td140411_2

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1DAILY

TRIM Daily

As expected post-disappointing election result for PDIP, market down 3% yesterday

with USD129m net sell, ~18% of foreign net buy in 1-8 April period. We think we

are likely to see more foreign selling today, it is time to Buy on weakness. We

suggest investors buy stocks with nearer-term catalysts such as good 1Q result

(we expect big banks i.e. BBCA, BBRI to post good 1Q, ASII is also likely to post

good 1Q supported by strong CPO price in 1Q and rising LCGC sales volume).

We also highlight MPPAs AGM result yesterday - Rp186 dividend per share (as

expected), implying 6% dvd yield. MLPL will hold AGM today at 2pm (rumor of high

dividend but no con rmation/guidance from company).

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was down by 155.7 points or 3.2% to 4,765.7

yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by Property (-6.47%), Basic Industries

(-5.55%), and Misc. Industries -5.53%). Total transaction value was Rp12.6tr

with regular market transaction Rp11.5tr. IDX recorded Rp1.5tr net sell by foreign

investors.

JCI 4,765.7

STOCK PRICE Rec Details

INCO 3165 BuyWe expect INCO to trade up today in the range of 3100-3230 Buy at level 3100 with target price 3230 (resistance)

TINS 1910 BuyWith stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a upware movement for TINS today in the range of 1865-1990

LSIP 2165 BuyWe expect LSIP to further strengthen, with todays trading range of 2105-2215

UNVR 29550 BuyUNVR remains strong with potential upside in the range of 29050-30125 for today.

GGRM 49200 Spec BuyStochastic Oscilator indicates positive signal of a potential technical rebound for GGRM. Spec Buy at level 49050 with target price 49900 (resistance)

BBTN 1220 Spec Buy

With stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a technical rebound for BBTN today in the range of 1170-1280. Spec Buy at level 1070 with target price 1280 (resistance)

WIKA 2130 Spec BuyBuy at level 2060 with resistance level 2190. If 2190 break, WIKA have a potential upside to level 2190

ASRI 545 Spec BuySpec Buy ASRI at level 500 with target price today at level 610

BSDE 1505 Spec BuySpec Buy BSDE at level 1460 with target price today at level 1590

KLBF 1510 SellKLBF formed a Overbought, we expect a technical correction for KLBF today in the range of 1470-1550

TRIM Highlights

Market View

Traders Pick

REKSA DANA TRIMEGAH ASSET MANAGEMENT

NAB Chg %

Trim Kapital 7,959.8 -368.8 -4.43

Trim Kapital + 2,964.4 -131.0 -4.23

Trim Syariah SHM 1,488.4 -68.2 -4.38

Tram Consumption + 1,302.2 -72.9 -5.30

Trim Komb 2 1,781.0 -58.6 -3.19

Trim Syariah B 2,129.8 -71.1 -3.23

Trim Dana Stabil 2,084.7 0.2 0.01

Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,658.6 0.2 0.01

Tram PDPT USD 1.1 0.0 0.22

Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.00

Tram Strategic Fund 1,071.0 -8.5 -0.78

Trim Kas 2 1,070.7 0.4 0.04

APRIL 11, 2014

Change : -3.16%

Transaction Volume (m) : 7,376.3

Transaction Value (Rpbn) : 12,613.9

Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 4,722.6

Market P/E (x) : 15.0

Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.0

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 16,170.2 -267.0 -1.6

Nasdaq 4,054.1 -129.8 -3.1

Nikkei 14,300.1 0.4 0.0

ST Times 3,203.6 -6.3 -0.2

FTSE 6,642.0 6.4 0.1

Hang Seng 23,187.0 343.8 1.5

GLOBAL INDICES

(USD) (Rp) Chg %

TLKM 40.0 11,346.6 -0.50 -1.2

DUAL LISTING (NYSE )

Chg %

USD IDR 11,358 69.0 0.6

10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.87 0.0 0.5

10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.6 -0.06 -2.0

Spread (%) 5.22 0.09 2.5

EIDO 27.4 -1.0 -3.6

Foreign YtD (USDmn) 2,682 -128.6 -4.6

OTHERS

Global WrapIn U.S., the U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 300,000 in April 5 week (vs consensus:

320,000), following an upwardly revised 332,000 in prior week. In China, the

China trade balance posted a USD 7.71 bn of surplus in March (vs consensus: USD

1.80 bn). The China export unexpectedly fell 6.6% YoY in March (vs consensus:

+4.9% YoY). Meanwhile, the China import fell 11.3% YoY in March (vs consensus:

+3.9% YoY).

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com2 DAILY

News of the DayCement: Domestic cement sales in Mar14 up 8.4% YoY

and +9.8% MoM

Domestic cement sales in Mar14 reached 4.9mn ton up +8.4%

YoY and +9.8% MoM, backed by development of property and

roads. Meanwhile, cement sales in 1Q14 reached 14.0mn

ton up +3.3% YoY (1Q12: 13.6mn ton). In the rst 3M this

year, the highest sales volume growth occurred in Sulawesi

which grew by 10.2% YoY followed by Maluku and Papua

(+9.4% YoY), while cement sales in Java grew by 4.2% YoY,

Kalimantan 4.1% YoY, and Sumatra 1.4% YoY. Source: Bisnis

Indonesia

Comment:

We have an overweight outlook in cement industry this year.

We are targeting sales volume in SMGR to reach 27.7mn ton

(+7.4% YoY), INTP to reach 18.6mn ton (+2.3% YoY), and

SMBR to reach 1.5mn ton (+17.8% YoY). We have a Buy

recommendation on INTP and SMBR and HOLD on SMGR.

Currently, SMGR is traded at 14PE of 16.2x followed by INTP

at 14.9x and SMBR at 12.2x.

MLPT: Readying investment of USD40mn

MLPT (Multipolar Technology) is ready to invest USD40mn or

Rp450bn to build a data center in Cikarang, Bekasi. The facility

will be built on an 8,000 m land and ran by its subsidiary, PT

Graha Teknologi Nusantara. The rst stage, worth Rp150bn

is expected to be operational by 2015 with size of 2,000

m, expanding to 6,000/8000 m by 2016/2017. Capex for

this year is set at Rp244bn, nanced internally (40%) and

bank loans (60%). Revenue this year is targeted at Rp1.67tr,

11% increase YoY. Dividend for FY 2013 amounted to Rp3bn,

5.26% from net pro t. Source: Investor Daily

Comment:

MLPT market cap at 1.8tr and PE 30 (ttm)

BLTZ: Expansion worth USD60mn

BLTZ (Blitz Megaplex) plans to build 30 new cinemas until

2017, a project worth USD60mn. Each cinema will have 4-6

screens and cost USD2mn. Currently BLTZ has 11 cinemas,

and plans to build 3 this year in Bandung, Yogyakarta and

Balikpapan. The project will be funded internally and from IPO

proceeds, which BLTZ managed to raise RP223bn yesterday.

This year revenue is targeted to grow by 30% to Rp425bn.

Source: Investor Daily

Poultry: FMPI forecasts 10% YoY sales growth for

Indonesias poultry industry

Federation of Indonesian Poultry Society (FMPI) expects

Indonesias poultry industry to post 10% YoY sales growth this

year, on the back of higher chicken consumption rate. Sales

of broiler chicken reached 2.2mn tons last year, four times of

beefs sales, according to The Directorate General of Livestock

and Animal Health due to jump in beef prices. Broiler chicken

sales accounted for about 65% of national meet consumption,

hence broiler consumption/capita stood at 9kg last year (vs.

Philippines at 11kg and Thailand at 16kg). Source: Investor

Daily

MPPA: To Distribute Dividend Rp1tr (Rp186 per share)

MPPAs AGM approved to distribute dividend of Rp1tr

(Rp186 per share) yesterday, implying yield of 6.3% (last

price Rp2,955). MPPA expects to grow revenue by 15-20%

(FY2013 10%YoY) to Rp14tr and net income by 7.2% from

Rp445bn to Rp477bn. Capex plan this year is Rp500-600bn

or 4-5% of net sales this year using its internal cash. MPPA

targets to open 52 outlets (23% increase to total outlets up to

2013), which consists of 20 Hypermart, 6 Foodmart, and 26

Boston Health & Beauty outlets. 60% of new outlets would be

in outside Java, especially East Indonesia. The company plans

to open in 6 cities, which are Dumai, Manokwari, Merauke,

Baturaja, Tanjung Pinang, and Tanjung Pandang. 23% of new

outlets would use stand-alone formats. Source: Merdeka.

com, Bisnis Indonesia

Comment:

Our estimates of sales growth of FY2014E 27%YoY is higher

than the company guidance of 15-20%, as we estimates the

company would be able to open 21 Hypermart stores with

SSSG 6%. The Rp447bn net pro t target mentioned in the

paper is 8% higher than our net pro t estimate of Rp410bn.

The difference could be due to our more conservative estimate

of MPPAs other income.


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Statistics

INDONESIA & SECTORS +/- (%) YTD(%)

COMMODITIES +/- (%) YTD(%)

INDICES REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)

KURS REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)

JCI WINNERS (%) JCI LOSERS (%) JCI VOLUME (Lot) JCI FREQ (X)JCI VALUE (Rpmn)

1.088.586

1.278.311


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

3-Apr-14 US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 29-Mar 319 326 310

US Trade Balance (USD bn) Feb -38.5 -42.3 -39.3

US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Mar 53.5 53.1 51.6

CH Non-manufacturing PMI Mar -- 54.5 55.0

CH HSBC China Services PMI Mar -- 51.9 51.0

EC ECB Announces Interest Rates (%) 3-Apr 0.250 0.250 0.250

EC Retail Sales YoY (%) Feb 0.7 0.8 0.8

EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F 52.4 52.2 52.4

EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F 53.2 53.1 53.2

4-Apr-14 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (000' s) Mar 200 192 188

US Unemployment Rate (%) Mar 6.6 6.7 6.7

7-Apr-14 GE Industrial Production SA MoM (%) Feb 0.3 0.4 0.7

GE Industrial Production WDA YoY (%) Feb 4.7 4.8 4.9

8-Apr-14 ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate (%) 8-Apr 7.50 7.50 7.50

US NFIB Small Business Optimism Mar 92.5 93.4 91.4

JN BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (JPY Tn) 8-Apr 270 270 270

9-Apr-14 US Wholesale Inventories MoM (%) Feb 0.5 0.5 0.8

GE Trade Balance (EUR bn) Feb 17.5 16.3 15.0

GE Exports SA MoM (%) Feb -0.5 -1.3 2.2

GE Imports SA MoM (%) Feb 0.1 0.4 4.1

10-Apr-14 US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 5-Apr 320 300 332

CH Trade Balance (USD bn) Mar 1.80 7.71 -22.99

CH Exports YoY (%) Mar 4.9 -6.6 -18.1

CH Imports YoY (%) Mar 3.9 -11.3 10.1

JN Machine Orders MoM (%) Feb -2.6 -8.8 13.4

11-Apr-14 US PPI Final Demand MoM (%) Mar 0.1 -- -0.1

US Univ. of Michigan Con dence Apr P 81.0 -- 80.0

CH CPI YoY (%) Mar 2.4 -- 2.0

CH PPI YoY (%) Mar -2.2 -- -2.0

14-Apr-14 US Retail Sales Advance MoM (%) Mar 0.8 -- 0.3

EC Industrial Production SA MoM (%) Feb -- -- -0.2

15-Apr-14 US Empire Manufacturing Apr 8.0 -- 5.6

US CPI MoM (%) Mar 0.1 -- 0.1

US CPI YoY (%) Mar 1.5 -- 1.1

EC ZEW Survey Expectations Apr -- -- 61.5

16-Apr-14 US Housing Starts (000's) Mar 968 -- 907

US Building Permits (000's) Mar 1008 -- 1018

US Industrial Production MoM (%) Mar 0.5 -- 0.8

CH GDP YoY (%) 1Q 7.3 -- 7.7

EC CPI MoM (%) Mar -- -- 0.3

EC CPI YoY (%) Mar F -- -- 0.5

JN Industrial Production MoM (%) Feb F -- -- -2.3

17-Apr-14 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Apr 9.5 -- 9.0

US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 12-Apr -- -- 300

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 5DAILY5

RESEARCH TEAM

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Frederick Daniel Tanggela

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Robby Ha l

Equity Analyst

(robby.ha [email protected])

Melvina Wildasari

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

EQUITY CAPITAL MARKET TEAM

JAKARTA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Musji Hartono

Mangga Dua, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Jakarta

([email protected])

SUMATRA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

Hari Mulyono Soewandi

Palembang, Sumatra Selatan

([email protected])

Maria Renata

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Hapiz Sakti Azi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Research Associate

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Wiranto Sunyoto

Branch Area Manager

([email protected])

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Agus Jatmiko

Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur

([email protected])

Ari n Pribadi

Ujung Pandang, Sulawesi Selatan

(ari [email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Andrew Jatmiko

Yogyakarta, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Muhammad Ishaq

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

Joshua N.C. Tjeuw

Research Associate

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Arif anto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

(arif [email protected])

INSTITUTIONAL SALES

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

[email protected]

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

[email protected]

Meitawati


[email protected]

Fachruly Fiater


fachruly. [email protected]

Henry Sidarta


[email protected]

Raditya Andyono


[email protected]

Nancy Pardede


[email protected]

DISCLAIMER:This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its af liated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any of cer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in future participate in an offering of the companys equity securities.

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

td140411_2

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