Target: Discuss human population dynamics by Describe factors that affect population growth ...
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Transcript of Target: Discuss human population dynamics by Describe factors that affect population growth ...
Target: Discuss human population dynamics by
Describe factors that affect population growthInterpret population graphsCompare population growth issues in developed vs. developing countries
Population change = (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
Crude Birth Rate: number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year
Crude Death Rate: number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a given year
Annual rate of natural population change (%) = (Birth rate – Death rate)/1,000 person x 100
Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate
World
All developedcountries
All developingcountries
Developingcountries
(w/o China)
21
9
11
10
24
8
27
9
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Exponential population growth has not disappeared but is occurring at a slower rate. Between 1963 to 2004, annual rate of natural
population change dropped from 2.2% to 1.25%. Annual rate of natural population change differs
between developed and developing countries: In 2004, 0.1% in developed countries In 2004, 1.5% in developing countries
© 2
004
Bro
oks
/Co
le –
Th
om
son
Lea
rnin
g China
India
USA
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Russia
Bangladesh
Japan
Nigeria
2004 2025
1.3 billion1.4 billion
1.1 billion1.4 billion
294 million
349 million
219 million308 million
179 million
211 million
159 million
229 million
144 million137 million
141 million
205 million
128 million
121 million
137 million206 million
Rule of 70:Doubling time (in years) = 70/ rate of
growth (%)
Using the current annual rate of natural growth…70 / 1.25% = 56 years for the world’s
population to double70 / 2.8% = 25 years for Nigeria’s
population to double
Replacement-Level Fertility: number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves2.1 in developed countriesas high as 2.5 in developing countries
Total Fertility Rate: average number of children a woman typical has during reproductive years1.5 in developed countries3.1 in developing countries with 5.2 in
Africa in 2004
World
Developedcountries
Developingcountries
Africa
LatinAmerica
Asia
Oceania
NorthAmerica
Europe
5 children per woman2.8
2.5
1.6
6.53.1
6.65.1
5.92.6
5.92.6
3.82.1
3.52.0
2.61.4
1950 2004
© 2
004
Bro
oks
/Co
le –
Th
om
son
Lea
rnin
g
High (2.5)
Med. (2.0)
Low (1.5)
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
21950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
High10.6
Medium8.9
Low7.2
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(b
illio
ns)
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.02.1
1.5
1.0
0.5
01920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Bir
ths
per
wo
man
Baby boom(1946-64)
Replacement level
600
500
400
300
200
100
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
76
292
571
Total population
Projections
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illio
ns
United States Mexico Canada
Population(2004)
Projected population(2025)
349 million
Infant mortality rate
Lifeexpectancy
Total fertilityrate (TFR)
% populationunder age 15
% populationover age 65
Per capitaGDP PPP
294 million106 million
32 million
150million36 million
6.725
5.2
2.02.8
1.7
21%35%
18%
12%
13%5%
$8,790
77 years75 years
79 years
$36,110
$31,892
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
47 years77 years
8%81%
15%
83%
10%98%
2%99%
10%52%
$15$3
1.25.8
1900
2000
Life expectancy
Married women workingoutside the home
High school graduates
Homes with flush toilets
Homes with electricity
Living in suburbs
Hourly manufacturing jobwage (adjusted for inflation)
Homocides per100,000 people
Importance of child labor Cost of raising a family Availability of pension Urbanization Education and employment for women Infant mortality Average age at marriage Availability of reliable birth control
methods and legal abortion Religious beliefs & traditions
Life expectancy: average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live
Infant morality rate: number of babies out of every 1,000 born who die before their first birthday Single best measure of a society’s quality of
life 40 countries have lower infant mortality rates
than the US due to… Inadequate health care Drug addiction High teenage birth rate
Age structure: distribution of males and females in each age group3 age categories
Prereproductive (0 to 14) Reproductive (15 to 44) Postreproductive (ages 45 and up)
Male Female
Rapid GrowthGuatemala
NigeriaSaudi Arabia
Slow GrowthUnited States
AustraliaCanada
Male Female
Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
30% of world population is under 15 years old.
Zero GrowthSpainAustriaGreece
Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden
Male Female Male Female
Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
6
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
Percent of population 1900
Ag
e
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
Percent of population 2000
Ag
e
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
Percent of population 2050
Ag
e
4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4
Population(2004)
Populationprojected
(2025)
Infantmortality
rate
Lifeexpectancy
Fertilityrate (TFR)
%Populationunder
age 15
% Populationover
age 65
Per capitaGNI PPP
294 million179 million
137 million
349 million211 million
206 million
6.733
100
77 years
71 years52 years
2.02.2
5.7
21%30%
44%
12%6%
3%
$36,110$7,450
$800
United States (highly developed)
Brazil (moderately developed)
Nigeria (less developed)
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
01950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150
Year
Ag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n (
%)
Under age 15 Age 60 or over Age 80 or over
Demographic Transitions: as countries become more industrialized, first their death rates then birth rates decline.4 stages
Preindustrial Transitional Industrial Postindustrial
Low
High
Rel
ati
ve
po
pu
lati
on
siz
e
Bir
th r
ate
an
d d
eath
rat
e(n
um
ber
per
1,0
00 p
er
yea
r)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Stage 1Preindustrial
Stage 2Transitional
Stage 3Industrial
Stage 4Postindustrial
Low Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero Negative
Birth rate
Total population
Death rate
Growth rate over time
Demographic Trap: when a country stays at stage 2 because population growth exceeds economic growth.
Reasons why countries get caught:Shortage of skilled workers to produce high-
tech products to compete in a global economy
Lack of financial capital and other resourcesSharp rise of debt to developed countriesDecreased economic assistance from
developed countries
Percentageof world
population
Population
Population (2025)(estimated)
Illiteracy (%of adults)
Population under age 15(%)
Population growth rate (%)
Total fertility rate
Infant mortality rate
Life expectancy
GDP PPP per capita
17%20%
1.1 billion1.3 billion
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
47%17%
36%
22%
1.7%0.6%
3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
6432
62 years
71 years
$2,650
$4,520
IndiaChina