TD Economics€¦ · Chart 13: Second Wave Engulfs Canada, Especially Quebec 450 470 490 510 530...

TD Economics

@TD_Economicshttp://economics.td.com

TD COVID-19 Economic Tracker

Advanced Economies

A resurgence in COVID infections has swept through most advanced economies (AEs) since mid-March. In the U.K., by con-trast, case counts have fallen to the lowest level since September 2020. Even with the high caseloads, death rates in AEs have decreased, pointing to the success of vaccination campaigns. Still, with cases elevated and new variants running rampant, several countries have either maintained lockdowns or tightened existing restrictions, reducing mobility and slowing economic activity. On the vaccine front, Israel continues to lead the charge, with the U.S. and UK also showing solid progress. Canada and the EU had a slow start out of the gate, but they have gained ground in recent weeks, as vaccine shortages have gradually been alleviated.

Sohaib Shahid, Senior Economist | 416-982-2556Uthman Adepoju, Research Analyst

April 27, 2021

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*7-day moving average. Source: OWID, TD Economics. Last observation: April 25, 2021.

New COVID Cases Per Million*

Chart 1: Cases Remain High Across Most AEsNew COVID Cases Per Million*

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New COVID Deaths Per Million*

Chart 2: Covid Related Deaths Are on the Decline Across Most AEs

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Chart 3: Continued Restrictions and Lockdowns Underpin High Social Distancing

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*7-day moving average. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. Source: Google Mobility, TD Economics. Last observation: April 21, 2021.

Community Mobility, % Change from Pre-pandemic Baseline*

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Note: Data for the World, Canada, Israel, Germany and the U.S. are from April 25th, while data for the U.K are from April 24th. Source: OWID, TD Economics.

Share of People Who Have Received at Least One Vaccine Dose, %

Chart 4: Israel Leads the Way, as Vaccine Provision Varies Across AEs

http://www.td.com/economics/special/rk0409_g20.pdf

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Emerging Markets

Daily new cases have leveled off in most major emerging markets (EMs), with the notable exception of India and Brazil. India’s second wave has been catastrophic and is showing no signs of abating. If India’s daily infections continue to grow at the current pace, it will soon overtake Brazil as the world’s second worst-hit country per capita (only behind the U.S.). Deaths due to the virus are following the same trend as infections across most EMs. In countries like Russia and South Africa where cases are trending downwards, this is a welcome development. Meanwhile, social distancing has eased in recent weeks. This is true even in Brazil and India where most of the population cannot afford to close shop or social distance. Meanwhile, despite support from the COVAX facility, EMs’ vaccine rollout remains sluggish and continues to lag AEs. High-income EMs such as Chile and Bahrain are exceptions, as they continue to outpace other EMs and even some AEs.

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New COVID Cases Per Million*

Chart 5: Cases Are Skyrocketing in India

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Chart 6: Death Rate Has Been Following a Similar Trend as the Infection Rate in EMs

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*7-day moving average. Source: TD Economics. Last observation: April 25, 2021.

New COVID Deaths Per Million*

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*7-day moving average. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. Source: Google Mobility, TD Economics. Last observation: April 21, 2021.

Community Mobility, % Change from Pre-pandemic Baseline*

Chart 7: Social Distancing Has Decreased but Remains Below Pre-pandemic Levels

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Chart 8: Considerable Discrepancy in Terms of Vaccine Access Among Emerging Markets

Note: Data for Russia, Argentina, Bahrain, Brazil, and the World are from April 25th, while data for Chile are from April 24th. Source: OWID, TD Economics.

Share of People Who Have Received at Least One Vaccine Dose, %


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United States

The March uptick in cases has subsided as vaccinations have picked up speed. Almost 55% of U.S. adults have received at least one dose of the vaccine. Meanwhile, the labor market continues to recover. Initial unemployment claims dropped by 39k in the week ending April 17, still above pre-pandemic levels but improving at an increasing rate. As global cases rise, heightened fears of a slowdown in the global recovery have led investor sentiment to become less bullish in recent weeks. Still, the New York Fed Economic Index – an indicator of the pace of U.S. economic growth relative to a year ago – contin-ues to power forward. While new virus variants pose a downside risk to re-opening, the economy appears set to accelerate further in the months ahead.

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Initial Unemployment Claims,State Programs (LHS)

Continued UnemploymentClaims, State Programs (RHS)

*Seasonally Adjusted.Source: US Department of Labor Statistics, TD Economics. Last observation: Week ended April 17 and April 10 for initial and continued claims, respectively.

Millions* Millions*

Chart 10: Unemployment Claims Are Bottoming Out

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Chart 11: New York Fed Weekly Economic Index Sees A Jump

Source: New York Fed, TD Economics. Last observation: April 17, 2021.

NY Fed Economic Index

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Source: AAII, BARRONS, TD Economics. Last observation: April 21, 2021.

US Investor Sentiment, %

Chart 12: Investor Sentiment Have Become Less Optimistic in Recent Weeks

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Chart 9: Cases Are Declining Across the U.S.

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*7-day moving average.Note: Data covers four regions; New England (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT); Mid Atlantic (NJ, NY, PA); Upper South Atlantic (DC, DE, MD, NC, VA, WV); Lower South Atlantic (FL, GA, SC). Source: Moody's Analytics, TD Economics. Last observation: April 20, 2021.

New COVID Cases Per 100k*


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Canada

Canada experienced a surge in cases in mid-March and early-April. Ontario and Alberta are grappling with a steep third wave of infections and most provinces have tightened restrictions in recent weeks in order to contain the spread of highly contagious COVID variants. The Canadian labor market has shown resilience so far. The economy added over 303k jobs in March and the unemployment rate stood at its lowest level since February 2020. Total hours worked also continued to trend higher in the month. These developments are encouraging, but both employment and hours remain below pre-pandemic levels and are likely to take a step back in April. Spending by Canadians has fallen sharply in recent weeks owing to renewed restrictions. Meanwhile, the housing market remains red hot even though the interest in housing has taken a slight dip in recent weeks.

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* 7-day moving average. Source: Government of Canada, TD Economics. Last observation: April 25, 2021.

New Cases Per 100k*

Chart 13: Cases Surge Across Most Provinces, with Ontario and Quebec Facing a Third Wave

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Chart 14: Labor Market Is Strengthening, but Still a Long Way to Go

Employment (LHS)

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*Seasonally Adjusted. Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics. Last observation: March, 2021.

Hours, Millions*Millions*

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Spend, ex. 3 Worst Hit Categories

Note: The Worst Hit Categories are Travel, Transportation, Recreation & Entertainment. 2021 growth rates is calculated as average annual growth relative to 2019 levels.Source: TD Economics. Last data point April 2, 2021.

Personal Spending, Year/Year % Change

Chart 15: Spending Drops Due to Resurgent Virus and Renewed Restrictions

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*7-day moving average. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term.Source: Google Trends, TD Economics. Last observation: week ended April 18, 2021.

Interest Over Time*

Chart 16: Interest in Housing Tapered


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Services

Retail activity across most AEs is improving on the back of falling cases, as consumers gradually scale up retail and recre-ational activities. Restaurants continue to struggle, but warmer weather in the northern hemisphere has allowed for some im-provement in recent weeks. Meanwhile, air travel edged up during spring break but slipped in recent weeks due to increased COVID cases globally. International travel remains stymied by tight cross-border travel restrictions in several countries. The entertainment industry continues to struggle due to the in-person nature of its business. Most countries’ box office revenues remain well below the levels seen before the pandemic.

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*7-day moving average. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. Source: Google Mobility Reports,TD Economics. Last observation: April 21, 2021.

Retail and Recreation Mobility, % Change from Pre-pandemic Baseline*

Chart 17: Retail Activity Remains Well Below Prepandemic Levels

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*7-day moving average. Note: Data represents seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations.Source: OpenTable, TD Economics. Last observation: April 25, 2021.

Seated Dinners, Year/Year % Change*

Chart 18: The Restaurant Industry Continues to Struggle but Is Showing Signs of Improvement

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Number of flights 7-day moving average

Source: FlightRadar, TD Economics. Last observation: April 25, 2021.

Number of Flights Per Day, Thousands

Chart 19: Airline Industry's Recovery Halted as Countries Tighten Restrictions

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*Domestic includes combined box office revenues for the U.S. and Canada. Source: Box Office Mojo, TD Economics. Last observation: April, 2021.

Revenues, % Change Relative to 2019

Chart 20: Box Office Revenues Flat, Japan Sees a Slight Uptick


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Commodities & Financial Sector

The global economic recovery continues to support commodity prices. Copper has seen some price gains in recent weeks on the back of tighter supply. Similarly, gold prices are rebounding due to a weakening U.S. dollar and lower treasury yields. Meanwhile, oil prices have remained under pressure in recent weeks over lingering concerns about renewed restrictions. On the other hand, the volatility index (VIX) – a measure used to track volatility on the S&P 500 index – closed at its lowest level since February 2020 as equity markets posted all-time highs. Government borrowing costs are up relative to the im-mediate pre-crisis period but are now lower than their late-March highs. Turkey is still struggling to bring down borrowing rates, as markets’ weak confidence in the Turkish Government persists after it sacked the Central Bank Governor just four months into his job.

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*End of Period. Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, TD Economics. Last observation: April 23, 2021.

USD/Ounce USD/LB

Chart 21: Copper's Rally Continues Thanks to China and Tight Global Supply

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WTI*, USD/Barrel

Chart 22: Oil Prices Hold Steady, but Some Headwinds Remain

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Source: TPI, BoC, US Fed, BOE, TD Economics. Last observation: April 23, 2021.

Change in Interest Rate from February 2020, %

Chart 23: Borrowing Rates Are Still Sky High in Turkey

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Chart 24: Financial Stress and Equity Volatility Remains Low

VIX (LHS)

TDE FSI (RHS)

Note: Historical values of the VIX are spliced using the original methodology (VXO). Source: Wall Street Journal, TD Economics. Last observation: April 21, 2021.

Market Volatility Index Standard Deviations


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DisclaimerThis report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

TD Economics€¦ · Chart 13: Second Wave Engulfs Canada, Especially Quebec 450 470 490 510 530...

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