TEAM RESEARCH PROJECTS (ANILLOS) IN SCIENCE AND …

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TEAM RESEARCH PROJECTS (ANILLOS) IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND IN ANTARCTIC SCIENCE 2009

FINAL REPORT

I. PROJECT PRESENTATION

PROJECT TITLE CODE

Quantitative methods in security ACT-87 PROJECT DIRECTOR SIGNATURE

Raúl Manasevich Tolosa

MAIN INSTITUTION Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas Blanco Encalada 2120 p7 Santiago PERIOD INFORMED

Feb-2010 – Dec-2013

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a) Main researchers’ information

MAIN RESEARCHER(Complete Name) SIGNATURE

José Miguel Benavente Hormazabal WORKING ADDRESS PHONES EMAIL

Escuela de Negocios Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez. Diagonal Las Torres 2700 of 305. Peñalolén.

[email protected]


Richard Weber Haas WORKING ADDRESS PHONES EMAIL Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas Departamento de Ingeniería IndustrialRepública 701, Santiago

[email protected]


Junior Rolando De La Cruz Mesía WORKING ADDRESS PHONES EMAIL Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Departamento de Salud Pública Facultad de Medicina Marcoleta 434, Casilla 114D, Santiago

[email protected]

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b) Associated researchers’ information

ASSOCIATED RESEARCHER(Complete Name) SIGNATURE

Fernando Iván Ordoñez Pizarro

WORKING ADDRESS PHONES EMAIL Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial República 701, Santiago

(56-2) 29784064 [email protected]


Julio Bernardo Aracena Lucero

WORKING ADDRESS PHONES EMAIL Departamento de Ingeniería Matemática FCFM Universidad de Concepción Av. Esteban Iturra s/n Barrio Universitario Concepción



Susana Eyheramendy Duerr

WORKING ADDRESS PHONES EMAILDepartamento Estadística, Facultad de Matemáticas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Av. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago


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II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This section should have no more than 3 pages written with any letter style point size 12. Summarize the updated achievements of the project including those related to research objectives, international collaboration, training activities, results dissemination to the scientific community and outreach to non-specialized public. The contents of this section are public and may be published in CONICYT’s website. This summary has to inform the potential reviewers about the progress of the project and the way these advances have come to be. Since this summary has to be available to non-experts in your area we request the use of relatively simple language or explanations when technical term do require. The research team of this Anillo project focused in the following main activities during the period of the project: 1) research and training of students and young researchers, 2) obtaining and consolidating a national and international presence of CEAMOS the Center for Analysis and Modeling of Security (www.ceamos.cl), formed by the research team of this project, and 3)study and solution of applied problems in security that require advance quantitative methods. 1) Concerning research and training of students and young researchers it is worth mentioning that there were no previous research projects and/or groups related with this area in Chile when this Anillo project was initiated, the research area proposed was new at national levels. This is one of the main reasons for the training of students and young researchers to be considered as one of the fundamental activities during the project by the team members. Under the guidance of the team members and some external partners, twenty-one (21) research assistants worked in the project during its duration. Their research work, in many cases, led to postgraduate theses and theses toward an engineering degree as well as papers. In particular, five (5) theses need it to obtain the degree of Mathematical Engineering or Industrial Engineering were finished with another one (1) near to be finished. On the other hand, six (6) masters theses were finished, with other seven (7) theses in progress, and there are two (2) PhD theses in progress near to be finished. We also invited six (6) young researchers to participate in different research lines not leading to a degree. Most of the results obtained during their research have been presented in national and/or international meetings. We can say that as a result of this effort we have expanded the number of researchers involved in this new topic of quantitative methods in security. Concerning research of the team members, 20 paperswere written covering the different areas of research originally proposed; 10 of them are publishedin main journals (ISI level or equivalent) and 2 are in press (online) in journals of similar prestige, and there are 8 additional papers submitted to publication. Additionally 17 talks in international meetings and 16 talks in national meetings were given by the team members and research assistants. 2) The task of obtaining and consolidating a national and international presence for the research team of this project, CEAMOS, was undertaken by performing different actions some of which we describe next. Notice that this centerwas scarcely known at the beginning of the project. A Memorandum of Understanding between the Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies (ICURS) at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada and CEAMOS was signed on January 4, 2010. This MoU was a key ingredient that facilitated joint research and exchange of students and academics during the project. Three international meetings in Chile and two international meetings - Canada and United Kingdom, were organized by the team members. Three versions of the Workshop on Analysis and Modeling of Security (WAMOS) between 2011 and 2013, were successfully organized in Chile. It is worth mentioning that WAMOS became the first and most recognized specialized seminar around security issues from the point of view of quantitative methods in all Latin-American countries.

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Among the best and most renowned researchers in the globe attended the workshop during its first three versions. It now has became a tradition were world class research is presented not only to other academics but also to policy makers domestic and internationally. As a consequence of these WAMOS meetings, members of the group were invited to organize joint international meetings, one in Canada together with the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences (PIMS) and the Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies (ICURS) both institutions from Canada, and the other one with the Jill Dando Institute at the University College of London (UCL) in London. This way CEAMOS was consolidated as a fundamental node in the world class research network in security issues. At a national level the team members promoted a set of different actions with public entities like Gendarmerie of Chile, National Police of Investigation (PDI), Carabineros de Chile and other institutions like Paz Ciudadana Foundation and other Centers at different Universities. Among these actions we can mention two agreements of cooperation signed by CEAMOS one with Gendarmerie of Chile and the other with ACIPOL, the police academy of sciences of Carabineros of Chile. As a by product of these agreements several joint meetings to detect research subjects of mutual interest were held with these institutions where some applied problem of importance for them were proposed, some of these problems are exposed below. As animportant consequence of the agreement signed with Carabineros de Chile, CEAMOS and ACIPOL delivered in 2011 a first joint program on Quantitative Methods in Security consisting in a series of lectures on application of engineering to crime modeling as well as a course on crime prevention delivered by a member of ACIPOL. The program was addressed to police officers and advanced engineering students. New series of lectures are being planned for the period after the project is ended. Starting 2012, in the framework of the project, CEAMOS started to organize a national seminar that now is called the Brown Bag Seminar. The main objective of this seminar wasto invite national relevant people and police membersinvolved in research and/or applications of methodologies oriented to reduce or prevent crime in Chile. Researchers from different academic institutions were also invited to present their works. In its origin this seminar was an informal one but with the time it picked up to became an important meeting point for the people in security. Thus public personalities like the deputy Felipe Harboe (recently elected senator for the Chilean State) was one of the speakers in this seminar as well as Carolina Toha, mayoress of the city of Santiago. The opinion about security matters of some of important foreign researchers that visited us during the project as well as the opinion of the main speakers at the Brown Bag Seminar and other personalities has been disseminated by means of a Bulletin sent electronically by CEAMOS to a large national audience. Another important action by the team was to participate in a special committee on public safety, organized by the Institute of Engineering of Chile during 2012 and 2013. Chairman of this committee was former Minister of Pubic Works and Education, Sergio Bitar, a member of the Institute and one of the country's political leaders. Two team members, Jose Miguel Benavente and Raul Manasevich actively participated in this committee and in the drafting of a document. This document with the state of art in public safety in Chile, which also proposes a number of actions to improve public safety in the coming years,it is ready to be distributed nationwide. 3)Concerning applications to applied problems that require advance skills. During the development of the project several applied problems requiring advance modeling and skills were proposed to the team members by different public institutions and national and international agents. We next describe some of the most important ones.

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With Carabineros de Chile. Analysis and improvement of actions and decisions at the Emergency Call Center of Carabineros de Chile (133). Using recent results from queueing theory, we analyzed the respective system and proposed ways how a better service level could be reached. This work led to an engineering thesis at the Universidad de Chile and two engineering theses at the Chilean Police Academy which have been developed jointly. On the other hand members of the team are beginning some research work in two projects. One of them seeks to develop a mathematical predicting methodology that will allow efficient use of resources for an early detection of cross-border crime. The other project consisting in four independent lines of research, but complementary for predicting outbreaks of criminality in the city. Each line targets the development and implementation of software with the ability to be installed on systems platforms in use by Carabineros de Chile today. With Police of Investigations(PDI). Team members performed a project to analyze and redesign the internal processes of the “Crime Analysis Unit” within Chilean Police of Investigations (Policía de Investigaciones, PDI). We consider it a major impact of this project that PDI, based on our analysis, implemented a completely new structure of their units responsible for crime analysis. With Gendarmerie of Chile a project that focus on different aspects of capacity management in the Chilean prison system and operational challenges in the Chilean Prison Service. One master thesis at the University of Chile was obtained. International projects with IDB (BID). During 2013, the research team was invited to participate in two IDBprojects that we describe in what follows. With Transcrime Joint Research Centre on Transnational Crime (Università Cattolica di Milano/Università di Trento).STAD evaluation. In 2011, STAD (Sistema Táctico de Análisis Delictual) was implemented by the Chilean government and Carabineros de Chile. It was a system mainly based on COMPSTAT, a policing model applied during the 1990’s in New York by the NY Police Department. In May 2013, the Regional Public Goods (RPG) called for bids to evaluate the impact of Public Security Programs in eight countries of Latin America, sponsored by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB).The Chilean program STAD was one of them. TRANSCRIME invited CEAMOS to jointly apply to that bid. and in August 2013 were the only team selected for presenting an evaluation proposal to IDB, see Appendix 9. This proposal was submitted in September 2013 and we are waiting for a final decisión to begin with the evaluation. With Department of Security and Crime Science of theUniversity College London. Prof. Richard Wortley, Head of Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London in representation of that department invited in June 2013 some members of CEAMOS to jointly submit a proposal to the Ministry of Interior of Uruguay for a Training course in Problem Oriented Policing . This training course is part of a larger program called Police training program for years 2014-2015 funded by the Uruguayan government and a loan from IDB and oriented to improve the security in that country. The project was successfully won by the team of the Department of Security and Crime Science at University College London and University CEAMOS Chile. See Appendix 9 and we are in the process of implementing this training course for next year. Awards and editorial activities. -Fernando Ordonez and collaborators received two (2) important International Research Awards: 2011 Rist Prize and the 2012 Wagner Prize. -Raul Manasevich joined the advisory board for Lecture Notes in Social Networks (LNSN) series published by Springer 2013. It was also named Honorary Co-Chair for the International Symposium on Foundations of Open Source Intelligence and Security Informatics Beijing, China, August 12-13, 2014.

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III. RESUMEN EJECUTIVO Esta sección no deberá extenderse más de 3 páginas escritas en letra tamaño 12 o equivalente. Resuma los logros del proyecto a la fecha, incluyendo aquellos relacionados con los objetivos de investigación, colaboración internacional o nacional, actividades de formación, difusión de resultados a la comunidad científica así como al público no-especializado. Los contenidos de esta sección son públicos y pueden ser colocados en la página WEB de CONICYT. Esteresumen debe informar a los potenciales evaluadores sobre los avances del proyecto. Dado que este resumen debe ser asequible a aquellas personas que no son necesariamente expertas en el área, le solicitamos el uso de un lenguaje relativamente simple o de explicaciones cuando los términos técnicos así lo requieran. El trabajo del equipo de investigación de este proyecto Anillo se desarrolló principalmente en las siguientes actividades: 1) investigación y formación de estudiantes y jóvenes investigadores, 2) obtener y consolidar la presencia nacional e internacional de CEAMOS, el Centro de Análisis y Modelamiento de la seguridad(www.ceamos.cl), formado por el equipo de investigación de este proyecto, y 3) estudio y solución de problemas aplicados en seguridad que requieren métodos cuantitativos avanzados. 1) Respecto de la investigación y la formación de estudiantes y jóvenes investigadoresvale la pena mencionar que al inicio de este proyecto no existían en Chile proyectos y/o grupos relacionados, esto porque, el área de investigación propuesta era nueva en el ámbito nacional. Esta es una de las razones principales para que la actividad de formación de estudiantes y jóvenes investigadores fuera considerada, por parte de los miembros del equipo, como una de las actividades fundamentales a desarrollar en el proyecto. Bajo la dirección de los miembros del equipo y algunos colaboradores externos, veintiún (21) ayudantes de investigación trabajaron en el proyecto. Este trabajo, en muchos casos, llevó a tesis de postgrado y memorias para obtener el titulo de ingeniero, así como a escribir artículos de investigación. Más concretamente durante el proyecto se terminaron cinco (5) memorias para Ingeniería Matemática e Ingeniería Industrial, con una más cerca de finalizar. Se desarrollaron y terminaron seis (6) tesis de magister, y otras siete (7) están en curso, y finalmente hay dos (2) tesis doctorales en desarrollo próximas a finalizar. Adicionalmente trabajaron con el grupo, en las diferentes líneas de investigación, seis (6) jóvenes investigadores. La mayor parte de los resultados obtenidos por todos estos jóvenes investigadores han sido presentados en reuniones nacionales y/o internacionales. Podemos decir que como resultado de este esfuerzo formativo, hemos ampliado el número de investigadores que participan en este nuevo tema de métodos cuantitativos en seguridad a nivel nacional. En cuanto a la investigación de los miembros del equipo, se escribieron 20 artículosque abarcan las diferentes áreas de investigación propuestas originalmente en el proyecto: 10 de ellos están publicadosen revistas de corriente principal (nivel ISI o equivalente), y 2 están en prensa (online) en revistas de similar prestigio, y hay 8 artículosque están sometidos a publicación. Ademáslos miembros del equipo y ayudantes de investigación dieron 17 charlas en reuniones internacionales y 16 conferencias en congresos nacionales. 2) La tarea de obtener y consolidar una presencia nacional e internacional por el equipo de investigación de este proyecto, CEAMOS, se llevó a cabo mediante la realización de diferentes acciones algunas de las cuales describimos a continuación. Se debe tener presente que al inicio de este proyecto este centro era prácticamente desconocido. -Un Memorando de Entendimiento entre el Instituto de Investigaciones Urbanas Canadienses (ICURS) de la Universidad Simon Fraser de Vancouver, Canadá y

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CEAMOS se firmó el 4 de enero de 2010. Este acuerdo fue un ingrediente clave que facilitó la investigación conjunta y el intercambio de estudiantes y académicos durante el proyecto. -Tres encuentros internacionales en Chile y dos reuniones internacionales en Canadá y el Reino Unido, fueron organizados por los miembros del equipo. Tres versiones del Taller de Análisis y Modelamiento de la Seguridad (WAMOS) se organizaron con éxito en Chile, entre 2011 y 2013. Vale la pena mencionar que WAMOS se convirtió en la primer y más reconocido seminario especializado en temas de seguridad desde el punto de vista de los métodos cuantitativos en todos los países latinoamericanos . Podemos decir que los eventos WAMOS, en sus distintas versiones, han contado con la presencia de los mejores y más prestigiados investigadores del mundo en el área. Estos eventos se han convertido en un clásico donde se expone investigación de clase mundial no sólo a académicos, sino que también a los responsables de las políticas púbicas tanto a nivel nacional como internacional. Como una consecuencia delnivel de estos eventos WAMOS, los miembros del grupo fueron invitados a organizar importantes eventos internacionales conjuntos, uno en Canadá, en sociedad con el Instituto del Pacífico para las Ciencias Matemáticas (PIMS) y el Instituto de Investigaciones Urbanas Canadienses (ICURS), ambos de Canadá, y otro en sociedad con el Instituto Jill Dando del University College de Londres ( UCL) en Londres. De esta manera CEAMOS se consolidó como un nodo fundamental en la red de investigación de clase mundial en cuestiones de seguridad . A nivel nacional, los miembros del equipo promovieron un conjunto de diferentes acciones con entidades públicas como Gendarmería de Chile, la Policía de Investigaciones (PDI), Carabineros de Chile y de otras instituciones como la Fundación Paz Ciudadana y centros en diferentes Universidades . Entre estas acciones podemos mencionar dos acuerdos de cooperación firmados por CEAMOS uno con Gendarmería de Chile y otro con ACIPOL, la academia de ciencias policiales de Carabineros de Chile. Como un subproducto de estos acuerdos se celebraron varias reuniones conjuntas para detectar temas de investigación de interés mutuo con estas instituciones en las que se propusieron varios problemas de carácter aplicado y de importancia para ellos, algunos de estos problemas se exponen más abajo. Como una consecuencia importante del acuerdo firmado con Carabineros de Chile, CEAMOS y ACIPOL implementaron en 2011 un programa conjunto en Métodos Cuantitativos en Seguridad. Este consistió en una serie de cursos sobre la aplicación de la ingeniería a la modelización del crimen realizado por los miembros de CEAMOS, y de un curso sobre prevención del delito entregado por un miembro del ACIPOL El programa fue dirigido a oficiales de policía y estudiantes avanzados de ingeniería. Esta planificada una nueva serie de cursos para un futuro cercano. A partir de 2012 y en el marco del desarrollo del proyecto, CEAMOS comenzó a organizar un seminario nacional que ahora se llama Brown Bag Seminar. El principal objetivo era invitar a personas nacionales relevantes o miembros de las fuerzas policiales, que hacen investigación y/o aplicación de metodologías y políticas públicas orientadas a reducir o prevenir la delincuencia en Chile. También se invitó a investigadores de diferentes instituciones académicas a presentar sus puntos de vista. En sus origenes este seminario fue de carácter informal, pero con el tiempo se ha transformado en un importante punto de encuentro para gente relacionada con la seguridad. Así personalidades públicas como el diputado Felipe Harboe ( recientemente elegido senador) fue uno de los ponentes en este seminario, y Carolina Tohá, alcalde de la ciudad de Santiago. La opinión sobre temas de seguridad de algunosimportantes investigadores extranjeros que nos visitaron durante el proyecto, así como la de de los principales expositores en los Brown Bag Seminars y la de otras personalidades, se han

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difundido a través de un boletín creado y manejado por CEAMOS y enviado electrónicamente a una audiencia de carácter nacional . Otra acción importante realizada por el equipo fue la de participar en un comité especial de seguridad pública, organizado por el Instituto de Ingenieros de Chile durante 2012 y 2013. Presidente de este comité fue el ex ministro de Obras Públicas y Educación, Sergio Bitar, miembro del Instituto y uno de los líderes políticos del país. Dos miembros del equipo, José Miguel Benavente y Raúl Manasevich participaron activamente en este comité y en la redacción de un documento. Este documento con el estado del arte en materia de seguridad pública en Chile, que propone una serie de acciones para mejorar la seguridad pública en los próximos años está listo para ser distribuido en todo el país . 3) En cuanto al estudio y solución de problemas aplicados en seguridad que requieren métodos cuantitativos avanzados podemos decir que durante el desarrollo del proyecto se propusieron a los miembros del equipo varios problemas de este tipo que requieren modelamiento avanzado y habilidades especiales. Estos fueron propuestos por diferentes instituciones públicas y organismos nacionales e internacionales. A continuación describimos algunos de los más importantes . -Con Carabineros de Chile. Análisis y mejoras en el Centro de llamadas de emergencia de Carabineros de Chile (133). Utilizando resultados recientes de la teoría de colas , se analizaron los respectivos sistemas y se formularon propuestas de cómo lograr un mejor nivel de servicio. Este trabajo dio lugar a una tesis de ingeniería en la Universidad de Chile y dos tesis de grado en la Academia de Ciencias Policiales de Chile que se desarrollaron en forma conjunta. Por otro lado, miembros del equipo están empezando con dos proyectos. Uno de ellos busca desarrollar una metodología de predicción matemática que permita el uso eficiente de los recursos para una detección temprana de la delincuencia en la frontera. El otro proyecto consiste en cuatro líneas de investigación independientes, pero complementarias, para predecir brotes de criminalidad en la ciudad. Cada línea considera el desarrollo e implementación de software con la capacidad suficiente para ser instalado en plataformas actualmente en uso por Carabineros de Chile. -Con la Policía de Investigaciones (PDI). Los miembros del equipo llevaron a cabo con esta institución un proyecto para analizar y rediseñar los procesos internos de la Unidad de Análisis Criminal de la PDI. Consideramos que un impacto importante de nuestro trabajo el que la PDI, sobre la base de nuestro análisis, implementó una nueva estructura de sus unidades responsables del análisis de la delincuencia . -Con Gendarmería de Chile se realizarón proyectosfocalizados en diferentes aspectos de la capacidad de gestión en el sistema penitenciario chileno y desafíos operacionales de la Institución. Se generó una tesis de maestría en la Universidad de Chile . -Proyectos Internacional con el BID. Durante 2013, el equipo de investigación de este proyecto fue invitado a participar en dos proyectos del BID que describimos a continuación. Con Transcrime,Centro Conjunto de Investigación sobre la Delincuencia Transnacional (Università Cattolica di Milano/Università di Trento ). Evaluación del STAD. En 2011, STAD (Sistema Táctico de Análisis Delictual) fue implementado por el gobierno de Chile y Carabineros de Chile. Es un sistema basado principalmente en COMPSTAT , un modelo de policía aplicado durante la década del 1990 por el Departamento de Policía de Nueva York. En mayo de 2013, Bienes Públicos Regionales (BPR) patrocinado por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID)llamó a licitación para evaluar el impacto de los programas de seguridad pública en ocho países de América Latina. El programa chileno STAD, fue uno de ellos. TRANSCRIME invitó a CEAMOS a participar conjuntamente en la licitación, y en agosto de 2013, resultaron el único equipo seleccionado para presentar una propuesta de evaluación para el BID, ver Apéndice 9. Esta propuesta fue presentada

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en septiembre de 2013 y estamos a la espera de la decisión final para comenzar la evaluación. Con el Departamento de Seguridad y Ciencias de la Criminalidad del University College of London. En representación de ese departamento el director Prof. Richard Wortley, invitó en junio de 2013 a algunos miembros del equipo del proyecto a presentar conjuntamente una propuesta al Ministerio del Interior de Uruguay para un curso de capacitación para la policía de ese país. Este curso es parte de un programa más amplio denominado programa de formación de la policía en Uruguay para los años 2014-2015 que es financiado por el gobierno uruguayo y un préstamo del BID y que esta orientado a mejorar la seguridad en ese país. El proyecto fue ganadocon éxito por el equipo formado por Departamento de Seguridad y Ciencias de la Criminalidad del University College of London y CEAMOS de la Universidad de Chile. Ver Apéndice 9, y estamos en el proceso de implementación de este curso de formación para el próximo año. Premios y actividades editoriales. - Fernando Ordóñez y colaboradores recibieron dos (2) importantes premios internacionales de investigación : 2011 Premio Rist y el Premio 2012 Wagner. - Raúl Manasevich se unió al advisory board del Lecture Notes in Redes Sociales de la serie (LNSN) publicado por Springer. También fue nombrado Co-director Honorario del Simposio Internacional sobre Foundations of Open Source Intelligence and Security Informatics, Beijing, China, August 12-13, 2014. IV. HIGHLIGHTS In no more than 3 pages indicate the main outcomes during the entire period. This may be in any of the activities or objectives the project has, either originally planned or unexpected. This should be what you consider the most significant results of the period and those that you want to convey to the reviewers and displayed to the community as well. It may well be that in early phases of the project you may have one single important outcome, that is perfectly fine. There will be no particular considerations from the number of highlights you indicate. Highlight 1. Training of students and young researchers. We consider this activity as one of the fundamental ones during the project. It is worth mention there were no previous research projects and/or groups related with this area in the country. Then for most students and young researchers this was a new enterprise were specific skills need to be developed before starting any research. The students and young researchers, considered as research assistants for the purpose of the project, performed research work done under the guidance of the members of the team and some external partners. A total number of twenty-one (21) research assistants worked in the project during its duration. Their work, in many cases, led to postgraduate theses and theses to an engineering degree. In particular, five (5) theses need it to obtain the degree of Mathematical Engineering or Industrial Engineering were finished with another one (1) near to be finished. On the other hand, six (6) masters theses were finished, with other seven (7) theses that are in progress. Finally there are two (2) PhD theses in progress and near to be finished. We also invite six (6) young researchers to participate in different research lines not leading to a degree. Most of the results obtained during their research have been presented in national and/or international meetings. As a group we push young researchers to present their own and/or combined work in a series of quantitative methods in security workshops organized by the team members. A detailed list of these research assistants, topics they worked on, as well as the academic or professional degree they obtained if applicable, is given in Activities and Outputs sections as well as in Appendices 2 and 3. As a result of this effort we now have expanded the number of researchers involved in this new topic of quantitative methods in security.

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Highlight 2. Research by members of the team. A total of 20 papers were obtained in this project covering the different areas of research proposed originally; 10 of them are published in main journals (ISI level or equivalent and 2 are in press in similar journals, additionally 8 papers are submitted to publication. Detailed information is given in the Outputs section. As already suggested, the project embraces a new research topic, never performed previously in the country. In terms of publication effort, the group invested important amount of time in searching for available and reliable data in order to perform the applied side of the proposed research. Highlight 3.National and International presence. We would like to point out here that one the important aims for the project team, grouped in the Center of Analysis and Modeling of Security, CEAMOS, was to make this group or center well known at the national and the international level. This aim was successfully obtained as it can be deduced from the highlights that follows. Notice that the center was scarcely known at the beginning of the project. Highlight 4. International meetings organized by the team. Three (3) international meetings in Chile and two international meetings - Canada and United Kingdom, were organized by the team members. In Chile, three versions of the Workshop on Analysis and Modeling of Security (WAMOS) between 2011 and 2013, were successfully organized. It is worth mention that WAMOS became the first and most recognized specialized seminar around security issues in all Latin-American countries. As reported in the activities section, among the best and most renowned researchers in the globe attend the seminar during its first three versions. It now has became a tradition were world class research is presented not only to other academics but also to policy makers domestic and internationally. The team members succeeded in attracting to Chile the main researchers from around the world to deliver plenary talks at these meetings. In this form, on one side, the activities and plans of the national team, CEAMOS, were well known by leaders around the world and on the other side the national community, formed mainly by people from the social sciences and law, also learnt the potential of quantitative models in security. As a consequence of these WAMOS meetings members of the group were invited to organize joint major international seminars, one in Canada together with the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences (PIMS) and the Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies (ICURS) both of Canada, and the other one with the Jill Dando Institute at the University College of London (UCL) in London. All very relevant centers of research consolidating CEAMOS as a fundamental node in the world class research network in security issues. For more information about this highlight see following section Activity 3 and Appendix 4. Highlight 5. Important cooperation agreements signed. Two national and one international agreements were signed during the project. Thus on April 19th, 2011 a strategic cooperation agreement between Gendarmerie of Chile and CEAMOS was signed.Also on July 22nd, 2011 another important cooperation agreement between the Police Science Academy of the Chilean Police Force (ACIPOL) and CEAMOS was signed.Both agreements were part of the goals we proposed originally in this project. Additionally, a Memorandum of Understanding between the Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies (ICURS) at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada and CEAMOS was signed on January 4, 2010. More details about the relevance and contents of these agreements are reported in the next section, see Activity 4. Highlight 6. Joint meetings with national security organizations. CEAMOS and Gendarmerie of Chile (GENCHI) organized the first “Research in Quantitative Methods for the Penitentiary System Meeting” on Thursday 3rd, November, 2011. Another event of this type was organized on August 12, 2011 in a joint effort by CEAMOS and the Police Science Academy of Chile. For more information see Activity 3, next section.

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Highlight 7. CEAMOS and ACIPOL joint series of advanced minicourses. In order to perform learning activities and improve the knowledge on security issues to specialized communities, CEAMOS and ACIPOL initiated on October 18th, 2011 a first joint program on Quantitative Methods in Security. These lectures were given by members of CEAMOS and ACIPOL that includes both theoretical and also practical issues resulting from the research activities of the group as well as from the experience of the daily work of ACIPOL. These minicourses also were a fundamental link between practitioners and researchers in exploring new ideas for research and also to grasp the practical issues when implementing solution to real life problems. A new series of lectures are being planned for the period after the completion of the project. See Activity 5. Highlight 8. Committee at the Engineering Institute of Chile. The Engineering Institute of Chile organized a special committee in public security during 2012 and 2013. Chairman of this committee was the former Minister of Pubic Works and Education Sergio Bitar, member of the Institute and one of the country’s political leaders. Two members of the team, Raul Manasevich and Jose Miguel Benavente were invited to participate and had an active involvement in this committee. A document with the state of the art in public security in Chile which also proposes several actions to improve public security will be distributed nationwide shortly. More details are presented in the Activity section. Highlight 9. National Applied Projects. As security became one of the most relevant issue for Chilean citizens during the last decade, CEAMOS has been involved in developing applied projects that require special skill aiming to solving some particular problems raised by agencies from the Chilean security system. Among them, we can mention: with Gendarmerie of Chile a project that focus on different aspects of capacity management in the Chilean prison system and operational challenges in the Chilean Prison Service, specifically inmate transport and personnel scheduling With Chilean Police of Investigations (PDI, civil police)a project to analyze and redesign the internal processes of the “Crime Analysis Unit” was developed. With Carabineros de Chile a project on Analysis and improvement of the Emergency Call Center 133 was developed. The work led to one engineering thesis at the Department of Industrial Engineering at Universidad de Chile and two engineering theses at the Chilean Police Academy. Presently members of the team are beginning some research work in two projects. One of them seeks to develop a mathematical predicting methodology that will allow efficient use of resources for an early detection of cross-border crime. The other project consisting in four independent lines of research, but complementary for predicting outbreaks of criminality in the city. Each line targets the development and implementation of software with the ability to be installed on systems platforms in use by Carabineros de Chile today. These projects were not planned initially as part of the Anillo project but constitute an important contribution to our work applying quantitative methods in security. For more details about these projects see activities 7 and 8 in the next section. Highlight 10. International Applied Projects.During 2013, the research team was invited to participate in two IDB(BID)projects that we describe in what follows.STAD With Transcrime Joint Research Centre on Transnational Crime (Università Cattolica di Milano/Università di Trento).STAD evaluation.In 2011, STAD (Sistema Táctico de Análisis Delictual) was implemented by the Chilean government and Carabineros de Chile. It was a system mainly based on COMPSTAT, a policing model applied during the 1990’s in New York by the NY Police Department. Prior to its launch, Altegrity Security Consulting developed an analysis in order to understand operational protocols, crime conditions, organizational culture, rules, regulations, laws, processes and procedures practiced throughout Chile. From this consulting work, done by experts in crime analysis and financed by IADB and the Ministry of Interior of Chile, STAD policy was implemented. In May 2013,

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the Regional Public Goods (RPG) called for bids to evaluate the impact of Public Security Programs in eight countries of Latin America, sponsored by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). The Chilean program "Sistema Táctico de Análisis Delictual – STAD, Chile" was one of them. The director of TRANSCRIME, Ernesto Savona, invited CEAMOS to jointly apply to that bid and in August 2013 we were the only team selected for presenting an evaluation proposal to IDB, see Appendix 9. This proposal was submitted in September 2013 and we are waiting for a final decisión. With Department of Security and Crime Science of the University College London. Prof. Richard Wortley, Head of Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London in representation of that department invited in June 2013 some members of CEAMOS to jointly submit a proposal to the Ministry of Interior of Uruguay for a Training course in Problem Oriented Policing. This training course is part of a larger program called Police training program for years 2014-2015 funded by the Uruguayan government and a loan from IDB and oriented to improve the security in that country. The project was successfully won by the team formed by theDepartment of Security and Crime Science of the University College London and CEAMOS from the University of Chile. See Appendix 9 and we are at the process of implementing this training course for next year. Highlight 11. Awards and editorial activities.Fernando Ordonez and collaborators received two (2) important International Research Awards: 2011 Rist Prize and the 2012 Wagner Prize. See Activity 1 for more information. Raul Manasevich joined the advisory board for Lecture Notes in Social Networks (LNSN) series published by Springer.See Appendix 9

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V. ACTIVITIES This section should have 5 pages as maximum extension. Indicate the activities performed during the entire period. Separate activities by numbered paragraphs. Each activity should have a headline with its name and 2-3 explanatory lines including if they have been performed and if not indicating why. Activity 1. Research activity of the team members.We describe here the research of each of the team member: José Miguel Benavente, Rolando de la Cruz, Richard Weber, Raul Manasevich, Fernando Ordoñez, Susana Eyheramendy and Julio Aracena during the period March 2010 to August 2013. JOSÉ MIGUEL BENAVENTE During this period I have continued working in two main research lines. On the one hand, with Eduardo Fajnzylber we continue to work on the effects that family structure may have on young offenders. Given the originality of this research line we have performed a detailed literature revision about this subject trying to consider all the dimensions related with this issue. There are studies in the fields of economics and sociology as well as criminology, psychology and education. All this revision has been summarized in a document and now we are working on the data collection. On the other hand, we continue to work with Angela Denis on the effects that the construction and later the operation of new public schools have had on crime reports in New Haven, USA. We have finally collected all necessary data and run the first regressions and find interesting results. We are now working on the final draft together with Professor Seth Zimmerman and Christopher Nielson from Yale University. ROLANDO DE LA CRUZ During the period of the project, my research focused on developing statistics methodology for crime analysis and for classification of longitudinal data that lead to four submitted papers, see submitted papers item next section. I am supervisor of four master students (1 finished and 3 in progress), and one PhD student (in progress). See master theses finalized and in progress next section. Currently, one master student has enrolled in the Statistics PhD program of the PUC-Chile, and her PhD thesis will be related to topics of the project. Additionally, we are working in several topics (with students, research assistants, and colleagues) and the results will be submitted for publication in ISI journals soon. I would like to stress that the results of my research have been presented in several national and international meetings. Finally, I was also involved in an applied project for Gendarmerie of Chile that consists in developing statistical models to the analysis of recidivism, the results are in progress RAUL MANASEVICH During the period of the project my research was dedicated to the study of mathematical models for burglary of houses. We were interested in pattern formation properties and in particular existence and stability of Hot Spots of criminality. Four papers were published in ISI journals of recognized prestige. Our tools came from properties of nonlinear differential equations and nonlinear analysis, in particular bifurcation theory. During this period I was also the director of the project and of CEAMOS. Given the large amount of actions (for example to obtain data for some research of one of the team members) and many contacts with external medias that were necessary for the good implementation of this project, I was forced to spend a rather huge amount of time in these actions. I am conscious that this was due to the fact that we were opening new ways in many fronts simultaneously. RICHARD WEBER During the three years of the Anillo project we developed applied research in the following lines: (i) understanding crime in public places, (ii) cybercrime, (iii) gang-related crime, and (iv) inmate prediction. In line (i) we have developed a crime simulator that emulates the behavior of citizens, policemen, and delinquents. This simulator serves to test various advanced models we have developed, such as e.g. a game-theoretic approach to predict the displacement effect that occurs when assigning policemen to certain hot-spots. A more recent Hidden Markov Model estimates the attractiveness (unobservable variable) certain places have for criminals based on observable variables, such as e.g. reported crime. We will continue this work beyond the Anillo project. Regarding line (ii) we developed a novel hybrid approach combining data mining with game theory to model the situation faced in adversarial classification, such as e.g. phishing identification.

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Line (iii) is based on findings from social network analysis. Here we try to understand, how the relation among gang members can be used to improve policing activities to detect gang-related crime, such as e.g. trafficking. First results have been tested at PDI (Chilean Police of Investigation). Motivated by the particular problem to predict prison population at the Chilean correction system, we developed an approach combining system dynamics and forecasting techniques in a novel way. First results are encouraging and we installed the respective system at Gendarmerieof Chile which is the organization in charge of the Chilean correction system. JULIO ARACENA My research deals with the study of discrete dynamics of the hotspots associated to criminal activity. Specific topics covered are: 1) Study spatiotemporal patterns in the discrete modeling of the crime dynamics,2) Mathematical definition of the hotspots incorporating dynamical information. 3) Theoretical study of the relationship between the architecture of the interaction graph of a finite discrete dynamical system and its attractors. Regarding the first problem, we defined a discrete mathematical model of criminal activity, using a cellular automata with the help of artificial neural networks. This in order to extract spatio-temporal patterns observed in the global component of the dynamics associated to thefts at Santiago during the years 2001 to 2004 and between 2007 and 2010 at Ñuñoa, a district in Santiago. The results led to the master thesis of Bruno Karelovic. On the other hand, we worked on a definition of the hotspots, to incorporate dynamical information, such as the co-occurrence of crimes in different areas or within a given geographical region and for a given time. This work is part of the engineering thesis work of Alejandra Gonzalez in its final stage. Finally, we studied, from a mathematical point of view, the relation between the architecture of the interaction graph of a finite discrete dynamical system, especially Boolean networks, and its attractors. More specifically, we determined the number of stable states (fixed points) and the existence and robustness of limit cycles in Boolean networks. Part of this work is related to the master thesis of Eduardo Palma in progress. SUSANA EYERAMENDY My activity report here is for the period starting on May 2, 2012 when I incorporated to the project as associated researcher and ending on Aug 31, 2013. My research focus has been on two subjects. First, on the development of indices of fear of crime to identify the relevant contributing factors. Second, on the analysis of Twitter messages to extract important information to our society. In the first project, we analyzed the data obtained from the ENUSC survey (Encuesta Nacional Urbana de Seguridad Ciudadana) over the years 2008-2011. Our aim in this project was to develop three different indices of fear based on principal component analysis, clustering and structural equation models, and to find associations between the indices of fear and demographic and type of crimes. Sandra Astete worked on this project for her thesis for the Mathematical Engineering degree. This work was presented at the WAMOS 2013 and also at UCL in July 2013. The second project is about analyzing, through statistics and data mining, the Twitter messages. The aims of this project are several, and include: 1) Identify networks of criminals; 2) Assess whether or not it is possible to predict crime based on the messages; 3) Generate early alerts to social events that prevent the normal functionality in the society. We are at an early stage of this project. Together with the graduate student Nicolás Zalaquett, we have developed software able to continuously extract messages from the platform. We are also implementing software able to do classification. FERNANDO ORDOÑEZ During this project my research has pursued contributions on the development of optimization models and algorithms for three different problems: 1) to determine the best shape of police quadrants used in the Plan Cuadrante de Seguridad Pública (PCSP) methodology, 2) operational challenges in the Chilean Prison Service, specifically inmate transport and personnel scheduling, 3) new security stackelberg games based on the Quantal Response Equilibrium model for irrational followers. 1)There is one completed undergraduate thesis in this line of work. This line of work is in collaboration with professor Vladimir Marianov (PUC, Chile) and will produce an additional Master's thesis and two research articles, in preparation. 2) In collaboration with the Research Department at the Chilean Prison Service. The work done here produced a Master's thesis and has focused on the development of interfaces to facilitate deployment of the optimization solutions created. 3) The work in this line of research, done in collaboration with professor Milind Tambe (USC, USA) has led to three journal articles, an undergraduate thesis and a Master's thesis, and two conference proceedings. By their work Fernando Ordonez and collaborators received two (2) important International Research Awards. Their work on the use of game theory models to deploy security resources in different security applications was the winner of the 2011 Rist Prize and the 2012 Wagner Prize. The Rist Prize is given annually by the Military Operations Research Society to recognize the best use of Operations Research in a military or security problem. The Wagner Prize is given by the CPMS the practice section of INFORMS to recognize excellence in Operations Research Practice.

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Activity 2. Activity of research assistants under guidance of team members. A number of 21 research assistants worked with the research team during the period. Some of the them obtained their master thesis or engineering thesis as product of this guided research. Also many of these works lead to publication in international journals as well as to submitted papers. The name of the research assistants as well as their main lines of research are given in Appendix 2. Activity 3. Workshops and seminars. Here we describe the international and national workshops organized by the team under the Anillo grant. International workshops and seminars. In 2010 the team started to organize a series of international Workshops called Workshop of Analysis and Modelingof Security (WAMOS) with a periodicity of one event a year, in Chile. Today WAMOS has become a node of the world network of seminars about crime modeling and security. Among the keynote speakers were the top researchers in the world on this area such as Paul and Patricia Brantingham, Donald Brown, Richard Wortley, Marcus Felson, among others. The format of the meetings is that of a three-day seminar, with parallel sessions and presenters from all continents. With an attendance rate over 60 researchers, students, policy makers it also has made links with the productive and policymaking sector. To fulfill these goals, special sessions were designed and performed for non-specialist in different relevant places like SOFOFA (entrepreneurs union) and Ministry of Interior. The last meeting (2013) was inagurated by Ministry of Justice Patricia Perez and the UK and Canada ambassadors. The workshops focus is on research in quantitative methods for the analysis and management of law enforcement, crime modeling as well as on descriptive approaches to current practices in crime and security. -Between September 19-21, 2013, the research team grouped in the Center for Analysis and Modeling of Security(CEAMOS)together with the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences (PIMS) and the Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies (ICURS)both of Canada organized a workshop on Hot Topics on Computational Criminology, see http://www.pims.math.ca/scientific-event/120919-phtwcc, at the IRMACS Center of Simon Fraser University. The goal of this workshop was to bring togethermathematicians and engineers form over the world with an interest in working on crime modeling and analysis with researchers directly connected with real-world problems. This workshop was based on computational criminology, an emerging field that takes the growing need for improved ways to use mathematics and computational techniques in understanding crime patterns and in developing methods for predicting and forecasting crime. The workshop had mathematicians and a group of PhD students and Post-Docs interested in the field as the core group with a number of theoretical criminologists working in the field. During July 20 to 26, 2013 (20 to 26th) CEAMOSorganized with the Jill Dando Institute at the University College of London, London a joint meeting. This meeting consisted in a three day short course on Crime Analysis by people from Jill Dando Institute for CEAMOS researchers and a one day seminar where researchers from CEAMOS and Jill DandoInstitute presented their last results. Details of this meeting can be found in Appendix 4. The idea of the course was to learn in a quick way last modern methods and techniques used by Jill Dando Institute in their training teaching to police in the UK. Also one main goal was to get both groups closer together regarding methods and research in order to generate permanent linkages between both institutions. As a by-product of this seminar, agreements to offer seminars, workshops and joint research were signed to be developed both in Chile and in UK. Finally, there are other several events where members of CEAMOS were invited to present their research. Among them the Feria Internacional sobre Seguridad FISEG (2011 and 2013) were Richard Weber, José Miguel Benavente and Fernando Ordoñez has presented their research advances and results. For the 2013 version Raul Manasevich as representing CEAMOS was member of the organizing committee. National workshops and seminars. With the aim of observing the progress of the research and knowing about the new results that the research assistants as well as the more senior members were obtaining during the project the team organized a series of seminars meetings called Quantitative Methods in Security. With a periodicity of two meetings a year all members of the team, senior researchers, junior researchers and students, had to present their ongoing work. Each of these one day seminar was held at the Engineering School of the University of Chile and was open to public. Thus members of Carabineros, Civil Police and Gendarmeria were among the people attending the expositions and contributing with question, remarks and ideas useful for the research assistants. In particular through these meetings every member of the team had a clear idea about other members work, progress and possibility. -Following the series of workshops Quantitative Methods in Securitydescribed above a special event of this type was organized on August 12, 2011. This was a joint meeting CEAMOS and the Police Science Academy of Chile where several talks by research assistants from CEAMOS and

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ACIPOL were presented. The workshop was very successful, it was held at the facilities of the Police Science Academy of Chile. -CEAMOS and Gendarmerie of Chile (GENCHI) organized the first “Research in Quantitative Methods for the Penitentiary System Meeting” on Thursday 3rd, November, 2011. This activity is a follow up to the agreement signed on April 19, 2011. Another event of this type was organized on August 12, 2011 in a joint effort by CEAMOS and the Police Science Academy of Chile. This activity had the main objective to understand in more detail the research activities undergoing in both institutions in order to produce collaborative work among academics of CEAMOS and Carabineros from ACIPOL. These two activities reflects the interest of relevant players in the Chilean security system to participate with CEAMOS in developing applied research aiming at enhancing public security in the country. -Starting 2012, in the framework of the project CEAMOS started to organizewhat now is called the Brown Bag Seminar. The main objective of this seminar is to invite national relevant people and police membersinvolved in research and/or application of methodologies oriented to reduce or prevent crime in Chile. Researchers from different academic institutions were also invited to present their works. Among the first group,Tamara Agnic former director of the Financial Analysis Unit (UAF), of the Government of Chile,Catalina Mertz Kaiserhead of Paz Ciudadana think tank, Felipe Harboe, former vice ministry of Interior and Carolina Tohá, City of Santiago´s Mayor present their views and experience at a national and a local level. Among the second group, Luis Valenzuela, Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, Lucia Dammert, University of Santiago, Jaime Ortega, University of Chile and Rolando de la Cruz Catholic University also presented the result of their analysis and research and also suggestions about how to reduce crime levels in Chile. -Members of CEAMOS participate first, as part of the scientific committee and secondly, as presenters in the Congress of Research on Violence and Crime. During September in 2011, 2012 and 2013, CEAMOS together with Paz Ciudadana Foundation and other Universities organized this Congress which has over 500 participants and with an important presence in the press. -CEAMOS and Gendarmerie of Chile (GENCHI) organized the first Research in Quantitative Methods for the Penitentiary System Encounter held on Thursday 3rd, November, 2011. This activity is within the framework of the agreement signed between these two organizations. The aim was to show advances in the joint work undertaken by GENCHI and CEAMOS. Activity 4. Collaboration agreements signed in the period. Here we report important agreements signed by the group. Agreement signed with Gendarmerie. A strategic cooperation agreement between Gendarmerie of Chile and CEAMOS was signed on April 19th, 2011. The agreement aims to optimize critical processes of Gendarmerie's present operation. It was intended to create joint action lines as well as incorporate scientific modeling in order to optimize the management tactics of Gendarmerie.Among the topics of research under this agreement are: “Forecasting the Number of Prisoners”, “Shift assignment”, “Transportation of Prisoners”, and “Methods for Recidivism.” Agreement signed with Chilean Police Force. A cooperation agreement between the Police Science Academy of the Chilean Police Force (ACIPOL) and CEAMOS was signed on July 22nd, 2011. The agreement aims to establishing a strategic cooperation that enables joint work in different lines. The collaboration takes the form of studies, projects, undergraduate and graduate theses, seminars, and advanced courses. Under this agreement several joint actions have been implemented, some of them are described later in this report. We emphasize that to sign these two agreements was part of the goals we proposed initially in this project. Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Institute on Canadian Urban Research Studies (ICURS). This MoU was signed on January 4th, 2010 and facilitates joint research and exchange of students and academics. Activity 5. Joint series of advanced minicourses. As a first consequence of the agreement signed with the Chilean Police Force, CEAMOS and ACIPOL initiated October 18th, 2011 a first joint program on Quantitative Methods in Security. The program consisted in a series of lectures on application of engineering to crime modeling as well as a course on crime prevention delivered by a member of ACIPOL. The lectures were delivered twice a week by members of CEAMOS and ACIPOL adding a total of 48 hours. The program ended on December 20th, it was addressed to police officers and advanced engineering students. New series of lectures are being planned for the period after the project is ended.

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Activity 6. Committee at the Engineering Institute of Chile. During 2012-2013 the Engineering Institute of Chile, a very prestigious Chilean institution, organized a special committee for the Institute in public security. Chairman of this committee was named the Engineer Sergio Bitar, member of the Institute and one of the political leaders of the country. Several official people responsible for different dimensions of the country’s national security were invited to give their opinions and discuss with the members of the committee. A document with the state of the art in public security in Chile and that proposes several actions to improve public security will be distributed nationwide shortly.Some extracts of that document (in Spanish) are provided in Appendix 9. Activity 7 Study and solution of applied problems in security that require advance quantitative methods.During the development of the project several applied problems requiring advance modeling and skills were proposed to the team members by different public institutions and different agencies. We next describe some of the most important ones. With Carabineros de Chile. Analysis and improvement of actions and decisions at the Emergency Call Center of Carabineros de Chile (133).The emergency number of Chilean Police (133) is called very frequently which causes congestion at the respective call center, long wait times, and in general a service level that can be improved by advanced quantitative models. Using recent results from queueing theory, we analyzed the respective system and proposed ways how a better service level could be reached. This work led to an engineering thesis at the Department of Industrial Engineering at Universidad de Chile and two engineering theses at the Chilean Police Academy which have been developed jointly. Presently members of the team are beginning some research workin two projects. One of them seeks to develop a mathematical predicting methodology that will allow efficient use of resources for an early detection of cross-border crime. The other project consisting in four independent lines of research, but complementary for predicting outbreaks of criminality in the city. Each line targets the development and implementation of software with the ability to be installed on systems platforms in use by Carabineros de Chile today. With Police of Investigations (PDI). Team members performed a project to analyze and redesign the internal processes of the “Crime Analysis Unit” within Chilean Police of Investigations (Policía de Investigaciones, PDI). Applying standard techniques from process engineering we could detect deficiencies in several internal processes and make suggestions for the respective improvements. We consider it a major impact of this project that PDI, based on our analysis, implemented a completely new structure of their units responsible for crime analysis. With Gendarmerie of Chile a project that focus on different aspects of capacity management in the Chilean prison system and operational challenges in the Chilean Prison Service, specifically inmate transport and personnel scheduling was sucessfully developed. One master thesis at the University of Chile was obtained. Activity 8. International IDB (BID) projects. During 2013, the research team was invited to participate in two IDBprojects that we describe in what follows. With Transcrime Joint Research Centre on Transnational Crime (Università Cattolica di Milano/ Università di Trento).STAD evaluation.In 2011, STAD (Sistema Táctico de Análisis Delictual) was implemented by the Chilean government and Carabineros de Chile. It was a system mainly based on COMPSTAT, a policing model applied during the 1990’s in New York by the NY Police Department. Prior to its launch, Altegrity Security Consulting developed an analysis in order to understand operational protocols, crime conditions, organizational culture, rules, regulations, laws, processes and procedures practiced throughout Chile. From this consulting work, done by experts in crime analysis and financed by IADB and the Ministry of Interior of Chile, STAD policy was implemented.In May 2013, the Regional Public Goods (RPG) called for bids to evaluate the impact of Public Security Programs in eight countries of Latin America, sponsored by theInter-American Development Bank (IADB). The Chilean program "Sistema Táctico de Análisis Delictual – STAD, Chile" was one of them. TRANSCRIME invited CEAMOS to jointly apply to that bid. and in August 2013 were the only team selected for presenting an evaluation proposal to IDB, see Appendix 9. This proposal was submitted in September 2013 and we are waiting for a final decisión. With Department of Security and Crime Science of the University College London. Prof. Richard Wortley, Head of Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London in representation of that department invited in June 2013 some members of CEAMOS to jointly submit a proposal to the Ministry of Interior of Uruguay for a Training course in Problem Oriented Policing . This training course is part of a larger program called Police training program for years 2014-2015 funded by the Uruguayan government and a loan from IDB and oriented to improve the security in that country.

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The project was successfully won by the team from Department of Security and Crime Science of the University College London and CEAMOS from the University of Chile. See Appendix 9 and we are at the process of implementing this training course for next year.

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VI. OUTPUTS List the publications resulting from the project period. Include only submitted manuscripts, accepted and in press-published publications at this point. Title, authors, journal or book information, if that is the case, and category – submitted, accepted or in press, published– of each paper. Include letters o email messages confirming reception or acceptance to the printed report. Indicate those international collaborators in the author’s list of each paper or manuscript by underlining their names. Include a digital copy of published papers and papers that have been formally accepted for publication. Do not include printed copies of papers.The digital copy satisfies the requirement. When filling up the table of indicators, consider only the citations for those papers that resulted partially or totally from this project (in other words, that have acknowledged this project). List the theses (undergraduate, master’s and/or PhD’s) resulting from the project. Indicate the title of the thesis, name of candidate, status of the thesis (finished and the yearin which it was finished -F-yyyy- or in process –IP-), degree to be obtained, Institution that provides degree and name of Supervisor. List courses, seminars, conferences and workshops where members of the project took part presenting results-not only as part of an audience-.Title of the presentation, conference or course, name of the person who gave the presentation, conference, etc. In case of diffusion events or others similar, organized by the project indicate the type of event, its title (if applicable), where and when was held and the program if available. PUBLICATIONS

Published journal papers with acknowledgement to this project (CEAMOS authors in boldface)

Aracena,J., Demongeot, J., Fanchon, E., Montalva, M. On the number of update digraphs and its relation with the feedback arc sets and tournaments. Discrete Applied Mathematics 161(2013), 1345-1355. (ISI IF 0,718 / 5 years 0.802) Aracena, J., Demongeot, J., Fanchon, E., Montalva, M. On the number of different dynamics in Boolean networks with deterministic update schedules. Mathematical Biosciences 242 (2013), 188-194. (ISI IF 1.454/ 5 years 1.784) Benavente, J.M.,Contreras D. and Montero R.. “Anti-Crime Programs: An Evaluation of the Comuna Segura”. Estudios de Economía 38-2 (2011), 369-392. (ISI IF 0.150). Cantrell R.S. Cosner C., and Manasevich R. “Global bifurcation of solutions for crime modeling equations”. SIAM J. Math. Anal. 44 (2012), 1340-1358. (ISI FI 1.573/ 5 years 1.837) Manasevich R., Phan Q.H., and Souplet P. “Global existence of solutions for a chemotaxis-type system arising in crime modeling”. European J. Appl. Math. 24 (2013), 273-296. (ISI IF 1.137/ 5 years 1.155 ) Garcia-Huidobro, M.; Manásevich, R.; Mawhin J. “Existence of solutions for a 1-D boundary value problem coming from a model for burglary”. Nonlinear Anal. Real World Appl. 14 (2013), 1939-1946. (ISI FI 2.201/ 5 years 2.151) Pita J., Jain M., Tambe M., Ordóñez F., and Kraus S. Robust solutions to Stackelberg games: Addressing bounded rationality and limited observations in human cognition”, Artificial Intelligence, 174(15)(2010):, 1142-1171(ISI IF 2.194/ 5 years 2.566)

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Ordóñez, F., Tambe M., Jara J. F., Jain M., Kiekintveld C., Tsai J.. "Deployed Security Games for Patrol Planning". In Handbook on Operations Research for Homeland Security, J. W. Herrmann (ed), Springer, 2012. Yang R., Kiekintveld C., Ordóñez, F., Tambe M., John R.. "Improving Resource Allocation Strategies Against Human Adversaries in Security Games: An Extended Study", Artificial Intelligence, vol. 195, (2013) 440-469 (ISI IF 2.194/ 5 years 2.566) Devia, N., Weber, R. (2013): Generating crime data using agent-based simulation. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 42, 26-41. (ISI 1.674/ 5 years 1.986) Accepted and in press publications (CEAMOS authors in boldface) An B., Ordóñez, F.,Tambe M., Shieh E., Yang R., Baldwin C., DiRenzo J., Moretti K., Maule B., Meyer G.. “A Deployed Quantal Response-Based Patrol Planning System for the U.S. Coast Guard,” to appear in Interfaces (accepted August 2013) (ISI IF 0.845/ 5 years 1.016) García-Huidobro M., Manasevich R.,Mawhin J.Solvability of a nonlinear Neumann problem for systems arising from a burglary model. In Press, Applied Mathematical Letters, online since 21 November 2013. (ISI IF 1.501/ 5 years 1.374) Submitted papers Aracena, J., Richard, A., Salinas, L. “Maximum number of fixed points in AND-OR Boolean networks” Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 2013 (submitted). (ISI IF 1.000/ 5 years 1.106) Benavente, J. M., and Turen J.. "Identifying the determinants of crime occurrence and the deterring impact of police: Evidence across Chilean households" submitted to Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency (second round) (ISI IF 2.220) De la Cruz, R., Celis P., and Gómez H. “A general class of probability density functions with positive support and its use in reliability and survival analysis”. Submitted to Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. (ISI IF 1.304, 5 years 1.449). Padilla O., and De la Cruz, R. “A comparison of logistic regression, Cox regression and standard cure rate models in estimating recidivism”. Submitted to Journal of Quantitative Criminology. (ISI IF 1.673) Arribas-Gil, A., De la Cruz, R., Lebarbier, E., and Meza, C. (2013).”Classification of longitudinal data through a semiparametric mixed-effectsmodel based on lasso-type estimators” Biometrics”. (ISI IF 1.412 / 5 years 2.007) De la Cruz, R., Meza, C. and Arribas-Gil A., “A. Bayesian regression analysis of data with random effects covariates from nonlinear longitudinal measurements”. Submitted to Annals of Applied Statistics. (ISI IF 2.237 / 5 years 2.895) Hochbaum D.S., Lyu C., Ordóñez, F. “Security Routing Games with Multi-vehicle Chinese Postman Problem,” Submitted to Networks (Dec 2012). (ISI IF 0.645/ 5 years 0.949) Espejo, G., Weber, R., L´Huillier, G.: “A Game-Theoretical Approach for Crime Prevention in Public Places”. Submitted to Decision Support Systems, 2013. (ISI IF 2.201, 5 years 3.307) Theses (undergraduate, master’s and/or PhD’s) Master Theses Finalized Bruno Karelovic, “Spatio-temporal study of patterns in the discrete modeling of criminal dynamics”, Master of Computer Science, Universidad de Concepción, F-2011. Supervisor: Aracena, Julio. Fabiola Gessel, “Variable Selection Methods with Applications in Crime Analysis”. MSc in Statistics. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, F-2013. Supervisor: De la Cruz, Rolando. Georgi Bórquez Aros, “Formulation of an integer programming model for assigning shifts. Case: Gendarmerie of Chile”, Master of Operations Management, Universidad de Chile, F-2012.Supervisor: Ordóñez, Fernando. Tomas Spencer, “Algorithms for Street Patrolling with Strategic Adversaries”, Master of Operations Management, Universidad de Chile, F-2013.Supervisor: Ordóñez, Fernando.

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María Paz Jofré, “Analysis of Criminal Behavior Using a Logit Model Based on Attributes”, Industrial Civil Engineering degree and Master in Operations Management, Universidad de Chile, F-2011, Supervisor: Weber, Richard. Nelson Devia, “Crime Data generation through Simulation”, Industrial Civil Engineering degree and Master of Operations Management, Universidad de Chile, F-2012.Supervisor: Weber, Richard. Master Theses In Progress Perla Celis, “Flexible Modeling for Analyzing (Un)censored Data”, MSc in Industrial Statistics. Universidad de Antofagasta - IP - Expected January 2014. Supervisors: De la Cruz, Rolandoand Héctor Gómez (Universidad de Antofagasta). Carlos Cayuman, “Exact Estimation Procedures for the Spatial Probit Model for Complex Survey Data”, MSc in Statistics. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - IP - Expected July 2014. Supervisors:De la Cruz, Rolando and Cristian Meza (Universidad de Valparaíso). Claudia Reyes, “Exact Estimation Procedures for the Ordinal Mixed Model”, MSc in Statistics. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile – IP - Expected July 2014. Supervisors: De la Cruz, Rolandoand Cristian Meza (Universidad de Valparaíso). Victor Bucarey, “A Model Based on the Carabineros de Chile PCSP for the Territory Design”, Master of Operations Management and Industrial Civil Engineering degree, Universidad de Chile – IP - Supervisor: Ordóñez, Fernando. Gabriel Espejo, “A Game Theoretical Model for Crime Prevention in Public Streets”, Master of Operations Management, Universidad de Chile – IP- Supervisor: Weber, Richard. Paz Obrecht, “Estimating the Attractiveness of Public Places for Criminal Activities – An Approach based on a Hidden Markov Model”,Master in Operations Management Universidad de Chile – IP -Supervisor: Weber, Richard. Pablo Lemus, “Using the Data Mining Prediction detained without criminal records for the prediction for the penal population in Santiago, Chile”, Master in Operations Management, Universidad de Chile – IP - Supervisor: Weber, Richard. PhD in Progress Oslando Padilla, “Statistical Models for the Analysis of Recidivism Data”, Ph. D. in Statistics, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile – IP - Expected July 2014. Supervisor: De la Cruz, Rolando. Fredy Troncoso, “Pattern identification of criminal groups under a social network approach”, PhD Engineering Systems, Universidad de Chile – IP - Supervisor: Weber, Richard. Undergraduate Theses Finalized Sebastián Reyes R., “An Introductory study of crime modeling equations”, Mathematical Civil Engineer degree, Universidad de Chile, F-2013, Supervisor: Manásevich, Raúl. Sandra Astete, “Fear of crime: modelling and design of an indicator”, Civil Mathematics Engineering, Universidad de Chile, F-2013, Supervisors: Manásevich, Raúl andEyheramendy, Susana. Juan Francisco Jara, “An Assignment Model for Police Resources in Public Space”, Industrial Civil Engineering degree, Universidad de Chile, F-2011.Supervisor: Ordóñez, Fernando. Sandra Bustamante Mosquera, “Methodology for Evaluation of Police Quadrant Plan used for Carabineros de Chile Security Preventive”, Industrial Engineering Degree, Universidad de Chile, F-2011.Supervisor: Ordóñez, Fernando. Diego Gacitúa, “Design of instruments measuring effectiveness in the process of classification and segmentation of internal penal units closed subsystem Gendarmerie of Chile”, Industrial Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, F-2013, Supervisor: Weber, Richard. Undergraduate Theses In Progress Alejandra González A., “Hostpots on crime dynamics”, Mathematical engineering, Universidad de Concepción – IP - Supervisor: Aracena, Julio. COURSES, SEMINARS, CONFERENCES

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Conference Proceedings: R. Yang, C. Kiekintveld, Ordóñez F., M. Tambe, R. John. "Improving Resource Allocation Strategy Against Human Adversaries in Security Games." Proceedings of the IJCAI-2011 conference. Barcelona, Spain, July 16-22, 2011, 458-464. R. Yang, A.X. Jiang, M. Tambe, Ordóñez F. “Scaling-up Security Games with Boundedly Rational Adversaries: A Cutting-plane Approach,” Proceedings of the IJCAI-2013 conference. Beijing, China, August 3-9, 2013, 404-410. Talks in Conference meetings: International Benavente, J. M. and Denis A., "The Effects of Construction of Public Schools on Crime in New Haven". Wamos III. Third Workshop on Analysis and Modelling of Security. January 21-23, 2013, Santiago, Chile. Benavente, J. M., “Schooling and crime what we can learn from a natural experiment”, Joint Workshop on Crime Science CEAMOS University of Chile, Jill Dando Institute University College of London, July 26, 2013, London. De la Cruz, R., Celis P. and Gómez H. “A general class of probability density functions with positive support, with applications in survival analysis”. WAMOS III. Third Workshop on Analysis and Modeling of Security. January 21 to 23, 2013. Santiago, Chile. De la Cruz R., and Meza C.. “A Bayesian Approach for a Spatial Probit Model for Complex Survey Data: An Application with Chilean Crime Survey Data”. 2011Joint Statistical Meetings. July 28 - August 2, 2012. San Diego, USA. De la Cruz R., Celis P. and Gómez H.. “A general class of probability density functions with positive support, with applications in survival analysis”. Hot topics on Computational Criminology. September 19-21, 2012. Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada. Eyheramendy S., “Development of indices of fear to identify the relevant contributing factors”.WAMOS III, Third Workshop on Analysis and Modeling of Security,January 21-23, 2013, Santiago, Chile. Eyheramendy S., “Development of indices of fear to identify the relevant contributing factors”, Joint Workshop on Crime Science CEAMOS University of Chile, Jill Dando Institute University College of London, July 26, 2013, London. Manasevich R., “Quasilinear systems and residential burglary”,Hot topics on Computational Criminology. September 19-21, 2012. Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada An B., Ordóñez F.Tambe M, Yang R., BaldwinC., DiRenzo J., Moretti, K., Maule B., Meyer. G. “A Deployed Quantal Response-Based Patrol Planning System for the U.S. Coast Guard,” INFORMS Annual Meeting 2012- Phoenix, AZ, October 14-17, 2012. Ordóñez F., Yang R, TambeM, John R, Kiekintveld C., “Improving Resource Allocation Strategies Against Human Adversaries in Security Games”, WAMOSII, Second Workshop on Analysis and Modeling of Security,January 19-20, 2012, Santiago, Chile. Spencer T., Ordóñez F., “A heuristic algorithm for a Stackelberg Security Game on a network”, WAMOSII, Second Workshop on Analysis and Modeling of Security, January 19-20, 2012, Santiago, Chile. Bórquez G, Ordóñez F., "A system for efficient shift scheduling in Chile´s Prison Service", WAMOSII, Second Workshop on Analysis and Modeling of Security, January 21-23, 2013, Santiago, Chile. Ordóñez F, “Optimization models for police planning and patrols”, Joint Workshop on Crime Science CEAMOS University of Chile, Jill Dando Institute University College of London, July 26, 2013, London.

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Espejo G, Weber R, “Hot Spot Policing Based In Game Theory”, WAMOSII, Second Workshop on Analysis and Modeling of Security, January 19-20, 2012, Santiago, Chile. Obrecht, P., Weber R., “Predicting Criminal Behavior using Hidden Markov Models: A Tool to develop advanced policing strategies”. WAMOS III. Third Workshop on Analysis and Modeling of Security, January 21-23, 2013, Santiago, Chile. L´Huillier G., Figueroa N., Weber R.: “Phishing detection using adversarial classification and game theory”. Joint Workshop on Crime Science CEAMOS University of Chile, Jill Dando Institute University College of London, July 26, 2013, London. Obrecht, P., Weber, R.: “Estimating the Attractiveness of Public Places for Criminal Activities – An Approach based on a Hidden Markov Model”. BAFI 2014, January 6-8, 2014, Santiago. National (Chile) Aracena J. Karelovic B. Spatio-temporal pattern of discrete crime dynamics. VII National Congress on Violence and Crime, Organized by Paz Ciudadana Foundation, CEAMOS and other Universities. September 13-14, 2011. Santiago, Chile. (In Spanish). Aracena J., Karelovic B. Spatio-temporal pattern of discrete crime dynamics. Third Workshop in Quantitative Methods in Security, Organized by CEAMOS and ACIPOL. August 12, 2011, Santiago, Chile. (In Spanish). Benavente, J.M. and Turen J.. "Identifying the determinants of crime occurrence and the deterring impact of police: Evidence across Chilean households" presented at the Encuentro Nacional de la Sociedad Chilena de Economía (SECH). Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, September 27-28, Viña del Mar, Chile. Padilla, O., De la Cruz, R. “A Bayesian Model to Estimate Recidivism”. Third Workshop in Quantitative Methods in Security, Organized by CEAMOS and ACIPOL. August 12, 2011, Santiago, Chile. Padilla, O., De la Cruz, R. “A Bayesian Model to Estimate Recidivism”. Organized by Paz Ciudadana Foundation, CEAMOS and other Universities. September 13-14, 2011. Santiago, Chile. Padilla, O.,De la Cruz, R. “Recidivism Studies”. First Meeting on Research in Quantitative Methods for the Penitentiary System. Organized by CEAMOS and GENCHI. November 3, 2011, Santiago, Chile. Perla Celis, De la Cruz, R., and Héctor Gómez. “A general class of probability density functions with positive support, with applications in survival analysis. XL Jornadas Nacionales de Estadística”. October, 23-27, 2013, Valparaíso, Chile. Ordóñez F., Bucarey V., “A methodology for the design location of the Preventive Security Quadrant Plan”. Third Workshop in Quantitative Methods in Security, Organized by CEAMOS and ACIPOL. August 12, 2011, Santiago, Chile. Ordóñez F., “Patrolling Strategies for Transport Systems”. Seminars for public and private security FISEG 2013, September 24-25, 2013, Santiago Chile. Espejo, G., Weber, R. “A Police Distribution Model based on Game Theory”. Third Workshop in Quantitative Methods in Security, Organized by CEAMOS and ACIPOL. August 12, 2011, Santiago, Chile. (In Spanish) Devia, N., Weber, R. “Generation of Crime Data via Simulation”. Third Workshop in Quantitative Methods in Security, Organized by CEAMOS and ACIPOL. August 12, 2011, Santiago, Chile. (In Spanish) Jofré, M. P., Weber, R. “Analyzing Criminal Phenomena using logistic regression and spatial attributes”. Third Workshop in Quantitative Methods in Security, Organized by CEAMOS and ACIPOL. August 12, 2011, Santiago, Chile. (In Spanish). Devia, N., Weber, R.: “Crime Data Generation through Simulation”. IX Congreso Chileno de Investigación Operativa, OPTIMA 2011, Octubre 26-29, 2011 Espejo, G., L’Huillier, G., Weber, R. “Hot Spot Policing based on Game Theory”. IX Congreso Chileno de Investigación Operativa, OPTIMA 2011, Octubre 26-29, 2011

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R. Weber, y Reveco, C. “Predicting the Penitentiary Population for Chilean Regions”. First Meeting on Research in Quantitative Methods for the Penitentiary System. Organized by CEAMOS and GENCHI. November 3, 2011, Santiago, Chile. (In Spanish). Troncoso, F., Weber, R.: “Pattern identification of criminal groups under a social network approach”. Optima 2013, Concepción, Chile. Obrecht, P., Weber, R.: “Estimating the Attractiveness of Public Places for Criminal Activities – An Approach based on a Hidden Markov Model”. BAFI 2014, January 6-8, 2014, Santiago.

VII. LESSONS LEARNED The following section can be used in case of available information related to the possible difficulties, inconveniences or similar issues in the management of the project within the host institution, between CONICYT and the host institution, institution and researchers or any other combination of participants and activities involved. The idea is to resolve these issues on behalf of better practices in the current and future handling of these initiatives. Information provided in this section must be concise, stating all variables involved and outcomes. Do not extend further than 2 pages. - It was not possible to obtain space facilities for the big number of research assistants. We asked the authorities of the Faculty many times for such space, without success. -Perhaps the main difficulty we had in this project was with data. In a project like this, data plays an important role, and it did in many of the lines of research we had. Data was not only difficult to obtain for being confidential but sometimes it did not exist at all. This was so particularly at the beginning of the project, say for one and a half year. After that the group was known and the data started to flow, in small quantity first to the point now that we can ask for it without problem. In those places where data did not exist we had to help the institutions to build it. As it easy to see, this worked against research and delayed a lot of our results.

VIII. INDICATORS

The following section is has no further purpose but to organize some of the previous information. Indicators have only statistical reasons to be asked for. If you require or would like to define indicators particular to your activities, results or impact please let us know including them at the end of this table. This program is aware that quantitative indicators do not cover most of the actual impact of your activities and thus they are not evaluated

Discipline Total project budget 450 MM$ Percentage of the project costs contributed by non-governmental sources 0

General

N° of main researchers 4

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N° of associated researchers 3

Gender (%) of the previous categories 85.71% male, 14,28 female

Nº of ISI publications 12 Nº of non- ISI publications 1

Percentage of co-authored publications with researchers not participating in the project 100%

Percentage of co-authored publications between Researchers of this project 0%

Average impact index of journals with ISI 1.3295 Publications resulting from this project 13 Average number of citations per article 4.9 N° of presentations in international congresses 17

Scientific production

N° of presentations in national congresses 16 N° of patents applied 0 N° of patents registered 0 N° of licenses and/or material transfer agreements 0 N° of Spin-offs 5 Percentage of the annual funding of the project received from private companies 0

N° of spin-offs 0

Commercial results or others

N° of applications from results directed to other sectors Than academic (private, public, schools) 5

Nº of undergraduate students 6 Nº of Master’s students 13 Nº of Ph.D. students 2 Nº of postdocs participating in the project 0 N° of undergraduate theses finished 5 N° of graduated theses finished (Master) 6 N° of graduated theses finished (Ph.D.) 0 Percentage of theses co-Supervisored by researchers participant in this project. 100%

Percentage of theses co-Supervisored with researchers external to this project 14%

N° of stays/visits to other centers/institutions by students or researchers of this project 15

Training of young researchers and students

N° of stays/visits from students or researchers of other centers or institutions 15

N° of other projects related or within this/activities with national collaboration 6

N° of other projects related or within this/activities with international collaboration 3

N° of public or private entities (not enterprises) Involved in this project 3 Nº of dissemination/extramural events 20

Dissemination and extramural activities

Nº of times the project appears in mass media 7

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Total Nº of attendants to extramural events 400 Nº of national academics attending 100 Nº of international academics attending 20 Nº of attending representatives from other sectors than academic 200

N° of documents, reports, proceedings resulting from dissemination/extramural events or activities 30

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