Tarbiat Modares University9-Adelman, Irma & Sherman, Robinson (1988) Macroeconomic Adjustment &...

23
/ / ) ( . ) ( . . " . . . . " " . . : . JEL calssification No. E52, I32, O15. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 [email protected] . Downloaded from ecor.modares.ac.ir at 16:13 IRDT on Tuesday June 15th 2021

Transcript of Tarbiat Modares University9-Adelman, Irma & Sherman, Robinson (1988) Macroeconomic Adjustment &...

  • ��� ��� �� ���� ��� ��/��/��

    ����� ��� � �� � ��� ��� ����� ����

    )���� ���� � ���� !"��#�(

    %��� &�'� (�� )��* ��+,� -

    .��/0

    �� ���� ��� �� �� ��� � ����� ����� ��� ���� ���� �� �� � �! "#$��� �%&� . (��)*�� +� ���*$�#�

    ����� ,��$� ) ��� �. /��$0� �� (�� �2. . 3�$4 ��� �*��5� �*���� �*���� 6�*� 7*��8 �� �*8 9�*� �*�� :�;� . �

    ��4 ��. �&��< =�> ?�%8 . *��) �� ��� �0�4 �. �@���� 6 ����5� �8 �A���2 �� " �*�4 �*�� (&*8 �*. �*�34� .

    �� ��;#. �� ���� 7��C :5$2� ?����D �)�$�� �� ���5� ���� �� E�� ��0� �FG. . �� �� � �! ���� 7�

  • � :5$2� ?��R ����� �3�� �. :D ��U �� �� aQD ��3%�. �@�M ���< 6� /&��*� �� �*�� (&*8 "��*. E�H b�2 ?

    ��8 �&�� ?:�! /3D �� ���5� ���� �� X�N$�� :�@� o�� X*&��5$� �*. � �*&�

    ����D ���< 6��� � :5$2� �\�M �� �. 6���%\. �� 7p��. ��� ��� . �� I�� ���5� . )%�R 7C��� �� ��� D �� +��*�

    ��;#. �� :5$2���FG..

    4( ��� ����� �����5��

    . ���� ���� � �! 6��� ��$

  • ��9� :�5;� <6 �R :�! �I�U /��$0� ��] ��A. �� :�$%R�� �*%R . *8 ���� �*. �� �� �*�)� �*�� �� +� 6���***�5� �

    X)R�� ^4. X�� �� �U�� �. �2. ��PC��� 7�#. j�4 �**. �4��� .��).� �**�� �� 7�Q$�� �O�� ��)� +��*R �$� 6��*�

    #�4. �&��;$U���� . �� &��).� ��� �� ����C��� +� 6��� �P �2.. �*�� �� 7�Q$�� :D ��U �� �*� ��)*.� 6��*� �*4���

    �$2�� X�3� X#�4. �&���� ��@I� �. )�4 �V���2. .

    �� ���� =��2>? ��� J��X ��&��FR �� :�! �I�U :�$%R X��. ��� �*R X���� �@*��� ���*#. s���� � :�*! ���*.

    �$�� X�%$0&� . :�! ���. �� X)R�� ^4. �\

  • �� ���5� )�4 #$��� ����U =A� ?:�! /3D ���5� . [�%$� ?���k4 ��� S�� �%R . +��*. �. 7C��� ��� 9�� (�!

    �� �� /3D � :�! J��C �U�� �� �2. .�� � �! 6��k4 �@��� ? �*���� ���*� �� :�*! J��*C �U�� +��. �. 9��

    ������� . :�! J��C �U�� X����! E�#Q� [$�� ��� ���M +�����! ���k4�� �*� �k4 �� +� 6; X3. �*4��C . �R��**L

    �� +� �� ���5� [M�� �R �*\���U �� T�U X�**%R �. ?�4�2 %R �*% . *.� +� 6��*��5� ��0*� �*����A. � �*%�. (�*! T

    ��� u�GF� .�� ��M� �. �4�� E��� �.� (��)�� �� �� �� �$@��� �#M�� T.� +�)�� �. � �! 7��

  • (��)�� ?X���. ��M� ��@I� �� �� 7�#. j�4 �. ��� :D ��U �� � I�� ^��� ���� �� �\) ��� 6��� � ��.�� ���k4�( �� �� TR XI�� �. ���PC . � �*! �*��� :*;4� �*. �*@��� 7�*#. j�*4 (&*R

    ��0;4�? �\ �� �I�U �%%� �R �%%R ?�%*2. �*%�. (�*! T*.� � *� � � �*! X#$*���

    ��� X���U . ��� #$��� ��� �P X �4���4 ����D X&��5$� �. . �*%�. (�! T.� ��] ��� �. ��RP� X#$��� �C� ��

    �%%� ?�$�� sQ�� 7�k$%� ��] � �I�U �*� ��RP*� X#$*��� � ��*. �*&��< �;_� [�2 X���� �� �*��5� w*U. �*4���

    1. Mehtzer, 1995.

    2. Mishkin , 2001 and Gertler, & Gilchrist, 1994.

    Dow

    nloa

    ded

    from

    eco

    r.m

    odar

    es.a

    c.ir

    at 1

    6:13

    IRD

    T o

    n T

    uesd

    ay J

    une

    15th

    202

    1

    https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html

  • ��5$� ���C ����D X& . 6��k$4� T�R T��@� T� � �. ��#4 �� ��? ��U �I�U �%%� � ��� � 7�2 X ��� �*. #$���

    ����D X&��5$��_%< �� ��2.

    ��)%�R T.�� �� X��� �. �R �4��$@� & �� �%�@� =A� #$���? (��)�� �*@��� �*I�U (��)*�� [*M�� :�! /3D ����

    �� :�! ���C? 4 �3�$4 �� ����� +� :;4� �. � �$�� (&R � �@� 7�#. j� �*�� �*. ?�*�� �&��< (��)�� �� �� � X��PC

    :5$2� [����) ���� 7��C( ����� � �� �.� ��;#. �4���. �*� �K*�A� l�*& ��� �. ���$�� �� �M��. "�08 ���� ��

    ��� .��34� ��4 "��PC ����� ��;#. �. ��) 7�#. j�4 (&8 +�L.

    .� ��� �*��C �*k4 �� +��*� �� ��� ,���2 � ����� ����� ��;#. �. � �! ���� X��PC�� X��. :4R �� �\Rc. � ��* ��

    �� � (��)*�� �� 7��� +� �*���� ,��$� ?uGF� 7��� ^� �� ��0;4� � �! ���� :�U� �R ��� ��� :4R ���$�#�

    �&� �� (&R �� ��� /��$0� ��� �. �3�$4 . �R ��*L �*�� �*R X���*�� ���*@� (&*R [M�� ����� ��O4�� �� (��)��

    ���C �� ?�4��� ���� ��� ,< .��. �&��< =�> ?�4�. �. 6�� 7��8 �� ����� ����� �8 9�� ��� :�;� . �3�$4 ���.

    E��? �� � �! ���� � �R X���4 �R�F� j�4 (��)�� � X���. j�4 (&R ���� �� �4���)�4 �)�$�� ��*. �� ����D

    �*2. �$*2�� :;4� �. ���� ����� X��. �� ���� 7��R ��%� ?�4�����D � �$4� X#$

  • �� 6�k4 +� �. #%� ?��2 :�$%R � ���@� �$�� ��2 . �� � �I�U ��4��� ���\�U �� �P j�*4 �� T*�R ��*A. :�*! XI

    ��4 t�@%� 7�#. ��2 .

    �O�� �Cp�� ?�@��� :D �� X&�N$�� �*� :�! J��C �U�� �����. �� 6�� 7��R 64��4 ��M� �*2.c . ��

    . 7�#. j�4 �$��C �k4 �� ?X�$�� ��%L ��M� T�H� ��� :�! X���#O4 �>�� �%�)& +��%U �2. . �*�� �*�#� �$�4 ���

    �� �� �R �! ����� ����!4 �U�� . �#M�� �*� �$��C 7���4 :�! XI�� �.� =��F� �#M :�! X����� ���k4 �� ��*2.

    �@��� X&HR 6��N. /& 6�� &��FR ��� ��) � ���� ?+�$<�… (�� X���#O4 �P* ?�*�4 :�*! 6��N*. /& � ��2

    :�! X���#O4 �%�)& �� �$� C� � �0& )�4 X�k$4� E��� j�4 *\\� � ��*. 7�*#. X*#< ,���2 ��� �%4��� T�$0� � �! � �� �%%R :;4� . X�*M h0D ��;#. �. �;04 X� ����� 64��M �R �$��

    �� +F4 �Q%� T�@ � t�U �&�? �� XM �. �Q%� �� #$��� x�4 ��� X��O�! ���PC. X*#4��M ?E��� �O�� 6�;U �.

    ����� X��� �� ���� ��� �� /��$0� ��A. � ���� �� X�N$�� �2� � �&�� �%Rf .

    ^�%�� �� �� 7�Q$����)3� 7��� X�)M� �. E��� �4�� � X�"& ���N� ? TO4� ^�%��– �34�C �R �4��*��C� �*A.�� ^�

    �����. �N$�� X��\R X&��5$� � E��� ��.�� �%8A< =�N� � �@�3� /& ^�%�� � ? �� �� E��*� "��P*! ��� ����.

    F4 /& �4; � ��F8 X��. :�! �I�U �2�?��� +7��� �� ��� 7��. �%$� :�! /3D � E��� �A.�� �D � �� X& .

    � �! X&��5$� � E��� ?�� �� l�2 ��. �A.�� ��R�� � ^�)�� ? 7�R ?�\�2 X&��FR �� X&����. ^�%�� �� 7�Q$�� .

    $0;�& ��< ?��� +F4 � �� ���� �)�$�� �2� ?�\� :�! J��� (&R?� �! �2� 6�� 7��R �� E��*� � �*� �� l�*2 ?

    &��FR ��� �%$0& T.�$� b;��� �L� . �� E��� �$�� 7�%%R ���@� T�U ���$�#� +��%U �. �)�$�� 6����5� �*2. . ��

    ��� ���� ��� � &��FR ) 7�R X%_$�� �. ( �%@� ��A. �)�$�� 7��� +F*4 T*�@ � t*�U E��*� 6��*��5� �. �;04 X���

    ��� . � t�U 7�R �� �� ��� �����2 �� �� 6����5� �. �;04 &�)�$�� T�@ . �A.�� /& E��� �. �)�$�� T**�@ � t�U

    �&� �� +F4 �� �� 64��4 . X��� �%@� . �)�$�� 6����5� ���� �� E��� [���� ��� �. �� �3�� +��4 �� �� �� �*%R .

    �)�� /]��\U ��� ��� �\� :�! J��� (&R �I X#$��� 6�� 7��R �� �@��� �)�$�� (�? (FR +��. ���! ��G.

    ���C �� �� (��)�� [M�� ?�R X���4 XI�� . *#$��� (��)�� T�U ���$�#� ��FR �#L ��� �� E��� �� �24 X#R�2

    ��� 7��. �R ���C �� E��� �. �3%� �)����< ��A. . ��FR �� ���� ��) ̂ *�)�� X%_$�� �. ( �*2� �*. b�*.�� X#R�*2

    � :�! �I�U ���$�#T�U 6��*��5� ^*�)�� �� *�� ?�*�� 7��*. 6�*� 7��R �� �L � 6�� �%\. �� �L ����� X#R�2

    ��� 7�2 7��� u�GF� E��� �� /#� T�U HR �I�U.

    � �8 "�O�� /#� �\K0��"��PC � �! ���� �� �$� �� ?�%8 � *� �$<� �*� �N*$�� �*2. . �*�� �*���.

    �R ��I��" � �! ���� ��*#&O%. �*. ��< =A� �� �*L� �*8 � *� �����*� ?�%$0*& ���� �� �*� ���$F*�. "? ��

    1. Park, y.(1970).

    2 . Joyce , (1991). 3. Obstfed , (1989). 4 . Fry , (1995). 5. Domac, (1998).

    6 . Agenor and Hoffmaister, (1997).

    Dow

    nloa

    ded

    from

    eco

    r.m

    odar

    es.a

    c.ir

    at 1

    6:13

    IRD

    T o

    n T

    uesd

    ay J

    une

    15th

    202

    1

    https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html

  • ��� 7�2 ���� "��� 6@ A�c . �. ̂ ���K� v

    . ����� ?7�#. j�4 (��)�� . �R ��� ��� �. �k$4� �*��@� �*. X��P*C

  • ���! E��� X#� [D�R � �\;���6 ]W� !8R ]W� ^9,

    "#. u<2

    �2��� 7��U)=(

    "#. u<2

    �2��� 7��<)=(

    :�! /3D ):�� ���\��(

    :�! �;2 ):�� ���\��(

    �O%���4 ):�� ���\��(

    :�

    g g �&� ,��$�

    gg g g �&� ,��$�

    g gg 7��� ,��$� ̀

    g gg g 7��� TR ,��$�

    P<� :4����+���� X)8�� 4. ��

    � �� �M��. � � ���� �. b�.�� m���U �O%���4 ���� �2� �$Q4 "&����� (��)�� �� �24 ?��

  • ��

    ����� �%�#. �>�N< (G. ��. ��4. /$0�� 6��;$U� � (G. ����U )+� �$0.�� X&�#4 � � �� (S�� �. �;04

    ����R ����� #FG. ��� X�N$�� X#$� @� �� 6��> C��� . 7�Q$�� �� +� X�N4� 6��� � � �� X&��4 �C��$0C

    ��� 7��� s�� ��R��] (G. ��� �. �� 6��;$U� ?�.%� �� .. �� 6��;$U� :�@� +��M ��$.� ��� ��� ��� /& 4� tr� � �

    �%�)& �2� �� �� �� � �� X&�#M��� 6��< � HR ���� �I�U . X&���!�2�� �&��< �. �� ����� .

    �&�. ��H. �2� 7��r� . �0��� �� � �� X& ��4. /$0�� �)4 �� X&)�4 ��� �$�4 ���& ��� . ��A. �4H� � ��

    ,��$�U� ?��< X#&��r� /3D �� �$F�. �.��. 7�4� �k4 ���� 7��� :�� E�� �� m;���� � ��� 7��R ����� 6��;$

    7��r� �~4. /$0�� ����� 7��. �Q%� � ��.

    W��X4 :�_�D KA� ���� ^'� � .�7� .�6�� ���� � ):�� ���\��(

    �;04

    �. �&�.

    7��r�

    � ��

    /#�

    �&�.

    � ��

    7�4�

    7��r�

    � ��

    7��r�

    � ��

    �&�.

    � ��

    �;04

    �. �. �&

    7��r�

    � ����]

    /#�

    7��r�

    ��]

    � ��

    7�4�

    7��r�

    � ����]

    ��] 7��r�

    � ��

    ��] �&�.

    �$ �� :�

    /e d` cc c ./ d dc g �&� ,��$�

    /c f d` cfce dd / ddd cf �&� ,��$�

    /d dc` ec / cfdcf cc ec 7��� ,��$�

    f`ce

    fce` deed c c cd cfc cecc 7��� T8 ,��$�

    P<� :+���� X)8�� 4. ��4 ����

    � �L�C ���N< (G. �&�. ����. ���� 7��� ���D d �>��

    ��� �$2�� �2� �4H�.��� �$2�� "���2 �Q%� �2� 7��� ��N< (G

    �&� �� ��df��� 7��. �>�� . [���� ��� �..7��U (�4 �$ �� (G. �;$U� ���� �� �>�N< (G �$2�� X����.

    ,��$� ��A. X��PC 7��r� �� �>�N< (G. /#� �>Z< ��A.��� 7��. �>�� ? ��� D �� ���$#. ��

    ,���2 6��;$U� TR �� �>�� �� � �� � ��� 7��R 7�Q$�� T.�� ��c7��r� �>�� ?X��PC � �&C �� �>��

    6��;$U�7��� nN$�N< (G. �O�ZU �. X��PC��� � ����� ,���2 �� ?

    X�M #$� @� ��� ��� �. �O%���4 ��� �� �C�). (G. ?� ����] X#$� @� �;04 �4�� �. �M�� .�� 2��. +��M ���

    �� /& �� �N$�� ���. �R 7����C ������C #FG. �$Q#4 �.%� hzM � �&� ���� ���.

    Dow

    nloa

    ded

    from

    eco

    r.m

    odar

    es.a

    c.ir

    at 1

    6:13

    IRD

    T o

    n T

    uesd

    ay J

    une

    15th

    202

    1

    https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html

  • ��

    W��X U( ���� !� W� `�5X� �8+6 ):�� ���\�� ̀�>�� (

    :�! /3M �;04

    �� �� �.

    �O%���4 �;04

    �� �� �.

    �;2 �;04

    �� �� �. :�!

    ���� �. �\� �� ��

    �.:� e e dcc �&� ��O4��

    c e d ddc 4�� �&� ��O

    c cdf e e ��O4��`f

    c e dd ddcf 7��� T8 ��O4�� P<� :+���� X)8�� 4. ��4 ����

    �R :�! J��C �U�� ���� ���. :�! /3D �. �� �� X�M J��� /�0�� ���? )�4 X�N$�� X#$� @� J��C ��;�

    �0& . �� �;04 ��� �� �k4 ���� 7���/d �&� �� �. c/ �&� :�� ���4 �� ��� �$2�� (��)�� . �� ��� D ��

    �&� ��. �;04 ��� � � ��� 7��. c.�. �M�� . (��)�� ���N< (G. T��� ?? � (&R

    �� �]� 7��. ��� X#$� @� X�� �. �R�D � �O%���4 =�M�� ��2 . ���� ���. �� 7�#. X#�N< ��] +C�%&� ��4. /$0�� (��� ��H. ��0.� � ���� �;04 ��� �� ��H. �&��. . X�� �� X#$� @�

    %$0& o�4�?� :5$2� � �� �� �U�� +����C �%R � )%� �. ,���2 ��� �U��3� ��. �&���� dd �>��

    ��� 7��. ..%.�� #$��� �2� ��O4�� ��� � �0�.c�2. �>�� . �� �2��� 7��U ���� �2� ,��$� ��� D ��

    7��� ���&df��� �>�� . �2��� 7��U ���� u<2 ��R��� 6����5� ��. lZ$ +����� ��34ce ̀ce.

    d`P<� +�& .

    Dow

    nloa

    ded

    from

    eco

    r.m

    odar

    es.a

    c.ir

    at 1

    6:13

    IRD

    T o

    n T

    uesd

    ay J

    une

    15th

    202

    1

    https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html

  • ��

    W��XJ(�'�>� � ��a� [D�R

    ��8��� 6����5�

    ���� u<2

    �2��� 7��<

    ��8��� 6����5�

    7��U ���� u<2

    �2���

    ��8��� u<2

    #$��� �. �F�

    �F� u<2

    #$��� �.

    6����5�

    :�! u<2

    ce=c

    ����5� 6

    �� �� u<2

    ce=c

    :�

    dd c d d de f` ce

    f e c de e cd cec

    f c cd ced

    ef ec d` cee

    cf cf c d cef

    cff ccd c c f cc` ce

    dcf cf d f ff c` ce

    ee de dc f ` ce

    e d e ce

    fc ec e c c ce

    dd dc fd ccc c ce

    d cc cdf cec

    e fe d dd df d ced

    cc ce cde ee ef c cee

    cdd dd c ff f f cef

    dd d de ce

    d ec d ec ec f ce

    ecc ee edd c dc ce

    ee fdc e f fe e ce

    fee ec ce cdf cd ce

    ffd d ee cd cd ce

    dd ce c cd cf cec

    c d cc c cf ced

    d ccdc c c c cee

    fff d cfcf dfe d cd cef

    P<� :4 ����+���� X)8�� 4. ��

    b( .��� c��� �� X���. j�4 ?���� X&��5$� ?���C ���� 7�2� ���� T;� X#$�0� �� �R X�k4 � X��.�R 6�.�3� S�� �.

    )�� �� �2� j�4 �( ��� � ����� ����� �. � �! ���� �� :�$4� X&��5$� ���$�#� �� 7�#. j�4 � �$��� 6��k$4� ?�� �%2..

    �'�>� ��>? d#�: 7��� �� X&Q\$G� �X�#2 ���N� 6��< � HR ���� u<2 �\�M �� ? &HR ���� u<2 �� �� 7�%%R T��@� u<2 � �4�$<� +��C�R �)�$�� u<2 ?�2��� 7��U X#. u<2 ?7�%%R �� �� 6��< �

    �\

  • ��

    ;�

    � X��. X��. ?�2��� 7��< =A� �� 6��< � &HR ���� ?���N� 6��< � &HR ���� u<2 � X#. u<2 �;�

    � X��. � 7�%%R �� �� =A� �� 6��< � &HR ���� ?7�%%R �� �� ���� u<2 �;�

    7��U �� �$��C �k4 �� :�� ��� X& 7�%%R ����� � �2��� 7��U =A� �� #$��� ?�2��� ��2 . ���� u<2 6�Q� X&HR �. 6� � ?J��� �. 6� � ?�$ �� X& �4��� �

  • ��

    �V$��� ��%� fd/ fd/ fc/ fce/ e/ fc/

    P<� : +���� ��� )R��

    - (j(���B�� %�� ����>6 k�8��� ����

    �*. *#4� X�� �*.�� 6��*��5� ?�3%��N*$�� X�O � �� 7�2 v

    X&��5$� ��. ,.��� �� �� ����. ��k%� �.

    7�2 :��4 ��R��� �����4 S�� ��� �$��C ���� �0��� ����) X&�����4c � � .( X&�����4c � � e �&� �� +F4

    �*2� � �*\�� �R

    ���� �O%���4 . X&�����4 S�� �. ��%q�&f � � ��$0*� �*A.�� �R �QC +��� �� �;0*4 � �*%�M [��*I ��*. ��

    ��*. �N*GF� �*A.�� *�� ���� ��*M� X�*��. j�4 � [��I ��� ��. S��@� �A.�� � �\

    �� ��

    � ,<

    ���

    �>��

    �%�

    M [

    ��I

    ̀ ` `

    `

    `

    ��� ,

    < ��

    � �>

    ��

    �O%���4 �2�

    Dow

    nloa

    ded

    from

    eco

    r.m

    odar

    es.a

    c.ir

    at 1

    6:13

    IRD

    T o

    n T

    uesd

    ay J

    une

    15th

    202

    1

    https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html

  • ��

    ���>6M : �;�X h�i( ���� !� �\;���6 �8+6

    ���>6S :���C�� <6 � �;�X h�i

    ���>6j :�" �� ���� � ��� .�H N;� !;�5� ^'�

    ���>6V :�\;���6 � ��� .�H N;� !;�5� ^'�

    m(b(��6 � %�>A� N� .��n��� ��� ���\�

    X&��5$� 6��� +�)�� � �#M ����. ��k%� �.� �! X& ���� ��� ������� ����� �. ��� � +���� ��

    � ��@� 6@.�� T���D J�� �� 7Q$�� . � 7�2 �D��� �Q\$G� X&�O �)OLS ( 7��� ��f ̀ce�4� 7�2 �����. .

    X&��5$� . &���4< �>��?X����� :�� ^&� W%! /#� � �%�M [��I ?��� ,< �� �$�R ����� �$0.�� X&��5$�

    # ���� T��F� �� �N$�� X&��5$� ���� �� ?�&� t�@%� X��.4 � ��� X#N<2 �. �� � �! ���� 6��� �R X

    �� T�2 ?�%%RX#$��� ?�\

  • ��

    ��X&���4< �>�� ���@� X��. ��% )X�#2 (��� ,< ���? �%�)& /#� h�\>D �� 7�Q$�� . 7��C �& �%�)& ,��$�

    ^&� �&) ��.�Ic (��� �$��C ���� �0��� ���� ��� ,< . � 7�2 �;�

    � X�#2 ���4< ^� �%�)& ,��$� � .

    o(����� ^3 .�H N;� !;�5� l��� :)& ,��$� �.0D ��O4�� �%�^&� X& W%! � ^� ,��$� �. /�0��

    ��� 7�2 �$��C �k4 �� ����� /R 7��C W%! �%�)& ,��$� +��%U �. X�#2 ���4< ^� �%�)&.

    p (.�R �;�� K�� �>� : 7�2 ^��Q� �%�. (�! T.���] � �%�. (�! T.� )M �� �. �\RGDP : �@��� �\

  • ��

    �� @� ��� X& �� ?�%$0& X�� ����] /& m; ] �R 7��. ���C . ��� �� �L�C� �@�M �& �� ��� � ����� ���5� �4��

    ���� ���� +ZR �N$�� X&��5$�? X�N$�� X&��5$� ��D4 �� �FG.�� ��� �� – �U�$M� /& ���&����� . ��� T�2 �O � �� ?����� ����� � ��� �. � �! ���� 6��� ����. X��.

    ��� 7�2 �$��C �k4 �� ��� 6��> �. X����� ���! :�� ^&� W%! �%�)& �;04 /#� ,��$�:

    @��( �� lD � �����6�D �8+6: � ����. X��. . X&���4< �>�� ��5$� ?���� ����� ��@I� �. � �! ���� ��

    �\

    f`ce �2. �� ��� y�2 �. ) 7��� )$4��! T�� ?�4��� �� �� �*&� .

    . X�N$�� �2� H�� ?&����� ��O4�� (��)�� ��M� " �� �3�� &���4< ��. X�$F�. X����� �\>� �4 ?�%R" �*. �M�� .

    �*�� X�$F*�. ���4< ���@� � �$��C ���� X��H. =A� �� )�4 ��� ,< &����� (��)�� . 7���& �;04 ��� ,< �� 7�Q$��

    �� ���� +� �4��C . %���4 �2� j�4 (��)�� ���� �� ��� �k$4� T.� �3�$4 )�4 �O . �3�$4 �O%���4 �2� (��)�� �R 34� ��

    �� �$Q4 X&����� (��)�� � � � �� �G� �2� �*� ?�0*�4 �*���� /R 7��C �Q4 �. �R �� �>< �@���� ��0� ?�2.

    �� �%R . ����� � 7�#. j�4 �. ��5$� ��� 6����5� :D ��U �� ����.%. ?��� ��� �. X��PC �*��� X��P*C��� ��0�

    ��. �&��< ���0� :@$2� � �� �� �. � �! . /*R 7��*C �*��< 6��� �. E��� ���� �� �$F. � �! ��0;4� X#$��� ��

    �� �� ����� �� �3%� ���� X&���4< �;04 (��)�� �. � ���PC ��2 . $4 �����3 ����*� 6�k$4� �R E�� � �@� �� X��C

    & �� �%�. (�! T.��� ��V� )�4 ?�%R �� v

    / ��2 .

    o(�;�X h�i

    Dow

    nloa

    ded

    from

    eco

    r.m

    odar

    es.a

    c.ir

    at 1

    6:13

    IRD

    T o

    n T

    uesd

    ay J

    une

    15th

    202

    1

    https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html

  • ��

    �%�M [��I ?����� ����� �. � �! ���� ��� ����. X��.c (GINI) u *<4 �*� �� X*&��5$� �� �@.� 6��> �.

    ����D �\ �. :

    GINI=455.8+4.7*LOG(GDPM76)+4.99*LOG(M2/GDPM76) - 0.47*UNRA -0.34TREND

    (5.4) (2.0) (- 2.9) (-1.9) (-3.1)

    R2=0.70 DW=2.1 F-statistic=15.5

    ���3� X�.��.4 u<2 . ����D �� �� /��$0� �A.�� " ���� X�N*$�� �*2� �*� �� X�.��.*4 (��)�� �. ��R� . �*L�C�

    ���� ����� �KA. 6����5� �. 7�2� X��� 6@ A� �$Q4 X&����� ���&� �. �M�� . �3�$4 ��� �� �4��� +�� �� �� �

    �0�4 �k$4� �� ��� X�N$�� �2� �� . �$F�. (��)�� �� �*���� �$F�. )R��� . ?�� �� �� �NGF� =A� X��� �. �O%���4

    ��� 7���& �@�M . �*� +F4 �%�M [��I . ��� �%@� � � �k$4� T.� ��] �A.�� X���. j�4 �*&� . �*3�$4 ��*%L �� X�

    �� �*2� E*O%& �*. X�N$����] X& E)�4�� ���� �� ����� /R X#&��C�� � �� �$��D X#$��� J�$0C �. +���

    ��� �;04 X���..

    p(l��� � ^3 ����� �� �����6�D �8+6 !;�5�

    X����� ���! ^&� W%! �� X�#2 X&���4< �%�)& /#� ,��$�)(FC �R ��� �N<2 /*& � �*���� ����� /&

    ���� �. �� �� ��� . �O%��*�4 ?�*\Df`cec� ��� 7�2 �V��� T�z �:

    FC = 103 -5.4*LOG(GDPM76) + 2.4*(DUM5769*LOG(GDPM76)) (3.4) (-5.2) (4.4) – 2.8*LOG(M2) + 3.3*LOG(CPIF76) – 1.2*DUM57 + [AR(1)=0/3] (-4.3) 4.9) (-2.7) (-2.3)

    R2=0.78 DW=1.99 F-statistic=11.6

    . ����� . X#&��C ?�O%���4 (��)�� � X�N$�� �2� :;4� �. � 7�*2 �����*

  • ��

    #$*��� 6�*� 7��R � 6���%\. �� X�N*$�� X ��*� �*� �� �*���� X�.��.*4 � �*�� ,���*2 ��0*� W%*! �� T���*D

    ������ ����� �%���� ?+���� �N$�� �$<� �M��. �R?�%&� ?X��PC �*R ���. *&���4< �*����� J��� �� �*��5� �\K0*� �

    7p�� ���&� �4��� X�.

    7��U ��0� �� T��F� ���. X#&��C �� ���� X&���4< �� X� �$*2�� /]�*�\U �*R ��*#&��C �� �*O�� ��0� � �%&�

    �4��� ��R4 ����� ?T52 . #4� ���< 6��� +��. ���! �O�� 6�;U �. �*�� �*�� 7��*R /R*D ���4*< �*. �� . �*�$ �� #%� #$��� ��� �R ��34� �.3�� � :5$2� ?��R ����� � �*. :*D ��*U �� a*QD

    ��3%�. �@�M ���< 6���.

    :�! (G. �� b;��� :4R ���$�#�– HR ? �%@������ ��� �� �>�N< (G. X��PC���. HR ��*� �� 7�*#. j�4 �

    ��� � �! (G. . �� :�! �@��� XI�� . HR �I�U ? b;��� ��� X�@. ��0� �2. . 4� ���� �� � �! ��0; �4��� /*&

    �*�� X��*. �\52 X#$>�� �3�� ���� �� /& � 6��;$U� �. ���� 7��C ���$�� ,���2 ��;#. � 7�#. j�4 (&R ���� ��

    ���C ��� +�2 ���� �. �3%� ?7��C. �*� ?�@��� ����� �. +� �Q%� 6���� � E��� (��)�� . �O�� l�� �� �*k$4� +��*�

    �5� . �R �2��� � ���C ���� ��� �� �$F�. ���� 7��C ��@I� ?����� ����� ,���2 .:4R ���$�#� �*��� X��PC��

    ��� ,���2 ��;#. �. � �!? �. ��� ����� ,��$� ��� & . 6�*� 7*��8 �� �*���� �*���� �8 9�� ��� :�;� . �3�$4 ���

    ��. �&��< =�> ?�4�. �..

    � ��%q�& �� � �! ��� � �� �4��� �R X���4 �R�F� j�4 (��)�� ����)�4 �� �*R �4��C�*R ��*. �� ����D �)�$��

    �2. �$2�� :;4� �. ���� ����� X��. �� ���� 7��R ��%� ?�4�����

  • ��

    �%�M [��I ?��� ,< ��� X&���4< �>�� T�2 �O � �� [ � �� ����� ����� �. � �! ���� 6��� ����.

    ���! :�� ^&� W%! �%�)& �;04 /#� ,��$� ��� +F4 X����� 6��*� (&*8 � X�.��.*4 ���F*� �O%���4 �R �&�

    �3�$4 ��%L ?���� 7���#. ���� "&���4< �;04 ���< ?)�4 � E��� �. �O%���4 (��)�� /��$0� � �;_� ��� �. �M�� . X�

    7�#. �*�� �k$4� T.� ����� ,���2 �� ��H. ����� . X#&��C �$F�. X�%� . �� T*>D W�*$4 �*k4 ���*� X�*O � �����*.

    �� ��� ���F� �. �3%� �� �� (��)�� �R ��� +� X��C ���C . "#N*<2 ��H. (F8 ��G. �k$4� T.� ��] �3�$4 ���

    ����� ����� "�.��.4 �. �;04 ��� ) &����� ��O4�� �2� �. �;04 "��P! (F8 . �0��� ��c ( �$��� :D ��U �� �

    �� �2� 6��� +��. �2. . +� ����� E)�4�� � "�N$�� �2� �� �$Q4 X&����� [ ] (�4) �*%�)& "��P*! ��*� "*&

    +� J�$0C �� � �� ( �*�� �\K0*� ��� T���U ���$�#� �� ?��� �2� �� �� E��� J�$0C +� T>D �8 . �*C� ��*%�� ��

    ����� �. � �! ���� "&�4��! /�~� ?�2. ����� ����� � ��� ��;#. l�& X�N*$�� �2� �%���� �� :5$2� � "��PC

    �� 6���I �.� . E��� :�$%8 ) �$.�� X#$� @� J�$0C ���� �� Z_� ( :5$2� +��� �. �M�� ?�2� �� �� "#FG. ����

    �� �R ��� ��#$��� �\�M �� ?����� ����� "�.��.4 � ��� �F�4 +��8 v

    )�4 � �N$�� i\$G� 7�*#. �� �4��� "�*%�

    �C�2. ��� "�N$�� �2� �� ���� 7�.

    �� �� �%�M [��I �. X���. j�4 �k$4� T.� ��] ��� ���*! X*#&��C �� �* �� �$�*�D X#$��� J�$0C �. +���

    �� �\�U �$Q4 ����� ��� �. �R X����� ��*;#. �*#M �� ����*� ,���2 �� X�N$����] X& E)�4�� [ � �� � ?���C

    ?+����. ��@I��� �$2�PC ��M� �. ��� �;04 ?��2.

    . �@�M �� �� +��� (��)�� �#M �� [�%� X#$��� zG�� ?��%�� ��� X%;� �� �$F�. 7�Q$��T���U�� ��

    �\�� �R �2�� �k$4� +����.� . �%@� +��. ���

    �2 �&��< �$#. m��) � ����� ����� �R �0�4? �� �R ��� X����� �. �;04 ���� ����� �>�� (&R E�#Q� �. #%� ��\.

    �4�����

  • ��

    9-Adelman, Irma & Sherman, Robinson (1988) “Macroeconomic Adjustment &

    Income Distribution , Alternative Models Applied Economies “ Journal of

    Development Economics , Vol. 29 , No. 1 , PP. 23-44.

    10-Agenor, P. R. (1998), “Stabilization Policies, Poverty And The Labor Market“,

    mimeo, IMF and World Bank.

    11-Agenor P. R. and Hoffimaister A. W. (1997), “Money Wages And Inflation in

    Middle– Income Developing Countries “, IMF Working Paper, December.

    12-Alexander W. E. and Balino J. T. and Enoch C. (1995), The Adoption Of Indirect

    Instruments Of Monetary Policy , IMF Washington DC, June.

    13-Atkinson, T. (1975),“The Distribution of Wealth in Britain in the 1960s - the Estate

    Duty Method Re-examined”, in The Personal Distribution (ed. J Smith), National Bureau

    of Economic Research.

    14-Blackwood,D . L. & R. G. Lynch (1994)“ The Measurement of Inequality &

    Poverty : A Policy Marker’s Guide to the Literature “ World Development, Vol. 23,

    No. 4 , PP. 567-578.

    15-Barro R. (1978), “Unanticipated Money Output And The Price Level In The United

    States “, Journal Of Political Economy, Vol. 86, pp. 549-80.

    16-Barro Robert (1977), “Unanticipated Money Growth And Unemployment In The

    United States “ , American Economic Review, Vol. 67, pp. 101-115.

    17-Bulir A. (1998), “Income Inequality : Does Inflation Matter? “IMF Working Paper,

    January.

    18-Capie F, (1998) The Long-run Relationship Between Money and Prices Money Prices

    and the Real Economy (eds: Wood, G) Elgar.

    19-Cardoso, Eliana (1992), “ Inflation And Poverty “, NBER, Working Paper, No. 4006,

    March.

    20-Datt, G. and Ravallion M. (1996), “Why Have Some Indian States Done Better Than

    Others At Reducing Rural Poverty? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1594,

    April .

    21-Datt, Gaurav & Martin Ravallion (1992), “Groth & Poverty Redistribution

    Components of Change in Poverty Measures, A Decomposition With Application to

    Brazil & India in the 1980s, Journal of Development Economics , Vol. 38 ,No. 2, PP.

    275-295.

    22-Domac I. (1998),“ The Main Determinants Of Inflation In Albania“ ,Washington DC,

    the World Bank.

    23-Dornbusch R. and Frenkel J. A. (1973),“Inflation And Growth: Alternative

    Approaches “, Journal Of Money, Credit And Banking, pp.141- 560.

    24-Easterly W. (1999), “ Inflation And The Poor “, IMF and World Bank.

    25-Esterly, W. and Stanley Fischer, (2001), "Inflation and the Poor" Journal of Money,

    Credit, and Banking, , Part 1, 159-178.

    26-Fry, Maxwell.(1995), Money, Interest, and Banking in Economic Development, (2nd).

    Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

    27-Garibaldi P. (1997), “The Asymmetric Effects Of Monetary Policy On Job Creation

    And Destruction “, IMF Working Paper, April.

    Dow

    nloa

    ded

    from

    eco

    r.m

    odar

    es.a

    c.ir

    at 1

    6:13

    IRD

    T o

    n T

    uesd

    ay J

    une

    15th

    202

    1

    https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html

  • ��

    28-Gertler M. and Gilchrist S. (1994), “Monetary Small Manufacturing Firms“, Quarterly

    Journal Of Economics, Vol. 109, pp. 309-340.

    29-Horowitz A. W. and Weinhold (1998), “Household Characteristics And Income

    Inequality During Inflationary Periods: Recent Evidence From Suriname“, World

    Development, Vol. 26 , No. 2 , pp. 297 – 306 .

    30-Huda, S. & PK. Md Motiur Rohman (1992), “On Some Measurements Of Poverty

    “ Indian Economic Journal , Vol. 39 , No. 4 , PP. 57-65.

    31-.Joyce J. P.(1991), “All Examination Of Objectives Of Monetary Policy In Four

    Developing Economies “, World Development, Vol. 19 , No. 6, pp. 705 -709.

    32-Knight, J.B. (1979), “Devaluation & Income Distribution in Less Developed

    Economics “, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 28 , No. 2, PP. 208-227.

    33-Mayer TH. And Sheffrin S. (1995), Fiscal And Monetary Policy, The International

    Library Of Critical Writing in economics, An Elgar Refrence Collection

    34-Meltzer H. (1995), “Credit Transmission Processes A Monetarist Perspective“,

    Journal Of Economic Perspectives , Vol. 9, pp. 49-72.

    35-Mishkin F. S. (2001) , The Economics Of Money , Banking And Financial Markets ,

    6th

    Edition , Boston : Addison Wesley.

    36-Myint, H. (1971), Economic theory and under developed country, Oxford university

    press.

    37-Park, Y.(1970), The variability of velocity: An international comparison, IMF Staff

    paper, No.6.

    38-Obstfeld, M. (1993), Exchange Rate and the sterilisation problem: Germany, 1975-

    1981, European Economic Review 21, pp. 161-189.

    39-Perotti R. (1994), “Income Distribution And Investment“, European Economic

    Review, Vol. 38, pp. 827 – 835.

    40-Rezend, F. (1998), "Prospect for Brazil's Economy," International Affairs, 74, 3,

    pp.563-576.

    41-Romer, C. and Romer, D. (1998), “Monettary Policy And Well – Being Of The Poor

    “NBER Working Paper, No. 6793, November.

    42-Savvides A. (1998), “Inflation And Monetary Policy In Selected West And Central

    African Countries“, World Development, Vol. 26 , No. 5, pp. 805 -827.

    43-Sarel M.(1997), “How Microeconometric Factors Affect Income Distribution: The

    Cross – Country Evidence “ , IMF Working Paper, November.

    44-Siegfried N. A. (2000), “Monetary Policy And Investment In Germany,

    Microeconometric Evidence For A German Credit Channel“, Hamburg University,

    Department of Economics, August.

    45-Soltow, L. and Van Zanden, J.L. (1998), Income and Wealth inequality in Nethlands,

    16th

    -20th

    century, Het Spinhuis: Amesterdam.

    46-Taylor Lance & Frank J. Lysy (1979), “Vanishing Income Redistributions“,

    Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 6, No. 1, PP. 11-29.

    47-Wood,G. (1998), Money, price and real economy, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

    Dow

    nloa

    ded

    from

    eco

    r.m

    odar

    es.a

    c.ir

    at 1

    6:13

    IRD

    T o

    n T

    uesd

    ay J

    une

    15th

    202

    1

    https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html

  • ��

    The Efects of Monetary Policy on Poverty and Income Distribution

    ( the case of Iran)

    Soheila Parvin & Ehsan Taherifard1

    Absteract Monetary policy is one of the most potent tools for managing the economy, so there is

    useful qustion to ask if the monetary policy can be used as tool to reduce poverty. On

    account of rising inequality, for a given level of income, leades to greater poverty, is also

    should be mentioned. The aime of this paper is to empricaly investigate the role of

    monetary policy in relation to reduce poverty and income inequality in Iran.

    Most of existing literature on monetary policy and povrety focuses on short run effects.

    Monetary policy can affect output, unemployment and inflationin. If poverty and

    inequality respond to these variables, monetary policy can affect the poor conditions.

    Also inflation and unanticipated inflation can redistribute income from cerditors to

    debtors, so monetary policy can affect distribution through this chanel.

    This paper examins the effect of monetary policy on poverty and inequality in Iran

    through the regression equations during 1976 -2005. The results show that monetary

    policy can not act as a poverty alleviation policy, and has opposit direction effects.

    Expansionary monetary policy aimed to finance government budget deficit, which is

    associated to expand demand side of economy, which its result is higher inflation.

    Furthermore there is no link between monetary policy and interest rate, so these policeies

    can not affect investment and empolymen, they have no supply side effects. The

    monetary policy most directly affects average inflation. So the natural result of long run

    inflation is more inequality. This leades to greater poverty.

    JEL calssification No. E52, I32, O15, E31.

    1 - Respectively, Associate Professor of Economics at Allameh Tabatabaee University & graduate in economics at Macroeconomics Bureau of Management and Planning Organization.

    Dow

    nloa

    ded

    from

    eco

    r.m

    odar

    es.a

    c.ir

    at 1

    6:13

    IRD

    T o

    n T

    uesd

    ay J

    une

    15th

    202

    1

    https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-9740-fa.html