Targets, carbon stocks and deforestation reduction: Targets, carbon stocks and deforestation reduction:

Proposed benefit sharing in the Brazilian Amazon Proposed benefit sharing in the Brazilian Amazon

linking national and linking national and subsub--nationalnational targetstargetslinking national and linking national and subsub--nationalnational targetstargets

Paulo MoutinhoPaulo Moutinho

moutinho@ipam.org.brmoutinho@ipam.org.br

www.ipam.org.brwww.ipam.org.br

Forest Day, Dec 13Forest Day, Dec 13thth 2009, Copenhagen 2009, Copenhagen

BRAZIL

60% = EMISSIONS BY DEFORESTATION

(~ 170 MTC/YEAR; Amazon, 2008)

40% = FOSSIL FUEL (100 MTC/YEAR, ref.

2008): > 1.9 million ha/ano

~ 68 million ha deforested

18% of the brazilian Amazon

REDD in the Amazon/Opportunities

• National Action Plan to Prevent and Control Deforestation in the

Amazon (new phase, operating since 2004)

• Amazon Fund, a voluntary-based mechanism that receives

donations in order to compensate deforestation reduction and

invest in prevention and control (58 projects submitted, 5

approved)approved)

• National Plan on Climate Change – voluntary targets for emissions

reduction from deforestation in the Amazon (<80% up to 2020)

• Amazon States start to develop State Plans to prevent and control

Deforestation in the Amazon (4 Major states = 85% forest Cover

and represents 75% of the deforestation have already announced

the state plans with targets and baselines analogue to NPCC )

• National Target for emission reduction (~40% by 2020 or 17%

below 2005)

BRAZILIAN NATIONAL

PLAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Avoid emissions

~ 4.8 billion tons of

CO2 between 2006 19.500 Km²

Available at: http://www.mma.gov.br/estruturas/smcq_climaticas/_arquivos/executive_summary_pnmc.pdf

CO2 between 2006

and 2020,

considering a

biomass carbon

stock of 100 tC/ha.

19.500 Km²

Reduce deforestation

by 80% by 2020

Lowest rate since 1988

Deforestation Rates (km2) in Brazilian amazonia (1988-2009)

The Amazon States

How can a fair and equitable system for How can a fair and equitable system for

sharing financial benefits works from the sharing financial benefits works from the

national REDD mechanism to subnational REDD mechanism to sub--national national national REDD mechanism to subnational REDD mechanism to sub--national national

initiatives? initiatives?

��Changing the driving forces of deforestation Changing the driving forces of deforestation

��Identifying activities that contribute to the Identifying activities that contribute to the

REDD in REDD in thethe AmazonAmazon

��Identifying activities that contribute to the Identifying activities that contribute to the

maintenance of standing forestsmaintenance of standing forests

��Recognition of the rights to the lands, Recognition of the rights to the lands,

territories and resources which IPLC have territories and resources which IPLC have

traditionally owned or occupiedtraditionally owned or occupied

30% Carbon Stock = 13 billionTC

Avoided Deforestation = 5 billion TC (by 2050)Source: Soares Filho, 2009, no published data

REDD in REDD in thethe AmazonAmazon

(REDD (REDD projectsprojects ?)?)

Conecting

subnational to national targets

Assumptions

• Amazon States should commit to deforestation

reduction targets in State deforestation Plan.

• State targets must be consistent and integrated to • State targets must be consistent and integrated to

the National targets proposed by NPCC

• If all Amazon states adopt the same baseline method

and the same criteria for defining targets, NPCC will

have full compliance with its target

• If all states reduce their deforestation below their

respective target the country will have additionality

in relation to the NPCC

Annual rates & NPCC targets

Source: Lima et al, 2009,

Reduction Targets by Amazon States

5,511

4,5274,698

3,735

4,440

3,647

3,785

3,0093,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Acre

Amapá

Amazonas

Maranhão2º período

1º período

2,576

1,505

3,009

2,075

1,213

1,994

1,638

1,700

1,352932

545

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mato Grosso

Pará

Rondônia

Roraima

Tocantins

3º período

Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.br\biblioteca

6543 6963

7703

7892

10405

11814

8000

10000

12000

14000

desm

96/08

Linha de

Base MT

Mato Grosso State

Targets (km2)

7657

47.539 km2

+16.935 km2

64.474 km2=

6543

5271

6466

6963

6369

7892

7145

4333

2678

3259

4441 4441

2576 2576

1494 1494

2000

1500

15001500

870 8700

2000

4000

6000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

PNMC/MT

PPCD/MT

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

15.000 km2

Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.br\biblioteca

Target, Stock and Emission Reduction

The achievement of voluntary state target coherent and integrated to the NPCC Targets

The forest stock and an estimated cost for the The forest stock and an estimated cost for the management of protected area in the region

The effective deforestation reduction and the opportunity cost of it.

National Plan on Climate Change

And Deforestation Reduction

Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.br\biblioteca

Emission Reducton from 2006 to 2008

767 MtCO2 = 100%

383,5 MtCO2 = 50%383,5 MtCO2 = 50%

Distribution of C-REDD Among States 40% Stock 30% Flow

30% Target

NPCC Reduction

C-REDD Amazon Fund Federal

Government

Emission Reducton from 2006 to 2008767 MtCO2 = 100%

PA

Project

A

Project

B

MT AM RO AC MA TO APRR IL PPCA STL

383,5 MtCO2 = 50% (Projects and others REDD actions)

40% Stock 30% Flow 30% Target

153,5 MtCO2 = 20%230

MtCO2 = 30%

Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.br\biblioteca

23,667

36,731

7,958

20,238

total 06/08 (C-REDD)

Acre

Amazonas

Amapá

6.54 %

23.86 %

6.02 %

383,5 MtCO2 = 50% (Projects and others REDD actions)

40% Stock 30% Flow 30% Target

86,352

21,800

5,351103,215

56,645

Amapá

Maranhao

Mato Grosso

Pará

Rondônia

Roraima

Tocantins

6.02 %

1.48 %

28.52 %

15.65 %

10.15 %

2.20 %

5.59 %

Source: Lima et al, 2009, www.ipam.org.br\biblioteca

REDD

Scope: What is being delivered?Reference Level: How is it being measured?

DistributionDistribution : Where/to whom does the money go?DistributionDistribution : Where/to whom does the money go?Financing: Where does the money come from?

Environmentally effective?Economically efficient?Equitably distributed?Politically feasible?

Source: Parker C. et al. 2008. The Little REDD Book

Foto: Patrick Mcfeeley

Thank you!

Paulo Moutinhomoutinho@ipam.org.br

Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM)

Thank you!

WWW.IPAM.ORG.BR