Tantangan Ekonomi Global Oktober 2015

Tantangan dan potensi Indonesia 2016

Kresnayana Yahya Email: [email protected] Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com

kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 1

mailto:[email protected]

Realitas 2015


World challenge

New orientation


Rebalancing is needed along two dimensions

Private demand

Demand from external surplus economies

Public demand Demand from external deficit economies


Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Data, July 2015 kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 6


QE increase reserve account

• Example: US Fed :

sejak 2008 sudah $

14 Triliun

• Di gelontorkan

• Sekarang waktunya

dollar ditarik pulang

• Dan di masukkan

kembali

Growth of world gross product, 2008–2016*

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Data, 2015; UN/DESA *Growth rate for 2014 is partially estimated; rates for 2015 and 2016 are forecast kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 8

Penyesuaian dan transisi

• Saatnya Indonesia membangun

Infrastruktur di luar jawa dengan APBN

dan di Jawa dengan penyertaan Investor

• Konsolidasi utama : Maritim dan

Transportasi

• Peningkatan kemandirian pangan

• Fokus pada penyediaan manusia

berkualitas: pendidikan dan kesehatan

• Menumbuhkan Ekonomi Kreatif, Pariwisata kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 10

World economic growth 2016

US 3.4% JP 1.3%

S. AF 5.1%

World 4.9%

CIS 4.2%

ME/NA

5.1%

LAm 3.9%

RoA 8.6%

EU 2.1%

International Macroeconomic Policy

situation

• Macroeconomic developments depend on macro

policies:

– Conventional (the policy rate tool, the money supply)

and unconventional monetary policy such as, ZIRP

(Zero Interest Rate Policy), QE (Quantitative Easing),

CE (credit easing), FG (Forward Guidance), Negative

Interest Rates, Liquidity Support of Banks and Non-

Banks

– Conventional (tax and government spending) and

unconventional fiscal policy (bailouts and backstop of

banks, households, corporations and other state

guarantees for economic agents kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 13

• PORTS – Container mega hub

• Medan –Jakarta-Surabaya-Makasar-

Bitung – Free port, Service

and Industrial port declared as a

“Free Port”

• – Leisure Port

• – Port-related

industries and Port City

l – Commercial and

fisheries

• Kankasanthurei and Point Pedro –

Regional ports

• Six international airport

• Modernisation and the Runway at Upgrading of domestic airports

• as a regional logistics and services hub

• IT literacy and internet access for all

• Creation of knowledge-based jobs

• Promotion of research and innovation

• as an “education” destination Accredited foreign universities

• Develop renewable energy sources

• Oil exploration and production –

(Mannar, Cauvery, Southern waters)

• Develop oil trade related ancilliary

services including gas

• as a top centre in the region for commercial

services

• Growth of ports and tourism will

catalyse the development of

commercial sector

• Industry, Manufacturing

• Arrivals target of 15

mn by 2020

• Earnings from Tourism

– develop tourism HUB

The Economic Diversification Programme would need to continue, based on the ‘5 Hubs ++’ concept…

14

kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015

http://www.google.lk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=i35kJEsfnrI79M&tbnid=aNP4KbGfCoAq5M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://journeytube.net/discover.html&ei=o2C9Uu_PKYqtiAemoIDIDg&bvm=bv.58187178,d.aGc&psig=AFQjCNFiX25dIkuVxoEmYVHxHX1Yu2XD1Q&ust=1388229095626825

Our vision for a sustainable economic cycle

Building growth on opportunities

More economic

opportunities

Maintain and enhance natural

environment

More participation opportunities

Higher value economic

activity

Reduce inequities

Develop strong communities

Town amenity


16


• Indonesia berpeluang menghemat penggunaan BBM khususnya dan energi umumnya, sehingga juga menekan impor dengan cukup signifikan.

• Harga energy pada umumnya turun dan beaya logistik diperkirakan makin efisien


Peta Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Daerah Triwulan II 2015

Sumber : KER BI, 2015 kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 32

PDRB per Provinsi Semester I-2015 di Wilayah Timur Indonesia

12.12

12.93

13.71

15.79

30.88

35.95

41.88

42.37

51.45

64.06

163.52

0 50 100 150 200

Maluku

Maluku Utara

Gorontalo

Sulawesi Barat

Papua Barat

Nusa Tenggara Timur

Sulawesi Tenggara

Sulawesi Utara

Sulawesi Tengah

Papua

Sulawesi Selatan

(triliun rupiah)

Nusa Tenggara Timur

Sulawesi Utara

Sulawesi Selatan

Sulawesi Barat

Sulawesi Tengah

Gorontalo

Maluku Utara

Maluku

Papua Barat

Papua

Sulawesi Tenggara

33,7%

13,2% 10,6%

8,7%

8,6%

7,4%

6,4%

3,3%

2,8%

2,7%

2,5%

Distribusi PDRB

Sumber: BPS Prov (NTT, Sulut, Sulteng, Sulsel, Sultra, Gorontalo, Sulbar, Maluku, Malut, Pabar, & Papua) 2015, diolah Enciety Business Consult kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 33

PETA INFLASI DAERAH

Sumber : KER BI, 2015 kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 34

Konsumsi

Sumber : KER BI, 2015

Konsumsi rumah tangga (RT) di triwulan II 2015 masih tumbuh melambat dibanding periode

triwulan sebelumnya.

Konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh sebesar 4,72% (yoy) di triwulan II 2015, lebih rendah

dibanding realisasi di triwulan I 2015 yang tumbuh sebesar 4,96% (yoy). Kondisi ini dipengaruhi

oleh meningkatnya harga BBM pada akhir triwulan I dan cenderung melemahnya daya beli

masyarakat sebagaimana terindikasi dari hasil Survei Konsumen (SK). kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 35

Konsumsi


Penyaluran kredit konsumsi bahkan tercatat melambat hingga di titik terendahnya

selama 3 tahun terakhir yakni 9,95% (yoy).


Produksi Industri Kendaraan Bermotor


Pertumbuhan kredit kendaraan bermotor juga melambat cukup dalam hingga 5,78% (yoy),

sejalan dengan rendahnya penjualan sepeda motor dan kendaraan roda 4 yang hanya tumbuh -

18% dan -25% secara tahunan.


Investasi


Kinerja Investasi PMA

Investasi di triwulan II 2015 tercatat

melambat karena terbatasnya investasi

swasta maupun pemerintah.

Investasi triwulan II 2015 tercatat

sebesar 4,70%, melambat dari 5,07% di

triwulan I 2015.

Kinerja Investasi PMDN

Data BKPM menunjukkan terjadinya penurunan

realisasi investasi swasta domestik hingga

7,40% (yoy), sementara peningkatan realisasi

investasi swasta asing masih terbatas.


Perkembangan Investasi


Likert Scale Investasi dan perkiraannya

Indikator Perekonomian Mitra Dagang (PMI)

Masih rendahnya anggaran belanja modal

pemerintah baik pusat maupun daerah turut

berdampak pada kinerja investasi Jawa.

Demikian halnya dengan impor barang modal

yang tercatat menurun cukup dalam hingga

21% (yoy) pada Juni 2015.


Kinerja Ekspor Jawa


Kinerja ekspor kawasan Jawa di triwulan II 2015 tercatat melambat terutama dipengaruhi oleh masih

lemahnya permintaan global.

Ekspor Jawa pada triwulan II 2015 tumbuh sebesar 1,77%, melambat dibandingkan triwulan I 2015 yang

tumbuh 4,83%.


Kinerja Impor Jawa


Pada triwulan II 2015, impor turun cukup signifikan dibandingkan triwulan sebelumnya, khususnya impor

barang antara, barang konsumsi dan barang modal.

Impor mengalami penurunan hingga -4,85% (yoy), setelah tumbuh 0,23% pada triwulan sebelumnya.


Business tendency third quarter 2015


The Opportunity of Asian Markets

Developing Asia will account for 65% of global energy demand growth –

four times the combined growth of Latin America and Africa

Global Perspective:

Sources: BP Energy Outlook 2035; OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2014

kresnayana yahya, oktober

2015

43

Asia’s Energy Mix (Regional Level)

Source: “Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035,” Asian Development Bank. October 14, 2014.


2015

44

Country and Sub-Regional Views

While China is looking to shift its mix from coal to gas, SE Asia will see the reverse.

Meanwhile: uncertainty in Japan continues to impact markets.

China

SE Asia

Japan

Sources: BP Energy Outlook 2035; OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook Special Report: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook; Nature


2015

45

WHAT IS AT STAKE?

• Increasing access to electricity and to energy overall is vital to sustaining the region’s economic growth.

• Yet if current trends continue, the Asia-Pacific’s CO2 emissions are likely to more than triple by 2050 (ADB).

• Countries are looking for supplies that best provide for three core needs –

economic security, environmental security, and geopolitical security.

“Climate change will cut agricultural

crop yields and hike food prices –

every 10% rise will push another 64

million Asians into poverty.”

Source: “Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035,” ADB. October 14, 2014.


2015

46

Asia’s Search for Energy Supply Security • Declining energy self-sufficiency is a

regional trend. By 2020, Asia will be a net importer of fossil fuels.

• Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are already 100% import dependent for oil, gas, and coal.

• Indonesia is seeing domestic demand rise steadily, and is looking for strategies to sustain the role of energy in promoting its economic growth.

• China is a top global producer of both oil and gas, yet rising demand means that import dependence will climb through 2035 (oil: 80%; gas: 40%).

• Australia, Russia, others continue as regional suppliers, yet overall demand pushes Asian consumers to also look outside of the region.

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035


2015

47

Index for evaluating Energy Security A View from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy

• The degree to which stable fuel procurement is possible in the face of contingent/unforeseen risks that impact supplies

• The extent to which an environment is in place that allows the fuel to be stably supplied

• Specific variables: • Past production record of supplier

country • Conflict frequency of supplier country • Disruption risk of transport routes • Overall portfolio of the importing

country - diversification of suppliers, transportation routes and fuel mix

EVALUATING ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES


2015

48

KEY PRIORITIES & QUESTIONS FOR ASIA Strengthening Markets for

Energy and Environmental Security

• Expand energy access to the 700 million

people in Asia still without electricity

• Develop and strengthen infrastructure to

avoid energy becoming a bottleneck to

economic growth

• Buffer against geopolitical and market

shocks that can disrupt access to supplies

or increase price volatility

• Address rising environmental concerns

with air quality and pollution

• Pairing technology and policy to improve

energy consumption

What role can U.S. exports play in

supporting these goals?


2015

49

GROWING SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN OIL

U.S. oil production has hit a 40+ year high, and crude inventories are the highest on record

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, The Wall Street Journal.

Total U.S. energy production & consumption in the Reference case, 1980-2040 (quadrillion Btu)

U.S. net petroleum product imports in four cases, 2005-40 (million barrels per day)


2015

50

What is business

Business – whether they make dog food or software - don’t sell products, they sell solutions


Disruption

• All disruption starts with

introspection • You have a choice : pursue your dreams or

be hired by someone else to helpthem fulfil

their dreams

• True disruption alters a

market or system forever


Entrepreneur

“simply those who understand that there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity and are able to turn both to their advantage”

Will you do it?


Growth strategy

• Cashflow

• Market share development

• Renewing process


The Boston Consulting Group’s

Growth-Share Matrix

20%- 18%- 16%- 14%- 12%- 10%- 8%- 6%- 4%- 2%- 0 M

ark

et

Gro

wth

Ra

te

10x 4x 2x 1.5x 1x Relative Market Share

.5x .4x .3x .2x .1x

Dogs 8

7

3 ? Question marks

? 2

1

Cash cows

6

Stars

5

4


61

Why The Third Industrial Revolution?

• First Industrial Revolution powered by the wheels of power run by steam.

• Second Industrial Revolution thrived on great advances on automation & mobility.

• The Third Industrial Revolution will be propelled by the power of connectivity, power of mind and energy farming, mass entrepreneurship.

There will be no poor, no hunger and no unemployment …

in the third industrial revolution. kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015

62

First Industrial Revolution .: Powered by the wheels of power run by steam.


63

Second Industrial Revolution .: Thrived on great advances on automation & mobility.


64

The Third Industrial Revolution .: Propelled by the power of connectivity, power of mind and energy farming, mass entrepreneurship.

.: connectivity :. .: energy farming :.

.: power of mind :. .: mass entrepreneurship :. kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015

EE141

65

Consumer

Computer

Telecom

Medical

Aerospace

Transportation

USA

Soft

war

e, A

pp

lica

tion

s

Product Life Cycle

applies to every

product & service

Software base development


Mencapai 13 400 tanggal 9/10/2015

Persentase dan Andil Perubahan (IHPB) Bahan Bangunan/Konstruksi Indonesia Agustus 2015

Sumber: BPS Indonesia kresnayana yahya, oktober 2015 67

Persentase dan Andil Perubahan (IHPB) Indonesia Non Migas Agustus 2015


Persentase Perubahan (IHPB) Menurut Kelompok Bahan Bangunan/Konstruksi Indonesia Agustus 2015


Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi Jilid III

3. Penyederhanaan izin pertanahan untuk kegiatan penanaman modal

1. Kementerian ATR/BPN merevisi Permen Nomor 2 Tahun 2015 tentang Standar Pelayanan dan Pengaturan Agraria, Tata Ruang, dan Pertanahan dalam Kegiatan Penanaman Modal.

2. Beberapa substansi pengaturan baru ini mencakup beberapa hal, seperti: a. Pemohon mendapatkan informasi tentang ketersediaan lahan (semula 7 hari menjadi 3 jam). b. Seluruh permohonan didaftarkan sebagai bentuk kepastian bagi pemohon terhadap ketersediaan dan rencana penggunaan lahan. Surat akan dikeluarkan dalam waktu 3 jam. c. Kelengkapan perizinan prinsip: - Proposal, pendirian perusahaan, hak atas tanah menjadi persyaratan awal untuk dimulainya kegiatan lapangan. - Ada persyaratan yang dapat menyusul sampai dengan sebelum diterbitkannya keputusan tentang hak penggunaan lahan.

Sumber : Kontan

Pergerakan Rupiah 2015

Sumber : Bloomberg

Rencana Belanja Negara 2016

Sumber : Kementerian Keuangan

3. Penyederhanaan izin pertanahan untuk

kegiatan penanaman modal

Proyeksi Inflasi s/d 2016

Sumber : SEKI- BI & CEIC; 2015

Laporan Inflasi (Indeks Harga konsumen) 2015

6.96%

6.29% 6.38%

6.79%

7.15%

7.26% 7.26% 7.18%

6.83%

Januari2015

Februari2015

Maret2015

Apr-15 Mei 2015 Juni 2015 Juli 2015 Agustus2015

Sep-15

Sumber : Laporan BI 2015

Sumber : SEKI- BI & CEIC; 2015

Perkiraan Indikator Ekonomi s/d 2016

Sumber: Bappenas – Oxford Economic Model (Baseline Scenario)

Perkembangan Dan Perkiraan Ekspor Dunia s/d 2019

Lab testing

R&D+i projects

Promote the use of

standards

Product development

Technical information and

Technological watch

Training

Technical Assistance

Technological Transfer

Innovation

R&D+i

Productivity and Quality

improvement

Enterprise

Value Chain

Logistics management and ITC

Role and Services in Consumer Industry

MA R K E T

Quality System

Pilot Plants

kresnayana yahya,

pengembanganindustri september 2015 77

Asset

Management

Industry

Forces

Technology

Forces Of Change

NOTICE: This slide is part of a presentation by Morgan Stanley and is intended to be viewed as part of that presentation. The presentation is based on information

generally available to the public and does not contain any material, nonpublic information. The presentation has been prepared solely for information

purposes, is not a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument and has not been updated since it was originally presented June 26, 2001.

Asset

Management

Industry

Technology

Changing

Customers

Forces Of Change

Forces




Asset

Management

Industry

Technology

Changing

Customers

Forces Of Change

Market

Maturation

Forces




Asset

Management

Industry

Technology

Changing

Customers

Increased

Competition

Forces Of Change

Market

Maturation

Forces




Asset

Management

Industry

Changes

Power Shifting to Distributors

Losing Control of the Customer

Greater Mobility of Assets

Ubiquity of Products & Services

Performance Transparency

Price Transparency

Commodization of the Mutual Fund

Slower Organic Growth

Increased Pressure On Margins

Forces Of Change

Technology

Changing

Customers

Increased

Competition

Market

Maturation

Forces




The Hypernet

2010

2

00

0

INTERNET HYPERNET

Devices

Standards

Bandwidth

Fragmentation/

Integration

Services

Virtualization

Asset

Management

Industry

Changes

Power Shifting to Distributors

Losing Control of the Customer

Greater Mobility of Assets

Ubiquity of Products & Services

Performance Transparency

Price Transparency

Commodization of the Mutual Fund

Slower Organic Growth

Increased Pressure On Margins

Forces Of Change

Technology

Changing

Customers

Increased

Competition

Market

Maturation

Forces




Foxconn/China:

1,000,000 robots in next 3

years

Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

1

“The root of our problem is not that we’re in a Great Recession

or a Great Stagnation, but rather that we are in the early

throes of a Great Restructuring. Our

technologies are racing ahead, but our skills and organizations

are lagging behind.”

Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

1

Strategic Areas

Green Innovation

Life Innovation

Asia

Tourism-

Oriented Nation

& Local

Revitalization

Science and

Technology

IT Oriented

Nation

Employment

& Human

Resources

Financial

Sector

New Growth Strategy 2010 – 2020

88

…And Affected by the

Development of Organizations

Compete

Collaborate

Control

Create

Where is Your Organization on the growth curve? www.competingvalues.com kresnayana yahya,


The Innovation Cycle for SME’s

Lab Tests Training Legislative Surveillance

Quality Product & Systems Certification

Technological Audits Prototyping

Business Intelligence

Product Development

R&D

kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015

891

Why is AM(additive manufacturing) becoming

so important to manufacturers

(I want to be a user!)

So where are the

opportunities to get involved in the consumer 3D printing

space?

The 3DP Ecosystem

Machines

Materials

Products Design

solutions Data

management

Integrated solutions

Front end software

Machines

Materials

Products Design

solutions Back-end software


Communications

Managing Change

Leadership Coaching

Commitment

Technology

Change

The Human Side of Change

Mission/Vision Strategies

kresnayana yahya,



95


96


97


99

“Mengangkat Indonesia menjadi negara maju dan merupakan kekuatan 12 besar dunia di tahun 2025 dan 8 besar dunia pada tahun 2045 melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan”

(Sumber: Master Plan Percepatan dan Perluasan

Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia 2011– 2025 )

2010 PDB ~ US$ 700 Milyar

Pendapatan/kap US$ 3,000 (2010)

Terbesar ke-17 besar dunia

2025

PDB: 3,8 – 4,5 Trilyun US$ Pendapatan/kap: 13.000 – 16.100 US$ Terbesar ke-12 dunia Proyeksi KEN Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 14,900 (high income country)

2045

PDB ~US$ 16.6 Trilyun

Prediksi Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 46,900

Diprediksi menjadi terbesar ke-7 atau ke-8 dunia*)

100 tahun kemerdekaan

Pencapaian Visi 2025 dan 2045 memerlukan penyiapan generasi yang mampu berperan aktif dalam kegiatan pembangunan. Edukasi, Investasi dan Infrastruktur kresnayana yahya,

pengembanganindustri

september 2015

100

Creative Economy Creative Economy

Integration Experience

Inn

ov

ation

Experience

Experience

Community

Reflection

Community

Trend pekerjaan masa depan

• Makin banyak pekerjaan bukan rutin job, makin banyak non rutin work . Kerja profesionals makin entrepreneurial

• Wujud pekerjaan makin Service based berbasis Knowledge dan mengandung Problem solving

• Penghargaan tertinggi pada kemampuan Design • Menghadapi MEA , kemampuan kerja produktif

harus ditingkatkan • Creativity menjadi elemen utama dalam

peningkatan innovasi

EC - 109 © Minder Chen, 1996-2014

EC and Business Processes Seller Buyer

Co

rpo

rate

Data

bases

Provide

Info

Get

customer

Provide

info

Fulfill

order

Support

Identify

need

Find

source

Evaluate

offerings

Purchase

Operate,

Maintain,

Repair

Phone,

fax, e-mail

Web site

Newsgroups

Net

communities

Web site

EDI

Web site, phone,

fax, e-mail, e-

mailing list

Credit cards, e-cash P.O.s

Demos,

reviews

Send info

Data sheets,

catalogs, demos

Request info

Web surfing

Web searches,

web ads

Deliver soft goods electronically

Selling Process Procurement Process

Customer Feedbacks/Reviews

Dis/Re-intermediation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disintermediation



Pearson/Prentice Hall & Dr. Chen, Electronic Commerce

Government Professional

Association

Universities

Research Institutions

Manufacturers

Contractors

Suppliers

Subsuppliers

Retailers

Customers

Dealers

Content

Providers

Banks

Financial

Institutions

Logistics

Services IT Providers

Other

Exchanges

Market Maker

and Administrator

Trading

Community ( An Exchange )

The Community of an Exchange:

Information Flow and Access to Information

Manfred Bornemann: Wissensmanagement 2013

symbols

data

information

knowledge

applying

act

competency

+ syntax

+ meaning

+ context (experiences, expectations)

+ focus of application

+ strategic intent

+ act “correct”

+ uniqueness

competitive

advantage

Source: North, K. (1999): Wissensbasierte Unternehmensführung: Wertschöpfung durch Wissen. 2. Aufl., Wiesbaden: Gabler.

A staircase model of knowledge

education transformation 2015 112

115

Mental Resources

Technology

Information

Knowledge

Creativity

“Unlike material resources, information & knowledge are not lost when you give them away.” Harlan Cleveland

kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri

september 2015

116

Internet as Mental

Organization

Internet multiplies human capabilities &

extends social organization 1000-fold

Global social networking

Global access to information

Global free communication

Global transactions

The potential impact on productivity of

resources & quality of life is

incalculable kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri

september 2015

The Analytics Maturity Model

Standard Reports

Ad-Hoc Reports

Query Drill-down

Alerts

Statistical Analysis

Forecasting

Predictive Modeling

Optimization

What happened?

How many, how often?

Where exactly is the problem

What actions are needed?

Why is this happening? What opportunities are we missing?

What if these trends continue?

What will happen next?

How do we do things better?

Adapted from SAS kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015

117

Why is AM(additive manufacturing) becoming

so important to manufacturers

(I want to be a user!)

So where are the

opportunities to get involved in the consumer 3D printing

space?

The 3DP Ecosystem

Machines

Materials

Products Design

solutions Data

management


Front end software

Machines

Materials

Products Design

solutions Back-end software


Communications

Managing Change

Leadership Coaching

Commitment

Technology

Change

The Human Side of Change

Mission/Vision Strategies

kresnayana yahya,



123


124


125


127

“Mengangkat Indonesia menjadi negara maju dan merupakan kekuatan 12 besar dunia di tahun 2025 dan 8 besar dunia pada tahun 2045 melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan”

(Sumber: Master Plan Percepatan dan Perluasan

Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia 2011– 2025 )

2010 PDB ~ US$ 700 Milyar

Pendapatan/kap US$ 3,000 (2010)

Terbesar ke-17 besar dunia

2025

PDB: 3,8 – 4,5 Trilyun US$ Pendapatan/kap: 13.000 – 16.100 US$ Terbesar ke-12 dunia Proyeksi KEN Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 14,900 (high income country)

2045

PDB ~US$ 16.6 Trilyun

Prediksi Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 46,900

Diprediksi menjadi terbesar ke-7 atau ke-8 dunia*)

100 tahun kemerdekaan

Pencapaian Visi 2025 dan 2045 memerlukan penyiapan generasi yang mampu berperan aktif dalam kegiatan pembangunan. Edukasi, Investasi dan Infrastruktur kresnayana yahya,

pengembanganindustri

september 2015

128

Tantangan di Indonesia

• Pasar yang sangat besar dan sangat MUDA, median age Indonesia 26 Tahun

• Middle class economy 120 juta- 150 juta orang untuk beragam durable goods

• Tersebar di ratusan pulau dan berjarak

• Waktunya mendistribusika n kegiatan idnutry di luar Jawa

• Produk high tech dan applicationnya justru menjadi kebutuhan

• Proses adaptasi Teknologi baru jadi sangat mudah

130

Mental Resources

Technology

Information

Knowledge

Creativity

“Unlike material resources, information & knowledge are not lost when you give them away.” Harlan Cleveland

kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri

september 2015

131

Internet as Mental

Organization

Internet multiplies human capabilities &

extends social organization 1000-fold

Global social networking

Global access to information

Global free communication

Global transactions

The potential impact on productivity of

resources & quality of life is

incalculable kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri

september 2015

The Analytics Maturity Model

Standard Reports

Ad-Hoc Reports

Query Drill-down

Alerts

Statistical Analysis

Forecasting

Predictive Modeling

Optimization

What happened?

How many, how often?

Where exactly is the problem

What actions are needed?

Why is this happening? What opportunities are we missing?

What if these trends continue?

What will happen next?

How do we do things better?

Adapted from SAS kresnayana yahya, pengembanganindustri september 2015

132

Indonesia masa depan

• Kelas menengah akan mencapai 150 juta orang di 2030

• Konsumsi akan meningkat tajam setelah 2025

• Pola Industry sudah memasuki tahap integrasi dengan Internet

• Tenaga kerja terdidikmelipat dua dibanding 2015

• Peran di Asean akan makin dominan


133

Penduduk Indonesia : Young population

Sumber: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)

Indonesia Kondisi kependudukan Indonesia

Kelompok usia produktif 15-64 tahun mencapai 66 % atau 165 juta Merupakan kesempatan dan peluang konsumsi yang luar biasa besar dan laju pertumbuhannya cukup tinggi Kelompok dibawah 15 tahun yang cukup besar : 70 juta

66%

28%

6%

strategic management Indonesia 2015, kresnayana yahya

134

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10




Angka Ketergantungan

per 100 penduduk usia kerja

1971 2000 2020-2030 >2030

86 54 44 >50

100 orang

bekerja

menanggung

86

100 orang

bekerja

menangung 54

100 orang

bekerja

menanggung

44

tanggungan

meningkat karena

pesatnya

pertambahan

lansia


135

Kelo

mpok

umur

Jumlah Penduduk (juta)

Generasi 100 thn Merdeka (Usia pada tahun 2045)

Strukutur Penduduk Indonesia Tahun 2010

55-64 tahun

35-44 tahun

Periode Bonus Demografi 2005-2035

Pendidikan dan Kesehatan


Pastikan setiap anak bangsa

mendapatkan layanan


Generasi Emas 100 Tahun Indonesia Merdeka

45,972

43,724

41,529

38,501

30,730

20,026

10,808

3,376

3,853

0-9

10-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

70-74

75 +

Sumber: Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2015 (Bappenas, BPS, UNFPA 2013))

Jumlah Penduduk:

238,5 Juta orang

136

Generasi

Pemegang Kunci

Kejayaan

Indonesia

45-54 tahun


Revolusi Services :


137


138

Fenomena Baru : social media apps


139

Enrichment Plan


The most powerful Local Content

END OF SLIDES THANK YOU

Kresnayana Yahya Email: [email protected] Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com

146 Enciety Business Consult

mailto:[email protected]


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Tantangan Ekonomi Global Oktober 2015

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