Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Bled, Slovenia July 3 rd 2012 1.

Target setting for the SEE 2020 Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategystrategy

Bled, SloveniaJuly 3rd 2012

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Agenda• Introduction and objectives

• Target setting for Integrated Growth

• Target setting for Smart Growth

• Target setting for Sustainable Growth

• Target setting for Inclusive Growth

• Target setting for Governance for Growth

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Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision

SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference:

i. Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages;

ii. Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs

iii. Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development;

iv. Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all

v. Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption

A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial

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The proposed process

Nov 2011

Apr2012

Jun2012

Sep2012

Nov2012

Vision adopted

First draft targetsTargets discussed

Second draft targets

Written procedure & third draft

SEE Min

SEE IC

SEE IC

Final draft targets

Targets adopted

SEE Min

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Task Force Meeting

2nd Task Force Meeting

i. Integrated growth

a. Total value of trade in goods

b. Total value of trade in goods as % of GDP

c. Foreign direct investment net inflows

d. Foreign direct investment as % of GDP

e. Annual GDP growth

f. Standards and technical regulations

ii. Smart growth

a. Business expenditure on R&D

b. Gross expenditure on R&D

c. Tertiary education attainment

d. GDP per person employed

e. High technology exports

f. Internet users

g. Software Piracy Rates

h. Participation in lifelong learning

iii. Sustainable growth

a. CO2 emissions

b. Renewable energy

c. Energy efficiency

d. Fossil fuel consumption

e. Entrepreneurship

f. Trade balance in goods as % of GDP

iv. Inclusive growth

a. Employment

b. Female employment

c. Gender ratio of income

d. Poverty headcount / People at risk of poverty

e. Early leavers from school

f. Formal training

g. Youth employment

h. Gini co-efficientv. Governance for growth

a. Unofficial payments are frequent

b. Government debt as % of GDP

c. Rule of law

d. Regulatory quality

An initial set of target indicators

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Agenda

• Introduction and objectives






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Dimensions for Integrated Growth

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a. Total value of trade in goods

b. Total value of trade in goods as % of GDP

c. Foreign direct investment net inflows

d. Foreign direct investment as % of GDP

e. Annual GDP growth

f. Standards and technical regulations

Integrated Growth: Total value of trade in goods

Main Indicator?

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Source: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database

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Integrated Growth: Regional trade openness in good

Suggested indicator

Integrated Growth: Foreign direct investment

10Source: World Bank

Integrated Growth: foreign direct investment


Suggested indicator

GDP Growth (Annual)


Suggested indicator

Integrated Growth: Standards and technical regulations

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Source: SME Policy Index 2012, only includes Western Balkans

Suggested indicator

Full transposition of EU standards and laws

No legislation or standards transposed.

Agenda







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a.Business expenditure on R&D

b.Gross expenditure on R&D

c.Tertiary education attainment

d.GDP per person employed

e.High technology exports

f. Internet users

g.Software Piracy Rates

h.Participation in lifelong learning

Dimensions for Smart Growth

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Smart Growth: Business expenditure on R&DMain

Indicator?

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Source: UNESCO data for SEE, Eurostat data for the EU and Erawatch data for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Smart Growth: Gross expenditure on R&D

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Source: UNESCO data for SEE, Eurostat data for the EU

EU2020 target

Smart Growth: Tertiary education attainment

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Source: Eurostat

EU2020 target

Smart Growth: GDP per person employed


?

Smart Growth: High technology as % of manufactured exports


Smart Growth: Internet usage


Smart Growth: Estimated software piracy rates

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Source: Eighth Annual Business Software Alliance Global Software Piracy Study

Smart Growth: Lifelong learning

23Source: Eurostat

Suggested indicator

Agenda







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a.CO2 emissions

b.Renewable energy

c.Energy efficiency

d.Fossil fuel consumption

e.Entrepreneurship

f. Trade balance in goods as % of GDP

Dimensions for Sustainable Growth

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Sustainable Growth: CO2 emissions


EU2020 target

Sustainable growth: Share of renewable energy

27Source: Eurostat

EU2020 target

Sustainable Growth: Energy efficiency

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Source: World Bank

EU2020 target

Sustainable Growth: Fossil fuel consumption


Sustainable Growth: Entrepreneurship

Note: The EU average is based on data from France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Poland and Sweden only

Main Indicator?

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Source: EBRD Life in Transition Survey

Sustainable Growth: External balance on goods and services (% of GDP)


Agenda







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Dimensions for Inclusive Growth

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Inclusive Growth: Employment

EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category 20-64 year olds 70.3% to 75% in 2020Main

Indicator?


Inclusive Growth: Female employment


Suggested indicator

Inclusive Growth: Gender ratio of income

Note: The data for EU-27 and SEE show exactly the same ratio: 61.9% 36

Inclusive Growth: Poverty headcount

EU2020 foresees a reduction by 20 million, or 17% of the number of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion


Inclusive Growth: Early leavers from school

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EU2020 target

Inclusive Growth: Formal Training


Inclusive Growth: Youth Employment


Suggested indicator

Inclusive growth: Gini co-efficient

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Source: World BankNotes: The Gini Index plots the cumulative percentages of total income received against the cumulative number of recipients, starting with the poorest individual or household.

Suggested indicator

Agenda







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a. Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent

b. Government debt as % of GDP

c. Rule of law

d. Regulatory quality

Dimensions for Governance for Growth

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Governance for Growth: Percentage of firms saying that unofficial payments are frequent

Main Indicator?

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Source: World Bank and the EBRD, Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey

Governance for Growth: Government debt as % of GDP

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Source: World Bank, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, EBRD

Governance for Growth: Rule of law

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Source: World Bank

Governance for Growth: Regulatory quality

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Source: World Bank

Suggestions/ Discussion• Indicators on:

Vocational Education and TrainingBusiness demography dataNet job creation rate Share of the informal economyMore detailed indicators on povertyGlobal Competitiveness Index scoresCorruption perception index scores

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Comments

Are these indicators available?

Are there data for SEE economies?

Do they capture something that is not yet captured by the existing indicators?

Are they relevant for the SEE 2020 strategy?

Do they capture a priority of the SEE 2020 strategy?

Milan KonopekRCI Project Manager / Policy Analyst

OECD Investment Compact for South East EuropePrivate Sector Development Division

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)[email protected]

www.investmentcompact.org

Thank you for your Thank you for your attentionattention

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mailto:[email protected]

ANNEX

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Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Bled, Slovenia July 3 rd 2012 1.

Documents

Transcript of Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Bled, Slovenia July 3 rd 2012 1.