TEASER for the presentation by Chris Blok, Chris.Blok@WUR ... · [email protected] 1 The world’s...

TEASER for the presentation by Chris Blok, [email protected] at the IPS 50th Anniversary Jubilee

Reflections on the world’s need for growing media for food and quality of

life in the period 2020-2050.

The presentation starts with solid data on the world demographic trends and food situation. These data then serve to support some surprising conclusions with direct implications for the way rooting media producers approach the substrate market. The impact of obesities on the substrate market already surpasses that of hunger relief; Recirculation is an incredibly powerful reason to use soilless cultivation but even in the Netherlands its potential is poorly realised; The anticipated growth of cities will power markets for ornamental substrates to enhance the quality of life.

The second part will compare various developments in soilless cultivation starting with the areas / volumes of various rooting media including peat, coir, wood fibre and water cultures. For each material the market prospects will be discussed including the anticipated market growth. Combining market prospects with production potential of the various materials will again lead to surprising conclusions with direct implications for the way rooting media producers approach the substrate market.

Finally it will be discussed why rooting media producers may want to intensify cooperation with system builders and architects of electronic cultivation advise. It will be argued that the challenges of a growth market require a lot of work other than sales. In a growth market annual growth in production volume is not enough to survive; only those who grow faster

than the market average will remain relevant. That future is no doubt promising but certainly more demanding than business as usual.

For: International Peatland Society

CONFIDENTIAL

06/09/2018

Wageningen University & Research

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The world’s need for growing media

Reflections on peat use for food and quality of life in the period 2020-2050

2018 09 11, International Peatlands Society 50th Anniversary Convention

Chris Blok and many others, Wageningen University & Research

Overview

�A Why growing media?

�B What volumes are we talking about?

�C Prognosis to 2050


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A: Growing Media

� GM = materials for soilless cultivation including peat /sphagnum, coir, wood, stone wool, and water.

Containers SlabsBlock / plugs

A: Quantities involved / possible future

2017 2050

Mm3/yr Mm3/yr

Peat 40

Coir 5

Wood fibre 2

Bark 1

Compost 1

Perlite 1.5

Stone wool 0.9

Soils / tuffs 8

New

Total 59 244


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A: Cultivation System

� Technology for yield (GM, fertigation, drain, support)

�Economy for profit (costs and knowledge)

A: Why Soilless Cultivation?

�Growers: +15% (growth), +5/50% (crop health)

�Society: healthy vegetables, soothing ornamentals

�Environment: recirculation of water, zero emission


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A: Conclusions

�Soilless Cultivation provides serious answers

�Recirculating of water and nutrients is essential

Overview

�A Why growing media?




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B: Peat (growing + energy): global store

� 5 Mkm2 World area of peat

� 1.5 m1 Average depth

� 7.5*106 Mm3 World volume of peat

� 150 kg/m3 Density

� 1130 Gt World mass of peat

B: Coir

� 60 Mton/yr World mass of whole coconuts

� 60 Mm3/yr World volume available annually

Coir is a by-product and has competing uses so not all is available as growing medium


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B: Wood Fibre

� 1708 Mm3/yr Global volume harvested

� 1138 Mm3/yr Volume of soft wood pine fibre

B: Bark

� 139 Mm3/yr Volume of soft wood pine bark


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Compost

Population Volume

Mio Mm3

Holland 17 2

Total 7000 371

But: disregarding landfill, mixing with impurities, metals, salts, pathogens...

B: Perlite

� 2.0 Mton/yr World mass produced

� 16 Mm3/yr Potential volume available

Based on present production capacity which of course can be adapted


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B: Stone Wool

� 12 B Euro World wide production

� 120 Mm3/yr Potential volume available

Based on present production capacity which of course can be adapted

B: Tuff/Pumice/Pouzolane/..

� 8 Mm3/yr Volume in horticulture annually

� 100 Mm3/yr Potential volume in horticulture

But large quality fluctuations including: free calcium, harmful trace elements, poorly

graded materials, unstable materials (degradation into fines)


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B: Maintainable annual potential

2017 2050 Potential

Mm3/yr Mm3/yr

Peat 40 ??

Coir 5 60

Wood fibre 2 1139

Bark 1 140

Compost 1 15?

Perlite 1.5 16

Stone wool 0.9 120

Soils / tuffs 8 100?

Total 59 2025

B: Conclusions

� Competition is on quality rather than volumes

� Coir is the first and foremost volume limited material

� Peat is eventually a volume limited material

� Compost and Tuff are quality limited


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Overview

�A Why soilless cultivation?



C: Market Estimate 2017-2050

People F&V Plants

Income Class Billion g/day l/yr

2017 Poor 1 0 0

2017 Low 3 25 0

2017 Middel 2 100 5

2017 Top 1 100 12

2017 Total 7

2050 Poor 0.5 0 0

2050 Low 3 25 0

2050 Middel 4 120 12

2050 Top 2.5 160 24

2050 Total 10


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C: Total Growing Media Market 2017-2050

2017 2050

Mm3 Mm3 Demand increase %

Vegetables 19 48 255

Ornamentals 40 196 491

Total 59 244 415

C: Per Continent Market 2017-2050

2017 2050

Mm3 Mm3

Europe 26 60

North America 17 60

Asia 7 80

of which China 6 35

South America 4 17

Australia 2 7

Africa 3 20

Total 59 244


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C: Non proportional growth 2017-2050

2017 2050 Increase

Mm3/yr Mm3/yr %

Peat 40 80?? 250%

Coir 5 35 700%

Wood fibre 2 25 1250%

Bark 1 10 1000%

Compost 1 5 500%

Perlite 1.5 10 667%

Stone wool 0.9 4 433%

Soils / tuffs 8 33 413%

New 23

Total 59 244

C: Technological Developments: Sphagnum Paludiculture


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C: Technological Developments: Water Culture

C: Technological Developments: Biochar Geotextile


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Conclusions

� The market is growing fast

� Growing Media are still developing

� Growing media, irrigation and fertilisation are a triangle

● Technology

● Extension

● IT

� The future is bright for those who anticipate

Wageningen UR

Greenhouse

Horticulture

Innovations for the horticultural sector

Commissioned by

THANKS!

SPEAKER INFORMATION: Christiaan (Chris) Blok, [email protected] EXPERTISE: Rooting Media and Plant Nutrition, Recirculation Techniques SCIENTIFIC CAREER: -1984 MSc Tropical Soil Science -1993 Research Engineer for a stone wool producer -1995 Research Manager for a propagator of a gamma of young plants -now Wageningen University & Research, Greenhouse Horticulture OUTPUT: - 434 publications, including 160 articles, 5 patents - Convener of the 2013 ISHS Symposium on Rooting Media and Composts - Convener of the bi-annual substrate knowledge day AMBITION: My focus is on innovation in cooperation with (conglomerates of) private companies. I strife to open up new fields of application based on solid fundamental science. My drive is to become the best in areas of choice. Present work includes novel rooting media, water quality, automation of nutrient recirculation, humates, carriers for beneficial micro-organisms, tailored substrate systems for Semi-Arid environments. KEY PUBLICATIONS: -Blok, C., Jackson, B.E., Guo, X., de Visser, P.H.B. and Marcelis, L.F.M. (2017). Maximum Plant Uptakes for

Water, Nutrients, and Oxygen Are Not Always Met by Irrigation Rate and Distribution in Water-based Cultivation Systems. Front. Plant Sci., 11 April 2017; https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.00562

-Blok, C., Salm, C.V.D., Hofland-Zijlstra, J., Streminska, M., Eveleens, B., Regelink, I., Fryda, L., and Visser, R. (2017). Biochar for Horticultural Rooting Media Improvement: Evaluation of Biochar from Gasification and Slow Pyrolysis. Agronomy 2017, 7(1), 6; doi:10.3390/agronomy7010006

-Blok, C., Kreij, C.D., Baas, R., and Wever, G. (2008). Analytical methods used in soilless cultivation. In: Raviv, M., and Lieth, J.H. (2008). Soilless Culture: Theory and Practice. Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Handout for the presentation by Chris Blok, [email protected] at the IPS 50th Anniversary Jubilee

Reflections on the world’s need for growing media for food and quality of

life in the period 2020-2050.

Growing media in soilless cultivation are relevant in several ways: Growers because of the more accurate application of water and nutrients

(+15% growth) and avoiding soil diseases (+5/50%). Society because vegetables are essential in a more healthy life style and

ornamentals promote wellbeing for the 70% of people living in cities in 2050. Authorities because growing media allow recirculation of drainage which saves

50% of water and eliminates emissions of nitrate, phosphate, etc.

The present volumes used for peat, coir, wood fibre, bark, compost, perlite, rockwool and tuffs are compared with the potentially available volumes of these materials. It turns out coir and perhaps peat are limited by annually available volumes and compost and tuff by available quality.

Finally an estimation of the increase in demand is made, based on the expected growth of the world population combined with the expected increase in living standards for most people. These data combined suggest a 2.5 times increase in vegetable production and a 5 times increase in ornamental production may be possible. The rooting media volume traded in

2050 is therefore estimated surpass the present amount about four times. Quality maintenance, finding new classes of materials, proper communication with society and a broader product package (growing media and technology and knowledge support) will all be important to meet the demands. The future is no doubt promising but only for those who anticipate.

Table 1. World volume of growing media used in 2017 and 2050 (estimated).

2017 2050 Increase

Mm

3/yr Mm

3/yr %

Peat 40 80?? 250%

Coir 5 35 700%

Wood fibre 2 25 1250%

Bark 1 10 1000%

Compost 1 5 500%

Perlite 1.5 10 667%

Stone wool 0.9 4 433%

Soils / tuffs 8 33 413%

New 23

Total 59 244

b

TEASER for the presentation by Chris Blok, Chris.Blok@WUR ... · [email protected] 1 The world’s...

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