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Tasks 5.2 and 6.3: The Influence of WindsTasks 5.2 and 6.3: The Influence of Windsand Vertical Mixing on PMand Vertical Mixing on PM2.5 2.5 ConcentrationsConcentrations

Presented by:Presented by:Mark LillyMark Lilly

Clinton MacDonaldClinton MacDonaldPaul RobertsPaul Roberts

Heather ArkinsonHeather ArkinsonSonoma Technology, Inc.Sonoma Technology, Inc.

Petaluma, CAPetaluma, CA

Don Don LehrmanLehrmanTechnical and Business Systems, Inc.Technical and Business Systems, Inc.

Santa Rosa, CASanta Rosa, CA

Presented to:Presented to:CRPAQS Data Analysis WorkshopCRPAQS Data Analysis Workshop

Sacramento, CASacramento, CAMarch 9-10, 2004March 9-10, 2004

902329-2504

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Task 5.2: Evaluation of TransportTask 5.2: Evaluation of Transport•• WindsWinds

–– Transport pathwaysTransport pathways–– Flows: nocturnal jet, eddy, terrainFlows: nocturnal jet, eddy, terrain–– Flux planesFlux planes–– Advection vs. diffusionAdvection vs. diffusion

•• Mixing heightsMixing heights•• Synoptic weatherSynoptic weather

–– WindsWinds–– MixingMixing

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Task 6.3: Transport and the RegionalTask 6.3: Transport and the RegionalNature of Secondary PMNature of Secondary PM

•• Causes of the regional nature of PMCauses of the regional nature of PM–– TransportTransport–– DiffusionDiffusion–– Emission source locationEmission source location–– Aloft Aloft NONOxx emissions emissions

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ApproachApproach•• CALMET modelingCALMET modeling

–– Wind fieldsWind fields–– TrajectoriesTrajectories–– Dispersion (CALPUFF)Dispersion (CALPUFF)

•• Data AnalysisData Analysis–– Profiler windsProfiler winds–– Mixing heightsMixing heights–– PM dataPM data

•• Case StudiesCase Studies–– November 17 through 26, 2000November 17 through 26, 2000–– December 13 through 20, 2000December 13 through 20, 2000–– December 24 through 30, 2000December 24 through 30, 2000–– January 2 through 9, 2001January 2 through 9, 2001

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CALMET – BackgroundCALMET – Background

•• What is CALMET?What is CALMET?–– A meteorological model that includes a diagnosticA meteorological model that includes a diagnostic

wind field generator containing objective analysis andwind field generator containing objective analysis andparameterized treatments of slope flows, parameterized treatments of slope flows, kinematickinematicterrain effects, terrain-blocking effects, a divergenceterrain effects, terrain-blocking effects, a divergenceminimization procedure, and a micro-meteorologicalminimization procedure, and a micro-meteorologicalmodel for overland and model for overland and overwateroverwater boundary layers boundary layers

•• Why use CALMET?Why use CALMET?–– To resolve To resolve mesoscalemesoscale and local-scale meteorological and local-scale meteorological

phenomena by blending observational data withphenomena by blending observational data withsynoptic-scale model results and analysessynoptic-scale model results and analyses

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CALMET – Data SourcesCALMET – Data Sources•• Radar wind profiler wind and RASS virtualRadar wind profiler wind and RASS virtual

temperature data from 24+ sites, quality-temperature data from 24+ sites, quality-controlled to Level 2controlled to Level 2

•• RawinsondeRawinsonde data from 5 sites data from 5 sites•• Surface observations from 359 sitesSurface observations from 359 sites•• EtaEta Data Assimilation System (EDAS) Data Assimilation System (EDAS)

–– Regional-scale model dataRegional-scale model data–– Nudged by observationsNudged by observations

•• 0.9-km resolution terrain data0.9-km resolution terrain data

•• 30-m resolution land use data30-m resolution land use data

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CALMET – Data sitesCALMET – Data sitesUpper-air Surface

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CALMET CALMET –– Grid Resolution Grid Resolution

•• 20 vertical layers with20 vertical layers withinterfaces at 0, 20, 50,interfaces at 0, 20, 50,100, 200, 300, 400, 500,100, 200, 300, 400, 500,600, 700, 800, 900, 1000,600, 700, 800, 900, 1000,1200, 1400, 1600, 1800,1200, 1400, 1600, 1800,2000, 2250, 2500,2000, 2250, 2500,and 2750 m and 2750 m aglagl

•• Horizontal resolution of 4 kmHorizontal resolution of 4 km

•• Modeling grid 273 x 273 (1092 x 1092 km)Modeling grid 273 x 273 (1092 x 1092 km)

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CALMETCALMET –– Method MethodNormal

First guess wind at all grid pointscreated using data at only one

location and height

Blend EDAS and observationusing weighting factors

Smooth

Intermediate winds

Terrain effects

First guess

Blend with observations and grid

Smooth (optional)

Final winds

CRPAQS

Terrain effects

Blend with observations and grid

Smooth (optional)

Final winds

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Data Analysis Data Analysis –– Case Study: Case Study:Focus on December 22-31, 2000Focus on December 22-31, 2000

•• Synoptic WeatherSynoptic Weather•• Mixing DepthMixing Depth

–– PeakPeak–– Diurnal cycleDiurnal cycle–– Spatial distributionSpatial distribution

•• WindsWinds–– EddiesEddies–– JetsJets–– Terrain flowsTerrain flows

•• TransportTransport–– Distance, direction, speedDistance, direction, speed

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Mixing Depth Mixing Depth –– Definition Definition

RL = Residual LayerCBL = Convective Boundary LayerNBL = Nocturnal Boundary LayerMBL = Marine Boundary Layer

Midnight

NBL NBL

CBL RLRL

Subsidence Inversion

Sunrise Sunset

Hei

ght

MBL

= Surface-based vertical mixing

= Surface-based mixing depth

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Mixing Depth – Mixing Depth – Time Continuity Analysis

Estimated Mixing

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Mixing Depth Mixing Depth –– December 22-31, 2000 December 22-31, 2000Hourly Mixing Heights

December 22 to 31, 2000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

12/22

/2000

00:00

12/22

/2000

12:00

12/23

/2000

00:00

12/23

/2000

12:00

12/24

/2000

00:00

12/24

/2000

12:00

12/25

/2000

00:00

12/25

/2000

12:00

12/26

/2000

00:00

12/26

/2000

12:00

12/27

/2000

00:00

12/27

/2000

12:00

12/28

/2000

00:00

12/28

/2000

12:00

12/29

/2000

00:00

12/29

/2000

12:00

12/30

/2000

00:00

12/30

/2000

12:00

12/31

/2000

00:00

12/31

/2000

12:00

Date and Time (PST)

Mix

ing

Hei

ght (

m a

gl)

AngiolaBakersfieldChowchilla

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Hourly PMHourly PM2.52.5 Concentration Concentration ––December 22-31, 2000December 22-31, 2000

Hourly PM2.5 ConcentrationsDecember 22 to 31, 2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

12/22

/2000

00:00

12/22

/2000

12:00

12/23

/2000

00:00

12/23

/2000

12:00

12/24

/2000

00:00

12/24

/2000

12:00

12/25

/2000

00:00

12/25

/2000

12:00

12/26

/2000

00:00

12/26

/2000

12:00

12/27

/2000

00:00

12/27

/2000

12:00

12/28

/2000

00:00

12/28

/2000

12:00

12/29

/2000

00:00

12/29

/2000

12:00

12/30

/2000

00:00

12/30

/2000

12:00

12/31

/2000

00:00

12/31

/2000

12:00

Date and Time (PST)

PM2.

5 (g/

m3 )

AngiolaBakersfieldBethel IslandFresnoSierra Nevada Foot Hills

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SynopticsSynoptics –– 500- 500-mbmb Heights Heights

December 24, 2000 December 28, 2000

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Mixing Depth Mixing Depth –– January 1-8, 2001 January 1-8, 2001Hourly Mixing HeightsJanuary 1 to 6, 2001

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

01/01

/2001

00:00

01/01

/2001

12:00

01/02

/2001

00:00

01/02

/2001

12:00

01/03

/2001

00:00

01/03

/2001

12:00

01/04

/2001

00:00

01/04

/2001

12:00

01/05

/2001

00:00

01/05

/2001

12:00

01/06

/2001

00:00

01/06

/2001

12:00

01/07

/2001

00:00

01/07

/2001

12:00

01/08

/2001

00:00

01/08

/2001

12:00

Date and Time (PST)

Mix

ing

Hei

ght (

m a

gl)

ChowchillaBakersfieldAngiola

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Mixing Depth Mixing Depth –– December 27 and 28, 2000 December 27 and 28, 2000Hourly Mixing Heights

December 27 and 28, 2000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

12:0

0:00

AM

1:00

:00

AM

2:00

:00

AM

3:00

:00

AM

4:00

:00

AM

5:00

:00

AM

6:00

:00

AM

7:00

:00

AM

8:00

:00

AM

9:00

:00

AM

10:0

0:00

AM

11:0

0:00

AM

12:0

0:00

PM

1:00

:00

PM2:

00:0

0 PM

3:00

:00

PM4:

00:0

0 PM

5:00

:00

PM6:

00:0

0 PM

7:00

:00

PM8:

00:0

0 PM

9:00

:00

PM10

:00:

00 P

M11

:00:

00 P

M12

:00:

00 A

M1:

00:0

0 A

M2:

00:0

0 A

M3:

00:0

0 A

M4:

00:0

0 A

M5:

00:0

0 A

M6:

00:0

0 A

M7:

00:0

0 A

M8:

00:0

0 A

M9:

00:0

0 A

M10

:00:

00 A

M11

:00:

00 A

M12

:00:

00 P

M1:

00:0

0 PM

2:00

:00

PM3:

00:0

0 PM

4:00

:00

PM5:

00:0

0 PM

6:00

:00

PM7:

00:0

0 PM

8:00

:00

PM9:

00:0

0 PM

10:0

0:00

PM

11:0

0:00

PM

12/27/00 12/28/00

Date and Time (PST)

Mix

ing

Hei

ght (

m a

gl)

ANGBSECHO

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Hourly PMHourly PM2.5 2.5 –– December 27 and 28, 2000December 27 and 28, 2000

Insert PM time series

PM2.5 (µg/m3) by Site

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

12/27/2000 12/28/2000

Time (12:00 am to 11:00 pm PST)

Con

cent

ratio

n

ANGIBACBTIFSFSNFH

Sum of PM2.5

Date Hour

Site

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Mixing DepthMixing Depth – Average Mixing at Chowchilla – Average Mixing at ChowchillaAverage Diurnal Mixing Height

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

12:00:00 AM 3:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 9:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 3:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM 9:00:00 PM

Time (PST)

Mix

ing

Hei

ght (

m a

gl)

EpisodeNon-Episode

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Mixing DepthMixing Depth – Average Mixing at Bakersfield – Average Mixing at Bakersfield

Average Diurnal Mixing Height

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

12:00:00 AM 3:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 9:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 3:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM 9:00:00 PM

Time (PST)

Mix

ing

Hei

ght (

m a

gl)

EpisodeNon-Episode

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Winds Winds –– 10 m on December 26 at 1500 PST 10 m on December 26 at 1500 PST

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Winds – 10 m on December 27 at 1500 PSTWinds – 10 m on December 27 at 1500 PST

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Winds – 450 m on December 27 at 1500 PSTWinds – 450 m on December 27 at 1500 PST

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Transport Transport –– 48-hr Backward Trajectories at48-hr Backward Trajectories at10 m 10 m aglagl Arriving at Bakersfield and Fresno Arriving at Bakersfield and Fresno

at 1500 PST on December 25-28, 2000at 1500 PST on December 25-28, 2000

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Transport Transport –– 48-hr Backward Trajectories at48-hr Backward Trajectories at450 m 450 m aglagl Arriving at Bakersfield and Fresno Arriving at Bakersfield and Fresno

at 1500 PST on December 25-28, 2000at 1500 PST on December 25-28, 2000

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Transport Transport ––48-hour Forward Trajectories at48-hour Forward Trajectories at10 m 10 m aglagl Arriving at Bakersfield and Fresno Arriving at Bakersfield and Fresno

at 1500 PSTat 1500 PST

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Transport: 48-hr Forward Trajectories at 450 mTransport: 48-hr Forward Trajectories at 450 maglagl Arriving at BAK and FSF at 1500 PST Arriving at BAK and FSF at 1500 PST

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0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

Bsp (inverse Mm)>0 - 50

>50 - 100

>100 - 200

>200 - 300

>300 - 400

>400

0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20%

Transport Transport –– Pollution Rose at Altamont Pass Pollution Rose at Altamont Pass

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0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

Bsp (inverse Mm)>0 - 50

>50 - 100

>100 - 200

>200 - 300

>300 - 400

>400

0% 10% 20% 30%

Transport Transport –– Pollution Rose at Pacheco Pass Pollution Rose at Pacheco Pass

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Chowchilla Chowchilla –– Episode Days Episode Days

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Chowchilla Chowchilla –– Non-Episode Days Non-Episode Days

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Winds Winds –– Trimmer on December 29, 2000 Trimmer on December 29, 2000

Nocturnal Jet?

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Trimmer Trimmer –– Episode Days Episode Days

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Trimmer Trimmer –– Non-Episode Days Non-Episode Days

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SummarySummary•• Mixing heightsMixing heights

–– As expected, upper-level synoptic weather patternsAs expected, upper-level synoptic weather patternsinfluenced mixing heightsinfluenced mixing heights•• Trough = high mixing heightTrough = high mixing height•• Ridge = low mixing heightRidge = low mixing height

–– Distinct diurnal patternDistinct diurnal pattern•• During episodes, mixing heights ranged from about 30 toDuring episodes, mixing heights ranged from about 30 to

200 m at night to about 400 to 600 m 200 m at night to about 400 to 600 m aglagl during the day during the day•• During non-episodes, mixing heights ranged from about 30 to 200 mDuring non-episodes, mixing heights ranged from about 30 to 200 m

at night to 1000 m + at night to 1000 m + aglagl during the day during the day

–– PM concentration responded to mixing generally asPM concentration responded to mixing generally asexpected, but the magnitude of variation is notexpected, but the magnitude of variation is notexplained by mixing aloneexplained by mixing alone•• Low mixing = higher PMLow mixing = higher PM•• High mixing = lower PMHigh mixing = lower PM•• Exception: mixing increased as did PM at Bakersfield on DecemberException: mixing increased as did PM at Bakersfield on December

28 suggesting mixing down of PM and/or its precursors, or local28 suggesting mixing down of PM and/or its precursors, or localsourcessources

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SummarySummary•• WindsWinds

–– Episodes had lighter winds during the day than didEpisodes had lighter winds during the day than didnon-episodesnon-episodes

–– During episodesDuring episodes•• Winds were variable in direction and were generally lightWinds were variable in direction and were generally light

from the surface to the maximum daytime mixing height offrom the surface to the maximum daytime mixing height ofabout 500 m about 500 m aglagl, and at times much higher., and at times much higher.

•• There is no evidence of transport from the San FranciscoThere is no evidence of transport from the San FranciscoBay Area (Bay Area (SFBASFBA) into the San Joaquin Valley () into the San Joaquin Valley (SJVSJV) during) duringepisodesepisodes

•• There is evidence of transport from the SJV into the There is evidence of transport from the SJV into the SFBASFBA..•• We have not reached conclusions about transport from theWe have not reached conclusions about transport from the

Sacramento Valley into the SJV or visa versa.Sacramento Valley into the SJV or visa versa.

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SummarySummary•• TrajectoriesTrajectories

–– Trajectories on three of four episode days indicateTrajectories on three of four episode days indicatethat boundary layer air parcels generally circulatedthat boundary layer air parcels generally circulatedwithin a radius of 25 to 50 km over 48 hourswithin a radius of 25 to 50 km over 48 hours

–– However, on one episode day, boundary layer airHowever, on one episode day, boundary layer airparcels traveled several hundred km in 48 hoursparcels traveled several hundred km in 48 hours

–– On most days, pollution from major On most days, pollution from major SJVSJV cities citiesdoes not impact other major cities but does impactdoes not impact other major cities but does impactsurrounding rural areassurrounding rural areas

–– However, occasionally pollution can beHowever, occasionally pollution can betransported longer distancestransported longer distances

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What’s NextWhat’s Next•• Complete modeling of other episodesComplete modeling of other episodes•• Run additional trajectoriesRun additional trajectories•• Perform CALPUFF dispersion modelingPerform CALPUFF dispersion modeling•• Integrate findings from other episodes intoIntegrate findings from other episodes into

existing resultsexisting results•• Further analyze regional chemicalFurther analyze regional chemical

characterization of secondary PMcharacterization of secondary PM•• Deliver results for integration into other tasksDeliver results for integration into other tasks