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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1DAILY
TRIM Daily
We publish our second report in the ‘Walking the streets’ report today post our
visit to Medan. We came away more positive on property prices outside Jakarta
(APLN and CTRA are proxy for this), overall consumption trend (AISA is our top
pick in consumer sector), and TLKM as it has begun monetizing its property assets.
AT Kearney also announced its study on emerging cities with largest potential
to be global cities: Jakarta comes out on top! Property is a good proxy to play
this theme on Jakarta. APLN also announced positive 1Q marketing sales today.
Automotive: 1Q14 LCGC sales reached 44k units, in-line with expectation. Results
to be announced today: BDMN (expect in-line) and AISA (expect slightly above).
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was up by 5.33 points or 0.11% to 4,870.2 yesterday.
Index movers were mostly driven by Trade Services and Investment (+1.35%),
Construction Property and Real Estate (+0.83%), and Basic Industries (+0.59%).
Total transaction value was Rp6.0tr with regular market transaction Rp5.4tr. IDX
recorded Rp590bn net buy by foreign investors. JCI increased despite negative
sentiment from regional and global markets. However, with continuous pressure
stemming from regional market correction we expect JCI to move downward today
within support and resistance levels of 4839-4902
JCI 4,870.2
STOCK PRICE Rec Details
ASII 7725 BuyIf 7750 break, Buy ASII at level 7775 with potential upside to level 8000
PGAS 5400 BuyAfter broke the resistance level of 5350, PGAS will further increase today, in our view. PGAS’s today trading range are between 5350-5575
GGRM 49400 BuyWe expect GGRM to trade up today in the range of 48750-49700. Buy at level 49400 with target price 49700 (resistance)
GJTL 2030 BuyWith stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a upware movement for GJTL today in the range of 1970-2110
CPIN 4255 BuyWe expect CPIN to further strengthen, with today’s trading range of 4130-4420
BKSL 183 Trading Buy Trading Buy at level 181 and sell at 192
DOID 109 Trading Buy Trading Buy at level 108 and sell at 114
TINS 2080 SellTINS today is expected to continue its weakening trend and trade in 1930-2145 range
WIKA 2265 SellBased on technical analysis, as its Stochastic Ochilator formed a dead cross, we expect WIKA to move downward today within the range of 2200-2350
ADHI 3030 SellADHI formed doji candle and Overbought, we expect a technical correction for ADHI today in the range of 2890-3200
TRIM Highlights
Market View
Trader’s Pick
REKSA DANA TRIMEGAH ASSET MANAGEMENT
NAB Chg %
Trim Kapital 8,219.8 26.3 0.32
Trim Kapital + 3,051.7 10.8 0.36
Trim Syariah SHM 1,534.1 6.2 0.41
Tram Consumption + 1,337.5 5.2 0.39
Trim Komb 2 1,818.6 3.6 0.20
Trim Syariah B 2,179.9 5.5 0.25
Trim Dana Stabil 2,086.5 0.2 0.01
Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,659.8 -0.3 -0.02
Tram PDPT USD 1.1 -0.0 -0.01
Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.00
Tram Strategic Fund 1,072.6 0.8 0.08
Trim Kas 2 1,071.8 0.2 0.02
APRIL 16, 2014
Change : 0.11%
Transaction Volume (m) : 4,816.5
Transaction Value (Rpbn) : 6,049.5
Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 4,827.8
Market P/E (x) : 15.4
Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.0
Price Chg %
Dow Jones 16,262.6 89.3 0.6
Nasdaq 4,034.2 11.5 0.3
Nikkei 13,996.8 86.6 0.6
ST Times 3,246.3 31.5 1.0
FTSE 6,541.6 -42.2 -0.6
Hang Seng 22,671.3 -367.5 -1.6
GLOBAL INDICES
(USD) (Rp) Chg %
TLKM 40.1 11,465.1 -0.72 -1.8
DUAL LISTING (NYSE )
Chg %
USD IDR 11,428 -10.0 -0.1
10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.89 0.0 0.3
10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.6 -0.02 -0.7
Spread (%) 5.26 0.04 1.0
EIDO 27.8 -0.1 -0.3
Foreign YtD (USDmn) 2,739 51.6 1.9
OTHERS
Global WrapIn U.S., the U.S. CPI rose 0.2% MoM in March (vs consensus: +0.1%), following
a 0.1% increase in prior month. On yearly basis, the U.S. CPI rose to 1.5% YoY in
March (vs consensus: 1.4%) from 1.1% in February. In Europe, the German ZEW
survey expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in
advance, fell to 43.2 in April (vs consensus: 45.0) from 46.6 in March.
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com2 DAILY
News of the DayAutomotive: 1Q14 LCGC sales reached 44k units
In 1Q14, LCGC sales reached 43,999 units with the largest
market share of 47% owned by Toyota as Agya sales reached
20,631 units. Daihatsu Ayla sales reached 12,697 units (29%
market share), while Suzuki Wagon R sales reaching 5,888
units (13% market share) and Honda Brio Satya reached
4,783 units (11% market share) in 1Q14. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia
Comment:
Toyota and Daihatsu LCGC sales will help ASII maintain its
market share in automobile (4W) market. However, ASII’s
1Q14 LCGC sales volumes were relatively in-line with our
expectation. Neutral.
AUTO: to expand retail shops
AUTO currently operates 300 aftermarket retail shops
named “Shop & Drive” which provide simple four wheeler
aftermarket services like changing lubricants, battery, etc.
AUTO’s president director, Hamdani Dzulkarnaen stated that
the company will add around 10% or 30 shops this year and
currently exploring the similar shop concept for two-wheeler
market. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
Comment: Neutral.
ADHI: Obtained idA rating for its bonds
Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia and Pefi ndo, both are Indonesian
credit rating agencies; give idA rating with stable outlook to
ADHI’s bonds and Sukuk due to ADHI’s competitive advantage
as SOE contractor and wide opportunity on infrastructure
industry in Indonesia. The bonds are issued in 2012 and
2013. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
Comment
The news is positive for ADHI. We still have a Buy
recommendation on ADHI, is traded at 14PE of 10.8x.
ANTM: Speeds up Halmahera smelter project to this year
PT Aneka Tambang (ANTM) may begin construction of a
ferronickel smelter later this year in East Halmahera, North
Maluku, as the commodity’s global prices are improving.
This speeded process is driven by a recent upward trend in
global nickel prices. The project is set to produce 27,000
tons of ferronickel each year. The fi rm has already secured
USD600mn in syndicated loans from four banks: PT Bank
Mandiri; PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia; Standard Chartered Bank;
and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Ltd. The company
will spend between 25% to 30% of the total investment on
the early stage of this year, apart from the USD75mn it has
used to build supporting infrastructure. The fi rm may spend
another USD200mn on increasing the smelters initial capacity
to 40,000 tons per year. The smelter project is worth USD
1.6bn. Aside from this, Antam is also carrying out expansion
projects in Tayan, Mempawah and Pomalaa. Source: The
Jakarta Post
EXCL: Will propose 30% dividend payout or Rp35.2/sh
cash dividend
EXCL’s management will propose dividend payout ratio (DPR)
of 30% on AGM will be held on 22 Apr. Hence, the ratio is
equal to Rp35.2/sh dividend per share translating into 0.7%
dividend yield. The DPR proposed this year is lower than
previous year of 40% or Rp135/sh. Source: Investor Daily
Comment
EXCL booked 2013 earnings of Rp1.0tr dropped 62.6% YoY
from Rp2.8tr in FY12 due to higher operating expenses and
forex loss. EXCL booked 2013 forex loss of Rp1.0tr jumped
from Rp300bn loss in FY12. Regarding lower earnings and
lower payout ratio, cash dividend to distribute this year is
73% lower than last year’s.
TMPO: Capex set at Rp150bn
TMPO has set capex for this year at Rp150bn, a 58% YoY
of Rp95bn. 70% of capex will be used to complete new
building construction and the remaining to update its printing
machines. The capex will be funded 35% internally and 65%
through bank loans. Net profi t growth is targeted at 100% this
year due to advertisements income from election. Source:
Koran Tempo
Comment:
TMPO currently trades at PE 13 (ttm). Its net income in 2013
decreased by 75% YoY due to 37% decrease in advertising
revenue, a result of slowing economy in 2013 and several
advertisements delayed to 2014.
LRNA: Target Growth for Revenue 50%YoY and Net
Income 20%YoY
Lorena (LRNA) targets its revenue to grow 50%YoY and net
income of 20%YoY from expansion by having new routes
in Jawa, Madura, Bali, and Sumatra. The expansion will be
funded from IPO proceeds. Yesterday, Lorena has sold 150mn
shares (42.86%) to public with proceeds valuing Rp135bn.
Capex 2014 is Rp225bn with Rp135bn of it fi nanced using the
IPO proceeds. According to the company, LRNA might fi nance
the remaining Rp90bn using facilities from banks. This year,
the company will add fl eets of 77 units (+30% increase from
total of 258 units). Source: Investor Daily
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 3DAILY
News of the Day
APLN: Posted Rp1.8tr marketing sales in 1Q14 (+6.4%
YoY)
APLN booked Rp1.8tr marketing sales in 1Q14 (+6.4%
YoY). The newly launched Harco Glodok (commercial tower)
contributed 32.0% of marketing sales, followed by Orchard
Park Batam with contribution of 27.2%, Podomoro City Deli
Medan with 12.7%, Podomoro City Extension with 8.0%,
Borneo Bay Residences with 5.4%, Vimala Hills with 5.0%,
Metro Park Residences with 44.0% and Grand Taruma with
3.8%.
Comment:
The news is positive. APLN’s 1Q14 marketing sales fi gure
surpassed the industry as it grew by 6.4% YoY and accounted
for 28.1% of our FY14 target of Rp6.5tr (vs. our residential
property counter average at 21.9% with -6.2% YoY growth).
Penetration into second tier cities such as Medan and Batam
was benefi cial for APLN to retain its marketing sales as the
Company reported higher than expected take up rates during
the launch. We currently have a Hold recommendation on
APLN with TP of Rp250/share (9.1% potential downside).
MTLA: Acquired 70ha of land in Cibitung
MTLA is set to purchase 70ha of land in Cibitung, West Java
for Rp105bn. The acquired project would be the extension
of its existing project (lower-middle residential project). The
land acquisition will be fully funded by internal cash. The
Company has 440ha of licensed area in Cibitung, in which it
has acquired 300ha so far. The acquisition of the remaining
140ha is expected to be fi nalized within the next two years.
Comment:
Positive, since the news is in-line with the plan. We have a
Buy recommendation on MTLA with TP of Rp480/sh (8.4%
potential upside).
Stock CodePrice 15-
Apr-14Rating
Target Price (Rp)
Upside (%)
PE (x) PBV (x)Discount to RNAV (%)
SMRA 1,120 BUY 1,300 16.1 15.9 1.4 46.5
BSDE 1,585 BUY 1,900 19.9 11.9 2.5 53.0
MDLN 447 BUY 530 18.6 5.0 1.4 47.7
MTLA 443 BUY 480 8.4 10.6 1.8 54.0
ASRI 555 HOLD 600 8.1 7.7 1.7 60.1
APLN 275 HOLD 250 (9.1) 5.9 0.8 57.5
BEST 525 HOLD 600 14.3 7.8 1.6 54.7
SSIA 910 HOLD 720 (20.9) 6.2 1.1 33.1
KIJA 264 HOLD 250 (5.3) 9.3 0.9 64.5
Property Sector 11.1 10.5 1.7 52.3
Emerging cities ranking: Jakarta comes out on top!
In its latest edition of emerging cities ranking (based on
human capital, business activity, information exchange,
cultural experience, and political engagement), AT Kearney
ranks Jakarta number one. Jakarta is moving up quickly in the
area of human capital – particularly in measures of stability
and security, but also in addressing income inequality and
environmental concerns-as well as across several important
innovation indicators.
Best way to play this theme? We suggest property. Our top
picks for residential are BSDE and SMRA, both have Jakarta
residential projects.
Top 20 ‘Cities of the Future’:
1. Jakarta
2. Manila
3. Addis Ababa
4. Sao Paulo
5. New Delhi
6. Rio de Janeiro
7. Bogota
8. Mumbai
9. Nairobi
10. Kuala Lumpur
11. Bangalore
12. Beijing
13. Johannesburg
14. Kolkata
15. Istanbul
16. Cape Town
17. Chennai
18. Tunis
19. Dhaka
20. Caracas
Source: A.T. Kearney
Property comp table
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com4 DAILY
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Statistics
INDONESIA & SECTORS +/- (%) YTD(%)
COMMODITIES +/- (%) YTD(%)
INDICES REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)
KURS REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)
JCI WINNERS (%) JCI LOSERS (%) JCI VOLUME (Lot) JCI FREQ (X)JCI VALUE (Rpmn)
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 5DAILY
World Economic Calendar
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
7-Apr-14 GE Industrial Production SA MoM (%) Feb 0.3 0.4 0.7
GE Industrial Production WDA YoY (%) Feb 4.7 4.8 4.9
8-Apr-14 ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate (%) 8-Apr 7.50 7.50 7.50
US NFIB Small Business Optimism Mar 92.5 93.4 91.4
JN BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (JPY Tn) 8-Apr 270 270 270
9-Apr-14 US Wholesale Inventories MoM (%) Feb 0.5 0.5 0.8
GE Trade Balance (EUR bn) Feb 17.5 16.3 15.0
GE Exports SA MoM (%) Feb -0.5 -1.3 2.2
GE Imports SA MoM (%) Feb 0.1 0.4 4.1
10-Apr-14 US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 5-Apr 320 300 332
CH Trade Balance (USD bn) Mar 1.80 7.71 -22.99
CH Exports YoY (%) Mar 4.9 -6.6 -18.1
CH Imports YoY (%) Mar 3.9 -11.3 10.1
JN Machine Orders MoM (%) Feb -2.6 -8.8 13.4
11-Apr-14 US PPI Final Demand MoM (%) Mar 0.1 0.5 -0.1
US Univ. of Michigan Confi dence Apr P 81.0 82.6 80.0
CH CPI YoY (%) Mar 2.4 2.4 2.0
CH PPI YoY (%) Mar -2.2 -2.3 -2.0
14-Apr-14 ID Local Auto Sales (Unit) Mar -- 113,079 111,881
ID Motorcycle Sales (Unit) Mar -- 725,629 679,086
US Retail Sales Advance MoM (%) Mar 0.9 1.1 0.7
EC Industrial Production SA MoM (%) Feb 0.2 0.2 0.0
15-Apr-14 US Empire Manufacturing Apr 8.00 1.29 5.61
US CPI MoM (%) Mar 0.1 0.2 0.1
US CPI YoY (%) Mar 1.4 1.5 1.1
GE ZEW Survey Expectations Apr 45.0 43.2 46.6
16-Apr-14 US Housing Starts (000's) Mar 968 -- 907
US Building Permits (000's) Mar 1008 -- 1018
US Industrial Production MoM (%) Mar 0.5 -- 0.8
CH GDP YoY (%) 1Q 7.3 -- 7.7
EC CPI MoM (%) Mar -- -- 0.3
EC CPI YoY (%) Mar F -- -- 0.5
JN Industrial Production MoM (%) Feb F -- -- -2.3
17-Apr-14 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Apr 9.5 -- 9.0
US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 12-Apr 315 -- 300
21-Apr-14 JN Trade Balance (JPY bn) Mar -- -- -800.3
JN Exports YoY (%) Mar -- -- 9.8
JN Imports YoY (%) Mar -- -- 9.0
22-Apr-14 US Existing Home Sales (USD mn) Mar -- -- 4.6
US Existing Home Sales MoM Mar -- -- -0.40
EC Consumer Confi dence Apr A -- -- -9.3
23-Apr-14 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Apr P -- -- 55.5
US New Home Sales (000's) Mar -- -- 440
US New Home Sales MoM (%) Mar -- -- -3.30
CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Apr P 48.2 -- 48.0
EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr P -- -- 53.0
GE Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI Apr P -- -- 53.7
24-Apr-14 US Durable Goods Orders (%) Mar 1.0 -- 2.2
GE IFO Business Climate Apr -- -- 110.7
GE IFO Expectations Apr -- -- 106.4
25-Apr-14 US Univ. of Michigan Confi dence Apr F 83.0 -- 82.6
US Markit US Composite PMI Apr P -- -- 55.7
US Markit US Services PMI Apr P -- -- 55.3
JN Natl CPI YoY (%) Mar -- -- 1.5
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com6 DAILY6
RESEARCH TEAM
Sebastian Tobing, CFA
Head of Research & Institutional Sales
Frederick Daniel Tanggela
Equity Analyst
Robby Hafi l
Equity Analyst
(robby.hafi [email protected])
Melvina Wildasari
Equity Analyst
EQUITY CAPITAL MARKET TEAM
JAKARTA
Nathanael Benny Prasetyo
Head of Retail ECM
Ariawan Anwar
Artha Graha, Jakarta
Windra Djulnaily
Pluit, Jakarta
Musji Hartono
Mangga Dua, Jakarta
Ferry Zabur
Kelapa Gading, Jakarta
Very Wijaya
BSD, Jakarta
SUMATRA
Juliana Effendy
Medan, Sumatera Utara
Tantie Rivi Watie
Pekanbaru, Riau
Hari Mulyono Soewandi
Palembang, Sumatra Selatan
Maria Renata
Equity Analyst
Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA
Equity Analyst
Hapiz Sakti Azi
Research Associate
Paula Ruth
Research Associate
EAST INDONESIA
Wiranto Sunyoto
Branch Area Manager
Sonny Muljadi
Surabaya, Jawa Timur
Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti
Denpasar, Bali
Ivan Jaka Perdana
Malang, Jawa Timur
Agus Jatmiko
Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur
Arifi n Pribadi
Ujung Pandang, Sulawesi Selatan
(arifi [email protected])
CENTRAL JAVA
Agus Bambang Suseno
Solo, Jawa Tengah
Andrew Jatmiko
Yogyakarta, Jawa Tengah
Muhammad Ishaq
Semarang, Jawa Tengah
Joshua N.C. Tjeuw
Research Associate
Rovandi
Research Associate
WEST JAVA
Asep Saepudin
Bandung, Jawa Barat
Ariffi anto
Cirebon, Jawa Barat
(ariffi [email protected])
INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Daniel Dwi Seputro
Head of Institutional Equity Sales
Dewi Yusnita
Equity Institutional Sales
Meitawati
Equity Institutional Sales
Fachruly Fiater
Equity Institutional Sales
fachruly.fi [email protected]
Henry Sidarta
Equity Institutional Sales
Raditya Andyono
Equity Institutional Sales
Nancy Pardede
Equity Institutional Sales
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 7DAILY
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