TD Securities Wood Products Forum
Transcript of TD Securities Wood Products Forum
TD Securities Wood Products Forum May 21, 2015
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
2
Notices
Norbord Snapshot
• Leading manufacturer of wood-based panel products
• Largest global producer of Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
– Installed OSB capacity of 8.0 Bsf-3/8” (1) (2)
– Installed panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF) of 8.9 Bsf-3/8” (1) (2)
– Approximately 2,600 employees at 17 plants across the US, Canada and Europe
• Listed on the TSX (“NBD”)
• Report in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS
• LTM Q1-2015 Pro Forma Sales of $1.5 billion (2)
3
Company Overview
North America
Europe
Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
Particleboard
Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF)
Furniture
Europe 20%
Canada 37%
US 43%
8.9 Bsf-3/8” (1)(2)
Panel Capacity by Region
(1) Does not include the 600 MMsf-3/8” Grande Prairie, Alberta Line 2 (“GP2”) expansion project (2) Pro Forma the Ainsworth merger
Global OSB Industry
4
Industry Overview
Industry OSB Capacity (MMsf-3/8”)
0
10
20
30
North America
Europe South America
Asia
Norbord operates in the two significant global OSB producing regions
Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings
Kronospan 39%
KronoSwiss 20%
Egger 12%
Sonae 7%
Smartply 5%
Kalavela 4%
Others 2%
Industry Capacity 8 Bsf-3/8”
North American & European OSB Industries
5
Industry Overview
Louisiana-Pacific 22%
Georgia-Pacific 19%
Weyer- haeuser
11%
Huber 8%
Tolko 8%
Other 7%
Industry Capacity 28 Bsf-3/8”
North American OSB Industry
25%
Source: Company documents and other public filings – installed industry capacity
European OSB Industry
11%
Norbord is a significant player in both key markets
US Housing Recovery is Real
6
Industry Overview
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015F
US
Ho
usi
ng
Star
ts (
mm
)
US Housing Starts Underlying Demand
Favourable long-term OSB industry fundamentals
US Housing Starts and Underlying Demand
1.5 mm Over-Built
21.4 22.8 24.0 24.8 25.9 26.9 28.0 28.6 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 27.1 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
–
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Effective
De
man
d / C
apacity
Cap
acit
y (B
sf-3
/8")
Effective Capacity Mothballed Capacity Effective Demand / Capacity
North American OSB Demand and Capacity
3.7 mm Under-Built
Source: US Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); As of April 2015
Further MIP Ahead Through Identified Merger Synergies
7
Business Strategy
Operational Best
Practices Corporate Overhead
Sales & Logistics
Purchasing Savings
Product Specialization
Single Public Company
$45 Million in Annual Merger Synergies (1)
Achievable over 18-24 months
Ainsworth’s Forming Technology
Operational Standardization
Continuous Press Experience
Order File Optimization
(1) Costs to achieve ~50%
$73
$21 $45
$631
$495
$247
$42
-$60
$0
$107
$45
$188
$287
$90
$139
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM Q1-2015
Synergies
Ainsworth Adjusted EBITDA
Norbord Adjusted EBITDA
Strong Operating Cash Flow Through The Cycle
8
Financial Overview
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
$369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $211
US Housing Starts (000s)
1,956 2,068 1,801 1,355 906 554 587 609 781 925 1,003 1,011
Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)
11-year average: $188 million
(2)
(3)
(1) Pro forma for the Ainsworth merger (2) Includes approximately $45 million of identified annual synergies, achievable over 18 – 24 months (3) Ainsworth EBITDA converted at a period average exchange rate of C$1.13917 / US$
Norbord Sensitivity to North American OSB Price Changes:
+$10/Msf 7/16” = +$58 million(1) Adjusted EBITDA (at full capacity)
Attractive Investment Opportunity
9
Summary
Leverage to unfolding US housing recovery Every +$10 in NA OSB price = +$58 million in Adjusted EBITDA at full capacity
Diversification from European operations and Asian export sales
High quality asset base with low operating costs
Focused customer strategy and strong customer partnerships
Superior margins versus peers
Track record of disciplined capital allocation
Strong financial liquidity and comfortable debt maturities
Norbord Inc.
Suite 600 One Toronto Street
Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2W4 Canada
Tel: 416-365-0705 Fax: 416-365-3292
www.norbord.com