Tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL AND BASIC TREND IDENTIFICATION.
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Transcript of Tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL AND BASIC TREND IDENTIFICATION.
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL AND BASIC TREND IDENTIFICATION
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
DIFFERENT TYPE OF TRENDS
You need to ride a trend until the weight of the evidence showed that it has reversed.
WHAT IS A TREND ?
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
2000
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
THE LONGER A TREND HAS BEEN IN EXISTENCE, THE GREATER THE IMPLICATIONS OF ITS REVERSALS ONCEA SIGNAL HAS BEEN GIVEN.
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Because they last so long, SECULAR trends do not turn around that often
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Primary trends are usually made of bull and bear markets
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Secular trends are made of several bull and bear primary trends
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
INVESTORS SHOULD ALWAYS POSITION THEIR ASSETS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAIN ORPRIMARY TREND.
SHORT-TERM TRADERS SHOULD ALWAYS TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE PRIMARY TREND.
MOST LOSING TRADES ARE POSITIONED AGAINSTTHE DIRECTION OF THE MAIN TREND.
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bear market rallies are very unpredictable and hard to trade !
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
CLEAR DOWN-TREND
UNPREDICTABLERETRACEMENTS
CLEAR UP-TREND
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL
The Long Term (LT) Cycle
The Intermediate Cycle
The Short-Term (ST) Cycle
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PRIMARY TREND
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
INTERMEDIATE TREND
6 WEEKS – 9 MONTHS
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PRIMARY AND INTERMEDIATE TREND INTERACTION
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
MARKET CYCLE MODEL
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
THE LONGER THE TREND, THE EASIEST IT IS TO IDENTIFY
PRICES ARE AFFECTED BY CONFLUENCE OF TRENDS
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
One of the principle building blocks in technicalanalysisis the idea that prices do not move up ordown in straight lines, but experience zig-zag movements
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PEAK
PEAK
THROUGH
THROUGH
1
2
PEAK & THROUGH
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PEAK
PEAK
THROUGH
THROUGH
1
2
LOWER PEAK & EQUAL THROUGH…
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PEAK
PEAK
THROUGH
THROUGH
1
2
LOWER PEAK &LOWER THROUGH
CHANGE IN TREND
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PEAK AND THROUGH DILEMNA
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
tarek AMYUNI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS