Tbilisis iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis saxelmwifo universiteti medea ... · politikis analizis zogadi...

Tbilisis iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis saxelmwifo universiteti

medea qoCoraZe

aSS-is sagareo politikis analizi, meTodologia da funqcionireba

(saqarTvelos damoukidebel saxelmwifod CamoyalibebasTan mimarTebaSi)

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi filosofiis doqtoris akademiuri xarisxis mosapoveblad warmodgenili

disertacia

samecniero xelmZRvaneli prof. zurab daviTaSvili

Tbilisi

2008

avtoris stili daculia

T b i l i s i

2

sarCevi

Sesavali 4

Tavi I 13

sagareo politikis kvlevis Teoriuli wanamZRvrebi 13 1.1 sagareo politikis kvlevis mimarTeba saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa da Sidapolitologiur kvlevasTan 13 1.2 sagareo politikis kvlevis meTodologiebis mimoxilva 14 1.3 sagareo politikis sistemuri analizi 21

1.3.1 sagareo politikis sistemis konceptualuri da operaciuli gansazRvreba 21 1.3.2 sagareo politikis sistemis parametrebi da cvladebi 22 1.3.3 sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis garemo 27

1.3.3.1 saerTaSoriso sistema 30 1.3.3.2 Sidapolitikuri sistema 37 1.3.3.3 obieqti saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema da sagreo politikis

orientacia 40 1.3.4 garemos koncentruli modeli 40

Tavi II 42

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis meqanizmi 42 2.1 preambula 42 2.2 saerTaSoriso garemo 42

2.2.1. komunizmis damarcxeba 43 2.2.2 arastabilurobis axali kerebi 46 2.2.3 axali safrTxeebis ganviTareba 48 2.2..4 axali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmna 51 2.2.5 saxelmwifoebs Soris mzardi urTierT-damokidebuleba 53

2.3 aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemo 58 2.3.1 socialur-ekonomikuri struqtura. 58

2.3.1.1 ekonomikuri zrdis tempi 59 2.3.1.2 biujetis Sesruleba 60 2.3.1.3 savaWro balansi 62

2.3.2 aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis reagireba socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis parametrebze. 63 2.3.3 korelacia saerTaSoriso garemos parametrebs da Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikur parametrebs Soris 68 2.3.4 ideologiuri struqtura 70

2.3.4.1 politikuri partiebi 70 2.3.4.2 sazogadoebrivi azri da masmedia 78 2.3.4.3 interesTa jgufebi, arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da analitikuri centrebi 83 2.3.4.4 politikuri istebliSmenti 86

3

Tavi III 97

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionireba saqarTvelos damoukidebel saxelmwifod CamoyalibebasTan mimarTebaSi 97

3.1 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi 98 3.1.1 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis urTierTqmedebebi saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze 98

3.1.1.1 baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukidebloba 99 3.1.1.2 sakavSiro xelSekruleba 101 3.1.1.3 putCi 102

3.1.2 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis urTierTqmedebebi Sidapolitikur Sreze 104

3.1.2.1 masmedia da sazogadoebrivi azri 104 3.1.2.2 specialuri interesebi 107 3.1.2.3 politikuri istebliSmneti 113 3.1.2.4 politikuri partiebi 127

3.1.3 aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis Sedegebi `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis cvladTan~ mimarTebaSi 132

3.2 prognozis funqcia 136

daskvna 139

gamoyenebuli literatura 152

danarTebi 170

4

Sesavali

problemis aqtualoba. saxelmwifoTa sagareo politikis Seswavlis

Tanamedrove etapze Camoyalibda aucilebloba imisa, rom empiriuli kvlevis

Sedegebi axleburad aisaxos saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa TeoriaSi.

ZiriTadi pretenzia, romelic gamoiTqmis politikis calkeuli

dargebis, maT Soris sagareo politikis, kvlevis mimarT mdgomareobs imaSi,

rom am tipis gamokvlevebi, Tavisi konkretuli fokusirebis gamo, viwroa da

Tavs aridebs zogadpolitologiuri Teoriebis SemuSavebas. aRiniSneba, rom

miuxedavad imisa, rom am tipis kvlevebi, erTi mxriv, sasargebloa Sesabamisi

dargis praqtikosi politikosebisaTvis da, meore mexriv, uzrunvelyofs

saWiro informacias SesaZlo induqciuri Teoriebis asagebad, TviT

politikuri mecnierebis Teoriis TvalsazrisiT, maT naklebi mniSvneloba

eniWebaT (Sabatier, 1991, p. 265-266). avRniSnavT, rom amgvari braldebebi

ZiriTadad momdinareobs politologebisagan, romlebic politikuri

mecnierebis kvlevis ZiriTad sagnad Sidapolitikur procesebs miiCneven.

Tumca, sagareo politikis SemTxvevaSic, sadac ZiriTadad miCneulia, rom

sagareo politikis Seswavlis sagans warmoadgens saxelmwifoTa

urTierTqmedeba, romelic mimarTulia maTi erovnuli interesebis

maqsimalur dakmayofilebaze (iqneba es absoluturi Tu SedarebiTi

xarisxiT, rogorc amas ganasxvaveben realizmis Tu liberaluri skolis

mimdevrebi) da naklebad aris orientirebuli Sidapolitikur procesebze,

Tanamedrove mkvlevarebi (orive skolis farglebSi) miuTiTeben

saxelmwifoTaSorisi urTierTobebis axal aqtorebze (politikur Zalebze,

socialur-ekonomikur jgufebze, arasamTavrobo organizaciebze, calkeul

individebze da sxva), romlebic sul ufro mzard zegavlenas axdenen

sagareo politikis ganxorcielebaze. Sesabamisad, sagareo politikis

Tanamedrove kvleva unda eswrafvodes zogadpolitologiuri principebis

SemuSavebas, romlebic safuZvlad daedeba amgvar mravalfaqtorian analizs.

5

uSualod aSS-is sagareo politikis Tanamedrove kvlevaTa moculoba,

romelic ganxilulia Cvens mier, SeiZleba daiyos Semdeg kategoriebad:

-- aSS-is sagareo politika calke aRebuli erTi saxelmwifos an

regionis mimarT, romelic efuZneba aSS-is konkretul strategiul

interesebs (mag. : ukrainis birTvuli iaraRis gaunebelyofa; TanamSromloba

ruseTTan masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gauvrceleblobis sakiTxebze;

CineTis bazaris aTviseba amerikuli eqsportisaTvis, partnioroba

integrirebul evropasTan da sxva (Atwood, 1990; Starostenko, 1998; Chen, 1998; Beck,

1998, Granieri, 2006; Huliaras, 2006; Polat, 2007; Daly, 2008) ;

-- aSS-is sagareo politikis ganxorcielebis saSualebebi (sagareo

daxmareba, `iZulebiTi diplomatia,~ arasamTavrobo organizaciebi,

ekonomikuri sanqciebi da sxva) (Castillo, 1998; Easley, 1999; Mills, 1999; Javrik, 2007,

Cumings, 2007; Adelman, 2007; Rarick, 2008);

-- saerTaSoriso sistema, aSS-is erovnuli interesebi da erovnuli

ideologia, saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa Teoriebi (politikuri realizmis

amerikuli skola), rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli

faqtorebi (Schonberg, 1998; Dai, 1999, Lahneman, 1999; Gentry, 1999, kakaCia, 2002);

-- gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesis calkeuli aspeqtebi (Ripley, 1990;

Frelich, 1998);

-- aSS-is urTierToba saerTaSoriso organizaciebTan da monawileoba

samSvidobo da humanitarul operaciebSi (Elston, 1998; Wright, 1998; Davis, 1998;

Ronayne, 1999; Hamilton, 1999; Kupchan, 2004; Simon, 2004; Topic, 2004);

-- aSS-is saagreo politikis axali gamowvevebi (fundamentalisturi

islami, terorizmi da sxva) (Logan, 1998; K. Lieber and R. Lieber, 2002, Hassig R. C. and

Kongdan Oh, 2005; Sokolski H., 2005; Oxford Analytica, 2008).

Tanamedrove periodis aRniSnuli naSromebi ikvleven aSS-is sagareo

politikis sxvadasxva aspeqts, Tumca ar eswrafvian zogadpolitologiuri

Teoriuli principebis SemuSavebas, rac erTi mxriv, calmxrivad

warmoadgens miRweul Sedegebs, xolo meore mxriv, arTulebs maT

dakavSirebas erTian Tanmimdevrul konceptualur sistemaSi. zogierTi

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avtori miuTiTebs saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa TeoriaSi sagareo

politikis empiriul kvlevaTa Sedegebis axleburi asaxvis aucileblobaze

(Beck, 1998), magram amgvari miTiTebebi iSviaTia da kvlav ar efuZneba erTian

konceptualur CarCos. 1

amave dros, amgvari konceptualuri CarCos SemuSaveba mniSvnelovania

ara mxolod konkretuli saxelmwifos, am SemTxvevaSi aSS-is, realuri

sagareo politikis analizis TvalsazrisiT, aramed misi Semdgomi

prognozirebis da Sesabamisi rekomendaciebis gawevis TvalsazrisiTac im

saxelmwifoTaTvis, romelTa mimarTac xorcieldeba mocemuli saxelmwifos,

am SemTxvevaSi aSS-is sagareo politika.

warmodgenili naSromis aqtualoba mdgomareobs sagareo politikis

kvlevis zogadi meTodologiis SemuSavebis mcdelobaSi, romelic xels

Seuwyobs, erTi mxriv, calkeul saxelmwifoTa (Cvens SemTxvevaSi aSS-is)

sagareo politikis analizs, xolo, meore mxriv, politikuri mecnierebis

Teoriis ganviTarebas. SemuSavebuli meTodologiis ZiriTadi principebis

gamoyeneba, amave dros, sasargeblo unda iyos gansxvavebul

institucionalur pirobebSi mimdinare politikuri qcevis analizisTvisac.

kvlevis obieqti da sagani. Cveni kvlevis obieqts warmoadgens sagareo

politikis analizis zogadi meTodologia, romelic xels Seuwyobs, erTi

mxriv, calkeul saxelmwifoTa sagareo politikis kvlevas, xolo meore

mxriv, -- politikuri mecnierebis zogadi Teoriis ganviTarebas.

Cveni kvlevis sagans, rogorc zemoT aRniSnuli kvlevis obieqtis

calkeuli aspeqtebis gamovlinebas realur sazogadoebriv cxovrebaSi,

warmoadgens konkretuli saxelmwifos, kerZod aSS-is, sagareo politikis

konkretuli droiTi da sivrciTi realizaciis analizis meTodologia.

kvlevis mizani da amocanebi. sadisertacio naSromis mizania:

sagareo politikis kvlevis SemuSavebuli zogadi meTodologiis

safuZvelze, vuCvenoT aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionireba,

1 magaliTad, erT-erTi wamyvani evropuli kvleviTi centri -- `sagareo politikis centri ~-- romlis gacxadebuli mizanicaa sagareo politikis kvlevis aratradiciuli midgomebis

7

rac saSualebas mogvcems gavaanalizoT aSS-is sagareo politika

saqarTvelos suverenitetis damkvidrebis rogorc erT konkretul

sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi, aseve misi samomavlo ganviTarebis SesaZlo

tendenciebTan mimarTebaSi.

aRniSnuli mizani gansazRvravs kvlevis Semdeg amocanebs:

1. CamovayaliboT sagareo politikis kvlevis zogadmeTodologiuri

modeli.

mocemuli amocana, Tavis mxriv, moicavs Semdeg safexurebs:

-- ganvsazRvroT sagareo politikis kvlevis mimarTeba, erTi mxriv,

saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevasTan da, meore mxriv, saxelmwifos

Sidapolitikuri procesebis kvlevasTan da, Sesabamisad, gavaanalizoT

sagareo politikis kvlevis arsebuli meTodologiebi;

-- ganvsazRvroT sagareo politikis sistemis konceptualuri da

operaciuli mxareebi;

-- ganvsazRvroT sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis garemos

konceptualuri da operaciuli mxareebi;

-- CamovayaliboT sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis optimaluri

modeli.

2. SemuSavebuli meTodologiis safuZvelze, vuCvenoT aSS-is sagareo

politikis sistemis funqcionireba saqarTvelos mimarT (saqarTvelos

suverenitetis uzrunvelyofis erT-erT yvelaze kritikul sakiTxTan --

damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi).

3. warmovaCinoT SemuSavebuli meTodologiis SemecnebiTi, prognozis

da sarekomendacio funqciebi Sesabamisi aqtorebisTvis.

Mmecnieruli wvlili da praqtikuli Rirebuleba. dasaxuli amocanebis

warmatebiT gadaWra saSualebas mogvcems SevitanoT garkveuli wvlili

politikuri mecnierebis ganviTarebaSi sami aspeqtiT, romelic moicavs: 1.

sagareo politikis kvlevis Teoriul sakiTxebs; 2. saerTaSoriso

SemuSaveba, Tavis momxmarebels ar sTavazobs analizis raime erTian meTodologiur koncepcias.

8

urTierTobaTa disciplinis Teoriul sakiTxebs; da 3. saerTaSoriso

urTierTobaTa disciplinis Tanamedrove empiriul sakiTxebs.

kvlevis praqtikuli Rirebulebis gansazRvrisas, pirvel rigSi

amovalT arsebuli Tvalsazrisidan, romlis Tanaxmad saerTaSoriso

urTierTobaTa Teoria, xsnis ra saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa sferos, amave

dros TviTonac warmoadgens saerTaSoriso praqtikis Semadgenel nawils,

radganac xSirad imisda mixedviT, Tu ra Teoriuli sqemebisa da Sefasebebis

meSveobiT ganixileba saerTaSoriso viTareba, ganisazRvreba is

racionaluri sqemebi da Sefasebebi, romlebic safuZvlad edeba

gadawyvetilebis miRebisa da Sesabamis aqtorebs Soris urTierTqmedebis

process.

wminda pragmatuli TvalsazrisiT, sistemur principebze agebuli

sagareo politikis kvlevis zogadmeTodologiuri modeli itvirTavs sam

ZiriTad funqcias -- SemecnebiT, prognozis da rekomendaciis gawevis

funqcas, -- romelic uzrunvelyos Sesabamisi analizis warmoebas rogorc

sagareo politikis ganmaxorcielebeli `subieqti~ saxelmwifos (Cvens

SemTxvevaSi aSS-is), aseve òbieqti~ saxelmwifos (Cvens SemTxvevaSi

saqarTvelos) mimarT.

kerZod, SemecnebiTi funqciis ganxorcieleba uzrunvelyofs: 1.

obieqturi da subieqturi saxis struqturirebul informacias `subieqti~

saxelmwifos sagareo politikis garemos mravalmxrivi realobis Taobaze;

2. obieqturi da subieqturi saxis struqturirebul informacias òbieqti~

saxelmwifos Sida da sagareo politikis im aspeqtebze, romlebic

mniSvnelovania `subieqti~ saxelmwifos mokle da grZelvadian

interesebTan mimarTebaSi.

prognozis Ffunqciis ganxorcieleba uzrunveyofs: 1. òbieqti~

saxelmwifos garkveuli sakiTxebis `subieqti~ saxelmwifos sagareo

politikis sakiTxebad Camoyalibebis procesis analizs; 2. aRniSnul

sakiTxebze `subiqti~ saxelmwifos politikis ganviTarebis SesaZlo

mimarTulebebis analizs.

9

rekomendaciis gawevis funqcia waadgeba `obieqti~ saxelmwifos

politikur liderebsa da analitikosebs, vinaidan saSualebas mogvcems

gaweuli iyos: 1. moklevadiani taqtikuri xasiaTis rekomendaciebi,

ramdendac gaanalizebuli realobis fragmenti konkretul droiT da

sivrciT CarCoebSia moqceuli; 2. grZelvadiani strategiuli xasiaTis

rekomendaciebi, ramdenadac gaanalizebuli realobis fragmenti, Sedarebis,

analogiis Tu eqstrapolaciis gziT, SeiZleba '`daidos~ droisa da sivrcis

ufro vrcel monakveTze.

gamoyenebuli wyaroebi da literatura.

Cveni kvlevis Teoriuli miznebisaTvis Seswavlili iyo sagreo

politikis analizis arsebuli meTodologiebi, romelTa Sorisac,

analizis amosavali Tvalsizrisis safuZvelze, sami ZiriTadi mimarTuleba

gamoikveTa: saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa, Sidapolitologiuri da

sistemuri analizis mimarTulebebi.

aSS-is sagareo politikisadmi miZRvnil gamokvlevebSi aseve

gamoikveTa ZiriTadi tendencia, romelic analizis amosaval Tvalsazrisad

swored `saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa~ Tvalsazriss miiCenvs da realurad

istoriul-aRwerilobiT meTods iyenebs. am naSromebs Soris aRsaniSnavia h.

kisinjeris, s. hukis da j. spanieris, s. ambrouzis da d. brinklis, j. Ceisis,

T. patersonis da d. merilis da sxvaTa gamokvlevebi.

`politologiuri~ mimarTulebis analizisas, romelic

gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesze aris fokusirebuli da mxedvelobaSi

iRebs, rogorc kognitur, aseve fsiqologiur faqtorebs, Cven daveyrdeniT

r. snaideris, h. brukis, b. sapinis, j. rozenaus, j. marCis da j. olsenis da

sxvaTa publikaciebs.

literaturis analizis safuZvelze SevecadeT warmogveCina sagareo

politikis kvlevis sistemuri midgomis - rogorc sagareo politikis

ganmsazRvrel faqtorTa mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebis dadgenis saSualebis

upiratesoba. am mimarTulebis farglebSi, Cven didwilad daveyrdeniT r.

hoferbertis, j. kingdomis, p. sabatieris da sxvaTa kvlevebs. sistemuri

midgomis farglebSi, SevecadeT ra SegvemuSavebina sagareo politikis

10

sistemis garemos struqtura da analizis erTeulebi, Cvens mier

gaanalizebuli iyo harold da margaret sprautebis, k. ferandsis, d.

istonis da sxvaTa naSromebi.

uSualod empiriuli kvlevis miznebisaTvis gamoyenebuli iyo Semdegi

wyaroebi: -- amerikuli presa (New York Times Current Events Edition, USA Today,

Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, da sxva); -- aSS-is sagareo politikaze

pasuxismgebeli saxelmwifo istebliSmentis mier gamoqveynebuli

dokumentebi da gancxadebebi (Congressional Quarterly, U.S. Department of State Dispatch,

Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State da sxva); -- aSS kongresis mosmenebis

gamoqveynebuli teqstebi; -- aSS kongresis `evropaSi usafrTxoebisa da

TanamSromlobis komisiis” moxsenebebi; -- amerikeli da qarTveli avtorebis

(v. odomi da r. duJariki, d. darCiaSvili da T. pataraia, m. macaberiZe da

sxvebi) analitikuri gamokvlevebi saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis sakiTxebze.

naSromSi aseve gamoyenebuli iyo piradi interviuebi amerikuli analitikuri

centrebis warmomadgenlebTan amerika-saqarTvelos urTierTobebis

sakiTxebze.

kvlevis meTodebi. Cveni kvlevis zemoaRniSnuli miznis da amocanebis

gadaWris mizniT Cvens mier gamoyenebuli iyo politologiuri kvlevis

meTodebi, romelTa Sesabamisma adaptaciam aseve SesaZlebeli gaxada maTi

gamoyeneba sagareo politikis kvlevisaTvis. kerZod, gamoyenebuli iyo

Semdegi meTodebi:

1. sistemuri meTodi, romelmac struqturul-funqcionalur midgomaze

dayrdnobiT, saSualeba mogvca gangvexorcielebina sagareo politikis

sistemuri warmodgena im mravalganzomilebiani procesebis

gaTvaliswinebiT, romlebic monawileoben mis formirebaSi. kerZod,

aRniSnul meTodze dayrdnobiT gavaanalizeT aSS-is sagareo politikis

sistemis struqturebi, maTi komponentebi, aRniSnuli komponentebis

Sesabamisi parametrebi da sabolood, am parametrebis zemoqmedeba sagareo

politikis sistemis funqcionirebis reJimebze.

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2. SedarebiTi meTodi, romelmac analizis sagnis variaciebis

dadgenis gziT saSualeba mogvca gamogvevlina Cveni kvlevis miznebisaTvis

saintereso is specifiuri niSanTvisebebi, romlebic sxagvarad SeiZleba

dafaruli yofiliyo pirdapiri kvlevisas. kerZod, CavatareT Sepirispireba

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebisa saqarTvelos mimarT

mis funqcinirebasTan samxreT kavkasiis danarCeni ori respublikis -

somxeTis da azerbaijanis mimarT, aRniSnul saxelmwifoTa mier

damoukideblobis mopovebis sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi. aRniSnuli

SepirispirebiTi analizis Catarebisas, amovediT daSvebidan, rom samxreT

kavkasia, Tavisi socialur- politikuri gamocdilebiT, perspeqtiuli

miznebiT, SesaZleblobebiTa da zogadi geopolitikuri mniSvnelobiT, met-

naklebad erTian erTeuls warmoadgens aSS-is politikuri azrisa da misi

strategiuli Tu ekonomikuri interesebisaTvis. am mimarTebiT, misi

mniSvnelobac, rogorc erTiani regionisa, gacilebiT ufro metia vidre

cal-calke aRebuli samive saxelmwifos mniSvneloba. Sesabamisad,

davuSviT, rom regionis mimarT gatarebuli SedarebiT erTiani miznebis da

saSualebebis mqone sagareo politikis pirobebSi, erTi calkeuli

saxelmwifos mimarT warmoebuli politikis ganmasxvavebeli niSnebi yvelaze

kargad swored danarCen saxelmwifoTa mimarT warmoebul politikasTan

SedarebaSi warmoCindeba.

garda zemoaRniSnulisa, saqarTvelos mimarT warmoebuli aSS-is

sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis Sepirispirebam mis

funqcionirebasTan samxreT kavkasiis danarCeni saxelmwifoebis mimarT,

saSualeba mogvca warmogveCina mTlianad regionSi aSS-is sagareo

politikisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli zogadi modelebi.

3. normatul-RirebulebiTi meTodi, romelmac garkveuli movlenebis

arsebul SefasebaTa gamovlinebiT, saSualeba mogvca gangvesazRvra aSS-is

sagareo politikis sistemis monawileTa Sesabamisi RirebulebiTi

poziciebi. aRniSnuli meTodis amosaval pozicias warmoadgens daSveba, rom

politikuri aqtorebi Tavis SefasebebSi eyrdnobian garkveul sayovlTao

Tu subieqtur eTikur normebs, rac am meTodis obieqturobas xSirad

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sakamaTos xdis. miuxedavad amisa, migvaCnia, rom is RirebulebiTi

Sefasebebi, romlebic wamoweuli iyo Cvens mier saqarTvelosTan

mimarTebaSi sandoa da mniSvnelovanwilad aisaxa sagareo politikis

Sesabamis gadawyvetilebebSi.

4. empiriuli kvlevis meTodi, romelmac sagazeTo publikaciebis,

akademiuri gamocemebis, oficialuri dokumentebis da kongresis mosmenebis

teqstebis analizze dayrdnobiT saSualeba mogvca gangvesazRvra, rogorc

sagareo politikis sistemis monawileTa zemoT aRniSnuli Sefasebebi da

poziciebi, aseve sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze miRebuli

deklaraciuli Tu operaciuli donis Sedegebi.

13

Tavi I

sagareo politikis kvlevis Teoriuli wanamZRvrebi

1.1 sagareo politikis kvlevis mimarTeba saerTaSoriso

urTierTobaTa da Sidapolitologiur kvlevasTan

1948 w. `iuneskos~ rezoluciis klasifikaciiT, sagareo politikis

kvleva saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis farglebSia moqceuli da

gamijnulia politologiis ZiriTadi sakiTxebisagan (Ujyxfhjd^ Ujynfhtdf^ 1996).

dRes gavrcelebuli TvalsazrisiT, zRvari saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa

mecnierebasa da sagareo politikis kvlevas Soris analizis sxvadasxva

doneze gadis (Singer, 1969). viziarebT ra am ori dargis kvlevis saganTa

gamijvnas, analizis donis kriteriums ar miviCnevT am gamijvnis amosaval

wertilad. vTvliT, rom analizis makro done, romelic globalur arenas

moicavs da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa mecnerebas aris mikuTvnebuli,

ucilobliv gasaTvaliswinebelia calkeuli saerTaSoriso aqtorebis

sagareo politikis kvlevisas. sagareo politika, Tavis mxriv, dinamiuri

saerTaSoriso sistemis nawils warmoadgens da yovel mocemul etapze

gansazRvravs mis Sinaarss. urTierToba maT Soris SeiZleba davaxasiaToT

`nawilisa da mTelis~ terminebSi, sadac isini erTmaneTs

komplementarulobis principiT ukavSirdebian.

`iuneskos~ zemoTmoyvanili rezoluciis Sesabamisad, sagareo

politikis kvleva xSirad gamijnulia wminda politologiuri kvlevisagan

da misi fokusi moqceulia saerTaSoriso aqtoris gare samyaroze

orientirebul qmedebebze. meore mxriv, is gamokvlevebi, romlebic

swavloben gacxadebuli sagareo politikis mizezebs, yuradRebas

amaxvileben rogorc saerTaSoriso, aseve Sidapolitikur garemoze. sagareo

politika aq moiazreba, rogorc xelisuflebis ZiriTadi institutis,

14

saxelmwifos, irgvliv koncentrirebul socialur urTierTqmedebaTa

Sedegi.

Cveni interpretaciiT, sagareo politikis damokidebuleba

Sidapolitikur sistemasTan misi saerTaSoriso sitemisadmi

damokidebulebis analogiuria, sadac Sidapolitikuri sistema sagareo

politikis funqcionirebis garemos warmoadgens. sagareo politika, pirvel

rigSi, xom mocemuli sazogadoebis RirebulebebTan mimarTebaSia

relevanturi. Tavis mxriv, sagareo politika qveynis Sidapolitikuri

sistemis erT-erT mniSvnelovan cvlads warmoadgens.

debora gerneris daxasiaTebiT, sagareo politikis mecniereba

politikuri mecnierebis `sakmaod ucnaur dargs warmoadgens~, romelic

exeba rogorc adgilobriv, aseve saerTaSoriso politikur arenas da `xtis~

analizis individualuri donidan sistemur doneze (Gerner, 1991, p.125). Cven

viziarebT sagareo politikis kompleqsur daxasiaTebas, romelic Tanabrad

iTvaliswinebs rogorc qveynis sazRvrebs SigniT mimdinare socialur-

politikur da ekonomikur procesebs, aseve mis sazRvrebs gareT

ganviTarebul saerTaSoriso movlenebs da, jeims rozenaus TqmiT,

warmoadgens `damakavSirebel xids~ saerTaSoriso da saSinao sakiTxebs

Soris (ibid).

sagareo politikis kvlevis sagnis mocemuli interpretacia

Sesabamisad gansazRvravs kvlevis meTodologiasac. qvemoT mokled

davaxasiaTebT ZiriTad Teoriul Tvalsazrisebs, romlebic Tanamedrove

gamokvlevebis meTodologiur konteqsts Seadgenen da Sesabamisad

gansazRvraven Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur aparatsac. 1

1.2 sagareo politikis kvlevis meTodologiebis mimoxilva

sagareo politikis kvlevis arsebul meTodologiebs davaxasiaTebT

maTi ZiriTadi amosavali Tvalsazrisis mixedviT. kerZod, gamovyofT:

1 saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis meTodologiuri sakiTxebis Taobaze ix. daviTaSvili, z., `meTodis problema saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevisas~, qarTuli diplomatia, weliwdeuli 6, Tbilisi 1999, gv. 255-261

15

saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa, politologiur da sistemur Tvalsazrisebs,

romlebic, Tavis mxriv, sagareo politikis analizis mravalmxriv midgomebs

gansazRvraven (bukia, 2002, gv. 78-83).

saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa TvalsazrisiT ganxorcielebuli

sagareo politikis analizi fokusirebulia saxelmwifo qmedebaze, romelic

mis sazRvrebs gareT aris mimarTuli da motivirebulia misi erovnuli

interesebis dasacavad. am Tvalsazrisis WrilSi xasiaTdeba tradiciuli e.w.

istoriul-aRwerilobiTi (an istoriul-iuridiuli) meTodi. igi

faqtobrivad swavlobs saxelmwifosTan gaigivebuli liderebis

saerTaSoriso qcevas da ZiriTadad ugulebelyofs Sidasaxelmwifoebriv

faqtorebs (Dobson and Marsh, 2006; Basevich, 2003; Hook and Spanier, 2000; Ambrose and

Brinkley, 1997; Paterson and Merrill, 1995; Kissinger, 1994; Chace, 1992). Tumca, amgvari

analizis farglebSi aseve figurirebs saerTaSoriso sistema, rogorc

garemo, romlis cvalebadobazec reagirebs saxelmwifo, rogorc

saerTaSorios subieqti (Pettman, 1975, p.41; Green and Twining, 2008). es midgoma,

romelsac jozef nai `saxelmwifo-centrul realizms~ (Nye, citirebulia:

White, 1995, p.11) uwodebs, saerTaSoriso sistemaSi saxelmwifos qcevas

politikuri realizmis terminebSi xsnis.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa Tvalsazriss efuZneba omisa da

mSvidobis bevri Tanamedrove Teoriac. jek kugleri am Teoriebis did

nawils aerTianebs paradigmaSi, romlis ZiriTad niSans saxelmwifoTa

Soris Zalauflebis ganawileba warmoadgens (Kugler, 1991, pp. 187-208). am

Teoriebis WrilSi aseve daculia tradiciuli meTodis iuridiuli aspeqti,

romelic xazs usvams saxelmwifos, rogorc samarTlebrivi subieqtis

statuss saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis aRiarebul struqturaSi. amave

Tvalsazriss SeiZleba mivakuTvnoT midgoma, romlis Tanaxmad qvenis

sagareo politikis warmateba didwilad ganapirobebs misi saSinao

politikis warmatebasac, sadac sagareo da saSinao politikis dialeqtikur

erTianobaSi, `sagareo politikis problemebis gadawyveta upirvelesi

16

mniSvnelobisaa movlenaTa mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebis sistemaSi~

(baraTaSvili, 1999, gv.10).

SesaZlebelia mtkiceba, rom Tanamedrove saxelmwifo-centruli

Teoriebi, Tavis mxriv, eyrdnoba axali mimarTulebis SedarebiT istoriul

sociologias da politikur ekonomias. SedarebiTi istoriuli

sociologia wina planze wamowevs saxelmwifos, rogorc erTiani aqtoris,

damoukidebel rols ara marto saerTaSoriso asparezze, aramed TviT

qveynis SigniTac (Booth and Smith, 1995, p.24). msgavsad, Tanamedrove politikuri

ekonomiis midgoma, saxelmwifos ganixilavs, rogorc sakuTari resursebis,

interesebis da ekonomikuri ideologiis mqone damoukidebel erTeuls,

romelic Tavisi ekonomikuri politikis gatarebis mizniT urTierTqmedebaSi

Sedis Sesabamis adgilobriv socialur jgufebTan (Papava, 2006, pp.657-667). 1

d. gerneris, b. munis da sxvaTa azriT, saxelmwifos, rogorc

unitaruli moqmedi piris, rols kidev ufro meti yuradReba unda

eTmobodes sagareo politikis Semdgom gamokvlevebSi, vinaidan sagareo

politikis gageba SeuZlebelia im miznebis, prioritetebis, da SezRudvebis

gareSe, romlebic warmarTaven saxelmwifo qcevas. amdenad, sagareo

politikis nebismieri Teoria amavdroulad unda Seicavdes TviT

saxelmwifos Teoriasac (Gerner, 1991, p. 167; Moon, 1983, pp. 315-340).

Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom Tanamedrove saxelmwifo-centrul

TeoriebSi aseve gamosWvivis wminda politologiuri Tvalsazrisic.

magaliTad r. rumelis interpretaciiT, saxelmwifo qmedebis analizisas

unda gaTvaliswinebuli iyos is faqti, rom saxelmwifos saxeliT moqmedi

`avtoritetuli~ elitis ukan dganan individualuri pirebi, romlebic

moqmedeben Sesabamisi politikur, biurokratiul da sazogadoebriv ZalTa

balansis garemoSi (Rummel, 1979); xolo jorj modelskis, uiliam tomsonis,

Carlz doranis da sxvaTa argumentaciiT, saerTaSoriso konfliqtebis

mizezebi saxelmwifoTa Sidapolitikur dinamikaSi unda veZioT da ara

1 Tanamedrove SedarebiTi istoriuli sociologiis da politikuri ekonomiis Teoriebis mimoxilva ix.: Geddes, Barbara, "Paradigms and Sand Castles in Comparative Politics of Developing Areas", Comparative Politics, Policy, and International Relations, Northwestern University Press, Evanston, Illinois, 1991, pp. 59-62

17

saxelmwifoTa urTierTqmedebaSi (Modelsky, 1987, Thompson, 1988, Doran, 1990,

citirebulia: Kugler, 1991, p.209).

sagareo politikis analizis `politologiuri~ Tvalsazrisi kvlevis

amosaval wertilad qveynis Sida politikur sistemas miiCnevs, sadac

analizis ZiriTadi obieqti aris ara saxelmwifos abstraqcia, aramed

sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli individebis qceva (Wallace, 1971, p.7). am

midgomis WrilSi Seiswavleba faqtorebi, romlebic zegavlenas axdenen

gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesze da moicaven, rogorc fsiqologiur

(kognituri procesebi), aseve sociologiur (socialuri struqtura da

socialuri jgufebi) aspeqtebs. aRniSnuli midgoma, romelic Tavdapirvelad

gamoikveTa r. snaideris, h. brukis, b. sapinis publikaciaSi (Snyder, Bruck, Sapin,

1954, citirebulia: Gerner, 1991, pp.134-135) da literaturaSi cnobilia,

rogorc `gadawyvetilebis miRebis midgoma~, viTardeboda politikur

mecnierebaSi biheviorizmis bumis fonze.

gadawyvetilebis miRebis empiriuli analizis Tvalsazrisi asaxulia

`SedarebiTi sagareo politikis~ mimarTulebaSi, romelic amave dros

cdilobs SeimuSavos sagareo politikis axsnis zogadi Teoria. kerZod,

jeims rozenaus Semoaqvs gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesisaTvis arsebiTi

faqtorebis kategoriebi, romlebic moicavs individualur, rolur,

samTavrobo, sazogadoebriv da sistemur faqtorebs da romelTa

rangirebac SesaZlebelia konkretuli saxelmwifos maxasiaTeblebis da

sagareo politikis konkretuli sakiTxebis mixedviT (Rosenau, 1966,

citirebulia: Gerner, 1991, pp.135-136). aRniSnuli kategoriebis SemoReba,

pirvel rigSi, warmoadgens sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebis

tipologizaciis mcdelobas, romlis mizania ganxorcieldes erTze meti

saxelmwifos sagareo politikis kvleva. am mimarTulebis farglebSi

muSavdeba agreTve `movlenaTa monacemTa bazebi~ (CREON-Comparative Research on

the Events of Nations; COPDAB-Conflict and Peace Data Bank, ICBD - International Crisis

Behaviour Datasets), romlebic aRweren aqtorebis qmedebebs Sida da

18

saerTaSoriso asparezze. 1 amgvar monacemTa bazebs akritikeben

arasrulyofilebis da SerCevis subieqturi kriteriumebis gamo, Tumca

miviCnevT, rom aRniSnuli midgomis erT-erT mniSvnelovan mxares (garda

imisa, rom igi scildeba erTi konkretuli kulturul-istoriuli sociumis

farglebs) warmoadgens saxelmwifos Sida politikisa da saerTaSoriso

politikis gadakveTis wertilebis Zieba, rac Tavis empiriul gamoxatulebas

swored rom mravalmxriv monacemTa bazebSi poulobs. magram aqve unda

aRiniSnos, rom aRniSnuli midgoma wminda aRwerilobiTi xasiaTisaa da

iseTi faqtorebi, rogoric aris evoluciuri procesebi da sistemuri

cvlilebebi mis farglebs gareT rCeba.

maSin rodesac SedarebiTi sagareo politikis midgoma cdilobs

Camoayalibos sagareo politikis analizis zogadTeoriuli modeli,

literaturaSi gamoikveTeba politologiuri analizis calkeuli

midgomebic, romlebic gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesis garkveul

aspeqtebze amaxvileben yuradRebas. am midgomebs Soris gamovyofT:

`racionaluri aqtoris~ qmedebis analizis midgomas (March, Olsen, 1984; Posner

and Vermeule, 2007); koleqtiuri qmedebisa da biurokratiuli procesis

analizis midgomas (Art, 1973; Fabbrini and Sicurelli, 2008); gadawyvetilebis miRebis

procesze arasaxelmwifoebrivi aqtorebis gavlenis Seswavlis modgomas

(Moore, 1974; East, 1978; Schwarz, 2008); kognituri procesebis da individis

Seswavlis midgomas (Alexander, 1969; Kalaitzidis, 2007; Kaarbo, 2008); da

gadawyvetilebis miRebis analizs krizisul situaciebSi (Holsti, North and

Brody, 1964; McClelland,1972; Williams, 1982). unda aRiniSnos, rom CamoTvlili

midgomebi sazogadoebriv konteqsts (bunebrivia, gansxvavebuli

interpretaciiT) gadawyvetilebis miRebis situaciis erT-erT ZiriTad

faqtorad ganixilaven, Tumca TviT am konteqstis ganmsazRvreli

parametrebi maTi yuradRebis miRma rCeba.

1 monacemTa bazebis mimoxilva ix: Gerner, Deborah J. " Foreign Policy Analysis: Renaissance, Routine, or Rubbish?" Comparative Politics, Policy, and International Relations, Northwestern University Press, Evanston, Illinois, 1991. pp.157-161

19

sistemuri Tvalsazrisi eyrdnoba postulats, rom sagareo politikis

analizi realurad hkveTs ori disciplinis, saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis

da politologiis sazRvrebs da mxedvelobaSi iRebs, rogorc

saerTaSoriso, aseve Sidapolitikur procesebs, romelTa farglebSic

xorcieldeba Sesabamisi informaciis gadamuSaveba da gadawyvetilebis

miReba.

sistemuri analizis oponentebis mtkicebiT, romlebic exmianebian

Tavis droze bihevioristuli kvlevebisadmi gamoTqmul kritikas, sistemuri

analizi daiyvaneba raodenobriv sidideebze da Tavs aridebs politikuri

cxovrebis abstraqciebs (Bull, 1966). Tumca aqve gvinda avRniSnoT, rom

politikuri procesebis sistemuri kvleva, Cveni rwmeniT, pirvel rigSi,

warmoadgens, am procesebs Soris arsebul mizez-Sedegobriv kavSirebze

mkvlevaris Sexedulebis warmodgenis xerxs. amave dros, sistemuri

analizisaTvis ar aris ucxo ganzogadoebuli kategoriebiT apelireba.

1974 w. riCard hoferbertma SeimuSava politikuri procesis

konceptualuri CarCo, sadac gatarebuli politikis Sedegebi

warmodgenilia damokidebuli cvladebis saxiT da ganixileba, rogorc

istoriul-geografiuli da socialur-ekonomikuri pirobebis funqcia

(Hofferbert, 1974, citirebulia: Sabatier, 1991, pp. 273-285). aRniSnuli midgoma

mniSvnelovania im kuTxiT, rom Sidapolitikuri procesebis kvlevas igi

warmarTavs sazogadoebaTmcodneobis dargTaSorisi Seswavlis

TvalsazrisiT. meore mxriv, masSi ar aris gaxsnili saxelisuflebo

institutebis qcevis Sida meqanizmebi, iseve rogorc politikis Sedegebis

ukuqmedeba mocemul faqtorebze.

jon kingdomis mier Camoyalibebuli midgoma politikis SemuSavebis

procesisadmi aseve mravalaspeqtiania da moicavs sam `nakads~: 1. problemaTa

nakads; 2. politikuri analizis nakads; da 3. Tavad politikur nakads

(Kingdom, 1984, citirebulia: Sabatier, 1991, pp. 278-279 ). kingdomis Tanaxmad,

mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi politikaSi xorcieldeba maSin rodesac samive

nakadi erTdroulad iyris Tavs. kingdomis midgoma, iTvaliswinebs ra

20

politikuri procesis mraval gareSe faqtors, farToa da scdeba

institucionalizmis Tu individualuri subieqtivizmis calsaxa

Tvalsazrisebs. Tumca, kingdomis mimarT gamoTqmuli ZiriTadi pretenzia

mdgomareobs im pirobebis ganusazRvrelobaSi, rodesac adgili aqvs

aRniSnuli samive nakadis Tanxvedras.

sabatieris mier SemoTavazebuli Sidapolitikuri procesis analizis

konceptualuri CarCo aerTianebs zemoT moyvanili midgomebis bevr

elements. politikis cvlilebas garkveuli drois periodSi igi ganixilavs

rogorc faqtorebis sami simravlis -- metoqe koaliciebis urTierTqmedebis,

gareSe cvlilebebis da stabiluri sistemuri parametrebis -- funqcias.

dinamiuri da stabiluri elementebis Serwyma niSandoblivia sabatieris

analizisTvis (Sabatier, 1991, pp. 279-280).

sagareo politikis sistemuri analizis erT-erTi pirveli mcdeloba

ganxorcielebulia israelis magaliTze maikl brexeris mier (Brecher, 1972),

romlis mier SemoTavazebuli sqema iTvaliswinebs: sagareo politikis

operaciul garemos, fsiqologiur garemos (politikuri elitis midgomebsa

da gareSe samyaros xatebs), gadawyvetilebis miRebis process da saboloo

Sedegebs. brexeris sistema kompleqsuri formiT warmoadgens erTi

saxelmwifos sagareo politikis funqcionirebis sxvadasxva etaps, Tumca

masSi ar Cans TiToeuli etapisaTvis gamoyofili faqtorebis

urTierTqmedebis pirobebi. amave dros, brexeris sqema gamoyofs zogad

maxasiaTeblebs, romelTa dadgenac arsebiTi unda iyos sagareo politikis

sistemuri warmodgenis nebismieri mcdelobisaTvis.

aRniSnuli analizis xerxebi politikuri procesis ueWvelad

mravalfaqtorian suraTs warmoaCens, magram maTSi ar aris naCvenebi

gamoyofili faqtorebis mimarTeba politikuri procesis etapebTan, Tu ra

funqcias asruleben konkretuli faqtorebi politikuri procesis

sxvadasxva etapze da rogoria korelacia TviT am etapebs Soris. aRniSnul

midgomebSi, aseve naklebi yuradReba eqceva TviT politikuri procesis

Sedegebsa da maT ukuqmedebas aRniSnul faqtorebze.

21

aRniSnuli mosazrebebis gaTvaliswinebiT, Cveni kvlevis miznebisaTvis

mizanSewonilad migvaCnia gamoviyenoT sagareo politikis sistemuri

analizis midgoma, romelic sakmaod farTo da moqnilia, raTa moicvas is

mravalganzomilebiani procesebi, romlebic monawileoben sagareo

politikis formirebaSi.

1.3 sagareo politikis sistemuri analizi

1.3.1 sagareo politikis sistemis konceptualuri da operaciuli

gansazRvreba

sistemuri analizis erT-erTi fuZemdeblis devid istonis

daxasiaTebiT, `politikuri sistema warmoadgens urTierTqmedebebs,

romelTa meSveobiTac xdeba Rirebulebebis avtoritetuli mikuTvneba

sazogadoebisadmi~ (Easton, 1979, p.21). Tuki politikuri sistemis istoniseul

definicias ganvavrcobT sagareo politikis sistemisaTvis, SegviZlia

vTqvaT, rom sagareo politikis sistemis urTierqmedebebis Sedegad xdeba

misTvis damaxasiaTebeli Rirebulebebis proecireba gareSe sazogadoebriv

sistemaze. amave dros, Tu Sidapolitikuri sistemis mier SemuSavebuli

Rirebulebebi met-naklebad savaldebuloa mocemuli saxelmwifos

sazogadoebisaTvis, amgvari valdebuleba ar arsebobs im gareSe

sazogadoebisaTvis, romelzec mimarTulia Sesabamisi sagareo politika.

amgvarad, konceptualur doneze, sagareo politikis sistemas Cven

davaxasiaTebdiT, rogorc urTierTqmedebebis erTobliobas, romelTa

meSveobiTac xdeba Rirebulebebis ara-aucilebeli mikuTvneba mocemuli

sistemis gareT mdebare sazogadoebisadmi. operaciul doneze, sagareo

poltikis sistema warmodgenilia, rogorc droiTi da sivrciTi

urTierTqmedebebis erToblioba, romelic funqcionirebs Sesabamis garemoSi

da reagirebs am garemosaTvis damaxasiaTebel Sesabamis parametrebze da maT

Semadgenel cvladebze. amgvari dinamiuri sistema tradiciulad Seicavs

sam ZiriTad etaps: Sesavals, process da gamosavals. gamosavalze

miRebuli Sedegebi Tavis mxriv aisaxeba sistemis garemoSi da kvlav

22

gardaiqmneba im Sesaval faqtorebad, romlebzedac reagirebs sistema. amave

dros, sagareo politikis sistemuri warmodgena gulisxmobs Semdegi

debulebebis gaTvaliswinebas: 1. sistema efuZneba parametrebs, romlebic

Sedgeba Sesabamisi cvladebisgan. 2. sistema mocemulia erT mTlianobaSi 3.

sistema asaxavs dinamiur process. 4. sistema funqcionirebs Sesabamis

garemoSi (Clarke, 1989, pp. 27-55).

gamomdinare zemoTqmulidan, sagareo politikis sistemis sqemis

Camoyalibeba moiTxovs Semdegi nabijebis ganxorcielebas: 1. sistemis

ganmsazRvreli parametrebis da cvladebis gamoyofis kriteriumebis

dadgena; 2. sistemis ganmsazRvreli parametrebis da cvladebis gamoyofa; 3.

gamoyofil parametrebs Soris arsebuli mimarTebebis dadgena; 4. sistemasa

da misi funqcionirebis garemos Soris urTierTqmedebis dinamikis Cveneba.

1.3.2 sagareo politikis sistemis parametrebi da cvladebi

sistemis parametrebis da cvladebis gamoyofis kriteriumebi

sagareo politikis sistemis parametrebis da cvladebis

gansazRvrisas, Cven amovdivarT Semdegi kriteriumebidan: 1. sistema

funqcionirebs garkveuli parametrebis mixedviT, rac ganapirobebs sistemis

funqcionirebis reJimebs. 2. vinaidan sagareo politikis sistemas Cven

ganvixilavT, rogorc drois mocemul monakveTSi moqmed dinamiur sistemas,

mis parametrebad miviCnevT faqtorebs (procesebs), romlebic drois

mocemul monakveTSi gamoirCevian SedarebiTi mdgradobiT da zemoqmedeben

sistemaze. 3. sistemis cvladebad miviCnevT faqtorebs (movlenebs), romlebic

drois mocemul monakveTSi gamoirCevian SedarebiTi dinamiurobiT da

gansazRvraven sistemis parametrebis Sinaarss. 3. sistemis Semadgeneli

cvladis, rogorc sistemis funqcionirebis reJimis ganmsazRvreli

parametris Semadgeneli nawilis, arsebiTi Secvla iwvevs sistemis

gamosavalze miRebuli Sedegebis arsebiT Secvlas.

sagareo politikis sistemis Semadgeneli cvladebis daxasiaTeba

1. politikur sistemaze garemos zemoqmedebis struqturirebis mizniT

literaturaSi miRebulia sistemis `Sesavali~ faqtorebis cneba. devid

23

istonis ganmartebiT, Sesavali faqtorebi warmoadgenen `jamur cvladebs,~

romlebSic koncentrirebuli saxiT asaxulia sistemis operirebisaTvis

arsebiTi yvela gareSe movlena. istoni Sesaval faqtorebs or farTo

kategoriaSi -- moTxovnaTa faqtorebis (demands) da mxardaWeris faqtorebis

(support) kategoriaSi aerTianebs, romelTa cvalebadobis Sedegad, garemos

movlenebi `gadaecema~ politikur sistemas (Easton, 1979, pp.27-128).

sistemis Sesavali faqtorebis analogiur warmodgenas iZleva maikl

klarkic. sistemis Sesavalze arsebul mkafiod gamokveTil faqtorebs

klarki axasiaTebs, rogorc garkveul zewolas gadawyvetilebis mimRebi

pirebis mimarT, xolo naklebad gamokveTili faqtorebs, - rogorc

gadawyvetilebis mimRebi pirebis mxardaWeras, an ubralod, rogorc

arsebul tradicias (Clark,1989, pp.27-55).

veTanxmebiT ra garemos faqtorebis ZiriTad diqotomias, migvaCnia, rom

sistemis Sesaval stadiaze faqtorebis dayofa `moTxovnebis~ da

`mxardaWeris~ kategoriebad naadrevia. Sesavali faqtorebi amgvar

kategoriebad SeiZleba Camoyalibdnen mxolod mas Semdeg rac isini

urTierTqmedebaSi Sevlen politikuri sistemis operirebis meore etapis,

gadawyvetilebis miRebis etapis, faqtorebTan, anu mxolod mas Semdeg rac

isini urTierTqmedebaSi Sevlen politikur gadawyvetilebebze

pasuxismgebel biurokratiul da politikur aparatTan da gaivlian

interpretirebisa da Sefasebis process. xolo, manam sanam aRniSnuli

faqtorebi ar daeqvemdebarebian legitimuri biurokratiuli da politikuri

xasiaTis formalur Tu araformalur damuSavebas, migvaCnia, rom maTi

daxasiaTeba ufro marTebuli iqneboda SedarebiT `nedli~ stimuli-

cvladebis saxiT. Sesabamisad, gamovyofdiT ori tipis cvladebs:

cvladebi, romlebic Sesaval etapzeve garkveuli xarisxiT orientacias

ucvlian politikur sistemas da ubiZgeben mas Tvisobrivad axali tipis

Sedegebis miRebisaken; da cvladebi, romlebic ar ubiZgeben sistemas amgvari

qmedebisaken. pirveli tipis, ase vTqvaT, `radikaluri~ cvladebi,

bunebrivia, xasiaTdebian gansxvavebuli intensivobiT, sadac zemoqmedeba

24

SeiZleba iyos sruliad erTmniSvnelovani da interpretirebis mxolod

umniSvnelo arCevans tovebdes, an sadac miuxedavad garkveuli zewolisa,

interpretirebis SesaZleblobebi sakmaod farToa. meore tipis, ase vTqvaT,

`liberaluri~ cvladebi ar ubiZgeben sistemas Tvisobrivad axali

rezultatebisken da mas saSualebas aZleven met-naklebad igive `reJimSi~

gaagrZelos funqcionireba. Tavisi intensivobiT liberaluri cvladebi

aseve SeiZleba gansxvavdebodnen, imis da mixedviT, Tu ra xarisxiT iZlevian

isini arsebuli reJimis SenarCunebis saSualebas.

2. sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze devs faqtorebi,

romlebic aseve SeiZleba davaxasiaToT, rogorc `jamuri cvladebi,~

romlebSic koncentrirebuli saxiT asaxulia sistemis Sida procesis

dasrulebisas miRweuli Sedegebi. literaturaSi am faqtorebs ZiriTadad

axasiaTeben, rogorc saerTaSoriso asparezze saxelmwifoTa qmedebebs da

xSirad ugulebelyofen maT kavSirs im politikur procesebTan, romlebic

uSualod ganapirobeben gadawyvetilebis miRebis etaps; an dahyavT isini

saxelmwifo qmedebaTa simravleze, romlis klasifikacia ar efuZneba raime

erTian kriteriumebs da xSirad urTierTgadamfaravia.

gvinda davazustoT, rom sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze,

rogorc gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesis uSualod momdevno etapze,

pirvel rigSi, devs sistemis moqmedebis Sedegad miRebuli gadawyvetilebebi,

romlebic SeiZleba `realizebuli~ iyvnen Sesabimisi dokumentebis saxiT.

gamosavali etapis am pirvel dones Cven vuwodebT `deklaraciul~ dones da

mas mivakuTvnebT im gadawyvetilebebs, romlebic xorcieldeba aRweriTi,

brZanebiTi, instruqciuli, protokoluri, Tu sakuTriv deklaraciuli

dokumentebis saxiT. sistemis winare etapebis zemoqmedebis Sedegad,

deklaraciuli donis Sedegebs, SesaZlebelia mohyves Semdgomi, ufro

intensiuri ZalisxmeviT miRweuli `operaciuli donis~ Sedegebi.

operaciul SedegTa kategoriaSi Cven vaerTianebT miRebuli

gadawyvetilebebis Sesabamis qmedebebs, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, SeiZleba

iyos diplomatiur-politikuri, ekonomikuri Tu samxedro xasiaTis. sistemis

funqcionirebis deklaraciul da operaciul Sedegebs Soris ar aris

25

calsaxa damokidebuleba. realuri qmedeba uSualod SeiZleba mxolod

garkveuli tipis gadawyvetilebebs mosdevdes, romlebic, Tavis mxriv,

sistemaze `radikaluri~ cvladebis zemoqmedebis Sedegs unda

warmoadgendnen. deklaraciuli gadawyvetilebebis didi nawili ar

saWiroebs raime qmedebis Sesrulebas (magaliTad, aRweriTi an sakuTriv

deklaraciuli tipis dokumentebi). am tipis gadawyvetilebebs

literaturaSi `TviT-ganxorcielebad~ gadawyvetilebebsac uwodeben (Clark,

Smith, 1989, p. 170). Tumca, am tipis gadawyvetilebebis gavlena saerTaSoriso

sistemaze, ra Tqma unda, SeiZleba Zalze Zlieri iyos. am or zRvrul

SesaZleblobas Soris SeiZleba arsebobdes gadawyvetilebebisa da

Sesabamisi qmedebebis urTierTmimarTebaTa mravalricxovani variaciebi,

romlebic Tanmimdevrulobis xarisxis mixedviT yoveli konkretuli

SemTxvevisTvis SeiZleba gansxvavebuli iyos. meore mxriv, arsebobs aseve

garkveuli Seusabamobis problema politikosebis mier miRebul

gadawyvetilebebsa da maT ganxorcielebas Soris, rasac literaturaSi

`Canacvlebis~ movlenasac uwodeben (Clark, Smith, 1989, pp. 163-183). aq

aRsaniSnavia is garemoeba, rom swored operaciuli Sedegebi, yvelaze

TvalnaTliv warmoaCenen saxelmwifos qcevas saerTaSoriso sistemis

konteqstSi, da swored isini ganapirobeben yvelaze mkafiod sxva

saxelmwifoTa Sesabamis reagirebas. amdenad, sagareo politikis kvlevaSi

urTierTmimarTebas deklaraciul da operaciul Sedegebs Soris didi

mniSvneloba unda eniWebodes.

3. sistemis Sesavalsa da gamosavals Soris devs gadawyvetilebebis miRebis

rTuli procesi, romelsac literaturaSi xSirad `Sav yuTs~ uwodeben.

maikl klarki gvTavazobs gadawyvetilebebis miRebis procesis Semdeg

sqematur etapebs: pirvel etapze adgili aqvs Sesavalze arsebuli

faqtorebis interpretacias, romlis procesSic erTmeneTTan

urTierTqmedeben sistemis biurokratiuli manqana da individualuri

fsiqologiuri faqtorebi. meore etapze, amgvarad interpretirebuli

faqtorebi ukve yalibdeba sagareo politikis sakiTxebad, romelTac

26

gadawyvetilebis mimRebi pirebisTvis garkveuli politikuri datvirTva

aqvT. daskvniT etapze, gamokveTili sakiTxebi, kvlav gaivlian ra adaptacias

sistemis biurokratiul da fsiqologiur qselSi, yalibdebian, maqsimum,

rogorc sagareo politikis miznebi da, minimum, rogorc sakiTxebi,

romlebic ar moiTxovs raime reagirebas.

zogadad viziarebT ra klarkis mier gamoyofil etapebs, migvaCnia,

rom gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesze, garda biurokratiuli da

fsiqologiuri faqtorebisa, zegavlenas axdens mTeli wyeba faqtorebisa,

romlebic saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistemis struqturiT arian

ganpirobebulni. amave dros, sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis

ganxilvisas, amosaval postulatad miviCnevT, rom sagareo politikaze

pasuxismgebeli aparati, masze zemoqmedebis yvela faqtoris

gaTvaliswinebiT, gadawyvetilebis miRebisas xelmZRvanelobs ZiriTadi

orientiriT -- qveynis erovnuli interesebiT. erovnuli interesebis cnebisa

da misi sxvadasxva tipebis literaturaSi arsebuli analizis

gaTvaliswinebiT (macaberiZe, 1992, gv.17-30; oTinaSvili, 2002, gv.2-25; rondeli,

1996, gv. 90), ganzogadoebuli formiT CamovayalibebT, rom saxelmwifos

erovnuli interesebi moicavs misi sicocxlisunarionobis uzrunvelyofis

grZel- Tu moklevadian amocanebs, romlebic yoveli mocemuli istoriuli

periodisaTvis ganisazRvreba arsebuli saerTaSoriso sistemisa da

saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistemis mdgomareobiT. amdenad, SeiZleba

iTqvas, rom rogorc sagareo politikis SemuSavebis ZiriTadi orientiri,

erovnuli interesebi ganisazRvreba swored rom igive faqtorebiT,

romlebic devs sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze, Tumca, rogorc

idealuri kategoria, naklebad eqvemdebareba biurokratiul Tu

fsiqologiur zegavlenas. amave dros, sasicocxlo mniSvnelobis,

grZelvadian erovnul interesebs ganvixilavT, rogorc sistemis SedarebiT

mdgrad parametrebs, romelTac gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba eniWebaT

sistemis Sesaval etapze. meorexarisxovan da moklevadian erovnul

interesebs ganvixilavT, rogorc sistemis cvladebs, romlebic

27

gansakuTrebiT qmediTia sistemis Sualeduri, gadawyvetilebis miRebis

etapze.

amgvarad, sagareo politikis formirebis da ganxorcielebis procesi

Semdegi gamartivebuli sqemis saxiT SegviZlia warmovadginoT:

garemo

Sesavali

erovnuli interesebi

procesi

garemo

gamosavali

1. radikaluri cvladebi

2. Sualeduri cvladebi

3.liberaluri cvladebi

1. interpretacia

2.sakiTxebis gamokveTa

3. gadawyvetilebis miReba

1. deklaraciuli Sedegebi

2. Sualeduri Sedegebi

3. operaciuli Sedegebi

1.3.3 sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis garemo

politikuri sistemis garemosTan urTierTqmedebis analizisas, xSirad

apelireben e.w. `ekvilibriumis~ modeliT, romlis Tanaxmad, politikuri

sistema, reagirebs ra garemos madestabilizirebel zegavlenaze, iRwvis

wonasworobis SesanarCuneblad. amgvarad, sistemis realuri amocana

gagebulia, rogorc stabiluri garemos SenarCuneba. Cven ver daveTanxmebiT

sistemisa da garemos urTierTqmedebis amgvar interpretacias. erTi mxriv,

sistemis mizani SeiZleba iyos arsebuli wonasworobis rReva, xolo, meore

mxriv, politikur sistema, da kerZod sagareo politikis sistema, ara

mxolod reagirebs garemos gareSe stimulebze, aramed SeuZlia TviTonac

moaxdinos garemoze zemoqmedeba, raTa Tavisi miznebis Sesabamisad

gardaqmnas misTvis arasasurveli gareSe faqtorebi.

da mainc, ramdenad gansazRvravs garemo sagareo politikis

formirebas da mis mimarTulebas?

saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa disciplinaSi gamokveTilia

deterministuli Tvalsazrisi, romlis Tanaxmad, sagareo politika

mTlianad ganisazRvreba arsebuli saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa garemoTi.

es Tvalsazrisi aerTianebs ZalTa balansis, saerTaSoriso ekonomikur

28

urTierTobebis da e.w. `damokidebulebis~ Teoriebs. ra Tqma unda, Znelia

imis uaryofa, rom bevr SemTxvevaSi saxelmwifs sagareo politika

ganisazRvreba arsebuli globaluri politikuri da ekonomikuri

urTierTmimarTebebiT. amave dros, rogorc aRniSnaven Fharold da

margareT sprautebi, marTalia sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli pirebi

SezRudulni arian TavianT arCevanSi, maTi gadawyvetilebebi ar aris

absoluturad determinirebuli gareSe struqturebis mier (Sprout, 1965,

citirebulia: Clark, White, 1989, p.98). avtorebi aRniSnaven garkveuli

Sualeduri mdgomareobebis amsaxvel Tvalsazrisebs, maT Soris: 1. `garemos

albaTobis~ Tvalsazriss, romlis Tanaxmad, garemo gansazRvravs garkveuli

politikuri Sedegebis miRebis albaTobas; da 2. `kognituri biheviorizmis~

Tvalsazriss, romlis Tanaxmad, gadawyvetilebis mimReb pirebs, maT mier

garemos aRqmis Sesabamisad, gadawyvetilebis miRebis sakmao Tavisufleba

aqvT. krisToper ferandsi garemosa da sagareo politikas Soris

damokidebulebis Taobaze arsebul Tvalsazrisebs Tavs uyris sqematuri

samkuTxedis saxiT, romlis wverebzec ganlagebulia: `Tavisufali arCevani,~

`kognituri determinizmi~ da `eqstra-struqturuli determinizmi~ da

romelic saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros mkvlevaris Tvalsazrisi imis da

mixedviT, Tu rogoria misi pozicia am sami midgomis mimarT (Farrands, 1989, p.

99).

sisitemuri analizis TvalsazrisiT, rogorc avRniSneT, garemo

gansazRvravs sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebas, imdenad

ramdenadac misi faqtorebi warmoadgenen sistemis Sesavalze arsebul

faqtorebs (parametrebsa da cvladebs), xolo sistemis gamosavalze

miRebuli faqtorebi (Sedegebi) kvlav ubrundebian garemos wiaRs.

arsebobs TviT garemos analizisa da misi kategorizaciis

sxvadasxva midgomebic.

devid istonis Tanaxmad, politikuri sistemis garemo moicavs `Sida-

sazogadoebriv~ da `gare-sazogadoebriv~ garemos. `Sida-sazogadoebrivi~

garemo Seicavs ekologiur, biologiur, pirovnebaTa da socialur

29

sistemebs. `gare-sazogadoebrivi~ garemo Seicavs yvela im sistemas, romelic

mocemuli sazogadoebis gareT Zevs, warmoadgens saerTaSoriso

`zesazogadoebis~ funqcionalur segmentebs da aerTianebs: saerTaSoriso

politikur sistemas, saerTaSoriso ekologiur sistemas da saerTaSoriso

socialur sistemas. Tavis mxriv, TviToeuli gamoyofili sistema

calkeuli qvesistemebisagan Sedgeba. istonis ganmartebiT, garemos es ori

kategoria, zemoqmedebs ra politikuri sistemis arsebul mdgomareobaze,

mas SeiZleba `stresis~ mdgomareobaSi aqcevdes, Tumca stresis ukugdeba,

amave dros, sistemis Tanamavali Tvisebacaa (Easton, 1979, p..22-25). garemos

istoniseuli daxasiaTeba exmaureba zemoxsenebul `ekvilibriumis~ models,

sadac wina planze wamoweulia `Widili~ sistemasa da garemos Soris.

Tumca, vTvliT, rom garemos egzom farTo warmodgena mouxerxebelia

politikuri sistemis romelime konkretuli tipis, maT Soris sagareo

politikis sistemis, analizis praqtikuli miznebisaTvis.

miRebulia agreTve saerTaSoriso da adgilobrivi garemos gamoyofa,

sadac ZiriTad ganmasxvavebel niSnad xelisuflebis koncentraciis

sxvadasxva xarisxia miCneuli. zemoT aRniSnuli fsiqologiuri faqtorebis

gaTvaliswinebiT, aseve miRebulia diqotomia, sadac erTi mxriv, gamoyofen

fsiqologiur garemos, xolo, meore mxriv, operaciul garemos.

fsiqologiuri garemo yalibdeba gadawyvetilebis mimRebi pirebis mier maT

irgvliv arsebuli samyaros aRqmis Sesabamisad, xolo operaciuli garemo,

gulisxmobs ra politikis obieqtur samyaros, Tavis mxriv Seicavs garemoTa

iseT saxeobebs, rogoricaa: saxelmwifos socialuri struqtura da

kultura, Sida ekonomikuri garemo, fizikuri garemo, da bolos,

saerTaSoriso sistemis struqtura, rogorc urTierTvaldebulebaTa

erToblioba. 1

garemos amgvari mravlobiTi tipebis gamoyofa xSirad ar iZleva maTi

erTmaneTisagan mkafio gamijvnis saSualebas, radganac maTi Tvisobrivi

1 sagareo politikis garemos tipebis klasifikaciebis mimoxilva ixileT:Farrands C., The Context of Foreign Policy Systems: Environment and Structure, in Clarke M., White, B., Understanding Foreign Policy, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1989, pp. 84-107.

30

maxasiaTeblebi sakmaod urTierTgadamfaravia. analizis praqtikuli

miznebidan gamomdinare, mizanSewonilad migvaCnia sagareo politikis

sistemis funqcionirebis erTiani garemos gamartivebuli modelis

warmodgena, romlis SemadgenlobaSic Seva gansxvavebuli faqtorebis

urTierTqmedebaze dafuZnebuli qvesistemebi. uxeSad gamovyofT sam aseT

qvesistemas: 1. saerTaSoriso sistemas, romlis farglebSic funqcionirebs

rogorc sagareo politikis ganmaxorcielebeli `subieqti~ saxelmwifo,

aseve aRniSnuli sagareo politikis `obieqti~ saxelmwifo. 2. `subieqti~

saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema. 3. `obieqti~ saxelmwifos

Sidapolitikuri sistema da sagareo politikis orientacia. rogorc zemoT

avRniSneT, am qvesistemebis damaxasiaTebeli is faqtorebi, romlebic drois

mocemul monakveTSi ar eqvemdebarebian mniSvnelovan cvlilebas, ganxiluli

iqneba rogorc garemos `mudmivi~ parametrebi. aRniSnuli parametrebi,

drois mocemuli monakveTisaTvis, Tavisi Sinaarsobrivi datvirTviT

gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJimebs. xolo

garemos is faqtorebi, romlebic drois mocemul monakveTSi meti

cvalebadobiT xasiaTdebian da TavianT erTobliobaSi Seadgenen Sesabamis

parametrebs, ganxiluli iqneba, rogorc garemos cvladebi, romlebic

pirdapir an arapirdapir zemoqmedeben sagareo politikis sistemaze.

rogorc avRniSneT, e.w. `radikaluri~ cvladebi ubiZgeben sistemas

Tvisobrivad axali Sedegebis miRebisaken, xolo `liberaluri~ cvladebi

saSualebas aZleven sistemas met-naklebad Cveul `reJimSi~ ganagrZos

muSaoba.

1.3.3.1 saerTaSoriso sistema

Cveni modelis Tanaxmad, sagareo politikis sistemis garemos

pirobiTad pirvel umniSvnelovanes Sres warmoadgens saerTaSoriso sistema.

literaturaSi aRiniSneba saerTaSoriso sistemis mravalnairi

maxasiaTeblebi, romlebic sruliad gansxvavebul kriteriumebs efuZneba.

31

magaliTad, qvinsi raiti gamoyofs eqvs analitikuri tipis

maxasiaTebels, romelic gansazRvravs saerTaSoriso aqtorebis

urTierTmimarTebebs saerTaSoriso sivrceSi. es maxasiaTeblebia:

ekonomikuri ganviTarebis xarisxi; politikuri decentralizaciis xarisxi;

siZlieris xarisxi; saerTaSoriso vaWrobisa da komunikaciis ganviTarebis

xarisxi; teqnologiuri ganviTarebis xarisxi; da resursebis misawvdomobis

xarisxi (citirebulia: Rummel, 1979). r. rumeli saerTaSoriso sistemas, an

misi TqmiT, saerTaSoriso sazogadoebas, warmoadgens Semdeg Tvisebebze

dayrdnobiT: -- saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba warmoadgens konfliqtisa da

Zalauflebis Tanafardobas; -- saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba emyareba gacvliT

urTierTobebs; -- saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba imarTeba libertaruli

politikuri zesistemis meSveobiT (ibid). SeiZleba iTqvas, rom rogorc

raitis aseve rumelis mier gamoyofili maxasiaTeblebi faqtiurad

daiyvaneba konfliqtisa da TanamSromlobis maxasiaTeblebze. gamokveTilia

saerTaSoriso sistemis daxasiaTebis sxva aqcentebic. kerZod, raimon aroni

gvTavazobs saerTaSoriso sistemis iseT ZiriTad Tvisebas, rogoricaa

samxedro Zalis gamoyenebis legitimuroba (gansxvavebiT saxelmwifos Sida

sistemisagan, sadac Zalis gamoyeneba TiTqosda aralegitimuria) (Aron, 1967,

citirebulia: Rummel, 1979). arsebobs Tvalsazrisic, romelic saerTaSoriso

sistemas qaoturobis niSniT axasiaTebs. kerZod, stenli hofmani

saerTaSoriso sistemas, gansxvavebiT Sidapolitikuri sistemisagan,

warmoadgens rogorc maRali ganusazRvrelobis xarisxis mqone sivrces

(Hoffmann, 1965, citirebulia: ibid).

migvaCnia, rom miuxedavad kriteriumebis mravalferovnebisa,

aRniSnuli saerTaSoriso sistemis maxasiaTeblebi SeiZleba dajgufdes

Semdegi wyvili kategoriebis mixedviT: mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigebloba,

stabiluroba-arastabiluroba da integracia-izolacia. aRniSnuli

maxasiaTeblebi erTmaneTTan dakavSirebulni arian, magram saerTaSoriso

sistemas gansxvavebuli aspeqtebiT warmoadgenen. ganvixiloT TiToeuli

maxasiaTebeli da is argumentebi, romelTac daveyrdeniT maTi gamoyofisas.

32

mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigebloba. aRniSnuli maxasiaTeblebis

gamoyofa efuZneba mtkicebas, rom saerTaSoriso sistemaSi gamoikveTeba

rogorc anarqiis, aseve saerTaSoriso sazogadoebisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli

tendenciebi. moviyvanoT aRniSnuli mtkicebis orive mxaris damasabuTebeli

argumentebi.

pirveli, saxelmwifoTaSoriso urTierTobebSi ar arsebobs erTiani

mmarTveli da ganmsjeli organo, an koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis globaluri

sistema, rogorc es uzrunvelyofilia calkeuli saxelmwifos farglebSi

saxelmwifo aparatis mier. amdenad, saerTaSoriso sistema anarqiuli

sistemaa, sadac dominirebs Zala da avtoriteti. meore, wesrigis da

konsensusis miRwevas saerTaSoriso sistemaSi xels uSlis is

dapirispirebac, romelic imTaviTve arsebobs status qvosa da cvlilebis

SesaZleblobas Soris. rogorc aRniSnavs devid aleni, msoflioSi

arsebobs mudmivi konfrontacia imaT Soris vinc dainteresebulia

cvlilebebi Seitanos arsebul sistemaSi da visi interesebic saukeTesod

aris daculi arsebuli mdgomareobiT (Allen, 1989, p. 81). meore mxriv, ra Tqma

unda, arsebobs rigi faqtorebisa, romlebic awesrigebs saxelmwifoTa

qcevas saerTaSoriso sistemaSi. pirvel rigSi, es aris evropuli qveynebis

mier SemuSevebuli diplomatiuri protokolis wesebi, romlebic amartivebs

dialogs sxvadasxva kulturuli tradiciebis mqone saxelmwifoebs Soris

(ibid, p. 81). meore, saxelmwifoebi ZiriTadad icaven saerTaSoriso samarTlis

ZiriTad principebsa da normebs, romlebic erTi mxriv, maT aniWebs

suverenuli Tanasworobis uflebas, xolo meore mxriv, akisrebs konkretul

valdebulebebs (aleqsiZe, 2001, gv. 26-52). mesame, globaluri masStabis

koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis sistemis ararsebobis pirobebSi, uZlieresi

saxelmwifoebi, rogorc globalur aseve regionalur doneze, mniSvnelovan

rols TamaSoben damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa sistemis warmarTvaSi

(rondeli, 1996, gv. 222). neorealizmi globalur struqturaSi wamyvan

adgils swored saxelmwifoTa aliansebs aniWebs, romelTa farglebSic

aRebuli valdebulebebis darRveva saxelmwifoebs Zvirad ujdeba (Farrands,

33

1989, p.95). meoTxe, saerTaSoriso sistemis mowesrigebulobis mniSvnelovani

faqtoria zemoaRniSnul aliansebSi gamokveTili ierarqia, romlis mTavari

ganmsazRvreli principi kvlav saxelmwifo Zlierebaa (Smith, 1989, pp. 185-212).

arsebobs Sexedulebac, romlis Tanaxmad dRevandel msoflioSi imdeni

ierarqiuli struqturaa, ramdeni saerTaSoriso sakiTxic arsebobs (Allen,

1989, p. 69). magaliTad, aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivnis moadgile politikis

sakiTxebSi piter tarnofi werda: "rodesac saqme gvaqvs aSS-sTvis

umniSvnelovanes politikur da ekonomikur sakiTxebTan, yovel mocemul

SemTxvevaSi, Cven sxvadasxva qveynebi gviWeren mxars da sxvadasxva qveynebi

gamodian Cvens winaaRmdeg" (Tarnoff, 1996, pp 5-8). mexuTe, rogorc samTavrobo,

aseve arasamTavrobo saerTaSoriso organizaciebis da transnacionaluri

kompaniebis gazrdili roli asaxavs Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso sistemis

swrafvas mowesrigebulobisken, amave dros, aRniSnuli saerTaSoriso

struqturebi qmnian e.w. `inteleqtualur infrastruqturas,~ romelic

xelmisawvdomi xdeba saerTaSoriso sistemis yvela monawilisaTvis (Farrands,

1989, p. 95). meeqvse, calkeuli saxelmwifoebi, saxelmwifoTa aliansebi da

saerTaSoriso organizaciebi Seadgenen erTian globalur struqturas,

romelic aRniSnuli komponentebiTa da maT Soris arsebuli kavSirebiT,

albaT, saerTaSoriso sistemis mowesrigebulobis mTavari ganmsazRvreli

faqtoria.

miuxedavad imisa, rom saerTaSoriso sistemis mowesrigebulobis

sasargeblo argumentebi, erTi SexedviT, ufro mravalricxovania, ver

vityodiT, rom Tanamedrove etapze, aRniSnuli wyvili maxasiaTeblebi

asimetriulia, Tumca savaraudoa, rom msoflio ganviTarebis samomavlo

tendencia, swored rom mowesrigebulobis mimarTulebiT warimarTos.

stabiluroba-arastabiluroba. mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigeblobis

maxasiaTeblebi mWidrod ukavSirdeba saerTaSoriso sistemis stabiluroba-

arastabilurobis maxasiaTeblebs, romlebic yvelaze mkafiod realizmis

ZalTa balansis koncefciaSi gamoikveTeba. h. morgenTaus TqmiT, `ZalTa

wonasworoba da misi SenarCunebisken mimarTuli politika suverenul

34

saxelmwifoTa sazogadoebaSi aris ara mxolod gardauvali, aramed

arsebiTi mastabilizirebuli faqtori~ (Morgenthau, 1948, p. 161.). Tu ramdenad

aris ZalTa wonasworobisaken mimarTuli politika stabilizaciis faqtori

sakamaTo sakiTxia, vinaidan yovel mocemul etapze arsebuli ZalTa balansi

imTaviTve Seicavs cvlilebisa da konfrontaciis potencials. Tanamedrove

politikosebi bolo dros ukve uaryofen msoflioSi gavlenis sferoebis

danawilebisken swrafvas (solana, 1997). magram miuxedavad aRniSnuli

Tvalsazrisisa, ZalTa balansis pozicias jer kidev mniSvnelovani adgili

uWiravs rogorc literaturaSi, aseve realur saxelmwifoTaSoriso

urTierTobebSi. f. Fhartmanis TqmiT, dRevandel `decentralizebul~

saerTaSoriso sistemaSi TiToeuli saxelmwifo dgas e.w. `Zalis problemis~

winaSe, sadac Zalismieri agresia sruliad dasaSvebi movlenaa (Hartman, 1994,

p. 3).

politikuri realizmis erT-erTi warmomadgenlis r. aronis azriT,

yvelaze ufro stabiluri hegemonuri tipis saerTaSoriso sistemaa, sadac

Fhegemoni saxelmwifo urigdeba patara qveynebis arsebobas da `ar STanTqavs

maT~ (Aron, 1968, p.100,). dRevandel birTvul epoqaSi damkvidrda Sexedulebac,

rom bipolaruli sistema, misTvis damaxasiaTebeli Zlieri Sekavebis

meqanizmebiT, ufro stabiluria vidre nebismieri multipolaruli sistema.

Tumca aseve unda aRiniSnos rom Tanamedrove etapze, bipolaruli sistemis

rRvevisa da saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebis ganmtkicebasTan erTad, sul

ufro izrdeba realizmis Zalismieri logikisadmi kritikuli

damokidebuleba da swrafva erTiani, usafrTxo, egalitaruli

sivrceebisadmi.

integracia-izolacia. miuxedavad zemoxsenebuli argumentisa

saerTaSoriso monawileTa erTiani sivrcisken swrafvis Taobaze,

saerTaSoriso sistemis integracia-izolaciis maxasiaTeblebidan, dRes-

dReobiT, wina planze albaT mainc izolaciis maxasiaTebeli unda iyos

wamoweuli, vinaidan saerTaSoriso sistemis ZiriTad struqturul

elementebad kvlav suverenuli saxelmwifoebi rCeba, romlebic

35

axorcieleben individualur sagareo politikas, TavianTi erovnuli

interesebis Sesabamisad.

meore mxriv, msoflioSi sul ufro Rrmavdeba integraciuli

procesebi, romelTa ugulebelyofa SeuZlebelia. mravalganzomilebiani

ekonomikuri, politikuri, socialuri Tu ekologiuri kavSirebi aisaxa

kompleqsuri urTierTdamokidebulebis TeoriaSi (rondeli, 1996, gv. 132-141).

am Teoriis Tanaxmad, susti da Zlieri saxelmwifoebi erTnairad

monawileoben globaluri integraciis procesSi, romelSic erovnuli

usafrTxoebis cneba srulebiT axal datvirTvas iZens, xolo pirvel

planze TanamSromlobis sakiTxebi gamodis. am mimarTebiT, kompleqsuri

urTierTdamokidebulebis Teoriis umniSvnelovanesi elementia

`saerTaSoriso reJimi~, rogorc saxelmwifoTa TanamSromlobis

institucionalizebuli forma, romlis stabilurobac, Tavis mxriv, mis

monawileTa interesebis stabilurobas efuZneba (Goldstein, 2003, pp. 199-207).

ekonomikuri kavSirebis saerTaSoriso sistemaSi, rogorc cnobilia,

gamoyofen dasavleTis, Crdilo-samxreTis da aRmosavleT-dasavleTis

qvesistemebs; da Tumca TiToeuli maTgani efuZneba specifiur savaWro-

safinanso urTierTobebs, isini ar arian erTmaneTisgan izolirebulni

(rondeli, 1996, gv. 157). rogorc aRiniSneba, rac ufro didia

urTierTdamokidebuleba saerTaSoriso sistemis monawileTaA Soris, miT

ufro intensiuria maT Soris urTierTqmedebac. devid aleni saerTaSoriso

urTierTqmedebaTa sam tips gamoyofs (Allen, 1989, pp. 60-83): 1.

samTavrobaTSoriso, romelic gulisxmobs urTierTqmedebas saxelmwifoTa

mTavrobebs Soris. 2. trans-samTavrobo, sadac calkeuli samTavrobo

uwyebebi (saministroebi, departamentebi da a.S.) uSualod urTierTqmedeben

erTmaneTTan garkveuli interesebis Sesabamisad. 3. trans-nacionaluri,

sadac saerTaSoriso monawileni uSualod urTierTqmedeben rogorc

erTmaneTTan, aseve Sesabamisi saxelmwifoebis mTavrobebTan. unda iTqvas,

rom saerTaSoriso sistemis integracia-izolaciis RerZze, integraciis

procesi ar gulisxmobs saxelmwifoTa sagareo politikis SemuSavebis da

36

gatarebis gamartivebas, vinaidan komunikaciis damatebiTi arxebis warmoqmna

damatebiT sirTuleebs warmoSobs.

***********

amgvarad, migvaCnia, rom yovel konkretul SemTxvevaSi, saerTaSoriso

sistemis mdgomareoba SeiZleba daxasiaTebul iqnes im tendenciebis

mixedviT, romlebic warmoiqmneba da cvalebadobs gamoyofili wyvili

maxasiaTeblebis --mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigeblobis, stabiluroba-

arastabilurobis da izolacia-integraciis RerZebze. Sesabamisad,

aRniSnuli maxasiaTeblebi saerTaSoriso sistemas warmoadgenen ori

ZiriTadi qvesistemis saxiT, sadac erTi qvesistema moicavs mouwesrigebel,

arastabilur da gaTiSul samyaros, xolo meore -- mowesrigebul,

stabilur, integraciul principebze agebul samyaros. bunebrivia, realur

samyaroSi, aRniSnuli qvesistemebi ar arseboben sufTa saxiT da

mniSvnelovnad faraven erTmaneTs. amave dros, aRniSnuli wyvili

maxasiaTeblebi da Sesabamisi qvesistemebi gansazRvraven mocemuli

saxelmwifos sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebasac. drois

mocemul periodSi, aRniSnuli maxasiaTeblebi ganapirobeben sagareo

politikis sistemis funqcionirebas, erTi mxriv, mouwesrigebel,

arastabilur da izolacionistur samyaroSi saxelmwifos mier Tavisi

adgilis mosapoveblad da, meore mxriv, mowesrigebul, stabilur,

integraciul samyaroSi saxelmwifos mier Tanasworuflebiani monawileobis

dasamkvidreblad.

saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebi da cvladebi.

saerTaSoriso sistemis im faqtorebis gansazRvrisas, romlebic

sagareo sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli parametrebis da cvladebis rols

asruleben, amovdivarT Semdegi wanamZRvrebidan:

-- sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli saerTaSoriso

sistemis parametrebi warmoadgenen garkveul farTo procesebs, romlebic

drois mocemuli periodisaTvis Sinaarsobrivad gansazRvraven

saerTaSoriso sistemis gamoyofil maxasiaTeblebs. amgvari SedarebiT

37

mudmivi parametrebi gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis

zogad reJimebs imisda mixedviT Tu ramdenad uaxlovdebian isini

gamoyofili maxasiaTeblebis zRvrul mniSvnelobas.

-- cvalebadobis ufro maRali xarisxis mqone konkretuli movlenebi,

romlebic drois mocemuli periodisTvis konkretul Sinaarss aniWeben

saerTaSoriso sistemis gamoyofil parametrebs Cvens mier ganixilebian,

rogorc saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebi. TavianTi `radikalurobis~

xarisxiT, anu imis da mixedviT Tu ramdenad uaxlovdebian isini

gamoyofili parametrebis zRvrul mniSvnelobas, cvladebi zemoqmedeben da

saxes ucvlian sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebas.

-- saerTaSoriso sistemis yvela movlena ar aris erTnairad

relevanturi calkeuli saxelmwifosaTvis. saerTaSoriso sistemis

movlenebi relevanturia konkretuli saxelmwifosaTvis imdenad ramdenadac

isini ukavSirdebian aRniSnuli saxelmwifos Sida procesebs. amgvarad,

saerTaSoriso sistemis movlena iqceva mocemuli saxelmwifos sagareo

politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebul cvladad, Tuki igi relevanturia

aRniSnuli saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri TvalsazrisiTac.

-- konkretuli saxelmwifos urTierTqmedebebis ganxilvisas, rogorc

globaluri, aseve regionaluri masStabiT, mxedvelobaSi unda viqonioT is

garemoeba, rom mocemuli saxelmwifos sagareo politikis sistemis

Sesavalze arsebuli cvladebi SeiZleba icvlebodnen imisda mixedviT, Tu

danarCeni cvladebis ra kombinaciaSi iyrian isini Tavs.

1.3.3.2 Sidapolitikuri sistema

jon kenedim Tavisi prezidentobis dasawyisSi aRniSna, rom

gansxvaveba prezidentis damarcxebebs Soris qveynis saSinao Tu sagareo

saqmeebSi iseTive didia, rogorc gansxvaveba `kanonproeqtis Cavardnasa da

qveynis ganadgurebas Soris~ (Sorensen, Th., 1965, p.509). dRes, kontrasti

tradiciul SexedulebasTan, romlis Tanaxmad qveynis saSinao politika mis

sazRvrebTanave wydeba, sul ufro mkafio xdeba. davamatebdiT, rom qveynis

sagareo politikaSi, pirvel rigSi, aisaxeba urTierTqmedeba qveynis

38

Sidapolitikur sakiTxebsa da saerTaSoriso movlenebs Soris. aRniSnuli

Tvalsazrisi Cveni kvlevis erT-erT ZiriTad orientirs warmoadgens.

Cveni modelis Tanaxmad, sagareo politikis sistemis garemos

pirobiTad meore umniSvnelovanes Sres saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri

sistema warmoadgens. zeviT Cven ukve avRniSneT sagareo politikis

analizis `politologiuri~ Tvalsazrisi, romelic swavlobs sagareo

politikis Sidapolitikur determinantebs. aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisis

gaziarebiT, gamovyofT Sidapolitikuri sistemis or ZiriTad struqturas --

socialur-ekonomikur struqturas da ideologiur struqturas. TiToeul

MmaTganSi Tavis mxriv, gamovyofT rig komponentebs, romlebic

relevanturia sagareo politikis TvalsazrisiT.

saxelmwifos socialur-ekonomikuri struqtura. saxelmwifos

socialuri da ekonomikuri ganviTarebis done da stabilurobis xarisxi

uSualod aisaxeba mis sagareo politikaze. aRiarebulia, rom ekonomikurad

susti saxelmwifoebis sagareo politikaSi Warbobs usafrTxoebis

sakiTxebis prioriteti, romelTaganac gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba

usafrTxoebis ekonomikur aspeqtebs eniWebaT. aRsaniSnavia isic, rom bevri

axlad Seqmnili damoukidebeli saxelmwifosTvis, usafrTxoebis samxedro

aspeqtebia prioritetuli. viziarebT aseve edvard morsis debulebas,

romlis Tanaxmad swrafi socialur-ekonomikuri modernizaciis procesebi

ganviTarebad qveynebSi mniSvnelovan zegavlenas axdens maT sagareo

politikaze (moyvanilia: Farrands, 1994, p.90).

gamovyofT socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis sam ZiriTad

makroekonomikur komponents: ekonomikuri zrdis temps, saxelmwifo

biujetis Sesrulebis dones da savaWro balanss. aRniSnuli maCveneblebi,

iseve rogorc maTi Semadgeneli ufro viwro mniSvnelobis indikatorebi

(rogoricaa mTliani Sida produqti, samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi,

umuSevrobis done, mosaxleobis Semosavlis maCvenebeli, da sxva)

gansazRvravs saxelmwifos keTildReobis/siRaribis dones da gamoiyeneba

ekonomistebis da politikosebis mier saxelmwifos mTlian ekonomikur

39

mdgomareobaze dasakvirveblad. es komponentebi aseve pirvel rigSi

aisaxeba sagareo politikis sistemaze, im politikuri kursebis meSveobiT,

romelTac axorcielebs mTavroba qveynis ekonomikuri zrdis misaRwevad. anu

Tu amosaval postulatad miviRebT, rom saxelmwifos sagareo politika

mniSvnelovnad motivirebulia misi ekonomikuri gaZlierebiT, miviCnevT, rom

Sida debatebi ekonomikuri zrdis uzrunvelyofis kursebis irgvliv, iseve

rogorc maTi ganxorcieleba, aisaxeba qveynis sagareo politikazec, iqneba

igi dakavSirebuli sagareo daxmarebasTan, saerTaSoriso ZalisxmevaSi

monawileobasTan, Tu savaWro da usafrTxoebis TanamSromlobasTan.

saxelmwifos ideologiuri struqtura. saxelmwifos politikuri

struqtura pirvel rigSi efuZneba mis ideologias, romelsac

literaturaSi xSirad axasiaTeben, rogorc RirebulebaTa erTobliobas

sazogadoebaSi mTavrobis rolisa da miznebis Taobaze. 1 davamatebdiT

aseve, rom saxelmwifos ideologiuri struqtura motivacias uqmnis misi

sagareo politikis miznebs da gansazRvravs politikis warmatebulobis

Sefasebis kriteriumebs. ideologia ganapirobebs agreTve, Tu ramdenad

moqnilad reagirebs qveynis sagareo politika, rogorc misive sazogadoebis

Sida moTxovnebze, aseve saerTaSoriso sistemis gareSe zewolaze (Farrands,

1989, pp 84-107).

gamovyofT ideologiuri struqturis ZiriTad komponentebs,

romlebic, Cveni azriT, axasiaTeben ra mis arsebiT aspeqtebs, amave dros

uSualo zemoqmedebas axdenen demokratiuli saxelmwifos sagareo

politikis sistemaze. es komponentebia: politikuri partiebi;

sazogadoebrivi azri; masmedia; interesTa jgufebi; arasamTavrobo

organizaciebi da analitikuri centrebi; da politikuri istebliSmenti.

qvemoT Cven gavaanalizebT im paramtrebsa da cvaldebs, romlebic

axasiaTeben sakuTriv aSS-is Sidapolitikuri sistemis socialur-

ekonomikuri da ideologiuri struqturebis gamoyofil komponentebs da,

1 politikuri ideologiebis Tanamedrove mimdinareobebis Sesaxeb ix.: omar gogiaSvili, politikuri ideologiebi, Tbilisi, 2004; valerian Wania, politologiis safuZvlebi, Tbilisi, 2000

40

warmaodgenen ra aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebul

parametrebsa da cvladebs, gansazRvraven misi funqcionirebis reJimebs.

1.3.3.3 obieqti saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema da sagreo politikis orientacia

Cveni modelis Tanaxmad, sagareo politikis funqcionirebis garemos

mesame umniSvnelovanes Sres warmoadgens im òbieqti~ saxelmwifos

Sidapolitikuri sistema da sagareo politikis orientacia, romlis

mimarTac xorcieldeba Sesaswavli `subieqti~ saxelmwifos sagareo

politika. kvlevis miznebis Sesabamisad, pirvel rigSi mxedvelobaSi unda

iyos miRebuli is faqtorebi, romlebic specifiuri iqneba konkretuli

òbieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri da saerTaSoriso

mimarTebebisaTvis.

1.3.4 garemos koncentruli modeli

amgvarad, sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis garemos

warmoavadgenT koncentruli modelis saxiT, sadac gamoyofili qvesistemebi

da maTi struqturebi Seadgenen erTmaneTis mimarT Tanmimdevrul da

urTierTSeRwevad Sreebs.

rogorc avRniSneT, koncentruli modelis, pirobiTad, yvelaze gare,

pirvel Sres warmoadgens saerTaSoriso sistema; Semdgom Sida, meore Sres -

sagareo politikis `subieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema,

romelic, Tavis mxriv, Seicavs socialur-ekonomikuri da ideologiuri

struqturis Sreebs; xolo mesame Sres warmoadgens òbieqti~ saxelmwifo,

romelic Seicavs misi Sidapolitikuri da sagareo politikis orientaciis

Sreebs (ix. danarTi 1).

TiToeuli Sris parametrebi da cvladebi, maTi politikuri,

ekonomikuri da ideologiuri datvirTvis Sesabamisad, korelaciaSi arian

41

erTmaneTTan da gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis

zogad reJimebs.

amgvar modelze dayrdnobiT, miviCnevT, rom sagareo politikis

garkveuli sakiTxi SeiZleba wamoiWras sistemis funqcionirebis garemos

nebismier Sreze. aRniSnuli sakiTxi sistemis Sesavalze Tavdapirvelad

ganixileba, rogorc sistemis konkretuli cvladi, romelic

urTierTqmedebaSi Sedis garemos mocemuli Sreebis parametrebTan da

cvladebTan. amgvari urTierTqmedebis Sedegad aRniSnuli cvladi swored

rom yalibdeba, rogorc sagareo politikis sakiTxi, romelic Semdgom ukve

urTierTqmedebs sistemis funqcionirebis Sesabamis reJimebTan. sabolood,

mocemuli sakiTxi, gaivlis ra sistemis Sualedur -- interpretaciisa da

gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesis -- etaps, yalibdeba rogorc sistemis

gamosavalze miRebuli Sedegi (ix. danarTi 2).

42

Tavi II

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis

meqanizmi

2.1 preambula

winamdebare Tavis mizania, ganvixiloT aSS-is sagareo politikis

sistemis funqcionirebis meqanizmi Cvens mier SemoTavazebuli modelis

safuZvelze. vinaidan Cveni modeli sagareo politikis sistemas

warmoadgens dinamikaSi, mocemuli saSinao da saerTaSoriso garemos

CarCoebSi, misi ganzogadoebuli daxasiaTebis mcdelobac gulisxmobs

droisa da sivrcis faqtorebis gaTvaliswinebas, anu sistemis

funqcionirebis zogadi principebis warmoCenas garkveul istoriul-

geografiul fonze. amgvar fonad Cvens mier aRebuli iqna

Tanamedroveobis TvalsazrisiT erT-erTi yvelaze kritikuli periodi -

civi omis dasrulebidan, prezident jorj buSis administraciis

periodidan, pirveli civi omis-Semdgomi prezidentis, prezident bil

klintonis administraciis dasrulebamde, - rodesac ukve met-naklebi

simkveTriT gamoikveTa `axali msoflio wesrigis~ Semdgomi ganviTarebis

konturebi.

2.2 saerTaSoriso garemo

davaxasiaToT mocemuli periodis aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis

Sesavalze arsebuli saerTaSoriso garemos parametrebi, anu is konkretuli

procesebi, romlebic konkretul Sinaarss aniWeben garemos gamoyofil

maxasiaTeblebs, relevanturi arian aSS-is Sidapolitikuri sistemis

TvalsazrisiT da zemoqmedebas axdenen aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis

operirebaze.

Ppresisa da Tanamedrove saerTaSorso garemos analizisadmi

miZRvnili literaturis Sejereba saSualebas gvaZlevs gamovyoT xuTi

43

urTierTdamokidebuli farTo procesi, romlic axasiaTebs saerTaSoriso

garemos civi omis Semdgom periodSi. es procesebia: 1. komunizmis

damarcxeba; 2. arastabilurobis axali kerebis aRmoceneba; 3. axali

safrTxeebis ganviTareba; 4. axali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmna; da 5.

mzardi urTierTdamokidebuleba saxelmwifoTa Soris.

aRniSnuli procesebi ganxiluli iqneba, rogorc aSS-is sagareo

politikis sistemis funqcionirebis reJimebis ganmsazRvreli zogadi

faqtorebi -- SedarebiT `mudmivi~ parametrebi, romlebic amavdroulad

Seadgenen nebismieri calke aRebuli saxelmwifos mimarT aSS-is sagareo

politikis SemuSvebis zogad konteqsts. Cven aq ar SevCerdebiT aRniSnuli

parametrebis calkeul komponentebze (konkretul movlenebze), romlebic

gansazRvraven mocemuli parametrebis Sinaarss da sistemaze zemoqmedebis

xarisxis mixedviT, SeiZleba ganixilebodnen, rogorc sistemis Sesavalze

arsebuli gansxvavebuli `intensivobis~ mqone cvladebi.

2.2.1. komunizmis damarcxeba

yofil komunistur blokSi axali tipis winaaRmdegobebis ganviTarebam

misi arastabilurobis axali SesaZleblobebi Seqmna. aRniSnuli procesi

Sesabamis asaxvas poulobs am periodis amerikul presasa da analitikur

literaturaSi, sadac yuradRebis centrSi kvlav dgas ruseTi, rogorc

didi SesaZleblobebisa da, amave dros, didi safrTxeebis matarebel qveyana.

ruseTis arastabilurobis safrTxe, amave dros, ukavSirdeba aRmosavleT

evropaSi demokratiuli gardaqmnebis Seferxebis safrTxes.

yofili komunisturi blokis potenciuri arastabilurobis swored es

procesi ganixileba Cvens mier, rogorc drois mocemuli monakveTisaTvis

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli erT-erTi

SedarebiT mudmivi parametri, romelic gansazRvravs sistemis

funqcionirebis erT-erT reJims. aRniSnuli procesi, romelsac Cven

zogadad vuwodebT komunizmis damarcxebas, saerTaSoriso garemos

ZiriTadad axasiaTebs `mouwesrigeblobis~ da `arastabilurobis~

44

maxasiaTeblebis mixedviT da ubiZgebs aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemas

imoqmedos reJimSi, romelic, reagirebs am maxasiaTeblebze (bukia, 2001, gv.

500-526).

rogoria es reJimi da rogor gansazRvravs igi sistemis gamosavalze

miRebul `deklaraciul~ da òperaciul~ Sedegebs?

analitikur literaturaSi dominirebs azri, rom civi omis periodis

naTlad gamokveTili maxasiaTeblebis gaqrobasTan erTad, irRveva mkafio

korelacia saerTaSoriso garemosa da aSS-is erovnul interesebs Soris;

amdenad, irRveva aSS-is sagareo politikis kriteriumebic. 1 Tuki

gaviTvaliswinebT im Sida winaaRmdegobebs, romlebic ganviTarda yofil

komunistur sivrceSi civi omis dasrulebis Semdeg, Cven srulad ver

gaviziarebT aRniSnul mosazrebebs. vityodiT, rom aRmosavleT-dasavleTis

Ria konfrontaciis amowurvasTan erTad, aSS-is sagareo politikis

moqmedebis areali sagrZnoblad gafarTovda da Tuki civi omis periodSi

analitikosebi kamaTobdnen aSS-is èvropuli politikis~ sxvadasxva

motivebis Taobaze, 2 SeiZleba iTqvas, rom axal etapze aRniSnuli motivebi

realurad konsolidirdeba mopovebuli gamarjvebis gasamtkiceblad; anu,

aSS kvlavac motivirebulia daicvas evropis (gafarToebulis)

usafrTxoebis interesebi, kapitalizmis fundamentaluri ekonomikuri

principebi da xeli Seuwyos TanamSromlobas saerTaSoriso mSvidobis

misaRwevad. Tumca, gafarToebul arealze am motivebiT ganpirobebuli

sagareo politikis konkretuli miznebis da amocanebis realizacia

pirdapir damokidebulebaSia aRniSnuli arealis Sida sirTuleebTan.

Sesabamisad, Cven visaubrebT aSS-is sagareo politikis miznebis da

amocanebis danawevrebasa da mravalferovnebaze, gamomdinare TviT arealis

1 magaliTad, aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisi sxvadasxva kuTxiT gaanalizebulia krebulSi U.S. Foreign Policy. The Search for a New Role, Edited by Robert J. Art and Seyom Brown, New York, 1993 . 2 amgvari motivebi erTiandeba Semdeg kategoriebSi: `tradiciuli,~ anu usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis motivebi `revizionistuli,~ anu kapitalizmis fundamentaluri principebis dacvis motivebi; da ìdealisturi,~ rogorc saerTaSoriso mSvidobis da usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis motivebi.

45

problemaTa maravlferovnebidan, da ara sagareo politikis kriteriumebis

da motivebis danawevrebaze.

Cveni mosazreba emyareba Semdeg msjelobas: civi omis Semdgom

periodSi, ori sruliad gansazRvruli alternativis winaSe mdgari aSS

dainteresebulia stabilur da ekonomikurad Zlier dasavleT evropaSi,

romelic Tavisi sabazro ekonomikisa da demokratiis RirebulebebiT,

moizidavs aRmosavleT evropasa da yofil sabWoTa respublikebs. 1 amave

dros, aSS sasicocxlodaa dainteresebuli, rom ar iqnas CaTreuli im

qaosSi, romelmac, movlenaTa arasasurveli ganviTarebis SemTxvevaSi,

SesaZloa evropis mTeli kontinenti moicvas. meore mxriv, axali realiebis

pirispir, rodesac regionaluri usafrTxoebis suraTi uaRresad myife

xdeba, gafarToebul evropas kidev ufro metad esaWiroeba aSS-is

mxardaWera. amdenad SesaZlebelia mtkiceba, rom aRniSnuli parametris

sapasuxod, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJimi

momarTulia evropis gafarToebul arealze stabilurobis da

mowesrigebulobis SenarCunebisaken, sagareo politikis SedarebiT

danawevrebuli miznebisa da amocanebis Sesrulebis gziT. sistemis

gamosavalze, mocemuli reJimi gansazRvravs rogorc deklaraciuli, aseve

operaciuli donis Sedegebs, romelTa Sorisac umTavresad migvaCnia, erTi

mxriv, `nato~-s 2 da, meore mxriv, èvropaSi TanamSromlobisa da

usafrTxoebis konferenciis ~ (SemdgomSi òrganizaciis~) 3 axali

politikuri misiebis ganviTareba.

1 Sesabamisi argumentacia ix.: Joseph S. Nye, Jr. What New World Order? Foreign Affairs, 1992, vol. 71, issue 2, pp. 83-96 2 1991 w. 3 oqtombers aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivanma j. beikerma da germaniis sagareo saqmeTa ministrma h. genSerma erToblivi gancxadebiT Semoitanes winadadeba ganxorcielebuliyo `nato~ -s `liazonis programis~ institucionalizacia Crdilo atlantikuri TanamSromlobis sabWos saxiT. 1991 w. noemberSi, romis samitma oficialurad daaarsa Crdilo atlantikuri TanamSromlobis sabWo, rogorc aliansis qveynebis mier partniori qveynebisaTvis usafrTxoebis sakiTxebze gamocdilebis gaziarebis forumi. 1999 w. mas Caenacvla evroatlantikuri TanamSromlobis sabWo, romelic politikisa da usafrTxoebis mraval sferos moicavs. 3 civi omis Semdeg, èuTk~ iZens misi wevri qveynebis saerTo problemebis gadaWris forumis funqcias, romlis aRsasrulebladac 1990 wlis noemberSi xeli ewereba `parizis qartias axali evropisaTvis~. am etapze èuTk~-s miznebia: gaaumjobesos Tavisi SesaZleblobebi konfliqtebis Tavidan acilebis da krizisebis marTvis mizniT; gaagrZelos muSaoba

46

2.2.2 arastabilurobis axali kerebi

mocemul periodSi, evraziis kontinentze arastabilurobis axali

kerebis warmoqmnis procesi ukavSirdeba komunizmis damarcxebis aRweril

process. yofil sabWoTa kavSirSi mwvavdeba politikuri, eTnikuri da

religiuri dapirispirebebi. SesaZloa, rom sabWoTa kavSiris daSlam,

moxsna ra evropaSi gareSe Zlieri Zalis faqtori, erTgvari katalizatoris

rolic Seasrula iugoslaviis konfliqtis ganviTarebaSi. aRmosavleT-

dasavleTis dapirispirebis dasrulebam arc israel-palestinis konfliqtis

dasrulebas Seuwyo xeli, miuxedavad imisa, rom sabWoTa kavSiris saxiT

palestinis ganmanTavisuflebel organizacias mxardaWeris mniSvnelovani

wyaro gamoecala. danarCen msoflioSi, axal `birTvul konturebs~ iZens

50-wliani pakistan-indoeTis dapirispireba, arastabiluribis axali kerebi

Cndeba afrikaSi, sul ufro mzard saerTaSoriso SeSfoTebas iwvevs

CrdiloeT koreis birTvuli ambiciebi. Cvens mizans ar warmoadgens

mocemuli periodis konfliqtebis daxasiaTeba. vityodiT mxolod, rom

meoce saukunis dasasrulisaTvis, saerTaSoriso sistemis yvelaze feTqebad

regionebSi arastabilurobis gadamwyvet faqtorebs warmoadgens

polarizebuli politikuri procesebi, ekonomikuri siduxWire, religiuri

Seuwynarebloba da mzardi terorizmi. meore mxriv, globalizaciis

procesi aseve xels uwyobs lokaluri finansuri da ekonomikuri krizisebis

TiTqmis myisier gavrcelebas. xolo globalizaciis procesis is

monawileni, romlebic wamgebian mdgomareobaSi aRmoCndebian TavianTi

geopolitikuri metoqeebis pirispir, saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis rRvevis

axal potencials iZenen. 1

adamianis uflebebis dacvis sakiTxebze; misces wevr saxelmwifoebs Semdgomi biZgi ekonomikuri, samecniero da garemos dacvis sferoSi TanamSromlobisaTvis. 1994 w. euTk ukve `organizaciis~ statuss iZens da axali politikur impulsiT, 1999 w. stambulis samitze iRebs evropuli usafrTxoebis gafarToebul qartias. 1 globalizaciisa da arastabilurobis kavSiris Sesaxeb ix. krebuli: Facing a Changing World, Institute for National Strategic Studies, http://www.ndu.edu

47

arastabilurobis axali kerebis warmoqmnis procesi, msgavsad

komunizmis damarcxebisa, saerTaSoriso sistemas aseve axasiaTebs

`mouwesrigeblobis~ da `arastabilurobis~ gamoyofili maxasiaTeblebis

mixedviT; Tumca aRniSnuli procesis konsolidireba aSS-is sagareo

politikis sistemis Sesavalze, rogorc am sistemis funqcinirebis erT-erTi

reJimis ganmsazRvreli parametrisa, sakmaod araerTmniSnelovan

zemoqmedebas warmoqmnis.

gamovyofT aRniSnuli parametris aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaze

zemoqmedebis or tendencias.

1. mimdinare konteqstSi, aSS-is politikuri istebliSmentisTvis

aSkaraa lokaluri konfliqtebis Sekavebis aucilebloba, maT mier ufro

farTo sistemuri xasiaTis SeZenis aRsakveTad. kerZod, sabWoTa kavSiris

daSlisTanave, aSS-is usafrTxoebis strategiis mesveurebi xazs usvamen

rogorc aSS-Si, aseve evropaSi SeiaraRebis arsebuli donis SenarCunebis

aucileblobas (Powell, 1993, p.7). regionaluri stabilurobis SenarCunebis

mizniT, aSS-is samxedro istebliSmentis farglebSi yalibdeba e.w.

`mSvidobiani monawileobis~ koncefcia, romelic sam komponents

iTvaliswinebs: aSS-is teritoriis gareT samxedro nawilebis ganlagebas;

erToblivi wrTvnis programebis ganxorcielebas; da pirdapiri samxedro

kontaqtebis ganviTarebas (Shelton, 1999). imavdroulad, aSS-is politikur da

analitikur wreebSi msjeloben axali e.w. `erTiani samxreTis strategiis~

SemuSavebis aucileblobaze, romlis veqtoric moyolebuli balkaneTidan,

moicavs axlo aRmosavleTs, sparseTis yures, da samxreT-aRmosavleT azias

(Institute for National Strategic Studies, 1999, pp. 24-30).

2. meore mxriv, aSS-is politikuri istebliSmentisTvis aseve naTelia,

rom arastabilurobis axali kerebis aRmoceneba SerCeviT reagirebas

moiTxovs. ZiriTadi kiTxva, romelic ismeba aSS-is politikur wreebSi aris

- Tu rogor unda ganisazRvros aSS-is usafrTxoebis interesebi e.w.

`periferiul~ regionebSi? (Newsom, 1999)

48

am kiTxvaze erT-erTi radikaluri pasuxis Tanaxmad, aSS-is

usafrTxoebis politika, pirvel rigSi, dasavleT naxevarsferoze unda iyos

mimarTuli, vinadan swored iq wydeba `aSS-is, rogorc eris", bedi. (Woodruff,

1993, pp.103-108) Tumca, romc movwydeT am erTob calmxriv Tvalsazriss,

Sesabamisi gancxadebebis analizi saSualebas gvaZlevs gamovyoT msjelobis

Semdegi ZiriTadi xazi: lokaluri Tu regionaluri konfliqtebis

daregulirebis mcdelobisas, aSS-ma ar unda ikisros calmxrivi

valdebulebebi. Amave dros, amgvari gancxadebebis simravle saSualebas

gvaZlevs davaskvnaT, rom sakuTriv aSS-is erTpirovnuli monawileoba

arastabilurobis axali kerebis aRmosafxvrelad politikuri

istebliSmentisTvis naklebad aris misaRebi.

miuxedavad aRniSnuli ori tendenciis winaaRmdegobrivi xasiaTisa,

migvaCnia, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze gamoyofili

parametri gansazRvravs sistemis operirebis sakmaod mkafio reJims,

romelic mimarTulia mokavSireTa Ziebasa da maTi erToblivi Zalisxmevis

koordinirebaze usafrTxoebis saerTo amocanebis gadasaWrelad (Nye, 1998).

Tuki movaxdenT SeiaraRebis kontrolisa da saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis

sakiTxebSi saxelmwifo mdivnis imJamindeli moadgilis jon holumis

citirebas, `aSS mzad unda iyos erTpirovnuli qmedebebisTvis, magram

amavdroulad, rudunebiT unda muSaobdes kaoliciebis Seqmnisa da

ganmtkicebisaTvis~ (Holum, 1998).

2.2.3 axali safrTxeebis ganviTareba

axali safrTxeebis ganviTareba, rogorc Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso

garemos ganviTarebis Tanamavali procesi, marginalur fundamentalistur

saxelmwifoTa agresiis zrdis kvaldakval, mzardi intensivobiT xasiaTdeba.

axal safrTxeTa Soris ori ZiriTadi mimarTuleba moiazreba. pirvel

farTo mimarTulebas warmoadgens masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis

gavrceleba, sadac, Tavis mxriv, gamoiyofa: a) birTvuli iaraRis saxelmwifo

kontrolidan gadena; b) marginalur saxelmwifoTa mier birTvuli iaraRis

49

ganviTareba; g) biologiuri da qimiuri iaraRis ganviTareba. meore farTo

mimarTulebas warmoadgens terorizmis gavrceleba. ukve Cvens mier

ganxilul periodSi, gamoikveTeba terorizmis axali tipi, romelic miznad

isaxavs misTvis `borotebad~ gacxadebuli demokratiis simboloebis

ganadgurebas. aRniSnuli procesi ukavSirdeba zemoT aRweril or process,

gansakuTrebiT ki komunizmis damarcxebas, ramac birTvuli iaraRis

gadinebis uprecendento saSiSroeba Seqmna. migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli

procesi saerTaSoriso garemos axasiaTebs ara mxolod, da ara imdenad,

`mouwesrigeblobisa~ da `arastabilurobis~ mimarTulebiT, ramdenadac

`integracia-izolaciis~ wyvili maxasiaTeblis RerZze, integraciis

mimarTulebiT, Tumca, ra Tqma unda, igi am maxasiaTeblis negatiur

gamovlinebas warmoadgens. jozef nais mier SemoTavazebuli msoflioSi

Zalauflebis ganawilebis samganzomilebiani modelis analogiiT,

mkvlevarTa da politikosTa umravlesoba axali safrTxeebis warmoqmnis

tendencias ganixilavs trans-nacionaluri urTierTqmedebis doneze, sadac

Sesabamisi `tranzaqciebi~ iolad xorcieldeba mTavrobaTa kompetenciis

miRma (Nye, 1998). Tumca, rogorc yvelaze arasasurveli scenari, ar

gamoiricxeba agresor saxelmwifoTa koaliciebis Seqmnac.

aRniSnuli procesi, rogorc sagareo sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli

SedarebiT mudmivi parametri, gansazRvarvs aSS-is sagareo sistemis

funqcionirebis reJims, romelic, Cveni azriT, oTx ZiriTad mimarTulebazea

orientirebuli. es mimarTulebebia:

1. SeiaraRebis gauvrceleblobis saerTaSoriso reJimis xelSewyoba; 2.

regionaluri usafrTxoebis gaZliereba; 3. marginalur saxelmwifoTa

mimarT sanqciebis ganxorcieleba; 4. aSS-is sakuTari Tavdacvisunarianobis

gaZliereba. 1

1 aRniSnuli mimarTulebebis gamoyofa ganxorcielda Semdeg wyaroebze dayrdnobiT: Holum, John D. (Acting Under Secretary of Sate for Arms Control and International Security Affairs), "New Security Threats: The U.S. Response," U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changing World, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 3, No.3, July 1998; Fact Sheet: Combating Terrorism (Presidential Decision Directive 62), White House, May 22, 1998 ; Mann, Paul, "Pentagon Called Unprepared for 'Post-Modern' Conflict," Aviation Week and Space Technology, Vol. 148, No. 17, April 27, 1998, pp. 54-56;

50

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sedegebis rogorc `deklaraciul,~

aseve `operaciul~ doneze, aRiSnuli reJimi Sesabamisad gulisxmobs: --

SeiaraRebis kontrolis saerTaSoriso SeTanxmebebSi (rogoricaa,

`birTvuli gauvrceleblobis xelSekruleba,~ `qimiuri iaraRis konvencia,~

`biologiuri iaraRis konvencia,~ `birTvuli masalebis fizikuri dacvis

konvencia~) monawileobas; -- diplomatiuri da usafrTxoebis zomebis

kombinirebas mocemul regionebSi masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis

gavrcelebis aRsakveTad (am zomebs Soris TvalsaCino adgili uWiravs `nan-

lugaris safrTxis Semcirebis erTobliv programas~); -- marginalur

saxelmwifoTa (erayis, libiis, sudanis) politikuri da ekonomikuri dasjis

zomebs; -- axlad damoukidebel saxelmwifoebTan TanamSromlobas, maTi

saerTaSoriso struqturebSi CarTvisa da ormxrivi TanamSromlobis

formatiT (National Security Strategy, White House, 1999).

marTalia, aRniSnuli reJimi gansxvavebul parametrs eyrdnoba, igi

exmianeba aRweril wina or reJims, rogorc evropis gazrdil arealze

stabilurobis SenarCunebasTan mimarTebaSi, aseve mokavSireTa aliansebis

ZiebasTan mimarTebaSi. amave dros, aRniSnuli samive parametri -- yofil

komunistur banakSi axali problemebis ganviTareba; arastabilurobis axali

kerebis ganviTareba; da axali safrTxeebis warmoSoba -- aSS-is sagareo

politikis sitemas aniWebs operirebis kidev erT umniSvnelovanes reJims,

romelic uSualod ukavSirdeba aSS-is sakuTari usafrTxoebis

uzrunvelyofas: globaluri masStabiT, demokratiis ganviTarebis

Cohen, William S. (Secretary of Defense) , "Creating an Environment for Peace, Stability, Confidence," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Preventing Conflict: Military Engagement in Peacetime, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 3, December 1999; Holum, John D., (Senior Advisor to the Secretary of state for Arms Control and International Security) "The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Challenges and Responses," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Responding to the Challenge of Proliferation, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, September 1999; Berger, Samuel R., (National Security Advisor to President Clinton), "Strengthening Non-proliferation: Essential to Global Security," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Responding to the Challenge of Proliferation, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, September 1999; Lugar, Richard (Senior Republican Member of the Senate Foreign Relations and Intelligence Committees and Chairman of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee), "Nunn-Lugar: An Impressive Record on Soviet-Nuclear Arms Dismantlement," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, Responding to the Challenge of Proliferation, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, September 1999

51

xelSewyobas. Tavisi aspeqtebiT (da sistemis gamosavalze Sesabamisi

SedegebiT) aRniSnuli reJimi, albaT yvelaze ufro farToa da moicavs iseT

mimarTulebebs, rogoricaa: adamianis uflebebis dacva; damoukidebeli

mediis ganviTareba; samoqalaqo sazogadoebis, kanonis uzenaesobis da

damoukidebeli sasamarTlo sistemis ganviTareba; saxelisuflo

struqturebSi korufciasTan brZola da sxva.

2.2..4 axali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmna

mocemuli periodis ekonomikuri Sefasebebi eWvqveS ayeneben aSS-is

erTpirovnuli ekonomikuri liderobis perspeqtivas. amave dros, Tu civi

omis periodSi dasavleT evropa warmoadgenda erTgvar `mSvidobis zonas,~

sadac nebismieri winaaRmdegoba, komerciuli winaaRmdegobebis CaTvliT,

aucileblad daZleuli unda yofiliyo (McArdle, 1993, pp.270-288), civi omis

Semdgom periodSi, usafrTxoebis saerTo interesebis SedarebiT

SesustebasTan erTad, warmoiqmna trans-atlantikuri komerciuli qiSpobis

ganviTarebis pirobebic. 1 amave dros, amerikul Sida bazarze iaponuri

saqonlis àgresiuli~ SemoWris kvaldakval, aSS-s winaaRmdegobrivi

urTierTobebi uyalibdeba CineTTanac, romelic ekonomikis zrdis tempiT

saerTaSoriso arenaze TandaTanobiT wina planze gamodis (The Economist, May

20, 2000, pp.21-22). Zalas ikrebs `merkosuri~ 2 da àseanic.~ 1

migvaCnia, rom axali ekonomikuri centrebis ganviTarebis tendencia

saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs ìnetgraciisa~ da àrastabilurobis~

maxasiaTeblebis sakmaod myife balansis mdgomareobiT, sadac saerTaSoriso

vaWrobisa da ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis integraciul procesebs gaaCniaT

1 evrokavSiris akrZalva amerikuli xorcis importze, an kvotebis daweseba samxreT amerikuli bananis importze, iseve rogorc Tavis mxriv, aSS-is sapasuxo `damsjeli~ satarifo zomebi evropul importze, zemoTmoyvanili msjelobis ilustracias warmoadgens. 2 `merkosuri~ (MERCOSUR) -- `samxreTis saerTo bazari~ Seiqmna argentinis, braziliis, paragvais da urugvais mier 1991 w. SeqmnisTanave `merkosurs~ mxars uWerda èvrokomisia~ da èvrokavSiri.~

52

moTamaSeTa dapirispirebis sakmaod Zlieri potencialic. ukve 1980-ian

wlebSi vaSingtoni miuTiTebs, rom evropis erTiani bazris Seqmna, romelic

èvropas evropisTvis Semofarglavs,~ SeiZleba saziano iyos rogorc

evropisTvis, aseve aSS-sTvis da mTliani globaluri ekonomikuri

sistemisaTvis (Lundestad, 1997, p.209). 1990-iani wlebis meore naxevris

literaturaSi musirebs azric, rom èkonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da

ganviTarebis organizaciis~ (OECD) wevr qveynebs Soris imdenad mwvavdeba

ekonomikuri winaaRmdegobebi, rom maTi tradiciulad SemakavSirebeli

saerTo Rirebulebebi ukana planze ixevs.

axali ekonomikuri centrebis ganviTarebis process da mis Tanamaval

e.w. `konkurentuli TanamSromlobis~ tendencias Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebul parametrs, Tavisi

Sesabamisi `radikaluri~ Tu `liberaluri~ zemoqmedebis cvladebiT.

aRniSnuli parametri aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis

reJims sakmaod calsaxad gansazRvravs; kerZod, sagareo politikis wina

planze gamodis ekonomikuri sakiTxebi (rac, Tavis mxriv, kidev ufro

amwvavebs konkurencias axal ekonomikur moTamaSeebTan).

sistemis gamosavalze arsebul `deklaraciul~ da òperaciul~

doneebze, aRniSnuli reJimi gulisxmobs ufro àgresiuli~ sagareo

ekonomikuri politikis gatarebas da sazRvargareT amerikuli biznesis

lobirebas. kerZod, 21-e saukunisaTvis dasaxuli aSS-is erovnuli

usafrTxoebis strategiis erT-erT umTavres komponents warmaodgens

amerikis ekonomikuri konkurentunarianobis gaZliereba, romelic, Tavis

mxriv, moicavs: aSS-is teqnologiuri upiratesobebis SenarCunebas;

mTavrobisa da kerZo seqtoris mier erToblivi saeqsporto strategiis

SemuSavebas; maRalteqnologiuri produqciis eqsportis politikis

gamkacrebas (National Security Strategy for a New Century, 1999).

1 àseani~ (ASEAN) -- samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis qveynebis asociacia Seiqmna 1967 w., Tavdapirvelad xuTi wevri saxelmwifos mier. àseanis~ regionis mosaxleoba Seadgens 500 milions, xolo misi erToblivi mTliani Sida porduqti Seadgens 737 miliard dolars.

53

konkurentunarianobis gaZlierebis konkretul saSualebebs

warmoadgens: e.w. `konkurenciis xelSewyobis~ politika da misi Semadgeneli

antimonopolisturi praqtikis uzrunvelyofis meqanizmebi; `msoflio

savaWro organizaciis~ cirkularebi, romlebic gansazRvarvs sanqciebs

arasamarTliani savaWro praqtikiT dakavebuli mxareebisadmi; da sagareo

daxmareba, romlis udidesi nawili kvlav amerikuli saqonlis da

momsaxurebis Sesyidvas xmardeba. 1

2.2.5 saxelmwifoebs Soris mzardi urTierT-damokidebuleba

saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis procesi Tavisi

arsiT axlos dgas axali ekonomikuri centrebis warmoqmnis procesTan,

Tumca aq wina planze gamodis integraciuli aspeqtebi, romlebic moicavs

ra saxelmwifoTa savaWro -ekonomikur urTierTobebs, aseve asaxeba maT

politikur urTierTqmedebaze. am TvalsazrisiT, pirvel rigSi

gamoikveTeba evropis integraciuli procesebi, romlebic Rrmavdeba ra

swored 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisidan, saukunis bolosaTvis ukve

warimarTeba èvropis erTiani ekonomikuri mTavrobis,~ èvropis federaciis~

da èvropis konstituciis~ misaRwevad (The Economist, May, 2000, pp.22).

aRniSnuli parametri, saerTaSoriso garemos ganviTarebas axasiaTebs

`mowesrigebulobis,~ `stabilurobis,~ da ìntegraciis~ maxasiaTeblebis

mimarTulebiT, Tumca misi zemoqmedeba aSS-is saagreo politikis sistemis

1 aRniSnuli saSualebebis gamoyofa ganxorcielda Semdeg wyaroebze dayrdnobiT: Tritell Randolph (Assistant Director for International Antitrust Bureau of Competition, Federal Trade Commission Byline), "The Application of U.S. Antitrust Laws to Foreign Conduct: Recent Developments", USIA, Economic Perspectives, February 1999. http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/ Lang, Jeffrey, Partner Wilmer, Cutler and Pickering, " International Trade Domestic Regulation, and Competition Policy," ibid; Stern, Paula (President, The Stern Group, Inc.), Working Toward New U.S. Competition Policy Related To Trade," ibid; Klein, Joel ( Assistant Attorney General, Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice), Expansion of International Cooperation Against Anti-Competitive Behavior," ibid. Barry, Tom and Jason Oringer, "Foreign Aid," Foreign Policy in Focus, Volume 2, Number 24, January 1997, http://www.fpif.org/

54

operirebis reJimze winaaRmdegobrivia da ar gulisxmobs mis upirobo

mxardaWeras.

gamovyofT or aspeqts, romelic aRniSnuli parametris sapasuxod,

axasiaTebs aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis reJims: 1.

swrafva wamyvani rolisaken globaluri institucionaluri mmarTvelobis

ganxorcielebaSi; 2. sakuTari erovnuli interesebis dacva. pirveli

aspeqti -- globaluri institucionaluri mmarTvelobis ganxorcieleba,

pirvel rigSi, gulisxmobs aSS-is liderobas koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis da

demkratiuli sazogadoebis saerTaSoriso normebis uzrunvelyofis

sakiTxebSi. am mimarTebiT, sistemis gamosaval etapze, aSS-is sagareo

politikis ganxorcielebis erT-erT yvelaze efeqtur saSualebas

warmoadgens aSS-is monawileoba gaeroSi - struqturaSi, romelSic

ganxorcieleba hpova vilsoniseuli msoflio mTavrobis ideam.

aRniSnuli mtkiceba ar aris erTmniSvnelovnad gaziarebuli aSS-is

analitikur Tu politikur wreebSi. kerZod, aSS-sa da gaeros

urTierTqmedebis sakiTxebze SesaZlebelia analizis sami mimarTulebis

gamoyofa, sadac: pirveli mimarTulebis farglebSi gamoiTqmis SeSfoTeba

gaerosadmi aSS-is daqvemdebarebis Taobaze (Rieff, 1999); meore mimarTuleba

gaeros ganixilavs, rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis instruments,

romelsac igi moxerxebulad iyenebs Tavisi miznebis misaRwevad (Bennis,2000);

xolo mesame mimarTuleba miuTiTebs konceptualur Seusabamobaze TviT

gaeros institutsa da amerikul Rirebulebebs Soris, romlebic TiTqosda

saerTod eWvqveS ayeneben raime `zemTavrobis~ arsebobis mizanSewonilobas

(Belton, 1997).

mocemul periodSi aSS-is sagareo politikuri kursis analizi

gaerosTan mimarTbeSi, rogorc deklaraciul, aseve operaciul donebze

(TviT gaeros reorganizaciis mcdelobaTa CaTvliT), saSualebas gvaZlevs

vamtkicoT, rom gaero kvlavac warmoadgens aSS-is sagareo politikis

gatarebis mniSvnelovan saSulebas, romelic kerZod mimarTulia aSS-is

55

institucionaluri globaluri mmarTvelobis ganxorcielebis

xelSewyobaze. 1

meore aspeqti - aSS-is sakuTari interesebis uzrunvelyofa - Cvens

mier, pirvel rigSi, ganixileba èvropis kavSirTan~ mimarTebaSi. rogorc

aRiniSneba amerikul analitikur literaturasa da politikur gamosvlebSi,

aSS tradiciulad mxars uWers evropis integracias, rogorc regionis

keTildReobisa da usafrTxoebis aucilebel pirobas. magram, Tuki

daveyrdnobiT zemoT ganxilul Tezas èvropis kavSirTan~, rogorc

damoukidebel moTamaSesTan, konkurenciis gamwvavebis Taobaze, unda

miviRoT is garemoebac, rom mocemul periodSi, aSS-is interesebSia

evropuli integracia moaqcios usafrTxoebisa da ekonomikuri

TanamSromlobis CarCoebSi, rac amavdroulad uzrunvelyofs sakuTriv aSS-

is interesebis ganxorcielebas. usafrTxoebis sferoSi, aRniSnuli pozicia,

pirvel rigSi, gulisxmobs evropaSi `nato~-s SenarCunebas, xolo

ekonomikur sferoSi, - evropis kavSiris èfeqtis~ Sesustebas saerTaSoriso

vaWrobis liberalizaciis gziT.

komunizmis damarcxebis parametrTan mimarTebaSi, Cven ukve gavusviT

xazi `nato~-s axal ganzomilebas- evropis transformaciisa da

stabilizaciis xelSewyobas. aSS-is mier aRniSnuli ganzomilebis

ganviTareba, amave dros, emsaxureba zemoT xsenebul institucionaluri

globaluri mmarTvelobis ganxorcielebis mizansac. xolo aq moyvanili

ganzomileba - evropuli integraciis moqceva erTian usafrTxoebis

CarCoebSi aSS-is interesebis uzrunvelsayofad - aramc Tu gamoricxavs,

1 aRniSnuli mtkiceba efuZneba Semdeg wyaroebs: Fact Sheet: United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (Includes State Department Data on U.S. Contributions); U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, The United States and the United Nations, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2, May 1997 Fact Sheet: United Nations Humanitarian Activities (Includes White House Data on U.S. contributions); U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, The United States and the United Nations, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2, May 1997 How U.S. Lawmakers View the United Nations; Statements by Members of Congress; U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, The United States and the United Nations, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2, May 1997 Albright, Madeleine, " The U.N, the U.S., and the World," Congressional Digest, vol. 76, no. 1, January 199, pp. 14-15 Council on Foreign Relations, "American National Interest and the United Nations," New York, NY: The Council, 1996 Birenbaum, David (Former U.S. Representative to the United Nations), "Keeping America's Commitment to the United Nations," U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, The United States and the United Nations, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2, May 1997

56

aramed piriqiT, avsebs kidevac pirvels, miuxedavad imisa, rom xSirad isini

erTmaneTTan SepirispirebiT ganixilebian.

saerTaSoriso vaWrobis liberalizacia, `nato~-s misiis axali

datvirTvis msgavsad, ormag mizans emsaxureba. pirveli aris globaluri

masStabis mizani -- globalizaciis procesSi CarTul saxelmwifoTa

ekonomikuri keTildReobis amaRlebis xelSewyoba, rac Tavis mxriv

gulisxmobs aSS-is mier institucionalur globalur mmarTvelobaSi, am

SemTxvevaSi ekonomikur mmarTvelobaSi, wamyvani rolis damkvidrebas; xolo

meore mizania -- aSS-is interesebis uzrunvelyofa axali ekonomikuri

sivrceebis (pirvel rigSi, `evropis kavSiris~) gafarToebis konteqstSi.

aRniSnuli ormagi mizani Tavdapirvelad xorcieldeba arsebuli GATT

SeTanxmebis, xolo Semdgom, misi memkvidre WTO -s meSveobiT. aSS-is

liderebis gancxadebebis ZiriTadi masa fokusirebulia swored pirvel,

globalur mizanze, romelic, Tavis mxriv, gulisxmobs bazrebis gaxsnas,

axali samuSao adgilebis Seqmnas da garemos dacvis gaumjobesebas. meore

mizani -- aSS-is rolis da interesebis uzrunvelyofa -- ZiriTadad efuZneba

saerTaSoriso vaWrobis garkveuli normebisa da regulaciebis CarCoebSi

moqcevas, monawile mxareTaTvis Tanabari pirobebis Seqmnis konteqstSi. 1

gvinda xazi gavusvaT, rom am SemTxvevaSic, saerTaSoriso vaWrobis

liberalizaciis ori mizani ar gamoricxavs erTmaneTs.

amgvarad, saxelmwifoTa mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis parametris

sapasuxod, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistema operirebs reJimSi, romelic

Sesabamisi saSualebebis meSveobiT, mimarTulia rogorc globaluri

masStabis usafrTxoebis da ekonomikuri keTildReobis misaRwevad, aseve

1 aRniSnuli msjeloba efuZneba Semdeg wyaroebs: President Clinton on Globalization and World Trade, (excerpts from address to the World Economic Forum), Economic Perspectives, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol.5, No.1, February 2000, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals Aron, David (Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade), "Keeping Market Access on Track, " Economic Perspectives, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol.5, No.1, February 2000, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals Baucus, Max (U.S. Senator from Montana), "Seattle Does not Mean an End to Progress", Economic Perspectives, An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol.5, No.1, February 2000, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals

57

sakuTriv aSS-is usafrTxoebis da ekonomikuri keTildReobis interesebis

dasacavad.

*****

daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saerTaSoriso garemos aRniSnuli

xuTi ZiriTadi procesi da maTi Tanamavali movlenebi, romlebic Cvens mier,

Sesabamisad, ganixilebian, rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis

Sesavalze arsebuli SedarebiT `mudmivi~ parametrebi da konkretuli

cvladebi, gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis zogad

erTian reJims, romelSic gamovyofdiT or urTierTSeRwevad dones:

globalur dones da erovnul dones. globalur doneze, sistemis mizania

saerTaSoriso garemos usafrTxoebis, politikuri stabilurobis da

ekonomikuri keTildReobis uzrunvelyofa; erovnul doneze, sistemis

mizania sakuTriv aSS-is erovnuli usafrTxoebis, politikuri

stabilurobis da ekonomikuri keTildReobis uzrunvelyofa. rogorc

avRniSneT, mocemuli doneebi urTierTSeRwevadia, anu sistemis warmateba

erT doneze ganapirobebs mis warmatebas meore doneze.

bunebrivia, sistemis gamosavalze Zevs amgvari ormagi miznis miRwevis

konkretuli saSualebebi, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, SeiZleba ganekuTvnebodnen

rogorc `deklaraciul,~ aseve `operaciul~ SedegTa dones. Tumca amgvar

SedegTa simravles aerTianebs erTi saerTo veqtori -- politikuri,

usafrTxoebis da ekonomikuri profilis mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso

struqturebis, rogorc dasaxuli miznebis ganxorcielebis yvelaze

efeqturi instrumentebis, gamoyeneba.

Semdgomi Tavis mizania mocemuli periodisTvis, aSS-is sagareo

politikis sistemis operirebis garemos meore Sris - Sidapolitikuri

garemos daxasiaTeba da im SedarebiT `mudmivi~ parametrebis gamoyofa,

romlebic sistemis Sesaval etapze gansazRvraven misi operiebis zogad

reJimebs. Cvens mizans aseve warmoadgens ganvsazRvroT, Tu ra korelacia

arsebobs saerTaSoriso da Sida garemos aRweril parametrebs Soris.

58

2.3 aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemo

rogorc avRniSneT, Cvens mier gamoyofilia saxelmwifos

Sidapolitikuri garemos, rogorc saxelmwifos sagareo politikis sistemis

funqcionirebis garemos erT-erTi qvesistemis, ori ZiriTadi struqtura:

socialur-ekonomikuri da ideologiuri struqtura. aRniSnuli

struqturebi da maTi Semadgeneli komponentebi, Cveni kvlevis miznebis

Sesabamisad, saSualebas gvaZlevs gamovyoT mocemuli periodisaTvis aSS-is

Sidapolitikuri garemos ZiriTadi procesebi da am procesebis Semadgeneli

movlenebi, rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli

SedarebiT mudmivi parametrebi da maTi Semadgeneli konkretuli cvladebi.

2.3.1 socialur-ekonomikuri struqtura.

socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis gamoyofili parametrebi asaxavs im

ZiriTad procesebs, romlebic ukavSirdebian socialur -ekonomikuri

struqturis zemoaRniSnul sam ZiriTad makroekonomikur komponents--

ekonomikis zrdis temps, biujetis Sesrulebis dones da savaWro balanss.

migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli procesebi yvelaze mkafiod gansazRvravs

saxelmwifo politikas, romelic Tanamedrove amerikuli sabazro

ekonomikis pirobebSi wamyvan rols TamaSobs socialur-ekonomikuri

prioritetebis formirebaSi. 1 Tavis mxriv, socialur-ekonomikuri

procesebis asaxva sagareo politikaze swored rom saxelmwifos

ekonomikuri marTvis funqciiT aris gaSualebuli.

1989-2000 wlebis periodi literaturaSi ZiriTad daxasiaTebulia,

rogorc ekonomikuri zrdis periodi, romelic mimdinareobs saxelmwifos

mkacri fiskaluri politikis fonze (Cegzy^ 2001^ cnh&12). miuxedavad amgvari

saerTo suraTisa, mocemul periodSi, arsebuli socialur-ekonomikuri

realobis gaTvaliswinebiT, Cven gamovyofT or -- 1989-1995 da 1995-2000

1 magaliTad, 1920-iani wlebis bolosa da 30 wlebis dasawyisis ekonomikuri krizisis periodSi, aSS-is mTavrobis socialur-ekonomikuri politikis analizi ix. naSromSi:

Rfxfhfdf D&D& Cjwbfkmyj-"rjyjvbxtcrfz Gjkbnbrf U&Uedthf^ 1929-1933 uu& Rfyl& Lbccthnfwbz^ Vjcrdf^ 1980

59

wlebis -- periods, romelic ekonomikuri zrdis, biujetis Sesrulebis da

savaWro balansis gansxvavebuli tendenciebiT xasiaTdeba.

2.3.1.1 ekonomikuri zrdis tempi

1990 wlisTvis aSS-is realuri ekonomikuri zrdis tempi wliurad

Seadgenda 1.7%-s da mocemuli maCvenebliT aSS CamorCeboda danarCen

mowinave industriul saxelmwifoebs (World Bank Report, 1992, p. 219). arsebobs

saerTo azri imis Taobaze, rom ekonomikuri zrdis tempis Semcireba aSS-is

ekonomikis mwarmoeblurobis dacemis Sedegia. mTlianad, 1989-1995 wlebis

periodSi mwarmoeblurobis saSualo wliuri zrda 1%-is irgvliv meryeobs.

mocemuli periodis ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT dabali tempi, pirvel

rigSi, ukavSirdeba 1990-1991 wlebis recesias, xolo garkveuli aRmasvla 1992

wlidan, ufro metad recesiasTan mimarTebiT SedarebiTi gaumjobesebis

xasiaTs atarebs. 1 mwarmoeblurobis dacema, Tavis mxriv, ukavSirdeba iseT

socialur-ekonomikur cvladebs, rogoricaa Semosavlebis Semcireba,

umuSevrobis zrda, sawarmoebis gakotreba da sxva (Bureau of Economic Analysis,

2002).

1989-1995 wlebis periodis ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT neli tempi

Cvens mier ganixileba, rogorc aSS sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze

arsebuli garemos parametri. aRniSnuli parametri, Tavis mxriv, iwvevs

iseT mizanmimarTul makroekonomikuli cvladebis amoqmedebas, romlebic

mimarTulia aRniSnuli tendenciis Secvlaze. maT Soris ZiriTadia

saxelmwifos, rogorc ekonomiuri politikis gamtareblis, orientacia: --

kapitalis 2 sawarmoo resursebis akumulirebaze; -- saxelmwifo danazogis

gazrdaze; -- Sida da ucxouri pirdapiri da portfeluri investiciebis

ganviTarebaze da sxva. aRniSnul makroekonomikur cvladebs Cven

ganvixilavT, rogorc sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebul

cvladebsac. Cven ar ganvixilavT TiToeuli am cvladis uSualo

1 TviT recesiis periodi, romelsac bevri sparseTis yuris oms ukavSirebs, xasiaTdeba mTliani Sida produqtis zrdis klebiT 1.8%-dan 0.5%-mde. 2 pirvel rigSi, igulisxmeba fizikuri kapitali.

60

zemoqmedebas sagareo poltikis sistemaze, magram avRniSnavT, rom maTi

erToblivi zemoqmedeba swored rom gansazRvravs aRniSnuli parametris

erTian zemoqmedebas sistemis operirebis reJimze.

SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom aRniSnuli parametri, romelic

moiTxovs qveynis ekonomikuri resursebis maqsimalur mobilizacias, amave

dros ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJims, romelic

gulisxmobs: 1. naklebad eqspansiur sagareo politikas da 2. sagareo

politikis ekonomikuri aspeqtebis wamowevas.

1990-iani wlebis meore naxevari ganuxreli ekonomikuri zrdis

periodia, rodesac mSp-s procentuli maCvenebeli izrdeba 2.7%-dan 1995

wels, 4.1%-mde 2000 wels, xolo mwarmoeblurobis saSualo wliuro zrda

3%-is irgvliv meryeobs. 1995-2000 wlebSi ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT

maRali tempi da stabiluri xasiaTi Cvens mier ganixileba rogorc sgareo

politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli parametri, romelic gansazRvarvs

sistemis operirebis Sesabamis reJims. aRniSnuli parametri, Tavis mxriv,

iwvevs makroekonomikuli cvladebis amoqmedebas, romlebic mimarTulia

aRmavali ekonomikuri ciklis `Serbilebaze~, ekonomikis e.w. `gadaxurebis~

Tavidan asacileblad. es cvladebi, pirvel rigSi, gulisxmobs: 1. warmoebis

faqtorebis intensiur ganviTarebas (SeadrebiT eqstensiur ganviTrebasTan);

da 2. mastabilizirebeli fulad-sakredito politikis gatarebas. miviCnevT,

rom am cvladebis erToblivi zemoqmedeba sagareo politikis sistemaze

swored rom gansazRvravs aRniSnuli parametris -- ekonomiuri zrdis

maRali tempis -- erTian zemoqmedebas sistemis operirebis reJimze.

migvaCnia, rom miuxedavad erTi SexedviT arsebuli winaaRmdegobisa,

mocemuli parametris sapasuxod, sagareo sistemis operirebis reJimi aseve

iTvaliswinebs: 1. naklebad eqspansiur sagareo politikas. 2. sagareo

politikis ekonomikur aspeqtebze fokusirebas.

2.3.1.2 biujetis Sesruleba

61

1989-1995 wlebSi ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT dabali tempisa da

orwliani recesiis paralelurad, mimdinareobs meore procesi - biujetis

deficitis ganviTareba da, Sesabamisad, saxelmwifo valis zrda.

rogorc cnobilia, saxelmwifo biujetis deficiti uaryofiT

saxelmwifo danazogs 1 asaxavs da Sesabamisad amcirebs sasesxo kapitalis

miwodebas, zrdis sargeblis ganakveTs da amcirebs investiciebis

moculobas. amave dros, aSS-is Ria ekonomikaSi sasesxo kapitalis

miwodebis SemcirebasTan erTad mcirdeba wminda ucxouri investiciebi, 2

rac Tavis mxriv, gulisxmobs realuri savaluto kursis zrdas, amerikuli

saqonlis gaZvirebas da eqsportis Semcirebas. sabiujeto deficiti iwvevs

savaWro deficitis zrdas, rasac ekonomistebi `tyup deficitsac~ uwodeben.

aRniSnul movlenebs Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc aSS sagareo politikis

sistemis Sesavalze arsebul cvladebs, romlebic intensivobis xarisxis

mixedviT Sesabamis zemoqmedebas axdenen sistemaze; aRniSnuli cvladebis

zemoqmedebis erTobliobas ganvixilavT, rogorc erTiani, SedarebiT

mudmivi parametris-- sabiujeto deficitis--zemoqmedebas sagareo politikis

sistemaze. sabiujeto deficitis parametris sapasuxod, romelic Sida

politikur doneze saxelmwifosgan moiTxovs mkacri fiskaluri politikis

gatarebas, sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJimi aseve gulisxmobs:

1. naklebad eqspansiur sagareo politikas; 2. sagareo politikis ekonomikur

aspeqtebze fokusirebas.

aTwleulis meore naxevridan, ekonomikuri zrda aisaxeba biujetis

deficitis Semcirebaze. Tu 1996 wels biujetis deficiti jer kidev mSp-s

1.5%-s Seadgenda, 1999 wlisTvis proficitma -- 1.3%, xolo 2000 w. 2.3%

Seadginda. Sesabamisad, izrdeba mTliani saxelmwifo danazogi deficituri

8.5 miliardidan 1995 wels, 462.7 miliardamde 2000 wels. MmTliani

1 saxelmwifo, an sxvagvarad sazogadoebrivi, danazogi ekonomistebis mier daxasiaTebulia, rogorc sxvaoba sagadasaxado Semosavlebsa da saqonlisa da momsaxurebisaTvis gaweul saxelmwifo xarjebze. (ix. g. menqiu, ekonomikis principebi, 2000, gv. 726) 2 wminda ucxouri investiciebi ekonomistebis mier daxasiaTebulia, rogorc sxvaoba qveynis moqalaqeebis mier ucxour aqtivebSi gadaxdil Tanxasa da ucxo qveynis moqalaqeebis mier samamulo aqtivebSi gadaxdil Tanxas Soris. (ix. g. menqiu, ekonomikis principebi, 2000, gv. 850)

62

saxelmwifo investiciebic izrdeba 238.2 miliardidan 1995 wels, 318.3

miliardamde 2000 wels, rac daaxloebiT orjer aRemateba Sesabamis

maCvenebels 1989-1995 wlebis periodSi (Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2002).

aRniSnuli cvladebis zemoqmedebis erTobliobas ganvixilivaT,

rogorc erTiani, SedarebiT mudmivi parametris -- biujetis proficitis --

zemoqmedebas sagareo politikis sistemaze.

biujetis proficitis parametris sapasuxod, romelic Sida

politikur doneze iwvevs naklebad SezRuduli saxelmwifo ekonomikuri

politikis gatarebas (kerZod, izrdeba saxelmwifo Sesyidvebi da

investiciebi), sagareo politikis sisitemis operirebis reJimi gulisxmobs:

1. ufro eqspansiur sagareo politikas; 2. sagareo politikis ekonomikur

aspeqtebze fokusirebas, rac, amave dros, ukve didwilad ganapirobebs aSS-

is saerTaSoriso valdebulebebis Sesrulebas.

2.3.1.3 savaWro balansi

gamoyofili ekonomikuri zrdis tempis da biujetis Sesrulebis

wyvili parametrebi, korelaciaSia mesame parametrTan -- savaWro balansTan.

mTlianobaSi, bolo 50 wlis ganmavlobaSi, aSS eqsporti da importi,

rogorc mSp-s procentuli wili saerTo zrdis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba.

magram rogorc zemoT avRniSneT, 1980-iani wlebidan 1995 wlis CaTvliT,

sabiujeto deficitis fonze viTardeba `tyupi deficitis~ fenomeni da 1995

w. savaWro deficiti 110 miliard dolars Seadgens. sagulisxmoa, rom 1990-

iani wlebis meore naxevarSi, sabiujeto deficitis daZlevis fonze, savaWro

deficiti kidev ufro izrdeba da 2000 wlisTvis aRwevs mocemuli

aTwleulis piks -- 445 miliards. es tendencia am SemTxvevaSi ukve sxva

procesebTan aris dakavSirebuli, da aSS-is ekonomikis zrdas ukavSirdeba. 1

1 kerZod, aq ukve saxezea savaWro partniorebTan urTierTqmedebis ufro swrafi ganviTareba da aSS-is adgilobrivi moxmarebis zrda, risi dakmayofilebac ukve ver xerxdeba Sida warmoebiT, xolo gansxvaveba warmoebasa da moxmarebas Soris gazrdili importiT kompensirdeba. amave dros, aSS-is mzardi ekonomika sul ufro metad momxiblavi xdeba ucxoeli Tu adgilobrivi investorebisaTvis, romelTa mzardi moTxovna

63

Cven ar ganvixilavT savaWro deficitis gamomwvev calkeul faqtorebis, anu

sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli cvladebis konkretul

zemoqmedebas sistemaze. Tumca aRniSnuli cvladebis zemoqmedebis

erTobliobas ganvixilavT, rogorc erTiani parametris -- uaryofiTi

savaWro balansis -- zemoqmedebas sagareo politikis sistemaze.

marTalia, ekonomistebs Soris ar arsebobs konsensusi imis Taobaze,

Tu zogadad ramdenad saxifaToa ekonomikisaTvis savaWro deficiti, faqtia,

rom igi erovnuli danazogis Semcirebis tendenciaze miuTiTebs, rac

grZelvadian terminebSi ekonomikuri zrdis Semaferxebeli pirobaa.

Sesabamisad, aRniSnuli parametri iwvevs iseTi makroekonomikuri cvladebis

amoqmedebas, romlebic isev da isev mimarTulia mwarmoeblurobis donis

amaRlebaze. maT Soris, am SemTxvevaSi, ukve ZiriTadia saxelmwifos

orientacia infrastuqturis, ganaTlebis da teqnologiuri inovaciebis

ganviTarebaze, rac Tavis mxriv, Sida resursebis mobilizacias gulisxmobs.

Sesabamisad, sagareo politikis sistemac, romelic reagirebs

uaryofiTi savaWro balansis parametrze, operirebs reJimSi, romelic kvlav

gulisxmobs: 1. naklebad eqspansiur sagareo politikas da 2. sagareo

politikis ekonomikur aspeqtebze fokusirebas.

2.3.2 aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis reagireba socialur-ekonomikuri

struqturis parametrebze.

rogorc avRniSneT, gamoyofili socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis

sapasuxod, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistema operirebs reJimSi, romlis

erT-erT ZiriTad aspeqts warmoadgens SezRuduli, an piriqiT, gazrdili

eqspansiuroba. konkretualad ra Sinaarss vdebT am cnebebSi?

Tu 1970-ian wlebSi Zlieri ekonomika aduRabebda aSS-is aliansebs da

uzrunvelyofda misi samxedro Zalebis ganlagebas msoflios sxvadasxva

kuTxeSi gadasaxadis gadamxdelebze damatebiTi dawolis gareSe, sabiujeto

investirebaze aseve ukve ver kmayofildeba Sida erovnuli danazogebiT. Sesabamisad, viTardeba kidev erTi Tanamavali procesi -- qveynis sagareo valis zrda.

64

da savaWro deficitebis zrdis fonze, politikuri istebliSmenti

iZulebulia gadasinjos Tavisi prioritetebi. Tavs iCens aSS-is Sida

politikur-ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis problemebi, romelTa Soris

ZiriTadia: siRaribis problema, demografiuli mdgomareobis gaureseba,

sapensio uzrunvelyofis problema, samedicino uzrunvelyofis problema,

saganmanaTleblo sistemis araadeqvaturoba, garemos dacvis mdgomareobis

gauareseba da sxva (Cegzy^ 2001^ cnh&12^ Country Profile Table, 2002). aRniSnuli

socialur-ekonomikuri problemebi pirvel rigSi iwvevs saxelmwifos

ekonomikuri politikis Sida prioritetebze koncentracias, rac, bunebrivia,

zRudavs aSS-is `gadaxdisunarianobas~ saerTaSoriso masStabiT. Sesabamisad,

SezRuduli `gadaxdisunarianobis~ pirobebSi, aSS uwindeli warmatebiT

ukve ver axorcielebs mis iseT `aRiarebul~ misiebs, rogoricaa: evropis

usafrTxoebis garantiebis uzrunvelyofa, aRmosavleT aziaSi balansis

SenarCuneba, Tavisufali savaWro zonebis ganviTarebis xelSewyoba,

saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebis mxardaWera. aseve, izRudeba aSS-is

SesaZleblobebi gadaWras saerTaSoriso masStabis calkeuli konkretuli

problemebi, romlebic (SesaZloa arapirdapir) emuqreba mis interesebs.

sapirispirod, eqspansiuri sagareo politika gulisxmobs e.w.

`amerikuli misiis~ warmatebul Sesrulebas, romlis idealizebul, Tumca

tradiculad damkvidrebul orientirs sagareo politikis `moraluri~

TvalTaxedva warmoadgens (qoCoraZe, 2005, gv. 267-275). am orientirs kargad

axasiaTebs ronald reigani, romlis Tanaxmad, aSS-is sagareo politikis

saboloo mizans mTels msoflioSi `Tavisuflebis gavrceleba~ warmoadgens

(Chace, 1992, p.170). Tavisuflebis gavrceleba uaRresad `Zviri~ misiaa, da, isev

da isev, misi warmateba aSS-is gadaxdisunarianobazea damokidebuli.

miviCnevT, rom rogorc SedarebiT SezRuduli aseve, eqspansiuri

sagareo politika, eyrdnoba sagareo politikis ekonomikur mimarTulebas,

rogorc saerTaSoriso valdebulebebis Tu amocanebis Sesrulebis erT-erT

ZiriTad instruments. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom mocemul periodSi, sagareo

65

ekonomikuri politikis ganviTarebaSi ori tendencia upirispirdeba

erTmaneTs.

1. pirveli tendencia, romelic ufro metad axasiaTebs SedarebiT

SezRuduli ekonomikuri ganviTarebis konteqsts, mimarTulia sakuTriv

aSS-is ekonomikuri interesebis gatarebaze. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom es

tendencia ZiriTadad ganpirobebulia mikroekonomikuri faqtorebiT da

reagirebs konkretuli kompaniebis da mrewvelobis dargebis lobirebaze.

mTlianobaSi, sagareo politikis sistemis gamosaval etapze (da ZiriTadad

operaciul doneze, romelic, am SemTxvevaSi, upirispirdeba deklaraciul

dones) es tendencia gulisxmobs proteqcionistuli savaWro politikis

gatarebas da, garkveul wilad, saerTaSoriso vaWrobis liberalizaciis

Seferxebas. mag. 1988 wlidan 1995 wlamde `mwarmoeblis subsidirebis

ekvivalentis~ (PSE) maCvenebeli meryeobs 21%-30% Soris. aTwleulis meore

naxevarSi, aRniSnuli maCvenebeli klebulobs da meryeobs 13%- 16% Soris. 1

am tendenciis Sesabamisad, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze,

rogorc deklaraciul, aseve operaciul doneebze, SemuSavebulia

ekonomikuri politikis konkretuli mimarTulebebi, romlebic xels uwyoben

aSS-is biznesis SeRwevas ucxour bazrebze. 2 aRniSnuli mimarTulebebi

gansakuTrebiT gamoikveTeba 90-iani wlebis pirvel naxevarSi, rodesac,

magaliTad, NAFTA-s CarCoebSi, aSS meqsikisa da kanadisagan iTxovs

ekologiuri da SromiTi kanonmdeblobis gatarebas.

2. meore tendencia, romelic ufro metad ukavSirdeba ekonomikuri

aRmavlobis konteqsts da ufro metad reagirebs makroekonomikur

faqtorebze, mimarTulia `globaluri finansuri arqiteqturis~

reformirebaze. aRniSnuli mizani, pirvel rigSi, gulisxmobs finansuri da

1 Sesabamisi maCveneblebis mimoxilva ix: The Level of Support for Agriculture in OECD Countries, Economic Perspectives, USIA Electronic Journal, Vol. 4, No.2, May 1999; http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/ 2 am mimarTulebebs ganekuTvneba: ucxoeTis saxelmwifoTa mier samrewvelo dargebis deregulacia; ucxoeTis saxelmwifoebis mier Sromisa da garemos dacvis standartebis dacva; aSS-is inteleqtualuri sakuTrebis dacva. samive mimarTulebis mizania gamoricxos aSS eqsportis maRali Rirebuleba ucxour bazrebze.

66

ekonomikuri sistemebis gamWvirvalobas da emsaxureba globaluri

ekonomikis stabilurobis xelSewyobas.

sagareo politikis sistemis Sedegebis operaciul doneze, aRniSnuli

tendencia gamoixateba aSS-is mxridan saerTaSoriso savaluto fondze (ssf)

zewolaSi, wevri qveynebis mier finansuri da ekonomikuri indikatorebis

sajaroebis gasazrdelad. 1 meore mxriv, globaluri finansuri

arqiteqturis reformireba aseve gulisxmobs ssf-s gaZlierebas, raTa mas

aSS-sagan damoukideblad SeeZlos SesaZlo finansuri krizisebis acileba. 2

globaluri ekonomikis stabilurobis xelSewyobas emsaxureba agreTve

msoflio bankis da sxvadasxva regionaluri bankebis ganviTarebis

programebi. magram, iseve rogorc ssf-s SemTxvevaSi, aqac politikuri

istebliSmentis damokidebuleba ar aris erTmniSvnelovani, gansakuTrebiT,

arsebuli funqcionaluri gadafarvebis gaTvaliswinebiT. Sesabamisad,

kongresi, romelic 1998 w. iRebs ssf-s 18,000 milioniani dafinansebis pakets,

iTxovs ssf-s, msoflio bankis da regionaluri bankebis muSaobis reformas,

wevr saxelmwifoTa gazrdili pasuxismgeblobis fonze. 3

`globaluri finansuri arqiteqturis~ reformirebis meore ZiriTad

mimarTulebas warmoadgens saerTaSoriso vaWrobis liberalizacia,

1 am mimarTebiT, ukve 1996 wels ssf-m SemoiRo: 1. `monacemTa gavrcelebis specialuri standarti~ (Special Data Dissemination Standard ), romelic ayalibebs wevr saxelmwifoTa mier sajarod warmodgenili ekonomikuri da finansuri monacemebis kriteriumebs; da 2. `monacemTa gavrcelebis zogadi standarti~ (General Data Dissemination Standard), romelic xels uwyobs aRniSnul monacemTa Segrovebis optimizacias. 1998 wels didi Svideulis samitze berminhemSi, aSS-is TaosnobiT ssf-s winaSe daisaxa damatebiTi amocanebi saxelmwifoTa finansuri da ekonomikuri informaciis gamWvrivalobis gasaumjobeseblad. 2 marTlac, samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis krizisis Semdeg, ssf-Si iqmneba axali 50,000 milion dolariani sagangebo sarezervo fondi (New Arrangements to Borrow) da damatebiTi sakredito saSualebebi (Supplemental Reserve Facility; Contingent Credit Line) finansuri krizisebis Tavidan asacileblad.

3 aRniSnuli mtkiceba efuZneba Semdeg wyaroebs: Gramm, Phil (Senator, Chairman of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, United States Senate), Reforming and Refocusing the International Monetary Fund, "Reforming the International Financial Institutions," An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol. 6, No.1, February 2001 (http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/); Meltzer, Allan (Professor of political Economy and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University), Reforming the International Financial Institutions: A Plan for Financial Stability and Economic Development, "Reforming the International Financial Institutions," An Electronic Journal of the U.S. Department of State, Vol. 6, No.1, February 2001 (http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/);

67

ZiriTadad msoflio savaWro organizaciis (WTO) meSveobiT. Cven ukve

visaubreT saerTaSoriso vaWrobis liberalizaciis ormagi datvirTvis

Taobaze, sadac aSS cdilobs uzrunvelyos ormagi mizani: wamyvani rolis

damkvidreba ekonomikur mmarTvelobaSi; da sakuTari interesebis lobireba

axali ekonomikuri sivrceebis farglebSi. aq wina planze wamovwevT aSS-is

Zalisxmevas uzrunvelyos WTO-s procesis ganviTareba saerTaSoriso

konsensusis, rogorc globaluri finansuri arqiteqturis ganviTarebis

umTavresi pirobis, safuZvelze.

WTO-s procesis ganviTarebis sakmaod winaaRmdegobriv fonze, aSS

aqtiurad ibrZvis mocemuli amocanis misaRwevad. klintonis administracia

acxadebs, rom procesis Semdgomi ganviTareba damokidebulia swored rom

industriuli qveynebis mzadyofnaze gaauqmon savaWro barierebi ekonomikis

yvelaze mgrZnobiare seqtorebSi. kerZod, aSS-is iniciativa ZiriTadad

mimarTulia: 1. eqsportis subsidirebis moxsnaze; 2. tarifebis dawevasa da

importis qvotebis gazrdaze; da 3. saxelmwifo savaWro uwyebebis reformaze

(Aaron, 2000). Tumca, rogorc zemoTac aRiniSna, Znelia mkafio zRvaris

gatareba, erTi mxriv, WTO- s procesis xelSewyobas, rogorc `globaluri

finansuri arqiteqturis~ reformirebis erT-erT mimarTulebasa da, meore

mxriv, sakuTriv aSS-is ekonomikur interesebis lobirebas Soris, vinaidan

aRniSnuli procesi, saboloo jamSi, aSS-is eqsports emsaxureba. 1

*****

amgvarad, Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis sam

ZiriTad komponentTan dakavSirebuli procesebi da maTi Tanamavali

movlenebi, romlebic, Sesabamisad, Cvens mier ganixileba, rogorc sagareo

politikis sistemis Sesavalze arsebuli SedarebiT mudmivi parametrebi da

maTi Semadgeneli cvladebi, gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis

operirebis zogad reJims, romelSic gamovyofdiT or urTierTSeRewevad,

1 es aspeqti, isev da isev, yvelaze mkafiod gamoikveTeba soflis meurneobis dargSi, sadac aSS-is mzardi mwarmoebluroba da adgilobrivi bazris gajerebuloba sul ufro metad zrdis amerikuli agrobiznesis damokidebulebas ucxoeTis bazrebze.

68

globalur da erovnul dones. globalur doneze sistemis mizania

globaluri ekonomikuri stabilurobis xelSewyoba; xolo erovnul doneze

-- sakuTriv aSS-is ekonomikuri interesebis lobireba. sistemis

gamosavalze Zevs aRniSnuli reJimebis ganxorcielebis konkretuli

politikuri saSualebebi, romlebic ganekuTvnebian rogorc `deklaraciul~

aseve `operaciul~ SedegTa kategorias. amgvar SedegTa erT-erT

erTobliobad miviCnevT finansuri da savaWro profilis saerTaSoriso

institutebis gamoyenebas. amavdroulad, aRniSnul doneebze sistemis

operirebis balansi (anu Tu operirebis romeli donea wamyvani drois

garkveul monakveTze) ganapirobebs sistemis operirebis metad, Tu naklebad

eqspansiur xasiaTs, anu im xarisxs, romliTac sruldeba `amerikuli misia~

msoflio masStabiT.

2.3.3 korelacia saerTaSoriso garemos parametrebs da Sidapolitikuri

garemos socialur-ekonomikur parametrebs Soris

SesaZleblad migvaCnia Semdegi korelaciebis Cveneba saerTaSoriso

garemos parametrebsa da Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikur

parametrebs Soris:

dadebiTi datvirTvis korelaciad miviCnevT korelacias, erTi mxriv,

komunizmis damarcxebis, axali ekonomikuri centrebis warmoqmnis da

saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis parametrebs da,

meore mxriv, aSS-is ekonomikuri aRmavlobis parametrebs Soris. am

mimarTebiT, wminda Teoriul doneze miviCnevT, rom komunizmis damarcxebam

xeli Seuwyo axali savaWro SesaZleblobebis warmoqmnas, ramac Tavisi

garkveuli wvlili Seitana aSS-is savaWro brunvis zrdaSi, ekonomikuri

zrdis miRwevasa da biujetis deficitis daZlevaSi. Tumca pirdapiri

korelacia, ra Tqma unda, dafarulia mravli sxva faqtoris zemoqmedebiT.

ufro naTelia uSualo kavSiri civi omis dasrulebasa da aSS-is Tavdacvis

biujetidan asobiT milardi dolaris gamonTavisuflebas Soris, rac

struqturuli reformebis ganxorcielebas moxmarda.

69

aseve, erTi mxriv, axali ekonomikuri centrebis ganviTarebiT

ganpirobebulma gazrdilma konkurenciam da saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi

urTierTkavSiriT ganpirobebulma globalizaciis procesebma Tavisi

wvlili Seitanes aSS-is savaWro brunvis zrdaSi, ekonomikuri zrdis

miRwevasa da biujetis deficits daZlevaSi. 1

uaryofiTi datvirTvis korelaciad miviCnevT korelacias, erTi mxriv,

arastabilurobis axali kerebis warmoqmnas da axali safrTxeebis

ganviTarebasa, da meore mxriv, aSS-is ekonomikur daRmavlobas Soris, sadac

savaWro SesaZleblobebis Sekveca, ekonomikuri sanqciebisa da aSS-is

samxedro mzadyofnis aucilebloba uaryofiTad aisaxeba savaWro brunvaze

da sabiujeto deficitis daZlevaze.

arsebuli korelacia saerTaSoriso garemos da Sidapolitikuri

garemos socalur-ekonomikuri struqturis parametrebs Soris aisaxeba

Sesabamis korelaciaSi aRniSnuli parametrebiT ganpirobebuli sagareo

politikis sistemis operirebis reJimebs Soris. kerZod, SeiZleba

aRiniSnos pirdapiri korelacia, da mniSvnelovani gadafarvac ki, sagareo

politikis sistemis operirebis gansxvavebuli reJimebis doneebs Soris:

erTi Mmxriv, saerTaSoriso garemos usafrTxoebis da politikuri

stabilurobis uzrunvelyofis `globalur" dones da saerTaSoriso

ekonomikuri stabilurobis uzrunvelyofis `globalur~ dones Soris, da

meore mxriv, aSS-is erovnuli usafrTxoebis da politikuri stabilurobis

uzrunvelyofis èrovnul~ dones da sakuTari ekonomikuri interesebis

lobirebis èrovnul~ dones Soris. Sesabamisad, sistemis operirebis

`globaluri~ da èrovnuli~ doneebis balansi ganapirobebs sistemis

operirebis eqspansiurobis xarisxs, imisda mixedviT, Tu romeli done aris

dominanturi drois mocemul monakveTze.

1 mTlianobaSi 1991-1999 wlebSi mSp-Si sagareo vaWrobis brunvis wili 4.8 procentuli punqtiT gaizarda, SedarebiT 80-ian wlebTan, sadac am maCvenebelis zrda 3.5 procentul punqts Seadgenda.

70

2.3.4 ideologiuri struqtura

ideologiur struqturas Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc mocemuli

sazogadoebis kulturul, istoriul da politikur tradiciebze

dafuZnebul RirebulebaTa erTobliobas, romelic gansazRvravs mocemul

sazogadoebaSi mTavrobis rolsa da miznebs. Sesabamisad, aSS-is

pluralisturi sazogadoebis ideologiuri struqturis ZiriTadi

parametrebis gamoyofisas vixelmZRvanelebT kriteriumiT, romlis Tanaxmad

aRniSnuli struqturis funqcionireba mimarTulia misTvis damaxasiaTebeli

demokratiuli Rirebulebebis SenarCunebasa da ganmtkicebaze. amdenad, Cven

gamovyofT parametrebs, romlebic asaxavs aSS-is ideologiuri struqturis

zemoT aRniSnuli komponentebis funqcionirebas, mimarTuls TiToeuli

maTganis ZiriTadi Rirebulebebis SenarCunebasa da ganmtkicebaze.

2.3.4.1 politikuri partiebi

aSS-is ori ZiriTadi politikuri partiis - demokratiuli da

respublikuri partiebis - funqcionirebis daxasiaTebisas Cven amovdivarT

ori ZiriTadi daSvebidan: 1. aSS-is politikuri partiebi ayeneben ra

erovnuli masStabis sakiTxebs da asaxaven ra mosaxleobis farTo fenebis

moTxovnebs, warmoadgenen demokratiis maJoritaruli modelis1

ganxorcielebis saSualebas; da 2. aSS-is politikuri partiebi,

gansazRvraven ra xelisuflebis qmedebis ideologiur platformebs,

warmoadgenen misi aRmasrulebeli da sakanonmdeblo Stoebis dakavSirebis

saSualebas. amave dros, Tu vixelmZRvanelebT zemoT aRniSnuli

kriteriumiT, rom politikuri partiebis, rogorc saxelmwifos

ideologiuri struqturis komponentebis, funqcionireba mimarTulia maTi

tradiciuli Rirebulebebis ganmtkicebaze, SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba,

rom: 1. partiebis maJoritaruli demokratiis gatarebis funqcia

1 demokratiis maJoritaruli modelis Tanaxmad, `xelisuflebis pasuxismgebloba xalxis moTxovnilebebis mimarT xorcieldeba masebis politikaSi monawileobis saSualebiT.~ (q. janda, j. beri, j. goldmeni, `amerikuli demokratia,~ Tbilsi, 1995, gv. 181)

71

korelaciaSia maTi ideologiuri poziciebis dapirispirebasTan; xolo 2.

xelisuflebis ori Stos dakavSirebis funqcia korelaciaSia partiebis

ideologiuri poziciebis daaxloebasTan.

amdenad, gamovyofT ideologiuri struqturis aRniSnuli komponentis

-- politikuri partiebis -- or parametrs: 1. ideologiur dapirispirebas; da

2. ideologiur daaxloebas.

partiaTa wminda ideologiuri dapirispireba/daaxloebis

paralelurad, Cven aseve ganvixilavT partiaTa `saxelisuflebo~

dapirisipireba/ daaxloebas, romelTac adgili aqvT, erTi mxriv, kongressa

da prezidents Soris da, meore mxriv, kongresis SigniT. am tipis

dapirispireba/daaxloebas Cven davaxasiaTebT, rogorc `zednaSenur~

movlenebs, romlebic efuZneba ideologiur dapirispireba/daaxloebas.

aRniSnuli parametrebis, da maTi Semadgeneli cvladebis, zemoqmedebas

aSS sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJimze gavaanalizebT

socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis gamoyofili parametrebis konteqstSi.

1989-1995 wlebis negatiuri socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis fonze,

gamovyofT Semdeg principul dapirspirebebs:

saarCevno 1992 wlisaTvis, kongresis demokrati liderebi Sida

socialur-ekonomikur problemebs pirdapir ukavSirebdnen aSS-is uunarobas

etvirTa `amerikuli misia~ msoflio masStabiT (Hamilton, 1992, pp.32-51).

demokratebi konkretulad akritikebdnen buSis administraciis `sabWoTa

politikas~, romelic, maTi mtkicebiT, moklebuli iyo erTian strategiul

xedvas (Congressional Record, November 20, 1991). 1990 da 1992 wlebis

warmomadgenelTa palatis arCevnebi inarCunebs demokratebis umravlesobas,

romelic sul ufro metad amZafrebs saxelisuflebo dapirispirebas

prezidentTan (1992 Congressional Quarterly Almanac, p.5). rogorc avRniSneT,

amgvari dapirispireba zednaSenuri xasiaTisaa, romelic partiul-

ideologiur dapirispirebas efuZneba da romlis aqcentebic Sesabamisad

Zevs qveynis Sida ganviTarebisa da misi saerTaSoriso rolis gansxvavebul

xedvaSi. arsebobs Sexeduleba, rom civi omis dasrulebisa da sparseTis

72

yures omSi gamarjvebis Semdeg, buSs hqonda realuri SesaZlebloba mieRwia

orpartiuli konsensusisTvis sagareo politikaSi (Gergen, 1992, p. 12), magram

buSma ver SesZlo amgvari konsensusis miRweva. yvelaze gavrcelebuli

interpretaciiT, civi omis Semdgomi periodis sxva liderebis msgavsad,

buSi Tavs aridebda did `programul~ proeqtebs, romlebic ukve

araaqtualuri iyo àxali realiebisaTvis~ (Drucker, 1994, pp.106-112). Cven

migvaCnia, rom buSis warumatebloba ganexorcielebina or-partiul

konsensusze dafuZnebuli àxali msoflio wesrigis~ doqtrina, pirvel

rigSi, ganpirobebuli iyo mocemuli periodis Sida socialur-ekonomikuri

parametrebiT, romlebic uSualod moqmedebdnen respublikeli prezidentis

reitingze. Tumca aq umTavresi swored is garemoebaa, rom aRniSnuli

faqtorebi zRudavdnen aSS-is rogorc sakanonmdeblo, aseve aRmasrulebeli

xelisuflebis unars realurd etvirTa saerTaSoriso lideris roli

àxali msoflio wesrigis~ dasamkvidreblad. igive mizeziT, prezident

klintonis gamarjvebiT xelisuflebis orive StoSi demokratebis

damkvidrebis pirobebSi, verc demokratulma partiam SesZlo moepovebina

axali drois dominanturi partiis roli. 1994 wlis e.w. `revoluciuri~

arCevnebisaTvis, 103-e mowvevis demokratul kongress amerikuli presa

axasiaTebda, rogorc yvelaze araefeqtur kongress, sadac respublikelebis

da e.w. àxali demokratebis~ dapirispirebam piks swored Sida politikur

sakiTxebze miaRwia.

mocemul periodSi gamovyofT principuli daaxloebis Semdeg

tendenciebs:

1992 saarCevno wlisTvis, `saxelisuflebo~ daaxloeba kvlav

fiskaluri sakiTxebiT iyo ganpirobebuli, rodesac buSi TanamSromlobda

orive partiasTan sabiujeto deficitis Sesamcireblad (Paget, 1996).

daaxloebis tendencia mkafiod gamoikveTa sagareo politikis sferoSi,

sadac xelisuflebis orive Stos mier sagareo politikis `racionaluri~

safuZvlis Zieba daaxloebis winapiroba xdeba. gamoikveTa ramdenime

mimarTuleba, romelsac miuxedavad partiuli mikuTvnebulobisa, iziarebda

73

rogorc kongresi, aseve TeTri saxlis administracia. 1 amave dros, rogorc

demokratebis, aseve respublikelebis winasaarCevno programebSi gamosWvivis

sagareo politikis internacionalisturi xasiaTi, romelic partniorebTan

TanamSromlobazea orientirebuli (Hamilton, 1992, pp. 32-51; Leach, 1992, pp.17-31;

Ornstein, 1992, pp.1-16, Yankelovich, 1992, pp.1-12).

mocemuli socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis negatiuri parametrebis

pirobebSi, romlebic amave dros viTardebian saerTaSoriso garemos

mouwesrigeblobis, arastabilurobis da dezintegraciis maxasiaTeblebis

aRwerili parametrebis fonze, politikuri partiebis daaxloeba-

dapirsipirebis parametrebi (da maTi Semadgeneli cvladebi) sagareo

politikis sistemis Sesavalzeve gansazRvraven misi operirebis uaRresad

winaaRmdegobriv reJims da, Sesabamisad, winaaRmdegobriv Sedegebs.

yofili sabWoTa kavSiris mimarT amgvar SedegTa TvalsaCino magaliTs

warmoadgens kongresis ukiduresi kritikis fonze, administraciis mier

wamoyenebuli `Tavisuflebis mxardaWeris aqtis~ kanonproeqti (Freedom

Support Act). aRniSnuli kanonproeqti realurad warmoadgenda administraciis

mcdelobas moepovebina kongresis mxardaWera misi `sabWoTa politikis~

mimarT. meore mxriv, arc kongresi da arc prezidenti ar Cqarobdnen

sagareo daxmarebis damtkicebasTan dakavSirebuli politikuri safasuris

gaRebas. `aqtis~ irgvliv gamarTuli debatebi saukeTesod asaxavda arsebuli

politikuri dapirispirebebis srul speqtrs (bukia, 2000, gv. 50-51).

amgvarad, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom SedarebiTi ekonomikuri daRmavlobis

pirobebSi, politikuri partiebis dapirispirebis parametri, atarebs mkveTr

ideologiur xasiaTs da, pirvel rigSi, korelaciaSia aRweril negatiur

socialur-ekonomikur parametrebTan. meore mxriv, daaxloebis parametri

ufro metad atarebs saxelisuflebo xasiaTs, sadac gamomdinare saerTo

amocanebidan, xdeba orpartiuli kongresis an xelisufleobis orpartiuli

1 es mimarTulebebia: -- aSS-is wamyvani saerTaSoriso rolis ganxorcieleba mravalmxrivi saerTaSoriso monawileobis safuZvelze; -- demokratiuli ganviTarebis xelSewyoba yofil sabWoTa banakSi; -- sagareo politikaSi ekonomikuri sanqciebis da savaWro urTierTobebis mzardi rolis aRiareba.

74

Stoebis poziciaTa Tanxvedra. am SemTxvevaSi, partiaTa saxelisuflebo

daaxloeba, pirvel rigSi, korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso garemos

parametrebTan. mTlianobaSi, partiuli motivaciiT ganpirobebulma

winaaRmdegobrivma urTierTqmedebebma SezRudes aSS-is sagareo politikis

sistemis unari emoqmeda optimalur reJimSi, romelic dafuZnebuli iqneboda

racionalur mimarTebaze xelisuflebis saerTaSoriso da Sidapolitikur

valdebulebebs Soris. Sesabamisad, SeizRuda aSS-is unari, aRmoeCina

qmediTi mxardaWera, rogorc daSlis piras mdgari, aseve Semdgom ukve

calkeul respublikebad daSlili sabWoTa kavSirisadmi.

1995-2000 wlebis ekonomikuri aRmavlobis periodSi, gamovyofT

amerikuli partiebis principuli dapirispirebis Semdeg tendednciebs.

1996 saarCevno wlisTvis, demokrati prezidentisa da respublikuri

kongresis partiuli niSniT dapirispireba ZiriTadad ukavSirdeboda

saerTaSoriso sistemis problemebs da ganisazRvreboda im sirTuleebiT,

romlebic Tan sdevda sagareo politikis orientirebis Camoyalibebas.

literaturaSi amgvari uTanxmoebis mizezad moiazreba, erTi mxriv, civi

omis periodis aliansebis rRveva da, meore mxriv, kongresis fokusireba

saSinao politikis sakiTxebze. arsebobs Sexedulebac, romelic arsebul

uTanxmoebas kongresSi TaobaTa cvlas ukavSirebs (Lindsay, 2000, pp.5-8). Cveni

azriT, arsebuli partiuli uTanxmoeba ganpirobebulia saerTaSoriso

sistemis ganviTarebis parametrebiT da im orpartiuli konsensusis

TandaTanobiTi gaqrobiT, romelic arsebobda civi omisa da uSualod mis

Semdgom periodSi. 1 amave dros, Tu e.w. `pirveli rigis~ dapirispireba aSS-

is saerTaSoriso rolis Taobaze gamoikveTa ufro `internacionalisturad~

ganwyobil TeTr saxlsa da ufro `izolacionisturad~ ganwyobil kongress

Soris, `meore rigis~ dapirispireba aseve partiuli niSniT gamoikveTa TviT

kongress SigniT.

1 kerZod, konsensusis Camoyalibeba principulad ver moxerxda aSS-is saerTaSoriso movlenebSi da, Seabamisad, sagareo operaciebSi monawileobis xarisxis Taobaze.

75

sagulisxmoa is garemoebac, rom mocemuli ekonomikuri aRmavlobis

periodSi, rodesac vaSingtonis sabiujeto debatebis fokusi TandaTanobiT

inacvlebs Warbi saxsrebis mizanmimarTuli gamoyenebis alternativebze,

sagareo daxmarebisa da saerTaSoriso monawileobis sakiTxebi kvlav

dapirispirebis sagnad rCeba da ar figurirebs ganxilul alternativebs

Soris.

migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli dapirispirebebi ZiriTadad saxelisuflebo

xasiaTisaa da ZiriTadad atarebs kongresisa da prezidentis institutebis

tradiciuli konfrontaciis xasiaTs. Tumca, isev-da-isev amgvari

dapirispireba ufro `zednaSenuri~ xasiaTisaa da Tavisi arsiT mainc

partiul-ideologiur dapirispirebas efuZneba.

partiuli niSniT aRniSnuli dapirispirebebis paralelurad,

mimdinareobs ideologiuri daaxloebis procesic. klintonis

administraciis meore vadis periodidan mkafio zRvari partiebis zogad

ideologiur CarCoebs Soris mniSvnelovnad mcirdeba. 1 2000 w.

saprezidento arCevnebma kidev ufro metad warmoaCina partiebis ZiriTadi

poziciebis Tanxvedra. prezidentobis kandidati jorj v. buSi acxadebs

rom igi axali tipis respublikelia, romlis filosofia e.w. `TanamgrZnob

konservatizmSi~ mdgomareobs (The Economist, July 1, 2000, pp.23-25). Tavis mxriv,

umciresobaSi yofnis xuTi wlis Semdeg, demokratebi acxadeben, rom isini

swored rom `axali tipis~ demokratebi arian, romlebic bevrad ufro

`demokratiuli~ mmarTvelobis ganxorcielebas isaxaven miznad. 2

1 SeiZleba iTqvas, rom amerikis finansuri elita aRar aris sworxazovnad

asocirebuli respublikur partiasTan. magaliTad, bolo xuTi saprezidento arCevnebis analizma aSS-is yvelaze mdidar 100 qalaqSi uCvena, rom demokratebis wil mosuli xmebis raodenoba gaizarda 25%-idan 1980 wels, 41%-mde 1996 wels. xolo 1996 w. klintonma 17 umdidresi saarCevno olqidan, 13-Si moipova gamarjveba.

2 kongresSi sul ufro Zlierdeba demkratebis zomieri fraqcia `blu dog-i~

romelic Tavis wevrebs Soris biznesis warmoamdgenelebsac aerTianebs. fraqcia im centristuli jgufis dasayrdenia, romelic uwin SedarebiT ugulebelyofili iyo demokratebis ZiriTadi birTvis mier, magram TandaTanobiT sul ufro angariSgasawevi gaxda.

76

SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom ganxilul periodSi partiebis

daaxloebis parametri ufro metad ideologiuri xasiaTisaa da

ganpirobebulia Sesabamisi socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebiT, romlebic

erTi mxriv, xels uwyoben aSS sazogadoebis socialur-ekonomikur

harmonizacias, xolo meore mxriv, ganapirobeben partiebis ideologiuri

platformebis centriskenul ganviTarebas. amave dros, dapirispirebis

parametri saxelisuflebo xasiaTs atarebs da pirvel rigSi korelaciaSia

saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebTan.

ganvixiloT, Tu rogor gansazRvravs aRniSnul periodSi partiaTa

dapirispireba/daaxloebis parametri da misi Semadgeneli cvladebi sagareo

politikis sistemis operirebis reJims.

dapirispireba prezidentsa da kongress Soris sistemis gamosavalze,

pirvel rigSi, gamoikveTa sagareo daxmarebis sakiTxebSi. 1995 w. kongresma

miiRo e.w. `amerikis sagareo interesebis aqti,~ romelic gamiznuli iyo

sagareo daxmarebis mniSvnelovan Sekvecaze. meore mxriv, kongresma ar miiRo

sagareo daxmarebis kanonmdeblobis -- administraciis sagareo politikis

qvakuTxedis -- reformis winadadeba, romelic iTvaliswinebda aqcentis

gadatanas tradiciuli ormxrivi daxmarebidan eqvsi farTo mimarTulebis

dafinansebaze. 1 yofil sabWoTa kavSirTan mimarTebaSi, mxardaWeris

ideologia SenarCunebuli iyo deklaraciul doneze, Tumca realur

terminebSi gamoxatuli mxardaWera gacilebiT naklebi aRmoCnda. 2

amave dros, partiaTa ideologiuri daaxloeba arbilebs sagareo

politikis sistemis operirebis konfrontaciul `waxnagebs.~ radikali

`revolucioneri~ respublikelebis pozicia or-partiul TanamSromlobazea

1 es mimarTulebebia: demokratiis ganviTareba, mSvidobis xelSewyoba, humanitaruli

daxmareba, vaWrobisa da investirebis meSveobiT ekonomikuri zrdis xelSewyoba, diplomatiisa da mdgradi ganviTarebis xelSewyoba.

2 1995 fiskaluri wlis sagareo operaciebis asignirebis kanonis farglebSi kongresma daamtkica ruseTisa da yofili sabWoTa respublikebisadmi 850 milioni aSS dolaris odenobis ekonomikuir daxmareba, iseve rogorc 400 milioniani birTvuli iaraRis daSlis nan-lugaris programa. es klintonis mier moTxovnil Tanxaze 50 milioniT iyo naklebi da, ra Tqma unda, ver Seedreboda 1994 fiskaluri wlisaTvis miRebul 2.5 miliardian daxmarebas.

77

orientirebuli, xolo klintonis sajaro gamosvlebi aseve respublikur

kongresTan TanamSromlobis suliskveTebiT xasiaTdeba. 2000 wlis

prezidentobis kandidatebi mxars uWeren internacionalistur sagareo

politikas da ganeridebian TavianTi partiebis izolacionisturad

ganwyobil frTas (bukia, 2001, gv. 176-178).

amgvarad, erTi mxriv, partiebis ideologiuri daaxloeba da, meore

mxriv, saerTaSoriso sistemis movlenaTa simwvave qmnida niadags aSS-is

aqtiuri saerTaSoriso monawileobisaTvis. magram civi omis periodis

konsensusis gaqrobam da erovnuli interesebis erTiani koncepciis

Camoyalibebis sirTulem xeli Seuwyo partiuli niSniT saxelisuflebo

dapirispirebas da kvlav SezRuda e.w. `amerikuli misiis~ Sesruleba.

daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom politikuri partiebis, rogorc

ideologiuri struqturis komponentebis, urTierTqmedeba ideologiuri da

saxelisuflebo daaxloeba-dapirispirebis parametrebis mixedviT, sagareo

politikis sistemisaTvis relevanturia im mimarTebebiT, romlebic

yalibdeba, erTi mxriv, kongresis farglebSi da, meore mxriv, kongressa da

prezidents Soris. amave dros, partiebis daaxloeba-dapirispirebis

parametrebis ganxilva saerTaSoriso garemosa da socialur-ekonomikuri

garemos parametrebTan korelaciaSi, saSualebas gvaZlevs vamtkicoT, rom

aRwerili tendenciebis xasiaTi ganpirobebulia aRniSnuli parametrebis

Semadgeneli cvladebis intensivobiT. kerZod, e.w. `radikaluri~ cvladebi,

romlebic dominireben saerTaSoriso sistemasa Tu Sidapolitikuri

sistemis socialur-ekonomikur struqturaSi, ganapirobeben partiebis

urTierTqmedebas daaxloebis parametrze; xolo SedarebiT `liberaluri~

cvladebi ganapirobeben urTierTqmedebas dapirispirebis parametrze.

Sedegad, partiebis urTierTqmedeba daaxloeba-dapirispirebis parametrebze

ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis winaaRmdegobriv

reJims, sadac sistemis gamosavalze miRebuli operaciuli Tu

deklaraciuli Sedegebi ar gamoirCeva komplementarulobiT da asustebs

erTmaneTis efeqturobas.

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2.3.4.2 sazogadoebrivi azri da masmedia

literaturaSi yvelaze gavrcelebuli TvalsazrisiT amerikuli

sazogadoebrivi azri Sors aris sagareo politikis `kvalificiuri~

analizisagan da Semoifargleba politikis `pragmatuli SefasebiT~ (The

Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 1999; Sabatier, 1991, p. 271; Gerner, 1991, p. 144).

sapirispiro pozicia iziarebs zogad debulebas amerikuli sazogadoebis

arainformirebulobis Taobaze, magram amtkicebs, rom sazogadoebrivi azris

reagireba sagareo politikaze Tanmimdevrulia (Hinich and Munger, 1994; Holsti,

1997).

sazogadoebrivi azris analizisas, Cven, pirvel rigSi, amovdivarT misi

socialur-ekonomikuri funqciidan zemoqmedeba moaxdinos sagareo

politikis formirebaze, vinaidan demokratiuli sazogadoebis pirobebSi,

sagareo politikis `pragmatuli Sefaseba~ warmoadgens swored rom

`pragmatul~ iaraRs politikuri istebliSmentis marTvisa (bukia, 2003,

gv.222-226). sazogadoebriv azrs Cven ganvixilavT wyvili parametris --

`konsolidireba-gafantulobis~ parametrebis mixedviT, romlebic

korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso garemosa da Sidapolitikuri garemos

parametrebTan. viTvaliswinebT ra literaturaSi ganxilul sazogadoebrivi

azris formirebis mravalgvar faqtors, 1 migvaCnia, rom mimdinare

politikur konteqstSi, erT-erT aseT gadamwyvet faqtors warmoadgens

media. udaoa, rom media wamyvan rols TamaSobs rogorc mimdinare

`informaciuli konteqstis~ uzrunvelyofaSi, aseve moqalaqeTa

stereotipebis da molodinebis formirebaSi, romlebic, Tavis mxriv,

ganapirobeben Sesabamisi `politikuri mesijebis~ aRqmas.

mediis funqciebs Soris, literaturaSi tradiciulad gansakuTrebuli

mniSvneloba eniWeba: 1. politikuri `dRis wesrigis~ gansazRvras da e.w.

`SesaZleblobebis fanjrebis~ 2 Seqmnas; 2. politikosebisaTvis `realur~

1 rogoricaa eris istoriuli gamocdileba, kulturul-ideologiuri Tvisebebi da sxva. 2 termini gulisxmobs garkveul drois monakveTs, romlis manZilzec politikosebisTvis upriania reagirebis gakeTeba garkveul Sida Tu saerTaSoriso mniSvnelobis movlenaze.

79

droSi informaciis miwodebas da aRniSnul sakiTxebze maTi poziciis

gaxmovanebas (Strobel, 2000, pp.38-42). saubroben aseve sxvadasxva politikuri

interesebis mier mediis mikerZoebuli gamoyenebis Sesaxeb (Pickering, 2000, pp. 5-

19). kvlevis miznebis Sesabamisad, aRniSnul funqciebs Cven gavaerTianebdiT

or ZiriTad funqciaSi; esenia: 1. sazogadoebriv azrze zemoqmedebis da 2.

sazogadoebrivi azris gamoxatvis funqciebi. amgvarad, Cvens kvlevaSi media

asrulebs erTgvar SemakavSirebel rols erTi mxriv, 1. saerTaSoriso da

Sida politikur garemosa da sazogadoebriv azrs Soris; da meore mxriv 2.

sazogadoebriv azrsa da sagareo politikis istebliSments Soris.

Sesabamisad, medias da sazogadoebriv azrs Cven ganvixilavT rogorc

ideologiuri struqturis kompleqsur komponents. medias Cven

davaxasiaTebT damoukidebeli wyvili parametris -- `intensiuri-wyvetili

gaSuqebis~ parametrebis -- mixedviT, romlebic asaxaven mediis fokusirebis

xarisxs saerTaSoriso da Sidapolitikuri garemos movlenebze. amave dros,

davuSvebT, rom `intensiuri-wyvetili gaSuqebis~ wyvili parametri

Sesabamisad korelaciaSia sazogadoebriv azris `konsolidireba-

gafantulobis~ wyvil parametrTan.

rogor gansazRvravs sazogadoebrivi azris da mediis aRniSnuli

parametrebi sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis reJims?

socialur-ekonomikuri struqtris negatiuri parametrebis periodis

mediis mimoxilva gviCvenebs, rom is ZiriTadi Tematuri sakiTxebi,

romelebic intensiuri gaSuqebiT xasiaTdeba, calsaxad ukavSirdeba Sida

socialur-ekonomikur problemebs. migvaCnia, rom presis amgvari

koncentracia swored rom Sida socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis

aRwerili parametrebiT aris ganpirobebuli. mediis intensiuri gaSuqebis

Sesabamisad izrdeba sazogadoebrivi azris koncentracia Sida politikis

sakiTxebze, rac xSirad `socialuri konservatizmis~ terminebSi xasiaTdeba

(Yankelovich, 1992, p.4; Ornstein, 1992, p.2,3,15). warmoCindeba aseve uaryofiTi

Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvis korelacia politikuri partiebis ideologiuri

`dapirspirebis~ paramametrsa da sazogadoebrivi azris `konsolidirebis~

80

parametrs Soris, sadac sazogadoebrivi azri uaryofiTad aris ganwyobili

partiebis araTanmimdevruli qmedebebisadmi. 1

mocemuli periodis mediaSi gaSuqebuli serTaSoriso sakiTxebi

saerTaSoriso garemos warmoadgens `mouwesrigeblobis,~ `arastabilurobis~

da `dezintegraciis~ maxasiaTebelebis parametrebiT. 2 amgvari asaxva ar

uwyobs xels sazogadoebrivi azris konsolidirebas saerTaSoriso

movlenebSi aSS-is aqtiuri monawileobis Taobaze, -- anu sagareo

politikasTan mimarTebaSi, sazogadoebrivi azris ganviTareba mimdinareobs

`gafantulobis~ parametris mixedviT. amave dros, aRebuli periodis

WrilSi, saerTaSoriso sakiTxebi ZiriTadad `wyvetili~ gaSuqebis

parametriT xasiaTdeba, romelic pirdapir korelaciaSia sazogadoebrivi

azris `gafantulobis~ parametrTan. `gafantulobis~ aRniSnuli parametri,

amave dros, uaryofiTi datvirTvis korelaciaSia politikuri partiebis

`saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametrTan, romelic Tavisi SinaarsiT, met-

naklebad, internacionalisturi xasiaTisaa. amdenad, 90-iani wlebis

dasawyisSi mosaxleobaSi e.w. `gulSematkivrobisagan daqanculobis~

sindromi viTardeba (Gallup, January 1992).

SeiZleba iTqvas, rom aRniSnuli tendenciebi uSualod aisaxa aSS-is

SesaZleblobebze, gamoeyenebina Tavisi resursebi saerTaSriso asparezze 3

da, kerZod, mis mzadyofnaze, aRmoeCina ekonomikuri daxmareba yofili

saocialisturi qveynebisaTvis (Gergen, 1992, p.13). sagareo politikis sistemis

gamosavalze, iseT sakiTxSic ki, rogoric iyo saerTaSoriso vaWroba, Tavs

iCenda winaaRmdegobrivi tendenciebi, sadac SedarebiT sxva industriul

qveynebTan, aSS axali savaWro barierebis SeqmniT gamoirCeoda (The National

Election Studies Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior).

1 mtkiceba efuZneba presis analizs: The Washungton Post, January, 1989 -- December, 1995: USA Today, January 1989 -- December, 1995. 2 mtkiceba efuZneba presis analizs: The Washungton Post, January, 1989 -- December, 1995: USA Today, January 1989 -- December, 1995. 3 mocemul periodSi, arsebuli saerTaSoriso wesrigis SenarCunebaze aSS Tavisi mTliani erovnuli produqtis 6%-s xarjavda.

81

meore mxriv, maSin rodesac mediis da sazogadoebrivi azris saerTo

interesi saerTaSoriso sistemis aRwerili parametrebis mimarT sustia, is

konkretuli movlenebi, anu cvladebi, romlebic Tavisi intensivobiT

`radikalur~ mniSvnelobas uaxlovdebian mainc iwveven mediis intensiur

gaSuqebasa da sazogadoebrivi azris konsolidacias. marTlac, ori

msoflio omisa da Semdgomi 40 wliani civi omis gamocdilebam daanaxa

amerikelebs, rom aSS-s ar SeuZlia, `dausjelad~ Camoscildes

saerTaSoriso movlenebs da rom did saxelmwifos yovelTvis didi

valdebulebebi akisria (Yankelovich, 1992, p.7).

1995-2000 wlebis ekonomikuri aRmavlobis periods kongresis

kvleviTi centris eqsperti stenli sloani axasiaTebs, rogorc àSS-is mier

Tavisi saerTaSoriso valdebulebebis ugulebelyofis~ xanas (Sloan,

citirebulia: Lindsay, 2000, pp.40-43). marTlac, 1996 da 2000 saarCevno wlebSi

amerikuli mosaxleoba pirvel rigSi yuradRebas qveynis socialur

problemebze amaxvilebs, rac, bunebrivia, saarCevno wlebis specifikiT aris

ganpirobebuli (ABC/Washington Post, September, 2000; Gallup, July, 2000); magram ufro

farTo konteqstSi, zogadad mcirdeba ra koncentracia socialur-

ekonomikur problemebze, sagareo politikis sakiTxebi meti intensivobiT

Suqdeba mediaSi da SedarebiT ufro metadac eqceva sazogadoebrivi azris

TvalsawierSi. 1 mocemuli periodis mediaSi gamokveTil Tematikaze

dayrdnobiT, miviCnevT, rom mediis ìntensiuri gaSuqebis~ parametri pirvel

rigSi korelaciaSia da faqtiurad warmoadgens reaqcias saerTaSoriso

garemos Cvens mier ganxilul or ZiriTad parametrze -- àxali ekonomikuri

centrebis Seqmnisa~ da `saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi

urTierTdamokidebulebis~ parametrebze; anu im parametrebze, romelTa

Semadgeneli maRali intensivobis cvladebic, uSualo kavSirSia amerikuli

mosaxleobis ekonomikur keTildReobasTan.

mediis ìntensiuri gaSuqebis~ da sazogadoebrivi azris

`konsolidaciis~ parametrebis sagareo politikis sistemis reJimze

82

zemoqmedebis erT-erT saukeTeso ilustracias, albaT, warmoadgens

klintonis administraciis mier gatarebuli globalizaciis mxardaWeris

sakmaod Tanmimdevruli politika. 2 meore mxriv, aRniSnul periodSi,

rodesac sazogadoeba zogadad kmayofilia, rogorc qveynis Sida socialur-

ekonomikuri viTarebiT, aseve misi saerTaSoriso statusiT, viTardeba

erTgvari socialuri `TviTkmayofilebis~ sindromic, romelsac brukingsis

institutis mkvlevari jeims lindsi àfatiur internacionalizms~ uwodebs

(Lindsay, 2000). sazogadoebrivi azris amgvar gaorebas, romelsac Cven

davaxasiaTebdiT rogorc mis `gafantulobas,~ meore mxarec gaaCnia. kerZod,

igi xels uwyobs garkveuli viwro, Tumca Zlieri inetresebis warmoCenas,

romlebic Tavisi intensivobis xarjze aRweven zemoqmedebis maRal xarisxs

sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis Sedegebze. 3

daskvnis saxiT vityodiT, rom sazogadoebrivi azris da mediis

cvalebadoba, erTi mxriv, `konsolidirebisa~ da ìntensiuri~ gaSuqebis

parametrebis, da meore mxriv, `gafantulobisa~ da `wyvetili~ gaSuqebis

parametrebis mixedviT, - sadac, saerTaSoriso sistemis da Sida socialur-

ekonomikuri struqturis cvladebis radikalurobos xarisxis Sesabamisad,

icvleba maTi fokusirebis aqcentebi - ganapirobebs aSS sagareo politikis

sistemis operirebas cvalebad reJimSi, sadac erTmaneTs enacvlebian e.w.

ìnternacionalisturi~ da `ganridebis~ doneebi. aRniSnuli doneebi ar

arian erTmaneTTan urTierTSevsebis `komplementarul~ damokidebulebaSi.

1 mtkiceba efuZneba presis analizs: The Washington Post, January, 1996 -- September ,2002; USA Today, January, 1996 – September 2002

2 administarcia iRebs zomebs vaWrobisa da investiciebis barierebis Sesamcireblad, romelTa Sorisac ZiriTadia `Crdilo-amerikuli Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmeba (NAFTA), `tarifebsa da vaWrobaze zogadi SeTanxmebis~ (GATT) urugvais raundis dasruleba, `msoflio savaWro organizaciis~ mxardaWera da sxva.

3 swored amgvar `deklaraciuli~ tipis Sedegebad SeiZleba CaiTvalos klintonis administraciis sakmaod damyoli reaqcia WTO-s sawinaRmdego sietlis saprotesto aqciebze, rodesac konkretuli adgilobrivi interesebis `dasamSvideblad~ klintonma mouwoda saerTaSoriso SromiTi standartebis ganmtkicebisTvis, rac Tavis mxriv, ùzrunvelyofili~ iqneboda savaWro sanqciebis gziT. xolo amgvari tipis òperaciul~ Sedegebs ganekuTvneba aSS-is sakmaod winaaRmdegbrivi `meoradi savaWro sanqciebi,~ romlebic iTvaliswineben damsjel zomebs im ucxouri kompaniebis mimarT, romlebic awarmoeben bizness iranTan, libiasTan da kubasTan.

83

2.3.4.3 interesTa jgufebi, arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da analitikuri

centrebi

aSS-is pluralistur sazogadoebaSi, Sidapolitikuri sistemis

ideologiuri struqturis mniSvnelovan komponents warmoadgens interesTa

jgufebi, arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da analitikuri centrebi, romelTac

Cven gavaerTianebT `specialuri interesebis~ kategoriaSi. (qoCoraZe, 2005,

beWdvis procesSi.)

aRniSnuli komponentebis politikur procesebze zemoqmedebis

saSualebebi gansxvavebulia. interesTa jgufebi ZiriTadad mimarTaven

pirdapiri lobirebis saSualebebs, xolo arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da

analitikuri centrebi -- zemoqmedebis arapirdapir, inteleqtualur

(gamokvlevebis, konferenciebis da a.S.) saSualebebs. orive SemTxvevaSi

aRniSnuli erTeulebis mizania ganapirobon sagareo politikis sistemis

operireba reJimSi, romelic xels Seuwyobda sagareo politikis maTTvis

sasurveli konkretuli miznebis miRwevas. Cven ar SevexebiT literaturaSi

jer kidev mimdinare polemikas imis Taobaze Tu ramdenad keTilismyofelia

specialuri interesebis lobireba aSS-is politikuri sistemisaTvis.

avRniSnavT mxolod, rom maTi funqcionireba, pirdapir ukavSirdeba aSS-is

e.w. `kooperaciuli federalizmis~ modelis ganviTarebas, sadac `gamWoli~

interesebi mmarTvelobis yvela doneze fiqsirdeba. ganixilaven specialuri

interesebis iseT funqciebs, rogoricaa sazogadoebis politikuri

reprezentacia, sazogadoebis politikur procesebSi monawileobis

uzrunvelyofa, sazogadoebis informireba da politikuri istebliSmentis

kadrebis aRzrda. Cven gamovyofT specialuri interesebis sagareo

politikaze zemoqmedebis funqcias, romelsac ganvixilavT, erTi mxriv, maTi

sazogadoebriv azrze da, meore mxriv, politikur istebliSmentze

zemoqmedebis TvalsazrisiT. 1 aRniSnul zemoqmedebas Cven ganvixilavT

`Zlieri~ - `susti~ zemoqmedebis wyvili parametris Sesabamisad. amave dros

1 amave dros miviCnevT, rom ukanasknel periodSi izrdeba specialuri interesebis uSualod sazogadoebriv azrze zemoqmedebis xarisxi, rac nawilobriv gamowveulia maT mier mediis mzardi gamoyenebiT.

84

davuSvebT, rom `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametri dadebiT korelaciaSia

sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ da mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~

parametrebTan. anu miviCnevT, rom sazogadoebrivi azrisa da mediis

araintensiuri fokusireba saerTaSoriso sistemis garkveul sakiTxze qmnis

im neitralur fons, romelic xels uwyobs am sakiTxebTan mimarTebaSi

specialuri interesebis efeqtur zemoqmedebas.

specialuri interesebis cvalebadoba `Zlieri~-`susti~ zemoqmedebis

wyvili parametris RerZze, maTi `viwro specializaciis~ gamo, sagareo

politikis sistemis funqcionirebis reJims sakmaod erTmniSvnelovnad

ganapirobebs, warmarTavs ra mas Sesabamisi konkretuli interesebis

dasakmayofileblad. amave dros, es zemoqmedeba xorcieldeba, rogorc

saerTaSoriso sistemis, aseve Sidapolitikuri sistemis socialur-

ekonomikuri struqturis parametrebTan urTierTqmedebaSi. Tumca es

urTierTqmedebebi ar aris calsaxa da damokidebulia yoveli konkretuli

specialuri interesis matarebeli erTeulis xasiaTze. magaliTad, miviCnevT,

rom iseT farTo jgufebs, rogoricaa biznes korporaciebi da, garkveul

wilad, fermerTa kavSirebi gaaCniaT mkveTrad gamoxatuli pozicia

socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis savaWro deficitis parametrTan

mimarTebaSi. 1 am jgufebis lobi pirdapir ukavSirdeba aRniSnuli

parametris Secvlas da ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis

funqcionirebas reJimSi, romelic mimarTulia sagareo politikis

ekonomikuri aspeqtebis wamowevaze. biznes interesebis `Zlieri~

zemoqmedebis parametri asve korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso sistemis

`saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis~ parametrTan,

romelic aseve ganapirobebs sistemis operirebas reJimSi, romelic sagareo

politikis ekonomikur aspeqtebzea fokusirebuli. 2 `arastabilurobis

1 am poziciis Tanaxmad, savaWro deficiti asaxavs usamarTlo konkurencias, sadac ucxouri kompaniebisTvis advilia aSS-is Sida bazarze SeRweva, xolo amerikul kompaniebs ucxouri mTavrobebis mier Seqmnili barierebi eRobebaT. 2 1992 wels swored biznesis lobim dauWira mxari `Crdilo amerikuli Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmebas~ (NAFTA). biznesis lobis zemoqmedeba aisaxa sagareo daxmarebasTan mimarTebaSic, rodesac, magaliTad, 1993 wlis `sagareo operaciebis asignirebaTa aqtSi~

85

axali kerebis~ da àxali safrTxeebis ganviTarebis~ parametebs ukavSirdeba

aseve samxedro industriis `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametri, 1 xolo

`komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametrs ukavSirdeba iseTi èTnikuri~ interesTa

jgufebis zemoqmedeba, rogoricaa, magaliTad, àmerikel ebraelTa

kongresi~, àmerikel somexTa erovnuli komiteti,~ àzebaijanul-Turquli

lobi~ da sxva. eTnikuri interesTa jgufebis sagareo politikis

sistemaze `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametri ganapirobebs sistemis gamosaval

etapze iseT deklaraciul Tu operaciul Sedegebs, rogoricaa rus

ebraelTa emigraciis sakiTxi da masTan dakavSirebuli `jeqson-vanikis~

savaWro SezRudva, sagareo daxmareba somxeTisa da mTiani yarabaxisaTvis,

`Tavisuflebis mxardamWeri aqtis~ 907-e Sesworeba da sxva.

literaturaSi arasamTavrobo organizaciebis da analitikuri

centrebis gavlena sagreo politikis sistemaze, pirvel rigSi, aRiniSneba

samSvidobo procesebis xelSewyobis, anu e.w. `meore arxis diplomatiis~

zemoqmedebis TvalsazrisiT (Notter and McDonald, 1998). arsebobs aseve

mosazreba, romelic am organizaciebis aqtivobas ukavSirebs istebliSmentis

orinetacias Tavdacvis dafinansebis gazrdaze, rac iwvevs amgvari kursis

rogorc mxardamWerTa, aseve mowinaaRmdegeTa warmoqmnasa da aqtiurobas

(Watson, 1990).

migvaCnia, rom arasamTvarobo organizaciebis da analitikuri

centrebis warmoqmnisa da aqtiurobis xarisxi ZiriTadad korelaciaSia

saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebis Semadgeneli cvladebis

`radikalizmis~ xarisxTan. Sesabamisad, am organizaciebis zemoqmedeba

sagareo politikis sistemaze ukavSirdeba saerTaSoriso sistemis aRweril

didwilad iyo gaTvaliswinebuli ekonomikuri xelSewyobis programebi. igive lobis mniSvnelovani waqezebiT muSaobdnen aseve 1997 wels saxelmwifo da komerciis departamentebi ìnvestirebis mravalmxrivi SeTanxmebis~ (MAI) miRwevisaTvis, romelic uzrunvelyofda investirebis xelSemwyob pirobebs amerikuli kompaniebisaTvis. 1 magaliTad, samxedro korporaciebis (Lockheed Martin, Textron, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, etc.) TanadgomiT xorcieldeba prezident klintonis `nato~-s aRmosavleTiT gafarToebis iniciativa; igive konteqstSi xorcieldeba TanamSromloba samxedro kompaniebsa da eTnikuri interesebis gamomxatvel jgufebs Soris, rogoricaa `poloneli amerikelebis~, ùngreli amerikelebis~ da `Cexi amerikelebis~ organizaciebi.

86

parametrebs, romelTa Sorisac gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas mivaniWebT

`komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametrs. arasamTavrobo organizaciebi da

analitikuri centrebi, romlebic muSaoben aSS-is sagareo politikaze (mag.

aRmosavleT-dasavleTis instituti, karnegis mSvidobis saerTaSoriso

fondi, Ria sazogadoeba - sorosis fondi da mravali sxva) warmatebiT

ewevian post-komunistur sivrceSi samoqalaqo sazogadoebis, Tavisufali

mewarmeobis, adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis ganviTarebis da demokratiuli

aRmSeneblobis sxva amocanebis mxardamWeri politikuri kursis lobirebas.

amave dros unda aRiniSnos, rom federalur doneze, xelisufleba iCens

uaRres sifrTxiles, raTa ar gaxdes romelime erTi interesis gamomxatveli

jgufis zemoqmedebis obieqti (Taft, 2000) da cdilobs iTanamSromlos

arsamTavrobo organizaciebis da analitikuri centrebis maqsimalurad

farTo speqtrTan, rac Tavis mxriv, amcirebs TiToeuli maTganis sagareo

politikis sistemaze zemoqmedebis xarisxs. Tumca specialuri interesebis

sagareo politikis sistemaze zemoqmedebisas, ZiriTad winaaRmdegobas qmnis

TviT saerTaSoriso sistemis Tu Sidapolitikuri sistemis konkretuli

movlenebiT ganpirobebuli Sida dapirispirebebi, romlebic pirvel rigSi

warmoiqmneba gansxvavebuli xasiaTis interesTa jgufebs Soris 1 da,

naklebi xarisxiT, arasamTavrobo organizaciebsa da analitikur centrebs

Soris. interesTa jgufebis da arasamTavrobo organizaciebis aqtivoba aseve

SeiZleba ewinaaRmdegebodes sazogadoebrivi azrisa da mediis saerTo

ganwyobebs, magram rogorc ukve avRniSneT, am ukanasknelTa maRali

`konsolidaciisa~ da `intensiuri~ gaSuqebis parametrebis SemTxvevaSi,

specialuri interesebis zemoqmedebis intensiuroba ukuproporciulad

klebulobs da igi aRar ganixileba Cvens mier, rogorc sistemis operirebis

reJimis ganmsazRvreli faqtori.

2.3.4.4 politikuri istebliSmenti

1 magaliTad, biznes korporaciebsa (Business Roundtable; National Federation of Independent Businesses) da mSromelTa profesiul kavSirebs (AFL-CIO) Soris.

87

aSS-is sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli politikuri

istebliSmentis, rogorc ideologiuri struqturis erT-erTi

umniSvnelovanesi komponentis, funqcionirebis analizi literaturaSi

ZiriTadad xorcieldeba aRmasrulebeli da sakanonmdeblo xelisuflebis

urTierTqmedebis WrilSi. arsebuli analizis qvakuTxeds warmoadgens

dilema demokratiul mmarTvelobasa da mkafio sagareo politikis

ganxorcielebas Soris, romelzedac jer kidev aleqsis de tokevilma

SeaCera yuradReba (de Tocqueville, 1994, pp.80-90). Cveni kvlevis miznebis

Sesabamisad, politikuri istebliSmentis kategoriaSi moviazrebT sam jgufs

-- prezidentis adminisitracias; saxelmwifo da Tavdacvis departamentebs;

da warmomadgenelTa palatisa da senatis sagareo urTierTobaTa

komitetebs -- romelTa Soris urTierTqmedebac vityodiT, rom saboloo

jamSi albaT daiyvaneba kontrolis ganxorcielebisaTvis brZolaze. Cveni

modelis farglebSi, aRniSnuli urTierTqmedeba ganxilulia saerTaSoriso

sistemisa da Sida-politikuri garemos parametrebis zemoqmedebis

TvalsazrisiT, rac Cveni azriT, warmoaCens amgvari urTierTqmedebis

siRrmiseul faqtorebs. istebliSmentis SigniT Camoyalibebul formalur

funqcionalur urTierTobebs Cven ganvixilavT rogorc SedarebiT mudmiv

struqturas, romelic gansazRvravs sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis

formalur arxebs, magram ver axdens arsebiT zegavlenas mis Sedegebze.

gamovyofT istebliSmentis operirebis araformalur funqcionalur

urTierTqmedebebs, romelTa parametrebsac gaaCniaT arsebiTi unari

zemoqmedeba moaxdinon sistemis operirebis Sedegebze. amgvar

urTierTqmedebebs Cven ganvixilavT wyvili `TanamSromloba-gamijnulobis~

parametrebis mixedviT. `TanamSromlobis~ parametrad miviCnevT

urTierTqmedebis process, sadac Semadgeneli cvladebis (anu movlenebis)

jamuri qmedeba gansazRvravs uwyebebis koordinirebul moqmedebas saerTo

miznis misaRwevad. `gamijnulobis~ parametrad miviCnevT urTierTqmedebaTa

process, sadac Semadgeneli cvladebis jamuri qmedeba gansazRvarvs

arakoordinirebul moqmedebas, saerTo miznis sazianod. amave dros,

88

konkretuli cvladebi, romlebic gansazRvraven uwyebebis operirebas

`TanamSromloba-gamijnulobis~ RerZze kavSirSi arian aRniSnuli uwyebebis

`organizaciul kulturasa~ da wamyvani personaliebis individualur

TvisebebTan.

ganxiluli periodis socialur-ekonomikuri struqturisNnegatiuri

parametrebis konteqstSi, sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel pirvel pirebs

Soris politikis ZiriTad mimarTulebebze TanamSromloba dominirebs.

aRniSnuli garemoeba didwilad ganisazRvreba didi xnis piradi da saqmiani

kontaqtebiT, romlebic akavSirebda prezident buSs Tavisi kabinetis wamyvan

wevrebTan, iseve rogorc TviT prezidentis personiT, romlisTvisac, misi

gamocdilebidan gamomdinare, sagareo politika prioritetuli iyo. Tumca

sagareo politikis mesveurebis muSaobis amgvar models, Cven pirvel rigSi

vxsniT saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebis “radikaluri” xasiaTiT,

romlebic Tavisi Zlieri zemoqmedebiT iwveven xelmZRvaneli pirebis

daaxloebas `TanamSromlobis~ parametrze. 1 meore mxriv, cnobilia, rom

saxelmwifo mdivani beikeri sistematurad ugulebelyofda saxelmwifo

departamentis aparats. misi amgvari pozicia saxelmwifo departamentis

profesionalebis ukmayofilebas iwvevda da, saboloo jamSi, mis

qmediTobaze aisaxeboda. amgvari Sidauwyebrivi winaaRmdegoba SeiZleba

ganvixiloT, rogorc `gamijvnis~ parametris proecireba, romelic

realurad asaxavs dapirispirebas prezidentis ofissa da saxelmwifo

deparatmentis aparats Soris. es dapirispireba, pirvel rigSi, SeiZleba

ganvixiloT partiuli dapirispirebis parametrTan korelaciaSi, sadac Tavs

iCens ideologiuri dapirispireba respublikel prezidentsa da saxelmwifo

departamentis, tradiciulad, ufro demokratulad orientirebul

moxeleebs Soris, romelTa dafinansebac, amave dros, bevrad CamorCeboda

1 amave dros, amgvar models Cven ar gavaigivebT literaturaSi cnobil `ierarqiul~ an `konsensusis~ modelebTan, vinaidan aq ar daikvirveba arc mkacri ierarqiuli TanamSromloba, rogorc es, magaliTad, damaxasiaTebeli iyo hari trumenis administraciisTvis, da arc iZulebiTo konsensusi, rogorc es damaxasiaTebeli iyo lindon jonsonis adminsitraciisTvis.

89

sxva departamentebis dafinansebas. 1 Tumca dapirispireba arsebobda TeTr

saxlsa da pentagonis samxedro specialistebs Sorisac, romlebic

uaRresad SeSfoTebulni iyvnen sabrZolo arsenalebis Semcirebis buSis

iniciativebis gamo. 2 `gamijvnis~ parametri `muSaobs~ aseve samxedro

uwyebis xelmZRvanelobasa da aparats Soris, sadac ukve prezident

klintonis administraciis Tavdacvis mdivani les aspini mxars uWers

evropaSi aSS SeiaraRebis Semcirebas, `strategiuli Tavdacvis iniciativis~

(SDI) programis gauqmebas, da mTlianad Tavdacvis biujetis Sekvecas, rac

samxedro biurokratiis ukmayofilebas iwvevs. more mxriv, klintonis

erovnuli usafrTxoebis mrCeveli entoni leiki 3 kolegialur

urTierTobebs inarCunebs saxelmwifo mdivan uoren kristoferTan da

maqsimalurad Tavs aridebs uwyebaTaSorisi urTierTobebis niqsoniseul

models. 4 magram, saxelmwifo departamentis bevri profesionalisTvis

kristoferi, mxolod-da-mxolod prezidentis surogatia, romelic, Tavis

mxriv, ver atarebs Tanmimdevrul sagareo politikas. 5 amasTan mimarTebiT,

presa pirdapir wers saxelmwifo departamentis samuSao suliskveTebis

dacemis Taobaze (The Washington Post, June, 1994). analogiurad wina prezidentis

adminsitraciisa, gamijvna sagareo politikis aparatis pirvel pirsa da

aparatis biurokratias Soris, aseve warmoadgens im gamijvnis proeqcias,

romelic warmoiqmna TeTr saxlsa da aparatis biurokratias Soris,

miuxedava imisa, rom aq ver SevZlebT saubars raime gamoxatul ideologiur

dapirispirebaze.

1 1989 w. saxelmwifo departamentis fondebi Seadgenda Tavdacvis sferoSi gamoyofili fondebis 1%-ze naklebs. 2 am iniciativebis erT-erT TvalsaCino gamoxatulebas warmoadgenda gaxmaurebuli maltis samiti, romelic START -is farglebSi ori supersaxelmwifos samxedro arsenals 50%-iT amcirebda. 3 leiki Tavis droze muSaobda henri kisinjeris erovnuli usafrTxoebis sabWoSi. 4 TanamSromloba gansakuTrebiT gamoikveTa iseT sakiTxebSi, rogoric iyo bosnia, haiti da somali. 5 saxelmwifo departamentis profesionalebi, kerZod, gamoTqvamdnen ukmayofilebas, CineTisa da gaeros mimarT warmoebuli politikis cvalebadobis Taobaze.

90

dapirispirebas TeTr saxlsa da sagareo politikis istebliSmentis

aparats Soris ganvixilavT saerTaSoriso sistemis im radikalur

cvladebTan da parametrebTan mimarTebaSi, romlebic Seadgenen

saerTaSoriso sistemis `mouwesrigeblobis~ da `arastabilurobis~

maxasiaTeblebs. miviCnevT, rom aRniSnuli parametrebi arRvevdnen ra

sagareo politikis garkveul orientirebs, amave dros, aviwrovebdnen

sagareo politikaze pasuxixmgebeli istebliSmentis monawileTa wres.

sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze, biurokratiul aparatsa da

mis liderebs Soris `gamijvnis~ parametris moqmedebam kulminacias miaRwia

1995 wels, rodesac saxelmwifo mdivani kristoferi da vice prezidenti al

gori, `mTavrobis reorganizaciis~ programis farglebSi, gamovidnen

sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli sami didi uwyebis - saerTaSoriso

ganviTarebis saagentos (AID), SeiaraRebis kontrolisa da ganiaraRebis

saagentos (ACDA) da aSS sainformacio saagentos (USIA) saxelmwifo

departamenTan mierTebis iniciativiT. iniciativas, Tavis mxriv, aqezebda

senatis sagareo urTierTobaTa komitetis respublikeli Tavmjdomare jesi

helmsi (Congressional Quarterly Almanac, 1995, pp.3-9).

sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli biurokratiuli aparatis nakleb

efeqturoba misi liderebis pirispir, iseT saerTaSoriso konteqstSi, sadac

saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebi `radikalur~ mniSvnelobas uaxlovdebian,

aseve SeiZleba aixsnas TviT biurokratiuli organizaciis Teoriis

meSveobiTac. kerZod, jeims uilsonis `warmatebulobis principebis~

Tanaxmad, organizacia warmatebulia Tuki mas SeuZlia: 1. gadawyvitos, Tu

rogor gadaWras Tavisi kritikuli amocanebi; 2. miaRwios Sida konsensuss

am kritikuli amocanebis CamoyalibebsaTan dakavSirebiT; 3. miaRwios

moqmedebis Tavisuflebasa da gareSe politikur mxardaWeras mocemuli

amocanebis axleburad gansazRvrisaTvis (Wilson, 1989). migvaCnia, rom rodesac

sagareo politikis aparati operirebs saerTaSoriso garemoSi, sadac

Semadgeneli cvladebi `radikaluri~ mniSvnelobisaa, zemoT aRniSnuli

principebi TiTqmis miuwvdomeli xdeba. aqve gasaTvaliswinebelia sagareo

91

politikis aparatis biurokratiuli kultura, romlisTvisac sociologi

robert mertonis Tanaxmad, damxasiaTebelia `miznebis wanacvleba~ - anu

garkveuli Sidauwyebrivi procedurebis swori Sesrulebis prioritetuloba

arsebiT miznebTan SedarebiT (Merton, 1952, pp.361-71). amgvari

Sidaorganizaciuli kultura gansakuTrebiT akninebs biurokratiuli

aparatis, da pirvel rigSi, saxelmwifo departamentis rols saerTaSoriso

sistemis radikaluri cvladebis konteqstSi, sadac swrafi da qmediTi

gadawyvetilebebis miRebas arsebiTi mniSvneloba eniWeba. amave dros,

rogorc zemoT avRniSneT, vinaidan sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli

aparati ZiriTadad funqcionirebs iseT Sidapolitikur garemoSi,

romlisTvisac ar aris damaxasiaTebeli sazogadoebrivi azris

saerTaSoriso movlenebze xangZlivi fokusireba, calkeulma `specialurma

interesebma~ SeiZleba zemoqmedebis sakmaod intensiur xarisxs miaRwion.

amdenad, rogorc administraciis, aseve kongresis sagareo urTierTobebis

komitetebis mxridan aparatisadmi `frTxil~ damokidebulabas ganvixilavT

korelaciaSi `sazogadoebrivi azris gafantulobisa~ da `specialur

interesTa intensiuri zemoqmedebis~ parametrebTan.

ra reJimSi reagirebs aSS-is sagreo politikis sistema sagareo

politikaze pasuxismgebeli istebliSmentis operirebis modelze, sadac

moqmdebs `TanamSromlobis~ parametri istebliSmentis sami komponentis -

TeTri saxlis, kongresis komitetebis da sagareo politikis uwyebebis -

liderebs Soris, magram moqmedebs `gamijvnis~ parametri aRniSnul

liderebsa da sagareo politikis aparatis biurokratias Soris?

SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom ganxiluli periodis

saerTaSoriso sistemis movlenaTa konteqstSi, sagareo politikaze

pasuxismgebeli istebliSmentis liderebi, romlebic principSi moklebulni

arian didi gamocdilebis mqone profesional biurokratiul aparatTan

nayofier TanamSromlobas, saerTaSoriso sistemis yovel individualur

movlenaze sapasuxod, atareben individualur politikur kurss.

Sesabamisad, sagareo politikis sistema yoveli calkeuli movlenis

92

pirispir, operirebs individualur reJimSi, romelic moklebulia sistemur

xasiaTs. operirebis amgvari reJimi, ZiriTadad reaqtiuli xasiaTisaa.

kerZod, yofil sabWoTa kavSirTan mimarTebaSi, amgvari reJimi sistemis

gamosaval etapze ZiriTadad uzrunvelyofs `deklaraciuli~ tipis

Sedegebs, sadac erTmniSvnelovnad Camoyalibebulia aSS-is erovnuli

interesebisaTvis yofili sabWoTa kavSiris stabiluri, demokratiuli,

sabazro ekonomikis principebze agebuli ganviTarebis mniSvneloba, magram

ar arsebobs konsensusi imis Taobaze, Tu ra tipis da ra moculobis unda

iyos aSS-is daxmareba zemoaRniSnuli miznis misaRwevad (Hill, 2001). rogorc

zemoT avRniSneT, am mimarTebiT, sistemis gamosavali etapis erT-erT

yvelaze xelSesaxeb Sedegs warmoadgenda `Tavisuflebis mxardaWeris aqti~,

romlis azerbaijanisadmi daxmarebis SezRudvis cnobilma 907-e muxlma

kargad warmoaCina yofili sabWoTa respublikebisadmi amgvari

araTanmimdevruli politikis Sedegebi. amave dros, dapirispireba TeTr

saxlsa da sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel aparats Soris uSualod

aisaxa TviT `aqtis~ SemuSavebis procesze (Congress and Foreign Policy:1992, U.S.

House of Representatives, 203rd Congress, p.20).

saerTaSoriso sistemaSi, sadac cvladebi nakleb `radikalurebi~

arian, icvleba sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli aparatis operirebis

modeli. mniSvnelovnad izrdeba aparatis SesaZlebloba Tavad gansazRvros

sakuTari kritikuli amocanebi (uilsonis principebis Tanaxmad). Sesabamisad

izrdeba misi roli sagareo politikis SemuSavebasa da ganxorcielebaSi.

Cvens mier ganxilul aSS-is ekonomikuri aRmavlobis periodSi,

saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebi sagareo politikis istebliSmentze

zemoqmedeben Sidapolitikuri struqturis cvladebTan unisonSi. kerZod,

civi omis dasrulebisa da sparseTis yures omis warmatebiT

ganxorcielebis Semdeg, daZleul iqna e.w. `vietnamis paradigmasTan~

dakavSirebuli demokratiuli partiis Sida ganxeTqileba. aRniSnuli

movlena Sidapolitikuri sistemis ideologiuri struqturis cvladia,

romelic, Tavis mxriv, xels uwyobs demokratulad orientirebuli

93

biurokratiuli aparatisa da demokrati liderebis daaxloebas. swored

amgvar daaxloebaze saubrobda 1997 w. saxelmwifo mdivani v. kristoferi,

rodesac acxadebda istebliSmentis SigniT pasuxismgeblobis delegirebis

Sesaxeb (Christopher, 1997). sagareo politikis aparatis SigniT daaxloebis

erT-erT TvalsaCino magaliTs warmoadgens sruli Tanxmoba erTi mxriv

prezidents, saxelmwifo mdivans da Tavdacvis mdivans Soris, da meore

mxriv, sagareo politikis biurokratias Soris 1999 wlisaTvis `nato~ -s

gafarToebis sakiTxebze. 1 mocemul periodSi aseve ukeTesi TanamSromloba

viTardeba klintonis erovnuli usafrTxoebis mrCevlebs antoni leiks da

Semdgom samuel (sem) bergersa da sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel

aparats Soris. Tumca aq ukve gasaTvaliswinebelia individualuri

faqtorebic, vinaidan orive liders axasiaTebs gamoxatuli loialoba

saxelmwifo departamentis (maTi wina samsaxuris) mimarT da orive cdilobs

xeli Seuwyos demokratuli partiis memarcxene da memarjvene frTebis

daaxloebas. demokratTa erTiani frontis ganmtkicebas aseve cdilobs

saxelmwifo mdivani madlen olbraiti (The Almanac of American Politics, 1994, p.25).

biurokratiul aparatTan TanamSromlobis gaumjobesebis

paralelurad, gamoikveTeba sapirispiro tendenciac, kerZod urTierTobebis

ganviTareba `gamijvnis~ parametrze gasagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel

liderebs Soris. am parametris amoqmedeba gamoikveTa, magaliTad, erTi

mxriv, saxelmwifo mdivan madlen olbraits da Tavdacvis mdivan uiliam

perisa da, meore mxriv, kongresis erT-erT TvalsaCino liders, senatis

samxedro samsaxuris komitetis Tavjdomares sem nans Soris. dapirispireba

viTardeba `nato~ -s gafarToebis imave sakiTxze. 2 rogorc zemoTac

avRniSneT, dapirispireba prezidentis adminsitraciasa da kongresis

liderebs Soris mniSvnelovnad izrdeba partiuli niSniT, 1995 wlis

1 Tumca, `nato~ -s gafarToebis aqtiuri mowinaaRmdege iyo aSS-is yofili elCi moskovSi jek metloki, romelic miiCnevda, rom aRniSnuli iniciativa ruseTSi agresiuli Zalebis aRzevebas gamoiwvevda. 2 wamyvani demokrati senatoris pozicia iTvaliswinebs `nato~ -s gafarToebis `mibmas~ `evrokavSiris~ gafarToebaze, rac prezidentis administraciis mier aRqmulia, rogor `evropa-evropisaTvis~ tipis mikerZoebuli pozicia.

94

respublikuri kongresis mosvlisa da niut gingriCis programuli

dokumentis `kontraqti amerikasTan~ miRebis Semdeg, sadac `nato~ -s sakiTxi

aRniSnuli winaaRmdegobebis erT-erTi qvakuTxedi xdeba. daxmareba yofili

sabWoTa respublikebisadmi TeTr saxlsa da kongresis liderebs Soris

aseve dapirispirebis erT-erT magaliTs warmoadgens (Congressional Quarterly

Weekly, 1999, July 10, pp. 1664-65).

mkveTr gamijvnas TeTr saxlsa da kongresis liderebs Soris

analitikosebi xSirad xsnian TviT respublikuri partiis Sida

uTanxmoebebiT, iseve rogorc respublikelebis axali saxeebiT, romlebic

agresiulad cdiloben sakuTari `dRis wesrigis~ gatarebas (Congressional

Quarterly Weekly, November 28, 1998, p. 3203). davasaxelebT agreTve mniSvnelovan

individualur faqtorsac, rogoric iyo senatis sagareo urTierTobaTa

komitetis Tavjdomaris, jesi helmsis, winaaRmdegobriv figura. Tumca

liderebs Soris `gamijvnis~ mocemuli parametris amoqmedebis ZiriTad

pirobad Cven isev da isev saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebis SedarebiT

nakleb radikalurobas miviCnevT.

ra reJimSi reagirebs aSS-is sagareo politikis sistema sagareo

politikaze pasuxismgebeli istebliSmentis operirebis modelze, sadac,

erTi mxriv, moqmdebs `TanamSromlobis~ parametri sagareo politikaze

pasuxismgebel liderebsa da aparatis biurokratias Soris, xolo meore

mxriv, moqmedebs `gamijvnis~ parametri TviT am liderebs Soris?

SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom ganxiluli periodis saerTaSoriso

sistemis movlenaTa konteqstSi, sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze

Camoyalibebuli politika, SedarebiT winare ganxilul periodTan, ufro

metad operaciuli bunebisaa, Tumca xasiaTdeba meryeobis meti xarisxiT.

SesaZlebelia mtkiceba, rom am ori sibrtyis gadakveTaze miRebuli

politika Tavisi SedegebiT, nakleb sasikeToa ara mxolod sagareo

politikis `obieqti~ saxelmwifos grZelvadiani intersebisTvis, aramed,

TviT aSS-is grZelvadiani erovnuli interesebisTvisac.

95

amgvari cvalebadi politikis nakleb sasurveli Sedegebis erT-erT

magaliTs warmaodgens `evropaSi Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebis~ (CFE)

xelSekruleba, romelmac rigi transformaciebis Semdeg, e.w. `saflango

dokumentis~ ZaliT, sabolood dauSva SeiaraRebis gadanawileba

ruseTisaTvis kritikul zonebSi (kerZod, Crdilo kavkasiaSi) (Flank Document

Agreement to the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty). dokumentis miRebis procesSi

swored rom gamovlinda urTierTqmedeba saerTaSoriso sistemis cvlads -

ruseTis xisti poziciis cvlads - da aSS-is Sidapolitikuri sistemis

cvlads - sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel liderebis gansxvavebuli

poziciebis cvlads - Soris. 1 zogadad, istebliSmentis politika ruseTis

mimarT, erTi mxriv kompromisuli iyo, xolo meore mxriv, kvlav `Sekavebis

politikis~ racionals efuZneboda, rac, Sesabamisad, iwvevda obieqti

saxelmwifos araerTmniSvnelovan reagirebas.

daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom aSS sagareo politikis Sinagani

winaaRmdegobrioba, romelic sxva faqtorebs Soris, gamowveulia sagareo

politikaze pasuxismgebeli istebliSmentis Sida winaaRmdegobriobiT,

Tavisi arsiT, saboloo jamSi, specifiuria amerikuli demokratiuli

mmarTvelobisaTvis, romelic gacilebiT ufro rTuli procesis meSveobiT

axorcielebs qveynis sagareo politikas, vidre nebismieri avtoritaruli

reJimi, an Tundac saparlamento respublika.

*****

amgvarad, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom maSin rodesac aRwerilma

saerTaSoriso sistemam gaafarTova aSS-is sagareo politikis

SesaZleblobebi, aSS-is Sida politikurma sistemam -- sadac gadajaWvulia,

erTi mxriv, sazogadoebrivi ganwyobebis, partiuli orientaciebis,

xelisuflebis Stoebis da politikuri liderebis urTierTqmedebis

faqtorebi da, meore mxriv, mravalmxrivi socialur-ekonomikuri faqtorebi

1 istebliSmentis liderebis mxridan ganusazRvreli iyo agreTve pozicia ruseTis axali prezidentis v. putins mimarTac, sadac, erTi mxriv, gmobdnen putinis politikas CeCneTSi, xolo, meore mxriv, wamoswevdnen mis `liberali reformatoris~ imijs. (CQ Weekly, January 8, 2000, p. 58)

96

-- igi sagrZnoblad SezRuda. zemoT ganxiluli parametrebiT ganpirobebuli

sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis gansxvavebuli reJimebi, romlebic

sistemis dinamikaSi, erTmaneTTan winaaRmdegobaSi modian, an piruku avseben

da aZliereben erTmaneTs, sistemis gamosavalze, yoveli konkretuli

`obieqti~ saxelmwifos mimarT, gansazRvraven rogorc politikis zogad

farTo kurss, aseve ufro konkretul operaciul Tu deklaraciul

Sedegebs. rogorc zemoT iTqva, aRniSnuli Sedegebi kvlav ubrundebian

sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis garemos da warmoqmnian sistemis

Sesavalze arsebul cvladebs.

97

Tavi III

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionireba saqarTvelos damoukidebel saxelmwifod

CamoyalibebasTan mimarTebaSi

winamdebare Tavis mizania vuCvenoT Cvens mier ganxiluli aSS-is

sagareo politikis sistemis operireba drois mocemul monakveTSi

konkretuli `obieqti~ saxelmwifos -- saqarTvelos mimarT. amave dros, Tu

meore TavSi, sadac SevecadeT gagveanalizebina aSS-is sagareo politikis

sistemis funqcionirebis meqanizmi, ZiriTadad veyrdnobodiT Cveni modelis

SemecnebiT-analitikur funqcias, mocemul TavSi, aRniSnul funqciasTan

erTad, daveyrdnobiT prognostul-analitikur funqciasac, romelic

saSualebas mogvcems, erTi mxriv, gavaanalizoT saqarTvelos saSinao da

sagareo politikis erTi garkveuli sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo politikis

sakiTxad Camoyalibebis procesi da, meore mxriv, ganvsazRvroT mocemul

sakiTxze -- da ufro swored mis drosTan adaptirebul variaciaze -- aSS-

is sagareo politikis ganviTarebis SesaZlo mimarTulebebi. kerZod, Cveni

modeli saSualebas gvaZlevs davaxasiaToT, Tu rogor aisaxeba

saerTaSoriso garemosa da aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos gamoyofil

paramatrebze (Y) saqarTvelos saSinao da sagareo politikis garkveuli

parametri da misi Semadgeneli cladebi (X). amgvari asaxvis Sedegebs Cven

ukve ganvixilavT, rogorc (Y) parametrebis axal cvladebs (YX), romlebic

Sesabamis zegavlenas axdenen aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaze.

drois periodSi, romelSic ganvixilavT Cveni modelis

funqcionirebas da romelic amavdroulad kritikulia Tavad saqarTvelos

saxelmwifoebriobis ganviTarebis TvsalsazrisiT, gamovyofT saqarTvelos

saSinao da sagareo politikis Semdeg urTierTdakavSirebul ZiriTad

parametrebs: `saqarTvelos suverenitetis uzrunvelyofa~ da `saqarTvelos

98

Sida da gare usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa.~ `saqarTvelos suverenitetis

uzrunvelyofis~ parametrze, Tavis mxriv, gamovyofT or umniSvnelovanes

cvlads - `saqarTvelos brZolas damoukideblobisaTvis ~ da `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobis damkvidrebas;~ xolo `saqarTvelos Sida da gare

usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis~ parametrze gamovyofT sam umniSvnelovanes

cvlads -- `saqarTvelos Sida politikur-ekonomikur stabilurobas,~

`saqarTvelos politikur-eTnikur konfliqtebs~ da `saqarTvelos

urTierTobebs regionalur saxelmwifoebTan." migvaCnia, romAaRniSnuli

parametrebi da maTi Semadgeneli cvladebi yvelaze mniSvnelovania aSS-is

erovnul interesebTan mimarTebaSi, gamomdinare im zogadi konteqstis

mniSvnelobidan, romelic moicavs: samxreT kavkasiis regionis politikur

da samxedro stabilurobas; regionis ekonomikur ganviTarebas da

ideologiur orientacias; da regionis Sida da gare politikur-

ekonomikuri kavSirebis ganviTarebas (Odom and Dujarric, 1995, pp.2-3, p.81;

utiaSvili, 2000, gv.37-60).

am naSromSi, modelis ilustraciis mizniT, Cven gavaanalizebT

mxolod pirvel cvlads - `saqarTvelos brZolas damoukideblobisaTvis,~

romlis asaxvac saerTaSoriso garemosa da aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos

gamoyofil paramatrebze uaRresad winaaRmdegobriv xasiaTs atarebda da

amave dros Seicavda niSandobliv miniSnebebs, rogorc arsebuli

globaluri politikuri reJimis, aseve saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa

Teoriis TvalsazrisiT.

3.1 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi

3.1.1 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis urTierTqmedebebi saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolas~ ganvixilavT, rogorc

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis garemoSi gamoyofil `obieqti

saxelmwifos~ Sris cvlads, romelic pirvel rigSi, urTierTqmedebaSi

Sedis saerTaSoriso garemos im parametrebTan da cvladebTan, romlebic,

99

Tavis mxriv, Seadgenen saerTaSoriso garemos `arastabilurobis~ da

`mouwesrigeblobis~ maxasiaTeblebs. kerZod, upirveles yovlisa, es aris

`komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametri da misi Sesabamisi cvladebi. sabWoTa

kavSirTan mimarTebaSi, `komunizmis damarcxebis~ aRniSnuli parametris

cvladebs Soris, pirvel rigSi, gamovyofT `baltiispireTis respublikebis

mier damoukideblobis gamocxadebas~, `sabWoTa kavSiris centraluri

mTavrobis mier axali sakavSiro xelSekrulebis gaformebis mcdelobas~ da

`putCis Cavardnas~. vTvliT, rom aRniSnuli sami cvladi warmoadgens

sabWoTa kavSirSi komunizmis damarcxebis parametris gansxvavebul

aspeqtebs. amave dros, migvaCnia, rom saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze

`saqarvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis urTierTqmedeba

aRniSnul cvladebTan mniSvnelovnad ganapirobebs saqarTvelos

damoukideblobis sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo politikis sakiTxad formirebas.

3.1.1.1 baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukidebloba

1990 w. baltiispireTis respublikebis mier damoukideblobis

gamocxadebas, rogorc cnobilia, farTo saerTaSoriso rezonansi mohyva da

Tuki gaviTvaliswinebT im faqts, rom aSS-s oficialurad arc arasodes

uRiarebia baltiispireTis iZulebiTi gaerTianeba sabWoTa kavSirSi,

logikuri iqneboda gvevarauda, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis

Sesavalze aRniSnuli faqtori SeiZenda `radikaluri~ cvladis

mniSvnelobas, romelic sistemis gamosaval etapze mniSvnelovan cvlilebebs

gamoiwvevda yvela Sesabamis moTamaSesTan mimarTebaSi. Cven vakeTebT

sapirispiro daskvnas Semdeg msjelobaze dayrdnobiT.

1990 w. Jurnali `kongreSenal kvorterli~ werda, rom litvis mier

damoukideblobis gamocxadebas adgili hqonda erTob uxerxul dros

rogorc sabWoTa kavSirisaTvis, aseve Tavad dasavleTisTvis (Congressional

Quarterly, April 7, 1990). marTlac, litvis moTxovnam warmoaCina gorbaCovis

mTavrobis Sida sirTuleebi, buSisTvis ki, romelic mxars uWerda

gorbaCovis reformebs, am ukanasknelis politikur warmatebas didi

100

mniSvneloba hqonda sakuTari Sidapolitikuri poziciebis gasamtkiceblad.

arsebobda mosazrebac, rom gorbaCovis interesebis gaTvaliswinebiT, buSi

imisTvisac ki iyo mzad, rom daeTmo litvis damoukidebloba (PPipes, Hearing

before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on European Affairs, 1991, p.42). kerZod, moskovis da

litvis dapirispirebis Taobaze, buSi acxadebda, rom aSS-is sagareo

politika ar iyo mimarTuli gorbaCovsa da landsbergiss Soris arCevanis

gakeTebaze; aSS mxars uWerda erTa TviTgamorkvevas, magram misTvis

upirvelesi mniSvneloba am procesis mSvidobian warmarTvas hqonda. igive

pozicia Camoayaliba buSma latviis damoukideblobis mopovebis procesis

mimarTac; aSS-is mTavrobis erTaderTi rCeva iqneboda dialogis warmarTva

moskovTan, romelSic aSS ver Seasrulebda Suamavlis rols (Congressional

Quarterly, May 5, 1990). sagulisxmoa, rom mas Semdegac ki, rodesac gorbaCovma

tankebi gagzavna vilniusSi, kongresma miiRo rezolucia, romelic sakmaod

rbilad akritikebda mis qmedebas. zogierTi eqsperti imasac ki miiCnevda,

rom aSS-m da sabWoTa kavSirma miaRwies farul SeTanxmebas, romlis

Tanaxmadac aSS sityvierad Searbilebda Tavis pozicias baltiispireTis

Taobaze, iqidan sabWoTa jarebis gamoyvanisa da sparseTis yureSi sabWoTa

mxardaWeris sanacvlod. amgvari kompromisi harvardis universitetis

mkvlevaris n. goldmanis mier Sefasebuli iyo, rogorc administraciis

`moqnili xelovneba~ (Congressional Quarterly, February 2, 1991)

1991 w. 2 seqtembris preskonferenciaze, sadac buSma oficialurad

ganacxada baltiispireTis respublikebis cnobis Sesaxeb, 1 man kidev

erTxel gamoxata gorbaCovis mxrdaWera da ganacxada, rom baltiispireTis

precendenti ar gulisxmobda aSS-is analogiur pozicias sxva

respublikebisadmi. TiToeuli respublikis sakiTxs aSS ganixilavda

damoukideblad, respublikebsa da centrs Soris urTierTobebis garkvevis

kvaldakval (Congressional Quarterly, September 7, 1991).

1 sagulisxmoa, rom buSs meti dro dasWirda, raTa sruli diplomatiuri aRiareba mieniWebina baltiispireTis respublikebisaTvis, SedarebiT dasavleTis sxva saxelmwifoebTan, romelTac putCis CavardnisTanave scnes baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukidebloba.

101

zemoaRniSnulidan gamomdinare, SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom

marTalia baltiispireTis movlenebis cvlads, sistemis gamosaval etapze

sabolood mohyva Tvisobrivad axali Sedegi, anu baltiispireTis

respublikebTan, rogorc suverenul saxelmwifoebTan, diplomatiuri

urTierTobebis damyareba, damoukideblobis mopovebisTvis mebrZol sxva

respublkebTan mimarTebaSi, igi ar warmoadgenda `radikalur~ cvlads,

vinaidan maTTan damokidebulebaSi mas arsebiTad ar Seucvlia aSS-is

politikis ZiriTadi mimarTuleba -- sabWoTa kavSiris erTiani (Tumca

transformirebuli) struqturis SenarCunebis mcdeloba.

3.1.1.2 sakavSiro xelSekruleba

rogorc cnobilia, gorbaCovis mTavrobis mier axali sakavSiro

xelSekrulebis Taobaze 1991 w. aprilis gadawyvetilebis miRebas win

uZRoda 1991 w. martis centraluri mTavrobis referendumi, sabWoTa

kavSiris, `rogorc Tanabaruflebiani suverenuli respublikebis

ganaxlebuli federaciis,~ SenarCunebis Sesaxeb. miuxedavad referendumis

sakmaod orazrovani xasiaTisa, rac sakmaod mZafrad iyo warmoCenili

kongresis mosmenebze, 1 mas istebliSmentis mkafio reaqcia ar mohyolia.

erTaderT gamonaklisad SeiZleba CaiTvalos kongresis `evropaSi

usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisiis moxseneba, romelSic

referendumi warmodgenilia, rogorc respublikebiT manipulirebis

`unayofo mcdeloba~. Tumca amave moxsenebaSi xazgasmulia, rom amgvar

Tundac warumatebel referendums SeuZlia dasabami daudos `realur

molaparakebebs~ centrsa da respublikebs Soris arsebuli

winaaRmdegobebis dasaZlevad (Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 1991).

1 mxedvelobaSi gvaqvs kongresis warmomadgenelTa palatis sagareo saqmeTa komitetis evropisa da axlo aRmosavleTis, adamianis uflebebis da saerTaSoriso organizaciebis qvekomitetebis mosmenebi, romlebic uSualod mieZRvna sabWoTa referendumis Temas da mis orazrovan mniSvnelobas demokratizaciis procesisaTvis. (Referendum in the Soviet Union: Implications for Democratization. Hearing before the Subcommittees on Europe and the Middle East and on Human

102

amgvar fonze savsebiT logikuria, rom buSis administraciam mxari

dauWira 1991 w. 23 aprilis gadawyvetilebas ruseTsa da 9 respublikas

Soris, e.w. `1+9~ SeTanxmebis miRwevis Taobaze. rogorc ambobda saxelmwifo

mdivani j. beikeri, axali sakavSiro xelSekrulebisa da axali

konstituciis meSveobiT, sabWoTa kavSirSi Seiqmneboda axali politikuri

legitimurobis miRwevis SesaZlebloba (Baker, 1991, p. 682).

amgvarad, marTalia erTi mxriv, aSS-is politikuri istebliSmentis

mier xelSekrulebis mxardaWeris politika SeiZleba warmoCenili iyos,

rogorc im winaaRmdegobis moxsna, romelic arsebobda gorbaCovis

mTavrobasTan TanamSromlobasa da respublikebis demokratiuli Zalebis

mxardaWeras Soris -- rogorc amas, magaliTad, amtkicebs `rend

korporeiSenis~ specialisti arnold horeliki (Horelick, 1991, p.90 ) --

migvaCnia, rom realurad igi asaxavda centraluri mTavrobisa da erTiani

sabWoTa kavSiris struqturis SenarCunebis xelSewyobis politikas,

respublikebSi `separatistuli~ moZraobebis ganviTarebis sapirispirod.

amgvarad, damoukideblobisaTvis mebrZol respublikebTan mimarTebaSi,

axali sakavSiro xelSekrulebis miRebis mcdeloba, warmoadgens susti

`radikalurobis~ matarebel cvlads, romlis zemoqmedebac aSS-is sagareo

politikis sistemis gamosaval etapze aisaxeba aSS-is xelisuflebis mier

sabWoTa kavSiris transformaciis am yvelaze sasurveli scenaris

mxardaWeraSi (Carpenter, 1991, p.38; Fairbanks, 2000, piradi interviu).

3.1.1.3 putCi

1991 w. 19-21 agvistos `putCis~ movlenebi Cvens mier ganixileba,

rogorc `radikaluri" cvladi, romelsac aSS-is sagareo politikuri

sistemis gamosavalze mniSvnelovani Sedegebi mohyva yvela sabWoTa

respublikasTan mimarTebaSi. `putCis~ dramatulma Cavardnam cxadyo

Rights and International Organizations of the Committee on Foreign Affairs House of Representatives, One Hundred Second Congress, First Session, March 13, 1991, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington: 1991)

103

komunisturi reJimis sruli gabankroteba da dasabami daudo politikuri

aqcentebis respublikebze gadanacvlebas.

rogorc cnobilia, `putCs~ win uZRoda boris elcinis ivnisis viziti

vaSingtonSi, rodesac gansxvavebiT TeTri saxlis administraciisagan 1 ukve

sakmaod naTlad gamoikveTa kongresis gaZlierebuli yuradReba

respublikebisadmi (Congressional Quarterly, June 22, 1991). amave dros, `putCis~

Cavardnis Semdeg, buSis davalebiT moskovSi saswrafod Camodis j. beikeri,

romelic acxadebs, rom aSS-is survilia iTanaSromlos elcinTan da

sabWoTa kavSiris sxva mowinave reformatorebTan qveynis politikuri da

ekonomikuri transformaciis xelSewyobis mizniT (US Department of State

Dispatch, September 16, 1991). Tumca, is ZiriTadi problema, romelic kvlavac

rCeba politikuri istebliSmentis winaSe, isev da isev sabWoTa kavSiris

fragmentacia da respublikebis xelisuflebis legitimurobaa (Zoellick,

October 2, 1991, US Department of State Dispatch, October 7, 1991).

uSualod saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi, `putCis~ faqtors sakmaod

orazrovani mniSvneloba hqonda. erTi mxriv, rogorc yvela danarCen

respublikasTan mimarTebaSi, `putCma~ uCvena komunisturi reJimis

dabrunebis saSiSroeba da, Sesabamisad, meti legitimuroba SesZina

damoukideblobis moZraobas; magram meore mxriv, `putCma~ arasasurvel

SuqSi warmoaCina saqarTvelos imJamindeli xelisufleba, romlis poziciac

mis mimarT sakmaod konformistuli aRmoCnda.

*****

migvaCnia, rom aSS sagareo politikis sistemis saerTaSoriso garemos

Sreze, `komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametris sami cvladis --

`baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukideblobis,~ `sakavSiro

xelSekrulebis,~ da `putCis~ -- urTierTqmedeba `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladTan, erTi mxriv, akninebs sakuTriv

saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis sakiTxis mniSvnelobas

1 vizitis dros buSma araorazrovnad ganucxada elcins, rom aSS kvlavac SeinarCunebda maqsimalurad axlo oficialur urTierTobebs gorbaCovis mTavrobasTan.

104

sabWoTa kavSiris erTiani struqturis SenarCunebis sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi,

da, meore mxriv, eWvqveS ayenebs mis TavisTavad Rirebulebas WeSmariti

demokratiulobis TvalsazrisiT. Sesabamisad, amgvari urTierTqmedebis

rogorc obieqturi aseve subieqturi Sedegebi xels uwyobs `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis uaryofiT asaxvas Cveni modelis

meore -- aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos Sreze.

3.1.2 `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis

urTierTqmedebebi Sidapolitikur Sreze

migvaCnia, rom Cvens mier aRwerili modelis Sidapolitikur Sreze,

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi, pirvel rigSi,

urTierTqmedebaSi Sedis ideologiuri struqturis parametrebTan da

cvladebTan. ganvixiloT aRniSnuli urTierTqmedebani Cveni modelis

funqcionirebis Tanaxmad.

3.1.2.1 masmedia da sazogadoebrivi azri

rogorc vuCveneT kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, drois periodSi,

romelic xasiaTdeba aSS-is Sidapolitikuri Sris socialur-ekonomikuri

struqturis negatiuri parametrebiT (ekonomikuri zrdis Senelebuli tempi,

savaWro da sabiujeto tyupi deficitebi), mediis `intensiuri gaSuqebis~ da

sazogadoebrivi azris `konsolidaciis~ parametrebze ZiriTadad qveynis

Sida politikur-ekonomikuri sakiTxebi eqcevian. aseve vuCveneT, rom

mediaSi saerTaSoriso garemos movlenaTa gaSuqeba ZiriTadad asaxavs

saerTaSoriso garemos ganviTarebas `mouwesrigeblobis,~

`arastabilurobis~ da `dezintegraciis~ Sesabamisi parametrebis mixedviT,

rac, Tavis mxriv, ar uwyobs xels sazogadoebrivi azris konsolidirebas

saerTaSoriso movlenebSi aSS-is intensiuri monawileobis Taobaze. anu,

sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, saerTaSoriso garemosTan mimarTebaSi,

105

sazogadoebrivi azris ganviTareba mimdinareobs `gafantulobis~

parametrze.

migvaCnia, rom `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi

swored rom sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ da mediis `wyvetili~

gaSuqebis amgvar parametrebze aisaxeba, sadac TviT sabWoTa kavSiris

calkeul respublikebad daSlis perspeqtivac ki ar iwvevs sazogadoebrivi

azris Sesabamis fokusirebas. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis periodSi aSS-Si

Catarebuli gamokiTxvebi uCveneben, rom mosaxleobis did nawils ar hqonda

gaazrebuli, Tu ra mniSvneloba SeiZleba hqonoda sabWoTa sistemis

politikur da ekonomikur dezintegracias, rogorc Tavad aSS-is, aseve

globaluri usafrTxoebis TvalsazrisiT (Congressional Quarterly, June 8, 1991).

amgvar fonze, is mwiri informaciac, romelic Cndeba presaSi saqarTvelos

damoukideblobasTan mimarTebaSi negatiuri Sinaarsia da ZiriTadad moicavs

sam Temas. es Temebia: 1. `nacionalisti lideri~ gamsaxurdias dapirispireba

ruseTTan. am Temis konteqstSi gaSuqebulia ori ZiriTadi sakiTxi:

saqarTvelos uari monawileoba miiRos damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa

Tanamegobrobis SeqmnaSi; da ruseTis dadanaSauleba saqarTvelos

Sidapolitikuri konfliqtebis inspirirebaSi. 2. gamsaxurdias

dapirispireba dasavleTTan. am Temis konteqstSi ZiriTadad gaSuqebulia

gamsaxurdias braldeba aSS-is mimarT saqarTvelos damoukideblobis

winaaRmdeg konspiraciaSi. 3. damoukideblobis mopovebis procesSi `brZola

qarTvelebs Soris.~ am Temis farglebSi gaSuqebulia gamsaxurdias

dapirispireba Sidapolitikur opoziciasTan. 1

1 mocemuli analizi efuZneba Semdeg sagazeTo publikaciebs: Eleven Republics Lay USSR to Rest, Wall Street Journal , December 23, 1991; Georgia Leader Says Kremlin Stirring Unrest, The Atlanta Constitution, February 7, 1991; Kremlin Role Questioned in Georgian Ethnic Strife, New York Times Current Events Edition, February 10, 1991; Civil Strife: Soviet Georgia Is Torn By Groups Competing In Independence Drive, Wall Street Journal, February 21, 1991; Georgian Nationalist Wins Election, May 28, 1991; Georgians Blast Leader, Chicago Tribune, September 9, 1991; Leaders Show their Old Habits, New York Times Current Events Edition, September 18, 1991; Soviet Georgians Feud Fights, USA Today, September 20, 1991; Soviet Georgian Police Beat Up Dissidents, USA Today, September 22, 1991; Georgia Chief Alleges U.S.-Soviet Conspiracy, The Washington Post, September 11, 1991.

106

saqarTvelosTan SedarebiT, damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis sakiTxi

ufro pozitiurad aris gaSuqebuli azerbaijanTan da, gansakuTrebiT,

somxeTTan mimarTebaSi, sadac wamoweulia Semdegi Temebi: azerbaijanis

prezidentis mutalibovis mzadyofna monawileoba mieRo dsT-s

Camoyalibebis procesSi; somxeTis umaRlesi sabWos mier damoukideblobis

deklaraciis damtkiceba saerTo saxalxo referendumis Semdgom; somxeTis

pirveli demokratiulad arCeuli prezidentis ter-petrosianis mzadyofna

respublikis sruli damoukideblobis misaRwevad; ter-petrosianis viziti

vaSingtonSi da saubari prezident buSTan aSS-is mier somxeTis

damoukideblobis aRiarebis Taobaze; 1

vTvliT, rom mediaSi samxreT kavkasiis danarCeni ori respublikis

Sesabamisi problemebis gaSuqebis SedarebiT dadebiTi konteqsti, uaryofiT

kontrastSi warmoaCens sakuTriv saqarTvelos problematikas.

saqarTvelos damoukideblobis sakiTxis amerikul mediaSi asaxul sam

ZiriTad zemoaRniSnul Temas Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc mediis `wyvetili

gaSuqebis~ parametris Semadgenel sam cvlads, romlebic, Tavis mxriv,

ganapirobeben `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis aSS-

is sagareo politikis sakiTxad Camoyalibebas.

Cvens xelT arsebuli informaciiT, drois mocemuli periodisaTvis,

ar arsebobs sazogadoebrivi azris gamokiTxvis monacemebi uSualod

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi.

Tumca, Cveni modeliT gaTvaliswinebuli korelacia masmediisa da

sazogadoebrivi azris Sesabamis parametrebs Soris iZleva evristuli

daskvnis gakeTebis saSualebas -- anu, mediis mier `saqarTvelos

1 gamoyofili Temebi efuZneba Semdeg sagazeTo publikaciebs: Moldova , Azerbaijan Bring 11 Republics Behind Commonwealth, Boston Globe, December 21, 1991; Azerbaijan Suspicious of Commonwealth Plan, The Washington Post, December 15, 1991; Armenia Declares Independence, The Los Angeles Times, September 24, 1991; Democratic Spirit Sweeps Armenia, Christian Science Monitor, October 17, 1991; Leader Vows Secession As Armenians Go to Polls, Boston Globe, October 17, 1991; Armenian Leader Seeks Recognition of Republic by Bush, Christian Science Monitor, November 14, 1991; Bush Tells Armenian Leader U.S. Seeks Relationship, The Washington Post, November 15, 1991.

107

damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ negatiuri Sinaarsis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~

parametri, garkveul wilad, aseve gulisxmobs aRniSnul sakiTxze

sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ parametris amoqmedebasac. aseve

evristul doneze miviCnevT, rom amgvari `gafatulobis~ parametric Tavisi

Sinaarsobrivi datvirTviT negatiuria. anu, amerikuli sazogadoebis im

nawilisaTvis, romelic ecnoba presis mimoxilvebs, `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobisaTvis brZola~ ZiriTad mis Sida da gare konfliqtebTan

aris asocirebuli.

aSS sazogadoebrivi azris amgvari, Tundac hipoteturi pozicia, Cvens

mier ganixileba, rogorc sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ parametris

cvladi, romelic, garkveul wilad, gansazRvravs `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo politikis

sakiTxad Camoyalibebas.

3.1.2.2 specialuri interesebi

rogorc avRniSneT Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, specialuri

interesebis `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametri umetes wilad korelaciaSia

mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~ da sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~

parametrebTan.

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi ar aisaxeba

interesTa jgufebis `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametrze, anu sabWoTa

kavSiris daSlis periodisaTvis, Cvens xelT arsebuli monacemebiT,

aRniSnuli sakiTxi ar warmaodgens romelime organizebuli jgufis

lobirebis sagans. 1 meore mxriv, Tu specialuri intersebis kategoriidan

calke gamovyofT adamianis uflebebze momuSave arasamTavrobo

1 Tumca, jer kidev 1921 wels kanzaseli kongresmeni edvard liTeli aSS-is ruseTTan megobruli urTierTobebis damyarebis wil, moiTxovda somxeTidan, azerbaijanidan da saqarTvelodan ruseTis `okupaciuri jarebis~ gayvanas; 1926 da 1954 wlebSi saqarTvelos damoukideblobis sakiTxs mieZRvna kongrsis warmomadgenelTa palatis ori sakomiteto mosmena; da Semdgom, 1969 wels `amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi saqarTvelos asociaciam~ gamarTa saqarTvelos mier damoukideblobis gamocxadebis 50 wlisTavisaTvis miZRvnili konferencia.

108

organizaciebs, analitikuri centrebsa da akademiuri wreebis

warmomadgenlebs, udaod gamoikveTeba garkveuli zemoqmedeba, gansakuTrebiT

politikur istebliSmentTan mimarTebaSi. Tumca aq aRsaniSnavia is faqti,

rom aRniSnuli interesebis fokusSi saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis

brZolis sakiTxi ar warmoadgens gamokveTilad calke mdgom sakiTxs, da

warmoCenilia sabWoTa respublikebis erovnul-ganmanTavisuflebeli

moZraobebis ufro farTo konteqstSi. migvaCnia, rom erovnul-

ganmanTavisuflebel moZraobebTan dakavSirebiT, arasamTvrobo

organizaciebis, analitikuri centrebis da akademiuri wreebis, iseve

rogorc maT mier gaSualebuli politikuri istebliSmentis TvalTaxedvas

ori mimarTuleba axasiaTebs:

a) pirveli mimarTuleba dasabams iRebs 1970-iani wlebis Sua

periodidan, rodesac vietnamis omisa da `uotergeitis~ fonze, aSS-is

sagareo politikis wina planze gamoikveTeba e.w. `moralisturi~ aspeqti da

adamianis uflebebis dacvis sakiTxi gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas iZens. 1

swored adamianis uflebebis problemis gagrZelebad iyo aRqmuli

sabWoTa respublikebis 1990-iani wlebis brZola erovnuli

TviTgamorkvevisTvis amerikeli analitikosebis da politikosebis erTi

nawilis mier (Raanan, 1990, pp.45-47; Seitz, 1990, pp.73-75). ukve 1989 w.

warmomadgenelTa palatis sagareo urTierTobaTa komitetis adamianis

uflebaTa da saerTaSoriso organizaciebis qvekomitetis mosmenaze

aRiniSneboda, rom somxeTis, saqarTvelos da azerbaijanis e.w. erovnuli

sakiTxebi ar unda yofiliyo aRqmuli, rogorc `eTnikuri problemebi~, an

`socialuri uwesrigobani~, vinaidan sinamdvileSi isini warmoadgendnen

brZolas erovnuli TviTgamorkvevisaTvis, romelic iseve imsaxurebda aSS-is

mxardaWeras, rogorc amas imsaxurebda adamianis uflebebis dacvis

moZraoba `perestroikis~ dawyebamde (Thorne, 1989, pp.164-165). harvardis

1 rogorc cnobilia, 1975 w. prezidenti fordi, dasavleTis mokavSireebTan erTad, xels awers `helsinkis daskvniT aqts,~ romlis debulebebis udidesi nawili adamianis uflebebis dacvas eZRvneba. amave dros, am debulebebiT gansazRvruli saerTaSoriso standartebi didwilad mimarTuli iyo sabWoTa represiuli praqtikis SezRudvaze.

109

universitetis profesori riCard paipsi axsenebda amerikel kongresmenebs,

rom Tuki aSS mxars uWerda sabWoTa kavSiris demokratizacias, misi daSla

dadebiTi movlena unda yofiliyo, vinaidan demokratiuli Zalebi

moqmedebdnen ara sakavSiro, aramed respublikur doneze da sabWoTa

kavSiridan gamoyofa swored am demokratiul Zalebs surdaT (Pipes, 1991,

p.42). `adamianis uflebebis dacvis saerTaSoriso ligis~ mier

warmomadgenelTa palatis adamianis uflebebis dacvis qvekomitetisadmi

wardgenil moxsenebaSi aRniSnulia, rom marTalia sabWoTa konstitucia

respublikebs aniWebs gamoyofis uflebas, igi realurad ganuxorcielebadia

(International League for Human Rights, 1989, pp.4-5). bostonis universitetis

profesori uri raanani kiTxvis niSnis qveS ayenebs sabWoTa kavSiris

daSliT gamowveuli SesaZlo destabilizaciis yvelaze xmamaRal

argumentebs, amtkicebs ra, rom imperiul sabWoTa saxelmwifosTan

SedarebiT, damoukidebeli saqarTvelo, an damoukidebeli litva ar

Seuqmnis muqaras saerTaSoriso sazogadoebriobas (Raanan, 1991, p.50).

Tumca, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom ukanaskneli Tvalsazrisis gamoklebiT,

gamoyofili poziciis farglebSic ki, aSS-is urTierTobebi respublikebTan

moiazreba, rogorc moskovis centralur mTavrobasTan damyarebuli

urTierTobebis Semavsebeli, da ara Semcvleli mimarTuleba (Carpenter, 1991,

p.42; Simes, 1991, pp. 462-463).

kerZod, kongresis mosmenebze gamoTqmuli rekomendaciebi

respublikebTan mimarTebaSi Semdegnaerad SeiZleba davajgufoT:

- centrTan konstruqciuli urTierTobebis SenarCunebis paralelurad,

aSS-ma unda ganaxorcielos pirdapiri daxmareba im respublikebisadmi,

sadac xelisuflebaSi demokratiuli gziT arCeuli xelmZRvaneloba

movida.

- sabWoTa kavSiris saerTaSoriso organizaciebSi gawevrianebis

mxardaWeris paralelurad, aSS-ma unda gaiziaros respublikebis

survili gawevriandnen saerTaSoriso savaluto fondsa da sxva

110

saerTaSoriso organizaciebSi. aSS eqsport-import banksa da `opiks~

(sazRvargareT kerZo investirebis korporacias) aseve unda mieces

rekomendaciebi mxari dauWiron calkeuli proeqtebis ganxorcielebas

respublikebSi.

- aSS-is pozicia Tavisufali vaWrobis ganviTarebis Sesaxeb, unda

iTvaliswinebdes centralur evropas, baltispireTs da kavkasiis

respublikebs.

- gorbaCovis `zemodan-qvemoT~ demokratizaciis kursis mxardaWeris

paralelurad, aSS-ma mxari unda dauWiros demokratizacias `qvemodan-

zemoT~ da xeli Seuwyos respublikebis doneze pluralistuli

sazogadoebis ganviTarebas.

amgvarad, xazi gvinda gavusvaT, rom respublikebis mxardamWeri

zemoaRniSnuli rekomendaciebi amave dros gaweuli iyo centraluri

mTavrobis mxardaWeris konteqstSi.

b) meore mimarTuleba efuZneba aSS-is mier sabWoTa kavSiris

teritoriuli mTlianobis aRiarebas, xolo respublikebis swrafvas

damoukideblobisadmi afasebs rogorc nacionalistur, separatistul

moZraobas.

1990 w. senatis sakomiteto mosmenaze gamosvlisas, z. bJezinski

acxadebs, rom erovnuli sakiTxi sabWoTa kavSirSi sul ufro mZafri xdeba

da aisaxeba ara mxolod moskovis politikur debatebSi, aramed fizikur

ZaladobaSic (Bzezinski, 1990, p.6). SeiZleba iTqvas, rom aRniSnuli erovnuli

problema, rogorc akademiuri, aseve politikuri wreebis warmoamdgenelTa

umravlesobis mier gaigivebulia destruqciul nacionalizmTan,

gansxavvebiT civiluri, aRmSenebluri nacionalizmisagan, romelic

dasavleTis damaxasiaTebel niSnad aris miCneuli. sabWoTa nacionalizmis

aRzevebis ZiriTad mizezad moiazreba is, rom gorbaCovis mier globaluri

klasobrivi brZolis ideis uaryofis Sedegad, komunizmis idea Secvala

nacionalizmis ideam, rogorc xalxebis TviTidentifikaciis erTaderTma

saSualebam. amave dros, gansxvavebiT dasavleTis nacionalizmisagan,

111

romelic gawonasworebulia sagareo savaWro-ekonomikuri urTierTobebiT,

ekonomikuri siduxWire da brZola arasakmarisi resursebisaTvis amZafrebs

sabWoTa nacionalizms. sabWoTa nacionalizmis aRzeveba aseve pirdapir aris

dakavSirebuli da xSirad gaigivebuli eTnikuri winaaRmdegobebis

gamwvavebasTan, ris gamomwvev ZiriTad mizezebad moiazreba:

- centris mxridan disidenturi Tvalsazrisebis devnis Sewyveta;

- sabWoTa kavSiris ekonomikuri krizisi da misi Semdgomi gamwvaveba

eTnikur niadagze. 1

zemoaRniSnulis fonze, politikur debatebSi nacionalizmis sakiTxi

ZiriTadad daxasiaTebulia, rogorc muqara sabWoTa kavSiris

stabilurobisadmi.

1991 w. warmomadgenelTa palatis erT-erT mosmenaze gamoikveTa

mosazreba, rom maSin rodesac gorbaCovis mier SemoTavazebuli axali

sakavSiro xelSekruleba icavda respublikebSi mcxovrebi erovnuli

umciresobebis uflebebs, srulebiTac ar iyo cxadi, rom, sabWoTa kavSiris

daSlis SemTxvevaSi, aRniSnuli uflebebi aseve daculi iqneboda calkeuli

respublikebis mier. mosazreba efuZneboda arguments, rom kerZod samxreT

kavkasiis respublikebSi (saqarTvelos konkretuli miTiTebiT), nacionaluri

ganwyobebis aRzevebas mohyva represiebi erovnuli umciresobebis mimarT

(Carpenter, 1991, pp. 32-33). 1991 w. madlen olbraiti (im periodSi `erovnuli

politikisa da kvleviTi centris~ prezidenti) kongresis erT-erT mosmenaze

acxadebda, rom sabWoTa kavSiris romelime erTi jgufis uflebebis cnobas

SeeZlo muqara Seeqmna sxva jgufebis uflebebisadmi, rogorc, kerZod, es

xdeboda saqarTveloSi, somxeTsa da azerbaijanSi (Albright, 1991, p. 483).

amgvarad, moiazreba, rom sabWoTa kavSiris daSlas Tan axlavs

calkeuli respublikebis farglebSi da, pirvel rigSi, samxreT kavkasiis

respublkebSi, erovnul umciresobaTa uflebebis Selaxvis realuri

saSiSroeba. aRiniSneba isic, rom erovnuli moZraobis talRaze mosuli

zogierTi respublikis lideri ufro metad dainteresebulia Zalauflebis

112

mopovebiT, vidre pluralisturi demokratiuli sazogadoebis

ganviTarebiT. gamomdinare aRniSnuli poziciidan, erovnuli moZraobisa da

eTnikuri konfliqtebis pirispir, centraluri xelisufleba aRiqmeboda,

rogorc politikuri, regionaluri da ekonomikuri stabilurobis

xelSemwyobi Zala (Soviet Disunion: The American Response, 1991, p.40). centraluri

mTavrobis mxardasaWerad, akademiur wreebSi gamoiTqmeboda mosazrebac, rom

gorbaCovis bolodroindeli qmedebebi ganpirobebuli iyo ara imdenad

komunisturi memarjvene flangis zewoliT, ramdenadac misi sakuTari

mcdelobiT moqceuliyo `slavuri eleqtoratis~ ZiriTad nakadSi. xolo

saxelmwifo mrCevlis r. zoelikis gancxadebiT, gorbaCovma airCia

memarjvene kursi, raTa SeenarCunebina sabWoTa kavSiri da aRedgina wesrigi

reformebis `gadasarCenad.~ zoeliki am kurss `avtokratuli reformebis~

kurss uwodebs, anu kurss, rodesac saxelmwifo mimarTavs mkacr zomebs

socialur-ekonomikuri modernizaciis misaRwevad (Zoelic, 1991, pp.11-19).

rogorc avRniSneT, gamoyofili Tvalsazrisis erT-erT ZiriTad

safuZvels warmoadgens aSS-is mier sabWoTa kavSiris teritoriuli

mTlianobis aRiareba. rogorc daadastura warmomadgenelta palatis

sgareo saqmeTa komitetis mosmenaze saxelmwifo mdivnis moadgilem r.

seizma, baltiispireTis respublikebis gamoklebiT, aSS-is politika sabWoTa

kavSiris respublikebis mimarT efuZneba: 1. 1933 w. sabWoTa kavSiris

teritoriuli mTlianobis cnobas da masTan diplomatiuri urTierTobebis

damyarebas; 2 da 2. 1975 w. helsinkis SeTanxmebiT, aSS-is mier arsebuli

sabWoTa sazRvrebis dadasturebas (Seitz, 1990, p.73). Sesabamisad, gamomdinare

aRniSnuli poziciidan, urTierTqmedeba sabWoTa kavSiris centralur

mTavrobasa da mis `teritoriul erTeulebs~ Soris xasiaTdeba, rogorc

sabWoTa kavSiris Sidasaxelmwifoebrivi saqme, romelic `demokratiuli

procesis safuZvelze~ unda gadawydes (Bzezinski, 1990, p.6).

1 sagulisxmoa, rom eTnikur dapirispirebebze msjelobisas, kongresis mosmenebze, pirvel rigSi, kavkasiis magaliTi mohyavT. 2 rogorc cnobilia, am periodSi aranairad ar dasmula sabWoTa kavSiris Semadgeneli respublikebis statusis sakiTxi.

113

amgvarad, erovnul-ganmanTavisuflebeli moZraobebisadmi

arasamTavrobo organizaciebis, analitikuri cenrebisa da akademiuri

wreebis arniSnul or pozicias Cven ganvixilavT, rogorc maTi mxridan

politikur istebliSmentze sakmaod `Zlieri~ zemoqmedebis parametris

cvladebs, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, xels uwyoben `saqarTvelos



3.1.2.3 politikuri istebliSmneti

Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, vuCveneT, rom drois im

periodisTvis, romelic xasiaTdeba aSS-is Sidapolitikuri sistemis

negatiuri socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebiT, moqmedebs `TanamSromlobis~

parametri istebliSmentis samive komponentis liderebs Soris, magram

moqmedebs `gamijnulobis~ parametri, erTi mxriv, TeTri saxlis da

kongresis liderebs da, meore mxriv, sagareo politikis aparatis

SedarebiT ufro dabali rgolis biurokratias Soris. amgvari

urTierTmimarTebebi, Tavis mxriv, korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso sistemis im

parametrebTan da cvladebTan, romlebic Seadgenen `mouwesrigeblobis~ da

`arastabilurobis~ maxasiaTeblebs, kerZoT ki, -- `komunizmis damarcxebis~

da `arastabilurobis axali kerebis warmoqmnis~ parametrebTan da maT

Sesabamis `radikaluri~ mniSvnelobis cvladebTan. aseve vuCveneT, rom

istebliSmentis sami `Stos~ liderebs Soris `TanamSromlobis~ parametri

korelaciaSia partiebis `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametrTan; xolo

ganxilul konkretul SemTxvevaSi, specialuri interesebis (arasamTavrobo

organizaciebis da analitikuri centrebis) politikur istebliSmentze

`Zlieri zemoqmedebis~ parametri aseve korelaciaSia istebliSmentis

`TanamSromlobis~ parametrTan. orive SemTxvevaSi, dadebiTi korelacia

ganpirobebulia zemoT xsenebul saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebiT.

114


(da misi Semadgeneli konkretuli faqtorebi), swored rom warmoadgens

amgvari `radikaluri~ mniSvnelobis matarebel cvlads, romelic aisaxeba

politikuri istebliSmentis liderebis `TanamSromlobis~ parametrze.

Tumca msgavsad `specialuri interesebis~ SemTxvevisa, aqac saqarTvelos

damoukideblobis sakiTxi dgeba ara imdenad, rogorc erTi calkeuli

respublikis sakiTxi, ramdenadac rogorc Tavad sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis

gacilebiT ufro farTo da mwvave sakiTxi (Henning, 2000; Enders, 2000, piradi

interviu). ganvixiloT, Tu rogor aisaxeba sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis

sakiTxi, da mis konteqstSi saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis

sakiTxi, politikuri istebliSmentis `TanamSromlobis~ parametrze.

sabWoTa kavSirSi mimdinare dezintegraciuli procesebis fonze, aSS-

is analitikosebis da politikuri istebliSmentis mier aqtiurad ixileba

sabWoTa kavSiris ganviTarebis SesaZlo scenarebi. gamovyofT oTx maTgans,

roemlTac mocemul pariodSi albaTobis sakmao xarisxi gaaCndaT: 1.

`perestroikis~ bolo periodis `zigzagebis~ proecireba reformebisa da

represiebis kursis monacvleobaze. mosalodnelia Zalis gamoyeneba

`separatistuli~ respublikebis mimarT. 2. sabWoTa kavSiris evoluciuri

gziT ganviTareba, romelic moqnili federaluri struqturebis

Camoyalibebiskenaa mimarTuli. 3. xelisuflebaSi Zlieri Sovinisturi

ruseTis ideiT SeiaraRebuli represiuli Zalebis mosvla. saerTaSoriso

asparezze es Zalebi cdiloben dakarguli sabWoTa poziciebis dabrunebas.

4. sabWoTa kavSiris daSla `balkanizirebul~ respublikebad, avtonomiur

olqebad da regionebad, sadac TiToeuli maTgani amyarebs sakuTar

xelisuflebas da wyvets TanamSromlobas yofil partniorebTan.

mosalodnelia ltolvilTa masobrivi migraciebi da arastabilurobis

gavrceleba aRmosavleT evropisa da samxreTis muslimanuri saxelmwifoebis

mimarTulebiT (Allison, Blackwill, 1991, pp.77-97).

eWvgareSea, rom aSS-is politikuri istebliSmentisaTvis yvelaze

sasurvelia meore scenari -- transformirebuli sabWoTa kavSiris, rogorc

115

erTiani saxelmwifos SenarCuneba, demokratiuli politikuri sistemiTa da

sabazro ekonomikiT. rogorc aRniSnavs z. BbJezinski, transformirebuli

sabWoTa kavSiri dasavleTis sagareo politikis `Suqura~ unda iyos

(Bzezinski, 1991, p. 14). meore mxriv, im SemTxvevaSic ki Tu sabWoTa kavSiris

Sida poltikuri movlenebi evoluciurad ganviTardeba, misi sagareo

politika kvlavac problematuri rCeba aSS politikuri

istebliSmentisTvis. marTlac, is ZiriTadi sakiTxebi, romlebic am

mimarTebiT gamoikveTeba vaSingtonis winaSe Semdegnairad SeiZleba

Camoyalibdes: iqneba Tu ara moskovi dasavleTis da aSS-is partniori

aRmosavleT evropis ganviTarebaSi? iTanamSromlebs Tu ara moskovi

regionaluri konfliqtebis mogvarebaSi? iTanamSromlebs Tu ara moskovi

masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gadinebis SeCerebaSi?

vaSingtonSi aRmosavleT evropasTan mimarTebiT moskovis or pozicias

afiqsireben. pirveli poziciis Tanaxmad, moskovis sagareo politika `axali

azrovnebis~ Sesabamisi unda yofiliyo da aRmosavleT evropa ganexila

rogorc `dasavleTis zRurbli,~ romelTanac kompromisze dafuZnebuli

dialogi unda waremarTa. marTlac, am pozicias, yovel SemTxvevaSi

deklaraciul doneze mainc, metnaklebad misdevda sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo

saqmeTa saministro. meore poziciis Tanaxmad, romelic ekava komunisturi

partiis centraluri komitetis saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa departaments,

sabWoTa kavSiris oficialur sagareo politikas ar gaaCnda naTeli

strategiuli koncefcia, rac TiTqosda xels uwyobda dasavleTis gavlenis

gavrcelebas da zians ayenebda qveyanas (ibid, pp. 11-12).

ganvixiloT, Tu rogori iyo sabWoTa kavSirisadmi aSS-is politikuri

isetbliSmentis ZiriTadi midgomebi, sabWoTa kavSiris rogorc Sida

politikis, aseve sagareo politikis da, kerZod, aRmosavleT evropis mimarT

warmoebuli politikis amgvari ganusazRvrelobis fonze. gamovyofT

ramdenime Tvalsazriss, romlebic yvelaze mkafiod aris gamoxatuli da

gaaCniaT Sesabamisi faqtobrivi dasabuTeba:

116

a) pirveli Tvalsazrisis Tanaxmad, aSS-is mier evropuli integraciis

xelSewyoba da TviTkmari evropis ganviTareba warmoadgenda mTavar

saSualebas sabWoTa krizisis dasavleTiT gavrcelebis aRsakveTad (Bzezinski,

1991, p10; Nye,1992, p.95; Gaddis, 1991, pp. 116-117). erT-erTi yvelaze Zlieri

argumenti aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisis sasargeblod, albaT aris aSS-is

TaosnobiT `natos~ axali politikuri misiis ganviTareba evropis

transformaciisa da stabilizaciis procesis xelSesawyobad, razec zeviT

gvqonda saubari. davamatebT mxolod, rom `natos~ 1991 w. noemberis romis

samitze, sadac xdeba àxali strategiuli koncefciis~ deklarireba, buSi

pirdapir acxadebs, rom reagireba sabWoTa kavSiris arastabilur

ganviTarebaze unda ganxorcieldes aSS-sa da evropis strategiebis

harmonizaciiTa da SeTanxmebuli moqmedebiT (President Bush, November 7, 1991, US

Department of State Dispatch, November 11, 1991).

aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisis farglebSi SeiZleba aseve davuSvaT, rom

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis periodSi aSS kvlavac agrZelebs e.w.

àRmosavleTis politikis~ kurss, romelic jer kidev vili brandtis

òstpolitikis~ msgavsad, vaSingtonisaTvis TandaTanobiT sul ufro

aucilebeli xdeba (Kissinger, 1994, pp. 733-736). es mtkiceba efuZneba Semdeg

argumentebs: 1. pirvel rigSi, aRniSnuli kursi reagirebda TviT sabWoTa

kavSiris sagareo politikis saxecvlilebaze: -- sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo

politika nakleb ideologizirebuli gaxda; -- Seicvala sabWoTa pozicia

regionalur konfliqtebze. 1 -- gorbaCovma mxari dauWira aRmosavleT

evropaSi Zireul politikur cvlilebebs; 2. vaSingtoni ar cdilobda

aSkarad Careuliyo aRmosavleT evropis mSvidobiani revoluciebis

procesSi; Tumca cnobilia isic, rom buSis administracias SeeZlo

sapirispiro kursis arCevac, raTa sabWoTa kavSirTan erTad

1 rogorc cnobilia, mesame samyaroSi sabWoTa kavSiris wina wlebis wiaRsvlebma ar gaamarTla kremlis molodinebi da axalma sabWoTa politikam gezi aiRo konfliqtebis mogvarebaze koaliciuri mTavrobebis Camoyalibebisa da arCevnebis xelSewyobis gziT.

117

gaekontrolebina aRmosavleT evropaSi mimdinare movlenebi. 1 meore mxriv,

vaSingtoni arc moskovis damarcxebas zeimobda aSkarad. arsebuli

SefasebebiT, vaSingtonis amgvari dabalansebuli politika warmoadgenda

mis yvelaze mniSvnelovan wvlils 1989-1991 wlebis movlenebSi (Mandelbaum,

1991, pp.6-22; Clad, Stone, 1992, pp.196-205). 3. aSS-is TaosnobiT ganxorcielebuli

`natos~ deklaraciebi misi axali politikuri misiis Taobaze, realurad

mimarTuli iyo ara imdenad sabWoTa kavSiridan momavali safrTxis

Sekavebaze, ramdenadac evropis darwmunebaze, raTa mas ar hqonoda `Zalis

vakuumis~ SiSi (White House fact sheets, November 8, 1991; US State Departmenr Dispatch,

November 11, 1991 ).

b) meore Tvalsazrisis Tanaxmad, sabWoTa kavSiris `CarTva~

saerTaSoriso procesebSi warmoadgens aucilebel zomas SesaZlo

saerTaSoriso destabilizaciis asacileblad. 2 am farTo TvalsazrisSi,

Tavis mxriv, SeiZleba ori konkretuli poziciis gamoyofa, romlebic

avseben erTmaneTs. 1. pirveli pozicia yuradRebas amaxvilebs sabWoTa

kavSirTan dialogis warmarTvaze birTvuli omis Tavidan asacileblad

(Allison, Blackwill, 1991, p. 91). am poziciis udao arguments warmoadgens is

garemoeba, rom sabWoTa kavSiris aramSvidobiani gziT daSlis SemTxvevaSi,

uzarmazari birTvuli arsenali SeiZleba centraluri xelisuflebis

kontrolidan gamosuliyo. 3 Tumca, aqve gvinda avRniSnoT, rom sabWoTa

1 1989 w. 28 martis New York Times-is informaciiT, j. beikeri mzad iyo am sakiTxis moskovTan gansaxilvelad. 2 aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisi saTaves iRebs im periodidan, rodesac prezidenti buSi 1989 w. maisSi texasis universiteSi gamosvlisas, pirvelad axasiaTebs aSS-is sabWoTa politikas, rogorc politikas `Sekavebis miRma~ da mogvianebiT, 1989 w. dekembris maltis samitze pirvelad warsdgeba, rogorc reiganis administraciis bolo periodis `aRmosavleTis politikis~ kursis gamgrZelebeli. 3 marTlac, rogorc cnobilia, 1991 w. ivlisis moskovis ukanasknel samitze, gorbaCovi da buSi sabolood xels aweren strategiuli SeiaraRebis Semcirebis xelSekrulebas (START), romelsac aTwliani molaparakebebi uZRoda win. igi 30-40%-iT amcirebda orive qveynis strategiul birTvul SeiaraRebas, iTvaliswinebda molaparakebebis gagrZelebas kvotebis Semdgom Semcirebaze da Sefasebuli iyo, rogorc startegiuli balansis miRwevis da birTvuli konfliqtis gamoricxvis umniSvnelovanesi wanamZRvari. amave dros, 1991 w. seqtemberSi buSi akeTebs gancxadebas administarciis gadawyvetilebis Sesaxeb calmxrivad gaanadguros 3,000 erTeuli axlo-radiusis raketa da mouwodos sabWoTa kavSirs igive nabijis gadadgmisaken. am gadawyvetilebas buSi asabuTebda imiTac, rom rusi

118

kavSirTan `birTvuli TanamSromlobis~ politikas kongressa da

amomrCevlebze orientirebuli, Sidapolitikuri ganzomilebac hqonda da ar

iyo calsaxad gamiznuli moskovis `ganeitralebaze~. 1 2. meore pozicia

yuradRebas amaxvilebs sabWoTa kavSirTan dialogis warmarTvaze

Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebis sferoSi dapirispirebis asacileblad. aRniSnuli

pozicia efuZneba im garemoebas, rom miuxedavad swrafi ekonomikuri

vardnisa, sabWoTa kavSiris Cveulebrivi SeiraRebis sidide da ganlageba

kvlavac uaRresad SemaSfoTebeli iyo aSS-sa da evropeli

mokavSireebisaTvis. 2 Tumca am poziciasTan mimarTebaSic aseve SesaZleblad

migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom aSS-is aRniSnuli politika ar iyo calsaxad

momarTuli sabWoTa kavSiris `CarTvaze~ da axlda bevri gareSe, Tu

Sidapolitikuri aspeqti, romelic TavisTavSive Seicavda winaaRmdegobebs

aRniSnuli politikis gatarebisadmi. 3

demokratebis mier `putCis~ damarcxebis Semdeg, rogorc kremlis, aseve sabWoTa respublikebis liderebi kiTxvis niSnis qveS ayenebdnen uzarmazari birTvuli iaraRis saWiroebas. 1 buSis am politikas uaRresad dadebiTi rezonansi mohyva demokratiul kongresSi, romelic buSs akritikebda `strategiuli Tavdacvis iniciativis~ da B-2 bombaTmSenis Seqmnis programebis gamo. 2 marTlac, aSS dgams qmediT nabijebs am mimarTebiT sabWoTa kavSiris `CarTvisaTvis.~ 1989 w. maisisaTvis, ukve ZiriTadad moxazuli iyo `xelSekruleba evropaSi Cveulebrivi SeiarRebis Sesaxeb~ (CFE). SeiaraRebis kvotebsa da kategoriebze mravalricxovani winaaRmdegobebis daZlevis Semdeg, raSic udao wvlili miuZRviT imJamindel aSS saxelmwifo mdivans j. beikers da sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo saqmeTa ministrs e. SevardnaZes, 1990 w. 19 noembers, parizSi sabolood Sesdga CFE xelSekrulebis xelmowera, romelSic 21 saxelmwifom miiRo monawileoba. 3 kerZoT, aq viTvaliswinebT Semdeg garemoebebs: 1. CFE xelSekrulebis xelmoweris Semdeg, sabWoTa konservatoruli Zalebis mier wamoyenebuli axali pretenziebis sapasuxod, buSma gadawyvita ar moeTxova senatis mier xelSekrulebis ratifikacia, rac Tavis mxriv, sabWoTa kavSirs warmoaCenda, rogorc xelSekrulebis miRebis ZiriTad dabrkolebas. 2. miuxedavad imisa, rom 1991 w. 25 noembers senatma sabolood moaxdina CFE xelSekrulebis ratifikacia, kongresma daitova ukan dasaxevi gza da miiRo damateba, romlis mixedviTac, aSS-is xelSekrulebaSi dasarCenad, saWiro iyo senatis sagangebo rezolucia (im SemTxvevaSi Tu sabWoTa kavSiris romelime respublika uars ityoda misi pirobebis dakmayofilebaze). 3. sabWoTa kavSirTan dialogs Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebis Taobaze sakmaod Zlieri opozicia hyvada TviT aSS-is politikur istebliSmentSic. respublikeli `hardlainerebis~ mtkicebiT, pirvel rigSi, CFE xelSekruleba sabWoTa kavSirs miscemda legalur safuZvels ganelagebina jarebi aRmosavleT evropaSi da, amave dros, gzas gauxsnida saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebisaken, riTac sabWoTa kavSirs agreTve miecemoda SesaZlebloba mieRo sesxebi samxedro programebis dasafinanseblad. meore rigSic, aSS-is SigniT buSis popularulobis zrda sabWoTa kavSirTan urTierTobebis ganviTarebis safuZvelze, advilad SeiZleba gamxdariyo moskovis mxridan manipulirebis

119

g) mesame TvalsazrisiT, saerTaSoriso destabilizaciis gamoricxvis

ZiriTad gzas warmoadgens TviT sabWoTa kavSirSi mimdinare

restruqturizaciis procesebis xelSewyoba (Conressional Quarterly, June 8, 1991;

Allison, Blackwill, 1991, pp. 77-97). aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisi, pirvel rigSi,

efuZneba debulebas, romlis Tanaxmad aSS-sTvis aucielebelia 1970-iani

wlebis daZabulobis Senelebis periodis Secdomebis gaTvaliswineba,

rodesac ormxrivi urTierTobebi mxolod SeiaraRebis kontrolis

mowesrigebaze iyo mimarTuli da droebiTi daTboba maleve Secvala

konfrontaciis axalma safexurma. aRniSnuli Tvalsazrisi aseve emyareba im

farTo gamoxmaurebas, romelic hpova gorbaCovis `glasnostis~ da

demokratizaciis politikam amerikul sazogadoebaSi (Allison, Blackwill, 1991,

pp.92-93). aRniSnul TvalsazrisTan mimarTebaSi SesaZleblad migvaCnia

mtkiceba, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis sistema `operaciul~ doneze mainc

ver anxorcielebda sabWoTa kavSiris restruqturizaciis raime

mniSvnelovan ekonomikur uzrunvelyofas. Cveni argumentacia efuZneba

Semdeg debulebebs:

-- miuxedavad gakeTebuli gancxadebebisa ormxrivi vaWrobis gafarToebis

Sesaxeb, normaluri savaWro urTierTobebis ganviTareba sabWoTa kavSirTan

am periodSi realurad SeuZlebeli iyo, vinaidan kvlavac moqmedi 1974 wlis

savaWro aqtis `jekson-vanikis Sesworeba~ krZalavda sabWoTa kavSirisaTvis

`upiratesi xelewyobis savaWro reJimis monawile saxelmwifos~ (MFN)

statusis miniWebas (Congressional Quarterly, June 8, 1991). garda amisa, arsebobda

rigi ekonomikuri faqtorebisa -- centralizebuli sabWoTa ekonomikuri

sistema, centralizebuli sabWoTa savaWro sistema, arakonvertirebadi

rubli, sabWoTa produqciis arakonkurentunarianoba da sxva -- romlebic

aseve gamoricxavdnen sabWoTa kavSirTan normaluri savaWro urTierTobebis

ganviTarebas (US Department of State Dispatch, August 12, 1991).

sagani. Sesabamisad, amerikuli opozicia miiCnevda, rom `samSvidobo dividendebiT~ gataceba naadrevi iyo da, realurad, aucilebeli iyo sabWoTa kavSirze zewolis kursis SenarCuneba.

120

-- senatis wamyvani demokratebi iTxovdnen, rom aSS-s miebaZa Tavisi

saerTaSoriso konkurentebisaTvis da sagareo daxmarebisTvis ufro metad

komerciuli xasiaTi mieniWebina (Congressional Quarterly, June 2, 1990). 1991 w.

maisSi senati iRebs dadgenilebas sabWoTa kavSirisaTvis 1.5 miliardi aSS

dolaris Rirebulebis sasoflo-sameurneo kreditis gamoyofis Sesaxeb.

Tumca, Tavad rezoluciis iniciatoris, senatis umciresobis lideris bob

doulis TqmiT, krediti realurad scildeba dRis wesrigSi myof sagareo

politikis sakiTxebs da komerciul xasiaTs atarebs (Congressional Quarterly,

June 22, 1991). 1992 w. ukve iwereba, rom udidesi wili dasavleTis 24

miliardiani erToblivi daxmarebisa, romelic egzom farTod iyo

reklamirebuli pirvel rigSi aSS-is mier, warmoadgenda Cveulebriv savaWro

kreditebs, xolo realuri daxmareba aqedan mxolod 2 miliards Seadgenda

(Dybvik, Wireless Files, March 18, 1992).

-- 1991 w. noembrisaTvis, agvistos putCis Semdegac ki, gamoikveTa

orpartiuli opozicia 1992 w. Tavdacvis biujetis muxlisadmi, romelic 292-

miliardiani Tavdacvis biujetidan iTvaliswinebda 1 miliardis gamoyofas

sabWoTa kavSiris humanitaruli daxmarebisa da samxedro industriis

demobilizaciisaTvis. oponentebi acxadebdnen, rom aRniSnuli muxli

daarRvevda miRweul sabiujeto SeTanxmebas, romelic awesebda ra

Tavdacvis, saSinao da sagareo xarjebis limitebs, krZalavda maT Soris

Tanxebis gadanawilebas (Congressional Quarterly, November 9, 1991). Tavdacvis

biujetis humanitaruli miznebisaTvis gamoyenebas uaryofiTad Sexvda

administraciac, romelic amgvar zomas naadrevad miiCnevda (Congressional

Quarterly, August 31, 1991: Congressional Quarterly, Septemebr 7, 1991). sabolood,

kongresma aRniSnuli muxli ganaxevrebuli odenobiT daamtkica (Congressional

Quarterly, November 30, 1991).

-- ufro zogad doneze, aSS-is politikur debatebSi gamudmebiT ismis

kiTxva, Tu ramdenad marTebulia daxmarebis gaweva gorbaCovis

mTavrobisadmi, romelic aSkarad scdeba demokratiuli reformebis

121

Tavdapirvel kurss 1 da, amave dros, arc gadaxdisunariania (Mandelbaum,

1991, pp 6-22).

amgvarad, SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom Sidapolitikuri

faqtorebis gaTvaliswinebiT, aSS-is politikuri istebliSmenti ar aris

mzad gaiRos mniSvnelovani resursebi sabWoTa kavSiris ekonomikuri da

politikuri restruqturizaciis xelSesawyobad, xolo marSalis gegmis

tipis e.w. `didi garigebis~ valdebulebis aReba politikurad

gaumarTleblad aris miCneuli.

viTvaliswinebT ra sabWoTa kavSirisadmi aSS politikuri

istebliSmentis zogad midgomebs da am midgomebis motivaciis ganxilul

Tvalsazrisebsa da Tanmxleb garemoebebs, marTebulad migvaCnia mtkiceba,

rom istebliSmentis `TanamaSromlobis~ parametrze, sabWoTa kavSiris

daSlis sakiTxi saboloo jamSi aisaxeba, rogorc erTiani pozicia,

romelic iTvaliswinebs, maqsimum, swrafvas sabWoTa kavSiris stabiluri

struqturis SesanarCuneblad, da minimum, sabWoTa kavSiris mravalmxrivi

krizisis lokalizebas mis sazRvrebs SigniT.

Cveni Tvalsazrisis argumentaciisas aseve gamovyofT or aspeqts:

1. qronologiurad, Cveni Tvalsazrisi, iTvaliswinebs ra politikuri

istebliSmentis personaliebis individualur gamocdilebas, eyrdnoba buSis

saarCevno kampaniisa da misi prezidentobis pirveli weliwadis analizs,

romelic warmoaCens mis maqsimaluri undoblobas aSS - sabWoTa kavSiris

urTierTobebisa da sabWoTa reformebis mimarT (Obertorter, 1998, pp. 330-332).

aRsaniSnavia isic, rom buSis administarciis wamyvani figurebi, saxelmwifo

mdivani jeims beikeri, mrCeveli erovnuli usafrTxoebis sakiTxebSi brent

skoukrofti da Tavdacvis ministri dik Ceini, iseve rogorc TviTon buSi,

mWidrod TanamSromlobdnen prezident fordis administarciis periodSi,

rodesac `detantis~ politika kvlav daZabulobis eskalaciam Secvala.

1 amgavri argumentebi efuZneba iseT faqtebs, rogoricaa sabWoTa jaris galaSqreba litvaze da latviaze, mxardWeris gagrZeleba avRaneTis, kubis, Crdilo koreis diqtaturebisadmi, samxedro prioritetebis SenarCuneba sabWoTa mrewvelobis ganviTarebaSi da sxva.

122

buSis gundi, reiganis administraciis bolo periodTan SedarebiT,

xasiaTdeboda gacilebiT ufro pragmatuli da frTxili damokidebulebiT

sabWoTa kavSiris mimarT. rogorc cnobilia, buSs erTi weliwadi dasWirda,

raTa misuliyo sabWoTa kavSirTan urTierTobis im zRurblTan, romelic

reiganis meore vadis bolosTvis iyo miRweuli. buSis Semdgomi

qmedebebidan gamomdinare, aseve SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom buSma

Tavisi adminisitraciis bolomde SeianarCuna amgvari frTxili

damokidebuleba sabWoTa kavSirisadmi da naklebad eqvemdebareboda

swrafvas `axali msoflio wesrigis~ zogadi idealebisaken.

2. miuxedavad sabWoTa reformebis aSkara warumateblobisa, sabWoTa

kavSiris arsebobis bolomde buSi acxadebda sabWoTa centraluri

mTavrobis mxardaWeras, rac ewinaaRmdegeboda sabWoTa kavSiris

damoukidebeli respublikebis nebayofilobiT federaciad Tu

konfederaciad transformaciis SesaZleblobas. aqac or aspeqtze

SevCerdebiT:

a) miuxedavad buSis gancxadebebisa, rom vaSingtonis politika ver

daefuZneboda mxolod erT adamians, anu `perestroikis arqiteqtors~

gorbaCovs (Congressional Quarterly, May 5, 1990), migvaCnia, rom administarciis

politika faqtiurad moskovis centraluri mTavrobis, anu gorbaCovis

mxardaWeras warmoadgenda. moviyvanoT ramdenime sagulisxmo garemoeba:

-- cnobilia, rom 1989 w. maltis samitis Semdeg (pirveli sabWoTa-amerikuli

samitisa, roemlic ar emyareboda civi omis periodis aRmosavleT-

dasavleTis dapirispirebis models), `natos~ StabbinaSi gamarTul

preskonferenciaze buSma sajarod dauWira mxari gorbaCovis gancxadebas

imis Taobaze, rom germaniidan jarebis gayvanis `xelovnuri daCqareba~

faqtiurad am procesis Semaferxebeli iqneboda (Oberdorter, 1998, p 458).

migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli gancxadebis daxasiaTeba SesaZlebelia mxolod

rogorc uaRresad frTxili poziciis gamoxatulebisa, romlis mizania

123

maqsimalurad ar gaaRizinos meore mxare da Seuqmnas mas, iseve rogorc

mTel danarCen msoflios, sruli loialurobis STabeWdileba.

-- 1990 w. ivnisis vaSingtonis samitisTvis, administraciisaTvis ukve naTeli

unda yofiliyo, rom gorbaCovis varskvlavi Caesvena. uSualod samitis win,

gorbaCovma udidesi politikuri dartyma ganicada, rodesac boris elcini

ruseTis prezidentad airCies. naTeli iyo, rom amgvar konteqstSi,

gorbaCovs Tavisi Seryeuli mdgomareobis gasaZliereblad, haeriviT

esaWiroeboda vaSingtonis mxridan ekonomikuri daxmarebis aRTqma da

savaWro xelSekrulebis miRweva. miuxedavad kongresis kategoriuli

winaaRmdegobisa, romelsac savaWro xelSekrulebis ganxilvac ki ar surda

manam sanam moskovs ekonomikur blokadaSi hyavda moqceuli litva, buSis

administraciam kvlav gaiziara gorbaCovis pozicia da wavida savaWro

xelSekrulebis xelmoweraze, Tumca im pirobiT, rom prezidenti ar

gaugzavnida xelSekrulebas kongress, sanam sabWoTa kavSiri ar miiRebda

kanonmdeblobas imigraciis Taobaze. litvis sakiTxi arc ki iyo

wamoyenebuli rogorc ratifikaciis piroba, isev da isev gorbaCovis

poziciis gaTvaliswinebiT.

-- sabWoTa kavSiris farTomasStabiani daxmarebisadmi kongresis uaRresad

winaaRmdegobrivi poziciis fonze, buSi kvlav naxulobs saSualebas, raTa

`daajildovos~ gorbaCovi erayis winaaRmdeg TanamSromlobisaTvis.

vaSingtonis SuamavlobiT, saudis arabeTi gamoyofs 4 miliardian kredits

zamTris periodSi sabWoTa kavSiris dasaxmareblad.

-- sabWoTa kavSiris mzardi dezintegraciis fonze, buSi cdilobs kvlav

moaxdinos gorbaCovis mxardaWeris demonstrireba. 1990 w. 24 ianvars buSi

acxadebs, rom igi darwmunebulia imaSi, rom gorbaCovi gauZlebs eTnikur

konfliqts azerbaijanSi da separatisul moZraobas baltiispireTis

respublikebSi (Congressional Quarterly, January 27, 1990). 1991 w. ivlisis bolo

samitis Semdeg, buSi sabWoTa lideris mxardamWeri sityviT gamodis kievSi,

damoukideblobis maZiebeli ukrainuli parlamentis winaSe. igi mouwodebs

damoukideblobisaTvis mebrZol Zalebs ganasxvavon Tavisuflebisa da

124

damoukideblobis cnebebi da aRniSnavs, rom `aSS mxars ar uWers imaT, vinc

Seecdeba Soreuli tirania adgilobrivi despotizmiT Secvalos.~ am sityvam,

romelic `wiwila kievis~ (anu `mfrTxali kievis~) saxeliT aris cnobili,

uaRresad uaryofiTi STabeWdileba datova ukrainis ganmanTavisuflebel

moZraoba `ruxze~ da niSandoblivi iyo sxva respublikebisTvisac (Oberdorter,

1998, p.458). buSis TqmiT, maSin rodesac zogierTebi mouwdebdnen aSS

mTavrobas gaekeTebina arCevani gorbaCovsa da damoukideblobisaTvis

mebrZol liderebs Soris, `realuri arCevani~ Zalzed SezRuduli iyo,

vinaidan aSS SeinarCunebda `maqsimalurad mtkice urTierTobebs prezident

gorbaCovis sabWoTa mTavrobasTan~ (Brown, 1994, p.521)

amave dros, moskovis centraluri mTavrobisadmi deklarirebuli

mxardaWeris fonze, administracia ar iyo mzad eTxova kongresisaTvis

sabWoTa kavSiris maStaburi daxmarebis damtkiceba, iTvaliswinebda ra: --

oponentebis mzard kritikas arareformirebuli sabWoTa kavSiris

mxardaWerisadmi; -- kongresis opozicias sabWoTa kavSirisTvis

mniSvnelovani saxsrebis gamoyofisadmi; -- da aSS-is sabiujeto deficits,

rac mwvave sakiTxad dadgeboda momaval saprezidento arCevnebSi. es kidev

erTxel miuTiTebs imaze, rom administracias xelT ar ewifeboda mieRo

operaciuli donis gadawyvetilebebi sabWoTa kavSiris realuri,

mSvidobiani, sabazro ekonomikisa da demokratiis principebze dafuZnebuli

transformaciis misaRwevad.

b) aRniSnul viTarebaSi, aSS-is poltikuri isetbliSmenti maqsimalurad

mxars uWers sabWoTa respublikebsa da centrs Soris axali sakavSiro

xelSekrulebis gaformebas, romelic sabolood 1991 w. 20 agvistosTvis

daigegma. am periodis analitikur literaturaSi iwereboda, rom

dasavleTis mTavrobebi, aSS-is CaTvliT, marTalia scnobdnen erTa

TviTgamorkvevis uflebas, faqtiurad sabWoTa respublikebis mier am

uflebis gamoyenebis winaaRmdegi iyvnen da mouwodebdnen kidevac moskovs,

Seekavebina respublikebis miwrafebebi suverenitetisadmi (ra Tqma unda,

Zalis gamoyenebis gareSe) (Bialer, 1991, p. 173; Laqueur, 1992, p.108) aSS-sTan

125

mimarTebiT ki xazgasmiT aRiniSneboda, rom absolutamde ayvanili

TviTgamorkvevis ufleba aSS-is konstituciur principebs ewinaaRmdegeboda

da misi ganurCeveli ganxorcieleba sabWoTa kavSiris teritoriaze aseve

ewinaaRmdegeboda aSS-is interesebs. amdenad, nebismieri SeTanxmeba,

romelic misaRebi iqneboda 12 sabWoTa respublikisa da centraluri

mTavrobisaTvis, aseve misaRebi iqneboda aSS-is xelisuflebisTvisac

(Congressional Quarterly, June 16, 1990; Bzezinski, 1991, pp.1-20).

sabWoTa kavSiris nebismieri formiT SenarCunebis miswrafeba

arapirdapiri formiT gamovlinda 19 agvistos putCis dReebSic, romelmac,

rogorc cnobilia, CaSala momdevno dRes dagegmili sakavSiro

xelSekrulebis dadeba. miuxedavad vaSingtonis mier sabWoTa

xelisuflebis arakonstituciuri gziT uzurpaciis dagmobisa, 1991 w. 21

agvistos, Crdiloatlantikuri sabWos Sexvedraze briuselSi, saxelmwifo

mdivani j. beikeri acxadebs, rom aSS ar aRiqvams moskovis putCs, rogorc

konfliqts dasavleTsa da aRmosavleTs Soris da Sesabamisad, sabWoTa

liderebs ar miscems sababs raime gareSe muqaris daSvebisa. amave dros,

aSS kvlavac gaagrZelebs sabWoTa kavSirTan TanamSromlobas SeiaraRebis

kontrolze, miuxedavad imisa, Tu vin iqneba moskovis xelisuflebis

saTaveSi (Secretary Baker, August 21, 1991).

putCis Cavardnis Semdeg, rodesac ukve sruliad naTeli xdeba, rom

sabWoTa kavSiris fragmentacia Seuqcevadi procesia, aSS-is sagareo

politikis sistemis mizani SeinarCunos sabWoTa kavSiri, rogorc erTiani

integrirebuli struqtura, gansakuTrebiT mkafiod gamoixateba. 1991 w. 2

oqtombers kongresSi gamosvlisas, saxelmwifo mdivnis moadgile

ekonomikisa da soflis meurneobis sakiTxebSi robert zoeliki aRniSnavs,

rom ZiriTadi sakiTxi, romelic dRiswesrigSi dgeba aris Tu ramdenad aris

jer kidev SesaZlebeli respublikebis SekavSireba. zoelikis TqmiT, Tu

putCamde centraluri mTavroba muSaobda `erTi-plus-cxra~ SeTanxmebaze

(e.i. gorbaCovi plus cxra respublikis lideri), axla SesaZlebeli iyo

saubari `cxra-plus-erTi~ SeTanxmebaze, rac gulisxmobda imas, rom axla

126

Tavad respublikebi gadawyvetdnen Tu ra zomiT dauTmobdnen isini

xelisuflebas centrs. zoeliki aseve aRniSnavs, rom ar SeiZleba

respublikebis gaigiveba demokratiul reformebTan, vinaidan bevri

respublikis politikuri kursi ar aris garkveuli, xolo zogierTi

lideri centraluri xelisuflebis daSlas erovnuli umciresobebis

Sesaviwroeblad iyenebs. zoeliki aseve xazs usvams axlad damoukidebel

respublikebs Soris integraciuli an koordinaciuli struqturebis Seqmnis

prioritetulobas (Zoellick,, October 2, 1991, US Department of State Dispatch, October 9,

1991).

sabWoTa kavSiris politikuri evoluciis koncefcias efuZneba agreTve

j. beikeris mier Camoyalibebuli aSS - sabWoTa kavSiris urTierTobebis 5

ZiriTadi principi, romelic mouwodebs sabWoTa liderebs demokratiuli

mmarTvelobis, kanonis uzenaesobis da saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebis

dacvisaken. es principebi aseve unda daedos safuZvlad TviT respublikebs

Soris Camoyalibebul urTierTobebs (Secretary Baker, September 4, 1991).

aRniSnul azrs yvelaze mkafiod ayalibebs Tavad buSi, rodesac faqtiurad

saubrobs respublikebis reintegraciis ekonomikur berketebze. buSis

TqmiT, imisaTvis rom im respublikebma, romelTac centrTan kavSiris

SenarCuneba surT, miiRon dasavleTis daxmareba, maT erTmaneTTan unda

gaaformon urTierTobis garkveuli xelSekruleba, raTa dasavleTisaTvis

naTeli iyos, Tu vin aris misi partniori mxare. xolo respublikebma,

romelTac sruli damoukidebloba surT, unda gaarkvion, Tu rogor

apireben isini TavianTi ekonomikuri urTierTobebis warmarTvas ruseTTan,

sabWoTa kavSirTan da dasavleTTan (President Bush, August 26, 1991).

amgvarad, SesaZleblad migvaCnia mtkiceba, rom aSS-is politikuri

istebliSmentis ZiriTad pozicias warmoadgenda sabWoTa kavSiris erTiani,

Tumca TeoriaSi transformirebuli, struqturis SenarCuneba, rac pirvel

rigSi, ganpirobebli iyo, erTi mxriv, regionaluri destabilizaciis

Tavidan acilebis aucileblobiT da, meore mxriv, sabWoTa kavSiris yvelaze

did erTan, ruseTTan urTierTobis SenarCunebis aucileblobiT.

127

istebliSmentis amgvari pozicia, Cvens mier amave dros ganixileba,

rogorc drois mocemuli periodisTvis istebliSmentis `TanamSromlobis~

parametris cvladi, romelic ganapirobebs `saqarTvelos



3.1.2.4 politikuri partiebi

rogorc vuCveneT Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, mocemul

periodSi, romelic xasiaTdeba negatiuri socialur-ekonomikuri

parametrebiT, gamoikveTeba partiebis `ideologiuri dapirispirebis~

parametri, romelic korelaciaSia aRiSnul socialur-ekonomikur

parametrebTan. amave dros, partiaTa daaxloebis tendencia ufro metad

atarebs `saxelisuflebo~ daaxloebis xasiaTs, gamomdinare im saerTo

amocanebidan, romlebic dgeba xelisuflebis orpartiuli Stoebis, an ufro

viwrod, orpartiuli kongresis winaSe. partiaTa `saxelisuflebo~

daaxloeba dadebiT korelaciaSia aRweril saerTaSoriso garemos

parametrebTan, romelTaganac, am SemTxvevaSi, ZiriTadia `komunizmis

damarcxebis~ da `arastabilurobis axali kerebis~ parametrebi.

meTodologiur nawilSi Cven aseve vuCveneT, rom partiaTa urTierTqmedeba

`daaxloebis~ parametrze didad aris ganpirobebuli saerTaSoriso sistemis

parametrebis cvladebis `radikalurobis~ xarisxiT. Cveni modelis Tanaxmad,

saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebis `radikalurobiT~ ganpirobebuli

`saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametri aseve dadebiT korelaciaSia

politikuri istebliSmentis `TanamSromlobis parametrTan.~


Tavisi intensiobiT uaxlovdeba `radikaluri~ cvladis mniSvnelobas da

Sesabamisad, aisaxeba partiaTa `saxelisuflebo~ daaxloebis parametrze.

amave dros, sagulisxmoa, rom aRniSnul parametrze, ukve SesaZlebelia

uSualod saqarTvelos problematikis calke gamokveTa.

128

amgvari asaxvis konkretul Sedegebze msjelobis saSualebas gvaZlevs

kongresis èvropaSi usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~/`helsinkis~

komisiis moxsenebebi da mosmenebi, romlebSic asaxulia kongresis orive

partiisa da orive palatis warmomadgenlebis daskvnebi da romlebic,

pirvel rigSi, niSandoblivia swored rom yofili sabWoTa kavSiris

teritoriaze aSS-is sagareo politikis principebis TvalsazrisiT (Hearing:

U.S. policy Toward the OSCE, Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe. October 10,

2002U).

kongresis èvropaSi usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisiis

moxsenebaSi saqarTvelos 1990 wlis oqtombris pirveli mravalpartiuli

arCevnebis Sesaxeb, warmoCenilia is winaaRmdegobrivi Sidapolitikuri

konteqsti, romelSic mimdinareobda saqarTvelos brZola

damoukideblobisaTvis. 1 moxsenebis ZiriTad Temas warmoadgens

saqarTvelos mier gorbaCovis `sakavSiro xelSekrulebis~ ukugdeba da

sruli damoukideblobis miRwevamde gardamavali periodis gamocxadeba.

èvropaSi usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisia imedovnebs, rom

aRniSnul gardamaval periodSi movlenaTa Semdgomi ganviTareba ukarnaxebs

vaSingtons Tu ra pozicia unda daikavos man saqarTvelos mier sruli

damoukideblobis gamocxadebis SemTxvevaSi. èvropaSi usafrTxoebisa da

TanamSromlobis~ komisiis midgoma aRniSnuli problemisadmi uaRresad

frTxilia, gansakuTrebiT imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom mis wevrebTan

Sexvedrisas, prezidenti gamsaxurdia ganacxadebs saerTaSoriso

Tanamegobrobis mxardaWeris gadamwyvet mniSvnelobaze saqarTvelos mier

1 am konteqstis ZiriTadi aspeqtebia: mwvave konfliqti arCevnebSi gamarjvebul `mrgval magidasa~ da opoziciur èrovnul kongress~ Soris, romlis sisxlian konfliqtSi gadazrdis potenciali ukve imTaviTvea gamokveTili; maRali albaToba imisa, rom moskovi ar dauSvebs saqarTvelos mier Tavisi resursebis srul gakontrolebas, an ucxo qveynebTan damoukidebeli ekonomikuri kavSirebis damyarebas; erovnuli politika, romelic zRudavs erovnul umciresobebs da sisxliani dapirispirebebis potencialis matarebelia; SesaZlebloba imisa, rom moskovi gamoiyenebs aRniSnul eTnikur dapirispirebebs saqarTveloze zewolis gansaxorcieleblad; zviad gamsaxurdias faqtori, romlis pirovnebisa da politikuri prioritetebis ganmsazRvreli roli daxasiaTebulia, rogorc `politikis personalizacia~ saqarTveloSi.

129

sruli damoukideblobis misaRwevad (Report on the October 28, 1990 Supreme Soviet

Elections in Georgia, Commission on Security and Cooperation In Europe, December, 1990, pp.

163-187).

vTvliT, rom zemoxsenebuli dokumenti amavdroulad SeiZleba

CaiTvalos aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis gamosavalze `deklaraciuli~

donis erT-erT Sedegadac, vinaidan igi, miuxedavad Tavisi aRweriTi

xasiaTisa, faqtobrivad warmoadgens komisiis pozicias da iZleva pirdapir

rekomendacias saqarTvelos mimarT aSS-is politikis Taobaze.

Tuki am dokumentes SevadarebT analogiur dokuments azerbaijanis

mimarT, sadac 1990 w. seqtemberSi aseve Catarda pirveli mravalpartiuli

arCevnebi azerbaijanis umaRles sabWoSi, gamoikveTeba is garemoeba, rom

gansxvavebiT saqarTvelosagan, azerbaijanis saboloo pozicia gorbaCovis

`sakavSiro xelSekrulebis~ mimarT sabolood ar aris dafiqsirebuli.

xazgasmulia, rom gamarjvebuli komunisturi partiis lideris aiaz

mutalibovis xelisufleba qveynis pozicias `sakavSiro xelSekrulebis~

mimarT iyenebs rogorc moskovTan vaWrobis berkets azerbaijan-somxeTis

konfliqtTan mimarTebaSi. Tumca, msgavsad saqarTvelos konteqstisa, aSS

politikur istebliSments eZleva rekomendacia gamoiCinos maqsimaluri

sifrTxile azerbaijanTan politikuri urTierTobebis ganviTarebisas

(Report on the September 30, 1990 Supreme Soviet Elections in Azerbaijan, Commission on

Security and Coperation in Europe, 1990, pp. 139-162).

SeSfoTeba saqarTvelos politikuri kursis Taobaze kidev ufro

izrdeba `sakavSiro xelSekrulebis~ referendumTan dakavSirebiT

saqarTvelos kontr-referendumis da 1991 w. aprilSi damoukideblobis

gamocxadebis kvaldakval. kongresis `helsinkis~ komisiis moxsenebaSi,

romelsac aseve miviCnevT aRweriTi tipis `deklaraciuli~ donis Sedegad,

xazgasmulia saqarTvelos Sida `politikuri qaosis~ mdgomareoba.

paralelurad, wamoweulia uaRresad daZabuli eTnikuri urTierTobebi,

sadac gamoikveTeba eTnikur umciresobaTa SeSfoTeba gamsaxurdias

`saqarTvelo qarTvelebisaTvis~ politikis Taobaze. `helsinkis~ komisiis

130

daskvniT, saqarTvelos, rogorc damoukidebeli saxelmwifos, aRiareba

saerTaSoriso sazogadoebriobis mier, damokidebulia saqarTvelos mier im

`fundamentaluri sakiTxebis~ gadaWraze, romlebic Seexeba

`urTierTmimarTebas demokratiasa da wesrigs Soris.~ saqarTvelos unars

droulad gadaWras aRniSnuli sakiTxebi komisa eWviT ekideba (Report of the

Helsinki Commission on the U.S. Congressional Delegation Visit to Vienna, Latvia, Estonia,

Lithuania, Georgia, Armenia and Moscow, September 3-10, pp. 21-31, 1991).

Tuki gavavlebT paralels analogiur moxsenebebTan somxeTis

Taobaze, vnaxavT Tu ramdenad gansxvavebulia aqcentebi am ori respublikis

mimarT ((Report of the Helsinki Commission on the U.S. Congressional Delegation Visit to

Vienna, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Georgia, Armenia and Moscow, September 3-10, pp. 33-37,

1991; Report on the Armenian Referendum on Independence, September 21, 1991, October 1,

1991). kerZod, somxeTis 1991 w. 21 seqtembris damoukideblobis referendumis

Taobaze `evropaSi usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisiis moxsenebaSi

xazgasmulia, rom somxeTi aris erTaderTi respublika, romelic

damoukideblobis damkvidrebas arsebuli sabWoTa kanonmdeblobis Tanaxmad

cdilobs. 1

somxeTTan SepirispirebiT, gorbaCovis 17 martis `sakavSiro

referendumisadmi~ saqarTvelos agresiuli pozicia wamoweulia aseve

komisiis specialur moxsenebaSic. `pravdisa~ da `tasis~ informaciaze

dayrdnobiT, moxsenebaSi aRniSnulia, rom miuxedavad saqarTvelos

xelisuflebis muqarisa, samxreT oseTis da afxazeTis araqarTveli

mosaxleobis umravlesobam monawileoba miiRo referendumSi da dadebiTad

Seafasa axali kavSiris Camoyalibeba, magram saqarTvelos parlamentma

arakanonierad scno da gaauqma 17 martis referendumis Sedegebi.

MmoxsenebaSi aseve Sefasebulia 1991 w. 31 martis saqarTvelos

damoukideblobis `kontr-referendumis~ Sedegebi. aRiniSneba, rom samxreT

1 moxsenebaSi xazgasmulia, rom saqarTvelosa da baltiispireTis respublikebis msgavsad, somxeTma aseve uari ganacxada gorbaCovis referendumSi monawiloebis miRebaze, magram maTgan gansxvavebiT, `somxeTis boikoti efuZneba mis gacxadebul ganzraxvas gamovideas sabWoTa kavSiridan sabWoTa kanonebis Sesabamisad.~

131

oseTma saqarTvelos referendums boikoti gamoucxada. aseve saeWvod aris

miCneuli referendumis Sedegebi afxazeTSi, sadac gamsaxurdias mTavrobis

monacemebis Tanaxmad, mosaxleobis 60%-ma miiRo monawileoba da aqedan 97%-

ma mxari dauWira damoukideblobas. MmoxsenebaSi aRiniSneba, rom es cifrebi

ar eTanxmeba 17 martis referendumis monacemebs, romelTa Tanaxmad, masSi

monawileoba miiRo afxazeTis mosaxleobis 52.4%-ma da kavSiris

SenarCunebas mxari dauWira 98.4%-ma. moxsenebaSi uaryofiTad aris

gaSuqebuli 31 martis referendumis Catarebis mTeli konteqsti, romelsac

araqarTuli mosaxleobisadmi uSualod prezidentisagan momavali muqara

gasdevda xazad (Compendium of reports on the March 17, 1991 Referendum on the Future of

the USSR, April,1991).

amave dros, somxeTis referendumis Catarebamde ramdenime dRiT adre,

`helsinkis~ komisiam kongresSi warmoadgina rezoluciebi, romlebic

mouwodebda aSS-is xelisuflebas mxari daeWira somxeTis

damoukideblobisaken swrafvas (Resolutions on Armenian Independence, October, 1991).

komisiis Sesabamis moxsenebaSi xazgasmulia somxeTis xelmZRavnelobis

`mSvidi mzadyofna~ da unari uzrunvelyos respublikis damoukidebloba

arsebuli sabWoTa kanonmdeblobis sruli dacviT (Report of the Helsinki

Commission on the U.S. Congressional Delegation Visit to Vienna, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania,

Georgia, Armenia, and Moscow, September 3-10, 1991). 1991 w. 16 oqtombris

saprezidento arCevnebSi ter-petrosianis gamarjveba `evropaSi

usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis~ komisiis mier aseve Sefasebulia

rogorc damoukideblobis sakiTxze somxeTis mosaxleobis mxardaWera ter-

petrosianis pragmatuli politikisadmi (Report on the Presidential Elections in

Armenia, Presidential Elections and Independence Referendums in the Baltic States, the Soviet

Union and Successive States, a Compendium of Reports 1991-1992, Commission on Security and

Cooperation in Europe, August 1992, p.82) .

migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli Sefasebebi, romlebic fiqsirdeba Sesabamis

moxsenebebsa da mosmenebSi, amave dros erTiandeba saerTo SefasebaSi

132

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis miarT. es

Sefasebaa: sisxliani dapirispirebebis potencialiT gajerebuli konteqstis

arseboba, romelic eWvqveS ayenebs damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis procesis

demokratiul-samarTlebriv safuZvlebs. amgvari Sefaseba Tavis mxriv

ganapirobebs garkveul orpartiul pozicias, romelic gulisxmobs

politikosTa mxridan raime konkretuli valdebulebebisagan Tavis

Sekavebas.

aRniSnuli saerTo pozicia Cvens mier ganixileba, rogorc partiaTa

`saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametis cvladi, romlic gansazRvravs

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTis brZolis~ sakiTxis aSS-is sagareo

politikis sakiTxad Camoyalibebas.

3.1.3 aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis Sedegebi `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis cvladTan~ mimarTebaSi

amgvarad, `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi,

Sedis ra urTierTqmedebaSi aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis garemos ori

Sris -- saerTaSoriso garemosa da Sidapolitikuri garemos --

parametrebTan da cvladebTan, viTardeba, rogorc aSS-is saagreo politikis

sakiTxi, romelic Tavis mxriv, gardatydeba ra sagareo politikis sistemis

Sesabamis reJimebSi, sabolood yalibdeba, rogorc sistemis gamosavalze

arsebuli Sedegi. sakuTriv rogoria amgvarad Camoyalibebuli sakiTxi?

zemoT ganxiluli urTierTqmedebebis safuZvelze miviCnevT, rom

aRniSnuli sakiTxi dgeba ori aspeqtiT: pirveli, ufro viwro aspeqtiT,

romelic ukavSirdeba uSualod saqarTvelos problematikas, migvaCnia, rom

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaSi saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis

brZolis sakiTxi dgeba, rogorc sakiTxi qveynisa, romelic realurad ar

aris mzad amgvari amocanisTvis, arc politikuri xelmZRvanelobis, arc

samoqalaqo sazogadoebis, arc ekonomikuri infrastruqturis ganviTarebis

TvalsazrisiT. meore, ufro farTo aspeqtiT, romelic ukavSirdeba

zogadad sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis problematikas, migvaCnia, rom

133

saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis sakiTxi dgeba, rogorc

sakiTxi wevri respublikisa, romlis gamoyofac zogadad miuRebelia TviT

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis TvalsazrisiT.

Cveni modelis Tanaxmad, amgvarad formirebuli sakiTxi ukve

gardatydeba sagareo politikis sistemis Sesabamis reJimebSi, romlebic

ganpirobebulni arian da reagirebas axdenen saerTaSoriso Tu

Sidapolitikuri Sreebis im parametrebze da cvladebze, romlebTanac

urTierTqmedebs ganxiluli `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~

cvladi. rogorc vuCveneT Cveni kvlevis meTodologiur nawilSi, es

reJimebia:

1) `evropis gafarToebul arealze stabilurobis da mowesrigebulobis

SenarCuneba.~ aRniSnuli reJimi, rogorc iTqva, reagirebs saerTaSoriso

sistemis Sris `komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametrze da Cvens SemTxvevaSi,

ufro viwrod,- `baltiispireTis respublikebis damoukideblobis,~

`sakavSiro xelSekrulebis,~ da `putCis~ cvladebze, romlebic rogorc

aRvniSneT, erTi mxriv, aknineben, sakuTriv `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis mniSvnelobas da, meore mxriv,

eWvis qveS ayeneben mis TavisTavad demokratiul `Rirebulebas.~ rogorc

iTqva, sistemis gamosavalze, mocemuli reJimi gansazRvravs rogorc

deklaraciuli, aseve operaciuli donis Sedegebs, romelTa Sorisac

umTavresad migvaCnia, erTi mxriv, `natos~ da, meore mxriv, `euTk~-s axali


2) `ganridebis~ reJimi. Cvens konkretul SemTxvevaSi, aRniSnuli reJimi

reagirebs negatiuri Sinaarsis matarebeli mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~ da

sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ parametrebze. sistemis gamosavalze

amgavri reJimi gansazRvravs deklaraciuli da operaciuli donis

`Caurevlobis~ politikis Sedegebs.

3) specialuri interesebis Sesabamisi `viwro operirebis reJimi.~ Cvens

konkretul SemTxvevaSi, aRniSnuli reJimi, reagirebs ra arasamTavrobo

organizaciebis da analitikuri centrebis mxridan politikur

134

istebliSmentze `Zlieri zemoqmedebis~ parametrze, sistemis gamosavalze

xels uwyobs sakmaod xisti `moralisturi~ politikis ganviTarebas.

4) `qmediTi daxmarebis aRmoCenis SezRuduli unari.~ aRniSnuli reJimi

reagirebs politikuri partiebis `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ da

ìdeologiuri dapirispirebis~ parametrebze. Cvens konkretul SemTxvevaSi,

aRniSnuli reJimi, pirvel rigSi, reagirebs negatiuri Sinaarsis matarebel

`saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametrze da sistemis gamosavalze xels

uwyobs deklaraciuli da operaciuli donis `distancirebis,~ an gandgomisa

da Caurevlobis politikis Sedegebs.

5) ìndividualur movlenebze individualur reJimSi reagireba.~ aRniSnuli

`reaqtiuli~ xasiaTis reJimi reagirebs sagareo politikis istebliSmentis

`TanamSromlobisa~ da `gamijnulobis~ parametrebis monacvleobaze. Cvens

konkretul SemTxvevaSi, `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~

cvladi ZiriTadad aisaxeba istebliSmentis samive `Stos~ liderebis

negatiuri Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvis mqone `TanamSromlobis~ parametrze.

aRniSnuli reJimi sistemis gamosavalze ganapirobebs e.w. `status qvos~

politikis deklaraciul da operaciul Sedegebs.

aRsaniSnavia, rom sistemis operirebis bolo oTxi reJimi, romelic

ukavSirdeba Sidapolitikuri Sris ideologiuri struqturis parametrebs,

amave dros, reagirebs Sidapolitikuri Sris socialur-ekonomikuri

struqturis `negatiur~ parametrebzec, romlebic, Tavis mxriv,

gansazRvraven `naklebad eqspansiuri sagareo politikis~ reJims.

aSS-is sagareo politikis zemoxsenebul reJimebSi gardatexis da

Sesabamisi gadawyvetilebebis miRebis procesis gavlis Sedegad,

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxi sistemis gamosaval

etapze iRebs, rogorc deklaraciuli, aseve operaciuli donis, negatiuri

Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvis mqone Sedegis saxes (ix. danarTi 3).

kerZod, aRniSnuli Sedegi ewinaaRmdegeba sabWoTa respublikebis

mimarT deklarirebul e.w. òri-mimarTulebis~ politikas (two-track policy),

romelic senator j. bidenis TqmiT, erTi mxriv, gulisxmobs

135

TanamSromlobas moskovTan SeiaraRebis kontrolisa da sxva saerTaSoriso

mniSvnelobis sakixebze, xolo meore mxriv, iTvaliswinebs pirdapir

urTierTqmedebas respublikebTan demokratiuli ganviTarebis

xelSesawyobad (Biden, J. Hearing before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on European Affairs of

the Committee on Foreign Relations, February 28, 1991, p.19).

aRniSnuli Sedegi ar iTvaliswinebs arsebul rekomendaciebs aSS-is

xelisuflebisadmi daamyaros pirdapiri urTierTobebi da gauwios

pirdapiri daxmareba respublikebs moskovis centralur mTavrobasTan

SeTanxmebis gareSe (Hearing before the Subcommittees on Europe and the Middle East on

Human Rights and international Organizations of the Committee on Foreign Affairs House of

Representatives, March 13, 1991, p.23) .

aRniSnuli Sedegi ugulebelyofs kongresSi warmoTqmul mowodebebs

ganxorcieldes diplomatiuri da ekonomikuri zewola moskovis centralur

xelisuflebaze, respublikebSi damoukideblobis moZraobis winaaRmdeg

represiuli zomebis aRsakveTad.

1990 w. senatis sakomiteto mosmenaze z. bJezinski svamda kiTxvas, Tu

ra unda moemoqmedebina aSS-s, Tuki damoukideblobis moZraobebi iseT

qveynebSi, rogoricaa saqarTvelo, an ukraina winaaRmdegobaSi movidoda

gorbaCovis politikasTan (Bzezinski, July 24, 1990, p.3). rogorc sCans pasuxi am

SekiTxvaze iTvaliswinebda umoqmedebas, rac miuxedavad deklarirebuli

mxardaWerisa demokratiuli procesebisadmi, praqtikulad centraluri

mTavrobis mxardaWeras gulisxmobda.

amave dros, aSS-is amgvari politikis Sedegebi sakmaod

araerTmniSvnelovani aRmoCnda saqarTvelosTvis. erTi mxriv, misi Sida da

gare usafrTxoebis uaRresad myife balansis mdgomareobaSi, saqarTvelo

aRmoCnda klasikuri `usafrTxoebis dilemis~ winaSe, rodesac qveyana,

cdilobs ra sakuTari damoukideblobisa da usafrTxoebis damkvidrebas,

safrTxes uqmnis sxvaTa (am SemTxvevaSi saqarTvelos avtonomiuri

erTeulebis) damoukideblobasa da usafrTxoebas, romlebic Semgom ukve

Tavis mxriv, emuqrebian mis suverenitets. Tumca meore mxriv, arsebuli

136

Sida da gare usafrTxoebis kritikul pirobebSi, saqarTvelo ar misdevs

Zlier saxelmwifosTan e.w. `mitmasnebis~ (bandwagoning) aseve cnobil

politikas, romelsac xSirad axorcieleben susti saxelmwifoebi maTi

usafrTxoebis problemebis pirispir. 1 liberalizmis Teoriis

TvalsazrisiT, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saerTaSoriso asparezze saqarTvelo

ibrZvis im `absoluturi~ ZalauflebisaTvis, romelic mdgomareobs misTvis

sasurveli Sedegis (am SemTxevvaSi damoukideblobis damkvidrebis)

miRwevaSi, da ara im `relatiuri~ ZalauflebisaTvis, romelic mdgomareobs

misi oponentebis daZlevaSi. aRniSnulis fonze, migvaCnia, rom saqarTvelos

magaliTi misi saxelmwifoebriobis ganviTarebis adreul periodSi, e.w.

`hegemonis stabilurobis~ Teoriis sawinaaRmdegod, arRvevs saerTo

stabilurobis im reJims, romlis SenarCunebasac cdilobda aSS evraziis

kontinentze.

3.2 prognozis funqcia

aRwerili mravalfaqtoriani analizis modeli, garkveuli

eqstrapolaciis safuZvelze, amave dros iZleva aSS-is sagareo politikis

sistemaSi saqarTvelos Sidapolitikuri sistemisa da sagareo politikis

orientaciis gansazRvruli cvladebis asaxvis SesaZlo mimarTulebebis

prognozirebis saSualebas. Cvens mier gaanalizebul SemTxvevaSi, modelis

prognozis funqcia ukve bunebrivia Seexeba ara imdenad `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ konkretul sakiTxs, ramdenadac mis droSi

adaptirebul variacias -- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebas,~

romelsac aseve ganvixilavT, rogorc `saqarTvelos suverenitetis

uzrunvelyofis~ farTo parametris cvlads.

am naSromis farglebSi, Cvens amocanas ar warmaodgens amgvari asaxvis

zedmiwevniTi prognozi, Tumca modelis muSaobis ilustraciis mizniT,

1 `mitamasnebis~ politikis Taobaze ix: darCiaSvili, d., pataraia, T. `dabruneba evropaSi? saqarTvelos erovnuli usafrTxoebis zogierTi aspeqti,~ biuleteni, saqarTvelos strategiuli kvlevebisa da ganviTarebis centri, nomeri 44, seqtemberi, 2000, gv. 38-51; rondeli a. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebi, Tbilisis damoukidebeli universiteti, 1996, gv. 122-124.

137

SevecdebiT vuCvenoT aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis is

zogadi tendenciebi, romlebic mosalodneli unda iyos saerTaSoriso

garemos, aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos da aSS-is sagareo politikis

òbieqti~ saxelmwifos, am SemTxvevaSi saqarTvelos, sagareo politikis

orientaciisa da Sidapolitikuri garemos ganviTarebis Sesadar pirobebSi.

kerZod, migvaCnia, rom SedarebiT grZelvadiani periodisaTvis, romlis

ganmavlobaSic:

1. saerTaSoriso garemosaTvis kvlavac damaxasiaTebeli iqneba

`komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametris gagrZelebuli moqmedeba, iseve rogorc

àrastabilurobis axali kerebis~ da àxali safrTxeebis ganviTarebis~

parametrebis moqmedeba (romlebic mWidrod arian dakavSirebuli da

Seadgenen saerTaSoriso garemos `mouwesrogeblobis~, àrastabilurobis~

da ìzolacionizmis~ maxasiaTeblebs);

2. aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos socilur-ekonomikuri

struqturisTvis kvlavac damaxasiaTebeli iqneba ekonomikuri zrdis

SedarebiT neli tempis, biujetis deficitis ganviTarebis, da uaryofiTi

savaWro balansis ganviTarebis parametrebi;

3. aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos ideologiuri struqturisTvis

damaxasiaTebeli parametrebidan, mocemul cvladTan mimarTebaSi, kvlavac

gamoikveTeba politikuri partiebis `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~,

sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~, masmediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis,~

specialuri interesebis `Zlieri zemoqmedebis~ da politikuri

istebliSmentis liderebis `TanamSromlobis~ da liderebsa da

biurokratiul aparats Soris `gamijnulobis~ parametrebi;

4. `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ cvladi,

saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze urTierTqmedebis Sedegad, Tavisi intensivobis

xarisxiT kvlavac miuaxlovdeba `radikalur~ mniSvnelobas; da bolos,

5. saqarTvelos, rogorc òbieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikur da

sagareo politikis orientaciis sistemaSi ar iqneba miRweuli

mniSvnelovani Zvrebi samoqalaqo sazogadoebis, ekonomikuri

infrastruqturis da regionaluri TanamSromlobis ganviTarebaSi;

138

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxi SesaZloa

Camoyalibdes, rogorc aSS-is sagareo politikis sakiTxi, romelSic

kvlavac Semdegi ZiriTadi aspeqtebi iqneba gamokveTili:

-- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis SedarebiTi

daknineba evraziis kontinentze dsT-s myari stabilurobisa da

usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis pirispir;

-- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis asocireba mis

Sidapolitikur da sagareo urTierTobaTa dapirispirebebTan;

-- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis asocireba

politikuri elitis nacionalistur-Sovinistur ganwyobebTan da

qmedebebTan;

-- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis demokratiul

RirebulebaTa eWvqveS dayeneba.

amgvari `pesimisturi scenariT~ formirebuli sakiTxi, aSS-is sagareo

politikis sistemis zemoT aRweril reJimebSi gardatexis Sedegad, sistemis

gamosavalze, savaraudod miiRebs operaciuli da deklaraciuli donis

Sedegis saxes, sadac Semdegi ori mimarTuleba iqneba gamokveTili: 1.

saqarTvelos mravalmxriv saerTaSoriso forumebSi maqsimaluri CarTvis

xelSewyoba (arsebuli sakiTxebis gadaWris `koleqtiuri~ gzebis Ziebis

mizniT); 2. aSS-is mxridan saqarTvelos politikuri procesebSi qmediTi

calmxrivi monawileobis gamoricxva. meore mimarTuleba, romelic

srulebiTac ar gamoricxavs pirvels, Tavis mxriv, SeiZleba moicavdes: --

saqarTvelos demokratiuli ganviTarebisaTvis teqnikuri daxmarebis

Sekvecas; -- saqarTvelos politikur-eTnikuri konfliqtebis mogvarebaSi

saSuamavlo rolis minimizacias; -- saqarvelos saerTaSoriso

urTierTobebis mxardaWeris minimizacias.

bunebrivia, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis garemos zemoT

CamoTvlili parametrebis gansxvavebuli kombinaciebis SemTxvevaSi,

aRniSnuli sakiTxi sxva saxiT dadgeba aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaSi

da mis Sesabamis reJimebSi gardatexis Semdgom sxva Sedegis saxes miiRebs,

romelic, savaraudod, gacilebiT ufro optimisturi iqneba. Tumca,

139

migvaCnia, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis yvelaze `pesimisturi~ scenaris

ganviTarebis SemTxvevaSic, qveynis roli msoflio wesrigis e.w. `hegemonuri~

uzrunvelyofis procesSi ar daknindeba, Tuki misi damoukidebeli politika

kvlavac iqneba mimarTuli liberaluri gagebiT `absoluturi" Zalauflebis

miRwevaze.

bunebrivia, yvela SesaZlo kombinaciebis gaTvla, ar Sedis mocemuli

naSromis miznebSi, Tumca vTvliT, rom SemoTavazebuli modeli iZleva

amgvari analizis SesaZleblobas.

daskvna

Cveni kvlevis miznebis Tanaxmad, naSromSi warmodgenilia sagareo

politikis analizis zogadi meTodologia, romelic efuZneba ra

saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa da saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri procesebis

kvlevaTa urTierTmimarTebas, gansazRvravs saxelmwifos sagareo politikis,

rogorc Ria, dinamiuri sistemis konceptualur da operaciul mxareebs.

konceptualur doneze, sagareo politikis sistema warmodgenilia, rogorc

politikur-ideologiuri urTierTqmedebebis erToblioba, romlis

meSveobiTac xdeba sagareo politikis gamtarebeli saxelmwifos

politikur-ideologiuri Rirebulebebis proecireba im saxelmwifos

sazogadoebaze, romlis mimarTac xorcieldeba sagareo politika. Tumca

Zlieri hegemonisa da susti saxelmwifos urTierTqmedebis SemTxvevaSic ki

(mocemul naSromSi, aSS-sa da saqarTvelos magaliTze), amgvar proecirebas

ara aqvs aucilebeli xasiaTi. operaciul doneze, sagareo poltikis sistema

warmodgenilia, rogorc droiTi da sivrciTi urTierTqmedebebis

erToblioba, romelic funqcionirebs Sesabamis garemoSi da reagirebs am

garemosaTvis damaxasiaTebel Sesabamis parametrebze da maT Semadgenel

cvladebze.

SemuSavebuli meTodologia gvTavazobs sistemis operirebis garemos

e.w. `koncentrul~ models, romlis qvesistemebi -- saerTaSoriso sistema,

sagareo politikis `subieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema da

140

sagareo politikis `obieqti~ saxelmwifos Sidapolitikuri sistema da

sagareo politikis orientacia -- Seadgenen erTmaneTis mimarT

urTierTSeRwevad Sreebs. TiToeuli Sris parametrebi da cvladebi, maTi

politikuri, ekonomikuri da ideologiuri datvirTvis Sesabamisad,

korelaciaSi arian erTmaneTTan da gansazRvraven sagareo politikis

sistemis operirebis zogad reJimebs. mocemuli modeli saSualebas

gvaZlevs gavaanalizoT sagareo politikis konkretuli sakiTxebis

warmoqmnisa da Semdgomi ganviTarebis procesi.

sistemis Sesaval etapze gamoyofilia ori tipis cvladebi: maRali

intensivobis mqone e.w. `radikaluri~ cvladebi, romlebic garkveuli

xarisxiT orientacias ucvlian sistemas da ubiZgeben mas Tvisobrivad

axali Sedegebis miRebisaken; da SedarebiT dabali intensivobis mqone

`liberaluri~ cvladebi, romlebic ar ubiZgeben sistemas axali

Sedegebisaken da mas saSualebas aZleven met-naklebad igive `reJimSi~

gaagrZelos funqcionireba. sistemis gamosaval etapze gamoyofilia

`deklaraciul~ da `operaciul~ SedegTa ori farTo kategoria, romelTa

urTierTmimarTebaTa variaciebi, Tavisi Tanmimdevrulobis xasiaTis

mixedviT, yoveli konkretuli SemTxvevisTvis SeiZleba gansxvavebuli iyos.

sistemis Sesavalsa da gamosavals Soris arsebuli gadawyvetilebebis

miRebis etapze gamokveTilia sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel uwyebaTa

urTierTqmedebis araformalur-funqcionaluri da sagareo politikaze

pasuxismgebeli personaliebis individual-fsiqologiuri faqtorebi,

romlebic, Tavis mxriv, urTierTqmedeben saxelmwifos Sida poltikuri

sistemis cvladebTan.

SemuSavebuli zogadi meTodologia da mis safuZvelze

ganxorcielebuli analizi, amave dros, saSualebas iZleva gaeces dadebiTi

pasuxi saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa disciplinis sam, Cveni azriT,

kardinalur kiTxvas: -- warmoadgens Tu ara saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis

Teoria erTiani socialuri, politikuri, eTikuri da ekonomikuri Teoriis

nawils da amavdroulad moicavs socialuri sinamdvilis Semecnebis yvela

am aRniSnul aspeqts; -- iZleva Tu ara saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis Teoria

141

`normatuli~ Tvalsazrisis ganviTarebis SesaZleblobas, sadac politikis

eTikisa da moralis sakiTxebi iZens iseTive mniSvnelobas, rogorc wminda

racionaluri sakiTxebi; -- cnobs Tu ara saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa

Teoria saxelmwifos Sida politikur Zalebsa da gareSe movlenebs,

rogorc saxelmwifos ganviTarebis Tanabaruflebian faqtorebs.

sagareo politikis analizis zogadi meTodologiis safuZvelze,

naSromSi Camoyalibebulia konkretuli saxelmwifos, aSS-is sagareo

politikis sistemis analizis modeli, romelic sistemis funqcionirebis

zogad principebs warmoaCens konkretul istoriul-geografiul fonze.

mocemul fonze, romelic moicavs civi omis dasrulebisa da uSualod mis

Semdgom periods, rodesac met-naklebi simkveTriT Camoyalibda àxali

msoflio wesrigis~ ganviTarebis konturebi, aSS-is saagreo politikis

sistemis operirebis garemos qvesistemebSi gamoyofilia konkretuli

parametrebi, romlebic, gansazRvraven ra sistemis operirebis zogad

reJimebs, Seadgenen nebismieri calke aRebuli saxelmwifos mimarT aSS-is

sagareo politikis SemuSavebis konteqsts.

a) saerTaSoriso garemos qvesistemaSi, romelic Tavis mxriv

warmodgenilia `mowesrigebuloba-mouwesrigeblobis~, `stabiluroba-

arastabilurobis~ da ìntegracia-izolaciis~ maxasiaTeblebiT,

gamoyofilia Semdegi urTierTdakavSirebuli parametrebi da maT mier

gansazRvruli reJimebi: 1. `komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametri,

saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs `mouwesrigeblobis~ da

àrastabilurobis~ maxasiaTeblebis mixedviT da gansazRvravs sistemis

operirebis zogad reJims, romelic mimarTulia evropis gafarToebul

arealze stabilurobis da mowesrigebulobis SenarCunebisaken sagareo

politikis SedarebiT danawevrebuli miznebisa da amocanebis Sesrulebis

gziT. 2. àrastabilurobis axali kerebis aRmocenebis~ parametri

saerTaSoriso sistemas aseve axasiaTebs `mouwesrigeblobis~ da

àrastabilurobis~ maxasiaTeblebis mixedviT da gansazRvravs sistemis

operirebis zogad reJims, romelic mimarTulia mokavSireTa Ziebasa da

erToblivi Zalisxmevis koordinirebaze usafrTxoebis saerTo problemebis

142

gadasaWrelad. 3. àxali safrTxeebis ganviTarebis~ parametri

saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs ara mxolod da ara imdenad

`mouwesrigeblobisa~ da àrastabilurobis~ mimarTulebiT, ramdenadac

ìntegracia-izolaciis~ wyvili maxasiaTeblis RerZze, integraciis

mimarTulebiT da gansazRvravs sistemis operirebis zogad reJims, romelic

oTx mimarTulebas moicavs: -- SeiaraRebis gauvrceleblobis globaluri

reJimis xelSewyobas; -- regionaluri usafrTxoebis gaZlierebas; --

marginalur saxelmwifoTa mimarT sanqciebis ganxorcielebas; -- aSS-is

sakuTari Tavdacvisunarianobis gaZlierebas. aRniSnuli sami parametri

aSS-is saagreo politikis sistemas aniWebs operirebis kidev erT

umniSvnelovanes reJims, romelic uSualod ukavSirdeba aSS-is sakuTari

usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofas -- globaluri masStabiT demokratiis

ganviTarebis xelSewyobas. 4. àxali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmnis~

parametri saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs ìntegraciisa~ da

àrastabilurobis~ sakmaod myife balansis mdgomareobiT da gansazRvravs

zogad reJims, romelic sagareo politikis ekonomikur aspeqtebzea

fokusirebuli. 5. `saxelmwifoebs Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis~

parametri saerTaSoriso sistemas axasiaTebs `mowesrigebulobis,~

`stabilurobis,~ da ìntegraciis~ maxasiaTeblebiT da gansazRvravs

sistemis operirebis reJims, romelic mimarTulia rogorc globaluri

masStabis usafrTxoebis da ekonomikuri keTildReobis misaRwevad, aseve

sakuTriv, aSS-is usafrTxoebisa da ekonomikuri interesebis dasacavad.

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis Sesavalze gamoyofili

saerTaSoriso sistemis parametrebi (da konkretuli cvladebi,)

gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis erTian zogad reJims,

romelSic gamovyofdiT or urTierTSeRwevad dones: globalur dones da

erovnul dones. globalur doneze, sistemis mizania saerTaSoriso

garemos usafrTxoebis, politikuri stabilurobis da ekonomikuri

keTildReobis uzrunvelyofa; erovnul doneze, sistemis mizania sakuTriv

aSS-is erovnuli usafrTxoebis, politikuri stabilurobis da ekonomikuri

keTildReobis uzrunvelyofa. mocemuli doneebi urTierSeRwevadia da

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sistemis operirebis warmateba erT doneze ganapirobebs mis warmatebas

meore doneze.

b) aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos qvesistemaSi, romelSic cal-calke

ganxilulia socialur-ekonomikuri da ideologiuri struqturebi,

gamoyofili parametrebi da maT mier gansazRvruli reJimebi xasiaTdeba

meti cvalebadobiT, romlis amplitudac, aRebul drois periodSi, moicavs

or fazas.

pirveli faza (1989-1995 w.), romelsac vuwodebT `negatiuri socialur-

ekonomikuri parametrebis~ fazas, xasiaTdeba Semdegi socialur-ekonomikuri

parametrebiT: 1. `ekonomikuri zrdis SedarebiT neli tempi~; 2. `sabiujeto

deficiti~; da 3. `savaWro balansis deficiti~. aRniSnuli parametrebi

moiTxovs ra ekonomikuri resursebis maqsimalur mobilizacias da mkacri

fiskaluri politikis gatarebas, ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis

operirebis reJims, romelic gulisxmobs: -- naklebad eqspansiur sagareo

politikas; da -- sagareo politikis ekonomokuri aspeqtebis wamowevas.

meore faza (1995-2000 w.), romelsac vuwodebT `pozitiuri~ socialur-

ekonomikuri parametrebis fazas, xasiaTdeba Semdegi socialur-ekonomikuri

parametrebiT: 1. `ekonomikis zrdis SedarebiT maRali tempi~; 2. `savaWro

balansis deficiti~; da 3. `biujetis proficiti.~ pirveli ori parametri,

moiTxovs ra aRmavali ekonomikuri ciklis `Serbilebas~ da Sida

resursebis mobilizacias, aseve ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis

operirebis reJims, romelic ZiriTadad gulisxmobs: -- naklebad eqspansiur

sagareo politikas; da -- sagareo politikis ekonomikuri aspeqtebis

wamowevas; xolo `biujetis proficitis~ parametris sapasuxod, romelic

Sida politikur doneze uSvebs naklebad SezRuduli saxelmwifo

fiskaluri politikis gatarebas, sistemis operirebis reJimi gulisxmobs

ufro eqspansiuri sagareo politikis ganxorcielebas.

Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis

SedarebiT mudmivi parametrebi da maTi Semadgeneli cvladebi,

gansazRvraven sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis zogad reJims,

romelSic aseve gamivyofT or urTierTSeRewevad globalur da erovnul

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dones. globalur doneze sistemis mizania globaluri ekonomikuri

stabilurobis xelSewyoba; xolo erovnul doneze -- sakuTriv aSS-is

ekonomikuri interesebis lobireba. aRniSnul doneebze sistemis operirebis

balansi (anu operirebis romeli done aris wamyvani drois garkveul

monakveTze) ganapirobebs sistemis operirebis metad Tu naklebad eqspansiur

xasiaTs, anu im xarisxs, romliTac sruldeba e.w. àmerikuli misia~

msoflio masStabiT.

amave dros, gamokveTilia garkveuli korelacia saerTaSoriso

garemos parametrebsa da Sidapolitikuri garemos socialur-ekonomikuri

paarmetrebs Soris. kerZod, dadebiTi Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvis

korelaciad aris warmodgenili korelacia, erTi mxriv, `komunizmis

damarcxebis,~ àxali ekonomikuri centrebis warmoqmnis~ da `saxelmwifoTa

Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis~ parametrebsa da, meore mxriv, aSS-

is ekonomikuri aRmavlobis `pozitiur~ socialur-ekonomikur paramterebs

Soris. uaryofiTi datvirTvis korealciad aris warmodgenili korelacia,

erTi mxriv, àrastabilurobis axali kerebis warmoqmnis~ da àxali

safrTxeebis ganviTarebis~ parametrebsa da, meore mxriv, aSS-is ekonomikuir

daRmavlobis `negatiur~ socialur-ekonomikur parametrebs Soris. arsebuli

korelacia saerTaSoriso garemos da Sidapolitikuri garemos socalur-

ekonomikuri struqturis parametrebs Soris aisaxeba Sesabamis korelaciaSi

aRniSnuli parametrebiT ganpirobebuli sagareo politikis sistemis

operirebis reJimebs Soris.

Sidapolitikuri garemos ideologiur struqturaSi gamoyofilia

Semdegi wyvili parametrebi: 1. `negatiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri

parametrebis faza xasiaTdeba politikuri partiebis ìdelogiuri

dapirispirebis~ - `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~ parametriT. `pozitiuri~

socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza xasiaTdeba politikuri partiebis

`saxelisuflebo dapirispirebis~ - ìdeologiuri daaxloebis~ parametriT.

aRniSnuli parametrebi, korelaciaSia mocemuli periodis aRweril

socialur-ekonomikur da saerTaSoriso garemos parametrebTan da maTi

Semadgeneli cvaldebis intensiobis xarisxTan da gapirobeben aSS sagareo

145

politikis sistemis operirebis reJims, romelic zogadad zRudavs aSS-is

unars aRmouCinos qmediTi mxardaWera, rogorc daSlis piras mdgari, aseve

ukve calkeul respublikebad daSlil sabWoTa kavSirs. sistemis

gamosavalze miRebuli `deklaraciuli~ Tu òperaciuli~ donis Sedegebi ar

gamoirCeva komplementarulobiT da asustebs erTmaneTis efeqturobas. 2.

`negatiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza xasiaTdeba

erTmaneTTan korelaciaSi myof mediis saerTaSoriso movlenebis `wyvetili

gaSuqebis~ da igive sakiTxebze sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~

parametrebiT. mosaxleobaSi e.w. `gulSematkivrobisagan daqanculobis~

sindromis ganviTarebis fonze, sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~

parametri uaryofiT korelaciaSia politikuri partiebis `saxelisuflebo

daaxloebis~ parametrTan, romelic met-naklebad internacionalisturi

xasiaTisaa. orive parametri amave dros korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso

garemos parametrebTan, romlebic saerTaSoriso garemos warmoadgenen

`mouwesrigeblobis~, àrastabilurobis~ da `dezintegraciis~

maxasiaTeblebiT. .`pozitiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza

xasiaTdeba aseve erTmaneTTan korelaciaSi myofi mediis saerTaSoriso

movlenebis ìntensiuri gaSuqebis~ da sazogadoebrivi azris

`konsolidaciis~ parametrebiT, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, korelaciaSia

saerTaSoriso garemos àxali ekonomikuri centrebis Seqmnisa~ da

`saxelmwifoTa Soris mzardi urTierTdamokidebulebis~ parametrebTan.

sazogadoebrivi azrisa da mediis aqcentebis cvalebadoba, erTi mxriv,

`konsolidirebisa~ da ìntensiuri gaSuqebis~ parametrebis, da meore mxriv,

`gafantulobisa~ da `wyvetili gaSuqebis~ parametrebis mixedviT, -- rac

didwilad gansazRvrulia saerTaSoriso sistemisa da Sida socialur-

ekonomikuri struqturis cvladebis `radikalizmis~ xarisxiT --

ganapirobebs aSS sagareo politikis sistemis operirebas reJimSi, sadac

erTmaneTs enacvlebian e.w. ìnternacionalisturi~ da `ganridebis~ doneebi,

romlebic ar arian erTmaneTTan ùrTierTSevsebis~ damokidebulebaSi. 3.

rogorc `negatiuri,~ aseve `pozitiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis

fazaSi, specialuri interesebis (interesTa jgufebis, arasamTavrobo

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organizaciebis, analitikuri cenrebis) politikur procesebze zemoqmedebis

TvalsazrisiT, moqmedebs `Zlieri/susti zemoqmedebis~ wyvili parametri,

sadac `Zlieri zemoqmedebis~ parametri dadebiT korelaciaSia

sazogadoebrivi azris `gafantulobis~ da mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~

parametrebTan. amave dros, arasamTavrobo organizaciebis da analitikuri

centrebis aqtiurobis xarisxi ZiriTadad korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso

sistemis parametrebis Semadgeneli cvladebis `radikalizmis~ xarisxTan.

specialuri interesebis cvalebadoba aRniSnuli wyvili parametris

mixedviT, sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebas gansazRvravs

sakmaod erTmniSvnelovnad, konkretuli specialuri interesis orientaciis

Sesabamisad. 4. `negatiuri~ socialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza

xasiaTdeba politikuri istebliSmentis sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli

pirveli pirebis `TanamSromlobis~ parametriT, romelic, pirvel rigSi,

korelaciaSia saerTaSoriso sistemis cvladebis `radikalizmis~ xarisxTan.

amave periodSi moqmedebs pirvel pirebsa da qveda rgolis biurokratias

Soris `gamijnulobis~ parametri, romelic nawilobriv korelaciaSia

partiebis `ideologiuri~ dapirispirebis parametrTan. politikuri

istebliSmentis operireba aRniSnuli wyvili parametris mixedviT

ganapirobebs sagareo politikis sistemis operirebas yovel calkeuli

movlenaze individualuri reagirebis reJimSi, romelic moklebulia

sistemurobas. `pozitiuri~ sacialur-ekonomikuri parametrebis faza

xasiaTdeba sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebel pirvel pirebsa da qveda

rgolis biurokratias Soris `TanamSromlobis~ parametrisa da politikuri

istebliSmentis liderebs Soris `gamijnulobis~ parametris moqmdebiT.

aRniSnuli wyvili parametris moqmedeba, Tavis mxriv, korelaciaSia

saerTaSoriso sistemis Sesabamisi parametrebis cvladebis `radikalizmis~

xarisxis SemcirebasTan da politikuri partiebis `ideologiuri~

daaxloebis parametrebTan. aRniSnuli wyvili parametri ganapirobebs

sistemis operirebas reJimSi, romelic xasiaTdeba meti operaciulobis,

Tumca amave dros meryeobis meti xarisxiT.

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ganxiluli parametrebiT ganpirobebuli sagareo politikis sistemis

operirebis gansxvavebuli reJimebi, romlebic sistemis muSaobis dinamikaSi

erTmaneTTan winaaRmdegobaSi modian, an piruku avseben da aZliereben

erTmaneTs, sistemis gamosavalze, yoveli konkretuli `obieqti~

saxelmwifos mimarT, gansazRvraven rogorc politikis zogad farTo kurss,

aseve konkretul operaciul Tu deklaraciul Sedegebs.

vTvliT, rom SemuSavebuli zogadmeTodologiuri aparati scdeba ra

e.w case study-is aRwerilobiT teqnologiebs (Stake, 1995), fokusirebas axdens

im politikur procesebze, maT tipebsa da maT Soris arsebul sistemur

kavSirebze, romlebic safuZvlad edeba da gansazRvravs sagareo politikis

sferos da, Sesabamisad, saSualebas gvaZlevs gavakeToT Teoriuli

ganzogadoebebi sagareo politikis sistemis operirebis Taobaze.

naSromSi aSS-is sagreo politikis sistemis analizis modeli

gamoyenebulia aSS-is sagareo politikis warmosaCenad saqarTvelos mimarT,

saqarTvelos saxelmwifoebriobis ganviTarebis erT-erT yvelaze kritikul

- saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis - periodSi. amave dros

aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis funqcionirebis konkretuli

gamovlinebis analizis safuZvelze naCvenebia SemuSavebuli modelis

qmediToba.

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZola~ ganxilulia, rogorc

aSS saagreo politikis sistemis garemos `obieqti saxelmwifos~ Sris

cvladi. saerTaSoriso garemos Sreze aRniSnuli cvladi, pirvel rigSi,

urTierTqmedebaSi Sedis `komunizmis damarcxebis~ parametrTan da am

parametris farglebSi moqmed `baltiispireTis respublikebis mier

damoukieblobis gamocxadebis~, `centraluri mTavrobis mier axali

sakavSiro xelSekrulebis gaformebis mcdelobis~ da `putCis Cavardnis~

cvladebTan.

aRniSnuli urTierTqmedebis Sedegebi, erTi mxriv, akninebs sakuTriv

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxis mniSvnelobas

sabWoTa kavSiris erTiani struqturis SenarCunebis sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi

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da, meore mxriv, eWvqveS ayenebs mis TavisTavad `Rirebulebas~ WeSmariti

demokratiulobis SuqSi. Sesabamisad, amgvari urTierTqmedebis rogorc

obieqturi aseve subieqturi Sedegebi xels uwyobs `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladis uaryofiT asaxvas sagareo

politikis analizis modelis meore -- aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos

Sreze.

aSS-is Sidapolitikuri garemos Sreze, aRniSnuli cvladi pirvel

rigSi urTierTqmedebaSi Sedis ideologiuri struqturis aRweril

parametrebTan, kerZod: mediis `wyvetili gaSuqebis~, sazogadoebrivi azris

`gafantulobis,~ arasamTavrobo organizaciebis da analitikuri centrebis

`Zlieri zemoqmedebis,~ politikuri partiebis `saxelisuflebo daaxloebis~

da politikuri istebliSmentis sagareo politikaze pasuxismgebeli

liderebis `TanamSromlobis~ parametrebTan. aRniSnuli urTierTqmedebebis

Sedegad, `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ sakiTxi yalibdeba,

rogorc aSS sagareo politikis sistemis sakiTxi, romelic, rogorc

uSualod saqarTvelos, aseve sabWoTa kavSiris porblematikis konteqstSi,

erTi mxriv, eWvqveS ayenebs TviT saqarTvelos mzaobas

damoukideblobisaTvis, xolo meore mxriv, ar cnobs sabWoTa kavSiris

daSlis mizanSewonilobas.

SemuSavebuli modelis Sesabamisad, amgvarad Camoyalibebuli

sakiTxi ukve gardatydeba sagareo politikis sistemis Sesabamis reJimebSi,

romlebic, Tavis mxriv, reagireben saerTaSoriso da Sidapolitikuri

Sreebis im parametrebze da cvladebze, romlebTanac urTierTqmedebs

ganxiluli `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ cvladi. es

reJimebia:

1. èvropis gafarToebul arealze stabiluribis da

mowesrigebulobis SenarCuneba;~ sistemis gamosavalze,

mocemuli reJimi gansazRvravs rogorc `deklaraciuli~, aseve

òperaciuli~ donis Sedegebs, romelTa Sorisac umTavresad

migvaCnia, erTi mxriv, `natos~ da, meore mxriv, èuTk~-s axali


149

2. `ganridebis~ reJimi; sistemis gamosavalze aRniSnuli reJimi

gansazRvravs `deklaraciuli~ da òperaciuli~ donis

`Caurevlobis~ politikis Sedegebs.

3. specialuri interesebis Sesabamisi `viwro operirebis reJimi~;

sistemis gamosavalze aRniSnuli reJimi xels uwyobs xisti

`moralisturi~ politikis ganviTarebas.

4. `qmediTi daxmarebis aRmoCenis SezRuduli unari~; aRniSnuli

reJimi xels uwyobs `deklaraciuli~ da òperaciuli~ donis

`distancirebis~ politikis Sedegebs.

5. ìndividualur movlenebze individualur reJimSi reagireba~;

aRniSnuli reJimi sistemis gamosavalze ganapirobebs `status

qvos~ politikis deklaraciul da operaciul Sedegebs.

aRsaniSnavia, rom sistemis operirebis bolo oTxi reJimi,

Sidapolitikuri Sris ideologiuri struqturis parametrebis kvaldakval,

reagirebs Sidapolitikuri Sris socialur-ekonomikuri struqturis

`negatiur~ parametrebzec, romlebic, Tavis mxriv, gansazRvraven `naklebad

eqspansiuri sagareo politikis~ reJims.

zemoaRniSnul reJimebSi gardatexisa da Sesabamisi gadawyvetilebis

miRebis procesis gavlis Sedegad, `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis

brZolis~ sakiTxi sistemis gamosaval etapze iRebs, rogorc

`deklaraciuli~ aseve òperaciuli~ donis, negatiuri Sinaarsobrivi

datvirTvis matarebeli erTiani Sedegis saxes. aRniSnuli Sedegi: 1.

ewinaaRmdegeba sabWoTa respublikebis mimarT deklarirebul e.w. òri-

mimarTulebis~ politikas; 2. ar iTvaliswinebs xelisuflebisadmi gaweul

rekomendaciebs, raTa man daamyaros pirdapiri urTierTobebi

respublikebTan moskovis centralur mTavrobasTan winaswari SeTanxmebis

gareSe. 3. ugulebelyofs kongresSi gaJRerebul mowodebebs ganxorcieldes

diplomatiuri da ekonomikuri zewola centralur xelisuflebaze,

damoukideblobis maZiebeli respublikebis winaaRmdeg represiebis

aRsakveTad. amgvarad, aRniSnuli Sedegi, saqarTvelos damoukideblobis

150

mxardaWeris pirispir, realurad uzrunvelyofs sabWoTa kavSiris

centraluri mTavrobis mxardaWeras.

Tavis mxriv, aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemis aRniSnuli Sedegebi

skmaod araerTmniSvnelovania saqarTvelosTvis, sadac Sida da gare

usafrTxoebis uaRresad kritikul pirobebSi: 1. saqarTvelo, erTi mxriv,

aRmoCndeba klasikuri `usafrTxoebis dilemis~ winaSe da safrTxes uqmnis

mis avtonomiuri erTeulebs, romlebic Semdgom ukve Tavad emuqrebian mis

damoukideblobasa da usafrTxoebas; 2. xolo, meore mxriv, saqarTvelo ar

misdevs Zlier saxelmwifosTan e.w. `mitmasnebis~ (band-wagoning) aseve cnobil

politikas, romelsac xSirad anxorcieleben susti saxelmwifoebi

analogiur viTarebaSi. liberalizmis Teoriis TvalsazrisiT, SeiZleba

iTqvas, rom saerTaSoriso asparezze saqarTvelo ibrZvis im `absoluturi~

ZalauflebisaTvis, romelic mdgomareobs misTvis umTavresi miznis --

damoukideblobis mopovebis -- miRwevaSi. migvaCnia, rom ganxilul periodSi

saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis faqtori e.w. `hegemonis

stabilurobis~ Teoriis sawinaaRmdegod, arRvevs saerTo stabilurobis im

reJims, romlis SenarCunebasac cdilobs aSS evraziis kontinentze.

SemuSavebuli modelis analitikur-SemecnebiTi funqciis garda,

naSromSi asaxulia modelis prognostuli da Sesabamisi aqtorebisTvis

rekomendaciis gawevis funqciebis ganviTarebis SesaZlebloba.

gaanalizebul SemTxvevaSi, modelis prognozis funqcia Seexeba ara

imdenad `saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis brZolis~ konkretul sakiTxs,

ramdenadac mis droSi adaptirebul variacias -- `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobis damkvidrebas,~ romelsac aseve ganvixilavT, rogorc

`saqarTvelos suverenitetis uzrunvelyofis~ farTo parametris cvlads.

kerZod, SedarebiT grZelvadiani periodisaTvis, romlis

ganmavlobaSic iarsebebs saerTaSoriso sistemis, aSS-is Sida politikuuri

sistemis da saqarTvelos Sidapolitikuri sistemisa da sagareo politikis

orientaciis Sesadari pirobebis Tavmoyris SesaZlebloba, `saqarTvelos

damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxi SesaZloa Camoyalibdes, rogorc

151

aSS-is sagareo politikis sakiTxi, romelSic Semdegi ZiriTadi aspeqti

iqneba gamokveTili: -- `saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~

sakiTxis SedarebiTi daknineba evraziis kontinentze dsT-s myari

stabilurobisa da usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis pirispir; --

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis asocireba mis

Sidapolitikur da sagareo urTierTobaTa dapirispirebebTan; --

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis asocireba

politikuri elitis nacionalistur-Sovinistur ganwyobebTan; --

`saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis~ sakiTxis demokratiul

RirebulebaTa eWvqveS dayeneba.

amgvari `pesimisturi scenariT~ formirebuli sakiTxi, aSS-is sagareo

politikis sistemis zemoT aRweril reJimebSi gardatexis Sedegad, sistemis

gamosavalze, savaraudod miiRebs `operaciuli~ da `deklaraciuli~ donis

Sedegis saxes, sadac Semdegi ori urTierTdakavSirebuli mimarTuleba

iqneba gamokveTili: -- saqarTvelos mravalmxriv saerTaSoriso forumebSi

maqsimaluri CarTvis xelSewyoba (arsebuli sakiTxebis gadaWris

`koleqtiuri~ gzebis Ziebis mizniT); -- aSS-is mxridan saqarTvelos

politikur procesebSi calmxrivi qmediTi monawileobis gamoricxva.

ganxiluli parametrebis gansxvavebuli kombinaciebis SemTxvevaSi,

saqarTvelos damoukideblobis damkvidrebis sakiTxi bunebrivia sxva

formiT Camoyalibdeba aSS-is sagareo politikis sistemaSi da mis Sesabamis

reJimebSi gardatexis Semdgom, savaraudod, ufro pozitiuri Sedegis saxes

miiRebs. Tumca, migvaCnia, rom aSS-is sagareo politikis yvelaze

arasasurveli scenaris ganviTarebis SemTxvevaSic, saqarTvelos roli

msoflio wesrigis e.w. `hegemonuri~ uzrunvelyofis pirobebSi ar

daknindeba, Tuki globaluri demokratizaciis procesSi misi

damoukidebeli politika kvlavac iqneba mimarTuli liberaluri gagebiT

`absoluturi" Zalauflebis miRwevaze.

152

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