Tds prelimconclusions june11

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Tahrir Data Project Preliminary Descriptive Analysis

description

Presentation of preliminary analysis of the Tahrir Data Sets, a collection of empirical data on digital media use by protesters in the Egyptian uprising, gathered following the ouster of Hosni Mubarak. More information available at http://tahrirdata.info.

Transcript of Tds prelimconclusions june11

Page 1: Tds prelimconclusions june11

Tahrir Data Project

Preliminary Descriptive Analysis

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Discursive Context

• Pessimism and Utopianismsince Iran and Moldova

• 2011>Deen Freelon’s 4-part taxonomy

• The Hype and the Blowback

• Still an anecdotal debate

• Still: «Was it a Facebook Revolution?»

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The Tahrir Data Sets

• TDS-a: protester media-use– 1200 interviews between Feb 24 & March 1– In-depth, “superficial” questionnaire

• TDS-b: coordinator media-use– 35 individuals, semi-structured, purposive sample

• TDS-c: Twitter and transnational networks– #jan25 tweets between Jan 21 & Feb 11– 675,715 tweets, 106,000 users, 27 languages

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TDS-a: Protester Sample

• “Hidden population”• Predominantly:

–young, –well educated, –non-politcally active, –wired–men

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Frequencies:media use

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Blogs (123) Twitter (138) Radio (229) Email (285) Facebook (447)

SMS (492) Print (612) Phone (869) TV (978) Live Comm'n (989)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Used in Protests

How much did protesters use media?

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How much did protesters use media?

Blogs (123) Twitter (138) Radio (229) Email (285) Facebook (447)

SMS (492) Print (612) Phone (869) TV (978) Live Comm'n (989)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Use in General Used in Protests

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Email (285)

SMS (492)

Phone (869)

Radio (229)

Print (612)

Blogs (123)

Twitter (138)

TV (978)

Facebook (447)

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

57.5%

16.1%

10.8%

8.1%

5.4%

3.8%

3.0%

1.7%

0.7%

Drops in Medias' General Use to Protest Use

Med

ia (#

med

ia u

sers

)

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Email (285)

SMS (492)

Phone (869)

Radio (229)

Print (612)

Blogs (123)

Twitter (138)

TV (978)

Facebook (447)

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

57.5%

16.1%

10.8%

8.1%

5.4%

3.8%

3.0%

1.7%

0.7%

Med

ia (#

med

ia u

sers

)

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Email (285)

SMS (492)

Phone (869)

Radio (229)

Print (612)

Blogs (123)

Twitter (138)

TV (978)

Facebook (447)

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

57.5%

16.1%

10.8%

8.1%

5.4%

3.8%

3.0%

1.7%

0.7%

Med

ia (#

med

ia u

sers

)

Real Time Media?Synchronous Media?Social Media?Suitability for Protest Activity

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Logical Regressions:Out on first day &

first time protesting

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Protested on Day 1Exp (b) P

Age 1.009 0.27Male 1.295 0.11Education 0.991 0.87Net at Home 1.297 0.21Net on Phone 1.091 0.54Uses Text Gen 1.092 0.56Uses FB Gen 1.443* 0.01Uses TW Gen 1.429* 0.05Uses Blogs Gen 1.197 0.4Uses Email Gen 0.818 0.31Uses Phone Gen 1.22 0.46Uses TV Gen 0.483** 0.01Uses Radio 1.089 0.56Uses Print 1.366* 0.04_cons 0.341* 0.04N 1029ll -654.933* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

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Not 1st ProtestExp (b) P

Age 1.034*** 0Male 1.034 0.84Education 1.03 0.61Net at Home 1.589* 0.03Net on Phone 1.118 0.44Uses Text Gen 1.227 0.19Uses FB Gen 1.349* 0.04Uses TW Gen 1.467* 0.04Uses Blogs Gen 0.961 0.86Uses Email Gen 1.11 0.61Uses Phone Gen 0.673 0.13Uses TV Gen 0.763 0.34Uses Radio 0.723* 0.04Uses Print 1.781*** 0_cons 0.099*** 0N 1029ll -631.21* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

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Frequencies:Media rankings and protester behaviour

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Phone Face To Face Facebook Satellite TV Email Twitter Documentation SMS Radio Print0%

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80%Im

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Used

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Important

Informative

Used

Motivating

Media Arranged by Overall Scores

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al P

ossi

ble

Scor

e

Media Rankings (1)

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Phone (869)

Face

To Fa

ce (989)

Faceb

ook (447)

Satel

lite TV

(978)

Email

(285)

Twitter

(138)

Documen

tation (n

o defined

users)

SMS (

492)

Radio (2

29)

Print (6

12)0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

75%

53%

65%

25%

52%

42%

10%

17%

5%

81%

46%

63%

21%

55%

42%

9%16%

3%

36%

51%

84%

43%

29%33%

7%

37%

8%

58%

43%

81%

20%24%

76%

6%

17%

4%

ImportantInformativeUsedMotivating

Media (# media users)

% o

f top

sco

re p

ossi

ble

from

med

ia u

sers

Media Rankings (2)

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Phone (869)

Face

To Fa

ce (989)

Faceb

ook (447)

Satel

lite TV

(978)

Email

(285)

Twitter

(138)

Documen

tation (n

o defined

users)

SMS (

492)

Radio (2

29)

Print (6

12)0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

75%

53%

65%

25%

52%

42%

10%

17%

5%

81%

46%

63%

21%

55%

42%

9%16%

3%

36%

51%

84%

43%

29%

33%

7%

37%

8%

58%

43%

81%

20%

24%

76%

6%

17%

4%

ImportantInformativeUsedMotivating

% o

f top

sco

re p

ossi

ble

from

med

ia u

sers

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

52%

46%

32%

26%

11%

6%5% 4% 5%

3%

Media Ranking Aggregatessignificance by full sample of respondents

Media (# of media users)

% o

f pos

sibl

e sc

ore

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

52%

46%

32%

26%

11%

6%5% 4% 5%

3%

62%

48%

73%

27%

40%

48%

8%

22%

5%

significance by full sample of respondents

significance by media user respondents

% o

f pos

sibl

e sc

ore

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Key Protest Metrics

Reliability

• Blogs (>tw, live, fb, em)

• Exaggeration for Blogs and TW in content types and motivations

Documentation• Sources:

TV, Live, Phone, FB, Print • Users

FB, live TW, phone, sat

.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

Media (total responses/total media users)

Relay

• Facebook and TV strongest showers

• Both as info types and activities

• The strange showing of live communication

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Implications of TDS-a

Digital distinguish themselves through:• Degreee and character of media use • Behavior of media users• User relationships to media

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TDS-c: Tweeters

1a. 1b.

Power law distributions for tweeters and retweeters.

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TDS-c: Transnational communication flows

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TDS b: Coordinator Strategies

• Traditional media & Hybridity• Strong ties and weak ties• Transnational Information Flows as

–Security–Motivation–Principle

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Preliminary Conclusions

• Digital media are distinct• Digital media vs hybrid media• Context and contingency• We need more sophisticated models

– Utopianism and pessimism do not suffice– Information ecologies– Functional network mappings

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A Facebook Revolution?

Silly Question

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Moving Ahead

• Implications for further research– Grounded research– Local research– Open research – Comparative research

• Objects for further research– Mapping – Relay – Duplication and comparison

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http://tahrirdata.info