Tanker Monthly Fleet Update - bancosta.com · banchero costa Sep 2018 –Tanker Monthly Fleet...

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banchero costa banchero costa research www.bancosta.com ; [email protected] Tanker Monthly Fleet Update (a review of deliveries, demo, orders, and rates) September 2018

Transcript of Tanker Monthly Fleet Update - bancosta.com · banchero costa Sep 2018 –Tanker Monthly Fleet...

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 1

banchero costa

banchero costa research

www.bancosta.com ; [email protected]

Tanker Monthly Fleet Update(a review of deliveries, demo, orders, and rates)

September 2018

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 2

Fleet Developments(deliveries, demolitions, orders)

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 3

• VLCC (Very Large Crude Carriers) 200,000+ dwt

• Suezmax 120,000-199,999 dwt

• Aframax (Uncoated) 78,000-119,999 dwt (uncoated)

• LR2 (Long Range 2) 78,000-119,999 dwt (coated)

• LR1 (Long Range 1) 60,000-77,999 dwt (coated)

• MR2 (Medium Range 2) 42,000-59,999 dwt (coated)

• MR1 (Medium Range 1) 30,000-41,999 dwt (coated)

(note1: for all sizes, includes both coated and uncoated units)

(note2: the definition of coated/uncoated refers to how a ship was built, NOT how it’s currently trading)

Our size definitions for tankers:

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 4

In 2017, we recorded the delivery of 129 crude tanker vessels over 78,000 dwt, for a total of 26.4 mln dwt. Theseincluded: 50 VLCCs (15.2 mln dwt), 51 Suezmaxes (8.0 mln dwt) and 28 uncoated Aframaxes (3.2 mln dwt). In 2018,around 150 units equivalent to 26-27 mln dwt are expected to be delivered, after assuming delivery slippages.

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Crude Tanker Deliveries + Orderbook in No. of Units - Annual(September 2018 ; only uncoated units over 78,000 dwt ; in units ; assuming 20% slippage)

Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 5

In 2017, we recorded the delivery of 138 product tankers between 30,000 dwt and 120,000 dwt, for a total of 9.2 mlndwt. These included: 38 LR2s (4.2 mln dwt), 15 LR1s (1.1 mln dwt), 63 MR2s (3.1 mln dwt) and 22 MR1s (0.8 mln dwt). In2018, around 115 units equivalent to 7-8 mln dwt are expected to be delivered, after assuming delivery slippages.

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Product Tanker Deliveries + Orderbook in No. of Units - Annual(September 2018 ; only coated units between 30,000-119,999 dwt ; in units ; assuming 20% slippage)

MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 6

In August 2018, we recorded the delivery of 8 uncoated units over 78,000 dwt, for a total of 1.5 mln dwt. Theseincluded: 2 VLCCs (0.63 mln dwt), 4 Suezmax (0.63 mln dwt), and 2 uncoated Aframaxes (0.22 mln dwt). In the first 8months of 2018, we recorded the delivery of 79 crude tankers for a total of 15.3 mln dwt, compared to 101 unitsequivalent to 20.45 mln dwt during the same period in 2017.

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Crude Tanker Deliveries in No. of Vessels - Monthly(September 2018 ; all coated and uncoated units over 78,000 dwt ; in units)

Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 7

In August 2018, we recorded the delivery of 10 product tankers, for a total of 0.6 mln dwt. These included: 2 LR2s (0.22mln dwt), 1 LR1 (0.07 mln dwt), 6 MR2s (0.30 mln dwt), and 1 MR1 (0.04 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 2018, 70product tankers were delivered totaling 4.5 mln dwt: 14 LR2s, 11 LR1s, 35 MR2s and 10 MR1s.

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Product Tanker Deliveries in No. of Units - Monthly(September 2018 ; only coated units 30,000-119,999 dwt ; in units)

MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 8

9 crude tankers equivalent to 1.7 mln dwt were reported demolished in July 2018, comprising of 2 VLCCs (0.62 mln dwt),and 7 Suezmaxes (1.04 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 2018, 69 crude tankers equivalent to 12.9 mln dwt werereported scrapped, compared to 14 crude tankers equivalent to 2.0 mln dwt reported demolished during the sameperiod in 2017.

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Crude Tanker Demolition Activity in No. of Units - Monthly(September 2018 ; only uncoated units over 78,000 dwt ; in units)

Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 9

1 MR2 of 45,000 dwt was reported demolished in August 2018. In the first 8 months of 2018, 38 product tankersequivalent to 2.0 mln dwt were reported demolished. In comparison, only 12 product tankers amounting to 0.66 mlndwt were demolished during the same period in 2017.

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Product Tanker Demolitions in No. of Units - Monthly(September 2018 ; only coated units 30,000-119,999 dwt ; in units)

MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 10

In August 2018, 2 Aframax orders of 115,000 dwt each were reported for uncoated units. In the first 8 months of 2018,45 crude tankers amounting to 11.7 mln dwt were ordered, comprising of 34 VLCCs, 2 Suezmaxes, and 9 uncoatedAframaxes. This compares to 53 crude tankers totaling 13.2 mln dwt ordered during the same period in 2017.

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Crude Tanker Newbuilding Orders in No. of Units - Monthly(September 2018 ; all coated and uncoated units over 78,000 dwt ; in units)

Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 11

In August 2018, 4 new orders equivalent to 0.2 mln dwt were signed, all MR2s. In the first 8 months of 2018, 48 producttankers amounting to 2.6 mln dwt were ordered, comprising of 4 LR2s, 39 MR2s and 5 MR1s. This compares to 53 neworders placed during the same period in 2017, of which 17 were LR2s, 1 was a LR1, 33 were MR2s and 2 were MR1s.

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Product Tanker Newbuilding Orders in No. of Units - Monthly(September 2018 ; only coated units 30,000-119,999 dwt ; in units)

MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 12

Charter and S&P Markets(rates, prices, sales volume)

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 13

In August 2018, crude tanker rates for VLCCs rose to around $2,400/d, while Suezmax and Aframax rates fell 9.5 percentand 9.1 percent respectively m-o-m.

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Crude Tanker Baltic Exchange Rates - last 36 months (September 2018 ; source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; in USD/day)

VLCC TCE Suezmax TCE Aframax TCE

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 14

LR2s on the MEG to Japan route averaged $6,200/d in August 2018, decreasing 13 percent m-o-m. MRs on the standardTC2 Cont/USAC route rose 123 percent m-o-m, while the TC11 Pacific route fell 33 percent m-o-m.

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Product Tanker Baltic Exchange Rates - last 36 months (September 2018 ; source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; in USD/day)

TC1 (MEG to Japan 75,000 tons) TC2 (Cont to USAC 37,000 tons) TC11 (S.Korea to Singapore 40,000 tons)

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 15

In August 2018, 1 year time charter rates for crude tankers rose by 1.4 percent m-o-m for Aframaxes, 4.0 percent forVLCCs, and 4.5 percent for Suemaxes.

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Crude Tanker 1 Year Timecharter Rates - last 36 months(September 2018 ; basis modern standard unit ; estimated monthly avg. ; in USD/day)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 16

In Aug 2018, 1 year time charter rates for MR2 tankers decreased 1.8 percent m-o-m and 5.3 percent y-o-y. Rates forLR2s stayed flat m-o-m but remained down 6.7 percent y-o-y.

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banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 17

NB prices for crude tankers generally rose by a slight 0.5-1.2 percent m-o-m, and remained up between 9.3-10.3 percenty-o-y. LR2s were up 0.5 percent m-o-m and 9.4 percent y-o-y, while MR2s stayed flat m-o-m and remained up 7.6percent y-o-y.

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Tanker Newbuilding Prices - last 36 months(September 2018 ; indicative average ; monthly data ; in USD mln)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR2 MR2

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 18

In August 2018, secondhand prices for VLCCs and Suezmaxes saw a slight increase of 0.4-1.2 percent m-o-m, whileAframaxes decreased 0.5 percent m-o-m. MR2 prices remained flat m-o-m.

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Tanker 5 Years Old Secondhand Prices - last 36 months(September 2018 ; indicative average ; monthly data ; in USD mln)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax MR2

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 19

In August 2018, 4 secondhand uncoated vessels were reported sold, concerning 3 VLCCs (0.93 mln dwt), and 1 uncoatedAframax (0.11 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 2018, 71 units were reported sold, of which 31 were VLCCs (8.3 mlndwt), 12 were Suezmaxes (1.9 mln dwt), and 28 were uncoated Aframaxes (2.9 mln dwt).

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Crude Tanker Reported Secondhand Sales - in No. of Units(September 2018 ; only uncoated units over 78,000 dwt ; in units)

Aframax (uncoated) Suezmax VLCC

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 20

In August 2018, 16 secondhand product tankers were sold. These deals concerned 1 LR2 (0.11 mln dwt), 3 LR2s (0.22mln dwt), 10 MR2s (0.48 mln dwt), and 2 MR1s (0.08 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 2018, 121 secondhand producttankers were sold, including 22 MR1s (0.8 mln dwt), 71 MR2s (3.4 mln dwt), 15 LR1s (1.1 mln dwt), and 13 LR2s (1.4 mlndwt).

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Product Tanker Reported Secondhand Sales - in No. of Units(September 2018; all coated units between 30-119,999 dwt ; in units)

MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 21

Summary(key figures for fleet, rates, and prices)

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 22

Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders

VLCC 2 2 0 26 25 34 50 9 48

Suezmax 4 7 0 29 20 2 51 11 21

Aframax (uncoated) 2 0 2 24 24 9 28 20 21

LR2 2 0 0 14 5 4 38 6 21

LR1 1 0 0 11 5 0 15 5 1

MR2 6 1 4 35 15 39 63 14 46

MR1 1 0 0 10 13 5 22 9 2

Total 18 10 6 149 107 93 267 74 160

Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders

VLCC 0.63 0.62 0.00 8.07 7.45 10.37 15.24 2.68 14.96

Suezmax 0.63 1.04 0.00 4.52 2.97 0.32 8.00 1.62 3.31

Aframax (uncoated) 0.22 0.00 0.23 2.71 2.48 1.02 3.17 2.03 2.38

LR2 0.22 0.00 0.00 1.57 0.51 0.46 4.16 0.60 2.39

LR1 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.34 0.00 1.11 0.34 0.08

MR2 0.30 0.04 0.20 1.75 0.69 1.98 3.12 0.66 2.30

MR1 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.49 0.20 0.82 0.34 0.08

Total 2.10 1.70 0.43 19.80 14.94 14.35 35.61 8.27 25.49

1 yr TC rate NB price 2nd Hand price

(USD/day) (USD mln) 5 y.o. (USD mln)

VLCC 21,000 + 4% - 17% 88.0 + 1% + 9% 62.0 + 0% + 1%

Suezmax 16,300 + 4% - 2% 59.0 + 1% + 10% 43.0 + 1% + 7%

Aframax (uncoated) 14,500 + 1% + 0% 46.5 + 1% + 9% 29.9 - 1% + 2%

MR2 13,500 - 2% - 5% 35.5 + 0% + 8% 26.0 + 0% + 9%

In units

In million dwt

Aug 2018

M-o-M Y-o-Y M-o-M Y-o-Y M-o-M Y-o-Y

Aug 2018 Jan-Aug 2018 2017

Jan-Aug 2018 2017Aug 2018

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 23

address: via pammatone, 2 16121 genoa (italy)

phone: + 39-010-[5631-1]

dry - capesize 5631-200 [email protected] insurance 5631-700 [email protected]

dry - panamax 5631-200 [email protected] p&i 5631-770 [email protected]

dry - handy 5631-200 [email protected] ship finance 5631-556 [email protected]

dry - operation 5631-200 [email protected] research 5631-558 [email protected]

tankers 5631-300 [email protected] agency 5631-600 [email protected]

containers 5631-515 [email protected] yachting 5631-764 [email protected]

s&p 5631-500 [email protected] accounting 5631-400 [email protected]

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phone: +44-207-398-1870 phone: +377-97-707-497 phone: +41-22-737-2626 phone: +971-4-360-5598

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Sep 2018 – Tanker Monthly Fleet Update 24

banchero costa & c. s.p.a.banchero costa & c. s.p.a.

head office: via pammatone, 2 16121 genoa (italy)

phone: + 39-010-[5631-1]

dry - capesize 5631-200 [email protected] research 5631-535 [email protected]

dry - panamax 5631-200 [email protected] ship finance 5631-556 [email protected]

dry - handy 5631-200 [email protected] insurance 5631-700 [email protected]

dry - operation 5631-200 [email protected] p&i 5631-770 [email protected]

tankers 5631-300 [email protected] yachting 5631-764 [email protected]

containers 5631-515 [email protected] agency 5631-600 [email protected]

s&p 5631-500 [email protected] ship repair 5631-626 [email protected]

offshore 5631-550 [email protected] towage/salvage 5631-626 [email protected]

bancosta uk bancosta monaco bancosta sa medioriental

london monte carlo geneva dubai

phone: +44-207-398-1870 phone: +377-97-707-497 phone: +41-22-737-2626 phone: +971-4-360-5598

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

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phone: +65-6327-6862 phone: +852-2865-1535 phone: +86-10-8453-4993 phone: +81-362-688-958

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