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Kentucky 2032 Scenario Project

Introduction

Looking at Kentucky in 1792 compared with today in 2012, it is easy to witness the changes. We

can track a significant amount of evolution in Kentucky’s social, technological, economic, environmental,

and political realms. However, this advance is minute compared to the potential of next 20 years.

Kentucky is at a crossroad. We have the capacity to make major improvements that could lead to an even

more prosperous Commonwealth. We simply need the motivation to strive for excellence and create a

better future, today.

The best way to solve our current problems and prepare for the future is to understand our

weaknesses. Kentucky is struggling to survive in the increasingly global market, failing to provide a

rounded education for our children, and disinterested in affecting change through our ill-motivated

political system. By analyzing our shortcomings and framing them in the systemic view, we can link

trends together and forecast future developments.

After investigation, six groups of these trends encompass the majority of Kentucky’s future. They

range from advancing education through technology, to projecting the future of the agriculture sector, to

detailing the internet’s effect on industry, to tracking the growing and evolving labor force, to

summarizing the coal mining industry’s impact on all aspects of the Commonwealth, and more. These

“mega-clusters” of trends are windows into the next 20 years. If Kentucky can understand these areas, we

can set ourselves up for success. The road to 2032 is a mountain, but by reaching tangible goals, or rest

stops, along the way, Kentucky can make it to the summit.

Mega-Cluster 1: Kentucky Education’s Promising Future

Education & technology are two categories in particular that will have an interesting story to tell

in 2032. Over the years Kentucky’s educational system has grown and evolved. This change will continue

over the next 20 years. Kentucky’s education system will become increasingly vital to the prosperity of

the Commonwealth, as the Kentucky labor force will compete in an increasingly global environment that

demands rising levels of educational attainment. Kentuckians will need a minimum of a high school

diploma to be competitive in the workforce of this new interconnected world.

In fact, based off current data, it’s projected that in 2032 the percentage of Kentucky students

who graduate from high school will increase 16%. There are many explanations for this increased

percentage of graduates. First of all, Kentucky will continue to see a shift in its political culture.

Historically, Kentucky’s traditionalist political culture has perpetuated a disdain for intellectual pursuits

and thereby influenced the value Kentuckians place on their education. “Kentuckians in general do not



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believe in the intrinsic value of education” (Miller 3). Rather, they have supported elitism and

government in the role of “maintainer of status quo” (Miller 3). Kentuckians’ opposition to major

political and social change or any costly change in public policy can also to help explain why there

weren’t major education reforms until the 1990s.

In 2032, there will be a larger shift away from this traditionalist political culture to more of a

moralistic and individualistic culture. Kentucky’s moralistic culture emphasizes the equality and worth of

individuals, importance of human development, and the need for social activism (Miller 4). On the other

hand, Kentucky’s individualistic attitudes reflect the system as a place where individuals “advance their

self-interests through political action (Miller 4). In this view, states cannot develop economically and

financially without a well educated workforce. Individualism has been a driving motivation for graduation

so Kentuckians can further their own self interests and will continue to be so in the future.

Although Kentucky still lags in their number of high school graduates, we have seen progress that

would suggest the percentage of graduates will increase by 2032. Based on the percent of annual change

since 1970, there has been a 1.114% average increase in number of high school graduates each year

(Childress & Howell, Table 112). Assuming this increase will continue and taking into account off years,

the number of high school graduates is projected to increase by at least 16% by 2032, leaving Kentucky

with around a 94% high school graduation rate.



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Figure 1: Kentucky High School Graduates

Data for graph from: National Center for Education Statistics & Chen, Kelly: PBS Report: Graduation

Rates Improve

Many factors and elements will drive this change. Currently, the largest driving force that has

prevented high school graduation is poverty. In the education system, poverty acts as a reinforcing loop.

The more widespread or severe the poverty, the dropout rate increases. In 2007 Kentucky had the sixth

highest rate of child poverty in the nation (Childress, Dunaven, et al 62). These at risk children are

susceptible to falling behind and increasing the achievement gap. “The number of economically

disadvantaged students in Kentucky adversely affects performance on both state test,” which in turn

affects the amount of money returned to schools to improve education in Kentucky (Childress, Dunavent,

et al 59).



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Figure 2

(Childress, Michael, Billie Dunavent, Suzanne King, Mark Schirmer, Michael Smith-Mellow, and

Amy Watts. "Visioning Kentucky's Future." Measures & Milestones 2008: 1-210. Kentucky Long Term

Policy Research Center, 2008.)

In many ways poverty is an amplifying, vicious cycle. For example, if a child comes from a home

below the poverty line, they have greater incentive to drop to work and earn money. Often times, they

have no choice. On the other hand, most children below the poverty line also automatically assume they

cannot afford higher education, or receive financial aid. Therefore, the perception has been that as long as

they can provide for their family, a high school diploma is deemed unnecessary. However, as changes

occur this mentality will also.

When a student doesn’t graduate high school it not only hurts them, it also hurts the economy.

For example, the dropouts from the class of 2008 will cost Kentucky “almost $4.2 billion in lost wages

over their lifetimes” (“Understanding High School..”). According to the “Building a Grad Nation” report

done by John Hopkins University, on average, high school graduates earn $130,000 more over their

lifetimes, compared with peers who drop out of school. “Transforming just one student from a dropout to

a graduate would yield more than $200,000 in higher tax revenue and savings from the government over

the course of a person's’ life” (Layton). The more graduates, the better the state economy.



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Poverty also trickles throughout the education system indirectly. Often times, parents play a role

in whether or not their children graduate. One example of poverty’s reinforcing loop acting through the

parents is in teen pregnancy cases. Research shows when “teenagers have children they are far more

likely than their childless peers to be consigned to a life of poverty” (Childress, Dunavent, et al 19). Birth

rates among teen girls, ages 15-17, has declined sharply since 1993 for Kentucky and will continue that

trend on into 2032. This decreased rate of teen pregnancy will help boost the graduation rate in the future.

Other main areas of reinforcement and amplifying effects of poverty and the achievement gap are

initiated with a child’s early education and child care. “The earliest physical, mental, emotional and social

influences on a child's’ life establish the framework for their lives (Childress, Dunavent, et al p 23).”

Since availability and affordability are two major opponents for working families under the poverty line,

their children often receive lower quality child care from the beginning, starting their child at a

disadvantage. The same is true with early childhood education. The educational achievement gap created

is linked to the drop out rate. Therefore, in order to increase the graduation rate we must start by

providing better child care early on. Kentucky currently offers only limited child care assistance to

families. “Full subsidies are only available for qualifying families who earn less than $900 a month,

which means they live on less than 50 percent of the poverty threshold for a family of four (“Investing In

Kentucky.. ).”

However, as Kentucky moves away from its’ traditionalistic political culture and becomes even

more integrated in the global economy, more people will be forced to receive a high school education and

slowly chip away at these high poverty rates. Some of these changes are already in motion. For example,

the Civil Marshall Plan is one of these initiatives already pushing Kentucky towards this increase with a

national goal to meet the nationwide graduation rate of 90% by 2020 (Chen). Efforts to reach this goal are

focused on closing the achievement gap for advantaged and disadvantaged students at an early age. “The

academic success of disadvantaged children will ultimately determine whether our state’s future remains

one of disproportionate poverty or gives way to rising prosperity (Childress, Dunavent, et al 59).”

Although efforts focus on improving child care, another means of closing the achievement gap is

through programs for prekindergarten at-risk children, federal Head Start Programs, and other poverty

programs. However, there has been a decline in enrollment in such programs since 2004. Researchers

suggests the core reason for this decline is that working parents need to place their children in all-day care

all year long (Childress, Dunavent, et al p. 65). In order for this gap to close and allow for a higher high

school graduation rate, the state must “tailor aid and educational offerings to the needs and schedules of

working families (“Investing in Kentucky..”).” Current efforts such as summer learning programs and the

use of Title 1 funds to fund such programs is a step in the right direction. After these programs help slow

down the summer learning curve we will begin seeing that achievement gap shorten.



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Globalization and Kentucky’s continued integration in the interconnected world will be another

one of these main drivers. As we become even more integrated in the global economy, the playing field

for competition will become even more leveled off. The future of the global economy will require highly

skilled, college educated workers. “Ninety percent of the fastest growing, highest paying jobs already

require some postsecondary education (Childress, Dunavent, et al).” This need for a higher education will

push a larger percentage of the population to continue out their education.

Kentucky will also see a decline in the number of agricultural jobs. Whereas in the past, a major

reason students dropped out of college was to help on the farm, they will now be forced to go into another

line of work. Two major trends have made “family farms nearly a ghost of Kentucky’s past.” These

trends are consolidation of small family-owned farms into large corporate operations and the conversion

of agricultural land to urban uses. “Roughly one third of farms exist today as there were in 1950

(Childress, Dunavent, et al 109).” The decreased number of farms and increased educational need for job

attainment in 2032 leads to the second trend we’ll see emerge in 2032.

By 2032 the number of Kentuckians over age 25 who have a bachelors degree or higher will

increase at least 24%. The main driver behind this increase will be the need for a higher educated work

force. “In an increasingly interconnected and technologically advanced world, Kentucky workers will not

only face growing competition from low-wage, low-skill jobs but also from high skill jobs in 2032

(Childress, Dunavent, et al). More and more jobs will become automated and outsourced. Economists say

that over the next decade, the U.S. workforce will need 22 million college graduates (Layton). According

to a recent study, 80 percent of jobs in Kentucky in 2016 will require at least two years of training past

high school (“Investing in Kentucky...”).

Figure 3

Data from: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Condition of Education." National Center for Education

Statistics



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There was progress in overcoming under education as the number of adults with a four year

degree or higher climbed from 13.6% to 20.2% in 2006 (Childress, Dunavent, et al). Overall, since 2000,

there has been an annual increase in the number of degrees by 62% up to 2000 (“Double the Numbers..”).

According to the Kentucky Council for Postsecondary Education, enrollment from 2009-2010 increased

3.8% (Truman). The Council has also compared methodology advanced by the 2000 U.S. Census

Working paper to estimate that in the year 2020, 32 percent of all working Americans (25 and older) will

have at least a bachelor’s degree or higher (“Double the Numbers..”).

Figure 4

Data from: U.S. Census Bureau, Hoyt, William. "Trends and Comparisons in Higher Education

Economics: How Has Kentucky Fared?" Policy Conference: 2004. Center for Business and Economic

Research, 2004. Web. 15 Apr. 2012.



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Figure 5

Actual and projected undergraduate enrollment in postsecondary institutions

Data from: National Center for Education Statistics

This number was a combination made using data from the Kentucky State Data Center’s

projection that put the working age population at 2.5 million for 2020 (Kentucky State Data..). Accordingto the U.S. Census Bureau, 20.3% of Kentuckians 25 and older had a bachelor degree or higher from

2006-2010. According to the American Community Survey released in February, 20.5 percent of

Kentuckians over age 25 have at least a bachelor’s degree (Minor). Therefore, if these numbers continue

to increase at around the same rate, 44% of Kentuckians 25 and older are projected to have a bachelor’s

degree or higher by 2032.

Another driving force behind the increased number of Kentuckians with a bachelors degree will

be the role virtual classes play. By 2032, the number of students enrolled in virtual classes will increase

by 70%. Online learning is one of the fastest growing trends in educational uses of technology. The

National Center for Education Statistics “estimated that the number of K-12 public school students

enrolling in a technology-based distance education course grew by 65 percent in the 2 years from 2002-

2003 & 2004-2005 (Kentucky Department of Education).” Students who were unable to take classes

because of time or travel conflicts will have access to an education they didn’t before. Whereas, some of

the cost barriers for the majority of students are housing, commuting, losing the current job they hold,



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they can now take virtual classes in their own home without being out those various costs. “This

alternative form of course delivery is a fast-growing trend and has the potential to change and

revolutionize teaching and learning at every level of education (Mills).”

Ambient Insight found that there is already a growing trend in the number of students who are

taking classes outside the classroom. If this number continues to increase at the same rate, soon a majority

of students will take a combination of online and classes in the classroom. This percentage of students

will eventually increase by 70% by 2032.

Figure 6

Data from: Adkins, Sam. “Learning Technology Innovation.” The Virtualization of K-12 and

Higher Education: 2009-2014 Forecast and Analysis. Ambient Insight. 21 Oct. 2009.

A study at California State University reported that students “in a virtual classroom scored 20%

higher than students in a traditional classroom (Jones).” The study included classes at Universities and

Kentucky and concluded that a web-based course improved student retention and performance, at least in

undergraduate mathematics and science courses (Jones).

As the population of Kentucky 2032 becomes more educated, there will also be a 32% increased

use of internet by Kentuckians 65 and older. In 2011 only 42% of adults 65 and older used the Internet

compared to 78% of the overall population.



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Figure 7

Data from: U.S. Census Bureau

In 2032, elderly (Kentuckians 65 and older) will consist of current adults who are 45 and older. In

2011 87% of these adults 30-49 years old used the Internet and 74% of adults 50-64 used the Internet.

Therefore, we can expect at least a 32% increased use by the elderly by 2032.

One major factor that is linked to increased use of internet by the elderly is the use and ownership

of cell phones. The amount of Kentuckians 65 and older who own a cell phone is dramatically less thanthe younger population. This translates to their small percentage of internet usage. Only 9.55% of people

55 and older accessed the internet using a cellular mobile device in 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). On the

other hand, 37.64% of those 35 to 54 years old used a cell phone to access the internet in 2010 (U.S.

Census Bureau). Considering that this younger population will become the group under examination, it’s

evident the use by elderly will increase.

The proximity of public libraries also plays into this number. As the number of public libraries

increases and the proximity to a library increases, there will be increased Internet usage. In 2007 alone

public libraries made 2,956 computers available for public use and trained an estimated 27,782 people touse electronic resources (Childress, Dunavent, et al). According to the Kentucky Department of Libraries

and Archives, public libraries continue to expand investment in electronic materials such as computers,

nearly doubling this expenditure between 2005 and 2007 (Childress, Dunavent, et al).” They will continue

this investment in the future and increase Internet availability, leading to increased use in 2032.



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Home broadband access also reinforced Internet use. In 2008 40% of adults enjoy broadband

access at home, and this number continues to climb at a staggering rate (Childress, Dunavent, et al).

There is also a strong link between educational attainment and Internet usage. Therefore, as

Kentucky accumulates a more educated population, their internet usage rates will increase. In 2011 69%

of high school graduates were Internet users, 89% of those with some college used the Internet, and 94%

of college graduates or higher used the internet (U.S. Census Bureau).

There is also a link between annual household income and Internet usage. As Kentuckians

become more educated, they will attain higher paying jobs. As their annual income increases the

affordability of technology levels off and access becomes greater.

Figure 8

Data from:"Stastical Abstract of the United States." Information and Communications. U.S.

Census Bureau, 2012. Web. 10 Apr. 2012. <www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/12statab/infocomm.pdf>.



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Mega-Trend 2: Kentucky Agriculture’s Looming Future

The Commonwealth of Kentucky 20 years hence will be most affected by the increased

dependence on the Internet. The Commonwealth will also at the same time undergo a decrease in

agriculture jobs across the region. These two contrasting variables are interesting in the sense

that they both seem like unlikely variables to have a large impact on a society. Scanning across

Kentucky’s Bluegrass Region you will find many horse and agriculture farms. Behind the scenes

in the Bluegrass you have a technological apparatus that supersedes the majestic aesthetics that

occupy the “Bluegrass State.” These two do not resemble one another in any fashion, but they

both will inevitably affect the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

Agriculture has been a solid source of income for many generations in Kentucky. Thescope of the agricultural sector in the Commonwealth is very pronounced. Kentucky farms are

transparently placed along highways and communities across the state (Miller, 1994). According

to the following graph the number of farms in Kentucky has decreased by a third since 1950.

This number is only projected to decline further in the future.



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Across the state there has been a marked increase in the size of the average farm in the

Bluegrass. The decreasing amount of farms has consequences for employment in this sector. As

these farms are disappearing, Kentuckians are being forced to pursue jobs in other sectors, often

jobs that require higher education than previously obtained. The agriculture sector of Kentucky’s

economy has seen a gradual decrease in jobs over the past quarter century. From 1997 to 2007

agriculture jobs have decreased by 7% ( Kentucky Agricultural Statistics). Based on the average

decreases in this sector the outlook provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects

agriculture jobs to decrease by 10% in 2032.



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On the other end of the spectrum you have an area that has taken the country by storm

and has manifested quite nicely in the Commonwealth, and that is Internet usage. According to

the following graph, the number of Kentuckians who have accessed the Internet in the last year

reached 70% in 2008. This trend came to no surprise but the graph leaves out many other

variables that are going to be affected by the spiked Internet growth. For example agriculture-

based equipment has been directly affected since the 1960s, the rise in mechanical equipment has

caused many jobs to disappear in that sector because of the advancement in technology.



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The intrinsic characteristics that detail agriculture and technology could are polar

opposites in respect to their applications. Nevertheless, the developing trend in Kentucky for the

future is expecting achievements in these categories which are set to make unprecedented levels.Kentucky has enjoyed the notoriety of having a strong agricultural base, but a continuing trend

has occurred. While the average farm size has doubled, the number of farms has decreased at the

same rate. In 2032 the number of agriculture jobs is expected to decrease by 10%. What is

driving the number of farms to go down and the size of the farms to expand? Efficiency. The

agriculture sector is not immune to outside influences. The main contributor to this effect is the

advancement in technology, this has led to renovations in farming equipment. This has produced

a decline in agriculture jobs, but the good news is that the continuing trend of the decrease in

agriculture jobs and the increased dependence on technological sector oriented jobs has in turn

lent way to an expected decrease in unemployment by 5% in 2032.

By 2032 home internet business is expected to double. What will transpire as the future

unfolds is there will be an economic model that validates the rapid expansion of individual

Internet business. The expected hikes in this area will throw the state and federal government for



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a loop. The dynamics of the culture today is forcing individuals to find other means of

employment, a trend that we will begin to see is that there is less dependence being put on

employers. The future of internet business growth in Kentucky is set to produce above national

averages in income for individual business owners. Kentucky in 2032 will have made an impact

across the country with the amount of internet businesses that are exploiting areas of Kentucky

with their business models. Kentucky will continue to see a continual trend in above national

income for people in the in the internet business just because of the with their recourses the state

has to offer to these small business owners.

By 2032 Kentucky will have shifted from a state that has had continual success in areas

such as coal and in employing manufacturing jobs to a society that has become individualistic in

nature. Where income was once contingent on employers such as Toyota and other well

established institutions like the coal and mining industry, we now will drift to a society that has

taken an entrepreneurialistic approach (UK Policy Research Center). The consensus nationwide



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is that, using the internet has proved to be more practical. Kentucky’s unique environment has

given home internet businesses publicity on a national level. The reason this is the case is

because of the fact that they are able to exploit sections of the state that has been neglected from

economic growth, which now can be reached by means of internet business capitalists.

However, the disappearing of agriculture and manufacturing jobs has still not changed

the core demographic sections of the society. The homogenous structure of Kentucky goes

farther than race, class, or occupation, it goes to the core of the idea that precedes when one say’sthey are a resident of Kentucky. The reason why this is the case is because of the internal system

that drives society to act the way it does in Kentucky. Because of Kentucky’s 1891 constitution

that constrains the legislature in being able implement policies that could directly affect its

citizens, Kentucky’s governmental power is put into the hands of the Governor. Centrifugal

forces are tantamount in regards to this scenario. An underling centrifugal force is that



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Kentucky’s Citizens do not use the referendum (Miller, 1994). The referendum would allow the

people to vote on a particular action carried out by the fiscal court or city government. What does

the lack of citizen involvement in the political process mean for the future of Kentucky? This

means that in order for economic growth and an increase in the quality of life to transpire, the

internal system of Kentucky’s political structure will have to drastically change in order to

achieve those ends.

Until mass reconstruction on the structure of the State Government, Kentucky will have

to contend with these influences that will drive the state to what it will look like in the future.

What is going to be interesting is to see how the state is going to handle the advances in

technology and how they are going to react to the ramifications of the widespread use of such. In

20 years the expected number of students who are taking online classes via the internet is going

to increase by 70%. This has strong implications for areas such as agriculture and higher

education, how the state is going to balance the budget in regards to these developments will be

exciting.

In the next 20 years Kentucky will become a much more cohesive unit in regards to the

amount of people that will have transplanted from smaller communities to larger areas such as

Lexington, Louisville, Bowling Green, and Northern Kentucky (Rice lecture, Spring 12’). Apart

from this, the traditional agriculture segment of the state has and will subside quite substantially.

This is due to the fact that farm owners are relying more on technological means of production

rather than the traditional farm hand. In 2032 there will be a 5% increase in immigrants to the

commonwealth, combining this factor with the fact that a large portion of farm workers are

immigrants today, is still not going to increase the number of agriculture jobs. Agriculture jobs

have slowly diminished over the past half century in Kentucky, this in large part due to the

evolving standards of equality that has become transparent across the country. The emphasis has

shifted on obtaining a workforce that is in tune with current technological advances. Immigrants

transplanted to Kentucky are going to find more technological jobs than agriculture ones at a

disproportionate rate. The trend seems counterintuitive but the factors such as the increase

dependency on internet connection use for communication purposes intertwined with a 70%

increase in online learning programs for higher education will in turn result in this future state.



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With forces such as the expansion of technological dependence and higher levels of

inflow of citizens into regions with larger populations, Kentucky’s business pursuits will have

shifted. Kentucky has many fragmented communities across the state, areas that are far from the

interstate which are virtually non practical for entrepreneurs or business capitalist to pursue

developing. These areas have had difficulties forming cohesive units for growth because of the

inherent geographical design around their community, such as the terrain and the low

development of infrastructure. What has transpired is the system is pushing individuals to areas

that are more conducive for finding employment, which is why we now see a substantial amount

of growth to areas with larger populations. We now see a trend that entails more jobs in these

higher populated regions. This has produced a framework for employment standards across the



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Commonwealth. The inflow of new labor to these regions has in turn built large cohesive units in

the workforce that have created unprecedented levels of economic growth for the state.

Mega-Trend 3: Kentucky Labor’s Growing Future

Job Creation: Job Creation will increase by three percent

This trend is affected by economic influences in the Commonwealth yet it is categorized

as a political trend because the government assists the Commonwealth in the creation of jobs to

spark economic growth. The creation of jobs is needed in order to allow for immigration to

increase and for unemployment to decrease. Without jobs immigrants do not have jobs to bring

them into the Commonwealth and without jobs unemployment will not be able to decrease. Job

creation in Kentucky is on the rise. Just by looking at the fairly unproductive legislative session a

bill regarding the automobile industry was enacted into law, “HB 400 amends the Kentucky Jobs

Retention Act (KJRA) by allowing companies with projects related to automobile and parts

manufacturing to seek economic development incentives regardless of their location in

Kentucky. To qualify, proposed projects must have at least 1,000 full-time employees and an

investment of at least $100 million” (Kentucky Chamber of Commerce). Although this does not

affect the entire Commonwealth, the automobile industry is huge for parts of Kentucky such as

the Toyota plant in Georgetown and the Ford plant in Louisville. When Governor Martha Layne

Collins worked to gain the Toyota plant located in Georgetown a city in Scott County, many jobs

opened up for the citizens in the area and the Commonwealth’s economy gained a great boost

from the money being filtered into the state through these new jobs. If it had not been for the

government the plant would not be in Georgetown therefore it was a political occurrence.

There have also been two other governmental programs/ acts that have encouraged job

creation:

• “Kentucky Enterprise Initiative Act (KEIA)(PDF) For new or expanded service or

technology, manufacturing, or tourism attraction project in Kentucky. KEIA

provides a refund of Kentucky sales and use tax paid by approved companies for

building and construction materials permanently incorporated as an improvement

to real property. It is also available for Kentucky sales and use tax refunds for



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eligible equipment used for research and development and data processing

equipment.

• Direct Loan Program (KEDFA) (PDF) KEDFA encourages economic

development business expansion and job creation by providing business loans to

supplement other financing. The Direct Loan Program provides loans at below-

market interest rates (subject to the availability of state revolving loan funds) for

fixed asset financing for agribusiness, tourism, industrial ventures, or the service

industry. Retail projects are not eligible.” (Kentucky Cabinet for Economic

Development).

In this scenario it is said that job creation will increase by three percent. Looking at figure

23, the job growth projections for the year 2018 is increasing for the Commonwealth of

Kentucky therefore job creation should still increase.

Unemployment is decreasing, slowly but it is decreasing. Therefore in order for it to

decrease jobs are being created. They are just being created at a very slow rate. As technology

increases as it has been more jobs will be created to keep up with this new technology. Looking back in history, life was much more simplistic, the number of jobs from just 100 years ago has

grown exponentially. Therefore jobs will be created over the next twenty years just not at an

exponential rate. Looking at Workforce Kentucky by the Office of Employment and Training,

their projections for just 2018 have job growth increasing by at least 7.5 percent from 2008. This

means that Kentucky should surpass the three percent increase this scenarios trend is referring to



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(Workforce Kentucky). As seen in figure 21 Kentucky’s per capita income is one of the lowest in

the nation.

This is a reflection of the reduction in agriculture jobs and the need for job growth.

Unemployment: By 2032 Kentucky's unemployment rate will decrease by five percent

This Commonwealth along with the Nation has been going through an economic

recession. Therefore jobs had been decreasing due to businesses not having the funds to keep all

of their employees. Now the economy is slowly recovering. In figure 20 and 24 the

unemployment rate is shown before the recession and now in the process of the recovery. Figure

20 shows Kentucky and figure 24 shows the difference between Kentucky and the United States.



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By looking at the United States Department of Labor data table figure 18 unemployment in

Kentucky is decreasing by a tenth of a point every month on average the first few months of

2012. Therefore if it continues at this same rate, it should decrease by twenty-four points yet that

is not plausible. By looking at the up and down of the unemployment rate over extended periods

of time it typically decreases by several percentage points. In order for the current

unemployment to decrease by five percent it would need to decrease by .475 percentage points.

This is a very small decrease. By looking at the typically shifts this is a very attainable and can

be surpassed. The unemployment rate at the farther ends of the state tends to be larger than in the



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areas closer to metropolitan areas. This is due to urbanization. This is explained in figure 22.

Immigration: By 2032 percentage of immigrants to Kentucky will have increased by at least five

percent.



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This is the last trend of the megatrend. When discussing immigration for these purposes,

only legal immigrants are to be considered. Immigration has been increasing in the

Commonwealth for many years. Just from 2009-2010 according to the Federation for American

Immigration Reform the state's immigrant population rose by fifty percent in one year compared

to the Nations over thirty percent increase (Immigration Facts). Due to Kentucky’s large

agriculture related economy, immigrants tend to flock to Kentucky. There are typically jobs that

the educated populous refuse to take therefore keeping an unemployment high, even when

immigrants take those jobs. Yet as those jobs are being taken, other jobs are being created with

the new labor workforce that has entered into the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Therefore the

percentage of immigrants should increase by at least five percent if not much more by 2032.

Across the world there are many civil wars and political unrest that are sending refugees to the

United States. Many of these refugees are from agriculture based countries. This is the trade that

the refugees know so it is a much easier transition to go to a state that is deeply invested in

agriculture. This explains why refugees choose Kentucky to settle in compared to other states in

the United States. Although agriculture jobs are on the decline they are still needed and this helps

the unemployment rate because many times these are jobs that the rest of the populous refuses to

take. As figure 18 shows, the immigrants not only assisting in the reduction of the

unemployment rate but to the economy as well through immigrant owned businesses.



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Mega-Trend 4: Kentucky Coal’s Bittersweet Future

Whether you know someone that straps on a hard hat to go to work or you just flip on the

lights when you walk into a room, everyone in Kentucky is connected to coal. According to the

Kentucky Coal Association, Eastern and Western Kentucky coal fields produce over 100 million

tons of coal a year (6). This massive resource may afford our Commonwealth some of the

cheapest energy costs in the nation, but coal also impacts nearly all aspects of society. Billions of

dollars in profit, millions of dollars in state tax revenue, thousands of jobs, and hundreds of

communities will be impacted by coal’s next 20 years. It is our imperative to analyze the future

of this sleeping giant and be prepared for what lies ahead. Kentucky’s history with coal mining

has been rocky to say the least, but if we can forge a new partnership and understanding, the

future, like our lights, looks bright.

When investigating Kentucky’s coal future a few trends in the data float to the surface.

By observing past influence and development, one can begin to calculate the patterns and flows

of numbers. When these trends and forecasts are melded together, a story appears. Kentucky’s

coal story incorporates three dynamic trends, which come together to help us logically

understand the future. Coal production figures, coal company employment statistics, and the

future plans for Kentucky’s Coal Severance Tax are the major trends that drive this future

scenario. Coal’s impact on Kentucky is inevitable, and by employing proper futuring techniques

and strategies, everyone in the Commonwealth can work to create the tomorrow where everyone

profits.

Trend 1: By 2032, coal production in Eastern Kentucky will decrease by 60%



28

Kentuckians have been mining coal nearly since Kentucky was established. In

Appalachia, coal mining is a tradition and has served the region almost as faithfully as

agriculture. When the railroads first broke through the mountains in the early 1900’s, mining

exploded and eventually powered America through two world wars. However, coal mining also

has had its dark moments. Struggles of unionization and environmental destruction have left a

bad taste in many Kentuckians’ mouths. Nonetheless, if this past century was the golden age of

coal production, the next thirty years will begin its downfall. A handful of smaller trends are all

pointing in one direction: by 2032, coal production in Eastern Kentucky will decrease by 60%.

There is no one single factor spelling the decrease of coal production. Instead, a number

of smaller state and national trends are chipping into coal’s dominance. A Mountain Association

for Community Economic Development (MACED) report states “that decline is driven by

diminishing coal reserves in Central Appalachia, cheaper coal in other regions, a shift away from

coal to natural gas and other energy sources, and regulations that address coal’s health and

environmental impacts” (1). In other words, the cost to mine more coal is rising, while

alternative energy sources are becoming cheaper. Figure 25 tracks Eastern Kentucky’s total coal

production since 1980 and projects that amount into the future, according to these developing

factors. By 2032, MACED forecasts production to be around 20 million tones or 60% less than

current levels. Do to this expectation, this trend is very likely to come true and impact Kentucky

respectively.



29

In addition, Western Kentucky’s production is also tracking along the same values.

Figure 26 portrays both regions are fairly proportional in rate of change. If Eastern Kentucky is

susceptible to these changes in the market, the western fields are projected to decrease, as well.



30

Trend 2: By 2032, coal mining employment will decrease by 30%

Coal mining jobs have been the lifeblood in Appalachia and parts of Western Kentucky for

decades. They helped to stabilize a largely agrarian economy and drove Kentucky into the new

age of technology. Regardless, old stigmas still remain from the years of fighting between coal

companies and unions. Nevertheless, if coal is to continue into the next 20 years, it will be on the

backs of hardworking Kentuckians.

Coal company employment and coal production are very much connected. It makes sense

that the more resources you hope to mine, the more people you will need to hire and vice versa.

Unfortunately, in large part due to trend 1, by 2032, coal mining employment will decrease by



31

30%. According to Figure 27 , production and employment experience a proportional

relationship. Therefore, when production goes down, so will the number of jobs.

Likewise in Figure 28, when data spanning two and a half decades is laid out, the trend

seems to be decreasing. If one were to calculate the average rate of change and factor in the



32

production decreases, a drop of about 30% in 20 years is very likely.

Trend 3: By 2032, the funds generated from the Coal Severance Tax

will decrease by 10%

This last trend is perhaps the most important to Kentucky’s future. It seeks to the forecast

the evolution of Kentucky’s Coal Severance Tax into the next 20 years. However, before one can

appreciate the tax’s future, its history must be revealed.

In 1974, Governor Ford proposed a new tax on coal sales that would directly benefit Kentucky

and coal mining counties. Although coal companies strongly opposed the idea, the tax passed in

the General Assembly and was implemented. The Coal Severance Tax was a straightforward five

percent tax on coal sales; its returns were first mixed into the state budget, but any unplanned

excess money was evenly divided among the coal producing counties. This money could be used



33

for any purpose in the beginning, yet eventually fell into an economic development role (Miller

319). Figure 29 summarizes the exact allotment of the revenue

More recently, the Severance Tax still seeks to support coal mining counties. In fact, the

total amount of revenue given back to local area funds has been increasing since 2001. Figure 30

outlines the increase and organizes it between specific funds and years. Clearly, the fund iscontinually giving a higher percentage back to the counties.



34

The next component of the trend is slightly more complex. The Coal Severance Tax is based on coal sales, so one could assume when coal production drops (as was previously

projected), the tax revenue will drop. However, this is not necessarily the case. Two factors will

keep the tax revenue a float and relevant into the next thirty years. The first is simply the price of

coal is increasing. According to Figure 31, the price of raw coal has been on the rise since

around 2000. This means that companies will have to sell less coal to maintain profit levels and

sustain the tax revenue.



35

The second continuing factor is a proposed idea that Kentucky should adopt. MACED

claims “experts often note that since severance taxes apply to resources that will eventually be

depleted, it is important to consider permanent funds that would allow an ongoing revenue

stream even after the resource is gone. Permanent funds are built by saving a portion of

severance tax revenues each year and investing those dollars so that the principal balance grows

over time” (4). This idea has the potential to sustain the revenue driving local economies, eventhough coal companies and mining less coal. Figure 32 illustrates this proposal. The blue bars

follow the decreased production levels, leading to lower sales, leading to smaller tax revenue.

The white bars chart the exponential growth of invested revenue if handled properly. The green

line follows the forecasted fund. If this plan were put into place, the revenue could potentially

counter the slowing coal production.



36

All these indicators can help project the future of the Coal Severance Tax. It will decline;

there is little doubt. Coal companies cannot hope to maintain sale levels when their production is

down 60%. However, with the two sustaining factors in place (increasing price and a permanent

fund), the revenue could only drop as little as 10%. That small amount would be a monumental

victory for the coal counties. That would ensure them some cushion to fall back on when the coal

is eventually phased out. Simply because coal’s future is sunk, does not mean Kentucky has to

go down with the ship.



37

In the end, what can be said for Kentucky’s coal future? It is facing a drop off in

production with a mirrored decrease in employment. These factors will heavily impact coal

counties economically, socially, and politically. A giant in the region is slowly dying, and the

repercussions will be many and widespread. Eastern and Western Kentucky will have to hang

their economic hat on another peg in the next 20 to 50 years. Education sectors will have to pick

up the slack and turn out even more trained professionals to stem the unemployment. Politicians

who ran with the mighty support of coal companies behind them will be dinosaurs. However,

with proper future planning at least one encouraging program can still offer support to local

economies

The Coal Severance Tax has a vital role to play in these counties in the next 20 years.

The call will be even louder for more economic assistance due to the higher unemployment.

Kentucky has the ability to forecast this coming storm. It is our responsibility to act, and create

safeguards for our Commonwealth’s future. Whether or not you believe coal was a blessing or a

curse, the fact that it affects us all is not up for debate. We must prepare for the lights to off,

today.

Mega-Trend 5: Kentucky Reclaimed Future

Bluegrass pastures clash with barley fields, well-bred bourbons besiege hobo-brewed

moonshine and– while cardinals continue to clash with wildcats– Baptist barbeque contends

Catholic catfish at the State Fair. Sectionalism within the state of Kentucky, in regards to the

vast cultural variance inherent between its numerous geographical and social boundaries, has a

dynamic influence on the politics and deep-rooted ideologies of its citizens (Miller xxiii).

Institutional traditions– the Kentucky Derby, “My Old Kentucky Home,” and Colonel Sanders,

for example– seem to be the only subtle common ground for an eclectic and authentic state

population.

One of the largest of these institutions, Kentucky Coal, affects nearly every household

across the Commonwealth by producing over 92% of the state’s overall electricity (KOEPD 2).

Contrary to similar economic institutions, Coal has slowly eroded the bridge of unity between

Kentuckians with financial ties to the mining industry and the rest of the population due to its

negative effects on the environment, county infrastructures and political climate. So what does

the future hold for the relationship between Kentucky and its most valuable mineral resource?



38

An accurate prediction for the fate of ‘black gold’ must be founded in a thorough understanding

of historical structure and fundamentals, utilize a wide range of public and professional

perceptions to determine socio-political influences, and establish systems and trends to support

consistent themes of analysis.

Since its founding over 200 years ago, Kentucky has remained one of the major actors in

the American coal industry. This fossil fuel has been a staple economic support-beam for

counties in Appalachia and Western Kentucky, where mining is as vital of contributor to their

identity and culture as it is to their wallets. However, with this dependency comes an heightened

fragility to changes in the market for workers and communities (Blackford 5). Whenever the

profit from coal decreases, coal-mine counties suffer job loss and economic turmoil.

Figure 33 illustrates the system of supply and demand in place that place a critical role in

the amount of coal that companies extract, which directly relates to the number of jobs needed

for extraction. The majority of the mountainous regions of Appalachia, where most of

Kentucky’s coal is mined, are poorly suited for farmland. Unlike the crop and livestock

producing counties in Western and Central Kentucky, who can adjust their production type to

follow market trends, Eastern Kentucky counties must rely on their main natural resource for

financial sustenance. The only real variables that the industry can control are the methods for

extraction and utilization. Cleaner, more efficient coal mines and factories are very popular in

the Western United States, but have seen little growth in Kentucky.



39

In terms of employment, the vast amount of jobs in the industry (as with most production

sectors) are at the lower rungs of the industry ladder. These jobs are usually the actual, physical

mining of the mineral and are usually hazardous in nature. Fairly high wages are received by

miners for comparatively low-skill set required. Because workers can be hired right after (or

sometimes even before) high school graduation, this trend accompanies a dramatic drop in higher

education and translates into fewer students attending college and returning to home to coal

areas. This loss, or lack, of intellectual capital can have adverse effects on a community’s

advancement.



40

Given this cultural and economic reinforcement, the majority of the town workforce

becomes dependent on the success of the coal mines, companies, and industry. Therefore, it is

essential for them to promote and support coal energy because any on the publicity on the

negative effects or efficiency of coal could have political or social ramifications. Coal

companies also significantly support the other economic institutions (i.e. supermarkets,

professional businesses, banks, etc.) in coal counties by the immense input of resources back into

the system. In their absence many stores would be forced to close their doors.

Although the coal companies have a statistical– and widely assumed– authority over

county financials, current coal industry jobs actually make up a small percentage of the overall

employment in these areas. According to the widely acclaimed research by the Mountain

Association for Community Economic Development, non-mining employment far outnumbers

mining jobs in the top-five largest Kentucky coal counties (MACED).



41

As seen in Figure 34, the increasing number of unemployed, working age citizens is even

greater than the percentage of coal industry employees (MACED). Previous comments

regarding county reliance on coal companies have been brought to life by this same study. The

fluctuant nature of the coal market, fueled by ever-changing legislation and industrial demand,

has led to increased poverty and welfare dependency. Kentucky Appalachia, as a whole, has

twice the percentage of people below the poverty line when compared to the U.S. average,

evident in Figure 35’s data analysis.

Coal Severance Supplementation

Luckily, however, one political policy has continued to positively affect the economic

infrastructures of coal-producing counties. Introduced in 1972, the Coal Severance Fund wasinstituted as a means of giving back portions of coal revenue tax to the counties which are being

stripped of the finite natural resource and bearing the brunt of environmental, social and

economic costs. The initial aim was to return 50% of the coal taxes back to the counties, but that

goal has yet to be reached due to bureaucratic incompetence. New legislation, however, has



42

been aimed at bring the percentage (as low as 7.6% in 1992) back up to its intended amount

(KTFC).

The future success or demise of coal counties will be greatly contingent on the future

availability and allocations of this coal severance tax. Current predictions state that coal mining

may decrease by as much as 50% by 2035; this obviously would have over-reaching effects

across the board for Kentuckians. However, given current coal investments, the rising cost of

raw coal, and the increasing percentage of coal severance returning to counties via new

legislation, coal severance should only decline by 10%. With this decline comes an increased

need for responsible allocation. Former governor Paul Patton and Speaker of the House Greg

Stumbo have recently advocated for this type of innovation and responsibility. They support

legislation that would plug millions of dollars back into the educational system, improving all-

around public education and lowering tuition rates for Eastern Kentucky universities (Estep).

This would be the most advantageous use of the funds, reversing the negative stigma on

education spawned by the coal industry.

Reclamation Improvements

Another trend that has arisen in Kentucky coal counties and which will continue to play a

major in the future of the coal industry, is the increasing value of reclaimed coal land. The

Abandoned Mine Land Program and Primacy Program bonds, initiatives taken by the state in

response to the federal Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977, have ensured an

improved appreciation of post-mining property (KOEPD 24). By requiring coal companies to

purchase bonds on coal land before mining, regulating the design and environmental impact of

mines, and instituting a mandatory 3-phase reclamation process after mining operations are

complete, the state has made an investment in the future of Kentucky real-estate and county

economics (KCA).



43

In addition to these efforts, and more importantly, new research and technologies arechanging the way we view reclaimed mining land. Recent studies by the University of Kentucky

College of Agriculture’s Department of Forestry have shown that reclaimed land is the optimum

substrate for tree growth and development, particularly species of Oak, Poplar and various

evergreens (Commonwealth). New initiatives are in the making to transform strip-mined land



44

back to its former state of forest vegetation. Not only would this increase the value of the land,

but it would also counteract the harmful CO2 emissions produced by the coal factories and mines.

New technologies, such as tree bombing, will increase in their availability and cost for

mainstream private and public entities. Tree bombing, a tool already being utilized in many

states, will completely transform the process of forestation, decreasing the cost and increasing

the efficiency exponentially. Tree bombs– specially designed cones that hold a seedling, leaf

shroud, soil and biodegradable container in the shape of a spike– are dropped from planes in

formulated patterns at specific altitudes across a designated stretch of land. In effect, this

method of forestation can produce 600 times as many trees per run as one person on the ground

(Brown).The tree “missiles” and designed to bury themselves in the ground at the same depth as

if they had been planted by hand. Within the cone is contained all the fertilizer the plant will

need. The cone itself is made of a new, specialized material that absorbs adequate amounts of

surrounding moisture for watering the developing roots of the trees.



45

In one day, a plane can plant over 900,000 trees; this would, in turn, remove over 21,000

tons of CO2 from the air each year– equivalent to removing 3,600 cars from the road. The

system even utilizes old military planes that would otherwise be scrapped and wasted.

Such trends will spike the demand for these lands and increase the already positive

environmental impacts of reclamation. With surveys showing anywhere from 750,000 to one

million acres of reclaimed land, new technologies such as this would make drastic changes to

Kentucky’s overall economy (Alliance). Markers on Figure 38 label the locations of each

reclaimed surface mine in Appalachia The majority of reclaimed land remains under the

ownership of coal companies. With the development of forested land, this would increase the

net worth of these coal businesses, affording them greater stability during rough patches in the

market. Also, added land value would improve their investments, translate into the ability to

expand mining operations and transfer these investments into technology development (i.e. more

efficient mining, clean coal factories, etc.)

Real-estate statistics show significant variance in the prices of mountain, forest, and crop

acreage. By foresting the reclaimed land, the value of the land would increase from around $400

an acre (mountainous) to upwards of $1,300 an acre for woodlands. Whenever there is an

increase in land value, it almost always translates into positive effects for the overall surrounding

communities (Halich, et. al. 12).



46

Kentucky Fundamentals and Coal Affluence

Currently, the modern development of mining counties in Kentucky has been thwarted by

the rising poverty, historical lack of higher education, and poor economic diversity. Yet, there

are many important positive qualities that Appalachian and Western Kentucky coal communities

possess that will be important in laying a new foundation for the future. Similar to the entire

state, there are abundant natural resources (other than coal) such as mountains, bodies of water,

and well-developed forests that can serve many crucial roles in promoting tourism and resource

utilization. The rich, authentic cultural aspects of each area, in combination with a prestigious

work-ethic and drive among its people, can materialize into successful adaptation and

modernization. Simply put, Kentucky leaders and community members will look to innovation

and connectivity for a way to turn negative impacts of coal into positive long-term rewards.

Over 80% of Kentucky’s original coal (previous to the first mining) has yet to be mined. As

depicted in Figure 40, the amount of mining has risen drastically over time, and has now reach a

period of decline.



47

As discussed in earlier sections, the link to nearly every aspect of this innovation and

connectivity comes in the form of education and its advancement. Increasing the value of

education in the action of politicians and in the minds of citizens will lead to innumerable

positive influences on the social, technological, and economic development of Kentucky. This,

however, has been our weakest area of improvement across our state’s history. Our themes of

moralism and traditionalism put a dampener on our advancement and growth. Moralism fosters

the belief that our actions should be focused around the righteous and good ideals; these actions,

following this instilled ideal, should be centered around the small community leadership and

should stay out of the government if at all possible (Miller xxix). The problem with this mindset

is that, in our modern day world, federal and state government are the only real powers that

people can turn to for policy change. Our unique affinity for “county pride” is also a hindrance to

change in communities, since counties affected the most by coal mining are the ones that are

afraid to make changes that could possibly harm its internal infrastructure.

Traditionalism, or the acceptance of a sort of political aristocracy, will remain another

stalemate for radical change. One of the deep-seeded beliefs in Kentucky articulates that the

elite members of society should be the governing individuals, following a paternalistic pattern

where families pass down the rights of leadership to their offspring and instill in them the ideals

of the culture: small government, value of social relationships in politics, etc. (Miller xxix).

Unfortunately, the elites do not have a familiar connection with the woes of poverty and

decreased education; therefore, they usually offer little assistance to the needs of coal county

citizens.

Future Coal Trend Conclusions

For the purpose of summarizing the connections between various systems and the future

of Kentucky, let us look at an important element of future development: recycling. Numerous

areas of research have linked the development of local recycling programs with an increase of

affluence within the area. A true test for the progress of Kentucky, in terms of allocating funds

and innovating new solutions to old problems, will be whether or not recycling programs are

developed and utilized within coal regions.

A 5% increase in recycling by 2032 is almost inevitable in the eastern and western realms

of the state (Fitzpatrick 5). Any additional increase in this percentage would be a sufficient



48

indicator in the positive advancement of the coal industry. The combination trends described in

this section would create the perfect scenario for opportunity growth in these counties.

Decline in the production of coal will signal an increased demand for appropriate

allocation of Coal Severance Funds. Although these funds will most likely decrease by at least

10%, the successful utilization of the money for expanded education will have remarkable and

lasting benefits. Coal company’s expansion will cause an equally important expansion in

broadband internet development; this will add to the overall connectivity of these regions to

valuable resources. Faster internet will improve the education systems and opportunities,

translating in an increased number of students pursuing higher education at institutions and

online. Higher education greatly increases the size and functionality of the middle class.

Modern development of reclaimed coal property will institutionalize new agricultural

opportunities which, in turn, will bring more money back to the county and diversify its

economy and employment. The increased funding for education, federal and state programs, and

rural development will all culminate in citizen appreciation and knowledge on environmental

issues. Given that the majority of these trends successfully follow their predicted paths,

recycling programs will be developed and universally utilized by the vast majority of

Kentuckians in coal producing counties by the year 2032 (Hill, et. al. 7).

As Donella Meadows states in her book, Thinking in Systems, “Once we see the

relationship between structure and behavior, we can begin to understand how systems work,

what makes them produce poor results and how to shift them into better behavior patterns (1).”

Understanding the people of Kentucky, with all of their unique cultural and political influences,

may be the most difficult aspect in predicting its future. The coal industry has, in many ways,

created systems of economical support for Eastern and Western Kentucky coal communities;

however, the same systems may lead to their consequential failure. For the future to include both

coal production and economic security, Kentucky must turn the tables on old traditions, and

instead, support the education of its people and the advancement of its community.



49

Mega-Trend 6: Kentucky‘s Social Future

In recent years, higher education has been painted as the “savior” of Kentucky. If the

Commonwealth can reach a uniform level of educational attainment, all of the woes of Kentucky will

deteriorate. In order for this hypothesis to be considered in the future of Kentucky, the first thing that

must be looked at is the likelihood that the rates of higher education will increase as time progresses.

There is a consensus among all data when looking at higher education in Kentucky: the

percentage of people pursuing higher education is increasing (see Figure 41). According to the Kentucky

State Data Center, there was a 3.5 percent increase in persons over the age of 25 with a bachelor's degree

or higher between the years of 1990 and 2000. Furthermore, in a study done by National Center for

Higher Education Management Systems it was found that the percentage of adults aged 25 to 64 with

college degrees increased from 24.5 percent to 30.5 percent between the years of 2000 and 2009. Across

Kentucky, there has been a renewed interest in education, resulting in a developing populace (see Figure

42).



50

There are any number of causes for such a large trend, whether due to a social shift, an economic

necessity, or governmental incentives. Regardless of the cause, the people of Kentucky are becoming

rapidly, bringing forth a number of changes. Change does not occur in a vacuum; the significant rise in

education rates will have consequences outside of this area. This is especially significant in the area of

education, since increasing the level of educational attainment in an area is proven to increase the median

income of an area as well as contribute to overall economic growth. As stated in the 2011 Progress

Report on Post Secondary Education, “economic growth is built on educational attainment” (6). In the

same report, it was found that the unemployment rate among those with bachelor's degrees or high was

half that of those with no higher education. With higher education affecting such a wide range of things,

through increased income, a new level of credence is given to the fact that change does not happen in a

vacuum, with one change affecting other areas immensely.

One such area is recycling. In recent years recycling rates have been increasing across the globe.

In the United States, specifically, rates have increased from 28.6 to 33.8 percent, according to the EPA

(5). Environmental responsibility is no longer the scarcely thought about issue that it was a decade ago;

protecting the environment is becoming a priority, as evidenced by the increase in recycling. This trend is

of extreme significance as time progresses. Few things have potential to affect the future of Kentucky

like issues concerning the environment. Decisions made concerning environmental policy have the

potential to be decisions that have repercussions for years to come. An example of this is coal mining.

Due of the efficiency of mountaintop removal mining, it is becoming a major method of mining in

Eastern Kentucky. For better or worse, this is affecting major areas of the landscape in Eastern Kentucky

in ways that are not easily repairable. If this practice were to stop, it would take years for the land to

reach the point it was before mining; however, there is no evidence pointing to this process stopping. The

environment will continue to be harmed through this process, accumulating in damages that will take

increasingly long to repair. Similar repair times plague all issues concerning the environment. Natural

processes are slow and the damage happens quickly. Due to this fact, action must be taken now to begin

to counteract the negative effects.

Regardless of how time progresses between now and 2032, the environment will play a role in

Kentucky 2032; the environment is a constant factor. The widespread realization of this fact is well

demonstrated by increased recycling. Kentucky is beginning to realize the importance of the

environment; or, at the very least, realize the wisdom behind environmentally friendly policies.

Furthermore, when looking at the data, it appears as if recycling rates will continue to increase as

Kentucky progresses towards 2032( see Figures 43 and 44).



51

Within in the past ten years, recycling rates have increased drastically in Kentucky,

growing from 15.5 to 29 percent (see Figure 43). However, it is unlikely that it will continue to grow at

the same rate. In 2000, Kentucky was 13 percentage points behind the national average for recycling

(Hatton 2010). It is likely that the astounding growth in Kentucky was only the national trend coming to

Kentucky late and, therefore, very quickly. Since the gap between Kentucky and the United States as a

whole has grown smaller, it is unlikely that the rapid growth in recycling will continue. However, data

does suggest that growth will continue, at a diminished rate. Kentucky 2032 will have more frequent

recycling that 2012.

In addition to recycling, increased educational attainment has the potential to play a large



52

role in prescription drug abuse. In recent years, prescription drug abuse has been on the rise

(see Figure 45).

Across all areas of controlled substances and all ages of user, there has been a marked increase in

abuse. It seems as if there has been a social shift moving towards acceptance of prescription drug abusewhile viewing those who abuse traditional drugs (cocaine, heroin, etc,) as addicts. There is a disconnect

between the social stigma associated with a cocaine user, for example, and a person who uses adderall to

study focus when they have no medical need to it. This lack of social stigma for prescription drug abuse is

very alarming when looking at the future of Kentucky. While the government ultimately makes the laws

that govern a nation, social norms can often be just as powerful when looking at behavior. Being a social

outcast is oftentimes just as unwanted as being fined or in prison. Due to this, social norms can be

powerful forces, and the lack of a social stigma can go a long way in justifying an action across a

population group. Despite Kentucky being labeled as traditionalist, the data points to Kentucky sharing inthis acceptance as well, given that it is among the leaders in prescription drug abuse (see Figure 47).



53

Furthermore, an increase in educational attainment can go a long way in facilitating prescription

drug abuse as well. One such link comes with increased income. Prescription drugs are usually accessed

through nontraditional means, i.e. not through a street-drug dealer. These drugs are accessed usually

through either a friend or a doctor, with 76% coming from one of these sources, according to a study done

by The Governor’s Prevention Partnership (Privini). These means of acquiring drugs are more tailored to

people with higher income and, as discussed earlier, higher education brings increased income. Those

with the income to access prescription drugs would be unwise to access drugs that are less socially

acceptable. However, this positive relationship between prescription drug abuse and education not shared

across other substance abuse categories. In fact, it is quite the opposite.

When looking at substance abuse in Kentucky, one must consider meth use. Meth use has been

growing in Kentucky in past years, with meth lab seizure increasing 138% from 2007 to 2009, according



54

to a White House study (1). While some of this can be attributed to improved law enforcement methods,

it would be foolishly optimistic to attribute this increase entirely to improved law enforcement. Meth use

is on the rise in Kentucky (see Figure 46).

However, this trend is not likely to continue as Kentucky progresses toward 2032. Part of this

can be attributed to legislation passed in the 2012 session. There was a large focus on meth in the 2012

General Assembly session. While the effectiveness of Frankfort can be debated, it is undeniable that such

a large increase in legislation will result in better enforcement and, ultimately, a reduction in meth use. In

addition to legislation, there seems to be a correlation between meth use and income, specifically in poor

regions. Meth has been labeled as the poor-man’s drug, likely due to its rural roots ands relatively low

cost in relation to the long-lasting effects of the drug (Indiana University, 2010). However, as is the case

with many low-income activities, it is likely that meth will be replaced as income increases. This

correlation, however, has not been studied extensively; accordingly, it is impossible to claim this as likely

when looking at the future of Kentucky.

While the things discussed previously are certainly vital to the history, the most important thing

when looking at the future is children, the people that will be populating the future. The well being of

children must be of utmost concern when considering actions in the present. While there are numerous

things that must be considered when looking at the development of youth, health issues must be

frequently considered. Health is a uniform issue; if children do not have good health habits, they will not

develop into the people that can continue to develop Kentucky in 2032 and beyond. When looking at the

health issues facing youth in Kentucky, the most alarming is childhood obesity. Study after study points



55

to childhood obesity being a plague that is increasing at a nearly unstoppable rate. According to the

National Initiative for Children's Healthcare Quality, 37.1% of children are obese in the Commonwealth

of Kentucky (1). This is an alarming amount, given the known health risks that are associated with

obesity.

Looking toward Kentucky 2032, data is pointing to the amount of childhood obesity steadily

increasing as time progresses (see Figure 48). There is a nearly universal consensus that childhood

obesity has been on the rise steadily since 1960 and will continue to rise. However, there also seems to be

a link between obesity and income/educational attainment. According to an article in the Southern

Medical Journal, there is a high correlation between low socioeconomic status in school children and

obesity. This presents an interesting solution to the obesity problem. If the population of Kentucky can

reach a higher educational attainment level along with the improved median income that comes along

with this, there will be fewer children in low socioeconomic classes and, possibly, fewer obese children.

This is far from a certain trend when looking towards 2032, but it is a possible aid to an issue that must be

addressed.

In the end, it is clear that increasing educational attainment in the Commonwealth must be a

priority as time progresses towards 2032. Few things have the potential to affect such a wide range of life

in Kentucky as higher education, given the link between higher education and income. As policy makers



look toward the future of Kentucky, the first priority must be ensuring an increasing number of

Kentuckians receive a higher education, or the future of Kentucky will be bleak.

Conclusion

It is clear, through the discussion of each mega-trend, that Kentucky is changing. The

Commonwealth is moving away from its traditional roots and moving towards modernization, as made

clear by the increased internet integration into everyday life. The industries that characterize Kentucky,

such as coal and agriculture, are decreasing as the economy moves toward the global mold. Preparations

must be made now to ensure Kentucky does not fall behind.

When looking at the mountain facing Kentucky as the Commonwealth approaches 2032, a few

trends begin to emerge as vital to success. However, among the trends that emerge, the importance of

higher education emerges as the most important driver of change. Pushing Kentucky to reach higher

educational attainment will result in a brighter future for Kentucky; without it, Kentucky will fail to

progress. As policy makers look at the things that need to be addressed in Kentucky currently, they must

place higher education at the top of their priorities, ensuring that the growth of higher education

continues.

Team Green-Scenario Project

Documents

Transcript of Team Green-Scenario Project