TB RD Business Case
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Transcript of TB RD Business Case
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I22
G a a a
HIV/AIDS, a a a a TB a 11
a a . T a a a EDCTP,
a 68 2003 2011. T BMBF
PDP a a 2013 a
2014. A a a a a
a a TB R&D
a . A a a TBVI a a
G a ,
a , a a a
a a TB a R&D.
T A a a a a a
PDP a A AID a . T a
PDP a a a a TB
a . H , a
a PDP a a (a $5
a ) a a a a a a a
TB PDP , a a .
G
I a a , a R&D a
US $3,045 2011, 34 a a
134 a a (P C , 2012). W
a a ,
a a a a
a a a a
. C , a a a a a
a (MNC ) a a
a a . T a
a a a a a
a a a
a . I a a
a
a a a , a TB,
a a
a .
I TB R&D a a a
8.3% 2010 (TAG, 2012). T a
a a (42.5%),
a a (26.8%), a a
(18.8%), a (9.1%) a a a
(0.01%) (TAG, 2012).
D a a a a a
a R&D W H a A
(WHA). A WHO C a E W G R&D (CEWG) a a a a
a a a O a a a
WHO. T O a a a a
a a R&D,
R&D a a a a
a a
. W CEWG a R&D
a
a a a a ,
a a a O a a WHO
a a
a a
.
. .
I a a a a a R&D
US a
a , a a a a a
US a a . M a a R&D
NIH a
a a a . A a
a a a , TB a a 12% a NIH
a a R&D (GHTC, 2012). H ,
a a TB
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I23
a R&D US , a
a a a a
US C a A a , a
PEPFAR a a 2013. M
a , a TB a HIV a R&D
a TB a
a a a a
TB a
HIV a 1 4 a .
E
A E a U ,
a H 2020 EU a a a a a 2014 2020
a a EU M S a a
E a Pa a . H 2020
a a a
a EU. T H 2020
a 2013, a
a a a a 1Ja a 2014.
T E a a D C C a T a
Pa (EDCTP), a a EC a
16 E a C , a a
I a M I a (IMI), a a
a E a C a
E a F a P a a a I a
A a (EFPIA), a a
H 2020. T EDCTP2
a a a
a , ,
a a a a HIV/AIDS, TB,
a a a a a . EDCTP2
a a a a
a a ( a I IV) a a
Sa a a A a, , a a
a , . T
a a EDCTP2
a a a Sa a a A a.
C a A a a TBVI a
a a a a
. T
a . A
a 34 TB a
a 12 a , a a
a 75% a a a
EU , a
a a a
a a a a
a a TB a 15 a . A
, NEWTBVAC, a a
TB a a
EU a , a a TBVI
a Ja a 2014.
B IC
T BRICS a a
TB a R&D a
a a , a a
a a . U a a a
a a , BRICS, B a
a 60% a a MDR
TB a . U Ea
E a a a a a , a a
a 22 a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I24
&D,
a a a .
I Ja a 2013, a S BRICS H a M
M D , M a a TB,
MDR TB a TB/HIV, a a a a a . T M
a a a a
a a a a a
a a
/ a , a a
a a a a
a a a a ,
a a a a a
a ." E a a a a a a
a a
a a .
T a
TB a R&D, a a a
a a . A M K , 2025 a a
a a $30
a a (M K , 2012).
S A a a a a a a
a TB a a a
a a a . W
a a a a , a a
a a a a a , S A a a
a a a BRIC
. D a a S A a
D a S a T a M
H a BRIC a a a
a a a a a a
a a a
.
C a, a a
, a a a
a
a a , a a a a
a TB a R&D . C a
a a a a, a a a
(Wa , 2005). T a a C a a
a a a .
H , C a a , a
a a a a a a
a a a , a , a
a a
a TB a .
A a B & M a
Ga F a a C M S
a T (M ST) a a ,
a a a a
C a a a .
T a US $300
a a
a , a
C a F M a . T C M ST
a US $3.9 2011, a
a
. TB a a
M ST. T a , a
a a a a
a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I25
B IC
B &D
, .
T a a TB a R&D C a,
A a a a a B a a
a a C a a
a , C a Na a B G (CNBG),
, a a a
a TB a C a aa a . A a a a a
Ca S B I . a a
a a , a F a a W a U
a a a a a a
.
A
F a , a a a
a , a B & M a Ga
F a , a a a a
(PRI ) a a a a
a a a . PRI
a a a a
a , a a , a
a a , , a
a a a a
a a a . PRI
a a a
a a a a
G a P .
R a a
a a
a a a a
a a a a a a a a R&D, a
a
a a a a a a . I
a a a a
a a ,
a a
a / a
a a a
a ,
a a a
a a a .
2.7 F a a E S a G
A a a a a
,
E , a a
a a a a , a a
a a
. T a a a a a
a a a a a
, a
a a
(UN, 2012). A , a a a
a , a a
a a a , a a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I26
a a a a a
a a .
T a , E Pa a , a a
a a a a
a
a a (M K ,
2012), a a a a TB a
a a a a
4 7% GDP a a . A C
B G E 2013,
a I a a C a
a 4.8% 3.6% a 6.5% 4.3%, , 2025. O 25
a ,
3.6% a a a a
.
/
. G a TB a a
a TB a
a ,
a a a
M XDR TB,
TB a
a a . La
TB , a US $8 a
a 2013 a 2015 a
, a a a a
a a a R&D a
a TB a
. P a a
a a a a
a a a a a a /
a a a a a
.
I a a
a a , a
a , a
a a a a ,
a a a a a a .
B a a a a R&D
a a a a a a a a
a a a . T a
a a a a
a / a a a
a a a a
(F 6).
W a a a a
a , a a , a
a a a a a a , a a a
a , a a
a a . A M
I , W 10 a T a a 1.6%,
a 4% a
a (M , 2012).
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TB Va ccine Research and De velopment: A Business Case for lnvestment 27
To further explore the use of alternative sourees of
capital to advance the TB vaccine portfolio, a
sophisticated model was developed to assess the
market potential of commercialized TB vaccines and
their corresponding public health impact. This model,
and the implications of these findings, serves to inform
financiers and vaccine developers on innovative ways
to both increase and also blend public and private
funding sourees to support the advancement of the
Global Portfolio.
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I28
3. D B
3.1 O a S a Va
T a a a TB
a a a , a a
a a a
a a
a a . W
a a
a , a a a
a a a a
a a a a a
a a a
a .
S TB a a a a
, A a a a
a a a a a a
a a a a a TB a . A
a a a a a a
a a a ,
a a a a a
a
G a P , a a . C
a , a a a a a
TB a a a a
a a .
S a a a TB a
a 10 20 a a
a a
T a a
a , a
a , , a
a , a
a a a
a a a a a ,
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I29
a a , a , a a a .
O a , a a a a
a a a
a a a a a
a .
3.2 T TB Va Ma a F a a M
W a a A S a (AS) a
KPMG, a a a a
a a a a a a
a TB a : (1) a
a a a a BCGa , a (2) a a a a a
a a
a a a a a . T
TB a R&D a a
: Va a a a a
a a a a ,
a a a . T a a a a G a
P a a a
a . T a a a a a
a a a a
a a a a a
a a a . I a a a G a
P a a a a a a a a a
a a a .
T a a a
a a a a .
T a a a
, a . R
a a a a a
a A 3.
H I
T a a a 183
a a 2020 2050 TB
a HIV , a a
a a , M XDR TB, a a a a
, HIC , BCG a a
a , a a a a a. T
a a a a
a , a a , a
a , a , a a
, TB a a a , a
, a a a
a .
Ba a a, a
a a a a
a a , a a , a a
a a a , a a
a a a a a
/1000 a a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I30
3.3 P Va P
Va a a a a
a a a a . P
a a a
, , , a a
TB a a . T a
TB a
: a a
a a HIC , MIC , a LIC ,
a a a a a a
(F 7); a , a TB
a (COG ) a
a a a
TB a .
W COG a a
a ,
a a ,E. a
a a . T /
, a a a a a a100% a a , a 10 a .
C , a
a E. COG a
a a
R&D. Va a
a a a (F
8).
T a , a
a a , a a
a a a UNICEF a a
E a P a
I a (EPI) 1974. T a a
a / a a
a (MIC , LIC ) a
a a
(HIC ). UNICEF, a a ,
a a , a aa a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I31
3.4 C Va I
W , , a a a
a a TB a .
D a TB a ,
a a a a
a a
a , a a
a a
( . ., HPV, , a a a). T a
, a L L A a , a
a a a , a ,
a a a a
a a .
I C a Ca ,
a a TB a
a 55, a
. I a 6 10,
a a a a a 75
TB a (). T 183
a a , 130 a a
10 a . T a 53 ,
a , a
TB a 10 a a
a a a a
(F 9). T a
a a A 4.
O 55 a , 28 a HIC ,
18 UMIC a LMIC a 7 LIC . T a
a a a
a a . I a a C a a
a a a a a a .
La a , a a
a a
a a a . C a, a
a UMIC, a a
a a
a a a a
. E a a
a LIC , C a a a
a a a a a a a
. I a a
, a a ,
a a a
TB a . Va I a
a a a a LIC .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I32
3.5 S a D a F a
D a a a a a a
a , a a a
a a a a a a .
G a , a a a
a : a a a a
a a 1 3
a a . Ea a
a a a
a a a
a a a a
a a a a
. H , a a a
a a a a
a a a
a .
C a a TB
a a a :
R a , a a , a a a a a a
a a a a
:
o TB a a
a a
o I a , ,
, COG , a a a
o D R&D a a
A a a a a a
TB a . A a 20%
a a a a a TB a
a BCG a 90% a a a
a a , A a a Ba Ca a
C a Ca a a a a
a TB a . I a ,a a a 60% a a , 10 a
a a , 2 , a
10 a a a a a a a
a a a a , a
a a 3 6 a ( a
a 6 a C a
Ca , 2030, a Ba Ca , 2024). I
a a a a , a
a a 3 a a a a
a a , a a
R&D a a
a a a . T
a a a a TB a a
a WHO.
3.6 R M D a a R
T a a a a
a a a a a ,
a a a . I
a a a , a a ,
a TB a a a .
H , a a a a a a
a a a a a
a a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I33
T a a a , a a a 7 a
a a a a 100% a a .
T a a , a 20% a
a a , TB a F
10 a a C a Ca a
300 10 a a
. B 2041 a 2050,
a a , 400
a 2042 a a 600 2050. T a a a ,
a a a 7 a a a a
a 100% a a . I a a C a a
300 a a 2037 a
3 4 a
a a .
T a a a
a a , a ,
TB a a a .F 11 a a a
, a a a
20 30% C a Ca Ba Ca.
I a a a a
a a a a a a a
a a a (F 12).
B 2050, C a Ca ,
TB a a (F 13):
A 4 6 a a , a a
250,000 300,000 a a ;
A 25 30 a a a
a ; a a 1.25 1.5 a a ; I HIV a
TB a a a ; P a a a a a
a a a a a
a a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I34
D 10 a a a ,
a a 50% a
HIC a UMIC , a
a 25% a
a (F
14). D , a
a a a a a a US $12 13
a a a $700 $1 .
T a a a a a
a a a a a a a
a a .
14: 10 B D
T a a a a
HIC a UMIC , a
a a a a a a ,
a , a a a
a a a a a
a a a a
a a . I a , HIC a UMIC
a a a a
a a LIC , a
a a a
a a (F 15).
15: C
2029, /
T a a a a
90% a 10% a a a a . O
a a a a
a a . H , a a UMIC a C a a a
a a a a a
TB a (F 16), a a
a a ,
a a a a .
16: B
(2030 2050)
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I35
T a a a
a a TB R&D a a
BRICS a D
C . I a , a a
a UMIC a LMIC a a
TB, a ,
a a a a
a a TB a . I a
70% a 30% a ,
a a
a a a .
3.7 Ma Va a
Ma a a a a a
a a a a a a a
a a . F a
a a a a a
a a a ( a a
a a a )
a / a a , a a a
, a a a
a a a a a .
T a TB a ,
A a , a 2010
Ba C a Ma a C a L ,
UK. T a a
a a a . T a a BCG
a a a a a a
a a HIV
. T a a a
a a BCG a , a a ( a a )
a a a a . T
a a a
a a a a .
T a a a
. A a 86
a 8 (B a , R a, I a,
C a, S A a, R a a, Ca a a
M a ). T a
M H a (M H)
a , M H a (
a ), M F a
a , a a / a
a a a ,
a a a
a , a a a a a a .
T a a a a
a a . T a
, a a a
a a TB a ,
a a a
a . I a a a ,
a . W
a a
a a a ,
a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I36
R a $4
a . I , a
a . H , a
a a a
a a
. I ,
, a
a a
a a a a
, a a ,
.
A a a a a
3 a . A
, a a
a a a a a a a
a
a a a . F
a a a a a,
a a TB a
2 3 a a a a EU
US.
T a a
a a , a a a
a a TPPS
a a a a a a .
U a a a a
a a a
a a TB a
a a a a
a R&D a .
P a a a a
E a M S a a a
a a a
.
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I37
4. B A
4.1 O D P U , a
G a P
a a a (F 17). T
a a a G a P a a a , a a
a a a , a a a a
a a
(a a a ).
A a
a a a a a
A a a TBVI. T
a a a , a a
a a a , a a a a
a a a a ( . . a
a a a a P a 3
).
17: C D C
C 25+ a & a a a
12 a a a 1.5 a a a a a a
D / P C a 20% S Ra
P a 1 / 2A 33% S Ra P a 2B 33% S Ra
P a 3 85% S Ra ( ) D ( )
D /P C a 2 4
P a 1 / 2A 2 3 a
P a 2B 3 4 a
P a 3 4 5 a
D / P C a ( ): $15 25 M a 8 a
P a 1 / 2A: $6 $12 M a
P a 2B $20 $40 a
P a 3 $115 $170 a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I38
4.2 D P
R a a a
a
. T a
a , a
6 a (F 18).
D / C 1:D a
a a 1 a a a
, a a , a a a
a . A a , US $15
25 a a a
a a a a a a
a a 1 2 a a a a a
. G a G a P ,
a a a
a a 8 a , a
a a a a a
a a a a a .
C 2:P a a 2
a a , GMP a
a a , GLP a a
a a a . Eaa a a a a
/ a a 1 a a 2
a a US $1 2 a a
a .
1 / 2 C :P a 1
a a a a a
a a a a .
P a 1 a a a
a a a ( . ., a ). I P a 2a,
a a a a
a . P a 1/2a a a 3 6 a a
US $6 12 .
2 C : P a 2B a a
a a ( a
a ) a a , a
a a a a a . T a
a a . T a a a 3
4 a a US $20 40 . D
,
a .
3 C :S P a 2B a aa a a ,
a . O P a 3 a a
a a a a . Va
a a . P a 3 a a 4 5 a
a US $115 170 .
C : T a
a TB a a . S
a a
a a a a a a a
a a a TB a a
a a a . O a WHO S a A
G E (SAGE) a
a a a LMIC .
C a a a a : a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I39
, a a a a a
a a , a a
a a a a
a a . T
a a 3 a .
C :C a a
a a a
a . A a ,
a , a , a a a
A a a a , a a
a a a a a a
a a a a a , a
a a , a a
a a a .
C a a a a 1 2 a a
a a
a .
4.3 T C G a P TB Va Ca a
O a a a , a a
US $600 a
a a a a . C ,
a a 25 a a a
a a a , a 12 a a a
a (A 1). T a
a a a a a
( ) BCG, a a a a. ,
a a , a
a a a a a
a RNA DNA
a .
4.4 P D T
G a
TB a a a , a a
/ C aa ,
a a a a
2024. A F 20, a
a a a a
a a a a
11 17 a . F a , a
(14 a ) a Ba Ca a .
T a a a a
F 21. G a
a , a a (
a a a a a a
/ a a
a a ) 2%. O a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I40
a a a / a
a , a a a
a a a a 9%. T
a a 28% a P a 1/2A
a a .
E
,
.
D a a a a
a TB a , a a
a TB a
/ a a 1 a a
a a a a a
a a a a .
T a a , a a ( a )
a a a a a ,
a a a a a aa a a . W
a a
a , a a a a
a TB a
. A a a TBVI a a a
a a a a a a
a a a a
a a a a a .
H , a a , a a a
a a
TB a R&D, a a a a
a a a a a a a G a
P .
T a a
a a , a
a a a IP a
a a a . U a
a a , a
a a a a
a a a
a a a a a a a a a a a
, a
a a a . E
a a a
a
, a a
. F 22 a , a
a a , a a
a a a a a a
a . I
a a , a a
a a a P C a S a 2 a
a a . F 21 a a
a , a a a a
a a , a a a a
.
G a TB a a
a a a a a
, a a
. F a , a a a ,
a a a P a 2B
a a
P a 2B a a P a 3,
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I41
a a
a a , a a a
. O a ,
a P a 2B a a
a a a , a a
a a a
a . I a
a a , a
a M Ca a a a a a
a a a a
a a . P , a M
Ca a a a a a
a aa a a .
22: B
A a F 23, a a
a G a P , a 55%
a a a a
2024 a a a a 80% a a
a a 2030.
23: C A
C
4.5 A a P P D C
A a F 24 , a a
a a a a
a a $15 $25
a a a / a a 1
a . I a a a
a a 8 a a
a a a a . T a
a S a 2 (IND a )
a a $1 $2 a
a a a a a . O
a a a a a ,
a a ,
P a 1/2A a a a
$5 $12 a a a a P a 2B
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I42
a a $20 $40 a
a a . C a a a
a a a . T
a P a 3 a a ,
a a $115 a $170
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a a a a
a a a a a A a a TBVI
a a a a
a a .
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a / a S a 1
$20 a a . I
a a 8
a , a $10 a a a aa a a a
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$10 a P a 1/2A a a ,
$30 a P a 2B a a a
$150 a P a 3 a a . T
a a a a a , a a
P a 3 a .
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a
. A , a
a a a a
a a P a 3 C a T a
G a a ,
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a a a a a $435 ,
a a $800
a a 35% a a
a $1,050 a a 85%
a . T , a
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$600 $800 (F 25).
25: C A
D C
F a , a a a a a
a a
a a ,
a a a a 2029. A
F 26, a a
a a $754 , a
a a a
M Ca a a
F 25. F 26 a a
a P a 3 a a
a P a 3 a a
a a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I43
T a a a a P a
1/2a a 2B a 2014 2019
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a . N a a a
a a a
, a a a
a a a a
a . W a
a a a a a
( . . a a a a ),
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a a
, a a a
a a a P a 2B
a .
26: A D C
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I44
5. D B
5.1 O
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TB
a . P a TB, a a
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a a
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, , a ,
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, a a a
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a , R a a a a a a
a TB a a
(S A a , 2010). A , a
a a US Na a ,
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21 a a a , a
a 700 a a TB
(La a , 2003). T a a a
X/MDR TB a a
a a .
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$13 14 10 a , a a a a
a a a . H , a
, a a
a , a a a a
. T a a a
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a a a a a
a a a a a a a
. I a ,
a
a ( a 2a)
a a a , a a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I45
a a
a a TB a (F 27).
T
a a a
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a a
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a
P a a a / E /D a (
a ) a .
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a a a ( a 2 a 3). T a
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a , a a a
a a . G , , a a
a , 90%
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a a , a
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a a . G a a
a a a a a a a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I46
5.2 P a P a S F
T a a a a a a
a a a a
a a a a
, a a /
(F 28). G a TB a
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) a a a 5% .a. ( a
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)
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28, Ca 1),
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, a / a
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Ca 2 5). H ,
(F 26), a
a a 2019 a a .
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a a
a a a (F 29, 30).
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$754,810 ( a )
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a TB a 2027,$341 , 45%, a
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a P a 2 /3 a ,
a a a EDCTP2, a
a a , a .
(F 28, Ca 2 5).
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I47
28. B B
C 1: 100% D D T a F D ($000): $754,810
D % D 2.5% 7.5.0% $1,098,188 5.0% 11.0% $1,589,784
C 2: 100% 2 , 100% D 2 & 3 T a F D ($000): $413, 810
D % D 2.5% 4.0% $575,098 5.0% 5.5% $798,409
C 3: 100% 2 , 80% / 20% D 2 & 3 T a F D ($000): $82,762
D % D
2.5% .8% $115,023 5.0% 1.1% $159,577
C 4: 100% 2 , 80% / 20% 2 & 3
5.0% 17.2% 10.0% 22.9%
C 5: 100% 2 , 80% / 20% D 3 T a F D ($000): $58,333
D % D 2.5% .6% $77,069
5.0% .7% $101,850
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I48
30. 5 ($ )
2014 2018 2019 2023 2023 2027 D P a 2a $211 $95 $50 P a 2 /3 $90 $160 $165 P a a (50%) $45 $80 $82 .5 F a $45 $80 $82 .5
$301 $255 $215 a / a , ,
a , ,
5.3 U P a P M a L a P a S I
P a a R&D
a a a
a a a a ,
a a a ,
a a . P
a a ,
a a a a
a . I a , a a
a a a a a
(K , 1999).
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a , a
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a a a a
a a a R&D
a a
.
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a a a
a (K , 1999). I
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T a a a a R&D
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a a a a
. I a TB,
a a a
a a X/MDR TB.
T a a a a a
a a a a a , a
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a a a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I49
a
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A a , a
M S a a
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a a a a
a a a a a a
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5.4 P Ma a
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IP a a a a a a , a a a
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a , a a a a a a
a a a a
, a a a
a a a
a TB a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I50
31. B
T a ,
a a
, a a a a
a , a
a a TB R&D
, a a a a .
T a , a a BCG,
a a a a . , a
a , a , a
a a , a a a
RNA DNA a (A
1). T a , a a a
a a a a a a a , a , a a
a a .
E a , a a a
a a , a a
a a TB a a a
a a (Ba a , 2012).
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a a
a a a a ,
a a a a a a a
a a a a a a . S
a , a a a a
a a a
a a a ; a
a a ,
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a a , a a
a , a a , a a a
a a a , a
a (Ba a , 2012). A a
a a a A 5a.
T a a a (TPP)
a a . T TPP
a a a a ,
a . A a a TBVI
, a TB a a a , a a a a
a a a a a a a a
a a . M a a
, a a a ,
a a a a a
a a a a a a
a TB (T , 2011). F
a , a /a TPP
.
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a a a a a
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a a a a a a
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a a a a
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a a a a a a
a a a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I51
P a a a a
a a a a
, a a
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a GO/NO GO a a a
, a a a a
a a a a a a
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a a a a
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), a a ,
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a a a a a a
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, a a
, a a a a. I
a , a a a a
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a
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.
C B
:
T G a P a a a
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a a a TB a .
Ba a a a a a a
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a .
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a a a UK a D
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a EC. H ,
TBVI a a a 2014. I a
EC a , H 2020,
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I52
TB a
TBVI a . G a
a 5 a
TB a R&D, EC a a
a a a , a a a a
TB a a a .
R a a a
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TBVI, a a a a
a TB a . T a a a
a a a a a a
a ( a G a S K [GSK], M ,N a , Sa Pa , a P ) a a
a a . T a a 80%
a a ("S a , 2003).
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a a a (Ca a ,
2008). T a a a a
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R&D a a a , a a a a a a a a
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Ma TB a a a a
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:
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a a a a .
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I53
A F 1999, A a a
a a a
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, a a , a a a a
, a a a a . A a
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a (Ta ,
2013), a a a 6 a a
a . A a a a a 160, R , Ma a , Ca
T , S A a a B , C a.
I 2012, B & M a Ga F a a a
A a $220 5 a a a
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, a a a a
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; a (4) a
a TB a R&D a .
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Va A C (VAC) a a
a a a a a . T
VAC TB
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TBVI a E
F a a a
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EC. T a a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I54
a a a
a , . ., TBVI a L a , N a , a
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a a 34 E a a a
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a (PDT & CDT), a a a a
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D a a A a a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I55
6. C
I a TB a a a a
a a a a a , a a a a
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a :
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a a a HIC/UMIC . D
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a .
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A a a a
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I a
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.
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I56
W C
A A a F a a a a TB a (2010)B C C . I a.
A , Y. a (2012, A ) "W $30 a a ." . R
:// . a . /W _ _30_ _ a _G _ _ _ _ _ a_3002
Ba , L. a . (2012) "Ra a a a a a TB aa a . ". 92 S 1:S25 9.
Ba , R. . a. (2013) "S a a a a a : a a a a "I B D .R
:// a . a . . / /a5829970064042a 6 12023 514 4 .B a , T. R. (2009) "A a a a : a a "
E . 18 (5): 343 356.B , C. . (2003) "Ea a a a ".
E 105 , . 401 418.B a ., A. (2006) "T a a a a
." H . 100 (3), . 191 199.B a , M. J. & T , J (2012, Ma ) "T a : a a a ."
. 92: S6 S13.Ca a , A.L. a S a J.L. (2008) "E ." ,5 . SA. P , W.A. O , a P.A. O , .
P a a: E ."CDC: P a a a a a
" (2009) R :// . . / / / / 5803a1.C , V. a . (2012) "P a a
a " C B . R . . a a . / a /
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a . .F a , J. (2010). Ta TB a HIV : a a a.G : G C
AID .R :// . a a . /CMSPa /G F .a ? =aa 44 9 9a9 4366 9 4 89 4775 798
"G a H a T C a 2012 P R " (2012) R :// . a . / /Sa a a a .
K a , C.K. a E , J.D. (A 2011) "HIV a T : a a a .C . 24:351 376.
K , M. (1999, O ) A a a : Ra a a a .H B I . R
:// . . a a . /a / / / a / . .La a , J.E. a Ma a , M.A. (2003) "T a a a U.S. Na a
C a Ma a a a , 1998." . 168:523 7.La a a a , R., a . (2007, A ) "E ." B . R
:// . a . / /WDSC S /WDSP/IB/2007/08/01/000158349_20070801103922/R /PDF
"L H a P a , 2011 a a a TB" (2011) R
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I57
:// . . . . / a /PMH0046787/"M I I a F a G a H a R&D" (2012) R
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2012.
P a A., a . (2013) "W a a a a a a SA a?" .R
:// . . /a / %3A %2F10.1371%2F a . .0054587"S A " (2003, Ma ). E . R :// . . / /1801137S , C. a Fa , A. (2012) "T a a a TB a : T
a ." . R :// . . / /a / /S1472979212700033S a , P. (2012, Ma ) "P a a a ."
, 92: S4 S5."S TB Pa : HIV/AIDS S A a" ( . .). B .R
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a a BCG: a a , a P a 2 a ." . R . a . / a / a /a /PIIS0140 6736(13)60177 4/a aT , C., a . (2011, Ja a ) "C a : a
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a _R .Wa , J. (2005) "S a a a a ."G C (12), 98 99."WHO a 2012" (2012) H .R
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Z a , Y. a . (2012, J ) "Na a a C a."E . 366: 2161 2170.Z a, A. a . (2013) "T ."E . 368: 745 755.
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I58
A 1: G a TB Va P
Ca a R a /S G a
M72/AS01E GSK B a /A a EU/MNC
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. A L C a
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RUTI P J a Ca a S a H1 IC31/CAF01 SSI D a
H56 IC31 SSI D a
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D
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I a
I a MVA85A O UK
a A 4 A a USA
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L /A a F a /USA
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C A 68 A 85A O UK
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D /
P C a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I59
C A 63 a a O a /A a I a
A a MTB a a (3) Pa I Pa F a
H a B PIV TB a NIH USA
R a La U C a IKE E U USA
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a BCG PGL LAM P a L N a
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55 H I C
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C a, H K SAR I a O a U K
C a, Ma a SAR I a P a U S a A a( P R a G a )
C a a I a P a US V I a
C I a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I60
A a a E Ma a a Sa T a P
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C Ja a a Pa a a U a
C a J a Pa a N G a U a
C a Ka a a Pa a a U a
C K a P Va a
C a R a La , PDR P V a
C 'I La a R a a V a
C a L a R a Y
D L Sa L a Za a
94 M C
D a R L a a Sa V a
G a E a Ma a Sa a
34 L C
A a a C , D . R . K a R a a
Ba a E a L a S a L
B E a Ma a a a S a a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I61
B a Fa
B
Ca a
Ga a Ma a
G a Ma
G a B a M a
Ta a
Ta a a
T
C a A a R Ha M a a U a a
C a K a N a Z a
K a, DPR N
[Ba 2011 W Ba
C a a ]
A a a G a B a Pa a
Ba a Ha Pa a N G a
B I a R a a
B a Fa K a S T P
B K a, DPR S a
Ca a K R S a L
Ca La PDR S I a
C a A a R L S a a
C a L a R S a
C Ma a a a S S a
C , D R Ma a Ta a
C 'I Ma Ta a a
D Ma a a T
Ea T M a U a a
E a M a a U a
E a N a V Na
Ga a N a a a Y
G a a N Za a
G a N a Z a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I62
A 3: S S Ma A S a Da a H
P a
T M a Ba a 2011, T I a a I F S a S ; a a , a , a a a a a a a
Da a a a a ( V a ) O
a 06 D 2011 OECD.S a
Da a V a a 13 D 2011 OECD.S a ; a 10% a a
a a a ; a
a a
WHO G a A a a 30 N 2011; a a
T a UNWTO ; a 10% a a HDB
, 90% a (A a ); a (EMR) E a a G a (
Ma a & H K , C a 99% a a a a C a
"H R P a _HIC_2010%_16D 2011
"WHO TB a a_O %_S T _7D 2011" a "WHO TB a a_O %_H R
P a _HIC_19D 2011"
C a a a a: H a a a ://WHO. / a _ / /
a / / a 3.
HIV a a: C HIV a _L &M _12D 2011 & C HIV
a _H _28D 2011
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I63
A 4: Y a C TB Va I
C
C A / A a a 2040 2043 A a a 2034 2037 A a 2039 2042 A a 2035 2038 A a 2040 2043 A a 2039 2042 A a 2040 2043 A a a 2030 2033 A a 2031 2034 A a a 2040 2043 Ba a a 2042 2045 Ba a 2035 2038 Ba a 2031 2034 Ba a 2042 2045 B a 2034 2037 B 2034 2037 B B 2033 2036 B a 2035 2038 B a 2042 2045 B a a H a 2039 2042 B a a 2032 2035 B a 2032 2035 B 2035 2038 B a a 2036 2039 B a Fa 2036 2039 B 2034 2037 Ca a 2032 2035 Ca 2033 2036 Ca a a 2032 2035 Ca V C a A a R 2036 2039 C a 2036 2039 C a I a C 2039 2042 C a 2032 2035 C a, H K SAR 2032 2035 C a, Ma a SAR 2032 2035 C a 2042 2045 C C 2035 2038 C , D . R . 2035 2038 C a R a 2040 2043 C 'I 2036 2039 C a a 2031 2034 C a 2041 2044 C 2038 2041 C R 2034 2037 D a 2033 2036 D 2036 2039 D a R 2030 2033 E a 2042 2045
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I64
C
C A / E 2036 2039 E Sa a 2039 2042
E a a G a 2031 2034 E a 2038 2041 E a 2032 2035 E a 2039 2042 F 2041 2044 F a 2031 2034 F a 2031 2034 F G a a F P a 2031 2034 Ga 2031 2034 Ga a 2033 2036 G a 2039 2042 G a 2035 2038 G a a 2031 2034 G 2040 2043 G a a 2041 2044 G a G a 2033 2036 G a a a 2037 2040 G a 2037 2040 G a B a 2038 2041 G a a 2040 2043 Ha 2038 2041 H a 2032 2035 H a 2032 2035 I a 2037 2040 I a 2036 2039 I a 2042 2045 I a 2037 2040 I a 2038 2041 I a 2033 2036 I a 2035 2038 I a 2035 2038 Ja a a 2042 2045 Ja a 2032 2035 J a 2041 2044 Ka a a 2035 2038 K a 2035 2038 K a 2041 2044 K a, DPR 2038 2041 K a, R . 2037 2040 K a 2035 2038 K a 2035 2038 La , PDR 2038 2041 La a 2041 2044 L a 2041 2044 L 2038 2041 L a 2039 2042 L a A a Ja a a L a a 2040 2043 L 2032 2035 Ma a 2042 2045 Ma a a a 2037 2040
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I65
C
C A / Ma a 2037 2040 Ma a a 2033 2036
Ma 2042 2045 Ma 2039 2042 Ma a 2033 2036 Ma Ma a a 2039 2042 Ma 2042 2045 Ma M 2039 2042 M a 2040 2043 M a 2039 2042 M a 2040 2043 M 2042 2045 M 2037 2040 M a 2032 2035 M a a 2040 2043 Na a 2034 2037 N a 2037 2040 N a 2034 2037 N a A (C a a , S Maa ) 2037 2040 N Ca a 2034 2037 N Z a a 2033 2036 N a a a 2038 2041 N 2040 2043 N a 2040 2043 N a 2033 2036 O Pa a T (W Ba & Ga a) O a 2037 2040 Pa a 2040 2043 Pa a a 2042 2045 Pa a N G a 2033 2036 Pa a a 2040 2043 P 2040 2043 P 2033 2036 P a 2035 2038 P a 2040 2043 P R 2033 2036 Qa a 2037 2040 R R a a 2038 2041 R a 2034 2037 R a a 2036 2039 Sa L a 2042 2045 Sa V a G a 2042 2045 Sa a 2042 2045 Sa T a P 2042 2045 Sa A a a 2036 2039 S a 2035 2038 S a 2041 2044 S a L 2037 2040 S a 2030 2033 S a a 2037 2040 S a 2038 2041 S I a 2041 2044
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I66
C
C A / S a a 2040 2043 S A a 2030 2033
S a 2040 2043 S La a 2038 2041 S a 2040 2043 S a S a a 2033 2036 S 2034 2037 S a 2034 2037 S a 2041 2044 Ta a 2037 2040 Ta a a 2034 2037 T a a 2036 2039 T L T 2036 2039 T a 2042 2045 T a a T a 2035 2038 T a 2041 2044 T 2034 2037 T a 2041 2044 U a a 2036 2039 U a 2038 2041 U A a E a 2035 2038 U K 2030 2033 U S a A a 2031 2034 U S a V I a 2036 2039 U a 2041 2044 U a 2036 2039 Va a 2042 2045 V a 2038 2041 V Na 2036 2039 W Sa a a Y 2040 2043 Za a 2040 2043 Z a 2040 2043
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I67
A 5: Ga S a
P a Ca a a a a a a a
a a a Ga S a . A a a .
Ga 1 Ga 2.1 Ga 2.2 Ga 3.1 Ga 3.2 Ga 4
P
T
a
a a
R&D(D )
a P C
a a
T
a
a a
PD
a
a P a I
Sa
S
T
a
a a, a
IND
a
a
a a /
Ga 2.1
T a
a a
P a I
a a
P a IIa
Sa /I
S
T a
a a
P a II
a a
P a IIB P C,
Sa /I
S
T
a
aa
P C
,
a
P a III
F a Ga a , a a a
a a a a a a a a a a
a a .
A Ga a a a a a a , a a a a
a a a , a
F a , Pa a a P C a a a a Q a a a
a a a a a a a a
a a a , a a a a a a
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TB Va R a a D : A B Ca I68
A 5a: D a Ga S a
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