular technology to communicate with the automated meter installed at the side of the home and ZigBee to communicate between the meter reading and various thermostats, load controllers, and appliances within the home.

In contrast with the utility market, iSuppli believes that “mission-critical” industrial control applications will be difficult markets for ZigBee. Industrial systems that have sensor systems will tend to rely on mature wireline or wireless technologies for a networking solution.

Home Automation

ZigBee is also trying to gain momentum in home automation for both residential (home) and commercial building applications. This will encompass everything from controlling heating/cooling, smoke detectors, lighting and security systems, especially in commercial buildings, in addition to the monitoring of gas, water and electrical utilities. In this application, the driver is energy savings—HVAC systems and lighting that can be turned on and off based on occupancy.

iSuppli believes that it will be several years before consumer appliances start incorporating ZigBee to realize the dream of the “intelligent home.” And iSuppli believes that ZigBee will be battling against Bluetooth and wireless USB for PC peripheral slots, such as keyboards and mice.


9 01.07.2011

Figure 7: Zigbee Semiconductor Market Forecast 2010-2014


iSuppli Communications & Consumer Analyst Jagdish Rebello


10 01.07.2011

Noteworthy Developments

� Apple Is Now Moving to Sell Software Online

Yesterday, Apple debuted its new Mac App Store. After successfully moving from music, films and television shows, iPhone/iPad apps, and most recently books, newspapers and magazines, Apple is now attempting to expand its retail success into software. With this portal, Mac users will now be able to purchase/download complete software solutions such as iWork and iLife directly from Apple with relative ease, not just simple, smaller apps. This makes Apple’s move important since the goal is likely to make as much software as possible available through this channel, reducing/eliminating the need for CDs and DVDs for software media.

For software retailers, Apple’s Mac App Store is undoubtedly a source of concern given Apple’s retail success stories to date.

For consumers, the benefits are compelling: 1) Instant gratification and ease of use with “one-click download and install” and 2) cheap pricing with no shipping costs. Consumers aren’t required to support physical costs, such as duplication and transportation costs, associated with traditional software sales, whether through retail or online channels.

Apple also benefits by empowering its devices that don’t have optical disk drives, such as CD or CD/DVD. Now such devices, like the Macbook Air and other new devices, can be equipped with less hardware, benefiting weight, battery consumption and BOM costs, and still possess the same functionality as devices with embedded or external disk drives. Ultimately, Apple’s efforts could help PC devices evolve off such drives. Last but not least, we have been arguing that Mac OS will ultimately be on more devices (and have a touch UI some day), in the same way Windows is now planning. Having internet available for delivery of software is an important step for that future transition, since most smart devices won’t have physical disk drives, but still need access to software (not just apps).

Figure 8: iWork/iLife - Mac App Store Price Comparison vs. Select Online Retailers (as of 1.6.11)



11 01.07.2011

� With Atheros, Qualcomm Now Well Positioned to Capture Opportunities Beyond Handsets

Qualcomm starts 2011 off with a bang by entering into a definitive agreement to acquire Atheros at $45 per share (up from $37 prior to the announcement) in cash, representing an enterprise value of $3.1 billion, per Qualcomm’s press release. The transaction, pending domestic and foreign regulatory approvals, is expected to close in 1H 2011 while the complete merger of the two companies’ operations is anticipated to be in 2012. According to Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and group president of Qualcomm, the Atheros acquisition brings complementary synergies to Qualcomm, who will be able to utilize Atheros’ connectivity products and technologies to capitalize on the growing ubiquitous connectivity potential that is currently developing across mobile phones, computing, and consumer electronics. Dr. Paul E Jacobs, Chairman and CEO of Qualcomm, also commented on the acquisition.

“It is Qualcomm’s strategy to continually integrate additional technologies into mobile devices to make them the primary way that people communicate, compute, and access content. This acquisition is a natural extension of that strategy into other types of devices. The combination of Qualcomm and Atheros is intended to accelerate this opportunity by utilizing best-in-class products for communications, computing, and consumer electronics to broaden existing customer relationships and expand access to new partners and distribution channels.”

The current Atheros president and CEO, Dr. Craig H. Barratt, is expected to join Qualcomm as president of Qualcomm Networking & Connectivity.

Atheros is a global leader of bandwidth intensive WiFi technology solutions. The company has had tremendous success in consumer applications, but hasn’t had much success penetrating the handset market. The merger works in favor of both companies at the handset level. According to iSuppli Communications and Consumer Electronics analyst Jagdish Rebello, “Together, Qualcomm and Atheros have the option of offering a high performance WiFi solution. In addition, their individual expertise (Qualcomm – Baseband, Atheros – WiFi) allows the joint entity to create a Baseband + WiFi combo, a killer solution for the handset space.” In addition, as WiFi becomes more and more applicable and embedded in TVs, STBs, and other CE devices, Qualcomm can now leverage Atheros’ success in the CE market and expand out of the handset space to pursue the fast growing connected home opportunities.

Qualcomm and Atheros already have a mature working relationship through reference designs and common design wins. However, Qualcomm did not acquire Atheros to gain market share in wireless. Rather, it did so to 1) synergize and 2) expand out of handsets. Qualcomm already has in-house Bluetooth and WiFi capabilities. However, the acquisition adds to Qualcomm’s design capabilities, and also increases the company’s exposure in non-handset devices such as tablets. Tablets present a significant opportunity for the new Qualcomm. According to iSuppli Wireless Analyst Francis Sideco, “not all tablets will have 3G or 4G capabilities built in, but all tablets will have WiFi. Now, Qualcomm will be able to make a play in 100% of all tablets whether through 3G/4G or WiFi/Bluetooth or both.” As an aside, iSuppli forecasts that there will be over 57m tablets sold in 2011 and 98m sold in 2012, up from 17m units in 2009.

The acquisition also pits Qualcomm directly against Broadcom, who has been very successful in connectivity solutions (Broadcom owns the WLAN slot in the Apple iPhone). Sideco believes that it is only a matter of time before an EvDO and/or LTE iPhone is introduced. With Qualcomm virtually owning the entire EvDO market, the company will need to be involved on the baseband side for such a phone and Qualcomm could potentially try to put together a package to win the WLAN slot from Broadcom.

iSuppli Wireless Analyst Francis Sideco

iSuppli Communications & Consumer Analyst Jagdish Rebello


12 01.07.2011

� Windows targets a bigger role on tablets and smart devices, consistent with our industry view

At CES, Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer's keynote speech addressed the future of Windows, saying he sees a world where Windows' "full PC productivity" will be brought to a wide range of hardware form factors. Microsoft showed off demos of a new unreleased version of Windows (using the existing, old Windows 7 UI) already running on ARM-based mobile processors using system on a chip (SoC) architectures, designed by Nvidia, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments. However, Microsoft did not unveil the new touch-based, tablet UI that would surely come with this new version of Windows. Microsoft was also quiet on the timing of the release of this new version. The overriding message of Ballmer's address was clear, saying "Windows PCs will continue to adapt and evolve. Windows will be everywhere on every device without compromise".

In our recent tablet industry report, published last month, we argued that Microsoft and creation tablets, enabled by embedded/wireless keyboards and mice as well as an operating system like Windows, will soon transform consumption-based smartphone tablets into more functional compute devices. Our future vision implies a world where many, if not most, notebooks are tablets, saying that tablets with Windows make the device more of a form factor improvement for PC devices. Our view is quite a contrast to many who still see tablets as a new category, dominated by smartphone players like Apple and its iPad. Because of our view, we believe Apple will be more challenged by Microsoft-based tablets than most other contenders, arguing that the ability to run traditional applications software, possess full file format/data compatibility and true network connectivity, all of which enabled by Windows, will be compelling applications, limiting the overall proportion of less capable, consumption-based smartphone tablets, like the current iteration of Apple's iPad. That's not to say we don't believe Apple won't evolve. We believe Apple will empower its Mac OS with a tablet UI, like Windows will soon do, in order to address these same applications. However, as Windows becomes more formidable, Apple's dominance of tablets will lessen.

Another important aspect of this evolution is the development of a tablet UI for Windows, although not demonstrated by Ballmer at CES. Thus, Windows still needs to clarify when a new UI will be available, though the on-going development of a tablet UI is a certainty in our minds. Today, tablets are essentially powered by smartphone O/Ses, which have fairly limited UIs, utilizing apps icons for presentation and control. The interface is a natural fit for a small smartphone screen. However, given the tablet form factor and the difficulty of using traditional Windows on touch devices, the evolution of a tablet-specific UIs for Windows is paramount, since it would address arguably its biggest weaknesses. This weakness is severely limiting Microsoft's presence in tablets. Windows is also limited by its reliance on Intel, limiting Microsoft's role in mobile devices. Lenovo, at CES, showed off their own custom tablet navigation tools to help simplify Windows. However, the lack of a true tablet UI is also one of the biggest weakness of Apple's iPad, running its iOS, a smartphone O/S. Thus, we believe Microsoft's role in tablets as well as Apple’s dominance will likely dramatically change as the present UI bottleneck is overcome. That said, until Microsoft shows off Windows with a tablet UI, this present Apple weakness will likely continue to be overlooked.

Intel/Nokia are also addressing the limitations of smartphone-based tablet UIs by designing one of the first tablet-specific operating systems, MeeGo. A company named UI Centric has also already developed a tablet UI for Windows, now named "Macallan", which also does a good job of showing the difference between tablet and smartphone UIs.


13 01.07.2011

Figure 9: Consumption Tablets Dominate Figure 10: Creation Tablets Create Larger Market


Figure 11: O/S Will Play Larger Role in CE Devices



14 01.07.2011

Calendar

January 2011

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

10 11 12 13 14

Earnings Release

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC)

17 18 19 20 21

Earnings Release

Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX)

Earnings Release

CREE, Inc

(NASDAQ: CREE)

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL)

Western Digital Corp.

(NYSE: WDC)

Linear Technology Corp. (NASDAQ: LLTC)

Int’l Business Machines

(NYSE: IBM)

Earnings Release

Xilinx, Inc

(NASDAQ: XLNX)

Skyworks Solutions, Inc

(NASDAQ: SWKS)

Earnings Release

Fairchild Semiconductor

(NYSE: FCS)

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD)

Johnson Controls

(NYSE: JCI)

Flextronics Int’l Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX)

Maxim Integrated Products

(NASDAQ: MXIM)

Earnings Release

General Electric Co.

(NYSE: GE)

Microsemi Corporation

(NASDAQ: MSCC)

Financial Services

TMT - Valuation Analysis

01.07.11

Market Enterprise 2YR P/E:G Revenue CAGR Margin

7 Day 30 Day YTD Cap Value CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CAGR CY2011 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2010 CY2011-13 CY2011

Automotive Technology 9.9% 7.3% 9.1% 39,310 40,500 12.8x 12.0x 13.5x 7.4% 1.0x 6.3x 6.7x 7.2x 48,339 7.0% 14.5%

Displays (0.5%) (0.2%) (0.5%) 68,166 76,516 12.5x 11.2x 9.5x 26.4% 0.4x 5.4x 3.9x 3.4x 65,430 2.5% 22.2%

LED 3.7% 4.6% 3.6% 18,287 15,719 16.3x 14.6x 17.1x 5.2% 1.4x 9.5x 8.3x 8.2x 3,956 19.9% 32.7%

EMS/ODM (0.3%) 4.7% (0.7%) 57,533 59,951 13.6x 10.9x 9.5x 17.8% 0.7x 6.4x 5.7x 5.4x 157,454 3.9% 5.6%

IP Licensing/EDA 5.3% 10.9% 6.1% 28,481 26,557 37.5x 29.0x 24.7x 22.8% 1.5x 24.7x 20.3x 17.1x 4,047 13.2% 31.8%

Media - Pay TV 2.7% 6.3% 2.9% 168,322 251,039 18.4x 15.6x 13.4x 21.6% 0.8x 6.7x 6.4x 6.0x 117,319 3.3% 31.6%

Media - Content 2.7% 4.4% 2.7% 260,916 303,893 15.6x 14.2x 11.3x 13.0% 1.0x 8.0x 7.5x 7.0x 177,470 4.5% 28.2%

Internet 2.0% 4.1% 3.1% 356,468 310,481 19.8x 33.0x 25.4x 26.1% 1.2x 13.2x 12.0x 10.6x 72,945 14.5% 34.2%

Software 3.2% 6.3% 3.2% 437,646 400,590 17.8x 15.3x 13.7x 14.9% 1.3x 10.9x 10.3x 9.3x 106,166 6.5% 35.8%

Storage - Enterprise 3.7% 7.3% 3.7% 76,714 70,127 18.9x 16.4x 14.7x 8.6% 1.0x 10.2x 8.6x 8.6x 24,558 3.1% 21.4%

Storage - Devices (1.8%) (2.5%) (2.3%) 14,908 12,329 4.8x 11.9x 8.5x (24.5%) - 2.5x 4.3x 3.8x 21,526 10.2% 14.4%

Computers 4.4% 2.5% 4.8% 150,873 151,279 10.5x 10.6x 9.4x 15.6% 0.7x 7.7x 6.5x 5.6x 243,602 5.4% 6.8%

Consumer Electronics 2.2% 3.9% 2.3% 598331 634750 23.9x 17.3x 12.9x 30.6% 0.5x 5.7x 5.3x 5.0x 690107 6.4% 12.6%

Consumer Electronics-Handsets 3.5% 2.4% 3.1% 97,125 88,768 16.7x 12.8x 11.8x 18.7% 0.8x 11.3x 8.5x 8.8x 64,443 8.5% 12.6%

Telecom-North America 2.2% 7.3% 1.8% 291,901 483,608 16.1x 14.0x 12.8x 9.5% 1.3x 5.4x 5.3x 5.2x 308,059 2.5% 31.8%

Telecom-Europe 2.0% 2.4% 2.5% 377,153 641,837 10.6x 10.1x 9.4x 5.4% 1.9x 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x 321,403 0.6% 32.9%

Telecom-Asia 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 325,191 309,094 11.8x 11.4x 10.8x 18.5% 0.8x 4.3x 4.2x 3.9x 194,431 3.4% 37.8%

Telecom-India 0.3% 3.6% (0.9%) 36,235 59,398 18.1x 14.6x 10.8x 29.6% 0.5x 10.0x 8.4x 7.1x 17,607 7.5% 34.6%

Photovoltaics 2.9% (1.2%) 3.1% 31,943 35,748 7.9x 6.9x 6.6x 19.0% 0.5x 5.8x 5.3x 4.7x 25,836 10.0% 17.5%

EBITDA

USD % Change P/E EV/EBITDA

Photovoltaics 2.9% (1.2%) 3.1% 31,943 35,748 7.9x 6.9x 6.6x 19.0% 0.5x 5.8x 5.3x 4.7x 25,836 10.0% 17.5%

Photovoltaics-Capital Equipment 5.3% 12.2% 4.5% 2,505 1,853 11.2x 10.6x 9.1x 20.2% 1.0x 4.9x 3.4x 3.0x 2,101 9.0% 17.9%

Semiconductors - Diversified 2.7% 1.4% 3.0% 64,457 59,451 14.3x 13.0x 12.1x 16.5% 0.9x 7.0x 6.6x 6.3x 31,391 (8.7%) 25.2%

Semiconductors - Computing 1.7% (0.5%) 1.3% 135,723 116,012 19.1x 19.7x 14.1x 14.1% 1.1x 7.0x 7.7x 7.7x 53,537 16.3% 26.0%

Semiconductors - Custom/Prog. 2.8% 2.7% 3.2% 36,871 31,956 14.2x 14.9x 13.0x 6.2% 1.7x 9.5x 9.1x 8.4x 10,225 1.5% 29.5%

Semiconductors - Communications 4.8% (0.7%) 4.9% 45,476 39,623 17.4x 15.6x 13.1x 13.5% 2.2x 10.7x 9.8x 9.4x 12,340 (7.3%) 28.4%

Semiconductors - Wireless 5.7% 7.7% 5.9% 116,990 103,347 17.0x 17.2x 15.8x 9.0% 1.4x 11.8x 11.8x 9.6x 19,834 5.0% 28.9%

Semiconductors - Memory 7.2% 9.5% 7.1% 40700 49925 8.0x 14.0x 9.0x (14.3%) - 3.6x 4.3x 4.1x 31820 (7.9%) 34.1%

Semiconductors - Power/Specialty 1.5% 1.2% 1.7% 13,800 11,928 16.5x 15.4x 13.8x 10.9% 1.8x 9.3x 8.5x 7.7x 5,468 1.6% 25.2%

Semiconductors - Analog 0.4% 2.9% 1.1% 43,804 41,637 14.6x 13.4x 12.3x 28.2% 1.4x 9.3x 8.2x 7.6x 13,446 4.2% 34.5%

Semiconductors - Capital Equipment (2.6%) 2.7% (1.9%) 38,181 32,489 9.3x 9.9x 10.4x 8.1% 0.6x 5.6x 6.3x 6.1x 18,186 1.5% 27.8%

Semiconductors - Foundries 0.6% 3.0% 0.1% 72,053 67,489 10.7x 11.5x 11.4x (3.2%) - 4.4x 3.9x 3.7x 19,788 (2.2%) 46.3%

iSuppli TMT Universe 2.45% 4.05% 2.56% 4,046,062 4,527,893 15.2x 14.6x 12.7x 13.2% 1.1x 8.1x 7.4x 6.8x 2,882,834 4.9% 4.9%

S&P 500 1.3% 4.1% 1.3%

Broad Industrials Sample Group 1.7% 3.9% 1.6% 2,900,629 3,584,712 16.3x 14.4x 12.3x 17.9% 1.0x 8.5x 8.0x 7.4x 2,465,072 4.7% 19.6%

iSuppli Global Semiconductors 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 608,055 553,856 14.1x 14.4x 12.5x 8.9% 1.4x 7.8x 7.6x 7.1x 216,034 0.4% 0.4%

USD millions. Sector share price changes (and Beta) are market cap weighted. Sector valuation averages are median calcs. Valuation metrics are based on consensus estimates. P/E:G calcs use 2011-2013 for growth. Some CY estimates are FY figures.

Financial Services

Technology Sector - Valuation Analysis

01.07.11

Semi/Analog

Semi/Foundries

Semi (all)

Telecom-India

Broad Indus

Consumer Electronics

iSuppli TMT (all)

Internet

S&P 500

Media/Content

LED

EMS/ODM

Media/Pay TV

Software

Automotive Tech

Telecom-North America

Storage/Enterprise

Semi/Wireless

Semi/Memory

IP Licensing/EDA

Photovoltaic/Cap Equip

Internet



iSuppli TMT (all)

Media/Content

Semi (all)

Media/Pay TV

Semi/Diversified

Semi/Custom

Photovoltaics

Software

Handsets

Storage/Enterprise

LED

Computers

Semi/Comm.

IP Licensing/EDA


Semi/Wireless

Semi/Memory

Automotive Tech

Share Price 7-day %∆ Share Price 30-day %∆ Share Price YTD %∆ Beta


Telecom-Europe

iSuppli TMT (all)

Media/Content

Semi (all)

Media/Pay TV

Semi/Diversified

Photovoltaics

Handsets

Internet

Software

Semi/Custom

LED

Storage/Enterprise


Computers

Semi/Comm.

Semi/Wireless

IP Licensing/EDA

Semi/Memory

Automotive Tech

Displays

Computers

Media/Pay TV

iSuppli TMT (all)

Semi/Comm.

Semi (all)

Semi/Wireless

Storage/Enterprise

Media/Content


Semi/Memory

Semi/Cap Equip

Semi/Power

Handsets

Semi/Computing

Storage/Devices

Semi/Diversified

EMS/ODM

LED

Automotive Tech

Photovoltaics

(5%) 0% 5% 10% 15%

Storage/Devices

Photovoltaics

Semi/Comm.

Semi/Computing

Displays

Semi/Power

Semi/Diversified

Telecom-Asia

Telecom-Europe

Handsets

Computers

Semi/Cap Equip

Semi/Custom

Semi/Analog

Semi/Foundries

Semi (all)

Telecom-India

Broad Indus


iSuppli TMT (all)

Internet

S&P 500

Media/Content

LED

EMS/ODM

Media/Pay TV

Software

Automotive Tech


Storage/Enterprise

Semi/Wireless

Semi/Memory

IP Licensing/EDA


(4%) (2%) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Semi/Cap Equip

Storage/Devices

Displays

EMS/ODM

Telecom-India

Semi/Analog

Semi/Foundries

Telecom-Asia

S&P 500

Semi/Power

Semi/Computing

Broad Indus

Telecom-Europe

Internet



iSuppli TMT (all)

Media/Content

Semi (all)

Media/Pay TV

Semi/Diversified

Semi/Custom

Photovoltaics

Software

Handsets

Storage/Enterprise

LED

Computers

Semi/Comm.

IP Licensing/EDA


Semi/Wireless

Semi/Memory

Automotive Tech

Share Price 7-day %∆ Share Price 30-day %∆ Share Price YTD %∆ Beta

(5%) 0% 5% 10%

Storage/Devices

Semi/Cap Equip

Telecom-India

EMS/ODM

Displays

Semi/Foundries

Telecom-Asia

Semi/Analog

S&P 500

Semi/Computing

Broad Indus

Semi/Power



Telecom-Europe

iSuppli TMT (all)

Media/Content

Semi (all)

Media/Pay TV

Semi/Diversified

Photovoltaics

Handsets

Internet

Software

Semi/Custom

LED

Storage/Enterprise


Computers

Semi/Comm.

Semi/Wireless

IP Licensing/EDA

Semi/Memory

Automotive Tech

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

Telecom-Asia

Telecom-Europe


S&P 500

Semi/Foundries

Software

Broad Indus

IP Licensing/EDA

Telecom-India

Internet

Semi/Custom

Semi/Analog


Displays

Computers

Media/Pay TV

iSuppli TMT (all)

Semi/Comm.

Semi (all)

Semi/Wireless

Storage/Enterprise

Media/Content


Semi/Memory

Semi/Cap Equip

Semi/Power

Handsets

Semi/Computing

Storage/Devices

Semi/Diversified

EMS/ODM

LED

Automotive Tech

Photovoltaics

Financial Services


01.07.11

01.07.11

Semi/Diversified

Automotive Tech


Media/Content

Broad Indus

Storage/Enterprise

iSuppli TMT (all)

Semi/Computing

Internet

Telecom-North (

Software

Semi (all)

Semi/Analog

LED

Semi/Wireless

IP Licensing/EDA

Semi/Custom

Semi/Power

Telecom-Europe

Semi/Comm.

Semi/Analog

Semi/Memory


Media/Content

Broad Indus

Semi (all)

iSuppli TMT (all)

Telecom-India

LED

Semi/Custom

Software

Semi/Power

Semi/Comm.

Media/Pay TV

Storage/Enterprise

Semi/Wireless


Semi/Computing

IP Licensing/EDA

Internet

Computers

Semi/Diversified

Automotive Tech

iSuppli TMT (all)

Media/Content

Semi (all)

Semi/Computing

Broad Indus

Semi/Analog

LED

Telecom-India

Handsets

Semi/Power

Storage/Enterprise

Semi/Custom

Semi/Comm.

Software

Semi/Wireless

Internet

IP Licensing/EDA

Semi (all)

Automotive Tech

Media/Pay TV

Telecom-India

Displays

Handsets

Software

Storage/Enterprise

Internet

Semi/Power


LED

Semi/Wireless

Semi/Comm.

Computers

Telecom-Asia

Semi/Foundries

Semi/Computing

Semi/Analog

Photovoltaics

P/E 2011 P/E:G EV/EBITDA 20112011 Revenue Growth vs EBITDA Growth

0.0x 1.0x 2.0x 3.0x

Semi/Analog

Computers

Software

Displays

Photovoltaics


Telecom-India

Semi/Cap Equip

Computers

EMS/ODM

Telecom-Asia

Handsets

Media/Pay TV

Semi/Diversified

Automotive Tech


Media/Content

Broad Indus

Storage/Enterprise

iSuppli TMT (all)

Semi/Computing

Internet

Telecom-North (

Software

Semi (all)

Semi/Analog

LED

Semi/Wireless

IP Licensing/EDA

Semi/Custom

Semi/Power

Telecom-Europe

Semi/Comm.

0x 10x 20x 30x 40x

Photovoltaics

Semi/Cap Equip

Telecom-Europe

Computers


EMS/ODM

Displays

Telecom-Asia

Semi/Foundries

Storage - Devices

Automotive Tech

Handsets

Semi/Diversified

Semi/Analog

Semi/Memory


Media/Content

Broad Indus

Semi (all)

iSuppli TMT (all)

Telecom-India

LED

Semi/Custom

Software

Semi/Power

Semi/Comm.

Media/Pay TV

Storage/Enterprise

Semi/Wireless


Semi/Computing

IP Licensing/EDA

Internet

0 10 20 30


Displays

Semi/Foundries

Telecom-Asia

Storage - Devices

Semi/Memory

Telecom-Europe

Photovoltaics



EMS/ODM

Semi/Cap Equip

Media/Pay TV

Computers

Semi/Diversified

Automotive Tech

iSuppli TMT (all)

Media/Content

Semi (all)

Semi/Computing

Broad Indus

Semi/Analog

LED

Telecom-India

Handsets

Semi/Power

Storage/Enterprise

Semi/Custom

Semi/Comm.

Software

Semi/Wireless

Internet

IP Licensing/EDA

-1.0x 0.0x 1.0x 2.0x


Telecom-Europe

Semi/Custom

Semi/Diversified

iSuppli TMT (all)

Storage/Devices

Semi/Memory

IP Licensing/EDA

EMS/ODM

Semi/Cap Equip


Broad Indus

Media/Content

Semi (all)

Automotive Tech

Media/Pay TV

Telecom-India

Displays

Handsets

Software

Storage/Enterprise

Internet

Semi/Power


LED

Semi/Wireless

Semi/Comm.

Computers

Telecom-Asia

Semi/Foundries

Semi/Computing

Semi/Analog

Photovoltaics

P/E 2011 P/E:G EV/EBITDA 20112011 Revenue Growth vs EBITDA Growth

Financial Services


01.07.11

Valuation vs. EBITDA Growth

Automotive Tech

Consumer Elec.

Display Tech

EMS/ODM

IP Licensing/EDA

Storage - Devices

Media/Pay TV

Internet

Media/Content


Telecom-Asia

Telecom-India

Computers

Handsets

Photovoltaics

Photovoltaics-Cap Equip

Semi/Computing

Semi /Custom

Semi/Wireless

Semi/Power

Semi /Analog

Semi/Cap Equip

Broad IndusTech (all)

LED

Storage/Enterprise

Software

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

EBITDA CAGR 2011-13

Automotive Tech

Consumer Elec.

Display Tech

EMS/ODM

IP Licensing/EDA

Storage - Devices

Media/Pay TV

Internet

Media/Content


Telecom-Europe

Telecom-Asia

Telecom-India

Computers

Handsets

Photovoltaics

Photovoltaics-Cap Equip

Semi/Diversified

Semi/Computing

Semi /Custom

Semi/Communications

Semi/Wireless

Semi/Memory

Semi/Power

Semi /Analog

Semi/Cap Equip

Semi/Foundries

Broad Indus

Semi (all)

Tech (all)

LED

Storage/Enterprise

Software

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

EBITDA CAGR 2011-13

EV/EBITDA CY2011

Financial Services


01.07.11

P/E vs. Growth


IP Licensing/EDA

Media/Pay TV

Internet

Media/ContentTelecom-North America

Telecom-India

Semi/Computing

Semi/Custom

Semi/Comm.Semi/Wireless

Semi/Memory

Semi/Power

Semi/Analog

Broad IndusTech (all)Semi (all)LED

Storage/Enterprise

Software

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

P/E CY2011

Automotive Tech


Display Tech

EMS/ODM

IP Licensing/EDA

Storage - Devices

Media/Pay TV

Internet

Media/ContentTelecom-North America

Telecom-Europe

Telecom-Asia

Telecom-India

Computers

Handsets

Photovoltaics

Photovoltaics/Cap Equip

Semi/Diversified

Semi/Computing

Semi/Custom

Semi/Comm.Semi/Wireless

Semi/Memory

Semi/Power

Semi/Analog

Semi/Cap Equip

Semi/Foundries

Broad IndusTech (all)Semi (all)LED

Storage/Enterprise

Software

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

(30%) (25%) (20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

P/E CY2011

2 YR EPS CAGR 2010-12

Financial Services

Technology Sector - Media / Internet / Software / Storage - Valuation Analysis

01.06.11 Market Enterprise P/E:G Revenue CAGR CAGR

Ticker Name USD Price 7 Day 30 Day YTD Cap Value CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2010 CY2011-13 CY2011-13

Computers

HPQ-US HP 44.88 6.2% 4.9% 6.6% 103,089 113,960 9.9x 8.6x 7.9x 0.7x 6.2x 5.6x 5.4x 125,477 2.5% 15.6%

DELL-US Dell 14.26 4.5% 4.1% 5.2% 27,793 20,342 10.1x 9.6x 9.1x 1.7x 4.2x 4.1x 4.1x 61,531 0.3% 7.6%

2353-TW Acer 2.80 (10.3%) (14.7%) (9.4%) 7,746 7,584 14.0x 11.6x 9.8x 0.6x 10.3x 8.7x 7.4x 22,708 9.1% 3.4%

992-HK Lenovo 0.65 0.8% (10.2%) 1.2% 6,700 4,710 23.2x 15.8x 12.7x 0.5x 8.4x 6.5x 5.6x 21,532 9.7% 2.9%

2357-TW ASUSTek 8.84 (5.4%) (9.9%) (6.8%) 5,545 4,683 10.5x 10.6x 9.4x 1.8x 7.7x 8.2x 7.5x 12,354 - 4.6%

4.4% 2.5% 4.8% 150,873 151,279 10.5x 10.6x 9.4x 0.7x 7.7x 6.5x 5.6x 243,602 5.4% 6.8%


AAPL-US Apple 333.73 3.1% 4.2% 3.5% 309,977 284,250 22.9x 17.3x 14.8x 0.7x 15.0x 11.2x 9.4x 63,719 11.1% 28.6%

005930-SE Samsung Elec. 826.01 (2.7%) 3.7% (2.7%) 107,470 106,771 9.4x 9.5x 8.5x 1.8x 4.3x 4.1x 3.7x 136,889 (10.4%) 17.5%

7974-OK Nintendo 281.48 (0.9%) (0.6%) (0.9%) 35,996 23,958 35.5x 20.1x 17.6x 0.5x 9.8x 9.2x 7.4x 12,898 37.8% 18.0%

6758-TO Sony 36.13 3.5% 0.3% 3.5% 36,304 35,432 37.2x 19.4x 14.8x 0.3x 5.3x 4.5x 4.1x 89,740 (2.9%) 8.5%

6752-TO Panasonic 14.44 5.0% 1.6% 5.0% 29,896 42,841 24.3x 17.6x 12.6x 0.4x 5.2x 5.1x 4.7x 107,049 (1.8%) 7.5%

6501-TO Hitachi 5.43 5.0% 9.3% 5.0% 26,212 57,903 10.8x 10.7x 9.5x 1.6x 5.7x 5.3x 5.0x 111,753 (1.8%) 9.3%

6502-TO Toshiba 5.69 7.9% 8.1% 7.9% 25,095 42,462 23.9x 14.9x 12.9x 0.4x 6.5x 5.9x 5.5x 81,817 7.1% 8.4%

066570-SE LG Electronics 102.14 (3.3%) 1.9% (3.3%) 14,696 23,854 16.2x 11.9x 8.1x 0.3x 17.6x 10.2x 7.8x 48,579 10.5% 4.6%

6753-TO Sharp 10.76 7.7% 9.5% 7.7% 12,685 17,278 32.3x 29.2x 21.9x 1.4x 4.0x 4.3x 4.4x 37,662 7.9% 10.9%

2.2% 3.9% 2.3% 598,331 634,750 23.9x 17.3x 12.9x 0.5x 5.7x 5.3x 5.0x 690,107 6.4% 12.6%

Consumer Electronics-Handsets

NOK-US Nokia 10.59 3.3% 6.5% 2.5% 39,308 34,927 14.2x 12.0x 11.4x 1.0x 6.4x 5.7x 7.3x 55,289 - 10.2%

RIMM-US Research in Motion 61.37 5.7% (3.1%) 5.6% 32,183 30,398 - - - - - - - - - -


EBITDA

RIMM-US Research in Motion 61.37 5.7% (3.1%) 5.6% 32,183 30,398 - - - - - - - - - -

2498-TW HTC 31.09 1.1% 3.0% 0.9% 25,634 23,444 19.2x 13.5x 12.2x 0.5x 16.1x 11.2x 10.2x 9,154 8.5% 14.9%

3.5% 2.4% 3.1% 97,125 88,768 16.7x 12.8x 11.8x 0.8x 11.3x 8.5x 8.8x 64,443 8.5% 12.6%


T-US AT&T 29.15 0.9% 4.5% 0.7% 173,093 239,112 12.8x 11.6x 10.7x 1.3x 5.6x 5.3x 5.2x 124,390 1.6% 35.5%

VZ-N Discovery Comm. 36.23 3.3% 11.6% 2.6% 102,531 196,433 16.1x 16.0x 14.3x 2.6x 5.7x 5.5x 5.3x 105,864 2.5% 33.0%

S-US Sprint Nextel 4.65 11.8% 11.5% 9.9% 13,903 29,535 - - - - 5.2x 5.2x 5.0x 32,382 3.0% 17.4%

AMX-US America Movil 58.82 1.9% 0.7% 0.8% 2,374 18,528 16.4x 14.0x 12.8x 1.1x 1.0x nmf nmf 45,423 2.7% 41.3%

2.2% 7.3% 1.8% 291,901 483,608 16.1x 14.0x 12.8x 1.3x 5.4x 5.3x 5.2x 308,059 2.5% 31.8%

Telecom-Europe

VOD-LN Vodafone 2.72 4.1% 5.4% 4.9% 141,499 192,947 10.6x 10.6x 10.1x nmf 8.5x 8.4x 8.3x 69,925 1.6% 32.4%

TEF-MC Telefonica 22.24 (0.4%) (0.7%) (0.4%) 100,394 187,650 9.4x 8.9x 8.5x 1.9x 6.2x 6.0x 5.9x 78,919 0.5% 37.6%

FTE-FR France Telecom 21.20 2.6% 2.4% 3.3% 56,141 97,214 8.5x 9.1x 9.1x - 4.7x 4.7x 4.8x 59,631 (0.1%) 34.3%

DTE-XE Deutsche Telecom 12.85 1.1% (0.9%) 1.1% 55,775 125,370 12.5x 12.4x 11.7x 3.4x 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x 82,083 0.3% 31.6%

BT.A-LN BT Group 2.87 (0.0%) 4.8% 1.5% 23,345 38,655 13.3x 10.1x 9.4x 0.5x 4.7x 4.4x 4.3x 30,845 0.5% 28.4%

2.0% 2.4% 2.5% 377,153 641,837 10.6x 10.1x 9.4x 1.9x 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x 321,403 0.6% 32.9%

Telecom-Asia

941-HK China Mobile 9.97 1.1% (0.7%) 0.6% 199,985 158,293 11.2x 10.8x 10.3x 2.4x 4.3x 4.2x 4.0x 73,219 2.7% 48.8%

9437-TO NTT Docomo 1718.88 1.6% 5.8% 1.6% 71,515 72,783 11.8x 11.4x 10.8x 2.6x 3.9x 3.9x 3.8x 50,753 3.2% 36.3%

762-HK China Unicom 1.43 0.3% 6.8% 0.3% 33,908 43,886 47.8x 29.6x 21.0x 0.6x 4.8x 4.3x 3.9x 25,053 7.3% 37.1%

017670-SE SK Telecom 152.77 (1.6%) (0.8%) (1.6%) 12,335 17,654 9.4x 8.4x 7.6x 0.8x 4.6x 4.4x 4.0x 11,918 3.2% 32.8%

728-HK China Telecom 0.54 4.0% 6.1% 2.7% 7,447 16,478 18.6x 15.1x 12.6x 0.7x 1.4x 1.3x 1.3x 33,488 0.8% 34.0%

1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 325,191 309,094 11.8x 11.4x 10.8x 0.8x 4.3x 4.2x 3.9x 194,431 3.4% 37.8%

Telecom-India

BHARTIARTL-INBharti Airtel 7.79 (0.1%) 3.4% (0.5%) 29,593 43,678 19.4x 15.6x 12.1x 0.6x 9.7x 7.9x 6.8x 12,810 8.8% 36.0%

RCOM-IN Reliance Comm. 3.08 2.0% 4.3% (2.8%) 6,642 15,720 16.8x 13.5x 9.5x 0.4x 10.2x 8.8x 7.4x 4,797 6.3% 33.1%

0.3% 3.6% (0.9%) 36,235 59,398 18.1x 14.6x 10.8x 0.5x 10.0x 8.4x 7.1x 17,607 7.5% 34.6%

iSuppli Global Telecom 1.7% 3.6% 1.6% 1,030,480 1,493,937 14.2x 12.5x 11.0x 1.1x 6.1x 5.7x 5.3x 841,500 3.5% 34.3%


Financial Services

Technology Sector - Media / Internet / Software / Storage - Valuation Analysis



Media - Pay TV

CMCSA-US Comcast 22.76 3.5% 10.9% 4.0% 63,953 90,605 18.1x 15.6x 13.4x 0.9x 6.2x 5.9x 5.6x 37,788 2.6% 39.0%

DTV-US DIRECTV 41.17 2.7% 2.1% 3.1% 35,733 43,916 17.4x 13.4x 10.3x 0.4x 7.0x 6.4x 5.8x 23,983 5.9% 26.2%

TWC-US Time Warner Cable 66.54 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 24,021 44,514 18.6x 15.0x 12.3x 0.7x 6.5x 6.3x 6.0x 18,822 2.0% 36.6%

BSY-LN BSkyB 11.54 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 20,245 20,245 19.1x 15.8x 13.9x 0.9x 9.4x 8.3x 7.6x 9,792 4.2% 23.5%

CVC-N Cablevision Systems 34.82 2.1% 5.7% 2.9% 10,521 21,413 26.6x 17.7x 14.2x 0.5x 8.3x 7.7x 7.2x 7,238 4.3% 36.0%

DISH-US Dish Network 21.09 9.2% 14.5% 7.3% 9,413 13,269 9.8x 8.8x 8.8x 1.5x 4.5x 4.2x 4.2x 12,636 1.4% 23.8%

CHTR-US Charter Comm. 39.22 1.8% 10.7% 0.7% 4,436 17,076 - 44.1x 20.0x - 6.7x 6.4x 6.1x 7,060 2.8% 36.3%

2.7% 6.3% 2.9% 168,322 251,039 18.4x 15.6x 13.4x 0.8x 6.7x 6.4x 6.0x 117,319 3.3% 31.6%

Media - Content

DIS-US Walt Disney 39.65 5.8% 6.6% 5.7% 76,961 88,766 19.0x 16.3x 14.2x 1.0x 10.1x 9.1x 8.2x 38,297 6.0% 24.1%

NWSA-US News Corp. 14.81 2.2% 4.1% 1.7% 38,891 44,155 13.2x 11.6x 10.2x 0.9x 7.2x 6.5x 6.2x 33,004 4.4% 19.7%

TWX-US Time Warner 33.27 3.7% 7.0% 3.4% 37,861 50,414 14.2x 12.7x 11.3x 1.1x 8.0x 7.5x 7.1x 26,526 3.5% 24.3%

VIV-FR Vivendi 27.31 1.2% 5.3% 2.7% 33,870 33,870 9.5x 9.4x 9.1x 3.6x 3.1x 3.1x 3.0x 37,433 1.2% 28.8%

VIA'B-US Viacom 40.42 2.5% 1.8% 2.0% 24,709 24,709 14.1x 12.2x 10.8x 0.8x 6.8x 6.3x 5.9x 13,483 4.2% 27.8%

DISCA-O Discovery Comm. 40.31 (3.6%) (6.0%) (3.3%) 17,374 20,034 22.8x 19.1x 15.7x 0.9x 12.6x 11.1x 10.3x 3,789 5.3% 44.4%

CBS-US CBS 19.47 2.2% 10.7% 2.2% 13,518 18,983 17.9x 14.2x 11.1x 0.5x 8.0x 7.3x 6.6x 14,019 4.2% 18.0%

LINTA-US Liberty Media 15.88 1.5% (0.9%) 0.7% 9,592 14,072 15.6x 21.7x 16.4x - 8.2x 7.5x 7.0x 8,868 5.6% 19.8%

SNI-N Scripps Networks 48.52 (6.6%) (6.8%) (6.2%) 8,141 8,891 20.5x 18.2x 15.8x 1.3x 9.7x 8.6x 7.7x 2,052 6.2% 46.5%

2.7% 4.4% 2.7% 260,916 303,893 15.6x 14.2x 11.3x 1.0x 8.0x 7.5x 7.0x 177,470 4.5% 28.2%

Internet

EBITDA


Internet

GOOG-US Google 613.50 2.4% 6.1% 3.3% 197,778 166,513 21.2x 18.2x 15.9x 1.2x 12.8x 10.9x 9.3x 21,681 12.6% 59.4%

AMZN-US Amazon 185.86 1.7% 4.4% 3.3% 84,752 79,031 - 53.2x 38.3x 1.3x 36.2x 25.6x 19.5x 34,224 21.3% 7.0%

EBAY-US Ebay 28.42 1.0% (3.6%) 2.1% 37,754 32,391 16.9x 15.3x 13.8x 1.5x 9.9x 9.0x 8.0x 9,140 5.8% 35.5%

YHOO-US Yahoo 17.06 1.8% 4.5% 2.6% 22,912 20,166 19.8x 21.6x 19.7x nmf 13.6x 13.1x 11.9x 4,571 4.8% 32.8%

NFLX-US Netflix 177.99 (1.0%) (8.0%) 1.3% 9,599 9,579 - 46.1x 32.7x 1.2x 28.8x 22.1x 16.9x 2,163 20.1% 14.9%

BIDU-US Baidu 105.16 7.4% (4.3%) 9.2% 3,673 2,801 - 44.4x 31.1x 0.9x 4.2x 2.7x 1.9x 1,166 22.3% 55.5%

2.0% 4.1% 3.1% 356,468 310,481 19.8x 33.0x 25.4x 1.2x 13.2x 12.0x 10.6x 72,945 14.5% 34.2%

Software

MSFT-US Microsoft 28.82 3.5% 7.4% 3.3% 250,590 216,833 11.7x 10.7x 9.8x 1.1x 7.2x 6.7x 6.2x 68,626 3.4% 44.0%

SAP-XE SAP 50.18 0.1% 4.1% 0.1% 59,613 61,827 17.8x 15.3x 13.6x 1.1x 12.0x 10.3x 9.3x 15,927 8.1% 33.7%

VMW-US Vmware 94.54 5.3% 9.9% 6.3% 40,329 37,875 63.9x 52.8x 44.2x 2.6x 37.9x 32.0x 27.5x 2,825 3.0% 34.8%

CRM-US Salesforce.com 143.34 8.4% (1.3%) 8.6% 19,644 19,370 121.5x 99.7x 77.1x 3.9x nmf 50.1x 42.6x 1,650 16.8% 19.2%

ADBE-US Adobe 32.27 5.6% 10.4% 4.8% 16,520 15,574 17.0x 14.1x 12.7x 0.9x 9.8x 8.9x 8.3x 3,771 8.2% 41.9%

INTU-US Intuit 48.30 (2.5%) 3.2% (2.0%) 15,263 15,087 23.4x 20.0x 17.6x 1.3x 12.1x 10.6x 9.7x 3,421 5.2% 37.4%

SYMC-US Symantec Corp. 17.69 5.5% 4.0% 5.7% 13,904 14,264 12.9x 11.5x 10.0x 0.9x 7.0x 6.5x 5.9x 6,076 2.2% 33.9%

CTXS-US Citrix System 68.90 0.8% (0.9%) 0.7% 13,160 12,253 34.0x 30.2x 27.0x 2.5x 21.8x 19.4x 17.0x 1,853 5.1% 30.6%

BMC-US BMC Software 47.54 (0.0%) 4.0% 0.8% 8,624 7,507 15.9x 14.9x 13.7x 1.9x 8.1x 7.5x 7.0x 2,018 - 46.6%

3.2% 6.3% 3.2% 437,646 400,590 17.8x 15.3x 13.7x 1.3x 10.9x 10.3x 9.3x 106,166 6.5% 35.8%

Storage - Enterprise

EMC-US EMC Corp. 23.67 3.4% 7.6% 3.4% 50,814 48,048 18.9x 16.4x 14.7x 1.2x 10.2x 9.6x 8.8x 16,904 0.3% 26.5%

NTAP-US NetApp 57.49 4.7% 7.9% 4.6% 22,519 19,259 28.1x 25.8x 22.4x 2.1x 18.0x 15.8x 14.8x 4,996 5.9% 21.1%

QLGC-US QLogic Corp. 17.19 1.1% (4.2%) 1.0% 1,874 1,570 12.9x 11.8x 10.0x 0.9x 7.7x 7.3x 8.3x 589 - 34.2%

ELX-US Emulex Corp. 11.80 1.1% 2.0% 1.2% 971 798 24.4x 17.8x 14.8x 0.6x 10.8x 8.6x - 443 - 18.3%

XRTX-US Xyratex 17.12 4.3% 3.8% 5.0% 535 451 3.9x 6.4x 6.9x - 2.9x 4.1x 3.9x 1,625 - 6.7%

3.7% 7.3% 3.7% 76,714 70,127 18.9x 16.4x 14.7x 10.2x 8.6x 8.6x 24,558 3.1% 21.4%

Storage - Devices

WDC-US Western Digital 33.01 (1.9%) (4.2%) (2.6%) 7,724 5,185 5.3x 12.5x 9.4x - 2.4x 4.0x 3.6x 9,924 11.1% 13.8%

STX-US Seagate 14.75 (1.7%) (0.7%) (1.9%) 7,183 7,143 4.3x 11.2x 7.5x - 2.6x 4.5x 3.9x 11,602 9.4% 15.1%

(1.8%) (2.5%) (2.3%) 14,908 12,329 4.8x 11.9x 8.5x 2.5x 4.3x 3.8x 21,526 10.2% 14.4%


Financial Services

TMT - Valuation Analysis



Automotive Technology

JCI-US Johnson Controls 40.34 5.5% 2.5% 5.6% 27,552 30,642 20.6x 16.0x 13.5x 0.7x 12.3x 10.2x 8.7x 33,906 10.1% 8.1%

GRMN-US Garmin 30.90 (0.3%) (2.5%) (0.3%) 6,035 4,777 11.0x 12.0x 13.9x - 6.3x 6.7x 7.2x 2,717 - 27.9%

LEA-US Lear Corp 105.76 9.0% 12.3% 7.1% 5,722 5,080 12.8x 11.6x 10.7x 1.2x 6.0x 5.2x 4.8x 11,717 3.9% 7.4%

9.9% 7.3% 9.1% 39,310 40,500 12.8x 12.0x 13.5x 1.0x 6.3x 6.7x 7.2x 48,339 7.0% 14.5%

Displays

GLW-US Corning 19.51 0.8% 4.4% 1.0% 30,826 28,263 9.4x 10.3x 9.5x - 12.7x 11.6x 10.4x 6,463 3.8% 34.3%

034220-SE LG Display 35.31 (0.9%) (4.0%) (0.9%) 12,678 13,258 11.5x 10.0x 8.1x 0.5x 3.3x 3.0x 2.7x 22,434 7.9% 18.6%

3481-TW Chimei Innolux 1.31 (4.8%) (6.2%) (5.0%) 9,610 16,480 29.2x 12.6x 10.4x 0.2x 5.4x 3.9x 3.4x 16,846 - 19.9%

2409-TW AU Optronics 1.02 (1.2%) (1.4%) (1.2%) 9,046 12,097 17.8x 11.3x 10.3x 0.4x 3.2x 2.9x 2.8x 16,462 (4.4%) 23.3%

000725-SZ BOE Tech 0.48 2.5% (4.8%) 1.2% 3,987 4,608 - - - - - - - 2,016 - -

3034-TW Novatek 3.26 0.8% (4.0%) 1.4% 2,018 1,810 12.5x 11.2x 9.5x 0.8x 10.1x 9.1x 7.6x 1,209 - 14.9%

(0.5%) (0.2%) (0.5%) 68,166 76,516 12.5x 11.2x 9.5x 0.4x 5.4x 3.9x 3.4x 65,430 2.5% 22.2%

LED

CREE-US Cree 67.22 1.7% (0.6%) 2.0% 7,368 6,270 28.5x 25.0x 20.6x 1.4x 15.1x 12.5x 10.3x 1,141 15.2% 34.6%

AIXG-US Aixtron 39.25 7.0% 15.3% 5.4% 3,979 3,373 16.3x 15.6x 22.2x - 8.6x 8.3x 20.6x 1,015 - 37.9%

2448-TW Epistar 3.60 (1.3%) 3.5% (1.3%) 3,157 2,804 15.8x 14.6x 13.6x 1.9x 9.5x 8.5x 8.2x 702 (2.0%) 37.8%

VECO-US Veeco Instruments 45.95 6.2% (2.5%) 7.0% 1,942 1,578 10.0x 9.5x 12.5x - 5.0x 4.6x 4.8x 996 - 31.8%

PANL-US Universal Display 34.78 13.7% 19.4% 13.5% 1,313 1,249 - - 34.4x - - nmf nmf 27 70.7% 13.2%

RBCN-US Rubicon Tech 22.04 2.7% (6.5%) 4.6% 528 445 19.6x 10.5x 12.5x 0.4x 13.9x 6.6x 7.8x 75 (4.3%) 41.1%

3.7% 4.6% 3.6% 18,287 15,719 16.3x 14.6x 17.1x 1.4x 9.5x 8.3x 8.2x 3,956 19.9% 32.7%

EBITDA


3.7% 4.6% 3.6% 18,287 15,719 16.3x 14.6x 17.1x 1.4x 9.5x 8.3x 8.2x 3,956 19.9% 32.7%

EMS/ODM

2317-TW Hon Hai 3.92 (2.1%) 1.4% (2.5%) 38,464 40,068 14.5x 12.3x 10.5x 0.7x 9.3x 8.0x 7.3x 98,791 2.8% 4.0%

FLEX Flextronics 7.97 1.8% 3.0% 1.5% 6,251 6,689 9.3x 8.3x 7.8x 0.9x 5.4x 4.9x 4.6x 28,560 3.6% 4.5%

JBL-US Jabil 21.45 8.0% 31.2% 6.8% 4,663 5,347 14.3x 9.6x 8.6x 0.3x 7.1x 5.5x 4.9x 13,432 7.1% 6.0%

V03-SG Venture Corp 7.33 1.8% 4.6% 2.6% 2,010 1,832 13.8x 12.2x 11.1x 1.1x 9.6x 8.6x 8.1x 2,081 (1.3%) 9.3%

CLS-US Celestica 9.86 1.9% 6.5% 1.6% 2,283 1,575 - - - - - - - - - -

PLXS-US Plexus 30.60 (0.8%) 8.2% (1.1%) 1,256 1,195 14.6x 12.5x 10.6x 0.7x 8.8x 7.3x 6.4x 2,003 8.9% 7.0%

BHE-US Benchmark Elec. 18.07 0.2% 6.4% (0.5%) 1,122 787 13.3x 12.2x 11.0x 1.2x 5.8x 5.4x 5.0x 2,385 - 5.7%

SANM-US Sanmina-SCI 12.32 6.8% 9.3% 7.3% 1,019 1,724 10.1x 6.9x 5.8x 0.2x 5.4x 4.5x 4.2x 6,307 2.0% 5.6%

CCET-TH Cal-Comp 0.11 0.3% 4.5% 0.3% 465 733 8.2x 7.6x 6.1x 0.5x 5.7x 5.8x 5.7x 3,895 - 3.1%

(0.3%) 4.7% (0.7%) 57,533 59,951 13.6x 10.9x 9.5x 0.7x 6.4x 5.7x 5.4x 157,454 3.9% 5.6%

IP Licensing/EDA

ARM-LN ARM 7.45 10.9% 19.7% 12.7% 10,047 9,646 56.8x 48.5x 41.1x 2.8x 40.8x 34.9x 29.1x 609 14.7% 41.0%

ROVI-US ROVI 63.86 3.1% 14.2% 3.0% 6,955 6,929 30.5x 25.6x 21.1x 1.3x 25.1x 20.3x 17.3x 541 8.1% 55.0%

SNPS-US Synopsys 26.68 (1.4%) 1.2% (0.9%) 4,089 3,145 16.7x 15.3x 14.0x 1.7x 8.3x 6.6x 6.9x 1,361 - 31.4%

RMBS-US Rambus 20.36 (0.1%) (4.4%) (0.6%) 2,278 1,912 15.4x - 31.3x - 8.6x nmf - 323 - 4.2%

CDNS-US Cadence 8.44 1.8% 3.6% 2.2% 2,222 2,259 48.5x 24.4x 14.0x 0.3x 14.8x 10.0x 7.0x 925 - 22.3%

IMG-LN Imagination Tech 5.95 4.8% (5.3%) 5.6% 1,532 1,477 48.2x 32.6x 24.7x 0.8x 34.7x 23.3x 16.9x 157 17.0% 32.7%

MIPS-US MIPS Tech 17.34 10.9% 25.5% 14.3% 848 783 33.6x 29.0x - - 24.4x 20.0x - 87 - 40.6%

CEVA-US CEVA 22.78 10.8% (2.6%) 11.1% 509 407 41.4x 33.9x 30.6x 2.1x 36.0x 28.6x 25.0x 44 - 27.4%

5.3% 10.9% 6.1% 28,481 26,557 37.5x 29.0x 24.7x 1.5x 24.7x 20.3x 17.1x 4,047 13.2% 31.8%


Financial Services

Technology Sector - Photovoltaics (Solar) - Valuation Analysis



Photovoltaics

FSLR-US First Solar 134.53 2.6% 0.4% 3.4% 11,652 11,040 17.6x 14.8x 12.3x 0.8x 12.1x 10.0x 8.0x 2,600 18.7% 29.5%

S92-XE SMA Solar 91.26 (0.2%) 2.3% (0.2%) 3,167 2,518 6.8x 8.8x 9.0x - 3.6x 4.4x 4.5x 2,401 (3.8%) 26.0%

WFR-N MEMC Elec. 11.35 2.1% (5.0%) 0.8% 2,583 2,583 26.4x 11.0x 8.2x 0.1x 10.5x 5.5x 4.1x 2,269 4.7% 17.6%

SOLF-US Solarfun 8.32 0.5% (6.5%) 2.1% 2,464 2,603 6.1x 4.9x 4.1x 0.2x 13.1x 11.0x 8.0x 1,102 - 17.7%

TSL-US Trina Solar 24.70 6.6% 2.3% 5.5% 1,947 1,788 7.4x 6.9x 6.4x 0.9x 4.3x 4.2x 4.0x 1,716 (12.6%) 20.9%

YGE-US Yingli Green Energy 10.43 4.8% (2.0%) 5.9% 1,628 2,479 8.3x 7.4x 7.0x 0.9x 5.6x 5.3x 4.6x 1,785 (5.3%) 21.6%

SOL-US ReneSola 9.27 6.7% (1.0%) 6.1% 1,603 1,855 4.9x 4.5x 4.2x 0.6x 6.2x 5.9x 5.7x 1,181 - 22.8%

STP-US Suntech Power 8.38 6.9% (7.3%) 4.6% 1,519 2,303 - 6.8x 7.1x - 7.0x 5.2x 4.6x 2,796 6.7% 13.1%

LDK-US LDK Solar 10.29 2.1% (8.5%) 1.7% 1,399 2,967 6.6x 5.7x 4.9x 0.3x 6.8x 5.5x 5.3x 2,210 (8.3%) 19.7%

SPWRA-US SunPower Corp. 13.63 4.7% 6.1% 6.2% 1,440 1,688 8.9x 7.3x 6.1x 0.4x 5.5x 4.6x 4.4x 2,209 10.6% 13.2%

JASO-US JA Solar Holdings 7.02 2.5% (7.0%) 1.7% 1,149 1,215 5.3x 5.0x 4.6x 0.7x 3.6x 3.3x 2.9x 1,727 - 18.1%

ESLRD-US Evergreen Solar 3.15 (11.0%) (37.5%) (9.9%) 108 438 - - - - nmf 7.3x 4.7x 347 55.2% 13.7%

CSIQ-US Canadian Solar 13.26 7.4% (3.9%) 7.0% 579 704 10.8x 6.4x 6.6x 0.2x 5.8x 4.4x 4.8x 1,459 - 8.7%

QCE-XE Q-Cells SE 3.11 (5.8%) 12.5% (5.8%) 465 1,262 14.4x 11.7x 9.3x 0.5x 5.8x 5.2x 4.8x 1,727 8.7% 13.1%

ENER-US Energy Coversion 4.83 6.3% 3.5% 5.1% 241 306 - - - - - 12.2x 6.8x 305 35.2% 6.7%

2.9% (1.2%) 3.1% 31,943 35,748 7.9x 6.9x 6.6x 0.5x 5.8x 5.3x 4.7x 25,836 10.0% 17.5%

Photovoltaics-Capital Equipment

SOLR-O GT Solar 9.95 10.5% 21.8% 9.1% 1,501 1,207 9.0x 8.0x 8.6x 4.0x 5.1x 5.5x 5.4x 834 8.4% 26.2%

CTN-XE Centrotherm 33.91 (4.4%) (3.7%) (4.4%) 718 433 11.2x 10.6x 9.1x 1.0x 3.6x 3.4x 3.0x 798 12.1% 14.8%

R8R-XE Roth & Rau 16.81 3.9% 2.6% 3.9% 245 172 20.5x 11.6x 9.4x 0.2x 4.7x 3.2x 2.7x 379 6.4% 12.6%

SPIR-US Spire 4.98 (4.8%) (2.4%) (4.4%) 42 42 - - - - 19.8x - - 90 - -

EBITDA


SPIR-US Spire 4.98 (4.8%) (2.4%) (4.4%) 42 42 - - - - 19.8x - - 90 - -

5.3% 12.2% 4.5% 2,505 1,853 11.2x 10.6x 9.1x 1.0x 4.9x 3.4x 3.0x 2,101 9.0% 17.9%

iSuppli Global Photovoltaics 3.1% (0.3%) 3.2% 34,448 37,601 9.5x 8.7x 7.9x 0.7x 5.3x 4.3x 3.9x 27,937 9.5% 17.7%


Financial Services

Technology Sector / Semiconductors - Valuation Analysis



Semiconductors - Diversified

TXN-US Texas Instruments 33.25 2.3% 0.9% 2.3% 39,767 37,257 13.3x 13.0x 12.1x 2.7x 7.0x 7.1x 6.9x 13,945 4.5% 37.3%

IFX-XE Infineon Tech. 9.24 0.8% (7.3%) 0.8% 10,042 8,126 19.0x 15.5x 14.1x 1.0x 7.0x 6.1x 5.8x 5,696 3.9% 26.4%

STM-FR STMicro 11.05 6.6% 10.4% 8.6% 10,056 9,817 14.3x 12.3x 10.9x 0.9x 5.5x 5.1x 4.7x 10,245 (34.5%) 17.7%

CY-US Cypress 18.92 2.9% 7.6% 1.8% 3,533 3,531 20.2x 16.9x 12.1x 0.6x 14.6x 13.0x 12.4x 881 - 27.8%

IDTI-US Integrated Devices 6.72 (0.1%) (2.0%) 0.9% 1,059 720 11.5x 11.9x 8.3x 0.7x 6.9x 6.6x - 623 - 16.9%

2.7% 1.4% 3.0% 64,457 59,451 14.3x 13.0x 12.1x 0.9x 7.0x 6.6x 6.3x 31,391 (8.7%) 25.2%

Semiconductors - Computing

INTC-US Intel 20.77 (1.2%) (4.3%) (1.2%) 118,264 99,846 10.4x 10.7x 10.1x nmf 4.9x 4.8x 4.7x 43,537 6.4% 45.7%

NVDA-US NVIDIA 19.33 29.0% 33.2% 25.5% 11,263 9,299 34.0x 26.3x 21.9x 1.1x 16.6x 13.5x 12.2x 3,536 24.0% 18.8%

AMD-US Advanced Micro Devices 8.69 6.8% 11.1% 6.2% 6,196 6,867 19.1x 19.7x 14.1x 1.2x 7.0x 7.7x 7.7x 6,464 18.4% 13.7%

1.7% (0.5%) 1.3% 135,723 116,012 19.1x 19.7x 14.1x 1.1x 7.0x 7.7x 7.7x 53,537 16.3% 26.0%

Semiconductors - Custom/Prog.

ALTR-US Altera 36.33 1.1% (2.9%) 2.1% 11,519 9,534 14.7x 15.3x 14.3x nmf 10.9x 11.0x 10.3x 1,944 0.5% 41.6%

XLNX-US Xilinx 30.14 3.7% 5.3% 4.0% 7,935 7,383 13.3x 13.9x 12.5x nmf 8.7x 8.9x 8.3x 2,360 6.5% 35.1%

MCHP-US Microchip Tech. 35.02 1.7% (0.4%) 2.4% 6,678 5,644 15.3x 14.5x 13.3x 1.9x 10.3x 9.4x 8.5x 1,446 1.2% 39.1%

ATML-US Atmel 13.08 6.6% 11.6% 6.2% 6,124 5,610 22.2x 20.3x 17.8x 1.7x 19.6x 12.4x 10.6x 1,621 (2.0%) 24.9%

LSI-US LSI Corp 6.12 2.0% 2.7% 2.2% 3,878 3,278 12.3x 12.2x 10.2x 1.2x 7.4x 8.6x 5.8x 2,555 - 14.3%

LSCC-US Lattice Semi 6.08 0.2% 16.5% 0.3% 736 507 13.7x 15.3x 12.7x nmf 7.9x 7.7x 6.8x 298 - 21.8%

2.8% 2.7% 3.2% 36,871 31,956 14.2x 14.9x 13.0x 1.7x 9.5x 9.1x 8.4x 10,225 1.5% 29.5%

EBITDA


Semiconductors - Communications

BRCM-US Broadcom 44.86 2.4% (1.6%) 3.0% 24,415 22,021 16.5x 15.4x 14.4x 2.1x 12.4x 11.4x 10.8x 6,750 (9.9%) 25.1%

MRVL-US Marvel Technology 19.56 6.5% (3.3%) 5.4% 13,199 10,523 11.8x 11.5x 10.8x 2.4x 8.7x 7.9x 8.0x 3,639 (23.2%) 33.5%

NETL-US NetLogic Microsystems 35.33 11.7% 5.7% 12.5% 2,400 2,181 24.5x 23.6x 19.9x 2.2x 15.5x 13.9x 10.8x 382 - 36.7%

PMCS-US PMC-Sierra 8.89 3.9% 6.1% 3.5% 2,083 1,900 12.2x 11.6x 11.3x 2.7x 9.0x 8.2x 7.1x 633 - 31.4%

CAVM-US Cavium Networks 44.66 16.2% 12.9% 18.5% 2,152 2,083 51.7x 37.0x 30.5x 1.2x 40.6x 27.6x 20.8x 206 11.4% 28.0%

2379-TW Realtek 2.42 2.7% (1.5%) 1.4% 1,227 914 18.2x 15.8x 11.9x 0.7x 8.1x 7.6x 6.2x 730 - 15.7%

4.8% (0.7%) 4.9% 45,476 39,623 17.4x 15.6x 13.1x 2.2x 10.7x 9.8x 9.4x 12,340 (7.3%) 28.4%

Semiconductors - Wireless

QCOM-US Qualcomm 52.67 5.9% 9.0% 6.4% 85,378 76,408 22.3x 19.0x 17.4x 1.4x 15.8x 13.6x 12.0x 10,884 4.0% 44.1%

2454-TW MediaTek 14.09 0.9% (2.9%) (1.5%) 15,549 12,687 13.8x 16.5x 14.0x - 10.4x 11.3x 9.5x 3,935 7.7% 29.6%

SWKS-US Skyworks Solutions 30.15 3.7% 9.2% 5.3% 5,570 5,185 24.6x 17.9x 15.8x 0.7x 18.8x 13.6x 11.8x 1,068 7.9% 29.0%

ATHR-US Atheros 44.56 25.2% 29.8% 24.1% 3,241 2,766 18.5x 22.0x 18.4x nmf 13.2x 13.7x 9.6x 922 - 21.6%

RFMD-US RF Micro Devices 7.76 4.0% 5.4% 5.6% 2,153 2,124 11.4x 10.3x 9.6x 1.2x 7.8x 7.4x 6.9x 1,102 - 24.4%

TQNT-US TriQuint Semi 13.39 11.9% 3.2% 14.5% 2,178 1,991 15.5x 14.1x - - 10.8x 8.5x - 875 - 23.0%

HITT-US Hittite Microwave 62.01 0.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1,872 1,599 24.3x 23.1x 21.1x 3.1x 12.8x 12.4x - 244 - 47.3%

CSR-LN CSR plc 5.75 4.2% 13.0% 4.4% 1,049 587 14.5x 15.2x 12.2x 1.7x 5.7x 5.6x 4.9x 802 0.2% 12.5%

5.7% 7.7% 5.9% 116,990 103,347 17.0x 17.2x 15.8x 1.4x 11.8x 11.8x 9.6x 19,834 5.0% 28.9%

iSuppli Global Semiconductors 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 608,055 553,856 14.1x 14.4x 12.5x 1.4x 7.8x 7.6x 7.1x 216,034 0.4% 0.4%


Financial Services

Technology Sector / Semiconductors - Valuation Analysis



Semiconductors - Memory

000660-SE Hynix Semi 23.18 7.9% 8.1% 7.9% 13,683 18,753 5.2x 8.4x 7.2x - 3.6x 4.5x 4.8x 10,830 (12.5%) 40.4%

SNDK-US SanDisk 52.73 4.7% 10.5% 5.8% 12,693 11,469 12.0x 14.0x 13.8x - 6.5x 7.4x 10.0x 4,804 - 29.6%

MU-US Micron 8.58 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 8,849 10,022 4.4x 15.9x 8.0x - 2.8x 3.4x 3.0x 8,635 (7.8%) 33.3%

6665-TO Elpida Memory 12.41 10.1% 10.9% 10.1% 2,857 7,766 8.0x 16.4x 9.9x - 3.4x 3.9x 3.5x 6,645 (3.5%) 31.6%

2337-TW Macronix 0.74 7.3% 15.3% 6.2% 2,618 1,915 8.6x 7.2x - - 5.6x 4.3x - 907 - 35.4%

7.2% 9.5% 7.1% 40,700 49,925 8.0x 14.0x 9.0x - 3.6x 4.3x 4.1x 31,820 (7.9%) 34.1%

Semiconductors - Power/Specialty

SLAB-US Silicon LAboratories 49.24 6.4% 5.7% 7.0% 2,265 1,937 21.9x 23.8x 18.2x 2.4x 14.6x 17.1x 15.7x 489 - 22.7%

IRF-US Int'l Rectifier 30.06 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 2,119 1,606 17.3x 15.4x 13.8x 1.3x 7.9x 6.5x 5.6x 1,124 (8.8%) 20.3%

FCS-US Fairchild Semi 16.48 3.2% 7.6% 5.6% 2,095 2,027 11.3x 12.0x 10.2x 2.1x 5.3x 5.3x 4.7x 1,602 2.1% 23.7%

MSCC-US Microsemi 22.92 (0.1%) (4.6%) 0.1% 1,895 1,699 19.8x 12.6x 10.0x 0.3x 11.8x 6.9x 5.7x 514 - 30.2%

SMTC-US Semtech Corp 22.63 (1.4%) (4.4%) (0.0%) 1,461 1,276 13.7x 12.6x 11.2x 1.2x 9.3x 8.5x 7.7x 452 - 30.8%

DIOD-US Diodes 27.15 (0.4%) 2.4% 0.6% 1,240 1,120 15.3x 14.8x 14.2x 3.7x 7.4x 6.7x 6.4x 613 9.0% 25.1%

POWI-US Power Integration 40.22 (1.3%) (1.6%) 0.1% 1,178 998 20.1x 21.2x 17.1x 2.5x 12.3x 12.1x 9.6x 297 - 26.4%

MPWR-US Monolothic Power 16.11 (1.8%) (6.8%) (2.5%) 608 423 14.1x 19.0x 15.6x - 8.0x 9.7x 8.2x 219 4.3% 20.9%

VLTR-US Volterra Semi 23.48 (0.3%) (1.2%) 1.4% 610 513 16.5x 16.6x 13.2x 1.4x 12.6x 11.4x 8.4x 156 - 26.5%

AOSL-O Alpha & Omega 13.96 8.0% 7.3% (22.9%) 330 330 - - - - - - - - - -

1.5% 1.2% 1.7% 13,800 11,928 16.5x 15.4x 13.8x 1.8x 9.3x 8.5x 7.7x 5,468 1.6% 25.2%

Semiconductors - Analog

ADI-US Analog Devices 37.81 (0.4%) 1.7% 0.4% 11,597 9,302 16.3x 14.3x 13.6x 1.5x 9.3x 8.2x 7.9x 2,744 2.9% 38.6%

EBITDA


ADI-US Analog Devices 37.81 (0.4%) 1.7% 0.4% 11,597 9,302 16.3x 14.3x 13.6x 1.5x 9.3x 8.2x 7.9x 2,744 2.9% 38.6%

LLTC-US Linear Tech 34.70 (0.3%) 1.7% 0.3% 8,018 8,133 14.6x 13.4x 12.8x 2.0x 9.8x 9.6x 8.8x 1,515 3.1% 53.6%

MXIM-US MAXIM Integrated 24.10 1.4% (0.9%) 2.0% 7,271 6,852 15.0x 14.2x 12.3x 1.4x 8.0x 7.9x 7.6x 2,417 2.4% 34.5%

AVGO-US AVAGO Tech 28.52 (1.2%) 6.5% 0.4% 7,073 7,164 14.6x 11.9x 11.3x 0.9x 11.2x 10.1x 9.4x 2,097 3.0% 31.2%

ONNN-US ON Semi 10.42 5.8% 14.2% 5.4% 4,582 4,827 11.7x 11.3x 9.2x 0.8x 8.2x 7.8x 6.8x 2,310 8.0% 25.0%

NSM-US National Semi 14.08 2.2% (3.5%) 2.3% 3,447 3,612 11.6x 11.3x 10.3x 1.9x 6.4x 6.4x 5.9x 1,527 6.4% 36.3%

ISIL-US Intersisl Corp. 14.66 (5.4%) (0.1%) (4.0%) 1,817 1,746 - 17.4x 14.2x 0.1x 9.7x 8.8x 7.0x 836 3.4% 22.4%

0.4% 2.9% 1.1% 43,804 41,637 14.6x 13.4x 12.3x 1.4x 9.3x 8.2x 7.6x 13,446 4.2% 34.5%

Semiconductors - Capital Equipment

AMAT-US Applied Materials 13.89 (1.7%) 6.7% (1.1%) 18,611 16,226 15.1x 11.4x 10.4x 0.6x 8.2x 6.3x 6.1x 9,267 2.9% 26.1%

KLAC-US KLA-Tencor 38.20 (2.6%) (4.0%) (1.1%) 6,488 5,711 9.3x 9.9x 8.9x nmf 5.1x 5.4x 5.3x 2,830 (15.1%) 38.4%

LRCX-US Lam Research 47.29 (9.8%) (4.4%) (8.7%) 5,921 5,008 8.1x 9.2x 10.9x - 5.6x 5.9x 6.1x 3,188 1.6% 27.8%

6857-TO Advantest Corp 22.99 4.9% 7.0% 4.9% 4,060 2,991 44.2x 23.5x 21.6x 0.5x 16.0x 9.7x 8.6x 1,299 14.6% 20.0%

TER-US Teradyne 13.52 (4.8%) 0.3% (3.7%) 3,101 2,553 6.5x 9.7x 8.3x - 4.8x 6.8x 7.0x 1,602 3.3% 26.6%

(2.6%) 2.7% (1.9%) 38,181 32,489 9.3x 9.9x 10.4x 0.6x 5.6x 6.3x 6.1x 18,186 1.5% 27.8%

Semiconductors - Foundries

2330-TW Taiwan Semi 2.43 0.7% 3.7% 0.1% 63,085 59,556 11.8x 11.9x 11.8x nmf 7.2x 6.6x 6.0x 14,262 1.7% 57.8%

2303-TW United Microelec. 0.54 (1.5%) (3.0%) (2.4%) 6,946 5,415 9.7x 11.1x 11.1x - 3.2x 3.2x 3.1x 4,002 - 41.9%

981-HK Semi Mfg Int'l 0.08 5.2% 0.0% 8.9% 2,021 2,517 - - - - 4.4x 3.9x 3.7x 1,524 (6.0%) 39.2%

0.6% 3.0% 0.1% 72,053 67,489 10.7x 11.5x 11.4x - 4.4x 3.9x 3.7x 19,788 (2.2%) 46.3%

iSuppli Global Semiconductors 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 608,055 553,856 14.1x 14.4x 12.5x 1.4x 7.8x 7.6x 7.1x 216,034 0.4% 0.4%



26 01.07.2011

End-to-End Market Intelligence

Retail and End-User Brand Value Analysis Institutional Sales Buyer Preference Kayle Watson Consumer Sell-Through 917.697.8958 [email protected] Alternative Energy Photovoltaics

Application Markets Automotive Electronics Consumer Electronics Computer Platforms Industrial Electronics United States Wired Communications Global Headquarters Wireless Communications 1700 East Walnut Avenue Suite 600 Equipment Markets Flat Panel monitors El Segundo, CA 90245 Global Manufacturing and Design Phone: 310.524.4007 Navigation and Telematics Fax: 310.524.4050 Projection Systems Signage/Professional Displays Television Systems Wired Communications Wireless Communications

Devices and Systems Semiconductors Displays Teardowns ▪ Application Forecasts ▪ Component Pricing ▪ Audio Systems ▪ Analog and Power ▪ Display electronics ▪ Automotive Systems ▪ ASICs and ASSPs ▪ Emerging Technologies ▪ Computer Platforms ▪ Component Pricing ▪ LCD ▪ Gaming Consoles ▪ Design Activity and Influence ▪ OLED ▪ Mobile Handsets ▪ Inventory Tracking ▪ Monitors ▪ Monitors ▪ Memory ▪ Mobile ▪ Networking Equipment ▪ MEMS ▪ Panel Cost Modeling ▪ PMPs and MP3s ▪ Processors ▪ Plasma ▪ PNDs ▪ Semiconductor Design/IP ▪ Profitability and Costs ▪ Set-Top Boxes ▪ Semiconductor Manufacturing ▪ Small/Medium ▪ Storage Systems ▪ Semiconductor Market Shares ▪ Supply Chain ▪ Televisions ▪ Systems Pricing ▪ Wireless Systems

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Tech Weekly 010711

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Transcript of Tech Weekly 010711