TBLI CONFERENCE™ EUROPE 2014 - Energy Development - Mark Campanale - Carbon Tracker
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Transcript of TBLI CONFERENCE™ EUROPE 2014 - Energy Development - Mark Campanale - Carbon Tracker
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Mark Campanale
Founder & Executive Director
Carbon Tracker Initiative !“Beyond Fossil Fuel Investment - Developments in the Energy Sector” !28 October 2014
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“…an easy and powerful bit of arithmetical analysis first published by financial analysts in the U.K. has been making the rounds… (it) up-ends most of the conventional political thinking about climate change. And it allows us to understand our precarious position with…. simple numbers”. Bill McKibben
A movement out of nowhere…..
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May 2014: Stanford to divest from coal companies June 2014: British Medical Association votes to divest from fossil fuels July 2014: World Council of Churches pulls fossil fuel investments Sept 2014: Rockefellers, Heirs to an Oil Fortune, Will Divest of Fossil Fuels Oct 2014: Glasgow first university in Europe to divest from fossil fuels Oct 2014: Australian National University dumps mining stocks
Divestment gains momentum
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Climate March, during Climate Week NYC 2014
Carbon Bubble burst on horns of Wall Street bull
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°C Budget: broken in just few decades?
80% probability limiting to 2C; IPCC estimate
2031 2045
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Growing capex, falling production
Wall Street Journal, Jan 2014
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Coal equities down 50% over last five yearsIn
dex
Valu
e (r
ebas
ed t
o 10
0)
0
45
90
135
180
Aug-09Mar-10Oct-10Jun-11Jan-12Aug-12Apr-13Nov-13Jun-14
8Note: Bloomberg Global Coal Index encompasses 32 large coal producers. Source: Bloomberg LP, CTI/ETA analysis 2014 !
MSCI World Energy Index = 149
MSCI World Index = 163
Bloomberg Global Coal Index = 49
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• The capital costs of fossil fuel projects is on the rise whilst the cost of clean energy is falling;
• Many high-cost/high-carbon projects are destroying value today, putting over $1 trillion at risk over the next decade;
• The financial risks rise dramatically, to over $20 trillion by 2050, in a world of ambitious climate policies.
• This is potentially wasted capital !
Talking points & research are to be found at www.carbontracker.org
Key Observations
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" We think that a decision to no longer invest in oil, coal and gas companies will not contribute to a reduction in the use of fossil fuels and therefore does not contribute to a reduction in CO2 emissions.“ !Letter from Nicole Breech, Director of Administrative Bureau ABP on behalf of the board of Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP. 25-Sept-014 !How useful is divestment in itself, in addressing climate risk?
ABP: response to Fossil Free Netherlands letter regarding risks Carbon Bubble
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