Tanker Markets Outlook Quarterly - Braemar...

Private and Confidential © Braemar ACM Shipbroking 2015

Tanker Markets Outlook Quarterly Aug 2015

Tanker Markets Outlook Quarterly

Published: 17 Aug 2015

Aug 2015

2 Private and Confidential © Braemar ACM Shipbroking 2015


Contents Page

Part 1: Key Data

Quarterly Forecast: Key Scenario Assumptions

Tanker Fleet at a Glance 3

Supply vs. Demand Overview 6

Tanker Demand Overview 7

Utilisation Forecast 8

Sentiment 11

Forecast of Tanker Earnings 12

Day Rates by Tanker Segment 13

Tanker Sector Earnings Comparison 14

Vessel Speeds 16

Supply Growth Estimates 17

Removal Trends 20

Speculation or replacement? 26

Oil Markets in Context

World Economy & Oil Demand 28

Regional Oil Demand Seasonality 29

Global Refining Capacity Changes 30

The Tanker Fleet in Charts

Newbuildings on Order 33

Ordering, Age, Growth & Control 35

Today’s Tanker Market

Sale & Purchase Activity 48

Tanker Breakeven Rates 51



Contents Page

Part 2: Clean Tanker Demand

Clean Tanker Demand

Overview of CPP trades 4

Evolution of CPP Trades 5

CPP Demand Outlook by country 6

Evolution of CPP Trades: East and West 7

Outlook for Seaborne CPP Trade Vs. Average Voyage Length 8

Clean Tanker Supply vs. Demand Outlook: Monthly 9

Outlook for CPP imports by Country / Grade 10

Outlook for CPP Import Requirement vs. Export Surplus by Region 17

CPP Trade Outlook by Country: Imports vs. Exports 18

Demand by Vessel Segment

Overview & Methodology 29

LR2 & LR1 30

MR2 & Handy 31

Drivers by Segment: Evolution & Outlook 32

CPP Exports by Destination & Imports by Origin

USA 37

Europe 39

Japan 42

Korea 44

Australia / Singapore 46

Hong Kong 49

China 50

Mexico / Taiwan 52

Malaysia 53

Indonesia 54

Veg Oil Exports by Destination 55



Contents Page

Part 3: Dirty Tanker Demand

Dirty Tanker Demand

Demand Outlook by Country: Monthly / Annual 6

‘Dirty’ Imports by Country: Tonnes - b/d - DWT Required 7

Evolution of DPP Trades: East and West 8

Outlook for Crude / Fuel Imports by Country 10

Crude Imports by Country: Tonnes - b/d - DWT Required 13

Fuel Oil imports by Country: Tonnes - b/d - DWT Required 13

Crude & FO: Tonnes vs. DWT - Impact of Slow Steaming 14

Crude, NGL & Biofuels Production Outlook 15

Crude / Fuel Oil Imports Outlook by Country 16

Dirty Tanker Supply vs. Demand Outlook: Monthly 18



VLCC 23

Suezmax 24

Aframax / LR2 (Dirty) 25

Panamax / LR1 (Dirty) 26

Crude & FO Exports by Destination & Imports by Origin

Crude Imports & Exports by Country 28

Fuel Oil Imports & Exports by Country 36

Dirty Tanker Demand by Vessel Type - Overview 4

Evolution of Dirty Trades by Vessel Type 5



Executive Summary

Staying sober in a party… Since the publica on of our last quarterly outlook in May freight markets for shipping refined products and crude oil have improved considerably. The crude market lost some momentum in July but clean markets con nue to steam ahead. This, at last, is party me for tanker owners. Forgive us, therefore, a moment of sober reflec on. On Monday a ernoon we release our August Quarterly Tanker Market Outlook (available as usual on our website). It will outline how excessive oil produc on has kept oil prices low, boos ng demand and encouraging big oil users to build stocks. Judging by the improvement in FFA forward curves and me charter rates in the past 3 months, our industry believes that fundamentals have shi ed in the owners’ favour. The strong performance of freight markets since May has forced us to li our earnings outlook for 2015. In May we were expec ng VLCC day rates to average $41k for the year. With less that half the year remaining we now expect $50k. We have revised Suezmaxes day rates up from £33k to $37k; Aframaxes from $27k to $30k. In the products space we have revised LR2s up from $26k to $29k; LR1s from $22k to $28k and MRs from 19k to 22k. Direc onally, at least, we were on the right track in May. Our May outlook suggested that the prevailing one‐year me charter rates were looking very cheap. Looking beyond 2015, we recognise the risks of ge ng caught up in the de of rising sen ment. Since May, me charter rates for one and two years have risen from $24k to $29k for Aframaxes, from $33 to $35k for Suezmaxes; from $23.75k to $30k for LR2s and from $20.5k to $26.5k for LR1s. Even the MR sector, which this year tackles the largest wave of newbuilding deliveries in its history, has seen one year TC rates rise from $17.25 to $19k.

Since the crude market hit the skids in July short‐term TC rates and FFAs have given some ground, but longer‐term op mism remains intact. Our outlook for 2016 a empts to weigh up the rela ve importance of a number of key factors, namely 1) rising oil demand in a low oil price environment, 2) a slow‐down in stock building as capacity limits are reached resul ng in the loss of ‘supplementary trade’, 3) the largest delivery schedules in several years for almost all sectors, but par cularly for Aframax/LR2s, VLCCs and Suezmaxes, and 4) faster steaming speeds. Our modelling of the supply / demand rela onship suggests that overall tanker demand generated by ‘dirty’ trades will be 0.7% higher in 2016 than in 2015. This compares to average fleet capacity growth of 3.7% during the same period. It assumes no further build in commercial stocks and a slower rate of growth for strategic storage stocks. But it allows for the impact of lower oil prices and higher refinery throughput in Europe (fewer closures, higher u lisa on) and elsewhere. Back in May we felt crude tanker demand would fall by 0.2% in 2016. A more conserva ve view on European refinery closures a er a period of excep onally strong refining margins leads us to reduce our outlook for world ‘modelled’ CPP imports in 2016. In May we expected CPP tanker demand to grow 5% in 2016. Now we feel growth will be slower at 3.3%. We do however feel that our model overstates the importance of European refinery changes. As we explained in our big picture comment on June 19th (“What can we learn from BP”), much of the growth in clean product demand will take place in regions that do not provide reliable data on exis ng product imports. We are likely to be underplaying these regions in our sta s cs. In view of these limita ons, and taking into account the fullest possible line‐up of demand drivers, we expect VLCC rates to come down to



Executive Summary

$38k (average) in 2016, unchanged from our May outlook. However, while that number looked rela vely op mis c in May, today it would probably make current 1‐2 yr me charter rates look overvalued. Similarly CAL 16 ‐ trading today at about $47k / day ‐ feels ‘toppy’ in our assessment despite having come off over the past few weeks. We think Suezmaxes will come down to an average of around $28k/day in 2016, and Aframaxes should drop to about $24k despite a strong pull from the clean sector. We maintain our view that LR2s in clean trades will outperform those in dirty for the first me in six years in 2016. We see clean trading LR2s averaging $27k / day in 2016. LR1s should perform equally well, with lower fleet growth keeping rates strong. Beyond 2016 we enter an ever‐less‐certain world influenced by fresh newbuilding orders. Forecasts therefore become less useful. It is easy to argue that owners will find ways to increase capacity in outperforming sectors, and rates should dri back to historical norms. We think those norms will nevertheless look healthy compared to the earnings we have come to expect in post‐financial crisis. By 2019 we feel VLCCs would have sunk back to $28k / day; Suezmaxes to $25k / day; LR2s to $21k, LR1s to $18k and MRs to $15k. Aframaxes could outperform in 2018 and 2019, but this is simply a hunch based on our take on future ordering pa erns. It should be noted that the gradient of fleet growth for uncoated + dirty‐trading coated tankers in 2017 is star ng to look alarmingly steep. ____________ Please note that we have taken a different approach to forecas ng vessel re rement in this Quarterly report. In previous reports we applied a recent historical average re rement age and phased vessels over that age out over a three

year period. In a low scrapping / removal environment, one or two young re rees easily skewed our average re rement age from one month to the next. Our outlook needed to be more stable than that. We now look at what % of each year of build has been removed recently for the whole tanker fleet, and apply that to each sector of the fleet in each future year.

This approach leaves us with a slightly more

conserva ve view on future vessel re rement for

all but the MR and Handy sectors. The chart

above shows how this shi in methodology

affected our numbers for future ‘re rement’.

____________

Today’s big ponderables Dis llate margins are weak and gasoline is single‐handedly propping up the world’s refineries.

But gasoline demand growth is expected to slow

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

VL Suez Afra LR2 Pana LR1 MR Handy

Number of ships that we exected

will retire from international petroleum trading 2015‐2018

Old method New method



Executive Summary

during the third quarter.

If strong refining margins have caused demand for crude tankers to leap in the past 8 months, what happens when they fall?

A slowdown in demand growth for gasoline would reduce gasoline prices at the pump, which would dent refining profits. If refiners make a loss on net sales, they would be forced to cut u lisa on levels, which would reduce demand for crude oil.

In a perfectly func oning oil market, oil producers would respond by cu ng exports to stabilise the price of crude.

Saudi Arabia was the only country to have any meaningful impact on oil prices by adjus ng crude exports. But Saudi gave up this role last November.

So the most likely outcome, as we see it, of reduced refining throughput is a fall in the price of crude that would allow refiners to return to profit at lower pump prices, allowing them to li throughput again or sustain high run rates. This might take a few months of poor refining margins to work its way through the system.

OPEC currently believes it would take a cut of 2m b/d in crude output to have any meaningful impact on crude prices. Output cuts would need to be even bigger if refinery throughput falls. Saudi Arabia is unlikely, in our view, to concede market share of 2m b/d to other producers, par cularly as Iran is eagerly wai ng to pick up any slack.

So we think that by q4, crude freight will be riding the storm brewing in the global refining complex. Addi onal crude supplies (Iran, Libya etc.) will cut crude prices to the point that demand growth (+ addi onal strategic storage demand in 2H 2015) will absorb all available supply.

A lower oil price environment will mean that our focus will shi from crude demand to crude supply as the key driver of future tanker demand. The lower oil prices that this shi will demand should ensure that tanker demand

grows at a healthy clip. It will need to if it we are absorb the 104 VLCCs, 68 Suezmaxes and 106 Aframaxes/LR2s that are scheduled to deliver by the end of 2017.

So it all boils down to Saudi Arabia. If Saudi DOES cut produc on to shore up prices, then the tanker market is in trouble. We are reasonably confident that it won’t.

Indeed in the short‐term, Saudi no longer needs to cut produc on to stabilise prices. This is now the job of higher‐cost, price‐elas c producers in the US. US shale oil produc on is now substan al enough to meaningfully influence world oil prices. As the most price‐sensi ve produc on on the planet, shale oil now acts as a floor to global oil prices. Unlike other oil producers, shale producers will drill fewer wells when they feel they can’t turn a profit on any given project. Fewer wells quickly translates into lower produc on as exis ng wells are rapidly exhausted. If US refiners come off their 90%+ u lisa on levels, we will once again be tes ng the breakeven levels required for new wells to get the go‐ahead.

It is noted of course that US drilling costs are falling all the me. Just as an example, Anadarko’s horizontal drill costs in Colorado have fallen from $3.4m in the first quarter of this year to just $1m in today. We can though say with confidence that as oil prices fall, US shale producers will be in the red comfortably before Saudi Aramco.

In the longer‐term, Saudi Arabia’s pain will be rewarded by long‐term gain as oil majors con nue to withhold E&P spending. That gain will come quicker if oil prices don’t destabilise the fragile global economic recovery. On top of it all, Saudi Arabia knows that it fights an uphill struggle for market share not just as its buyers diversify crude sourcing away from what they see as an increasingly unstable region, but also as technology and poli cal developments threaten to cut the use environmentally unfriendly hydrocarbons. OPEC has reluctantly come to the conclusion, we believe, that low oil



Executive Summary

prices are an existen al necessity.

So while there are many threats to crude tanker freight, such as a return of the Iranian fleet, faster steaming speeds and a large order book, we believe today’s tumbling rates are a reflec on of vola lity, not a return to a fundamentally oversupplied market. Then again, there is that niggling problem of today’s record high oil stock levels to consider.

For how long can oil stocks keep building?

We stated that OPEC believes it would need to cut oil supply by 2m b/d in order to have any influence on prices. It’s a widely‐held view. The IEA thinks that oil produc on outstripped oil demand by a massive 3.3m b/d in the second quarter, up from 1.8m b/d in the first. The only logical conclusion to draw is that this surplus is building onto storage, somewhere.

If this oil is finding its way into storage at the oil produc on end – working stock for new refineries for instance ‐ then we needn’t worry. If, however, stocks are building at the consumer end, or as oil on the water, then we have to accept that stock building has been at least partly responsible for the rally in tanker freight. And this is a problem because stocks cannot fill indefinitely, and in some regions are already close to record levels.

The reality is we don’t know for sure where this stock is building, or indeed if it is. The IEA’s 3.3m b/d number is simply the difference between what the agency assumes was produced and what it thinks was consumed in Q2. Both numbers will doubtless be revised at some point.

But taken at face value, 3.3m b/d of stock building added about 300million bbls to global stocks over the second quarter. Lack of data transparency means that the IEA is only able to ‘record’ a stock build of 67 million bbls in OECD countries, and 24million bbls in China and Singapore. The rest of it ‐ 209 million bbls – it

cannot account for.

If real, some of this mystery stock build could be producer end: crude oil filling tanks in new refineries or major terminals in the Middle East and Colombia. Or it could be consumer end – crude oil filling tanks at a new refinery in India, SPRs in India and China, or way downstream in car fuel tanks and hea ng oil tanks around the world (ter ary storage).

Or indeed it could be somewhere between the two: crude and products stuck in transit on‐board tankers (fuel oil in Singapore, unsold West African and North Sea crude), or finished products building up in the tanks of na onal fuel distributors.

Where that stock build is happening ma ers a lot to tanker markets. If it has been happening producer‐end it has had no impact on tanker demand. It cannot be credited with a rise in traded volume and therefore poses no risk to tanker freight if it stops. In fact the end of producer‐end stock building could signal a greater surplus available for export.

If the stock build it is on the water or at the consumer end it is likely to have created addi onal tanker demand that would disappear as soon as storage capacity limits are reached. The loss of even a small frac on of storage trade could therefore hit freight markets hard.

It is reasonable to believe that producer‐end stock building in oil terminals and new refineries like Ruwais 2 (417k bpd) and Yanbu (400k b/d) accounts for some of that mystery gulf between oil supply and demand. A typical refinery will look to store about 35 days’ worth of crude runs and 15 days of product output. That would be about 40 million barrels of oil stock build at the two Middle Eastern refineries and another 4 million barrels at Colombia’s Cartagena refinery (85k b/d). Let’s say for the sake of it that another 10 million bbls has been added to storage in terminals in the Middle East. That’s a total stock build (probably since late 2014) of about 54 million bbls – so about 180k b/d.



Executive Summary

This s ll leaves over 2.1m b/d of poten al stock building in net oil consuming countries. That’s equivalent to about 6% of world crude oil exports in 2014, according to BP’s sta s cal Review of World Energy.

But even that doesn’t mean crude tankers stand to lose up to 6% of their business when stock building stops. This is because the chief stock builder in the OECD (and probably the world) is the US. The US produces more light crude than it needs and imports heavier grades. So even as a

net oil importer, US stock building is largely confined to locally‐produced or intra‐regionally‐piped crude that will not have benefi ed tankers. Its absence is therefore unlikely to harm them.

If product imports were building into storage in the US this might be a different ma er. US

gasoline imports have a er all supported the CPP tanker market in the past 8 months. US gasoline and dis llate stocks might be historically low at the moment (as recorded by the EIA) but it is impossible to ascertain how much of the IEA’s ‘unaccounted for’ stock building relates to refined products in ter ary storage in the US. Probably quite a lot.

So what does it all mean? Once stock building slows, stops or reverses, the world will need less oil. We expect that this will reduce oil prices, boos ng demand – as we spelled out yesterday. But there could well be a period where demand growth lags the loss of oil trade generated by stock building in certain countries. If this were to coincide with peak level delivery of new ships into the market in 2016/17, freight levels could be hit hard.



Executive Summary

S&P Activity S&P activity has decreased along side stronger tanker earnings. 56 newbuildings over 25k dwt were ordered for tankers in the second quarter, compared with 64 in Q1 2015. The VLCC sector had the most NB orders, with 17 orders placed in Q2, after 14 in the previous quarter and 4 in Q4. LR2 and LR1 contracting also increased this quarter, climbing to 14 and 10 NBs respectively, from 8 and 7 respectively in Q1 2015. Second-hand tanker deals were unchanged quarter-on-quarter. 53 second-hand vessels changed hands in Q2 2015, the same as Q1 2015.

DPP/crude tanker sales saw the most activity in Q2 2015, with 18 VLCCs sold after just 6 in Q1 2015. 17 MR2s and 5 Handies were sold in Q2 2015 compared with 19 and 9 respectively in Q1 2015.

Time Charter Activity The number of short and longer-term T/C fixtures declined in Q2 2015, falling to 98 fixtures, down from 140 in Q1 2015. LR1s were favoured for short-term fixtures. 7 fixtures were reported in Q2 2015 compared with 3 short-term fixtures in Q1 2015. MR2s recorded 19 fixtures last quarter, following 31 fixtures in Q1 2015. 16 MR2 fixtures were recorded last quarter for 2 years or more, compared with 6 in Q1.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012 2013 2014 2015

NBs and 2nd‐Hand Sales ActivityCoated Tankers

Handy

MR2

LR1

LR2

Handy

MR2

LR1

LR2

2nd hand

NB

# of Ships

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012 2013 2014 2015

NBs and 2nd‐Hand Sales ActivityUncoated Tankers

Panamax

Aframax

Suezmax

VLCC

Panamax

Aframax

Suezmax

VLCC

2ndhand

NB

# of Ships

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 2015

Time Charter Fixtures ReportedShort‐term: >0.5<2yrs

Handy

MR2

LR1

LR2

Aframax

Suezmax

VLCC

# of Fixtures

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 2015

Time Charter Fixtures ReportedLong‐term: >2yrs

Handy

MR2

LR1

LR2

Aframax

Suezmax

VLCC

# of Fixtures



Part 1: Key Data



Aug 2015



Contents Page

Quarterly Forecast: Key Scenario Assumptions

Tanker Fleet at a Glance 3

Supply vs. Demand Overview 6

Tanker Demand Overview 7

Utilisation Forecast 8

Sentiment 11

Forecast of Tanker Earnings 12

Day Rates by Tanker Segment 13

Tanker Sector Earnings Comparison 14

Vessel Speeds 16

Supply Growth Estimates 17

Removal Trends 20

Speculation or replacement? 26

Oil Markets in Context

World Economy & Oil Demand 28

Regional Oil Demand Seasonality 29

Global Refining Capacity Changes 30

The Tanker Fleet in Charts

Newbuildings on Order 33

Ordering, Age, Growth & Control 35

Today’s Tanker Market

Sale & Purchase Activity 48

Tanker Breakeven Rates 51

Part 1: Key Data



Tanker fleet at a glance

Today's Tanker Fleet Handy MR VLCC

(# of ships) 25‐41k DWT 41‐56.5k DWT

24‐46k CBM 46‐60k CBM

Un‐

Coated LR1

Un‐

Coated LR2

Un‐

Coated LR3

Total Tanker Fleet 793 1347 86 342 660 294 473 20 662

Ice Class (1AS, 1A, 1B, 1C) 212 120 6 43 67 17 35 3

Single Hull (inc. d/s; d/b) 37 19 11 12 29 4 12 1 13

of which…

'Petroleum' Tanker: Trading 637 1239 71 328 590 287 416 18 628

Trading Clean 205 179

Trading Dirty 71 123 571 108 405 18 595

Trading Chems / Veg Oil 1 159 147

Floating storage (temp.) 19 11 33

'Petroleum' Tanker: Non‐Trading 32 46 8 9 49 5 48 10

Geographically restricted (coastal) 24 14 8 2 6 4 1 4

Cold Lay‐up 4 2 2 1 6

Jones Act 1 29 3 10

Shuttle Tanker 3 1 7 38 37

'Non‐Petroleum' Tanker 124 62 7 5 21 2 9 2 24

FSO (Long‐term) 2 3 7 5 19 2 9 2 24

Dedicated Asphalt / Bitumin 2 2

Dedicated Chem / Veg oil 108 54

Trading uncertain but too old for oil trades 12 3 21

Vessel has history of CPP and/or DPP but is currently trading Lubes, Chems or Veg Oil

>200k

DWT60‐90k CBM

478 1092

Panamax Aframax Suezmax

53.5‐84.5k DWT 84.4‐124.5k

DWT

124.5‐200k

DWT

Today's Tanker Orderbook Handy MR VLCC

(# of ships) 25‐41k DWT 41‐56.5k DWT

24‐46k CBM 46‐60k CBM

Un‐

Coated LR1

Un‐

Coated LR2

Un‐

Coated LR3

Total Tanker Orderbook 2 96 194 9 51 56 82 79 2 113

% of Existing Fleet 13% 15% 13% 15% 9% 29% 17% 11% 18%

Options 4 4 3

Unverified Orders 1

of which…

'Destined for Int. Petroleum Trades 2 37 167 3 50 56 82 71 2 113

% of Existing Fleet 6% 13% 4% 15% 9% 29% 17% 11% 18%

Options 4 4 3

Unverified Orders 1

Destined for 'Other' Trades 2

Jones Act 16

Dedicated Chemical / Veg Oil 59 11

Shuttle Tanker 6 1 72 Excluding unverified and options

>200k

DWT60‐90k CBM


53.5‐84.5k DWT 84.4‐124.5k

DWT

124.5‐200k

DWT



Tanker fleet developments

Handy MR VLCC

25‐41k DWT 41‐56.5k DWT>200k

DWT24‐46k CBM 46‐60k CBM

Un‐

Coated LR1 all

Un‐

Coated LR2 all

Un‐

Coated LR3 allOrdered in…

2012 7 92 0 3 3 6 12 18 5 0 5 15

2013 34 171 0 0 0 15 58 73 2 0 2 43

2014 16 19 3 26 29 7 17 24 37 0 37 36

2015 (to date) 1 20 0 22 22 30 30 60 28 2 30 40

Retired in…

2012 19 14 6 11 17 22 4 26 15 0 15 17

2013 8 8 10 5 15 19 2 21 3 0 3 18

2014 8 5 6 5 11 19 2 21 9 1 10 7

2015 (to date) 3 1 6 1 7 5 1 6 0 0 0 2

2015e (balance) 4 6 1 1 2 3 0 2 2 0 2 0

2016e 11 15 2 2 4 9 2 11 5 0 5 5

2017e 13 17 2 2 4 10 3 13 6 0 6 8

2018e 18 23 3 3 6 15 5 20 9 0 9 11

Delivered in…

2012 11 45 0 14 14 21 18 39 44 1 45 48

2013 5 74 0 11 11 6 8 14 16 1 17 30

2014 20 76 0 4 4 2 14 16 8 0 8 24

2015 (to date) 6 68 0 2 2 1 21 22 7 0 7 12

2015e (balance) 8 52 0 5 5 3 13 16 1 0 1 14

2016e 21 86 2 24 26 20 35 55 32 2 34 54

2017e 6 21 1 16 17 26 30 56 34 0 34 35

2018e 2 8 0 5 5 7 4 11 4 0 4 9

Est. Annual % fleet growth1

2012 -1 3 -6 1 -1 0 6 2 6

2013 -2 6 -11 2 -1 -2 2 -1 2

2014 0 6 -7 0 -2 -3 5 -1 3

2015e 1 10 -9 2 -1 -1 12 3 4

2016e 2 5 0 7 5 2 11 4 8

2017e -1 0 -2 4 3 3 8 4 4

2018e -2 -1 -4 1 0 -1 0 -1 0

¹ Scheduled newbuilding deliveries less our removal scenario as a % of the fleet at the beginning of that year, including projected slippage and reintegration of new buildings, excluding floating storage and lay up

Tanker Fleet dedicated

to int. petroleum trades


53.5‐84.5k DWT 84.4‐124.5k DWT 124.5‐200k DWT

60‐90k CBM

7

6

-1

8

3

0

1



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

53‐54

57‐58

61‐62

65‐66

69‐70

73‐74

77‐78

81‐82

85‐86

89‐90

93‐94

97‐98

101‐102

105‐106

109‐110

113‐114

117‐118

121‐122

125‐126

129‐130

133‐134

137‐138

141‐142

145‐146

149‐150

153‐154

157‐158

161‐162

165‐166

169‐170

173‐174

177‐178

181‐182

185‐186

189‐190

193‐194

197‐198

201‐202

205‐206

209‐210

213‐214

217‐218

221‐222

225‐226

229‐230

233‐234

237‐238

241‐242

245‐246

249‐250

253‐254

257‐258

261‐262

265‐266

269‐270

273‐274

277‐278

281‐282

285‐286

289‐290

293‐294

297‐298

301‐302

305‐306

309‐310

313‐314

317‐318

321‐322

325‐326

Million DWT

Size Range (k dwt)

Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC

Uncoated

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

25‐26

29‐30

33‐34

37‐38

41‐42

45‐46

49‐50

53‐54

57‐58

61‐62

65‐66

69‐70

73‐74

77‐78

81‐82

85‐86

89‐90

93‐94

97‐98

101‐102

105‐106

109‐110

113‐114

117‐118

121‐122

Million DWT

Size Range (k dwt)

Handy MR2 LR1 LR2

CoatedCoated Fleet ‐ Petroleum trades

Uncoated Fleet ‐ Petroleum trades

Tanker fleet at a glance

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

25‐26

29‐30

33‐34

37‐38

41‐42

45‐46

49‐50

53‐54

57‐58

61‐62

65‐66

69‐70

73‐74

77‐78

81‐82

85‐86

89‐90

93‐94

97‐98

101‐102

105‐106

109‐110

113‐114

117‐118

Million DWT

Size Range (k dwt)

Handy MR2

ChemsCoated Fleet ‐ Chems etc. trades

DALIAN

GSI

LONGXUE

NEW

CEN

TURY

SAMSU

NG (NINGBO)

SWS

OTH

ER ‐ C

HIN

A

DAEW

OO

HHI

HYU

NDAI G

UNSA

N

HYU

NDAI M

IPO

HYU

NDAI SAMHO

SPP

STX

SUNGDONG

OTH

ER ‐ K

OR

EA

JMU

ONOMICHI

SUMITOMO

OTH

ER ‐ J

AP

AN

DAEW

OO‐M

ANGALIA

HYU

NDAI VINASH

IN

OTH

ER

VLCC 18 2 11 2 21 13 8 20 2 4 9 3

SUEZMAX 13 3 4 4 8 8 11 4 7 2 4 5

AFRAMAX 2 2 2 5 2 12 1 9 11 9 1

LR2 6 16 6 10 1 4 5 15 8 4 5 2

PANAMAX 3

LR1 5 2 1 4 22 7 3 4 2

MR2 4 23 16 50 30 4 14 3 3 9 11

HANDY 3 2 18 2 5 7

Trading Others (Chems, Vegoil, Methanol, etc.):

MR2 4 7

HANDY 8 16 12 23

Tanker Orderbook By Yard ‐ Aug 2015

China Korea Japan Other



Supply vs. Demand Overview

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e'16e'17e'18e'19e'20e

Clean & Dirty Tanker Supply Vs Demand (>25k dwt)

m dwt

incl. likely future ordering


Clean Trading Supply

(at 14.5 kts L/B steaming speed)

(at observed / likely steaming speed)

Dirty Demand

Clean Demand

(at 14.5 kts L/B steaming speed)

(at observed / likely steaming speed)

Dirty Trading Supply

Braemar ACM Projection



Tanker Demand Overview

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Australasia

Canada

China

E&S Africa

Europe

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Mexico

Middle East

North Africa

Other Africa

Other Asia Pacific

Singapore

S&C America

United States

West Africa

Clean Annual Product Tanker Demand Outlook by Region/Country

million DWT ‐ constant speedForecast

million DWT 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Australasia 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2

Canada 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6

China 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.1 4.5

E&S Africa 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4

Europe 19.0 21.4 22.1 21.3 21.7 21.9

Indonesia 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.8

Japan 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5

Korea 9.5 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4

Mexico 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5

Middle East 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4

North Africa 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.8

Other Africa 3.6 4.2 4.6 3.7 4.0 5.3

Other Asia Pac 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.3

Singapore 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3

S&C America 7.8 8.1 7.3 7.7 8.3 9.1

United States 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3

West Africa 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Australasia

Canada

China

E&S Africa

Europe

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Mexico

Middle East

Other Asia Pacific

Singapore

S&C America

United States

Dirty (Crude + DPP) Tanker Demand Outlook by Region/Country

million DWT ‐ constant speedForecast million DWT 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Australasia 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4

Canada 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5

China 68.7 73.6 76.1 79.8 81.7 82.6

E&S Africa 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

Europe 44.1 42.7 41.7 41.8 41.4 40.8

India 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.6 28.8 30.0

Indonesia 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.9

Japan 27.5 25.7 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.1

Korea 24.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3

Mexico 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Middle East 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.5 1.5

Other Asia Pac 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.7 15.0

Singapore 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5

S&C America 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.1

United States 22.2 20.7 20.2 18.9 17.4 15.0



Utilisation Forecast: All Tankers

¹See 12 month historical average removal age on pages 20‐21 of this sec on

²See Braemar ACM es mates on page 19 of this sec on

Supply (m DWT ‐ Yearly Average) '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e '16e '17e '18e '19e '20e

If Avg. Exit Age1 ‐ No Future Ordering 271 281 299 316 331 341 349 377 407 429 443 449 463 483 512 519 512 499

Growth (%) 2.9% 3.9% 6.2% 5.9% 4.6% 2.9% 2.5% 8.1% 7.9% 5.5% 3.2% 1.4% 3.0% 4.5% 5.8% 1.4% ‐1.3% ‐2.6%

‐ Incl. estimated Future Ordering2 463 484 518 547 570 586

Growth (%) 3.0% 4.6% 7.1% 5.5% 4.2% 2.9%

If 15 Yr Exit ‐ No Future Ordering 271 281 299 316 331 341 349 377 407 429 443 449 461 453 447 413 383 357

Growth (%) 2.9% 3.9% 6.2% 5.9% 4.6% 2.9% 2.5% 8.1% 7.9% 5.5% 3.2% 1.4% 2.5% ‐1.5% ‐1.5% ‐7.6% ‐7.2% ‐6.7%


Growth (%) 2.5% ‐1.5% ‐0.1% ‐2.7% 0.1% 1.0%

Demand (m DWT ‐ Yearly Average) '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e '16e '17e '18e '19e '20e

If Fixed Steaming Speed3 261 282 290 300 307 310 307 324 324 332 328 332 342 347 352 354 359 363

Growth (%) 7.4% 8.1% 2.7% 3.6% 2.1% 1.2% ‐1.1% 5.4% 0.2% 2.3% ‐1.1% 1.2% 3.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 1.4% 1.2%

If Variable Steaming Speed3 254 275 290 300 312 314 307 333 355 379 382 388 399 405 410 412 418 423

Growth (%) 7.4% 8.2% 5.3% 3.6% 3.9% 0.6% ‐2.3% 8.7% 6.6% 6.8% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 1.4% 1.2%

Utilization (%) '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e '16e '17e '18e '19e '20e

If Avg. Exit age1 ‐ Variable Speed3 ‐ No Future Ordering 97.1 101.4 100.6 98.3 97.5 95.2 90.4 91.0 89.7 91.0 88.4 88.8 88.7 85.5 80.9 80.2 82.9 86.8

‐ incl. estimated Future Ordering2 88.7 85.4 79.5 74.7 71.9 70.2

‐ Fixed Speed3 ‐ No Future Ordering 97.1 101.3 97.8 95.5 93.0 91.3 87.8 85.1 77.4 74.3 69.9 69.8 69.9 66.8 62.2 61.5 64.2 68.0


If 15 Yr Exit age ‐ Variable Speed3 ‐ No Future Ordering 97.1 101.4 100.6 98.3 97.5 95.2 90.4 91.0 89.7 91.0 88.4 88.8 89.1 92.0 94.8 103.0 111.6 119.5




Observed/likely (variable) speed '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e '16e '17e '18e '19e '20e

Variable (observed) speed ‐ Laden 15.0 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.3 13.5 13.5 12.4 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0

‐ Ballast 15.0 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.3 14.5 13.8 12.5 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e '16e '17e'18e '19e '20e

All tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ variable speed

All tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ constant speed

Utilisation of Tanker fleet >25k dwt

%

Braemar ACM Projectionsee page 17‐19 for details


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e '16e '17e '18e'19e '20e

All tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ variable speed

All tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ constant speed

Utilisation of Tanker fleet >25k dwt

%

Braemar ACM Projectionif average exit at 15 years




Utilisation Forecast: Clean Tankers



Growth (%) 4.7% 9.0% 10.4% 12.4% 9.9% 9.8% 10.5% 9.1% 4.9% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6% 5.2% 6.7% 3.6% 0.2% ‐1.6% ‐2.4%


Growth (%) 5.2% 6.8% 4.7% 3.1% 2.1% 1.3%


Growth (%) 4.7% 9.0% 10.4% 12.4% 9.9% 9.8% 10.5% 9.1% 4.9% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6% 5.3% 1.9% ‐1.9% ‐6.8% ‐7.0% ‐7.6%


Growth (%) 5.3% 2.0% ‐0.7% ‐3.5% ‐2.3% ‐2.5%



Growth (%) 9.1% 12.3% 11.6% 6.6% 7.2% 5.9% 2.4% 9.1% ‐0.3% 2.9% 4.7% 7.5% 2.7% 3.3% 1.6% ‐2.2% 2.8% 6.1%


Growth (%) 9.0% 12.3% 14.6% 6.6% 9.0% 5.3% 1.2% 12.1% 5.9% 7.3% 6.6% 8.1% 2.8% 3.3% 1.6% ‐2.2% 2.8% 6.0%












‐ Ballast 15.0 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.3 14.5 13.8 12.5 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e'16e'17e'18e '19e'20e

Clean tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ variable speed

Clean tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ constant speed

Utilisation of Clean Tanker fleet >25k dwt

%



40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e'16e'17e'18e'19e'20e

Clean tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ variable speed

Clean tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ constant speed

Utilisation of Clean Tanker fleet >25k dwt

%







Utilisation Forecast: Dirty Tankers

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e'16e'17e'18e'19e'20e

Dirty tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ variable speed

Dirty tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ constant speed

Utilisation of Dirty Tanker fleet >25k dwt

%



40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15e'16e'17e'18e'19e'20e

Dirty tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ variable speed

Dirty tankers ‐ no future ordering ‐ constant speed

Utilisation of Dirty Tanker fleet >25k dwt

%





Growth (%) 2.5% 2.8% 5.2% 4.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 7.8% 8.9% 5.9% 2.8% 0.4% 2.2% 3.8% 6.6% 1.8% ‐1.2% ‐2.6%


Growth (%) 2.2% 3.8% 8.0% 6.3% 4.9% 3.4%


Growth (%) 2.5% 2.8% 5.2% 4.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 7.8% 8.9% 5.9% 2.8% 0.4% 1.6% ‐2.7% ‐1.4% ‐7.8% ‐7.2% ‐6.4%


Growth (%) 1.6% ‐2.6% 0.0% ‐2.5% 0.9% 2.1%



Growth (%) 7.1% 7.3% 0.8% 2.9% 0.9% 0.0% ‐2.0% 4.4% 0.4% 2.1% ‐2.9% ‐0.8% 3.2% 0.7% 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% ‐0.4%


Growth (%) 7.0% 7.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.6% ‐0.6% ‐3.2% 7.7% 6.8% 6.6% ‐1.1% ‐0.3% 2.9% 0.7% 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% ‐0.4%












‐ Ballast 15.0 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.3 14.5 13.8 12.5 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0





Sentiment: past 3 months (FFAs)

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

May‐15 Jun‐15 Jul‐15 Aug‐15

MR ‐ Atlantic Basket FFAs ‐ $k / day

Q3 2015 Q4 2015CAL 2016 CAL 2017Spot

14

19

24

29

34

39


LR1 / 2 ‐ TD5 FFAs ‐ $k / day

Q3 2015 Q4 2015CAL 2016 CAL 2017Spot

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Aframax ‐ TD7 FFAs ‐ $k / day

Q3 2015 Q4 2015CAL 2016 CAL 2017Spot

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


VLCC ‐ TD3 FFAs ‐ $k / day

Q3 2015 Q4 2015CAL 2016 CAL 2017Spot

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65


Suezmax ‐ TD20 FFAs ‐ $k / day

Q3 2015 Q4 2015CAL 2016 CAL 2017Spot



Forecast of Tanker Earnings

22 2017

16 15

15 13 13 1316

15

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Atlantic Basket (dotted = FFA)

Timecharter 'forward curve'

Earnings Forecast ‐ Full year

Torm MR28

24

21

18

1818

14

12 1214

19

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

TC5 (dotted = FFA)



Torm LR1

29

27 2522 21

2018

11 12 1317

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

TC5 (dotted = FFA)



Torm

LR2

30

24 22

23 24

16 1613 12

13

21

32

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

TD7 (dotted = FFA)



Teekay Aframax

3728

2827

2526

24

1418

14

23

39

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

TD20 (dotted = FFA)



Teekay Suezmax

50

38 38 36

28

3340

20 22

15

24

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

TD3 (dotted = FFA)



Frontline VLCC



Day Rates by Tanker Segment

BACM Average TCE by Sector ‐ Q2 2015

B L B L Load Dsch Wait Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15

VLCC

BITRA TD3 (RV) 14.5 14.5 80 100 20 85 10 58,753 65,279 64,137

BITRA (Triang) 14.5 14.5 80 100 20 85 10 68,801 76,226 77,797

MODERN (Triang) 10 12 45 70 20 70 10 58,287 66,514 68,032

ECO (Triang) 10 12 33 55 20 70 10 62,525 71,211 72,456

SUEZMAX

BITRA TD5 (RV) 14.5 14.5 50 60 12 50 10 35,714 47,216 43,235

BITRA (Triang) 14.5 14.5 50 60 12 50 10 38,002 47,282 47,256

MODERN (Triang) 13 13 44 49 7.5 40 10 35,912 49,667 49,583

ECO (Triang) 13 13 36.5 43 7.5 40 10 37,708 51,613 51,467

AFRAMAX

BITRA TD17 (RV) 14.5 14.5 48 54 10 42.5 5 48,958 37,626 58,236

BITRA (Triang) 14.5 14.5 48 54 10 42.5 5 43,738 39,754 57,038

MODERN (Triang) 13 13 37 42 6 30 5 42,822 41,885 59,308

ECO (Triang) 13 13 30 36 6 30 5 44,204 43,395 60,738

LR2

BITRA TC1 (RV) 14.5 14.5 48 54 10 42.5 5 21,908 23,682 32,686

BITRA (Triang) 14.5 14.5 48 54 10 42.5 5 29,000 28,754 35,837

MODERN (Triang) 13 13 37 42 6 30 5 28,310 29,505 36,656

ECO (Triang) 13 13 30 36 6 30 5 30,214 31,635 38,608

PANAMAX

BITRA TD10 (RV) 15.5 15.5 49 51.5 5 27.5 5 27,328 23,806 27,609

BITRA (Triang) 15.5 15.5 49 51.5 5 27.5 5 32,191 29,757 34,279

MODERN (Triang) 13 13 28 35 5 17.5 5 31,017 30,474 35,043

ECO (Triang) 13 13 24 31 5 17.5 5 32,075 31,623 36,143

LR1

BITRA TC5 15.5 15.5 49 51.5 5 27.5 5 20,841 20,419 26,783

BITRA (Triang) 15.5 15.5 49 51.5 5 27.5 5 28,606 26,070 32,540

MODERN (Triang) 13 13 28 35 5 17.5 5 27,761 26,352 32,913

ECO (Triang) 13 13 24 31 5 17.5 5 28,969 27,703 34,150

MR

BITRA TC2 14.5 14.5 30 36 5 12 5 17,976 19,833 23,127

BITRA 14.5 14.5 30 36 5 12 5 23,823 21,132 25,651

EXISTING MODERN 13 13 26 28 3.5 12 5 22,782 21,643 26,194

ECO 13 13 19 22 3.5 12 5 24,375 23,386 27,847

HANDY

BITRA TC9 14.5 14 30 36 5 12 5 26,321 24,534 24,672

BITRA 14.5 14 30 36 5 12 5 26,102 24,748 24,884

EXISTING MODERN 13 13 24 26 3.5 7.5 5 25,310 25,578 25,691

ECO 13 13 17 20 3.5 7.5 5 26,696 27,088 27,126

Speed (kts) Cons (t/d incl. aux.) Avg Earnings

MID EAST/USG 13% 70%

CARIBS/SING 15% 85%

WAF/CHINA 13% 58%

MID EAST/JAPAN 59% 56%

Sector Weighted Average 63%

WAF/USAC 62% 54%

BSEA/MED 25% 43%

MID EAST/CHINA 13% 61%


S.VOE/W'HAVEN 12% 48%

KUWAIT/SING 5% 52%

PUERTO LA CRUZ/C CHRISTI 2% 50%

SERIA/SYDNEY 4% 50%

PRIMORSK/W'HAVEN 40% 50%

CEYHAN/LAVERA 37% 57%


ARUBA/NY 50% 57%

ANTWERP/HOUSTON 50% 62%


ODESSA/AUGUSTA 25% 50%

TALLINN/AMSTERDAM 11% 51%

MILFORD/LAVERA 27% 75%

NOVO/TRIESTE 25% 60%

V'SPILS/ANTWERP 11% 55%

Sub‐Sector Weighted Average 60%

MR‐DPP ‐ 20% of MR2 Basket

VLCC

SUEZMAX

AFRAMAX / LR2 DIRTY

PANAMAX / LR1 DPP

Laden %Dirty Route Weight


AG/R'DAM 16% 55%

R'DAM/S. KOREA ‐ NAPHTHA 22% 89%



MID EAST/R'DAM 27% 56%

R'DAM/S. KOREA ‐ NAPHTHA 18% 96%


R'DAM/NY 14% 52%

ARUBA/USAC 6% 59%

V'SPILS/AMSTERDAM 16% 50%

SKIKDA/SALVADORE 9% 62%

SKIKDA/AMSTERDAM 15% 50%

SKIKDA/LAVERA 5% 14%

HOUSTON/AMSTERDAM 35% 72%


SING/CHIBA 12% 92%

SING/SYDNEY 12% 95%

RAS TANURA/CHIBA 20% 76%

RAS TANURA/MOMBASA 20% 66%

YOSU/LA 2% 82%

YOSU/SING 3% 68%

SIKKA/CHIBA 31% 80%


V'SPILS/LE HAVRE 100% 50%

Clean Route Laden %Weight

HANDY ‐ WEST

MR ‐ EAST ‐ 40% of MR2 basket

MR ‐ WEST ‐ 40 % of MR2 basket

LR1

LR2

Basket of routes assessed

Notes on weightingof routes in basketBaskets comprise weighted average of routes assessed weekly by Braemar ACM brokers (baskets shown below). Weighting based on past 12 month's Braemar ACM spot fixture data for 'proxy' voyages. (i.e. the LR2 route CONT / FAR EAST is assumed to be proxy for all fixtures loading out of the Baltic, N Sea, Med and N Africa to ALL Eastern destinations). This weighting of routes within basket may be adjusted over time.Notes on Laden %We calculate earnings on each route based on a ‘likely’ ballast leg to the load port + laden leg. The likely ballast leg tries to estimate – based on brokers’ position lists ‐ how far the ‘average’ vessel ballasts to that load port. So while a VLCC Mid East to Japan voyage can expect to average out little better than a round voyage, a Caribbean to Singapore will generally take ballasters from the USG and average out at about 85% laden. Notes on Speed & ConsumptionThis is our assessment based on owner's performance guarantees in recent TC contracts.



Tanker Sector Earnings Comparison

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

VLCC premium over Suezmaxquarterly average

TD3 vs. TD5 $k/day

‐20

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Suezmax premium over Aframaxquarterly average

TD5 vs. TD7 $k/day

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

LR2 premium over LR1quarterly average

TC1 vs. TC5 $k/day

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

VLCC premium over SuezmaxAnnual average

$k/day NB Price $MnTD3 vs. TD5

Frontline VLCC vs. Suezmax

NB VLCC Price vs. NB Suezmax Price

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

Suezmax premium over AframaxAnnual average

$k/day NB Price $Mn

TD5 vs. TD7 Teekay Suezmax vs. Aframax

NB Suezmax Price vs. NB Aframax Price

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

LR2 premium over LR1Annual average

$k/day NB Price $Mn

TC1 vs. TC5

TORM LR2 vs. LR1

NB LR2 Price vs. NB LR1 Price



Tanker Sector Earnings Comparison

‐20

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

LR1 premium over Panamaxquarterly average

TC5 vs. TD12 $k/day

‐60

‐50

‐40

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

LR2 premium over Aframaxquarterly average

TC1 vs. TD7 $k/day

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

LR1 premium over MR2quarterly average

TC5 vs. TC2 $k/day

‐10

‐8

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

LR1 premium over PanamaxAnnual average

$k/day

TC5 vs. TD12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

LR1 premium over MR2Annual average $k/day NB Price $Mn

TC5 vs. TC2 TORM LR1 vs. MR2

NB LR1 Price vs. NB MR2 Price

‐20

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

LR2 premium over AframaxAnnual average $k/day

TC1 vs. TD7

Teekay LR2 vs. Aframax



Average Vessel Speeds

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5 Knots

Laden Ballast

Source: Braemar ACM

VLCC Average L/B Speed

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5 Knots

Laden Ballast

Source: Braemar ACM

Suezmax Average L/B Speed

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5 Knots

Laden Ballast

Source: Braemar ACM

Aframax Average L/B Speed

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5 Knots

Laden Ballast

Source: Braemar ACM

MR2 Average L/B Speed

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5 Knots

Laden Ballast

Source: Braemar ACM

Handy Average L/B Speed

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5 Knots

Laden Ballast

Source: Braemar ACM

LR1 Average L/B Speed

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5 Knots

Laden Ballast

Source: Braemar ACM

LR2 Average L/B Speed



3.07.5

15.919.2

13.510.4 11.7

29.1

14.8

27.7

17.0

8.1 7.9

16.5

27.0 27.930.0

20.217.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

Scenario 1: Tanker fleet growth (>25k DWT)

m dwt

Scenario 1: Removal at recent average retirement age

Tanker Supply Growth Assumptions 1 Includes es mate of future orders, slippage and cancella ons of cur‐rent orderbook. FORECAST for 2015 and beyond assumes ordering con‐

nues somewhere between a) the previous 12 month average levels of contrac ng, b) the 10 year average levels of contrac ng EXCLUDING orders subsequently cancelled / switched, c) the same average for the most recent 4 years. This aims to reflect recent shi s in ordering prefer‐ence. It further assumes that 80% of Aframax orders and 100% of Pana‐max orders (for dirty trades) are coated. 2 Removed during year from trading fleet. This is NOT the total number scrapped, as many scrapped ships have already been removed from the trading fleet (overage, lay up, restricted trading, floa ng storage etc.). FORECAST for removal assumes a) average removal of trading fleet as specified b) 50% of non‐trading FSO will require replacement from the trading fleet on or around their respec ve recent average re rement age. 3 Delivered ships FORECAST assumes a) a certain % of each years orders will be delayed into subsequent years b) a small por on or today's or‐derbook will be cancelled (done on a case by case basis) c) 10% of fu‐ture contracts will deliver two years a er the year contract signed , 80% will deliver three years a er contract signed. and 10% 4 years a er signing NO Allowance is made here for changes in temporary floa ng storage employment

3.0 7.5

15.919.2

13.510.4 11.7

29.1

14.8

27.7

17.0

8.1 7.9 3.1

‐9.4‐12.0

‐5.8

5.3 4.2

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

Scenario 2: Tanker fleet growth (>25k DWT)

Net Fleet Growth (see 1) Removed (see 2)

Deliveries no future orders Deliveries incl future orders (see 3)

m dwt

Removal at 15 yrs

Fleet at start of year ‐ history(# of ships)

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

VLCC 418 418 437 457 464 470 474 494 513 559 590 602 619

SUEZMAX 232 240 253 269 285 287 284 323 348 385 415 429 427

AFRAMAX/LR2 508 555 579 621 655 685 717 795 831 862 875 868 863

AFRAMAX 434 471 487 519 538 555 558 596 605 625 624 611 594

LR2 74 84 92 102 117 130 159 199 226 237 251 257 269

LR2 Clean 45 52 56 65 75 80 98 123 144 154 162 166 172

PANAMAX/LR1 324 304 319 340 358 369 388 410 405 418 415 411 404

PANAMAX 239 215 206 197 188 160 144 134 107 99 93 83 77

LR1 85 89 113 143 170 209 244 276 298 319 322 328 327

LR1 Clean 52 55 68 92 109 128 151 166 162 171 181 196 191

MR2 329 374 450 520 582 664 776 892 947 1004 1035 1101 1172

HANDY 626 626 632 648 662 658 667 678 633 633 625 622 634

Total (# of ships) 2761 2821 2989 3195 3364 3502 3694 4002 4082 4279 4370 4444 4523

Total (m DWT) 289 296 312 331 345 355 367 396 411 439 456 464 472

% LR2 Trading Clean 61 62 61 64 64 61 62 62 64 65 65 65 64

% LR1 Trading Clean 61 62 61 64 64 61 62 60 54 54 56 60 58

Clean Trading (m DWT) 48 51 56 63 69 75 85 95 98 103 105 110 115

Dirty Trading (m DWT) 241 245 256 268 276 280 282 301 313 336 350 353 357

Fleet at start of year ‐ forecast

No Future Ordering Incl. Future Orderingvessels retire at: vessels retire at:

Recent Avg. Exit Age (page 5) 15 Yrs Recent Avg. Exit Age (page 5) 15 Yrs

'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

VLCC 619 641 684 710 711 700 619 622 607 574 528 499 619 22 66 106 152 184 619 622 608 588 587 604

SUEZMAX 427 433 458 483 481 471 427 423 414 400 370 349 427 6 31 72 108 136 427 423 415 416 424 441

AFRAMAX/LR2 863 891 928 968 962 938 863 868 846 812 720 664 863 28 65 117 174 212 863 868 846 824 796 802

AFRAMAX 594 590 599 613 606 587 594 573 536 493 414 367 594 ‐4 5 24 47 56 594 573 536 498 449 432

LR2 269 300 329 355 356 351 269 295 310 319 306 296 269 31 60 92 127 155 269 295 310 326 346 371

LR2 Clean 172 198 217 234 235 232 172 195 204 210 202 196 172 21 40 61 84 102 172 194 203 214 227 227

PANAMAX/LR1 404 402 421 434 434 426 404 394 396 391 369 337 404 ‐2 18 40 67 86 404 394 397 401 407 402

PANAMAX 77 70 70 69 66 62 77 66 57 43 30 24 77 ‐7 ‐7 ‐8 ‐10 ‐14 77 66 57 44 32 26

LR1 327 332 351 365 368 365 327 328 339 348 339 313 327 5 25 47 77 100 327 328 340 358 375 376

LR1 Clean 191 195 206 214 216 214 191 193 199 204 199 184 191 3 14 28 45 59 191 193 199 210 220 220

MR2 1172 1279 1342 1349 1337 1308 1172 1260 1267 1211 1139 1070 1172 107 172 202 229 239 1172 1260 1269 1237 1203 1174

HANDY 634 640 648 642 627 604 634 625 574 506 431 379 634 6 15 16 9 ‐5 634 625 575 514 448 404

Total (# of ships) 4523 4687 4902 5018 4985 4874 4523 4585 4500 4285 3927 3635 4523 164 384 591 807 938 4523 4585 4505 4381 4272 4229

Total (m DWT) 472 488 515 532 530 520 472 476 466 444 406 379 472 17 43 71 101 122 472 476 466 454 448 454

% LR2 Trading Clean 64 66 66 66 66 66 64 66 66 66 66 66 64 66 66 66 66 66 64 66 66 66 66 66

% LR1 Trading Clean 58 59 59 59 59 59 58 59 59 59 59 59 58 59 59 59 59 59 58 59 59 59 59 59

Clean Trading (m DWT) 115 123 130 132 131 129 115 121 121 117 110 103 115 8 15 20 25 28 115 121 121 120 118 115

Dirty Trading (m DWT) 357 365 385 400 399 391 357 354 344 326 296 277 357 8 29 52 77 94 357 354 345 335 330 339



Tanker Fleet Growth by Sector

Fleet growth (%) ‐ history

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

VLCC 4.5 4.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 4.2 3.8 9.0 5.5 2.0 2.8 10.5

SUEZMAX 3.4 5.4 6.3 5.9 0.7 ‐1.0 13.7 7.7 10.6 7.8 3.4 ‐0.5 7.1

AFRAMAX/LR2 9.3 4.3 7.3 5.5 4.6 4.7 10.9 4.5 3.7 1.5 ‐0.8 ‐0.6 7.6

AFRAMAX 8.5 3.4 6.6 3.7 3.2 0.5 6.8 1.5 3.3 ‐0.2 ‐2.1 ‐2.8 0.8

LR2 13.5 9.5 10.9 14.7 11.1 22.3 25.2 13.6 4.9 5.9 2.4 4.7 22.5

LR2 Clean 13.7 9.1 15.9 14.7 6.5 22.5 26.1 16.6 6.8 5.4 2.5 3.8 26.0

PANAMAX/LR1 ‐6.2 4.9 6.6 5.3 3.1 5.1 5.7 ‐1.2 3.2 ‐0.7 ‐1.0 ‐1.7 4.2

PANAMAX ‐10.0 ‐4.2 ‐4.4 ‐4.6 ‐14.9 ‐10.0 ‐6.9 ‐20.1 ‐7.5 ‐6.1 ‐10.8 ‐7.2 ‐9.3

LR1 4.7 27.0 26.5 18.9 22.9 16.7 13.1 8.0 7.0 0.9 1.9 ‐0.3 7.4

LR1 Clean 5.8 24.0 33.8 18.9 17.9 17.9 9.5 ‐2.2 5.3 5.6 8.7 ‐2.6 7.9

MR2 13.7 20.3 15.6 11.9 14.1 16.9 14.9 6.2 6.0 3.1 6.4 6.4 14.5

HANDY 1.0 2.5 2.2 ‐0.6 1.4 1.6 ‐6.6 ‐1.3 ‐0.5 1.9 2.2

Total (# of ships) 3.9 6.8 8.3 6.4 5.0 6.4 10.4 2.9 5.6 2.4 1.5 1.7 9.8

Total (m DWT) 2.6 5.4 6.2 4.1 3.0 3.3 7.9 3.7 6.7 3.9 1.8 1.7 5.6

Clean Trading (m DWT) 6.7 10.9 12.0 9.4 8.6 12.9 12.0 3.4 4.7 2.8 4.6 3.9 13.2

Dirty Trading (m DWT) 1.8 4.2 4.9 2.8 1.6 0.7 6.7 3.8 7.4 4.2 0.9 1.0 7.8

Fleet growth (%) ‐ forecast

No Future Ordering Incl. Future Orderingvessels retire at: vessels retire at:

Recent Avg. Exit Age (page 5) 15 Yrs Recent Avg. Exit Age (page 5) 15 Yrs

'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

VLCC 3.6 6.7 3.9 0.1 ‐1.6 ‐2.5 3.6 ‐2.3 ‐5.5 ‐8.0 ‐5.5 ‐5.9 3.6 6.8 5.8 6.4 4.2 3.4 3.6 ‐2.2 ‐3.3 ‐0.1 2.8 2.6

SUEZMAX 1.4 5.7 5.6 ‐0.5 ‐2.0 ‐2.8 1.4 ‐2.1 ‐3.2 ‐7.7 ‐5.7 ‐6.1 1.4 5.9 8.8 7.3 5.2 4.5 1.4 ‐1.9 0.3 1.9 4.2 3.9

AFRAMAX/LR2 3.2 4.3 4.2 ‐0.6 ‐2.5 ‐3.2 3.2 ‐2.6 ‐4.0 ‐11.3 ‐7.9 ‐8.4 3.2 4.2 5.5 5.9 3.6 3.1 3.2 ‐2.6 ‐2.6 ‐3.4 0.8 0.9

AFRAMAX ‐0.7 1.5 2.3 ‐1.1 ‐3.1 ‐3.9 ‐0.7 ‐6.5 ‐8.1 ‐16.0 ‐11.4 ‐12.5 ‐0.7 1.5 3.2 3.7 1.5 1.0 ‐0.7 ‐6.5 ‐7.0 ‐9.9 ‐3.9 ‐3.8

LR2 11.7 9.6 7.7 0.3 ‐1.4 ‐2.1 11.7 5.0 2.9 ‐4.1 ‐3.1 ‐3.4 11.7 9.6 9.7 9.7 7.0 6.2 11.7 5.0 5.1 6.4 7.0 6.4

LR2 Clean 11.7 9.6 7.7 0.3 ‐1.4 ‐2.1 11.7 5.0 2.9 ‐4.1 ‐3.1 ‐3.4 11.7 9.6 9.7 9.7 7.0 6.2 11.7 5.0 5.1 6.4 7.1 6.9

PANAMAX/LR1 ‐0.5 4.8 3.0 0.0 ‐1.7 ‐2.2 ‐0.5 0.6 ‐1.2 ‐5.5 ‐8.8 ‐12.5 ‐0.5 4.9 5.2 6.2 4.1 3.6 ‐0.5 0.7 1.2 1.4 ‐1.3 ‐3.7

PANAMAX ‐8.9 ‐0.4 ‐1.5 ‐4.3 ‐6.5 ‐7.2 ‐8.9 ‐13.4 ‐24.4 ‐29.4 ‐20.5 ‐49.7 ‐8.9 ‐0.3 ‐0.6 ‐3.4 ‐5.5 ‐6.0 ‐8.9 ‐13.3 ‐23.4 ‐27.5 ‐17.7 ‐43.7

LR1 1.4 5.9 3.9 0.9 ‐0.8 ‐1.4 1.4 3.4 2.6 ‐2.6 ‐7.7 ‐0.1 1.4 6.0 6.4 8.0 5.7 5.0 1.4 3.5 5.3 4.9 0.1 ‐0.9

LR1 Clean 1.4 5.9 3.9 0.9 ‐0.8 ‐1.4 1.4 3.4 2.6 ‐2.6 ‐7.7 ‐0.1 1.4 6.0 6.4 8.0 5.7 5.0 1.4 3.5 5.3 4.9 0.1 ‐0.9

MR2 9.1 4.9 0.5 ‐0.9 ‐2.1 ‐2.5 9.1 0.6 ‐4.4 ‐6.0 ‐6.0 ‐6.8 9.1 5.1 2.2 2.0 0.7 0.5 9.1 0.7 ‐2.5 ‐2.7 ‐2.4 ‐2.9

HANDY 0.9 1.3 ‐0.9 ‐2.3 ‐3.6 ‐4.1 0.9 ‐8.2 ‐11.9 ‐14.7 ‐12.0 ‐13.5 0.9 1.4 0.2 ‐1.0 ‐2.3 ‐2.7 0.9 ‐8.1 ‐10.6 ‐12.8 ‐9.7 ‐10.6

Total (# of ships) 4.2 5.4 3.2 ‐0.8 ‐2.1 ‐2.8 4.2 ‐2.4 ‐5.5 ‐10.5 ‐8.9 ‐10.2 4.2 5.5 5.3 5.3 3.6 3.1 4.2 ‐1.5 ‐2.4 ‐2.1 ‐0.5 ‐0.9

Total (m DWT) 3.5 5.4 3.5 ‐0.4 ‐2.0 ‐2.8 3.5 ‐2.1 ‐4.7 ‐8.5 ‐6.5 ‐7.3 3.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 3.5 2.9 3.5 ‐2.0 ‐2.6 ‐1.3 1.2 0.9

Clean Trading (m DWT) 12.5 9.8 3.9 ‐1.4 ‐4.1 ‐5.0 12.5 0.1 ‐3.4 ‐6.5 ‐6.5 ‐7.3 12.5 10.0 7.4 7.6 4.6 4.0 12.5 0.2 ‐1.5 ‐1.4 ‐1.0 ‐1.4

Dirty Trading (m DWT) 14.4 34.2 25.9 ‐1.7 ‐13.5 ‐18.8 14.4 ‐2.8 ‐5.2 ‐9.2 ‐6.6 ‐7.3 14.5 34.7 39.1 42.5 29.2 25.1 14.5 ‐2.7 ‐3.0 ‐1.2 2.0 1.7



Newbuilding Delivery Forecast

NB orders Placed (Year ordered) see note 1 on page 17

(# of ships excluding cancelled or switched)

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

ytd

'15

VLCC 14 59 39 37 98 45 58 14 45 7 18 46 36 45 45 45 45 45 45 40 39 30

SUEZMAX 12 51 25 9 74 31 20 34 48 5 2 43 39 39 39 39 39 39 30 28 20

AFRAMAX 33 73 50 33 84 46 27 2 15 2 6 15 7 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 34 9

LR2 9 22 14 22 65 32 7 2 14 2 12 58 17 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 18 21

PANAMAX 8 31 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1

LR1 33 53 46 15 61 41 17 12 16 3 3 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 22 27 10

MR2 68 104 102 96 205 142 32 6 28 53 92 175 25 39 39 39 39 39 39 20 84 75

HANDY 27 85 73 41 71 32 19 6 14 5 7 37 19 8 8 8 8 8 8 1 35 16

Total (# of ships) 204 478 350 253 658 369 180 76 180 72 143 333 179 222 222 222 222 222 222 177 269 181

Total (million DWT) 18.5 51.8 34.7 26.7 76.8 39.2 28.8 11.6 28.1 5.7 13.6 33.2 25.1 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 27.3 30.5 21.1

Cancelation of NB Orders (# of ships)NBs cancelled prior construction + orders switched

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

VLCC ‐15 ‐8 ‐29 ‐10 ‐10 ‐3 0 ‐1 ‐1 0 0 ‐1 ‐1

SUEZMAX ‐2 ‐17 ‐13 ‐7 ‐2 ‐6 ‐6 0 ‐1 ‐1 0

AFRAMAX ‐4 ‐4 ‐8 ‐3 ‐3 ‐6 ‐5 0 0 ‐1 0 0 ‐1

LR2 ‐4 ‐6 0 ‐1 ‐1 0

PANAMAX 0 0

LR1 ‐3 ‐2 ‐14 ‐3 ‐3 0 0 0 0 0 0

MR2 ‐1 ‐2 ‐12 ‐13 ‐56 ‐18 ‐8 ‐17 ‐1 ‐1 ‐2 0 0 ‐1 ‐3

HANDY ‐1 ‐6 ‐2 ‐9 ‐21 ‐8 ‐13 ‐1 ‐1 0 0 0 0

Total (m DWT) ‐0.1 ‐0.3 ‐1.7 ‐9.0 ‐10.0 ‐11.8 ‐4.9 ‐6.1 ‐3.4 ‐0.2 ‐0.7 ‐0.5 ‐0.1 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.6

Slippage of Existing NB Orders (# of ships)Net Change Due Slippage

'15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

VLCC ‐1 ‐5 0 2 1 0

SUEZMAX 0 ‐3 ‐2 2 1 0

AFRAMAX 0 ‐2 ‐2 1 1 0

LR2 ‐1 ‐3 ‐1 2 1 0

PANAMAX 0 0 0

LR1 ‐1 ‐2 0 1 1 0

MR2 ‐5 ‐6 4 3 1 0

HANDY ‐1 ‐2 1 1 0 0

Total (million DWT) ‐1.0 ‐3.1 ‐0.5 1.8 1.0 0.2

Delivery of 'Existing' NB Orders (year delivered) (# of ships) allowing for slippage / estimated cancellation / order switch

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

VLCC 36 34 28 31 18 28 39 52 59 65 48 30 24 24 48 34 11 2 0 12 40 45

SUEZMAX 23 20 23 21 23 23 14 45 37 43 45 17 8 8 30 32 6 1 0 7 29 30

AFRAMAX 27 67 42 47 35 42 36 54 36 41 21 6 2 4 18 24 8 1 0 1 41 21

LR2 7 11 9 10 15 13 31 42 32 13 18 8 14 32 31 29 6 1 0 21 18 17

PANAMAX 9 7 6 13 12 1 2 1 0 0 4

LR1 15 31 30 27 42 41 36 29 26 14 11 4 6 21 15 6 1 0 2 26 17

MR2 26 50 76 72 68 92 123 129 94 65 45 74 76 114 78 24 11 1 0 68 76 71

HANDY 32 53 52 51 57 53 51 46 28 23 11 5 20 13 19 7 3 0 0 6 42 17

Total (# of ships) 160 257 267 275 255 294 335 404 315 276 202 151 148 201 248 165 51 8 1 117 276 218

Total (million DWT) 22.0 28.8 26.6 28.2 23.3 28.4 33.1 45.1 40.0 39.4 30.3 18.4 15.5 19.6 31.8 24.3 7.2 1.3 0.2 11.1 31.4 28.7

Estimated Delivery of Future Orders'15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

VLCC 1 13 45 45 45

SUEZMAX 1 15 39 39 39

AFRAMAX 0 6 30 30 30

LR2 0 7 34 34 34

PANAMAX 0 1 1 1 1

LR1 0 9 27 27 27

MR2 2 23 39 39 39

HANDY 1 8 8 8 8

Total (million DWT) 0.5 10.1 31.9 31.9 31.9

ytd

'15

Avg

'02‐

'12

Avg

'10‐

'14

ytd

'15

Avg

'02‐

'12

Avg

'10‐

'14

Avg

'02‐

'12

Avg

'10‐

'14



Dirty Fleet Removal Trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

VLCC removal Average age and number by year

# of vessels scrapped ‐ trading + non‐trading (LHS)

# of vessels exiting trading fleet (LHS)

Average age of exit from trading fleet (RHS)

Avg Age# of ships

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Suezmax removal Average age and number by year




Avg Age# of ships

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Aframax removal Average age and number by year

# of vessels scrapped ‐ trading + non‐trading(LHS)


Avg Age# of ships

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Panamax removal Average age and number by year




Avg Age# of ships



Clean Fleet Removal Trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LR2 removal Average age and number by year




Avg Age# of ships

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LR1 removal Average age and number by year




Avg Age# of ships

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

MR removal Average age and number by year




Avg Age# of ships

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Handy removal Average age and number by year




Avg Age# of ships



Scrapping / Removal Forecast

¹Non‐Trading includes tankers in restricted trades; overage for mineral oil trades; converted or in use as long‐term storage but excludes tankers converted to FPSO, Drybulk, Heavyli etc.

²Other removals include vessels leaving the trading fleet for reasons other than scrapping, e.g. conversion to FPSO, FSO, heavy li , etc. or entering ‘sheltered’ trades

SCRAPPING Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3e

Q4e

VLCC of which

‐ Trading 0 2 1 0 3 0 0 1 1 2 5 8 11

Avg. Age 0 20 21 0 20 0 0 19 19 19 19 19 19

‐ Non‐Trading¹ 3 0 0 1 9 1 1 0 1 3 2 7 4

Avg. Age 24 0 0 25 23 23 39 0 32 31 34 27 28

Suezmax of which

‐ Trading 2 3 0 2 7 0 0 1 1 2 5 6 9

Avg. Age 20 20 0 21 20 0 0 19 19 19 19 19 19

‐ Non‐Trading¹ 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 2 4 3 3

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 25 0 40 0 36 39 32 34 30

Aframax of which

‐ Trading 4 7 2 3 16 3 1 1 2 8 9 10 15

Avg. Age 22 20 24 21 21 22 23 19 19 21 19 19 19

‐ Non‐Trading¹ 0 0 1 1 7 0 0 1 1 2 5 5 3

Avg. Age 0 0 22 29 25 0 0 30 33 32 32 33 33

LR2 of which

‐ Trading 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 5

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 19 19 19 19 19

‐ Non‐Trading¹ 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Panamax of which

‐ Trading Unit 1 0 0 3 4 5 1 0 1 7 2 2 3

Avg. Age 21 0 0 20 20 22 23 19 19 22 19 19 19

‐ Non‐Trading¹ 0 1 1 0 4 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 2

Avg. Age 0 18 28 0 24 0 0 0 26 27 29 32 29

LR1 of which

‐ Trading 1 1 2 0 4 1 0 0 0 2 2 2 3

Avg. Age 28 27 24 0 26 25 0 19 19 23 19 19 19

‐ Non‐Trading¹ 2 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1

Avg. Age 27 0 29 0 26 0 0 0 26 26 26 27 27

MR2 of which

‐ Trading 2 1 0 1 4 0 1 2 4 7 15 17 23

Avg. Age 24 26 0 27 25 0 23 19 19 20 19 19 19

‐ Non‐Trading¹ 1 2 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 2

Avg. Age 27 18 31 0 24 28 0 0 0 28 31 29 29

Handy of which

‐ Trading 3 3 0 2 8 1 2 2 3 7 11 13 18

Avg. Age 24 23 0 29 25 25 22 19 19 21 19 19 19

‐ Non‐Trading¹ 5 7 2 1 16 5 4 4 2 15 8 7 4

Avg. Age 23 28 28 24 26 28 26 25 30 27 30 31 31

AVG SCRAP AGE

‐ Trading Fleet 23 21 24 22 22 23 23 19 19 21 19 19 19

‐ Non‐Trading Fleet¹ 25 25 28 26 25 27 30 23 29 29 31 30 30

'OTHER' REMOVALS FROM TRADING FLEET ²

VLCC 1 1 2 1 3 2 0

Avg. Age 16 15 10 16 15 11 0

SUEZMAX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

AFRAMAX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LR2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PANAMAX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LR1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MR2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HANDY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avg. Age 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total

2017e

2015 Total

2015e

Total

2016e

Total

2014

2014 Total

2018e



Quarterly Deliveries

Quarterly Removal

Removals¹ from Trading Fleet (average exit age) (# of ships) ‐ for detailed breakdown see page 30‐40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3e

Q4e

VLCC 1 3 3 1 8 2 0 1 1 4 5 8 11

SUEZMAX 2 3 0 5 10 0 0 1 1 2 5 6 9

AFRAMAX 4 8 2 5 19 3 2 1 2 9 9 10 15

LR2 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 5

PANAMAX 2 0 0 4 6 5 1 0 1 7 2 2 3

LR1 1 1 3 0 5 1 0 0 0 2 2 2 3

MR2 2 1 0 2 5 0 1 2 4 7 15 17 23

HANDY 3 3 0 2 8 1 2 2 3 7 11 13 18

Removals¹ from Trading Fleet (15 Yr old exit age)(# of ships)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3e

Q4e

VLCC 3 5 3 9 20 18 13 9 14 55 63 67 57

SUEZMAX 1 3 1 5 10 10 10 4 9 33 39 45 37

AFRAMAX 7 7 4 13 31 17 15 6 14 52 55 67 87

LR2 0 1 0 5 6 5 6 3 4 19 17 19 19

PANAMAX 1 0 0 3 4 6 4 2 4 15 11 15 13

LR1 1 2 1 1 5 3 2 2 2 9 10 7 15

MR2 0 0 0 13 13 24 22 7 18 71 71 80 83

HANDY 2 4 2 11 19 17 18 6 15 55 70 75 77

¹Either scrapped of converted or engaged in sheltered trade

2015

2015

Total

2017e

Total

2015e

Total

2016e

Total

2018e

Total

2015e

Total

2016e

Total

2018e

Total

2017e

2014 Total

2014

2014 Total

2014

Braemar ACM Forecast of NB Delivery (Quarterly)(# of ships) ‐ Existing Orders only

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3e

Q4e

VLCC ‐ Scheduled 8 9 26 54 35 9 3

‐ net of slippage1

6 8 2 8 24 8 8 25 49 32 8

Suezmax ‐ Scheduled 2 0 8 34 34 4 4


2 2 1 3 8 2 0 8 31 31 4

Aframax ‐ Scheduled 0 3 4 20 26 7 4


0 1 0 1 2 0 3 4 18 23 6

LR2 ‐ Scheduled 10 6 34 35 30 4 0


0 3 7 4 14 9 5 33 32 27 4

LR1 ‐ Scheduled 1 4 7 24 16 5 0


2 1 1 0 4 1 4 7 22 14 5

MR2 ‐ Scheduled 31 32 120 86 21 8 0


20 22 19 15 76 29 29 115 77 19 7

HANDY ‐ Scheduled 3 7 14 21 6 2 0


5 4 5 6 20 3 6 13 19 5 21

Verified orders only, excluding Options

Total

2017e

4 5

3 3

1 0

9 9

1 1

26 31

3 1

NB

Options

2014 Total

2014

Total

2015e

Total

2016e

Total

2018e

2015



‐23

0 7 16 14

‐4

8 2

‐46

‐4 ‐8 ‐5

11 0 6 5 8 10 7

‐60

‐40

‐20

0

20

40

60

80

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

Handy fleet growth

# of ships

0 0

19 20

7 6 4

20 19

46

29

11 13

19

43

2124

20

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

VLCC fleet growth

# of ships

11 813

16 162

‐3

38

25

36

28

13

‐3

5

20

40

30

2326

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

Suezmax fleet growth

# of ships

12

37

16

33

19 182

34

1318

‐3 ‐10‐18

‐9

518 18 16

6

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

Aframax fleet growth

# of ships

6

10 9 10

1513

29

40

28

10

15

6

12

31 30

16

12 11

60

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

LR2 fleet growth

# of ships

‐6

‐24

‐8 ‐8 ‐7

‐28

‐16 ‐16

‐23

‐7 ‐6 ‐9 ‐4 ‐8 ‐3 ‐2 0

3

0

‐40

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

Panamax fleet growth

# of ships

‐9

4

22

3028

3835

33

22 21

3 6 0 5

18

2419 20 20

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

LR1 fleet growth

# of ships

25

45

7670

62

82

113 113

57 56

31

6671

112

75

34

20 14 190

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

MR2 fleet growth

# of ships

Fleet Growth

¹includes Braemar ACM es mate of future ordering

including subsequently cancelled or switched. NO allowance has been made for temporary floa ng storage

0 0

19 20

7 6 4

20 19

46

31

1217

22

4340

46

3227

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

VLCC fleet growth

# of ships

11 813

16 162

‐3

39

25

37

30

14

‐2

6

26

4036

2825

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f


# of ships

11

37

16

32

19 173

38

9

20

‐1 ‐13‐17

‐4

919

23

9 6

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f


# of ships

6

108

10

1513

29

40

27

11

14

6

12

3129

3235

2826

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

LR2 fleet growth

# of ships

‐6

‐24

‐9 ‐9 ‐9

‐28

‐16

‐10

‐27

‐8 ‐6 ‐10 ‐6 ‐7 0 0 ‐2 ‐4 ‐4

‐40

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f


# of ships

‐9

4

24

3027

3935

32

22 21

3 6

‐1

5

2023

30

23 22

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

LR1 fleet growth

# of ships

25

45

7670

62

82

112 116

55 57

31

6671

107

65

30 2710 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

MR2 fleet growth

# of ships

‐23

0 6 16 14

‐4

9 11

‐45

0

‐8 ‐3

12 6 9 1

‐7 ‐15 ‐17

‐60

‐40

‐20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

Handy fleet growth

# of ships



Fleet Growth if 15 Yr Exit

¹includes Braemar ACM es mate of future ordering

including subsequently cancelled or switched. NO allowance has been made for temporary floa ng storage

‐23

0 6 16 14

‐4

9 11

‐45

0

‐8 ‐3

12

‐11

‐51‐61

‐66

‐44 ‐43

‐80

‐60

‐40

‐20

0

20

40

60

80

100

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

Handy fleet growth

# of ships

0 019 20

7 6 420 19

46

31

1217

1

‐14‐20

‐1

17 16

‐40

‐20

0

20

40

60

80

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

VLCC fleet growth

# of ships

11 8 1316 16

2

‐3

39

25

37

30

14

‐2 ‐5 ‐8

1 818 17

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f


# of ships

11

37

16

32

19 17 3

38

9 20

‐1 ‐13 ‐17 ‐21

‐37 ‐38

‐49

‐18 ‐16

‐60

‐40

‐20

0

20

40

60

80

100

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f


# of ships

6

108

10

1513

29

40

27

1114

6

12

25

15 16

21

24 24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

LR2 fleet growth

# of ships

‐6

‐24

‐9 ‐9 ‐9

‐28

‐16

‐10

‐27

‐8 ‐6 ‐10 ‐6‐11

‐9‐13 ‐12

‐6‐11

‐40

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f


# of ships

‐9

4

24

3027

3935

32

22 21

3 6

‐1

112

18 18

0

‐3

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

50

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

LR1 fleet growth

# of ships

2545

76 7062

82

112 116

55 57

31

66 71

88

9

‐32 ‐33 ‐29 ‐34

‐70

‐20

30

80

130

180

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f '17f '18f '19f '20f

MR2 fleet growth

# of ships



Speculation or replacement

‐100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

VLCC

Suezmax

Afram

ax

LR2

Afram

ax + LR2

Panam

ax

LR1

Panam

ax + LR1

MR

Handy

MR + Handy

Ordering ‐ speculation or replacement?Orderbook

Options+Unverified

Trading over 20 yrs

Fleet growth tolerance

Trading 15‐20 yrs

Hits 15 yrs by end 2016

Non‐Trading over 20 yrs

18 / 28

19 / 30 21 / 27

16 / ‐

24 / 27

23 / 26

23 / 28

23 / 2823 / 27

21 / ‐

24 / 27

Average Age Removed From Non‐Trading Fleet

# of ships

Average Age Removed From Trading Fleet



Oil market in context



World Economy & Oil Demand Outlook

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

How the IMF's forecast of annual GDP growth has changed over time

Oct‐13

Apr‐14

Oct‐14

Apr‐15

Apr‐14 Oct‐14 Apr‐15 Apr‐14 Oct‐14 Apr‐15 Apr‐14 Oct‐14 Apr‐15

World 3.9 3.8 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.8

United States 3.0 3.1 3.6 3.0 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.0 2.7

EU 27 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9

China 7.3 7.1 6.8 7.0 6.8 6.3 6.8 6.6 6.0

India 6.4 6.4 7.5 6.5 6.5 7.5 6.7 6.6 7.6

Japan 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.4

Brazil 2.7 1.4 ‐1.0 3.0 2.2 1.0 3.1 2.7 2.3

Source: IMF

Annual GDP Growth (%)2015 2016 2017

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

Jul 12

Oct 12

Jan 13

Apr 13

Jul 13

Oct 13

Jan 14

Apr 14

Jul 14

Oct 14

Jan 15

Apr 15

EUR/USDCNY/USDYuan & Euro vs. USD

Chinese Yuan (LHS) Euro (RHS)

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Jul 12

Oct 12

Jan 13

Apr 13

Jul 13

Oct 13

Jan 14

Apr 14

Jul 14

Oct 14

Jan 15

Apr 15

JPY/USDKRW/USDKRW & JPY vs. USD

Korean Won (LHS) Japanese Yen (RHS)

83.3

84.785.6

87.186.3

85.5

88.3

88.9

90.2

91.992.6

94.2

95.6

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

m b/d Global Oil Demand Forecast (IEA) as of August 2015

+1.3+1.7

+2.8

+ 0.6

+0.8

+1.6+1.4

‐4

‐3

‐2

‐1

0

1

2

3

4

Date of forecast

How the IEA's forecast of annual oil demand growth

(m b/d) has changed over time

2009

2008

2010

2011

2012

2014

2013

2015

2016

August 2015

‐$10

‐$2

$6

$14

$22

$30

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

Jan‐2009

Jul‐2009

Jan‐2010

Jul‐2010

Jan‐2011

Jul‐2011

Jan‐2012

Jul‐2012

Jan‐2013

Jul‐2013

Jan‐2014

Jul‐2014

Jan‐2015

Jul‐2015

Brent vs WTI ($/bbl)Brent (LHS)

WTI (LHS)

Spread (RHS)

‐$6

‐$2

$2

$6

$10

$14

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

Jan‐2009

Jul‐2009

Jan‐2010

Jul‐2010

Jan‐2011

Jul‐2011

Jan‐2012

Jul‐2012

Jan‐2013

Jul‐2013

Jan‐2014

Jul‐2014

Jan‐2015

Jul‐2015

Brent vs Dubai ($/bbl)

Brent (LHS)

Dubai (LHS)

Spread (RHS)



Regional Oil Demand Outlook Source: IEA—August 2015

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

India Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

China Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

18.0

18.4

18.8

19.2

19.6

20.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

USA Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Europe Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Japan Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Korea Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Russia Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Brazil Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Saudi Arabia Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Canada Demand (m b/d)

Range 10‐14

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012



‐0.100.12 0.10 0.05 0.04

‐0.30‐0.30 ‐0.30

0.21

‐0.12‐0.10

0.08

‐0.08

0.12

0.63

0.20

0.68 0.50 0.40

0.03

‐0.06

0.150.20

0.30

0.12

0.25

0.09 0.17

0.03

0.05

0.090.82

0.03 0.11

0.45

0.08

0.18

0.03

0.74

0.12

0.00

0.30

0.12

0.27

‐0.47‐0.22

‐0.16

‐0.08

‐2.0

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

mb/d

Crude Distillation Capacity Additions & Deletions(Braemar ACM View ‐ Jul 2015)

Japan

India

Africa

Middle East

Latin America

Other Asia

China

FSU

OECD Pacific

Europe

OECD North America

Global Refinery Capacity

RED = Refinery Closure

ORANGE = Condensate Spli er Addi ons

BLUE = Braemar ACM Upgrading Addi ons

UNDERLINE = Braemar ACM Forecast differs from the IEA. See Quarterly Outlook Part II ‐ Clean Report pages 16‐25

Braemar ACM Forecast of Refinery Capacity Addi ons 2014‐2020

‐0.100.12 0.10 0.05 0.04

‐0.30

‐0.15

0.21

‐0.12

‐0.10

0.08

‐0.08

0.12

0.63

0.20

0.68 0.50 0.40

0.03

‐0.06

0.150.20

0.30

0.12

0.25

0.09 0.17

0.03

0.05

0.090.82

0.03 0.11

0.45

0.08

0.18

0.03

0.74

0.12

0.00

0.30

0.12

0.27

‐0.47

‐0.22

‐0.16

‐0.08

‐2.0

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

mb/d

Crude Distillation Capacity Additions & DeletionsConsensus View (IEA's MTOMR Feb 15 + Updates)

Japan

India

Africa

Middle East

Latin America

Other Asia

China

FSU

OECD Pacific

Europe

OECD North America

Country Project Year Qrtr Capacity

United States kb/d

USA Kinder Morgan ‐ Houston Condensate Splitter 2014 Q1 50

USA Flint Hills Resources ‐ North Pole 2014 Q2 ‐95

USA Western Refining Inc. ‐ El Paso 2014 Q4 25

USA National Cooperative Refining Assoc. McPherson 2014 Q4 15

USA Marathon Petroleum ‐ Canton Condensate Splitter 2014 Q4 25

USA Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2014 64

USA Kinder Morgan ‐ Houston Condensate Splitter 2015 Q1 50

USA MDU Resources ‐ Dakota Prairie Refining 2015 Q2 20

USA Martin ‐ Corpus Christi Condensate Splitter 2015 Q2 100

USA Marathon Petroleum ‐ Catlettsburg Condensate Spli 2015 Q2 35

USA Castleton ‐ Corpus Christi Condensate Splitter 2015 Q2 100

USA Valero ‐ Houston Topping Unit 2015 Q4 90

USA Valero ‐ Corpus Christi Topping Unit 2015 Q4 70

USA Virtual Engineering ‐ Allen Parish 2015 Q4 20

USA Valero Energy Corp ‐ Sunray 2015 25

USA Holly Corp. ‐ Woods Cross 2015 14


USA The Three Affiliated Tribes ‐ Thunder Butte 2016 Q1 15

USA Calumet Montana Refining ‐ Great Falls 2016 Q1 20

USA Alon Refining ‐ Bakersfield 2016 65

USA Marathon Petroleum ‐ Robinson Topping Unit 2016 Q2 30

USA Magellan ‐ Corpus Christi Condensate Splitter 2016 Q4 50

USA Targa Resource ‐ Houston 2016 35

USA Martin Midstream Partners ‐ Corpus Christi 2016 100



Canada

Canada Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2014 18



Canada North West Redwater Partnership ‐ Edmonton 2017 Q1 50



Mexico kb/d

Mexico Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2014 9




Mexico Petroleos Mexicanos ‐ Tula Hidalgo 2019 40

South & Central America

Brazil Petrobras ‐ Pernambuco State Abreu e Lima 1 2014 Q4 115

Argentina Repsol YPF SA ‐ La Plata 2015 Q1 25

Jamaica Petrojam Ltd. ‐ Kingston 2015 Q2 20

Colombia Ecopetrol ‐ Cartagena, Bolivar 2015 Q2 85

S&C America Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2015 258

Venezuela Petroleos de Venezuela SA ‐ Santa Ines (Barinas) 2016 Q3 60

Venezuela Petroleos de Venezuela SA ‐ Puerto de la Cruz 2016 30

Peru Petroperu SA ‐ Talara, Piura 2017 Q2 33

Brazil Petrobras/Petroleos de Venezuela SA ‐ COMPERJ 2017 Q3 165


Brazil Petrobras ‐ Pernambuco State Abreu e Lima 2 2018 115


Colombia Ecopetrol ‐ Barrancaberneja‐Santander 2020 50


Singapore kb/d

Singapore JAC ‐ Jurong Island Condensate Splitter 2014 Q1 100

Australasia

Australia Caltex Refineries (NSW) Ltd. ‐ Kurnell 2014 Q4 ‐124

Australia BP PLC ‐ Bulwer Island 2015 Q2 ‐102

‐0.16



Global Refinery Capacity Changes Country Project Year Qrtr Capacity

Europe kb/d

United Kingdom Essar ‐ Stanlow 2014 Q2 ‐55

Italy ENI ‐ Gela Refinery 2014 Q4 ‐105

United Kingdom Murphy Oil Co ‐ Milford Haven 2014 Q4 ‐135

Europe Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2014 111

Switzerland Tamoil ‐ Collombey Refinery 2015 Q1 ‐55

United Kingdom Total ‐ Lindsey Refinery 2015 Q1 ‐100


France Total ‐ La Mede Refinery 2016 Q4 ‐153


Turkey Socar ‐ Aliaga/Izmir 2018 214


FSU

Russia Antipinsky Refinery ‐ Antipinsky 2014 Q1 75

FSU Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2014 87

Russia Novatek ‐ Ust‐Luga 2015 70



Kazakhstan Kazmunigaz/CNPC ‐ Chimkent 2017 120





Middle East

Iraq South Refining Company ‐ Basra 2014 Q1 70

Iraq Kar‐Group ‐ Erbil 2014 Q4 20

Middle East Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2014 332

Saudi Arabia Aramco Sinopec ‐ Yanbu 2015 Q1 400

UAE Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. ‐ Ruwais2 2015 Q1 417


Qatar QatarPetroleum ‐ Ras Laffan 2 2016 Q3 146

Iran National Iranian Oil ‐ Persian Gulf Star Refinery 1 2016 120

Oman Sohar Bitumen Refinery ‐ Sohar 2016 30



Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco ‐ Sumitomo ‐ Rabigh 2 2017 50

Oman Oman Refinery Co. ‐ Sohar 2017 60

Iraq Qaiwan ‐ Baizan 2018 Q1 50

Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco ‐ Jizan 2018 400



Yemen Yemen ‐ Hunt ‐ Marib 2019 15

Kuwait Kuwait National Petroleum Co. ‐ Mina Abdulla 2019 65


Bahrain Bahrain Petroleum Co. ‐ Sitra 1 2020 350

Bahrain Bahrain Petroleum Co. ‐ Sitra 2020 ‐262

Bahrain Bahrain Petroleum Co. ‐ Sitra 2 2020 88


Other Asia Pacific

Thailand Thai Oil Co. Ltd. ‐ Sriracha 2014 30

Other Asia Pac Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2014 277

Taiwan Chinese Petroleum Corp. ‐ Kaohsiung 2015 Q4 ‐205

Pakistan Byco Baluchistan ‐ Pakistan 2015 Q2 120

Thailand PTT PLC ‐ Bangchak Bangkok 2015 20

Pakistan Attock Refinery Ltd. ‐ Rawalpindi 2015 10


Taiwan Chinese Petroleum Corp. ‐ Ta‐Lin 2016 150


Vietnam Petro vietnam/KPC/Idemitsu Kosan ‐ Nghi Son 2017 Q3 200



Malaysia Petronas ‐ Rapid 2019 Q1 300

Korea

South Korea Samsung Total ‐ Daesan Condensate Splitter 2014 Q3 140

South Korea SK Energy ‐ Inchon Condensate Splitter 2014 Q3 140

South Korea Hyundai Chemical ‐ Daesan Condensate Splitter 2016 Q3 140


North Africa kb/d

Algeria Naftec SPA ‐ Arzew 2016 25

North Africa Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2017 34

Egypt MIDOR ‐ Alexandria 2018 60

North Africa Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2019 30

West Africa

West Africa Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2017 23

Nigeria Dangote Oil Refining Company ‐ Lagos 2018 650

Angola Sonangol ‐ Lobito 2019 120

West Africa Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2019 20

East & Southern Africa

Uganda Total/Tullow/CNOOC ‐ Albertine Graben 2018 30

India kb/d

India Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2014 69

India Indian Oil Co. Ltd. ‐ Paradip 2015 Q1 300


India Nagarjuna oil Co ‐ Cuddalore 2016 120



India Indian Oil Co. Ltd. ‐ Koyali, Gujarat 2018 86

India BPCL ‐ Kochi 2018 120

India Indian Oil Co. Ltd. ‐ Panipat 2018 60


Japan

Japan Tonen/General Sekiyu Seisei KK ‐ Kawasaki 2014 Q1 ‐67

Japan KPI ‐ Chiba 2014 Q2 ‐23

Japan Cosmo Oil Co. Ltd ‐ Yokkoaichi 2014 Q2 ‐43

Japan JX Energy ‐ Muroran (in Hokkaido) 2014 Q2 ‐180

Japan Tonen/General Sekiyu Seisei KK ‐ Wakayama 2014 Q2 ‐38

Japan Idemitsu ‐ Shunan, Yamaguchi (Tokuyama) 2014 Q3 ‐120

Japan Cosmo Oil Co. Ltd. ‐ Chiba 2015 ‐48

Japan Tonen General + Kyokuto ‐ Unknown 2015 ‐76

Japan Petrobras ‐ Nansei Sekiyu 2015 ‐100

Japan Jx Energy ‐ Unknown 2016 ‐121

Japan Showa Shell ‐ Unknown 2016 ‐34

Japan Fuji Oil Co. Ltd. ‐ Unknown 2017 ‐13

Japan Idemitsu Kosan Co. Ltd. ‐ Ichihara, Chiba 2017 ‐50

Japan Taiyo Oil Co. Ltd. ‐ Unknown 2017 ‐13

China

China CNOOC ‐ Dongfang 2014 Q1 40

China China National Petroleum Corp. ‐ Pengzhou 2014 Q1 200

China Sinochem ‐ Quanzhou Fujian 2014 Q2 240

China Sinopec ‐ Yangzi 2014 Q3 90

China Sinopec ‐ Shijiazhuang 2014 Q3 60

China Braemar ACM Upgrading Estimate 2014 325

China Sinopec ‐ Jiujiang 2015 Q3 100

China CNPC ‐ Huabei 2015 100

China CNOOC ‐ Yanchang 2015 100


China China National Petroleum Corp. ‐ Daqing 2016 90

China CNOOC ‐ Taizhou 2016 60

China CNOOC/Local Ningbo Daxie ‐ Zhejiang 2016 140

China CNPC/Saudi Aramco ‐ Kunming/Anning 2016 260


China CNOOC ‐ Huizhou 2017 200

China Sinopec/KPC/Others ‐ Zhanjiang 2017 300


China CNPC/PDVSA ‐ Jieyang 2018 400





The tanker fleet Ordering, age, growth, control



Newbuildings: Verified vs. Unverified

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

4

4

5

6

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

4

4

4

10

1

1

2

OAK / SINCERE

AGELEF

CURZON

EAST MED

FEARNLEY FINANS ASA

FRONTLINE

GENMAR

METROSTAR

OCEANBULK GROUP

DHT

WILHELMSEN

AMCL / MING WAH

NAVIG8

GEMCO

GLOBAL ENERGY

LYKIARDOPOULO

ALPHA TANKERS

FRONTLINE

MEIJI SHPG

METROSTAR

THENAMARIS

COSCO

MOSK

AGELEF

CHINA SHPG

SINOKOR

BAHRI

Confirmed Unverified Options

2014

Hyundai HI

Daewoo

Hyundai Samho

Hyundai

3 x Dalian, 2 x SWS

Dalian

JMU

VLCC orders placed since Jan 14 by Owner

Confirmed = 36, Options = 1

2014 orders

JMU

2 x Subic, 2 x Gunsan, 2 x SWS

STX

JMU

Hyundai HI

Hyundai HI

Gunsan

Hyundai Samho

2015

Confirmed = 40, Unverified = 1, Options = 2

2015 orders

SWS

Daewoo

Daewoo

JMU

Subic

Mitsui

Daewoo

Dalian

Daewoo

Hyundai Samho

Hyundai HI

JMU

1

2

2

2

2

3

4

4

4

4

4

5

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

4

4

2

2

BP

DSS HOLDING LP

KYKLADES

NAT

SONANGOL

EASTERN PACIFIC

AGELEF

ARCADIA

CM LEMOS

FRONTLINE

POLEMBROS

TULSHYAN GROUP

CARGILL INC

T&T

AGELEF

ALPHA TANKERS

AMPTC

ARCADIA

BLUMENTHAL JMK

CARDIFF

FRONTLINE

GS LIVANOS

MINERVA

THENAMARIS

DYNACOM

ONDIMAR

Confirmed Options Unverified

2014

Suezmax orders placed since Jan 14 by Owner

Confirmed = 37

2014 orders

2015Confirmed = 30, Options = 4

2015 orders

Hyundai HI

Jiangsu

New Century

Sungdong

Hyundai Samho

Gunsan

Hyundai Samho

Daewoo

SWS

Daewoo

Hyundai HI

Hyundai Samho, Fully Coated

Hyundai HI

Mangalia

Gunsan x 2, HHI x2

STX

Hyundai Samho

Sungdong

Sungdong

Samsung

Hyundai Samho

New Century

New Century

Jiangsu

New Century

Navantia Puerto Real

1

2

2

2

1

1

2

2

2

4

4

4

4

6

4

SAMOS

EASTERN PACIFIC

LUNDQVIST

THENAMARIS

TCC

LUNDQVIST

T&T

THENAMARIS

TRANSPETROL

CERES SHIPPING

WAH KWONG

CARDIFF

JELLICOE TANKERS

NISSEN KAUIN


2014

Samsung

Sumitomo

Sasebo

Aframax orders placed since Jan 14 by Owner

Confirmed = 7

2014 orders

Samsung

Hyundai Samho

CIC Jiangsu

Sumitomo

2015

Confirmed = 30

2015 orders

Namura

Sumitomo

Sumitomo

Sungdong

SWS x2, Sumitomo x2

Daehan

Tsuneishi

3CHINA SHPG


2014

Panamax orders placed since Jan 14 by Owner

Confirmed = 3

2014 orders

2015

Shanhaiguan

No Orders in 2015



Newbuildings: Verified vs. Unverified

1

2

2

4

4

4

2

2

2

4

4

4

4

8

HALKIDON

THENAMARIS

LYRAS MARITIME

FRONTLINE

SCORPIO

SINOKOR

FRONTLINE

SCORPIO

SINOKOR

CARA SHPG

DONG‐A TANKER

NORD REEDEREI

CARDIFF

CHINA SHPG


2014

Mangalia

New Century

LR2 orders placed since Jan 14 by Owner

Confirmed = 17

2014 orders

Daehan

2015

Confirmed = 30

2015 orders

Sungdong

New Century

2 x Sungdong, 2 x Daehan

Daehan

Kleon

Sungdong

4 x Dalian, 4 x Longxue

2 x Samsung, 2 X Sumitomo

Hyundai Samho, Dry Conversions

Dalian x2, Qingdao Beihai x2

Jangsu Hangtong

2

2

2

2

2

4

12

1

1

1

1

2

3

4

4

5

JO TANKERS / ODFJELL

NISSHIN

PLEIADES

SAMOS

TSAKOS

BW SHPG

NAVIG8

GLOBAL ENERGY

GS LIVANOS

VALLES

PLEIADES

BW SHPG

SCORPIO

DAMICO/COGEMA

SINOKOR

COSCO


2014

Dalian

STX

8 x STX, 4 x SPP

STX

Sungdong, Dry Conversions

STX

LR1 orders placed since Jan 14 by Owner

Confirmed = 26

2014 orders

Vinashin

Onomichi

Hyundai HI

2015Confirmed = 222015 orders

New Century

Sungdong

STX

Onomichi

Sungdong

STX

STX

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

4

1

2

2

2

4

9

SAMOS

AP MOLLER

DAMICO/COGEMA

FLETAMENTOS MARITIMOS

YASA SHPG

COSCO

HAFNIA

PARAKOU

CENTRAL MARE

CURZON

ASAHI

SUMITOMO

SCORPIO

AP MOLLER


2014

Minami Nippon

GSI

Samsung (Ningbo)

Onomichi

GSI

MR orders placed since Jan 14 by Owner

Confirmed = 19

2014 orders

Hyundai Mipo

SPP

Vinashin

2015

Confirmed = 20

2015 orders

Onomichi

Sungdong

Vinashin

3 MAJ

SPP, Dry Conversions

Samsung (Ningbo)

1

2

2

2

3

6

1

SARGEANT MARINE

CPC

HAFNIA

WISBY TANKERS

PERTAMINA

ALTERNA CAPITAL

UNKNOWN


2014 Mipo

Handy orders placed since Jan 14 by Owner

Confirmed = 16

2014 orders

2015

Avic

CSBC Taiwan

Mipo

Mipo

New Century

Asakawa Confirmed = 1

2015 orders



VLCC Fleet Growth & Age Profile

37

32

31

30

27

25

24

21

18

16

14

14

14

14

14

12

12

12

10

10

10

12

2

2

4

9

NITC

NYK

BAHRI

MOSK

AMCL / MING WAH

AGELEF

EURONAV

FRONTLINE

SK

OMAN SHIP

DYNACOM

DS TANKERS

OTC

CHINA SHPG

COSCO

NAVIOS

KOTC

AET / MISC

BW SHPG

FORMOSA

OSG

VLCC Fleet Top Owners

Existing

On order

45

37

31

28

22

22

20

20

17

14

13

13

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

9

8

12

12

4

9

4

6

6

TI POOL

NITC

BAHRI

AMCL / MING WAH

NAVIG8

NGT (JX)

FRONTLINE

SHELL

COSCO

SK ENERGY

CHINA SHPG

OTC

KPC

IDEMITSU

PHOENIX

DYNACOM

MARAN

KOCH

CHEVRON

DHT

EXXON

VLCC Fleet Top Controllers

Existing

On order

‘Verified’ orders only

39

52 52

34

8

6

30

18

2 1 2

1

6

7

1

15

17

92

1

4

1

1

9

5

4

13

22

4

4

23

9

8

22

9

10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

# of ships

Year of Delivery

2015 (40)

2014 (36)

2013 (43)

2012 (14)

2011 (7)

2010 (44)

2009 (14)

2008 (59)

Pre 2008

Year order placed

VLCC NB ORDERS



14

12

9

8

7

6

4

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

6

NAVIG8

AMCL / MING WAH

COSCO

METROSTAR

GENMAR

DHT

SINOKOR

MARAN

CHINA SHPG

UNKNOWN

SCORPIO

AWILCO

AGELEF

WILHELMSEN

OCEANBULK

EAST MED

GLOBAL ENERGY

FRONTLINE

MEIJI SHPG

CURZON

OTHERS (4)

VLCC Orderbook by Owner


3927

36 34 28 3118

2839

52 59 6548

30 2412

1454

35

9

‐25‐37 ‐36 ‐34

‐9 ‐11 ‐11‐22

‐35 ‐32‐40

‐19 ‐17 ‐18‐7 ‐5 ‐8 ‐11

‐2 ‐6

2

3

428418 418 418

437457 464 470 474

494

513

559

590 602619

641

684710 711

‐60

‐40

‐20

20

40

60

80

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

VLCC Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered

Removed

FutureRemoval Net NB Slippage

Scheduled Deliveries

Fleet Size* (end year)

Projection assumes no future ordersCurrent avg. age of trading fleet = 9 yrs old

UndeclaredOptions

* projected fleet growth excludes unverified orders and options

2 4

146

11

21

39

27

36 3428 31

18

28

39

5259

65

48

3024

126 1 1 1

71

2

2

2

1

4

23

1 1

14

54

35

9

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Earlier

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

VLCC Fleet By Year Built NB (112)

Inactive (35)

D/H (628)

FSO72%

Laid Up17%

Overage0%Restricted

11%

Breakdown of inactive fleet



Suezmax Fleet Growth & Age Profile

23

22

22

21

16

14

14

13

12

12

11

9

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

4

8

2

2

2

2

4

DYNACOM

TEEKAY

NAT

EURONAV

SOVCOMFLOT

FRONTLINE

DELTA

CARDIFF

TSAKOS

APOLLO

GENMAR

SONANGOL

ALMI TANKERS

NITC

DIAMOND S

KOENIG&CIE.

RIDGEBURY

GEDEN

CENTROFIN

MARAN

Suezmax Fleet Top Owners

Existing

On order

14

45

35

11

4 3 2 2

1

7

63

1

17

8

7

1

8

27

4

3 4

2

2

3

2

20

17

9

17

40

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

# of ships

Year of Delivery

2015 (30)

2014 (37)

2013 (2)

2012 (5)

2011 (0)

2010 (48)

2009 (34)

2008 (17)

Pre 2008

Year order placed

SUEZMAX NB ORDERS

87

65

44444

3222222222

11

FRONTLINE

KYKLADES

ARCADIA

TULSHYAN GROUP

POLEMBROS

DYNACOM

CM LEMOS

BP

MARAN

EASTPAC

DIAMOND S

FEARNLEY FINANS

CARDIFF

PETROBRAS

ALPHA TANKERS

AMPTC

GS LIVANOS

SONANGOL

DELTA

CARGILL INC

THENAMARIS

Suezmax Orderbook by Owner

24

22

22

22

19

17

15

13

13

12

12

11

10

9

9

8

8

6

6

6

4

2

2

8

1

4

1

GEMINI TANKERS

STENA BULK

ORION POOL

DYNACOM

HEIDMAR

EURONAV

SHELL

CARDIFF

DELTA

FRONTLINE

SOVCOMFLOT

PETROBRAS

UNIQUE SHPG HK

NAVIG8

NITC

BP

CENTROFIN

AVIN / VARNIMAR

THENAMARIS

CSSSA

Suezmax Fleet Top Controllers

Existing

On order





2 2 25 4 5

8

17

9

1713

2320

23 21 23 23

14

45

37

43 45

17

8 715 12 2

2

1

34 34

4

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Earlier

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Suezmax Fleet By Year Built

NB (73)

Inactive (12)

Non D/H (1)

D/H (433)

FSO92%

Laid Up0%

Overage0%

Restricted8%


17 1323 20 23 21 23 23

14

4537

43 45

178 7

1

34 34

4

‐16‐25

‐12 ‐12 ‐10‐5 ‐7

‐21 ‐17‐6

‐12‐6

‐15

‐3‐10

‐2 ‐5 ‐6 ‐9‐ ‐4‐2

2

4

233 221 232240

253269

285 287 284

323

348

385

415429

427 433

458

483 481

‐35

‐25

‐15

‐5

5

15

25

35

45

55

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

Suezmax Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered

RemovedFutureRemoval Net NB Slippage




UndeclaredOptions




Aframax + LR2 Fleet Growth & Age Profile

1 13 2 4 2 1

6 6 6 7 6 8

23 25

149

18

614

18

2 1 3 5 84

815

15

27

43

19

10

28

72

4550

4447

44

70

54

4521

8

231

1

1

1

7 2 2 3 21

2

2

2 1

1

2

1

1

3

11

1

2

1655 56

11

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

Earlier

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Aframax/LR2 Trading Clean or Dirty Fleet By Year Built

Clean (180)

Dirty (693)

Both (4)

Inactive (37)

NB (138)

FSO60%

Laid Up8%

Overage5%

Restricted27%


2111

34

7851

5750

5567

96 6854

39

14 16 22

16 55 56

11

‐18 ‐22 ‐17 ‐31‐27

‐15 ‐16 ‐25‐35

‐18‐32 ‐23 ‐26 ‐21 ‐21 ‐3 ‐11 ‐13 ‐20‐2

‐6‐3

3

4

502 491 508

555

579

621655

685717

795831

862 875 868

863891

928968 962

‐60

‐40

‐20

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

Aframax/LR2 Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered




Projection assumes no future ordersCurrent avg. age of trading fleet = 11/8 yrs old




Aframax Fleet Growth & Age Profile

41

36

28

24

22

22

21

20

19

15

14

13

12

11

11

9

9

7

7

7

6

5

4

5

2

2

MISC

TEEKAY

HEIDMAR

SOVCOMFLOT

MINERVA

NAVIG8

SHELL

THENAMARIS

BP

CARDIFF

ZODIAC

STATOIL

PDV

P66

EASTPAC

JELLICOE TANKERS

LUNDQVIST

VITOL

OLYMPIC

SOLAL

Aframax Fleet Top Controllers

Existing

On order

43

30

22

20

20

16

14

13

11

11

10

9

9

9

8

8

8

8

7

7

6

4

5

2

9

2

SOVCOMFLOT

AET / MISC

TEEKAY

THENAMARIS

MINERVA

CARDIFF

ZODIAC

BP

EASTPAC

GNMTC

SCI

BAKRI

TSAKOS

LUNDQVIST

SINOKOR

GEDEN

ARCADIA

PDV

VALLES

OSG

Aframax Fleet Top Owners

Existing

On order


36

54

33

22

3 1 1

3

15

6

3

1

1

3

11

11

12 311

8

5

5

2

419

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

# of ships

Year of Delivery

2015 (30)

2014 (7)

2013 (15)

2012 (6)

2011 (1)

2010 (15)

2009 (2)

2008 (27)

Pre 2008

Year order placed

AFRAMAX NB ORDERS



9

6

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

TSAKOS

THENAMARIS

UNKNOWN

BP

CARDIFF

CERES SHIPPING LTD

WAH KWONG

TCC

TRANSPETROL

LUNDQVIST

EASTPAC

DONG‐A TANKER

DIAMOND TANKERS

PETROBRAS

PETROVIETNAM

JX SHPG

SAMOS

Aframax Orderbook by Owner



15 927

6742

47

35 42 3654

36 41

216 2 3

20 267

‐17 ‐21 ‐16‐30 ‐26

‐15 ‐16‐25

‐33‐16

‐27 ‐21 ‐22 ‐19 ‐19 ‐3 ‐9 ‐10 ‐15‐2

1

4

435 423 434

471487

519

538555 558

596605 625

624611

594 590599

613 606

‐40

‐20

20

40

60

80

100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

Aframax Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered

Removed

FutureRemoval

Net NB Slippage


Fleet Size* (end year)Projection assumes no future orders

Current avg. age of trading fleet = 11 yrs old


15 8 4 8 11 12

23

34

159

27

67

4247

3542

36

54

3641

21

62 12 1

72

2 3 2 12

22

1

1

1

1

1

1

13

2026

7

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Earlier

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Aframax Fleet By Year Built

NB (56)

Inactive (30)

Non D/H (3)

D/H (587)

FSO67%

Laid Up6%

Overage7%

Restricted20%




LR2 Fleet Growth & Age Profile

22

12

12

12

8

7

7

6

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

8

1

SKS

OTC

AP MOLLER

SCORPIO

SOVCOMFLOT

CARDIFF

CHANDRIS

KOTC

TEEKAY

MINERVA

TORM

LATSCO

MOSK

ORION SHPG

AMPTC

BOTTIGLIERI

CHINA SHPG

ACTIVE SHIPPING & MGMT…

ELETSON

SAMOS

LR2 Fleet Top Owners

Existing

On order

22

20

18

17

13

12

10

10

8

7

7

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

8

18

SKS

SCORPIO

LR2 POOL

TEEKAY

ST SHPG

OTC

HEIDMAR

SHELL

VITOL

CARDIFF

NAVIG8

KPC

PETROBRAS

MINERVA

ELETSON

NYK

SAMOS

CSSSA

MISC

T&T

LR2 Fleet Top Controllers

Existing

On order

18

11

8

6

5

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

NAVIG8

FRONTLINE

SCORPIO

SINOKOR

BP

EAST MED

LYRAS

DONG‐A TANKER

KYKLADES

VALLES

REEDEREI NORD

PRIME

LYKIARDOPULO

CHANDRIS

LR2 Orderbook by Owner






31

42

31

12

3 1

1

5

1

1

1

10

411

33 4

1

10

31

13

4

12

5

6

20

40

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

# of ships

Year of Delivery

2015 (30)

2014 (17)

2013 (58)

2012 (12)

2011 (1)

2010 (14)

2009 (2)

2008 (7)

Pre 2008

Year order placed

LR2 NB ORDERS

62

711 9

10 1513

3142 32

1318

814

21

13

3530

4‐1‐1

‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐2 ‐2‐5 ‐2 ‐4 ‐2 ‐2 ‐2

‐3 ‐5‐2‐4

2

67 68 74 84 92 102117 130

159

199

226 237251 257

269

300

329

355 356

‐10

10

20

30

40

50

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

LR2 Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered






1 1 3 2 4 2 16 6 6 7 6 8

23 25

149

18

6

1418

1 14

3 4

9

41

15 3 3

9 5

8

16

18

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

2

31

13

35

30

4

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Earlier

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

LR2 Fleet By Year Built NB (82)

Inactive (7)

Both (4)

Dirty (103)

Clean (180)

FSO29%

Laid Up14%

Overage0%

Restricted57%




Panamax / LR1 Fleet Growth & Age Profile

155 9

22

3743

3943 41

3629 26

14 114 5

2617

5‐9 ‐12

‐24 ‐42‐22 ‐22 ‐21

‐32‐22

‐14

‐34

‐13 ‐17 ‐15 ‐11 ‐7‐2

‐4 ‐4 ‐6‐3

1

346339

324

304

319

340

358

369

388

410405

418 415411

404 402

421

434 434

‐45

‐25

‐5

15

35

55

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

Panamax/LR1 Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered

Removed

FutureRemoval

Net NB Slippage





2 1 1 24

1816

12

23

30 31

20 20

11 11

2 12 2 13

1 1 1 1

7

13

59

18

19 24

27

199

5

96

3

21

6

1 1 1 11

11

1 1

2 4

1

1

5

26

17

5

31

2

10

20

30

40

50

Earlier

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Panamax/LR1 Trading Clean or Dirty Fleet By Year Built

Both (6)

NB (53)

Inactive (23)

Dirty (188)

Clean (205)FSO57%

Overage0%

Restricted43%




Panamax Fleet Growth & Age Profile

9

8

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

3

OSG

PLEIADES

DYNACOM

COSCO

ELETSON

PETROBRAS

HANSA HAMBURG

ULTRAGAS

FLOPEC

CHINA SHPG

SONAP

GS LIVANOS

DS TANKERS

CHARTWORLD

SINOPEC

SALAMON

ALTOMARE

TEEKAY

LEO SHIPPING PVT LTD

PREMUDA

Panamax Fleet Top Owners

Existing

On order

15

8

6

6

5

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

3

PANAMAX INT

PLEIADES

HEIDMAR

PETROBRAS

ELETSON

COSCO

PDV

JACOB GERMANY

PENFIELD

CHINA SHPG

ASAHI

SCORPIO

SONAP

PREMUDA

EMIRATES

EUROTANKERS

SINOPEC

TRAFIGURA

ST SHPG

CURZON

Panamax Fleet Top Controllers

Existing

On order

‘Verified’ orders only ‘Verified’ orders only

81

97 6 13 12

1 21

‐6 ‐9‐15

‐31‐15

‐22 ‐21‐29

‐16‐10

‐27

‐8 ‐6‐10

‐6 ‐6‐1

‐2 ‐2 ‐3

253 245239

215206 197

188

160144

134

107

99 93 8377 70 70 69 66

‐35

‐25

‐15

‐5

5

15

25

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

Panamax Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered

Removed

FutureRemoval





2 21 1 1 1 1 1

4

8

1

97

6

1312

12

13 1 1 1

2 4

21

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Panamax Fleet By Year Built

NB (3)

Inactive (15)

Exisiting (71)FSO47%

Restricted53%




LR1 Fleet Growth & Age Profile

22

17

13

11

10

10

10

10

9

8

8

8

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

5

6

2

PRIME

BW SHPG

MOSK

CHINA SHPG

TSAKOS

STENA BULK

DYNACOM

NAVIOS

ELETSON

RESTIS

GEM

KOENIG&CIE.

MARINVEST

TORM

FORMOSA

ST SHIPPING

SCI

EXPEDO

OCEAN BULK

ROXANA SHPG

LR1 Fleet Top Owners

Existing

On order

31

20

17

16

15

13

13

13

11

10

9

9

8

7

7

7

6

6

6

5

13

6

3

STRAITS TANKERS

PRIME

PENFIELD

PANAMAX INT

NAVIG8

BW SHPG

SCORPIO

SHELL

HEIDMAR

ST SHPG

ELETSON

KOCH

VITOL

JACOB GERMANY

UPT POOL

TORM

CHINA SHPG

RESTIS

DYNACOM

OTC

LR1 Fleet Top Controllers

Existing

On order




13

6

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

NAVIG8

BW SHPG

SCORPIO

SAMOS

TSAKOS

NISSHIN

PLEIADES

ODFJELL

PETROBRAS

VALLES

GLOBAL ENERGY

LR1 Orderbook by Owner



41

35

26

94

1 1 2 1

1

1

8

5

2

8

2

1

3

10

134

18

4

5

12

50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

# of ships

Year of Delivery

2015 (22)

2014 (26)

2013 (0)

2012 (3)

2011 (0)

2010 (15)

2009 (12)

2008 (15)

Pre 2008

Year order placed

LR1 NB ORDERS

7 4

15

31 30 27

42

41 36 29 26

14 114

5

2416

5‐3 ‐3

‐9 ‐11 ‐7‐3 ‐6 ‐4

‐7 ‐5‐11

‐5 ‐5 ‐1 ‐2 ‐2‐3

‐3

1

93 94

85 89113

143170

209

244

276298

319 322 328 327 332351

365 368

‐15

‐5

5

15

25

35

45

55

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

LR1 Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered






2 1 1 2 4

18 1612

23

30 31

20 20

11 11

2 12 3

54

11

13

1115

189 5

96

3

21

3

12

11

1 1 1 1

1

1

5

24

16

55

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Earlier

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

LR1 Fleet By Year Built NB (50)

Inactive (8)

Both (6)

Dirty (117)

Clean (205)FSO75%

Overage0%

Restricted25%




MR2 / Handy Fleet Growth & Age Profile

40 40 58103

128 123125 145

174

175 12288

5679 96

74

60

107

27 10

‐54‐31

‐56 ‐58‐46 ‐37 ‐49 ‐67 ‐53 ‐48

‐112

‐31 ‐33 ‐16 ‐13 ‐10 ‐26 ‐30 ‐40‐7

‐10

43

944 953 955 10001082

11681244

1322

1443

1570158016371660

17231806

1918

198919901963

‐110

‐60

‐10

40

90

140

190

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

MR/Handy Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered

Removed

FutureRemoval

Net NB Slippage





1 1 1 6 5 6 816 15 9 11

19

3826

4048

40 40

58

103

110119125

145

174175

122

88

56

7996

74

60

107

27 102 1 1

62 3 4

11 5

7 4 1 4 5 22

32

1

2

1

2

4

4

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Earlier

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

MR/Handy Trading Clean or Dirty Fleet

By Year Built Existing

NB (204)

Inactive (70)FSO8%

Laid Up8%

Overage23%

Restricted61%




MR2 Fleet Growth & Age Profile

38

33

33

31

29

22

21

20

19

19

18

17

16

16

16

15

14

14

14

13

10

6

4

13

SCORPIO

NANJING

DIAMOND S

SOVCOMFLOT

MOSK

TORM

CHINA SHPG

OAKTREE

BAHRI

DAMICO/COGEMA

NAVIOS

SINOKOR

OTC

UACC

NYK

OSG

LALIOTIS

MINERVA

HAJI‐IOANNOU P

IMC

MR2 Fleet Top Owners

Existing

On order

60

56

43

41

41

35

32

29

27

26

24

24

24

24

24

23

21

18

17

17

5

9

6

33

1

3

8

4

3

9

8

8

VITOL

ST SHPG

SCORPIO

TORM

SHELL

NORIENT POOL

NANJING

CPTA

PETROBRAS

TRAFIGURA

DAMICO/COGEMA

STENA WECO

KOCH

BP

HANDYTANKERS POOL

NAVIG8

SOVCOMFLOT

HAFNIA

MORGAN STANLEY

CHINA SHPG

MR2 Fleet Top Controllers

Existing

On order

13

10

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

6

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

50

SINOKOR

SCORPIO

BW SHPG

OMAN SHIP

AP MOLLER

BP

TRAFIGURA

STENA BULK

CURZON

CERES

TRISTAR

HAFNIA

OAKTREE

LATSCO

PARAKOU

ELKA

UNISEA

VITOL

DAMICO/COGEMA

INTERUNITY MGNT

OTHERS (29)

MR2 Orderbook by Owner






123 128

89

53

17 162 1 2 1

1

4

7

12

1

2 1

1

4

1

1

8

11

1

834

9 1

11

48

27

6

1789

61

4

15

1

13

70

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

# of ships

Year of Delivery

2015 (20)

2014 (19)

2013 (171)

2012 (92)

2011 (52)

2010 (21)

2009 (6)

2008 (28)

Pre 2008

Year order placed

MR NB ORDERS

22 1126 50

76 72 68

92

123

129 9465

4574 76 68

52

86

21 8‐3‐2

‐1 ‐5 ‐2 ‐6 ‐10 ‐11 ‐13‐39

‐8‐14 ‐8 ‐6 ‐15 ‐17 ‐23‐6

‐8

33

295 304 329374

450

520582

664

776

892 94710041035

11011172

1279

134213491337

‐70

‐20

30

80

130

180

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

MR Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered






1 1 1 2 110 11 6 4

11

2716

24 2922

1126

50

76 72 68

92

123129

94

65

45

74 7668

22

52

86

2183 1

4 1

22

1 1

1

2

1

1

1

2

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Earlier

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

MR Fleet By Year Built

Inactive (23)

NB (167)

Non D/H (4)

D/H (1235)

FSO17%

Laid Up9%

Overage13%

Restricted61%




Handy Fleet Growth & Age Profile

35

19

15

14

13

13

13

13

12

12

11

11

11

9

8

8

8

8

7

7

AP MOLLER

INTERORIENT

MONTANARI

KOENIG&CIE.

AET / MISC

SCORPIO

SEAARLAND

NORDEN

MOSK

ODFJELL

DUBHE

TORM

GERMAN TANKERS

STOLT

TSAKOS

SOCATRA

CHEMIKALIEN

OFFEN

CURZON

MILENIA ITALY

Handy Fleet Top Owners

Existing

On order

66

38

31

22

22

15

14

13

12

11

11

11

10

8

8

8

8

7

7

7

7

4

2

HANDYTANKERS POOL

SCORPIO

NORIENT POOL

UPT POOL

ODFJELL

GERMAN TANKERS

NAVIG8

SHELL

ST SHPG

MONTANARI

AET / MISC

TORM

BP

TOKYO MARINE

VITOL

HAFNIA

TSAKOS

CHEMBULK

LITASCO

CSSSA

Handy Fleet Top Controllers

Existing

On Order

6

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

ALTERNA CAPITAL

BP

PETROBRAS

DAMICO/COGEMA

HAFNIA

PERTAMINA

MINERVA

UNKNOWN

TOP TANKERS

CPC

WISBY TANKERS

SARGEANT MARINE INC

CHINESE

TOMASOS

Handy Orderbook by Owner






5145

27

51

1

1

7

1 41

4

2

7

4

2

2

21

16

10

98

52

312

1

1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

# of ships

Year of Delivery

2015 (1)

2014 (16)

2013 (34)

2012 (7)

2011 (5)

2010 (13)

2009 (6)

2008 (15)

Pre 2008

Year order placed

HANDY NB ORDERS

1829 32

5352 51 57

53 51

46 28 2311 5

2068 21

6 2

‐51

‐29

‐55

‐53‐46

‐35

‐43 ‐57‐42

‐35

‐73

‐23 ‐19‐8 ‐8 ‐4 ‐11 ‐13 ‐18

649

649

626 626632 648

662 658667

678

633

633625 622 634

640648

642

627

‐80

‐60

‐40

‐20

20

40

60

80

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Uncertain

Handy Fleet Growth (# of ships)

Delivered

Removed

FutureRemoval Net NB Slippage


Fleet Size* (end year)Projection assumes no future ordersCurrent avg. age of trading fleet = 11 yrs old


1 14 4

3 2 3 4 37 8

11 1016

19 18

2932

53 52 5157

53 5146

2823

115

20

61 1 3 1

2 1

62 1 3 1

1 5 3 31 2 3

1 1

2

2

1

1

3

28 21

62

10

20

30

40

50

60

Earlier

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Handy Fleet By Year Built

NB (37)

Inactive (47)

Non D/H (6)

D/H (631)

FSO4%

Laid Up8%

Overage28%Restricted

60%




Fleet Age Profile

VLCC

Age (years) Million DWT % of Fleet Inactive

0 ‐ 4 179 56.1 29% 0

5 ‐ 9 196 60.6 31% 1

10 ‐ 14 156 47.8 25% 6

15 ‐ 19 91 27.3 14% 9

20 ‐ 24 6 1.8 1% 11

25+ years 0 0.0 0% 8

Existing Fleet 628 193.5 35

On Order 113 34.7 18%

# of Active

Ships

Suezmax


0 ‐ 4 120 19.0 28% 0

5 ‐ 9 142 22.5 33% 0

10 ‐ 14 100 15.9 23% 0

15 ‐ 19 56 8.6 13% 2

20 ‐ 24 16 2.4 4% 4

25+ years 0 0.0 0% 6


On Order 73 11.5 17%

# of Active

Ships

Aframax


0 ‐ 4 71 7.8 12% 1

5 ‐ 9 203 22.4 34% 2

10 ‐ 14 192 20.7 33% 2

15 ‐ 19 95 10.0 16% 4

20 ‐ 24 27 2.7 5% 4

25+ years 2 0.2 0% 17


On Order 56 6.3 9%

# of Active

Ships

Panamax


0 ‐ 4 0 0.0 0% 0

5 ‐ 9 13 0.9 18% 4

10 ‐ 14 36 2.5 51% 2

15 ‐ 19 14 1.0 20% 1

20 ‐ 24 4 0.2 6% 2

25+ years 4 0.3 6% 6


On Order 3 0.2 4%

# of Active

Ships

LR2


0 ‐ 4 74 8.3 26% 1

5 ‐ 9 133 14.7 46% 0

10 ‐ 14 39 4.2 14% 3

15 ‐ 19 38 4.0 13% 3

20 ‐ 24 1 0.1 0% 0

25+ years 2 0.2 1% 0


On Order 82 9.3 29%

# of Active

Ships

Trading clean Trading dirty

Age (years) Million DWT Age (years) Million DWT

0 ‐ 4 65 7.3 0 ‐ 4 8 0.9

5 ‐ 9 76 8.4 5 ‐ 9 56 6.1

10 ‐ 14 26 2.8 10 ‐ 14 13 1.4

15 ‐ 19 12 1.3 15 ‐ 19 24 2.5

20 ‐ 24 0 0.0 20 ‐ 24 1 0.1

25+ years 1 0.1 25+ years 1 0.1

Existing fleet 180 12.6 Existing fleet 103 10.3

# of Active

Ships

# of Active

Ships

LR1


0 ‐ 4 57 4.3 17% 1

5 ‐ 9 175 12.9 53% 1

10 ‐ 14 80 5.8 24% 0

15 ‐ 19 12 0.9 4% 0

20 ‐ 24 2 0.1 1% 1

25+ years 2 0.2 1% 5


On Order 50 3.7 15%

# of Active

Ships

Trading clean Trading dirty

Age (years) Million DWT Age (years) Million DWT

0 ‐ 4 45 3.4 0 ‐ 4 12 0.9

5 ‐ 9 116 8.6 5 ‐ 9 56 4.1

10 ‐ 14 38 2.8 10 ‐ 14 39 2.8

15 ‐ 19 4 0.3 15 ‐ 19 8 0.6

20 ‐ 24 0 0.0 20 ‐ 24 2 0.1

25+ years 2 0.2 25+ years 0 0.0

Existing fleet 205 15.2 Existing fleet 117 8.5

# of Active

Ships

# of Active

Ships

MR2


0 ‐ 4 328 16.2 26% 3

5 ‐ 9 506 24.6 41% 1

10 ‐ 14 235 11.0 19% 3

15 ‐ 19 118 5.4 10% 1

20 ‐ 24 44 2.0 4% 6

25+ years 8 0.4 1% 9


On Order 167 8.3 13%

# of Active

Ships

Handy


0 ‐ 4 65 2.3 10% 5

5 ‐ 9 235 8.7 37% 1

10 ‐ 14 217 7.9 34% 1

15 ‐ 19 74 2.6 12% 4

20 ‐ 24 26 0.9 4% 8

25+ years 20 0.7 3% 28


On Order 37 1.3 6%

# of Active

Ships



Market Today: Key Facts and figures



Price ($m) 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2

Korea NB 90 93 99 104 101 101 99 95

China NB 83 86 96 100 98 95 94 92

5 yr old 52 52 60 79 74 74 78 81

10 yr old 34 41 45 48 48 46 50 54

Scrap 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 11

Activity (# of ships)

NB Ordered¹ 8 24 22 2 8 4 14 17

Vessels Scrapped 10 7 4 5 3 2 1 0

Second Hand Sales 20 16 24 19 10 4 6 18

¹excluding unverified and options

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

VLCC Asset Value

Korea NB

China NB

5 yrs old

10 yrs old

Scrap

$m

Sale & Purchase Activity

0

35

70

105

140

175

210

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

VLCC ‐ 5 Yrs old ($m)

FORWARD EARNINGS ‐ TC (VLCC 3 yr TC)

HISTORICAL SPOT EARNINGS (Average Past 3 Yrs TD3)

FORWARD EARNINGS ‐ FFA (Avg. Front 4 Qs TD3)

TCE($k/day)

Asset Value($/m)

Asset Value Vs. Cash Flow: VLCC ($/day)

VLCC

Suezmax

The VLCC S&P market has been very ac ve this quarter, with a number of big transac ons; but one story dominated the sales news: the Euronav acquisi on of Metrostar’s 4 x resale VLCCs plus op ons. Euronav paid $98Mn for each of the 4 units under construc on: due to be delivered within 2016. The price paid for each of the units is higher that a newbuilding order would cost today ($95Mn) but buyers see that value in prompt delivery. Other significant transac ons included Ridgebury Tankers acquisi on of 4 x 99‐00 built VLCCs at $135Mn en bloc (subject IPO). There were two other en bloc transac ons making a total of 18 second‐hand sales, the most transac ons we have seen in a single quarter so far this year. The flurry of ac vity was not just concentrated on second‐hand transac ons – 17 new orders were placed with the yards, the highest number of orders

placed in a quarter since Q1 2014.

There has been very li le Suezmax sales ac vity this quarter with just two second‐hand sales reported, no demoli on sales and a slowdown in newbuilding orders. The year‐to‐date average for newbuilding orders placed per quarter was 12.6; this quarter fell behind the average with just 8 orders placed. While there were only two second‐hand sales reported, this repre‐sented the same number of transac ons as last year (2x en bloc sales). This quarter we saw Delta Tankers purchase the 2009 Hyundai Samho built Ex Ariadni from Liquimar Tankers for $55.5Mn and South Korean buyers Syncro Shipping (ship managers for Oriental Shipping & Investment) taking the Ex Zallaq (153K dwt 2001 blt Hyundai) for $23.5Mn. Again, a lack of scrapping has con nued to be a theme. In the year‐to‐date there have only been three units commi ed to the beaches, with no units sent in last two quarters.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Suezmax Asset Value

Korea NB

China NB

5 yrs old

10 yrs old

Scrap

$m

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Suezmax ‐ 5 Yrs old ($m)

FORWARD EARNINGS ‐ TC (Suezmax 3 yr TC)



TCE($k/day)

Asset Value($/m)

Asset Value Vs. Cash Flow: Suezmax ($/day)

Price ($m) 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2

Korea NB 59 60 63 67 67 68 67 65

China NB 54 55 58 60 60 60 60 59

5 yr old 39 40 46 50 50 53 57 58

10 yr old 24 25 28 33 33 35 41 41

Scrap 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7


NB Ordered¹ 0 0 7 11 14 7 18 8






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Aframax Asset Value

Korea NB

China NB

5 yrs old

10 yrs old

Scrap

$m

Price ($m) 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2

Korea NB 47 48 50 53 54 55 55 53

China NB 45 44 47 50 50 50 50 49

5 yr old 28 29 31 39 38 38 43 45

10 yr old 18 20 21 25 25 26 30 32

Scrap 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5


NB Ordered¹ 15 18 3 3 7 17 25 25





0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Aframax ‐ 5 Yrs old ($m)

FORWARD EARNINGS ‐ TC (Aframax 3 yr TC)



TCE($k/day)

Asset Value($/m)

Asset Value Vs. Cash Flow: Aframax ($/day)

Aframax / LR2

Panamax / LR1

For newbuildings, we can see a reduc on in the pricing for Aframax and LR2 in both Korean and Chinese yards. This could be a combina on of currency, available capacity and weak demand for dry cargo newbuildings and thus having to price newbuilding slots accordingly. Also, the recent falling commodity prices that have resulted in cheaper finished products may also have an influence. The actual pace of ordering is unchanged with 25 NB orders placed. From a second‐hand perspec ve, unsurprisingly we have seen an increase in pricing which tallies with the con nued buoyancy seen in the chartering markets in both the clean and crude sectors. The number of sales has doubled quarter‐on‐quarter. The rate of demoli on ac vity is also unchanged with only one vessel being scrapped. With the rates where they are, it s ll makes commercial sense to carry on running some of the older vessels.

Newbuilding ac vity for Panamax/LR1 tankers follows a similar pa ern to that in the Aframax/LR2 sector, in the sense that there has been a slight fall in price and rela vely no change in the pace of ordering ac vity.

A slightly different pa ern emerges when we look at second‐hand ac vity as demonstrated by the tables above. We have seen a fall in the number of second‐hand sales, with only three reported. Second‐hand pricing however, like the above men oned sector, has seen some increase in both the 5 and 10 year old age brackets. Once again, this is likely to be explained by the maintained rela ve strength in the chartering market for these types of vessels.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

LR1 ‐ 5 Yrs old ($m)

FORWARD EARNINGS ‐ TC (LR1 3 yr TC)

HISTORICAL SPOT EARNINGS (Average Past 3 Yrs TC5)

FORWARD EARNINGS ‐ FFA (Avg. Front 4 Qs TC5)

TCE($k/day)

Asset Value($/m)

Asset Value Vs. Cash Flow: LR1 ($/day)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

LR1 Asset Value

Korea NB

China NB

5 yrs old

10 yrs old

Scrap

$m

Price ($m) 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2

Korea NB 39 40 43 48 48 47 46 45

China NB 35 35 37 42 42 43 43 41

5 yr old 29 30 31 34 32 32 33 35

10 yr old 18 21 22 25 23 22 23 24

Scrap 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4


NB Ordered¹ 0 0 12 2 7 8 11 10







Handy

As a period of rela ve buoyancy, Q2 2015 has con nued where Q1 le off, defined by good daily charter rates and high asset values. Average daily rates went from around $25,000/day in Q1 to $28,900/day in Q2, and these good rates are par cularly striking when compared with Q2 2014 where they were around $9,000/day.

As would be expected in such a market, generally prices remained consistent with the preceding quarter. The rate of scrapping decreased slightly from the previous quarter with 17 removals from the fleet, compared with nineteen in Q1.

The Handy market in Q2 2015 wasn’t blessed with quite the same level of upward movement as the larger‐sized units. In fact, the amount of

second‐hand sales dipped from nine in the previous quarter to five in Q2. However, the good rates that have been the hallmark of the recov‐

ering tanker market have remained throughout this period for Handy tankers. This period of improvement in rates was also largely reflected

in the prices a ained in the limited sales that did take place. Of par cular note is the prices a ained for the German‐owned MT CAPE BILLE

(blt 2003) and MT CAPE BRUNY (blt 2004) which sold for $14.5Mn and $15Mn respec vely. When these vessels entered the market in April,

the owners set the prices above as a reserve with many commen ng the reserve was too ambi ous. In the rosy market, this clearly was not

the case. The amount of vessels scrapped halved compared to the previous quarter. This could be explained by owners holding onto ships

during a period of good rates, however it is likely to also be a consequence of the scrap market sliding down throughout the period.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

MR2 ‐ 5 Yrs old ($m)

FORWARD EARNINGS ‐ TC (MR2 3 yr TC)



TCE($k/day)

Asset Value($/m)

Asset Value Vs. Cash Flow: MR2 ($/day)

MR2 Price ($m) 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2

Korea NB 35 37 40 39 37 36 36 35

China NB 32 33 33 33 33 34 34 33

5 yr old 25 31 32 31 27 26 24 24

10 yr old 16 17 18 20 17 16 17 17

Scrap 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3


NB Ordered¹ 45 47 11 5 1 2 1 0




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Handy Asset Value

Korea NB

China NB

5 yrs old

10 yrs old

Scrap

$m

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Handy ‐ 5 Yrs old ($m)

FORWARD EARNINGS ‐ TC (Handy 3 yr TC)



TCE($k/day)

Asset Value($/m)

Asset Value Vs. Cash Flow: Handy ($/day)

Price ($m) 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2

Korea NB 31 33 34 34 33 33 33 33

China NB ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

5 yr old 22 24 23 23 22 22 22 22

10 yr old 14 17 18 18 17 17 17 17

Scrap 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3


NB Ordered¹ 3 21 5 9 2 0 1 0






Tanker Breakeven Rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

NBEco

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

VLCC breakeven rates vs. TC market

Vessel Age (Years)

Earnings ('000 per day)

5 Yr TC

3 Yr TC

1 Yr TC

Difference in breakeven rates attributed to savings from an eco vessel versus a modern vessel = $3,789 / avg bunker price = $305/mt

*breakeven rates assume 60% debt financing and 10% return on equity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

NBEco

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Suezmax breakeven rates vs. TC market

Vessel Age (Years)


5 Yr TC

3 Yr TC

1 Yr TC



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

NBEco

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Aframax breakeven rates vs. TC market

Vessel Age (Years)


5 Yr TC3 Yr TC

1 Yr TC



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

NBEco

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

LR1 breakeven rates vs. TC market

Vessel Age (Years)


5 Yr TC

3 Yr TC

1 Yr TC



0

5

10

15

20

25

NBEco

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

MR2 breakeven rates vs. TC market

Vessel Age (Years)


5 Yr TC

3 Yr TC

1 Yr TC



Based on Braemar ACM’s assessment on asset prices / me

charter markets and bunker prices (24 July 2015)






Aug 2015



Clean Tanker Demand

Overview of CPP trades 4

Evolution of CPP Trades 5

CPP Demand Outlook by country 6

Evolution of CPP Trades: East and West 7

Outlook for Seaborne CPP Trade Vs. Average Voyage Length 8

Clean Tanker Supply vs. Demand Outlook: Monthly 9

Outlook for CPP imports by Country / Grade 10

Outlook for CPP Import Requirement vs. Export Surplus by Region 17

CPP Trade Outlook by Country: Imports vs. Exports 18



LR2 & LR1 30

MR2 & Handy 31

Drivers by Segment: Evolution & Outlook 32

CPP Exports by Destination & Imports by Origin

USA 37

Europe 39

Japan 42

Korea 44

Australia / Singapore 46

Hong Kong 49

China 50

Mexico / Taiwan 52

Malaysia 53

Indonesia 54

Veg Oil Exports by Destination 55

Contents Page




Clean Tanker Demand



Global CPP Trades

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

LR2 Monthly liftingsKorea India

NW EUR BALT FSU

SE ASIA Middle East

MED Other

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

LR1 Monthly liftingsMiddle East NW EUR

RSEA Korea

BALT FSU Other

India

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

MR Monthly liftingsMED NW EUR

EC North America Other

China SE ASIA

USG Middle East

0

50

100

150

200

250

Handy Monthly liftingsMED NW EUR

BALT FSU SE ASIA

B SEA China

EC North America Other



Clean tanker Demand Outlook

Our demand model represents between 80%

and 95% (depending on the grade of fuel) of

total intra‐regional seaborne oil flows by vol‐

ume. We do not, however, a empt to model

demand that is generated by trade flows within

the borders of a single country, or demand

generated by addi onal days on demurrage

(including un‐reported storage employment) or

for the purpose of lighterage. This model as‐

sumes, therefore, that these ‘un‐modelled’

elements of tanker demand remain constant,

and treats ‘modelled’ demand as 100% of all

demand by applying a mul ple. This mul ple

will change as the share of demand captured by

our model grows. It also assumes that demand

cannot exceed the supply of tankers available to

move it at ‘observed’ steaming speeds.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Apr‐14

Jul‐14

Oct‐14

Jan‐15

Apr‐15

Jul‐15

Oct‐15

Jan‐16

Australasia

Canada

China

E&S Africa

Europe

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Mexico

Middle East

North Africa

Other Africa

Other Asia Pacific

Singapore

S&C America

United States

West Africa

Monthly Clean Seaborne Imports by Region/Country

mt / month Forecast

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Australasia

Canada

China

E&S Africa

Europe

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Mexico

Middle East

North Africa

Other Africa

Other Asia Pacific

Singapore

S&C America

United States

West Africa

Clean Annual Product Tanker Demand Outlook by Region/Country


Australasia 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2

Canada 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6

China 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.1 4.5

E&S Africa 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4

Europe 19.0 21.4 22.1 21.3 21.7 21.9

Indonesia 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.8

Japan 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5

Korea 9.5 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4

Mexico 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5

Middle East 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4

North Africa 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.8

Other Africa 3.6 4.2 4.6 3.7 4.0 5.3

Other Asia Pac 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.3

Singapore 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3

S&C America 7.8 8.1 7.3 7.7 8.3 9.1

United States 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3

West Africa 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0



Key CPP Importers

1.98 2.18 2.19 1.99 1.98 2.16 2.403.03 3.06 2.98

3.59 3.75 3.99 3.88 3.37 3.40 3.40 3.43 3.43

2.442.58 2.59 2.49 2.54 2.53 2.38

2.30 2.61 2.592.34 2.46

2.78 2.732.72 2.70 2.66 2.61 2.570.53 0.50 0.74

0.770.74 0.92

1.071.18

1.27 1.461.48 1.51 1.54 1.57 1.60

0.570.43 0.38

0.24 0.37 0.380.52

0.830.95 0.97

0.800.76

0.85 0.840.86 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.91

0.250.26 0.39

0.410.40 0.48

0.58

0.650.81 0.81

0.730.79

0.89 1.031.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07

0.24 0.250.31

0.400.48 0.53

0.620.72

0.69 0.630.69 0.75 0.82 0.89 0.97

0.53 0.50 0.70 0.62 0.600.53

0.25

0.30 0.390.35

0.38

0.28 0.210.26 0.31 0.36 0.42 0.48

0.38

0.29 0.36 0.22 0.25 0.240.25

0.16

0.21 0.300.42

0.42

0.46 0.420.39 0.37 0.36 0.34 0.37

0.16 0.26 0.27 0.240.40

0.42

0.340.44

0.420.34

0.36 0.43

0.76 0.660.79

1.14

1.351.22

1.521.32

1.371.65

1.56 1.541.58 1.61 1.63 1.67

1.73

0.23 0.250.19

0.19

0.210.21

0.31 0.310.36

0.47

0.58 0.580.59 0.60 0.61 0.61

0.62

1.13

1.19

1.381.08

1.311.36

2.082.17

2.16 1.982.03

2.372.13 2.29

2.262.39 2.67

2.803.36

+12%

+15%‐5%

+6%+6%

+17%+6%

+9% +0%+4%

+8%+4% +1%

‐2%+2%

+2%+2%

+5%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Key CPP Trades Discharging EastMillion DWT required @ 'Constant' Speed

Other East Discharge

Naphtha into Singapore

Naphtha into Taiwan

'Other' gasoline from Europe

'Other' gasoil from Korea

Gasoil into Indonesia

Gasoline into Indonesia

Gasoline into Singapore

Gasoil into Singapore

Gasoil Into Australia

Naphtha into Japan

Naphtha into Korea

Braemar ACM Forecast

1.72 1.69 1.97 2.42 2.72 2.37 2.77 3.34 3.48 3.52 3.32 3.72 3.614.52 5.27 5.58 5.54 5.77 5.952.44 2.55 2.71

3.59 3.56 3.56 3.41 2.92 2.88 2.62 2.44 2.39 2.472.54

2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55

0.89 0.961.14

1.27 1.32 1.60 1.79 1.94 1.65 1.85 1.962.09 2.37

2.302.32 2.30 2.07 2.03 1.97

0.720.93 1.21

1.23 1.15 1.22 1.23 1.170.99 1.18

1.061.06 1.08 1.08 1.04 1.06

0.56 0.520.53

0.540.57 0.61

0.65 0.73 0.82 0.63 0.80 0.720.75

0.800.78 0.77 0.74 0.73 0.70

0.50 0.72 0.630.79

0.870.86 0.94 0.96 1.06

0.540.76

1.461.66 1.59

2.02 1.87 2.33 2.342.60

2.192.33 1.96 2.08 2.21 2.40

0.62 0.530.70

1.061.04

1.33 0.38 0.370.50 0.41

0.51 0.59

0.740.89

0.88 0.88 0.88 0.880.88

0.44

0.67 0.96 1.001.36 1.24

1.29 1.40

1.531.77

1.99 2.281.25

1.461.74

0.41

0.63 0.57 0.56

0.78 1.021.02 0.96

1.031.17

1.45 1.44

1.471.60

2.18

1.37 1.891.93

2.232.27

1.64 1.51 1.32

1.40 1.340.99 1.06

1.601.21

1.15 1.09

1.481.35

1.36

+6%+10%

+26%+7%

+8% ‐1% +0%

+9% ‐1% +2% +2%

+11% +3%

+7% +1%‐4%

+3%

+6%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Key CPP Trades Discharging WestMillion DWT required @ 'Constant' Speed

Other West Discharge

Gasoil into Africa

Gasoline into Africa

Jet into USA

Gasoil into Other Latin Am

Gasoline into Other Latin Am

Naphtha into Europe

Gasoil into Mexico

Gasoline into Mexico

Jet into Europe

Gasoline into USA

Gasoil into Europe




Key CPP Importers

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50 Days

CPP Volumes moved vs. Avg voyage days

GO

Gasoline

Jet

Nap

Avg Voy. Days (Clean)

m tonnes / month

at constant speed (14.5 kts)

7.2%5.9%2.4%

9.1% ‐0.3% 2.9%4.7%

7.5%2.7% 3.3%1.6%‐2.2%

2.8%

6.1%

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 m DWT

CPP DWT Required @ 14.5 kts

GO

Gasoline

Jet

Nap

1.7 2.0 2.1 2.9 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.30.9 0.8 0.91.1 1.7

2.5 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.11.2

1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.26.3 7.18.2

7.9 8.58.7 9.4 10.0

11.4 11.5 11.3 11.4 11.311.8

11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.3

0.81.0

1.1 1.00.9

1.3 2.12.2

2.0 1.9 2.73.6

4.13.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0

4.2

6.67.0

7.79.5

10.3

10.411.2

11.0

11.7

12.1 12.913.0

14.414.3

15.1 15.2 14.214.9

16.1

+9%

+12%

+12% +7%

+7%+6% +2%

+9% ‐0%+3%

+5%

+8%+3% +3%

+2% +3%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Key Inter‐Regional CPP MovementsMillion DWT required per month at 'Constant' Speed

Intra‐West

West to East

Intra‐East

Trans‐Pacific

East to West


Million DWT required at 'Observed' Speed

‐2%


Million DWT required at 'Observed' Speed

+6%



Clean Tanker Supply / Demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

BCTImillion dwt

Product tanker supply / demand balanceForecast as of August 2015

BCTI Clean Tanker Supply

Dwt required @ 'Actual' speed (Clean) Dwt required @ 14.5 kts (Clean)

BRAEMAR ACM DEMAND FORECAST

12kts laden12kts ballast 14.5kts laden

14.5kts ballast

no removal, no future orders

likely removals, likely future orders

likely removal, no future orders

removal at 15 yrs, no future orders

removal at 20yrs, no future orders



CLEAN IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Braemar ACM Forecasts in Red

2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 Jan‐15 Feb‐15 Mar‐15 Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Million tonnes / month

Japan 1.81 1.80 1.84 1.86 1.79 1.88 1.61 1.87 1.44 1.89 1.86 1.97 1.79 1.73

USA 3.49 3.54 3.75 3.73 4.60 4.85 4.32 4.62 3.88 4.66 3.32 3.73 4.60 3.95

Europe 17.84 18.70 18.19 17.22 18.63 19.00 17.21 19.69 20.23 19.76 21.08 18.16 18.63 20.36

‐of which seaborne 9.74 10.12 10.10 9.71 10.19 10.46 8.93 11.17 10.66 11.06 11.13 9.67 10.19 10.95

Korea 2.11 2.16 2.05 2.29 2.05 2.25 2.04 1.86 1.68 2.22 1.68 2.10 2.05 1.86

Australia 1.20 1.38 1.48 1.26 1.71 1.80 1.72 1.62 1.45 2.28 1.86 1.66 1.71 1.86

China 1.03 1.01 0.73 0.62 1.28 0.72 1.71 1.41 1.13 0.62 0.54 0.92 1.28 0.77

Vietnam¹ 0.08 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.12 0.06 0.07 0.00 0.12 0.06 0.04

Indonesia 1.62 1.71 1.65 1.69 0.39 1.18 0.00 0.00 1.97 1.43 1.69 1.87 0.39 1.70

Argentina¹ 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.21 0.21 0.12 0.29 0.17 0.21 0.31 0.16 0.21 0.23

Chile 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.41 0.30 0.28 0.23 0.34 0.40 0.27

Brazil¹ 0.55 0.31 0.44 0.54 0.58 0.50 0.73 0.53 0.29 0.25 0.17 0.52 0.58 0.23

Mexico 1.87 1.63 1.86 1.80 1.93 1.94 1.93 1.92 1.53 1.53 1.44 2.21 1.93 1.50

Canada 0.44 0.44 0.50 0.41 0.51 0.62 0.44 0.48 0.68 0.49 0.48 0.55 0.51 0.55

Africa¹ 1.98 2.00 2.13 1.98 1.85 2.18 1.53 1.84 2.60 3.16 2.71 2.02 1.85 2.82

OthLatAm¹ 2.23 2.56 2.76 2.62 2.86 3.04 2.54 3.01 1.91 2.33 2.08 2.95 2.86 2.11

Singapore 2.75 2.71 2.99 3.15 3.12 2.99 2.75 3.62 3.55 3.22 3.11 2.76 3.12 3.29

Hong Kong 0.76 0.76 0.74 0.68 0.88 0.95 0.84 0.86 1.24 0.59 0.45 0.84 0.88 0.76

Middle East¹ 0.48 0.41 0.44 0.42 0.75 0.55 0.77 0.93 0.21 0.37 0.26 0.44 0.75 0.28

Malaysia 0.90 1.27 1.26 1.31 0.86 0.91 0.74 0.93 1.52 1.48 1.40 1.15 0.86 1.47

Taiwan 0.93 1.06 1.06 1.20 1.17 1.28 0.74 1.49 1.35 0.88 1.29 1.07 1.17 1.17

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.45 0.44 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.57 0.32 0.46 0.62 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.45 0.61

Total Seaborne 35.00 35.96 36.99 36.45 37.64 39.30 34.19 39.43 38.25 39.63 36.60 37.63 37.64 38.16

Million b/d

Japan 0.49 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.48 0.51 0.43 0.50 0.39 0.51 0.50 0.53 0.48 0.47

USA 0.95 0.96 1.01 0.99 1.22 1.29 1.15 1.23 1.04 1.27 0.90 1.01 1.22 1.07

Europe 4.57 4.77 4.65 4.41 4.76 4.86 4.40 5.02 5.16 5.04 5.39 4.64 4.76 5.20


Korea 0.57 0.58 0.55 0.62 0.55 0.61 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.60 0.45 0.56 0.55 0.50

Australia 0.31 0.35 0.38 0.32 0.44 0.46 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.58 0.47 0.42 0.44 0.47

China 0.26 0.26 0.19 0.16 0.34 0.19 0.46 0.37 0.30 0.16 0.14 0.24 0.34 0.20

Vietnam¹ 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01

Indonesia 0.44 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.11 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.39 0.46 0.51 0.11 0.46

Argentina¹ 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.06

Chile 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.07

Brazil¹ 0.14 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.19 0.14 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.13 0.15 0.06

Mexico 0.50 0.44 0.50 0.49 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.41 0.41 0.39 0.59 0.52 0.41

Canada 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.11 0.13 0.18 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.15

Africa¹ 0.52 0.53 0.57 0.52 0.50 0.59 0.42 0.50 0.70 0.84 0.72 0.54 0.50 0.75

OthLatAm¹ 0.57 0.66 0.71 0.67 0.74 0.78 0.66 0.78 0.49 0.60 0.53 0.76 0.74 0.54

Singapore 0.73 0.72 0.79 0.83 0.83 0.80 0.73 0.96 0.94 0.85 0.81 0.73 0.83 0.87

Hong Kong 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.17 0.22 0.24 0.21 0.22 0.31 0.15 0.11 0.21 0.22 0.19

Middle East¹ 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.21 0.15 0.21 0.26 0.06 0.10 0.07 0.12 0.21 0.08

Malaysia 0.24 0.34 0.33 0.34 0.23 0.24 0.20 0.25 0.40 0.39 0.37 0.30 0.23 0.39

Taiwan 0.25 0.29 0.28 0.32 0.32 0.35 0.20 0.40 0.36 0.24 0.35 0.29 0.32 0.32

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.15

Total Seaborne 9.18 9.42 9.69 9.54 9.88 10.33 8.99 10.33 10.03 10.40 9.58 9.88 9.88 10.00

Million DWT Required²

Japan 2.82 2.97 3.36 3.60 3.31 3.54 2.98 3.42 2.64 3.41 3.07 3.55 3.31 3.04

USA 3.72 3.98 4.75 4.70 5.94 5.76 6.05 6.00 5.10 5.83 4.27 4.44 5.94 5.07

Europe 7.03 7.73 8.10 7.48 7.10 7.39 6.53 7.37 8.60 8.35 8.58 7.95 7.10 8.51

Korea 4.25 4.52 4.78 5.31 4.95 5.29 5.40 4.15 3.96 5.23 3.95 4.94 4.95 4.38

Australia 1.78 2.07 2.23 1.92 2.67 2.82 2.68 2.50 2.19 3.46 2.81 2.46 2.67 2.82

China 0.80 0.79 0.63 0.58 0.98 0.65 1.33 0.95 0.85 0.40 0.33 0.85 0.98 0.52

Vietnam¹ 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.06 0.00 0.09 0.05 0.03

Indonesia 1.09 1.26 1.10 1.23 0.25 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 0.25 0.00

Argentina¹ 0.43 0.51 0.56 0.54 0.46 0.46 0.28 0.64 0.38 0.47 0.69 0.36 0.46 0.51

Chile 0.37 0.41 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.48 0.52 0.50 0.38 0.36 0.30 0.46 0.50 0.35

Brazil¹ 1.16 0.60 0.84 1.07 1.11 0.92 1.47 0.96 0.54 0.46 0.31 0.97 1.11 0.44

Mexico 1.80 1.55 1.88 2.02 1.83 1.70 1.90 1.89 1.48 1.49 1.40 2.11 1.83 1.46

Canada 0.30 0.29 0.34 0.22 0.29 0.38 0.23 0.25 0.48 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.29 0.39

Africa¹ 2.66 2.77 3.00 2.85 2.53 2.93 2.21 2.44 3.68 4.43 3.68 2.75 2.53 3.93

OthLatAm¹ 1.61 1.91 2.07 2.05 2.24 2.21 2.26 2.26 1.43 1.77 1.56 2.24 2.24 1.59

Singapore 2.13 2.31 2.67 2.97 2.92 2.50 2.79 3.47 3.64 2.92 2.78 2.44 2.92 3.11

Hong Kong 0.44 0.48 0.41 0.42 0.49 0.53 0.49 0.44 0.63 0.31 0.24 0.44 0.49 0.39

Middle East¹ 0.34 0.27 0.30 0.29 0.50 0.36 0.55 0.59 0.15 0.25 0.18 0.31 0.50 0.19

Malaysia 0.31 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.42 0.43 0.38 0.44 0.75 0.72 0.68 0.54 0.42 0.72

Taiwan 1.58 1.94 1.84 2.13 1.85 1.68 1.47 2.40 2.39 1.50 2.16 1.78 1.85 2.02

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.49 0.45 0.47 0.44 0.47 0.60 0.34 0.47 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.60 0.47 0.60

Total DWT Required 34.69 37.03 40.01 40.57 40.37 40.79 39.54 40.76 39.30 41.79 37.32 40.23 40.37 39.47

¹excluding imports from outside 'modelled' regions

²not including multiple, see note on page 4 of this section

By QuarterFull Year Year to Mar



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 Jan‐15 Feb‐15 Mar‐15 Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15

million tonnes / month

Seaborne Gasoil Imports by CountryOther (JODI)

Saudi Arabia

OthAsiaPac¹

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Singapore

OthLatAm¹

Africa¹

Canada

Mexico

Brazil¹

Chile

Argentina¹

Indonesia

Vietnam¹

China

Australia

Korea

Europe

USA

JapanYear to Mar Braemar ACM Forecast

¹ from OECD & China only

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16



Seaborne Gasoline Imports by CountryOther (JODI)

OthAsiaPac¹

Malaysia

Singapore

OthLatAm¹

Africa¹

Canada

Mexico

Brazil¹

Middle East¹

Indonesia

Vietnam¹

China

Australia

Europe

USA



Clean Product Imports



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5



Seaborne Jet Fuel Imports by Country Other (JODI)

Nigeria

OthAsiaPac¹

Hong Kong

Canada

Brazil¹

China

Australia

Europe

USA

Japan

Year to Mar Braemar ACM Forecast


Clean Product Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10



Seaborne Naphtha Imports by Country

Other (JODI)

Thailand

OthAsiaPac¹

Singapore

Taiwan

Mexico

China

Korea

Europe

USA

Japan




GASOLINE IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Braemar ACM Forecasts in Red



Japan 0.17 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.16 0.30 0.08 0.06 0.17

USA 2.57 2.41 2.40 2.00 2.46 2.64 2.21 2.52 2.46 3.39 2.34 2.51 2.46 2.73

Europe 2.42 2.22 2.15 2.16 2.15 2.24 2.12 2.08 2.31 2.22 2.54 2.17 2.15 2.36


Australia 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.41 0.37 0.45 0.40 0.27 0.48 0.31 0.32 0.41 0.35

China 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.93 0.36 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.12

Vietnam¹ 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.06 0.01

Indonesia 1.11 1.22 1.24 1.17 0.39 1.18 0.00 0.00 1.43 1.08 1.19 1.40 0.39 1.23

Middle East¹ 0.48 0.41 0.44 0.42 0.75 0.55 0.77 0.93 0.21 0.37 0.26 0.44 0.75 0.28

Brazil¹ 0.16 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.28 0.21 0.31 0.31 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.28 0.08

Mexico 1.32 1.14 1.25 1.25 1.35 1.37 1.31 1.37 1.02 1.05 1.00 1.47 1.35 1.02

Canada 0.22 0.20 0.23 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.10 0.18 0.36 0.31 0.26 0.21 0.16 0.31

Africa¹ 1.12 1.19 1.28 1.10 1.33 1.51 1.19 1.28 1.71 1.82 1.67 1.24 1.33 1.73

OthLatAm¹ 0.66 0.75 0.84 0.84 1.06 1.10 1.04 1.04 0.59 0.81 0.63 1.00 1.06 0.68

Singapore 1.09 1.08 1.15 1.25 1.28 1.36 1.04 1.44 1.35 1.32 0.92 1.14 1.28 1.20

Malaysia 0.55 0.70 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.57 0.54 0.54 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.57 0.55 0.80

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.14 0.08 0.19 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.14 0.15

Total Seaborne 10.92 10.52 11.08 10.58 11.70 12.31 11.06 11.74 11.96 12.79 10.97 11.64 11.70 11.91

Million b/d

Japan 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.05

USA 0.72 0.67 0.67 0.56 0.69 0.74 0.62 0.71 0.69 0.95 0.65 0.70 0.69 0.76

Europe 0.68 0.62 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.62 0.59 0.58 0.65 0.62 0.71 0.61 0.60 0.66


Australia 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.14 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.10

China 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.26 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.03

Vietnam¹ 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00

Indonesia 0.31 0.34 0.35 0.33 0.11 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.30 0.33 0.39 0.11 0.34

Middle East¹ 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.21 0.15 0.21 0.26 0.06 0.10 0.07 0.12 0.21 0.08

Brazil¹ 0.05 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.02

Mexico 0.37 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.41 0.38 0.29

Canada 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.09

Africa¹ 0.31 0.33 0.36 0.31 0.37 0.42 0.33 0.36 0.48 0.51 0.47 0.35 0.37 0.48

OthLatAm¹ 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.24 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.17 0.23 0.18 0.28 0.30 0.19

Singapore 0.30 0.30 0.32 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.29 0.40 0.38 0.37 0.26 0.32 0.36 0.33

Malaysia 0.15 0.20 0.18 0.19 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.16 0.15 0.22

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04

Total Seaborne 3.05 2.94 3.10 2.96 3.27 3.44 3.09 3.28 3.34 3.57 3.07 3.25 3.27 3.33


Japan 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.14 0.03 0.03 0.08

USA 2.71 2.76 2.88 2.03 2.77 2.65 2.78 2.89 3.00 4.09 2.80 2.96 2.77 3.30

Europe 0.24 0.26 0.36 0.43 0.27 0.33 0.29 0.20 0.31 0.34 0.38 0.31 0.27 0.34

Australia 0.30 0.35 0.37 0.35 0.67 0.61 0.75 0.65 0.41 0.74 0.48 0.51 0.67 0.54

China 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.55 0.13 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.05

Vietnam¹ 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.09 0.05 0.01

Indonesia 0.70 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.25 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.87 0.25 0.00

Middle East¹ 0.34 0.27 0.30 0.29 0.50 0.36 0.55 0.59 0.15 0.25 0.18 0.31 0.50 0.19

Brazil¹ 0.30 0.09 0.18 0.29 0.52 0.37 0.63 0.57 0.28 0.09 0.09 0.18 0.52 0.15

Mexico 1.34 1.15 1.37 1.55 1.35 1.24 1.35 1.45 1.06 1.08 1.03 1.50 1.35 1.06

Canada 0.19 0.14 0.20 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.08 0.12 0.32 0.28 0.24 0.18 0.13 0.28

Africa¹ 1.49 1.64 1.79 1.59 1.81 2.04 1.69 1.70 2.40 2.51 2.19 1.69 1.81 2.37

OthLatAm¹ 0.53 0.64 0.74 0.77 0.92 0.90 0.96 0.90 0.51 0.71 0.54 0.90 0.92 0.59

Singapore 0.82 0.90 1.03 1.24 1.35 1.24 1.14 1.68 1.61 1.26 0.88 1.00 1.35 1.25

Malaysia 0.19 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.25 0.25 0.29 0.20 0.37 0.35 0.33 0.22 0.25 0.35

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.14 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.16 0.18 0.08 0.21 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.16 0.17


¹excluding imports of unknown origin





GASOIL IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Braemar ACM Forecasts in Red



Japan 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.04

USA 0.56 0.73 0.86 1.32 1.47 1.51 1.53 1.36 0.84 0.83 0.55 0.76 1.47 0.74

Europe 10.24 11.04 10.57 9.95 11.06 11.09 10.07 12.02 11.87 11.77 12.08 10.78 11.06 11.91


Korea 0.07 0.13 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03

Australia 0.83 0.92 0.99 0.82 1.02 1.18 0.98 0.89 0.97 1.45 1.29 1.03 1.02 1.24

China 0.24 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.27 0.10 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.10 0.04

Vietnam¹ 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04

Indonesia 0.52 0.49 0.41 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.35 0.51 0.48 0.00 0.47

Argentina¹ 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.21 0.21 0.12 0.29 0.17 0.21 0.31 0.16 0.21 0.23

Chile 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.41 0.30 0.28 0.23 0.34 0.40 0.27

Brazil¹ 0.36 0.27 0.34 0.38 0.31 0.30 0.41 0.21 0.14 0.20 0.12 0.42 0.31 0.15

Mexico 0.55 0.44 0.55 0.49 0.54 0.51 0.63 0.49 0.40 0.43 0.39 0.69 0.54 0.41

Canada 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.18 0.26 0.16 0.13 0.15 0.06 0.10 0.16 0.18 0.10

Africa¹ 0.86 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.52 0.66 0.34 0.56 0.89 1.34 1.04 0.78 0.52 1.09

OthLatAm¹ 1.57 1.81 1.92 1.77 1.81 1.94 1.50 1.97 1.32 1.52 1.45 1.96 1.81 1.43

Singapore 1.17 1.04 1.15 1.25 1.14 0.86 1.09 1.46 1.36 1.23 1.70 0.92 1.14 1.43

Hong Kong 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.46 0.57 0.44 0.38 0.52 0.27 0.14 0.28 0.46 0.31

Malaysia 0.35 0.57 0.61 0.62 0.31 0.34 0.19 0.40 0.70 0.68 0.64 0.57 0.31 0.67

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.32 0.32 0.35 0.34 0.30 0.42 0.23 0.26 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.30 0.44

Total Seaborne 13.75 14.59 14.96 15.21 14.63 15.09 12.95 15.85 15.28 15.65 15.37 14.60 14.63 15.44

Million b/d

Japan 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

USA 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.32 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.34 0.21 0.20 0.14 0.19 0.36 0.18

Europe 2.52 2.72 2.61 2.45 2.73 2.73 2.48 2.96 2.93 2.90 2.98 2.66 2.73 2.94


Korea 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01

Australia 0.20 0.23 0.24 0.20 0.25 0.29 0.24 0.22 0.24 0.36 0.32 0.25 0.25 0.30

China 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.01

Vietnam¹ 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Indonesia 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.11

Argentina¹ 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.06

Chile 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.07

Brazil¹ 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.10 0.08 0.04

Mexico 0.13 0.11 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.17 0.13 0.10

Canada 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03

Africa¹ 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.13 0.16 0.08 0.14 0.22 0.33 0.26 0.19 0.13 0.27

OthLatAm¹ 0.39 0.45 0.47 0.44 0.45 0.48 0.37 0.49 0.33 0.37 0.36 0.48 0.45 0.35

Singapore 0.29 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.28 0.21 0.27 0.36 0.34 0.30 0.42 0.23 0.28 0.35

Hong Kong 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.08

Malaysia 0.09 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.08 0.17

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.07 0.11

Total Seaborne 5.77 6.14 6.08 5.88 5.97 6.08 5.30 6.54 6.49 6.56 6.63 6.07 5.97 6.56


Japan 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

USA 0.28 0.40 0.85 1.83 1.64 1.62 1.89 1.39 0.76 0.72 0.49 0.59 1.64 0.66

Europe 3.65 4.22 4.11 4.13 3.92 3.87 3.62 4.27 4.81 3.99 4.51 4.16 3.92 4.44

Korea 0.07 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04

Australia 1.24 1.39 1.49 1.25 1.57 1.83 1.54 1.34 1.46 2.19 1.94 1.50 1.57 1.86

China 0.23 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.10 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.02

Vietnam¹ 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03

Indonesia 0.40 0.44 0.32 0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00

Argentina¹ 0.43 0.51 0.56 0.54 0.46 0.46 0.28 0.64 0.38 0.47 0.69 0.36 0.46 0.51

Chile 0.37 0.41 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.48 0.52 0.50 0.38 0.36 0.30 0.46 0.50 0.35

Brazil¹ 0.77 0.51 0.65 0.78 0.59 0.55 0.84 0.39 0.26 0.38 0.23 0.79 0.59 0.29

Mexico 0.46 0.36 0.46 0.44 0.45 0.41 0.56 0.39 0.33 0.36 0.32 0.57 0.45 0.34

Canada 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.09 0.06

Africa¹ 1.17 1.13 1.21 1.26 0.72 0.89 0.52 0.74 1.28 1.92 1.49 1.06 0.72 1.57

OthLatAm¹ 1.09 1.28 1.33 1.27 1.33 1.31 1.30 1.36 0.92 1.06 1.01 1.33 1.33 1.00

Singapore 0.90 0.87 0.98 1.08 0.94 0.62 1.02 1.18 1.18 1.04 1.42 0.78 0.94 1.21

Hong Kong 0.22 0.24 0.16 0.20 0.27 0.34 0.28 0.20 0.26 0.15 0.08 0.15 0.27 0.16

Malaysia 0.12 0.31 0.32 0.29 0.17 0.17 0.09 0.24 0.38 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.17 0.37

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.30 0.31 0.34 0.33 0.30 0.42 0.25 0.25 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.40 0.30 0.43




Year to MarFull Year By Quarter



JET FUEL IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Braemar ACM Forecasts in Red



Japan 0.08 0.10 0.05 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.02 0.02

USA 0.24 0.29 0.38 0.30 0.56 0.56 0.46 0.64 0.58 0.44 0.43 0.37 0.56 0.48

Europe 2.41 2.67 2.62 2.15 2.27 2.27 1.99 2.54 3.14 2.61 2.91 2.40 2.27 2.89


Australia 0.17 0.23 0.24 0.20 0.29 0.24 0.30 0.32 0.21 0.35 0.26 0.32 0.29 0.27

China 0.53 0.60 0.35 0.37 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.28 0.22 0.29 0.43 0.31 0.35 0.32

Brazil¹ 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Canada 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.12 0.11 0.18 0.17 0.13

Hong Kong 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.43 0.42 0.38 0.40 0.48 0.73 0.32 0.31 0.55 0.42 0.45

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Total Seaborne 3.31 3.59 3.45 2.95 3.31 3.24 3.05 3.65 3.72 3.54 3.39 3.46 3.31 3.55

Million b/d

Japan 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00

USA 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.08 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.14 0.12

Europe 0.62 0.68 0.67 0.55 0.58 0.58 0.51 0.65 0.81 0.67 0.75 0.62 0.58 0.74


Australia 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.07

China 0.14 0.16 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.08

Brazil¹ 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Canada 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.03

Hong Kong 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.19 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.11 0.12

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total Seaborne 0.85 0.92 0.89 0.76 0.85 0.83 0.78 0.94 0.96 0.91 0.87 0.89 0.85 0.91


Japan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

USA 0.60 0.70 0.88 0.72 1.36 1.25 1.18 1.65 1.34 1.02 0.99 0.80 1.36 1.11

Europe 2.25 2.45 2.79 2.08 1.92 2.11 1.65 2.00 2.67 3.07 2.75 2.57 1.92 2.83

Australia 0.24 0.34 0.38 0.31 0.43 0.39 0.39 0.51 0.32 0.53 0.39 0.45 0.43 0.42

China 0.26 0.32 0.16 0.19 0.17 0.16 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.13 0.20 0.14 0.17 0.14

Brazil¹ 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Canada 0.09 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.06

Hong Kong 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.21 0.24 0.37 0.16 0.16 0.29 0.21 0.23

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01




Full Year Year to Mar By Quarter



NAPHTHA IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Braemar ACM Forecasts in Red



Japan 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.69 1.67 1.75 1.48 1.78 1.33 1.69 1.49 1.76 1.67 1.50

USA 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.12 0.00

Europe 2.78 2.77 2.85 2.96 3.16 3.41 3.03 3.05 2.90 3.16 3.56 2.81 3.16 3.21


Korea 2.04 2.03 2.02 2.24 2.03 2.24 2.03 1.83 1.66 2.19 1.65 2.06 2.03 1.84

China 0.25 0.32 0.31 0.20 0.40 0.31 0.40 0.49 0.44 0.32 0.10 0.53 0.40 0.29

Mexico 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.00 0.06 0.12 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.08

Taiwan 0.93 1.06 1.06 1.20 1.17 1.28 0.74 1.49 1.35 0.88 1.29 1.07 1.17 1.17

Singapore 0.49 0.59 0.69 0.65 0.70 0.77 0.63 0.71 0.84 0.66 0.50 0.70 0.70 0.66

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01

Total Seaborne 7.03 7.26 7.50 7.72 7.99 8.66 7.13 8.18 7.28 7.65 6.87 7.94 7.99 7.27

Million b/d

Japan 0.41 0.42 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.47 0.40 0.48 0.36 0.46 0.40 0.48 0.45 0.41

USA 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00

Europe 0.75 0.75 0.77 0.80 0.85 0.92 0.82 0.82 0.78 0.85 0.96 0.76 0.85 0.86


Korea 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.60 0.55 0.60 0.55 0.49 0.45 0.59 0.45 0.55 0.55 0.50

China 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.03 0.14 0.11 0.08

Mexico 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02

Taiwan 0.25 0.29 0.28 0.32 0.32 0.35 0.20 0.40 0.36 0.24 0.35 0.29 0.32 0.32

Singapore 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.17 0.19 0.23 0.18 0.13 0.19 0.19 0.18

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00

Total Seaborne 1.89 1.96 2.02 2.08 2.15 2.33 1.92 2.21 1.96 2.06 1.85 2.14 2.15 1.96


Japan 2.71 2.90 3.29 3.56 3.26 3.48 2.93 3.38 2.60 3.32 2.90 3.49 3.26 2.94

USA 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.17 0.25 0.19 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.17 0.00

Europe 0.88 0.80 0.84 0.84 0.98 1.08 0.96 0.90 0.80 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.98 0.90

Korea 4.17 4.42 4.73 5.26 4.90 5.25 5.35 4.09 3.92 5.19 3.91 4.90 4.90 4.34

China 0.31 0.39 0.41 0.32 0.53 0.46 0.58 0.57 0.54 0.26 0.12 0.68 0.53 0.31

Mexico 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.06

Taiwan 1.58 1.94 1.84 2.13 1.85 1.68 1.47 2.40 2.39 1.50 2.16 1.78 1.85 2.02

Singapore 0.41 0.54 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.64 0.63 0.61 0.85 0.63 0.47 0.66 0.63 0.65

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00







NOTES ON PRODUCT IMPORTER / EXPORTER GRAPHS

1) These charts display our view of the NET impact (in the case of regions) on NET IMPORTS and NET EXPORTS of the shi s that we expect to see each

region or country go through towards deficit or surplus for each grade of refined petroleum product. For instance, in China we expect a growing

Chinese surplus of jet to cut jet imports and boost China’s jet exports. As China currently imports virtually no gasoil or gasoline, a growing surplus

would feed into export. The net effect of all these changes is shown in the bars. Some mes where several countries are grouped together as regions—

for instance ‘Other Asia Pacific’ ‐ growing exports of some countries in the region risk being disguised by growing imports of other countries.

2) If a country is iden fied as a declining product importer we expect imports to fall UNLESS a) there are unforeseen closures in old, simple domes c

refineries, b) Unforeseen delays in bringing new refining capacity or upgrading on line or c) demand for a product grade that is not imported shi s

over to a product grade that is imported (for example if regula ons changed to ban consump on of high sulphur fuel oil in favour of low sulphur gasoil

or d) demand overall grows faster than we expect. THE REVERSE WOULD APPLY TO GROWING IMPORTERS.

3) If a country or region is iden fied as a growing exporter, this assumes that new refining capacity will force the closure of older simple refineries. This

resul ng change in flow of products around the world feeds into our projec on on average voyage length and triangula on opportunity. Exports will

increase UNLESS a) new refining capacity is delayed within countries / regions iden fied as exporters b) upgrading plan are shelved thereby cu ng the

surplus of lighter ends that would otherwise have been produced and exported.

Product Trade Outlook

‐1

‐0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

mb/d

Product Exporters (Braemar ACM View): Change in Export surplus

Korea

Indonesia

Other Asia Pacific

Singapore

Japan

India

China

Australasia


West Africa

North Africa

Middle East

FSU

Europe


Mexico

Canada

United States

LessSurplus

*all refined products excluding fuel oil and lpg

‐0.8

‐0.6

‐0.4

‐0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

mb/d

Product Importers (Braemar ACM View): Change in Imports needed

Korea

Indonesia

Other Asia Pacific

Singapore

Japan

India

China

Australasia


West Africa

North Africa

Middle East

FSU

Europe


Mexico

Canada

United States

Lessim

ports

*all refined products excluding fuel oil and lpg



8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%

10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9%

38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39%

9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Share of Oil Demand by Product

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

*Figures derived from IEA's MTOMR

2015

Braemar ACM Product Trade Outlook: Assumptions

Key Assump ons

1) Dis lla on capacity operates at the % of headline ca‐

pacity, yielding the split of product grades as per table

to the right.

2) Upgrading capacity addi ons will reduce fuel oil pro‐

duc on by 100% of the total b/d capacity added, and

increase naphtha/ jet / gasoil output by 8% / 24% /

50% respec vely of the total b/d capacity added. This

allows for the lower density of the lighter grades pro‐

duced.

3) Upgrading capacity dele ons are taken to be part of a

refinery closure, rather than units in isola on. There‐

fore fuel oil produc on is not increased as a DIRECT

result of the loss of upgrading capacity, even if the

‘average’ yield of remaining refineries would include

slightly more fuel oil as a result.

4) Demand for certain product grades will grow faster

than others. The latest medium‐term outlook oil report

by the IEA has provided demand forecast figures for

each oil product and each of the following regions:

China, India, Middle East, La n America, FSU, Africa,

Non‐OECD Europe, OECD Europe, OECD Americas and

OECD Asia Pacific.

Country / Region LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet Gasoil Fuel Oil Others Utilisat'n

United States 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 93%

Canada 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 88%

Mexico 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 75%

South & Central America 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 80%

Europe 4.7 0.0 21.2 9.6 35.1 22.6 13.8 90%

FSU 5.2 0.0 17.8 9.6 35.1 22.6 16.6 85%

Middle East 4.0 2.2 30.4 9.6 44.0 3.0 13.8 92%

North Africa 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 85%

West Africa 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 50%

East & Southern Africa 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 85%

Total Africa 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 85%

Australasia 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 80%

China 4.0 3.7 38.4 9.6 36.0 3.0 12.3 80%

India 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 95%

Japan 4.0 9.6 32.1 16.1 23.5 3.0 13.8 75%

Singapore 3.1 6.3 18.2 17.6 31.5 19.9 10.4 85%

Other Asia Pacific 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 75%

Indonesia 4.0 2.2 45.3 9.6 29.1 3.0 13.8 75%

Korea 4.0 21.4 16.1 12.8 32.1 3.0 13.8 85%

Average Refinery Yield By Region ‐ BACM Assumptions

India Product Trade Outlook

Braemar ACM view ‐ change in dis lla on capacity

2015

New: IOC Paradip (+300kb/d) ‐ Q4

Upgrading: +62kb/d (20% of IEA total for Other Asia +309k b/d)

2016

New: Nagarjuna Cuddalore (+120kb/d)


2017


2018

Expsn: IOC Gujarat (+86kb/d)

Expsn: IOC Panipat (+60kb/d)

New: BPCL Kochi (+120kb/d)


‐300‐200‐1000100200300400500600700

‐300‐200‐100

0100200300400500600700

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand

kb/dNet Change in Product Supply Balance since 2014

Deficit

Surplus

India

‐2.0

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

India

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline

mb/d Evolution of Product TradeImports

Exports

Source: JODIForecast: BACM



‐1200‐1000‐800‐600‐400‐2000200400600800

‐1200‐1000‐800‐600‐400‐200

0200400600800

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

United StatesUSA Product Trade Outlook

‐600‐400‐200020040060080010001200

‐600‐400‐200

0200400600800

10001200

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

Europe

Europe Product Trade Outlook


2015

New Spli er: Kinder Morgan Houston (+50kb/d) ‐ Q1

New Spli er: Mar n Corpus Chris (+100kb/d) ‐ Q2

New Spli er: Marathon Petroleum Catle sburg (+35kb/d) ‐ Q2

New Spli er: Castleton Corpus Chris (+100kb/d) ‐ Q2

New Spli er: Valero Houston (+90kb/d) ‐ Q4

New Spli er: Valero Corpus Chris (+70kb/d) ‐ Q4

Expsn: MDU Resources Dakota Prairie (+20kb/d) ‐ Q2

Expsn: Virtual Engineering Allen Parish (+20kb/d) ‐ Q4

Expsn: Valero Sunray (+25kb/d)

Expsn: Holly Corp Woods Cross (+14kb/d)

Upgrading: USA (+100kb/d) (70% of IEA total OECD America +143kb/d)

2016

New Spli er: Marathon Petroleum Robinson (+30kb/d) ‐ Q2

New Spli er: Magellan Corpus Chris (+50kb/d) ‐ Q4

New Spli er: Mar n Midstream Partners Corpus Chris (+100kb/d)

New Spli er: Targa Resource Houston (+35kb/d)

Expsn: The Three Affiliated Tribes Thunder Bu e (+15kb/d) ‐ Q1

Expsn: Calumet Montana Refining Great Falls (+20kb/d) ‐ Q1

Expsn: Alon Refining Bakersfield (+65kb/d)


2018



2015

Closure: Tamoil Collembey refinery (‐55kb/d)

Closure: Total Lindsey refinery (‐100kb/d)

Closure: (‐145k b/d) ‐ due compe on from new Asian refineries (IEA is

0kb/d)

Upgrading: +116k b/d (IEA is +116k b/d)

2016

Closure: Total La Mede (‐153k b/d)

Closure: (‐147k b/d) ‐ due compe on from new Asian refineries (IEA is

0kb/d)

Upgrading: +110k b/d (IEA is +110k b/d)

2018

New: SOCAR Aliaga/Izmir (+214k b/d)

Upgrading: +106kb/d (IEA is +106k b/d)

*Countries excluded from JODI’s data: Albania, Andorra, Liechtenstein,

Macedonia, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, San Marino

‐4.0

‐3.0

‐2.0

‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

United States

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline

mb/d Evolution of Product Trade

Imports

Exports


‐4.0

‐3.0

‐2.0

‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Europe

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports




‐500

‐400

‐300

‐200

‐100

0

100

200

‐500

‐400

‐300

‐200

‐100

0

100

200Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

JapanJapan Product Trade Outlook

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Other Asia Pacific

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports


‐600

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800

‐600

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

Other Asia Pacific

Other Asia Pacific Product Trade Outlook


2015

Closure: Cosmo Oil Chiba (‐48kb/d)

Closure: Tonen General + Kyokuto Unknown (‐76kb/d)

Closure: Petrobras Nansei Sekiyu (‐100kb/d) (not in IEA)

2016

Closure: JX Energy Unknown (‐121kb/d)

Closure: Showa Shell Unknown (‐34kb/d)

2017

Closure: Fuji Oil Unknown (‐13kb/d)

Closure: Idemitsu Kosan Ichihara Chiba (‐50kb/d)

Closure: Taiyo Oil Unknown (‐13kb/d)


2015

Expsn: PTT Bangchak, Thailand (+20kb/d)

Expsn: A ock Refinery Rawalpindi, Pakistan (+10kb/d)

New: Byco Baluchistan, Pakistan (+120kb/d) ‐ Q2

Closure: CPC Kaohsiung, Taiwan (‐205kb/d) ‐ Q4

Upgrading: Other Asia Pacific (+247kb/d) (80% of IEA total for Other Asia +309kb/d)

2016

New: CPC Ta‐Lin, Taiwan (+150kb/d)

Upgrading: Other Asia Pacific (+106kb/d) (80% of IEA total for Other Asia +133kb/d)

2017

New: Petrovietnam/KPC/Idemitsu Kosan Nghi Son, Vietnam (+200kb/d) ‐ Q3

Upgrading: Other Asia Pacific (+64k b/d) (80% of IEA total for Other Asia +80kb/d)

2018

Upgrading: Other Asia Pacific (+125k b/d) (80% of IEA total for Other Asia +156kb/d)

2019

New: Petronas Pengerang, Malaysia (+300k b/d) ‐ Q1

*Countries excluded from JODI’s data: Bhutan, Cambodia, Fiji, Kiriba , Laos, Mal‐

dives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Nauru, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Samoa,

Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Timor‐Leste, Tuvalu, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu

‐0.6

‐0.4

‐0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Japan

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports




‐2.0‐1.5‐1.0‐0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5

Singapore

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports


‐150‐100‐50050100150200250300

‐150‐100‐50050100150200250300

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

Singapore

Singapore Product Trade Outlook Braemar ACM view ‐ change in dis lla on capacity

No dis lla on capacity an cipated.

‐200‐150‐100‐50050100150200250300

‐200‐150‐100‐50050100150200250300

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

KoreaKorea Product Trade Outlook


2016

New Spli er: Hyundai Daesan (+140kb/d) ‐ Q3

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Korea

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports




‐150

‐100

‐50

0

50

100

150

‐150

‐100

‐50

0

50

100

150Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

Australasia

‐0.3‐0.2‐0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.6

Australasia

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports


Australasia Product Trade Outlook Braemar ACM view ‐ change in dis lla on capacity

2015

Closure: BP Bulwer Island (‐102k b/d) ‐ Q2

‐2.0

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

China

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports


‐1500

‐1000

‐500

0

500

1000

1500

‐1500

‐1000

‐500

0

500

1000

1500Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

China

China Product Trade Outlook Braemar ACM view ‐ change in dis lla on capacity

2015

New: Sinopec Jiujiang (+100kb/d)

New: CNPC Huabei (+100kb/d)

New Spli er: CNOOC Yanchang (+100kb/d)

Upgrading: +48k b/d (IEA is +48kb/d)

2016

New: CNPC Daqing (+90kb/d)

New: CNOOC Taizhou (+60kb/d)

New: CNOOC/Local Ningbo Daxie Zhejiang (+140kb/d)

New: CNPC/Saudi Aramco Kunming/Anning (+260kb/d)


2017

New: CNOOC Huizhou (+200kb/d)

New: Sinopec/KPC/Others Zhanjiang (+300kb/d)


2018

New: CNPC/PDVSA Jieyang (+400kb/d)


2019




‐0.4

‐0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Mexico

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports


‐90

‐70

‐50

‐30

‐10

10

30

50

‐90‐75‐60‐45‐30‐15015304560

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

Mexico

Mexico Product Trade Outlook

‐100‐80‐60‐40‐20020406080100

‐100‐80‐60‐40‐200

20406080100

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

Canada

Canada Product Trade Outlook


2015

Upgrading: Mexico (+14kb/d) (10% of IEA total for OECD America +143kb/d)

2016


2018


2019

New: Pemex Tula (+40k b/d)


2015

Upgrading: Canada (+29k b/d) (20% of IEA total for OECD America +123kb/d)

2016


2017

Expsn: North West Redwater Partnership Edmonton (+50k b/d) ‐ Q1

2018


‐0.5

‐0.4

‐0.3

‐0.2

‐0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Canada

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports




‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports


‐600

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800

‐600

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus


South & Central America Product Trade Outlook

‐1000‐800‐600‐400‐20002004006008001000

‐1000‐800‐600‐400‐200

0200400600800

1000Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

FSU

FSU Product Trade Outlook


2015

Expsn: Repsol La Plata, Argen na (+25kb/d) ‐ Q1

Expsn: Petrojam Kingston, Jamaica (+20kb/d) ‐ Q2 (not in IEA)

Expsn: Espresa Colombiana Cartagena, Colombia (+85kb/d) ‐ Q2


2016

Expsn: PDVSA Barinas, Venezuela (+60kb/d) ‐ Q3

Expsn: PDVSA Puerto de la Cruz, Venezuela (+30kb/d)

2017

New: Petrobras COMPERJ, Brazil (+165k b/d) ‐ Q3

Expsn: Petroperu Talara, Peru (+33kb/d) ‐ Q2 (IEA is 2019)

Upgrading: +163k b/d (IEA +163kb/d)

2018

New: Petrobras Pernambuco State Abreu e Lima, Brazil (+115kb/d)

2019


2020

Expsn: Ecopetrol Barrancaberneja‐Santander, Colombia (+50kb/d)


*Countries excluded from JODI’s data: Bahamas, Dominica, Saint Ki s and Nevis,

Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines


2015

New Spli er: Novatek Ust‐Luga (+70k b/d)

Upgrading: FSU (+133kb/d) (IEA is +133kb/d)

2016


2017

New: Kazmunigaz/CNPC Chimkent (+120kb/d)


2018


2019


2020


*Countries excluded from JODI’s data: Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,

Serbia, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan

‐3.0

‐2.5

‐2.0

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

FSU

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports




‐1600

‐1100

‐600

‐100

400

900

‐1600

‐1200

‐800

‐400

0

400

800

1200Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

Middle East

Middle East Product Trade Outlook


2016

Expsn: Na ec Arzew, Algeria (+25kb/d)

2017

Upgrading: North Africa (+34k b/d) (60% of IEA total for Africa +57kb/d)

2018

Expsn: MIDOR Alexandria, Egypt (+60kb/d)

2019

Upgrading: North Africa (+30k b/d) (60% of IEA total for Africa +50kb/d) ‐50

50

150

250

350

450

‐50050100150200250300350400450500

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

North Africa

North Africa Product Trade Outlook

Braemar ACM view ‐ change in dis lla on capacity 2015

New: Aramco Sinopec Yanbu, Saudi Arabia (+400k b/d) ‐ Q1

New: ADNOC Ruwais, UAE (+417kb/d) ‐ Q1

Upgrading: +217kb/d (IEA is +217kb/d)

2016

New Spli er: Na onal Iranian Oil Co. Persian Gulf Star 1, Iran (+120kb/d) ‐ Q1

New Spli er: Qatar Petroleum Ras Laffan 2, Qatar (+146kb/d) ‐ Q3

Expsn: Sohar Bitumen Refinery, Oman (+30kb/d)

Upgrading: +81kb/d (IEA is +81k b/d)

2017

New Spli er: Na onal Iranian Oil Co. Persian Gulf Star 2, Iran (+120kb/d)

Expsn: Saudi Aramco Sumitomo Rabigh 2, Saudi Arabia (+50kb/d)

Expsn: Oman Refinery Sohar, Oman (+60kb/d)

2018

Expsn: Qaiwan Baizan, Iraq (+50kb/d) ‐ Q1

New: Saudi Aramco Jizan, Saudi Arabia (+400kb/d)

New Spli er: Na onal Iranian Oil Co. Persian Gulf Star 3, Iran (+120kb/d)


2019

Expsn: Yemen Hunt Marib, Yemen (+15kb/d)

Expsn: KNPC Mina Abdulla, Kuwait (+65kb/d)


2020

New: Bahrain Petroleum Sitra 1, Bahrain (+350kb/d)

Expsn: Bahrain Petroleum Sitra 2, Bahrain (+88kb/d)

Closure: Bahrain Petroleum Sitra, Bahrain (‐262kb/d)


*Countries excluded from JODI’s data: Afghanistan, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Sudan

‐0.6

‐0.4

‐0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

North Africa

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports


‐2.5

‐2.0

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Middle East

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline

mb/d Evolution of Product TradeImports

Exports




West Africa Product Trade Outlook Braemar ACM view ‐ change in dis lla on capacity

2017

Upgrading: West Africa (+23k b/d) (40% of IEA total for Africa +57kb/d)

2018

New: Dangote Oil Refining Lagos, Nigeria (+650k b/d)

2019

New: Sonangol Lobito, Angola (+120k b/d)

Upgrading: West Africa (+20k b/d) (40% of IEA total for Africa +50kb/d)

*Countries excluded from JODI’s data: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape

Verde, Central African Republic, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea,

Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea‐Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Namibia,

Niger, Principe São Tomé, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo, Tonga


2018

New: Total/Tullow/CNOOC Alber ne Graben (+30kb/d)

*Countries excluded from JODI’s data: An gua and Barbuda, Botswana,

Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Djibou , Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Mad‐

agascar, Malawi, Mauri us, Mozambique, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia,

South Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

East & Southern Africa Product Trade Outlook

‐20020406080100120140160180

‐200

20406080

100120140160180

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus


‐0.3

‐0.2

‐0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

West Africa

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports


‐0.25‐0.20‐0.15‐0.10‐0.050.000.050.100.150.200.25


Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Import

Exports


‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

‐400‐300‐200‐100

0100200300400500600700

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

West Africa



Indonesia Product Trade Outlook Braemar ACM view ‐ change in dis lla on capacity

No dis lla on capacity an cipated.

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800

‐400‐300‐200‐100

0100200300400500600

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

Upgrading

Splitter

Distillation

Product Demand


Deficit

Surplus

Indonesia

‐0.4

‐0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Indonesia

Gasoil

Naphtha

Fuel Oil

Jet

Gasoline


Imports

Exports




CPP Trade by Vessel Segment

‐

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q12000

Q12002

Q12004

Q12006

Q12008

Q12010

Q12012

Q12014

Q12016

Q12018

Q12020

Clean‐Trading Tanker Supply

Handy

MR2

LR2

LR1

mil. tonnes Forecast1

1Basis NB Slippage; No fresh NB Ordering; Scrapping based on recent removal age

NOTES ON SUPPLY BY SEGMENT

1) This analysis considers only the trading fleet.

Vessels are removed from our numbers at

the moment they go into long‐term lay up,

or enter employment in restricted trades or

in long‐term floa ng storage IF we believe

they will never return to spot trading.

2) This takes a dynamic view of the spot fleet.

We take into account temporary removals

from spot trading either through dry dock‐

ing, short‐term floa ng storage, or short‐

term lay up.

3) Our scenario for future supply growth does

not take into account future ordering, which

could cause each segment to grow faster

(from 2015/16 onwards) than we suggest

here.

NOTES ON DEMAND BY SEGMENT

1) This is neither intended to represent a fore‐

cast of demand for each segment, not an

accurate portrayal of each sectors historical

supply / demand rela onship. Instead it

aims to demonstrate the extent to which

each vessel segment has gained business,

and will need to gain business in future from

other segments of the tanker fleet.

2) Each bilateral trade that we track for each

grade of product is divided up between each

segment of the tanker fleet according our

understanding of the trading pa ers over

the past 4 Qtrs. This is done using a combi‐

na on of fixture data and AIS movements.

Historical and future projec ons made here

ignore the compe on that takes place be‐

tween sectors, for instance MR2s poaching

cargoes from Handies, or Suezmaxes poach‐

ing cargoes from Aframaxes.

3) This analysis therefore reflects the rela ve

pressure each segment will feel to move

beyond its recent market into those of oth‐

er segments.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q12000

Q12002

Q12004

Q12006

Q12008

Q12010

Q12012

Q12014

Q12016

Q12018

Q12020

CPP Trade Growth by Vessel Segment

Handy

MR2

LR2

LR1

mil. tonnes (multiple of1) Forecast

1Historical & Forecast bilateral product trade is split up by vessel segment according to the share each segment makes up of each flow TODAY. No allowance is made for past / future inter‐segment poaching. A single multiple applied to each segment's allocation of total demand to compensate for any resulting under or overstatement of 'observed' utilisation (i.e. Rates)



LR2 Demand Vs. Supply

LR1 Demand Vs. Supply

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

LR1 Supply vs. Demand

Demand

Demand (Observed Speed)

Supply

mil. tonnes Forecast

Multiplier = 2.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

LR2 Supply vs. Demand

Demand

Demand (observed speed)

Supply

mil. tonnesForecast

Multiplier = 2.7

NB: Based on today’s trading pa erns—this ignores past or

future compe on between sectors



0

7

14

21

28

35

42

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 Daysm tonnes / monthLR2 / Aframax

Volumes moved &Average voyage days

Crude

FO

Nap

Jet

Gasoline

GO

Avg Voy. Days (Dirty)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5 Daysm tonnes / month LR2 CleanVolumes moved &

Average voyage days

Nap

Jet

Gasoline

GO


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 Daysm tonnes / monthLR1 / Panamax


Crude

FO

Nap

Jet

Gasoline

GO



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0 Daysm tonnes / monthLR1 Clean


Nap

Jet

Gasoline

GO




MR2 Demand Vs. Supply

Handy Demand Vs. Supply

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

MR2 Supply vs. Demand

Demand


Supply

mil. tonnes Forecast

Multiplier = 1.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Handy Supply vs Demand

Demand


Supply

mil. tonnesForecast

Multiplier = 2





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 Daysm tonnes / monthMR2


Crude

FO

Nap

Jet

Gasoline

GO



Historical

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6 Yr Avg

Clean 0.7% 9.3% 2.4% ‐0.4% 4.3% 6.9% 3.9%

Dirty 0.9% ‐1.9% 3.9% 0.5% 2.2% ‐1.9% 1.1%

Forecast Period

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6 Yr Avg

Clean 2.8% 3.8% 0.5% ‐3.7% 2.6% 7.0% 2.2%

Dirty 2.2% 2.1% 5.9% 4.3% 5.1% ‐5.6% 2.3%

Growth in trade allocated to sector ‐ MR2

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 Daysm tonnes / monthHandy


Crude

FO

Nap

Jet

Gasoline

GO



Historical

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6 Yr Avg

Clean 3.8% 4.2% ‐3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 4.8% 2.6%

Dirty 12.4% ‐10.7% ‐1.5% ‐4.3% 17.7% ‐1.2% 2.1%

Forecast Period

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6 Yr Avg

Clean 2.5% 4.5% 3.1% ‐0.1% 4.0% 6.1% 3.4%

Dirty 6.2% 4.2% 3.5% 4.1% 2.7% ‐2.3% 3.1%

Growth in trade allocated to sector



LR2 CPP Trade : Key Changes

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

India to Japan ‐ 8% on LR2

Japan to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 8% on LR2

North Africa to China ‐ 100% on LR2

Europe to United States ‐ 2% on LR2

India to Singapore ‐ 8% on LR2

Europe to North Africa ‐ 3% on LR2

FSU to China ‐ 87% on LR2

Korea to China ‐ 8% on LR2

Europe to Japan ‐ 80% on LR2

Korea to Japan ‐ 8% on LR2

Europe to Singapore ‐ 80% on LR2

Korea to Singapore ‐ 8% on LR2

Singapore to Indonesia ‐ 5% on LR2

North Africa to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 86% on LR2

Korea to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 8% on LR2

Middle East to Singapore ‐ 17% on LR2

North Africa to Japan ‐ 100% on LR2

Europe to Middle East ‐ 20% on LR2

Middle East to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 17% on LR2

Europe to Europe ‐ 3% on LR2

FSU to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 100% on LR2

Middle East to Japan ‐ 17% on LR2

Korea to Indonesia ‐ 95% on LR2

North Africa to Korea ‐ 87% on LR2

Europe to Korea ‐ 100% on LR2

FSU to Europe ‐ 5% on LR2

Middle East to Korea ‐ 17% on LR2

Europe to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 100% on LR2

Middle East to Europe ‐ 17% on LR2

FSU to Korea ‐ 100% on LR2

India to Europe ‐ 74% on LR2

Main LR2 Clean Trades in 2015 (m tonnes/month)

GASOIL GASOLINENAPHTHA JET/KERO

‐0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

ChangeQ1 2015 YoY

‐0.2 0.0 0.2

Change2013 ‐ 2015



LR1 CPP Trade : Key Changes

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Singapore to Australasia ‐ 3% on LR1

Singapore to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 3% on LR1

North Africa to Korea ‐ 13% on LR1

Other Asia Pacific to Singapore ‐ 3% on LR1

Europe to Mexico ‐ 10% on LR1

Korea to China ‐ 8% on LR1

Europe to South & Central America ‐ 10% on LR1

Korea to Japan ‐ 8% on LR1

India to Korea ‐ 26% on LR1

India to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 26% on LR1

FSU to United States ‐ 13% on LR1

United States to Europe ‐ 4% on LR1

Korea to Singapore ‐ 8% on LR1

United States to Mexico ‐ 4% on LR1

Korea to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 8% on LR1

Europe to Europe ‐ 2% on LR1

India to Japan ‐ 26% on LR1

Middle East to Singapore ‐ 18% on LR1

Singapore to Indonesia ‐ 6% on LR1

India to Singapore ‐ 26% on LR1

Middle East to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 18% on LR1

Europe to West Africa ‐ 20% on LR1

Europe to United States ‐ 10% on LR1

India to Europe ‐ 21% on LR1

United States to South & Central America ‐ 4% on LR1

Middle East to Japan ‐ 18% on LR1

Middle East to Korea ‐ 18% on LR1

Europe to Other Africa ‐ 20% on LR1

FSU to Europe ‐ 6% on LR1

India to United States ‐ 100% on LR1

Middle East to Europe ‐ 18% on LR1

Main LR1 Clean Trades in 2015 (m tonnes/month)

GASOIL GASOLINENAPHTHA JET/KERO

‐0.1 0.0 0.1

ChangeQ1 2015 YoY

‐0.5 0.0 0.5

Change2013 ‐ 2015



MR2 CPP Trade : Key Changes

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

China to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 65% clean on MR2

Europe to North Africa ‐ 24% clean on MR2

South & Central America to United States ‐ 74% clean onMR2

China to Singapore ‐ 65% clean on MR2

Middle East to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 50% clean on MR2

FSU to United States ‐ 73% clean on MR2

Japan to Australasia ‐ 100% clean on MR2

United States to Canada ‐ 74% clean on MR2

Other Asia Pacific to Indonesia ‐ 64% clean on MR2

Korea to China ‐ 75% clean on MR2

Europe to Middle East ‐ 80% clean on MR2

Korea to Japan ‐ 75% clean on MR2

Europe to West Africa ‐ 80% clean on MR2

Middle East to Japan ‐ 50% clean on MR2

FSU to Europe ‐ 12% clean on MR2

Europe to United States ‐ 37% clean on MR2

Singapore to Australasia ‐ 64% clean on MR2

Singapore to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 64% clean on MR2

Middle East to Korea ‐ 50% clean on MR2

Korea to Australasia ‐ 100% clean on MR2

Korea to Singapore ‐ 75% clean on MR2

Other Asia Pacific to Singapore ‐ 64% clean on MR2

Korea to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 75% clean on MR2

Europe to Europe ‐ 24% clean on MR2

Europe to Other Africa ‐ 80% clean on MR2

Singapore to Indonesia ‐ 65% clean on MR2

Middle East to Europe ‐ 50% clean on MR2

United States to Europe ‐ 74% clean on MR2

United States to Mexico ‐ 74% clean on MR2

Canada to United States ‐ 100% clean on MR2

United States to South & Central America ‐ 74% clean onMR2

Main MR2 Clean Trades in 2015 (m tonnes/month)

GASOIL GASOLINE

NAPHTHA JET/KERO

‐0.4 ‐0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

Change2013 ‐ 2015

‐1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

ChangeQ1 2015 YoY



Handy CPP Trade : Key Changes

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

South & Central America to Europe ‐ 26% clean on Handy

FSU to United States ‐ 14% clean on Handy

Korea to Singapore ‐ 8% clean on Handy

Middle East to Singapore ‐ 15% clean on Handy

Korea to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 8% clean on Handy

Other Asia Pacific to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 30% clean on Handy

FSU to Singapore ‐ 72% clean on Handy

Middle East to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 15% clean on Handy

United States to Canada ‐ 22% clean on Handy

South & Central America to United States ‐ 26% clean on Handy

Europe to Canada ‐ 51% clean on Handy

China to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 29% clean on Handy

China to Singapore ‐ 29% clean on Handy

Middle East to Japan ‐ 15% clean on Handy

Europe to Mexico ‐ 51% clean on Handy

Other Asia Pacific to Indonesia ‐ 30% clean on Handy

Middle East to Korea ‐ 15% clean on Handy

Europe to South & Central America ‐ 51% clean on Handy

Singapore to Australasia ‐ 30% clean on Handy

Singapore to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 30% clean on Handy

Other Asia Pacific to Singapore ‐ 30% clean on Handy

Middle East to Europe ‐ 15% clean on Handy

United States to Europe ‐ 22% clean on Handy

North Africa to Europe ‐ 70% clean on Handy

Singapore to Indonesia ‐ 25% clean on Handy

United States to Mexico ‐ 22% clean on Handy

Europe to United States ‐ 51% clean on Handy

Europe to North Africa ‐ 70% clean on Handy

United States to South & Central America ‐ 22% clean on Handy

Europe to Europe ‐ 70% clean on Handy

FSU to Europe ‐ 77% clean on Handy

Main Handy Clean Trades in 2015 (m tonnes/month)

GASOIL GASOLINE

NAPHTHA JET/KERO

‐0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

Change2013 ‐ 2015

‐3.0 ‐2.0 ‐1.0 0.0 1.0

ChangeQ1 2015 YoY



CPP Imports by Origin; CPP Exports by Destination



Origin of USA Gasoil Imports

Origin of USA Gasoil Exports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

US Gasoil Imports: Monthly

TransPac From East

Other West Russia

Canada

Source: IEA

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd ‐ ytd

US Gasoil Imports: Annual

TransPac From East

Other West Russia

Canada Total Imports

Total DWT required (RHS)

Mn tonnes / month Mn DWT

Source: IEA, Braemar ACM

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

US Gasoil Exports: Monthly

Other Other Caribbean Basin

Canada Brazil

Argentina W & S Africa

N Africa & Near East Non‐OECD Europe

Mexico Other Non‐OECD Americas

OECD Europe Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

US Gasoil Exports: Annual

Other Other Caribbean Basin

Canada Brazil

Argentina Singapore

W & S Africa N Africa & Near East

Non‐OECD Europe Mexico

Other Non‐OECD Americas OECD Europe

Total Exports Total DWT required (RHS)





Origin of USA Gasoline Imports

Destination of USA Gasoline Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd ‐ ytd

US Gasoline Imports: Annual

Other FSU

West Africa Canada

Peru Singapore

Saudi Arabia Brazil / Argentina

Far East India

Caribbean Basin Europe

Total Imports Total DWT required (RHS)

Mn DWTMn tonnes / month


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

US Gasoline Imports: Monthly

Other FSU

West Africa Canada

Peru Singapore

Saudi Arabia Brazil / Argentina

Far East India

Caribbean Basin EuropeSource: IEA

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd ‐ ytd

US Gasoline Exports: Annual

Other Caribbean Basin

Brazil Other Africa

Nigeria Argentina

Japan Canada

Europe Other Non‐OECD Americas

Mexico Total Exports




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

US Gasoline Exports: Monthly

Other Caribbean Basin

Brazil Other Africa

Nigeria Argentina

Japan Canada

Europe Other Non‐OECD Americas

Mexico Source: IEA



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Europe Naphtha Exports: Annual*

Other Mexico

South Africa Nigeria

Other Asia Brazil

Korea Singapore

Other Africa Japan

People's Republic of China Egypt

Canada United States

Chinese Taipei Total Seaborne Exports


* excluding intra‐European trade



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Europe Naphtha Exports: Monthly*

Other South Africa

Nigeria Other Asia

Brazil Korea

Singapore Other Africa

Japan People's Republic of China

Canada Egypt

Chinese Taipei United States

* excluding intra‐European trade

Source: IEA

Destination of US Naphtha Exports

Destination of Europe Naphtha Exports

Source: EIA Source: EIA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

US Naphtha Exports: Annual

Other Canada

Europe Latin America

Asia Pacific

'000 tonnes / month

Source: EIA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

May‐15

'000 tonnes

US Naphtha Exports: Monthly

Other Canada

Europe Latin America

Asia Pacific

Source: EIA

Note:

1) The huge spike in shipments in December 2013 largely reflects the EIA reclassifying data from the US Census Bureau that it previously counted as gasoline exports.

2) Pre‐2013 data shows total of ‘Special Naphthas’ and ‘Petrochemical Feedstock’. 2013 onwards uses ‘Unfinished Oils—Naphthas and Lighter’ following reclassifica on by the EIA.



Origin of European Jet Imports

Origin of European Gasoil Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Europe Jet Imports: Annual

Intra‐Europe Pipeline Other

Far East Intra‐S. Europe

Intra‐N. Europe India

Venezuela Singapore

North Africa USA

Middle East Total Imports




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Europe Jet Imports: Monthly


Far East Intra‐S. Europe

Intra‐N. Europe India

Venezuela Singapore

North Africa USA

Middle East

Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Europe Gasoil Imports: Annual

Intra‐Europe Other

FSU excl Russia Far East

Indonesia Singapore

USA Venezuela

N Europe Arg / Brazil

Middle East Canada

N Africa India

Russia Total Imports




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Europe Gasoil Imports: Monthly

Intra‐Europe Other

FSU excl Russia Far East

Indonesia Singapore

USA Venezuela

N Europe Arg / Brazil

Middle East Canada

N Africa India

RussiaSource: IEA



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Europe Gasoline Exports: Annual

Pipeline/Rail Exports Other Longer‐haul EastOther Longer‐haul West Other short‐haul seaborneEgypt BrazilSouth Africa NigeriaLibya Other Near/Middle EastSaudi Arabia LebanonIsrael United StatesMexico CanadaTotal Exports Total DWT required (RHS)



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Europe Gasoline Exports: Monthly

Pipeline/Rail Exports Other Longer‐haul East

Other Longer‐haul West Other short‐haul seaborne

Egypt Brazil

South Africa Nigeria

Libya Other Near/Middle East

Saudi Arabia Lebanon

Israel United States

Mexico CanadaSource: IEA

Destination of Europe Gasoline Exports

Destination of European Gasoil Exports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Europe Gasoil Exports: Annual

Other Lebanon

Other Near/Middle East Argentina

Other Africa Nigeria

Egypt Saudi Arabia

Brazil United States

Mexico Canada

Outside Europe Total Outside Europe Total DWT



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Europe Gasoil Exports: Monthly

Other Lebanon

Other Near/Middle East Argentina

Other Africa Nigeria

Egypt Saudi Arabia

Brazil United States

Mexico Canada

Source: IEA

Source: IEA



Origin of Japanese Naphtha Imports

Destination of Japanese Gasoil Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Japan Naphtha Imports: Monthly

Other Egypt

Peru Other Asia

Russia India

United States China

Australasia Europe

S.E. Asia Korea

Middle EastSource: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Japan Naphtha Imports: Annual

Other Other Asia

Russia India

United States China

Australasia Europe

S.E. Asia Korea





0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Japan Gasoil Exports: Annual

Other Hong Kong

Other S E Asia China

Europe India

Other Non‐OECD Americas N. America

Korea Australasia

Singapore Total Exports




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Japan Gasoil Exports: Monthly

Other Hong Kong

Other S E Asia China

Europe India

Other Non‐OECD Americas N. America

Korea Australasia

Singapore

Source: IEA



Origin of Japanese Gasoline Imports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

'000 tonnes

Japan Gasoline Imports: Monthly

Other Singapore

Malaysia Korea

Source: IEA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Japan Gasoline Imports: Annual

Other Singapore

Malaysia Korea


'000 tonnes / month '000 DWT




Origin of Korean Naphtha Imports

Destination of Korean Gasoil Exports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Korea Gasoil Exports: Annual

FSU Brazil

United States China

Europe Other

Australasia S.E. Asia

Japan Total Exports




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Korea Gasoil Exports: Monthly

FSU Brazil

United States China

Europe Other

Australasia S.E. Asia

Japan

Source: IEA

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Korea Naphtha Imports: Annual

Other Australia

Europe Egypt

Other Asia India

China Russia

United States Mexico

Middle East South East Asia




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Korea Naphtha Imports: Monthly

Other Australia

Europe Egypt

Other Asia India

China Russia

United States Mexico

Middle East South East Asia

Source: IEA



Destination of Korean Jet Exports

Destination of Korean Gasoline Exports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Korea Jet Exports: Annual

Others Hong Kong

Europe S E Asia

China Brazil

United States Japan




0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Korea Jet Exports: Monthly

Others Hong Kong

Europe S E Asia

China Brazil

United States Japan

Source: IEA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Korea Gasoline Exports: Annual

Others Mexico

United States Japan

Australasia China

S.E. Asia Total Exports




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

'000 tonnes

Korea Gasoline Exports: Monthly

Others Mexico

United States Japan

Australasia China

S.E. Asia

Source: IEA



Origin of Australian Gasoil Imports

Origin of Australian Gasoline Imports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Australia Gasoil Imports: Annual

Other Malaysia

India Saudi Arabia

Indonesia Other Asia

South Korea Japan

Singapore Total Imports




0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Australia Gasoil Imports: Monthly

Other Malaysia

India Saudi Arabia

Indonesia Other Asia

South Korea Japan

Singapore

Source: IEA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Australia Gasoline Imports: Annual

Other India

Saudi Arabia Indonesia

Other Asia Malaysia

South Korea Japan





0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

'000 tonnes

Australia Gasoline Imports: Monthly

Other India


Other Asia Malaysia

South Korea Japan

Singapore

Source: IEA



Origin of Australian Jet Imports

Origin of Singapore Naphtha Imports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

'000 tonnes

Australia Jet Imports: Monthly

Other India


Other Asia Malaysia

South Korea Japan

SingaporeSource: IEA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Australia Jet Imports: Annual

Other India


Other Asia Malaysia

South Korea Japan





0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Singapore Naphtha Imports: Annual

Other Egypt

Thailand India

Indonesia Malaysia



'000 DWT'000 tonnes / month

Source: GTIS, Braemar ACM

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

'000 tonnes

Singapore Naphtha Imports: Monthly

Other Egypt

Thailand India

Indonesia Malaysia

Middle EastSource: GTIS



Origin of Singapore Gasoil Imports

Origin of Singapore Gasoline Imports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Singapore Gasoil Imports: Annual

Other Russia

Japan Malaysia

Korea Thailand

Taiwan India





0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

Mn tonnes

Singapore Gasoil Imports: Monthly

Other Malaysia

Korea Thailand

Taiwan India

Middle East

Source: GTIS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Singapore Gasoline Imports: Annual

Other Japan

Malaysia Korea

Thailand Taiwan

India China




0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

Mn tonnes

Singapore Gasoline Imports: Monthly

Other Japan

Malaysia Korea

Thailand Taiwan

India China

Source: GTIS



Origin of Hong Kong Gasoil Imports

Origin of Hong Kong Jet Imports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Hong Kong Gasoil Imports: Annual

Other Thailand

Japan Taiwan

Singapore China

Korea Total Imports




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

'000 tonnes

Hong Kong Gasoil Imports: Monthly

Other Thailand

Japan Taiwan

Singapore China

Korea

Source: GTIS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Hong Kong Jet Imports: Annual

Other Middle East

Thailand Taiwan

Japan Korea

Singapore China




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

'000 tonnes

Hong Kong Jet Imports: Monthly

Other Middle East

Thailand Taiwan

Japan Korea

Singapore ChinaSource: GTIS



Origin of Chinese Naphtha Imports

Origin of Chinese Jet Imports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014‐ytd

China Naphtha Imports: Annual

Other United States

Thailand Norway

Papua New Guinea Malasia

Singapore Indonesia

Russia Netherlands

India Algeria

Saudi Arabia Egypt

Iran South Korea



Source: China customs data, Braemar ACM

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sep‐13

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

'000 tonnes

China Naphtha Imports: Monthly

Other United States

Thailand Norway


Singapore Indonesia

Russia Netherlands

India Algeria

Saudi Arabia Egypt

Iran South KoreaSource: China customs data

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

China Naphtha Imports: Annual

Other United States

Thailand Norway


Singapore Indonesia

Russia Netherlands

India Algeria

Saudi Arabia Egypt

Iran South Korea




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

May‐15

'000 tonnes

China Naphtha Imports: Monthly

Other United States

Thailand Norway


Singapore Indonesia

Russia Netherlands

India Algeria

Saudi Arabia Egypt

Iran South KoreaSource: China customs data

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

China Jet Imports: Annual

Other Malaysia

Thailand Taiwan

Japan Singapore

South Korea Total Imports




0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

May‐15

'000 tonnes

China Jet Imports: Monthly

Other Malaysia

Thailand Taiwan

Japan Singapore

South Korea

Source: China customs data



Destination of Chinese Gasoline Exports

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

China Gasoil Exports: Annual

Others Vietnam

South Korea Singapore

Panama Malaysia

Liberia Indonesia

India Hong Kong




0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

May‐15

'000 tonnes

China Gasoil Exports: Monthly

Others Vietnam

South Korea Singapore

Panama Malaysia

Liberia Indonesia

India Hong Kong


Destination of Chinese Gasoil Exports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

China Gasoline Exports: Annual

Other Vietnam

Singapore North Korea

Myanmar Malaysia

Macau Indonesia




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

May‐15

'000 tonnes

China Gasoline Exports: Monthly

Other Vietnam

Singapore North Korea

Myanmar Malaysia

Macau Indonesia




Origin of Mexican Gasoline Imports

Origin of Taiwanese Naphtha Imports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Mexican Gasoline Imports: Annual

Other Argentina

Europe United States

Middle East Netherlands Antilles




0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Mexican Gasoline Imports: Monthly

Netherlands Antilles Middle East

United States Europe

Other

Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Taiwan Naphtha Imports: Annual

Other North Africa

Europe Australia

United States India





0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

Mn tonnes

Taiwan Naphtha Imports: Monthly

Other North Africa

Europe Australia

United States India




Origin of Malaysia Gasoline Imports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Malaysia Gasoline Imports: Annual

Other Middle East

Korea Taiwan

China India





0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

'000 tonnes

Malaysia Gasoline Imports: Monthly

Other Middle East

Korea Taiwan

China India

SingaporeSource: GTIS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Malaysia Gasoil Imports: Annual

Other Taiwan

Singapore Korea

Japan India




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

'000 tonnes

Malaysia Gasoil Imports: Monthly

Other Taiwan

Singapore Korea

Japan India

Source: GTIS

Origin of Malaysia Gasoil Imports



Origin of Indonesia Gasoline Imports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Indonesia Gasoline Imports: Annual

Other Taiwan

Singapore Middle East

Malaysia Korea

India China




0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

'000 tonnes

Indonesia Gasoline Imports: Monthly

Other Taiwan


Malaysia Korea

India China

Source: GTIS

Origin of Indonesia Gasoil Imports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Indonesia Gasoil Imports: Annual

Other Taiwan

Singapore Russia

Malaysia Kuwait

Korea China




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

'000 tonnes

Indonesia Gasoil Imports: Monthly

Other Taiwan

Singapore Russia

Malaysia Kuwait

Korea China

Source: GTIS



Destination of Indonesian Palm Oil Exports

Destination of Malaysian Palm Oil Exports

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 ‐ ytd

Indonesia Palm Oil Exports: Annual

India China Malaysia

NW Europe Singapore Pakistan

Bangladesh Mediterranean FSU

Middle East Other

Mn tonnes / month Source: Trademap

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan‐13

Feb‐13

Mar‐13

Apr‐13

May‐13

Jun‐13

Jul‐13

Aug‐13

Sep‐13

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Indonesia Palm Oil Exports: Monthly

India China Malaysia

NW Europe Singapore Pakistan

Bangladesh Mediterranean FSU

Middle East Other

Mn tonnes Source: Trademap

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Malaysia Palm Oil Exports: Annual

China India NW Europe

Pakistan USA Middle East

Japan Singapore Mediterranean

SE Asia Other

Mn tonnes / month Source: Trademap

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Malaysia Palm Oil Exports: Monthly

China India NW Europe

Pakistan USA Middle East

Japan Singapore Mediterranean

SE Asia Other

Mn tonnes Source: Trademap



Destination of Argentinian Sunflower Oil Exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 ‐ ytd

Argentina Sunflower Oil Exports: Annual

Egypt South Africa

Netherlands Malaysia

United States India

Australia Other

'000 tonnes / month Source: Trademap

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Apr‐13

May‐13

Jun‐13

Jul‐13

Aug‐13

Sep‐13

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Argentina Sunflower Oil Exports: Monthly

Egypt South Africa

Netherlands Malaysia

United States India

Australia Other

'000 tonnes Source: Trademap

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Russia Sunflower Oil Exports: Annual

Turkey Egypt

Uzbekistan Kazakhstan

Italy Spain

Netherlands Iran

Kyrgyzstan Other


0

50

100

150

200

250

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Russia Sunflower Oil Exports: Monthly

Turkey Egypt

Uzbekistan Kazakhstan

Italy Spain

Netherlands Iran

Kyrgyzstan Other


Destination of Russian Sunflower Oil Exports



Destination of Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Exports

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Canada Rapeseed Oil Exports: Annual

USA China Korea Chile

Mexico Taiwan Hong Kong Japan

Netherlands Other


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Canada Rapeseed Oil Exports: Monthly

USA China Korea Chile

Mexico Taiwan Hong Kong Japan

Netherlands Other


Destination of Canadian Rapeseed Oil Exports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Ukraine Sunflower Oil Exports: Annual

India Egypt

Iran Turkey

Algeria Spain

France Netherlands

Other




Destination of Brazilian Soya Oil Exports

Destination of Argentinian Soya Oil Exports

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Brazil Soya Oil Exports: Annual

China India Algeria

Cuba Iran Bangladesh

Egypt Morocco Venezuela

Tunisia Other


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Brazil Soya Oil Exports: Monthly

China India Algeria

Cuba Iran Bangladesh

Egypt Morocco Venezuela

Tunisia Other


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 ‐ ytd

Argentina Soya Oil Exports: Annual

India China

Iran Peru

Venezuela Bangladesh

Korea Dominican Republic

Other


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Apr‐13

May‐13

Jun‐13

Jul‐13

Aug‐13

Sep‐13

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Argentina Soya Oil Exports: Monthly

India China

Iran Peru

Venezuela Bangladesh

Korea Dominican Republic

Other




Destination of USA Soya Exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

US Soya Oil Exports: Annual

Mexico China

Colombia Dominican Republic

Venezuela Germany

Korea Nicaragua

Canada Egypt

India Other


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

US Soya Oil Exports: Monthly

Mexico China

Colombia Dominican Republic

Venezuela Germany

Korea Nicaragua

Canada Egypt

India Other







Aug 2015



Dirty Tanker Demand

Demand Outlook by Country: Monthly / Annual 6

‘Dirty’ Imports by Country: Tonnes - b/d - DWT Required 7

Evolution of DPP Trades: East and West 8

Outlook for Crude / Fuel Imports by Country 10

Crude Imports by Country: Tonnes - b/d - DWT Required 13

Fuel Oil imports by Country: Tonnes - b/d - DWT Required 13

Crude & FO: Tonnes vs. DWT - Impact of Slow Steaming 14

Crude, NGL & Biofuels Production Outlook 15

Crude / Fuel Oil Imports Outlook by Country 16

Dirty Tanker Supply vs. Demand Outlook: Monthly 18



VLCC 23

Suezmax 24

Aframax / LR2 (Dirty) 25

Panamax / LR1 (Dirty) 26

Crude & FO Exports by Destination & Imports by Origin

Crude Imports & Exports by Country 28

Fuel Oil Imports & Exports by Country 36

Dirty Tanker Demand by Vessel Type - Overview 4

Evolution of Dirty Trades by Vessel Type 5

Contents Page




Dirty Tanker Demand



Dirty Tanker Demand Overview



Evolution of dirty tanker trades

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

VLCC Monthly liftings

M East W Africa Caribbs Other

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Suezmax Monthly liftings

M East EC S Am W Africa

B Sea Caribbs WC N Am

Med NW Eur Other

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Afra+LR2 Monthly liftings

SE Asia Other Caribbs M East

USG B Sea Med Baltic

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pana+LR1 Monthly liftings

EC N Am USG EC S Am

WC S&C Am China WC N Am

Caribbs India Other



Dirty Tanker Demand Outlook

Our demand model represents between

80% and 95% (depending on the grade of

fuel) of total intra‐regional seaborne oil

flows by volume. We do not, however,

a empt to model demand that is gener‐

ated by trade flows within the borders of

a single country, or demand generated by

addi onal days on demurrage (including

un‐reported storage employment) or for

the purpose of lighterage. This model

assumes, therefore, that these ‘un‐

modelled’ elements of tanker demand

remain constant, and treats ‘modelled’

demand as 100% of all demand by apply‐

ing a mul ple. This mul ple will change

as the share of demand captured by our

model grows. It also assumes that de‐

mand cannot exceed the supply of tank‐

ers available to move it at ‘observed’

steaming speeds.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Apr‐14

Jul‐14

Oct‐14

Jan‐15

Apr‐15

Jul‐15

Oct‐15

Jan‐16

Australasia

Canada

China

E&S Africa

Europe

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Mexico

Middle East

Other Asia Pacific

Singapore

S&C America

United States

Monthly Dirty (Crude + DPP) Seaborne Imports by Region/Country

mt / month Forecast

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Australasia

Canada

China

E&S Africa

Europe

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Mexico

Middle East

Other Asia Pacific

Singapore

S&C America

United States

Dirty (Crude + DPP) Tanker Demand Outlook by Region/Country


Australasia 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4

Canada 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5

China 68.7 73.6 76.1 79.8 81.7 82.6

E&S Africa 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

Europe 44.1 42.7 41.7 41.8 41.4 40.8

India 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.6 28.8 30.0

Indonesia 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.9

Japan 27.5 25.7 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.1

Korea 24.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3

Mexico 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Middle East 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.5 1.5

Other Asia Pac 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.7 15.0

Singapore 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5

S&C America 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.1

United States 22.2 20.7 20.2 18.9 17.4 15.0



DIRTY IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Braemar ACM Forecasts in Red



Japan 14.98 14.59 13.80 16.20 14.69 14.95 14.25 14.87 11.68 12.56 11.75 13.39 14.69 11.99

Singapore 8.99 9.08 8.98 9.16 9.41 10.05 7.72 10.45 11.10 10.82 7.84 8.96 9.41 9.92

USA 37.44 33.88 32.12 31.66 31.63 32.14 29.01 33.74 29.05 28.59 27.11 31.91 31.63 28.25


Europe 51.24 49.07 48.80 45.96 51.56 50.73 49.29 54.66 51.29 53.72 47.91 51.17 51.56 50.97


Korea 10.91 10.67 10.87 10.65 11.66 12.02 11.26 11.72 10.55 11.59 10.86 11.42 11.66 11.00

Australia 2.07 1.86 1.81 1.94 1.59 1.59 1.65 1.53 1.68 1.54 1.93 1.63 1.59 1.72

China 24.67 25.37 27.14 26.73 28.22 29.27 27.12 28.25 31.64 24.62 27.02 28.06 28.22 27.76


India 15.28 16.09 15.72 16.06 16.19 15.86 16.34 16.36 15.46 16.19 18.96 15.79 16.19 16.87

Taiwan 3.60 3.54 3.58 3.82 3.19 2.39 3.60 3.57 3.04 2.24 3.58 3.70 3.19 2.95

Thailand 3.51 3.80 3.45 3.48 3.66 3.76 3.33 3.88 4.25 4.24 2.74 3.60 3.66 3.74

Indonesia 1.10 1.37 1.28 1.23 0.42 1.25 0.00 0.00 1.66 1.39 1.15 1.19 0.42 1.40

Brazil 1.42 1.72 1.66 1.46 1.15 0.33 1.83 1.29 1.56 1.00 1.58 1.61 1.15 1.38

Canada 3.01 2.76 2.41 2.49 2.35 2.65 2.20 2.19 1.96 2.35 2.25 2.31 2.35 2.19

NZ 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.39 0.48 0.53 0.30 0.61 0.38 0.48 0.37 0.44 0.48 0.41

Middle East¹ 0.06 0.23 0.34 0.14 0.21 0.19 0.13 0.30 0.28 0.30 0.59 0.51 0.21 0.39

Mexico 0.21 0.15 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.07

OthLatAm¹ 0.63 0.45 0.52 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.53 0.59 0.87 1.09 0.92 0.44 0.56 0.96

Hong Kong 0.61 0.62 0.52 0.65 0.84 0.75 0.53 1.23 0.40 0.81 0.62 0.58 0.84 0.61

South Africa 1.58 1.65 1.77 1.83 2.07 2.42 1.90 1.88 1.28 2.08 1.28 2.01 2.07 1.54

Chile 0.70 0.78 0.75 0.74 0.67 0.69 0.60 0.71 0.60 0.55 0.45 0.71 0.67 0.53

Malaysia 0.29 0.51 0.64 0.53 0.88 0.27 1.59 0.79 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.77 0.88 0.96

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01

Total Seaborne 165.10 160.41 157.68 157.61 161.30 161.79 154.48 167.63 160.00 157.87 151.62 160.53 161.30 156.50

Million b/d

Japan 3.60 3.51 3.32 3.89 3.53 3.59 3.43 3.57 2.80 3.02 2.83 3.22 3.53 2.88

Singapore 2.06 2.08 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.29 1.77 2.38 2.56 2.49 1.80 2.04 2.15 2.28

USA 8.99 8.14 7.72 7.61 7.60 7.72 6.97 8.11 6.98 6.87 6.51 7.67 7.60 6.79


Europe 12.25 11.72 11.65 10.97 12.31 12.11 11.77 13.05 12.23 12.82 11.44 12.22 12.31 12.16


Korea 2.62 2.56 2.61 2.55 2.80 2.88 2.70 2.81 2.53 2.78 2.61 2.74 2.80 2.64

Australia 0.50 0.45 0.44 0.47 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.37 0.40 0.37 0.46 0.39 0.38 0.41

China 5.90 6.07 6.51 6.40 6.77 7.03 6.50 6.78 7.60 5.91 6.48 6.73 6.77 6.66


India 3.68 3.88 3.79 3.87 3.90 3.82 3.94 3.94 3.73 3.90 4.57 3.81 3.90 4.07

Taiwan 0.87 0.85 0.86 0.92 0.77 0.58 0.87 0.86 0.73 0.54 0.86 0.89 0.77 0.71

Thailand 0.84 0.92 0.83 0.84 0.88 0.91 0.80 0.94 1.02 1.02 0.66 0.87 0.88 0.90

Indonesia 0.26 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.10 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.33 0.28 0.29 0.10 0.34

Brazil 0.34 0.42 0.40 0.35 0.28 0.08 0.44 0.31 0.38 0.24 0.38 0.39 0.28 0.33

Canada 0.72 0.66 0.58 0.60 0.56 0.64 0.53 0.53 0.47 0.56 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.52

NZ 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.07 0.15 0.09 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.10

Middle East¹ 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.13 0.11 0.05 0.09

Mexico 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.02

OthLatAm¹ 0.14 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.19 0.24 0.20 0.10 0.12 0.21

Hong Kong 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.17 0.12 0.27 0.09 0.18 0.14 0.13 0.18 0.13

South Africa 0.38 0.40 0.43 0.44 0.50 0.58 0.46 0.45 0.31 0.50 0.31 0.49 0.50 0.37

Chile 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.11 0.17 0.16 0.13

Malaysia 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.12 0.19 0.06 0.35 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.17 0.19 0.21

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total Seaborne 39.48 38.34 37.70 37.67 38.54 38.67 36.92 40.03 38.22 37.70 36.24 38.37 38.54 37.39


Japan 28.33 27.83 26.28 29.61 28.23 27.24 28.07 29.39 25.88 24.11 23.07 25.38 28.23 24.36

Singapore 13.61 13.94 13.42 13.94 14.19 15.27 12.54 14.76 16.71 15.78 11.50 13.13 14.19 14.66

USA 33.63 28.85 24.45 25.19 21.25 20.34 20.83 22.58 22.05 20.07 19.74 22.07 21.25 20.62

Europe 36.17 34.46 35.60 32.31 40.01 37.67 41.88 40.48 37.99 38.13 36.55 37.99 40.01 37.55

Korea 20.74 19.86 21.06 21.56 22.26 22.65 22.39 21.73 20.85 21.94 20.86 21.70 22.26 21.22

Australia 3.73 3.24 2.79 3.32 2.47 2.43 2.95 2.04 2.50 2.30 2.87 2.27 2.47 2.56

China 50.94 53.05 58.33 58.30 62.20 62.68 63.79 60.12 70.01 53.40 58.02 60.68 62.20 60.48

India 18.18 20.30 20.55 21.10 21.99 20.07 23.12 22.78 20.82 20.04 25.16 21.31 21.99 22.01

Taiwan 6.66 6.49 6.58 7.34 5.72 4.04 6.63 6.51 5.30 4.01 6.38 6.63 5.72 5.23

Thailand 4.85 5.33 4.84 5.16 4.87 4.67 4.72 5.21 5.20 5.66 3.65 4.73 4.87 4.84

Indonesia 1.88 2.35 2.45 2.43 0.61 1.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.08 0.61 0.00

Brazil 2.15 2.50 2.44 2.34 1.72 0.34 2.90 1.92 2.12 1.86 2.30 2.36 1.72 2.10

Canada 3.39 3.19 2.34 2.81 2.20 2.46 2.26 1.88 1.77 2.11 2.03 1.75 2.20 1.97

NZ 0.89 0.88 0.85 0.76 0.98 1.01 0.62 1.31 0.79 0.98 0.75 0.87 0.98 0.84

Middle East¹ 0.08 0.33 0.30 0.10 0.18 0.24 0.09 0.19 0.25 0.26 0.52 0.47 0.18 0.34

Mexico 0.17 0.12 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.06

OthLatAm¹ 0.44 0.35 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.39 0.43 0.44 0.62 0.77 0.66 0.30 0.42 0.68

Hong Kong 0.38 0.47 0.33 0.42 0.52 0.46 0.36 0.74 0.24 0.50 0.38 0.36 0.52 0.38

South Africa 2.00 2.11 2.26 2.34 2.40 2.76 2.25 2.19 1.58 2.57 1.57 2.57 2.40 1.91

Chile 0.68 0.92 1.02 1.02 0.85 0.77 0.81 0.96 0.80 0.74 0.61 1.01 0.85 0.72

Malaysia 0.14 0.40 0.39 0.41 0.60 0.13 1.25 0.43 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.40 0.60 0.59

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02







Key Dirty Importers

14 15 14 14 13 13 1410 10 11 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 7 6

1415 16 15 15 14 13

11 1213 11

10 11 13 13 13 13 13 12

911 12 13 13 14 12

1112 10

54

2

7

89 10 10 10

10

1111 11

10

1010 11 11 11 11 11 11

8

8

9 9 8 88

88 7

6

55 5 4 4 4 4

3

3

3

2 33 3

4

43 4

5

66 7 7 7 7 7

6

4

4

4 44 4 4

33 3

3

33 3 3 3 3 3

3

3

3

3 33 3 3

33

3

22 2 2 2 2 2

2

3

3

3 33 3 2

22

2

2

1

6

5

4 44 3

3

32

2

2

21 1 1 1 1

11

5

55 5

6 78

7 66

5

32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Key Crude Trades Discharging WestMillion DWT required per month @ 'Constant' Speed

Other

Europe to United States

Mexico to United States

North Africa to Europe

Europe to Europe

West Africa to Europe

S&CA to United States

FSU to Europe

WAF to United States

Middle East to Europe

ME to United States


27 28 28 29 28 27 27 24 24 23 22 22 21 20 19 19 19 19 19

4 6 8 8 10 11 12 13 15 18 18 20 22 23 22 22 22 22 22

1314 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 16 18 18 18 18 18 18

34

6 6 7 8 8 8 10 8 11 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19

68

9 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 8

8 8 9 9 9 9

3 4 4 46 7

8 8 911 13 14 15 16 16

3

33 3

3 34 4

4 55 5 5

55 5 5 5 5

3 35 4

4 4 55

6 67 7 7

5

45

55 5 4 4

4 45 5 5

55 5

5 5 5

23 2

5 6 67

7 78 8 8

13

12

13 1212 13 11 13

13 14

17 1516

1616 15

1515 16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Key Crude Trades Discharging EastMillion DWT required per month @ 'Constant' Speed

Other

S&CA to India

Middle East to Singapore

West Africa to India

Middle East to India

S&CA to China

ME to Other Asia Pacific

West Africa to China

Middle East to Korea

Middle East to China

Middle East to Japan




Key Dirty Importers

29.2 31.1 31.4 29.7 29.1 27.6 28.1 21.7 22.6 25.0 25.2 22.5 21.3 20.5 20.0 19.3 18.5 17.4 16.0

3.3 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.73.9 5.9 6.8 7.8 8.0 9.2 11.9 13.0 13.2 13.8 14.3 14.9

62.068.0 72.2 74.8 76.5 76.0 77.8

77.3 77.280.7 81.5 82.7 83.6 86.3 86.1 85.5 86.2 86.6 87.2

12.813.2

16.3 15.0 17.1 18.0 17.320.4

24.422.4

30.5 30.0 31.532.5 36.0 37.5 39.4 41.3 43.0

45.2

48.3

51.4 53.5 52.6 54.7 52.350.1

50.345.3

40.135.8 33.0

32.7 30.4 29.5 29.0 28.2 27.2+7%

+7% +1% +1%+1% ‐0%‐3%

+4% ‐0%+3%

‐3% ‐0%+3% +1% ‐0% +1% +0% +0%

0

50

100

150

200

2502002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Key Inter‐Regional Crude MovementsMillion DWT required per month at 'Constant' Speed

Intra‐West

West to East

Intra‐East

Trans‐Pacific

East to West

Braemar ACM ForecastMillion DWT required at 'Observed' Speed

2931 31

30 2928 28

22 2325 25

22 21 21 20 19 19 1716

13 1316 15

17 18 1720

2422

31 3032 33

3637

3941

43

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Crude East to West vs. West to EastMillion DWT required per month at 'Constant' Speed

East to West

West to East




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18



Seaborne Fuel Oil Imports by Country Other (JODI)

OthAsiaPac¹

Malaysia

Hong Kong

OthLatAm¹

Canada

Mexico

Middle East¹

China

Korea

Europe

USA

Singapore

Japan



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180



Seaborne Crude Imports by Country Other (JODI)

South Africa

Chile

NZ

Canada

Brazil

Indonesia

Thailand

Taiwan

India

China

Australia

Korea

Europe

USA

Singapore


Crude / DPP Imports



CRUDE OIL IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Braemar ACM Forecasts in Red



Japan 14.31 14.06 13.38 15.56 14.24 14.45 13.93 14.36 11.24 12.20 11.44 13.09 14.24 11.63

Singapore 3.89 3.62 3.64 3.85 3.56 3.57 3.17 3.94 5.44 5.00 3.42 3.10 3.56 4.62

USA 36.07 32.72 31.15 30.77 30.60 31.04 27.86 32.89 28.06 27.56 26.21 30.88 30.60 27.28


Europe 46.38 44.01 43.53 40.98 46.09 45.32 44.20 48.73 44.91 47.79 42.74 46.08 46.09 45.14


Korea 10.56 10.11 10.22 9.87 11.06 11.45 10.72 11.02 9.86 11.01 10.30 10.83 11.06 10.39

Australia 2.07 1.86 1.81 1.94 1.59 1.59 1.65 1.53 1.68 1.54 1.93 1.63 1.59 1.72

China 22.59 23.48 25.66 24.87 26.78 27.98 25.55 26.81 30.29 23.24 25.51 26.62 26.78 26.35


India 15.28 16.09 15.72 16.06 16.19 15.86 16.34 16.36 15.46 16.19 18.96 15.79 16.19 16.87

Taiwan 3.60 3.54 3.58 3.82 3.19 2.39 3.60 3.57 3.04 2.24 3.58 3.70 3.19 2.95

Thailand 3.51 3.80 3.45 3.48 3.66 3.76 3.33 3.88 4.25 4.24 2.74 3.60 3.66 3.74

Indonesia 1.10 1.37 1.28 1.23 0.42 1.25 0.00 0.00 1.66 1.39 1.15 1.19 0.42 1.40

Brazil 1.42 1.72 1.66 1.46 1.15 0.33 1.83 1.29 1.56 1.00 1.58 1.61 1.15 1.38

Canada 2.96 2.68 2.32 2.41 2.27 2.58 2.13 2.10 1.80 2.22 2.17 2.26 2.27 2.06

NZ 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.39 0.48 0.53 0.30 0.61 0.38 0.48 0.37 0.44 0.48 0.41

South Africa 1.58 1.65 1.77 1.83 2.07 2.42 1.90 1.88 1.28 2.08 1.28 2.01 2.07 1.54

Chile 0.70 0.78 0.75 0.74 0.67 0.69 0.60 0.71 0.60 0.55 0.45 0.71 0.67 0.53

Total Seaborne 150.48 145.49 143.20 142.78 145.53 146.42 139.92 150.24 143.92 141.41 137.19 145.60 145.53 140.84

Million b/d

Japan 3.45 3.39 3.23 3.75 3.43 3.48 3.36 3.46 2.71 2.94 2.76 3.16 3.43 2.80

Singapore 0.94 0.87 0.88 0.93 0.86 0.86 0.76 0.95 1.31 1.21 0.82 0.75 0.86 1.11

USA 8.69 7.88 7.51 7.42 7.37 7.48 6.71 7.93 6.76 6.64 6.32 7.44 7.37 6.57


Europe 11.18 10.60 10.49 9.88 11.11 10.92 10.65 11.74 10.82 11.52 10.30 11.10 11.11 10.88


Korea 2.55 2.44 2.46 2.38 2.67 2.76 2.58 2.66 2.38 2.65 2.48 2.61 2.67 2.50

Australia 0.50 0.45 0.44 0.47 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.37 0.40 0.37 0.46 0.39 0.38 0.41

China 5.44 5.66 6.18 5.99 6.45 6.74 6.16 6.46 7.30 5.60 6.15 6.42 6.45 6.35


India 3.68 3.88 3.79 3.87 3.90 3.82 3.94 3.94 3.73 3.90 4.57 3.81 3.90 4.07

Taiwan 0.87 0.85 0.86 0.92 0.77 0.58 0.87 0.86 0.73 0.54 0.86 0.89 0.77 0.71

Thailand 0.84 0.92 0.83 0.84 0.88 0.91 0.80 0.94 1.02 1.02 0.66 0.87 0.88 0.90

Indonesia 0.26 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.10 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.33 0.28 0.29 0.10 0.34

Brazil 0.34 0.42 0.40 0.35 0.28 0.08 0.44 0.31 0.38 0.24 0.38 0.39 0.28 0.33

Canada 0.71 0.65 0.56 0.58 0.55 0.62 0.51 0.51 0.43 0.54 0.52 0.54 0.55 0.50

NZ 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.07 0.15 0.09 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.10

South Africa 0.38 0.40 0.43 0.44 0.50 0.58 0.46 0.45 0.31 0.50 0.31 0.49 0.50 0.37

Chile 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.11 0.17 0.16 0.13

Total Seaborne 36.26 35.06 34.51 34.41 35.07 35.28 33.72 36.21 34.68 34.08 33.06 35.09 35.07 33.94

Million DWT Required ‐ excludes 1.275x multiple

Japan 27.63 27.25 25.86 28.98 27.83 26.80 27.74 28.94 25.45 23.76 22.78 25.10 27.83 24.00

Singapore 4.65 4.43 4.37 4.89 4.17 4.21 4.04 4.26 6.38 5.86 3.99 3.57 4.17 5.41

USA 32.45 27.68 23.57 24.41 20.46 19.65 20.01 21.72 21.18 19.17 18.96 21.26 20.46 19.77

Europe 34.52 32.77 33.47 30.46 37.99 35.56 39.82 38.61 35.42 35.78 34.50 35.78 37.99 35.23

Korea 20.44 19.23 20.02 20.34 21.63 22.03 21.82 21.04 19.85 21.11 20.07 20.71 21.63 20.34

Australia 3.73 3.24 2.79 3.32 2.47 2.43 2.95 2.04 2.50 2.30 2.87 2.27 2.47 2.56

China 47.23 49.73 55.79 54.73 59.15 59.92 60.24 57.27 67.04 50.39 55.20 58.17 59.15 57.55

India 18.18 20.30 20.55 21.10 21.99 20.07 23.12 22.78 20.82 20.04 25.16 21.31 21.99 22.01

Taiwan 6.66 6.49 6.58 7.34 5.72 4.04 6.63 6.51 5.30 4.01 6.38 6.63 5.72 5.23

Thailand 4.85 5.33 4.84 5.16 4.87 4.67 4.72 5.21 5.20 5.66 3.65 4.73 4.87 4.84

Indonesia 1.88 2.35 2.45 2.43 0.61 1.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.08 0.61 0.00

Brazil 2.15 2.50 2.44 2.34 1.72 0.34 2.90 1.92 2.12 1.86 2.30 2.36 1.72 2.10

Canada 3.36 3.15 2.30 2.76 2.16 2.42 2.23 1.84 1.69 2.05 1.99 1.73 2.16 1.91

NZ 0.89 0.88 0.85 0.76 0.98 1.01 0.62 1.31 0.79 0.98 0.75 0.87 0.98 0.84

South Africa 2.00 2.11 2.26 2.34 2.40 2.76 2.25 2.19 1.58 2.57 1.57 2.57 2.40 1.91

Chile 0.68 0.92 1.02 1.02 0.85 0.77 0.81 0.96 0.80 0.74 0.61 1.01 0.85 0.72





FUEL OIL IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Braemar ACM Forecasts in Red



Japan 0.67 0.53 0.41 0.64 0.45 0.50 0.33 0.52 0.44 0.35 0.30 0.29 0.45 0.37

Singapore 5.10 5.46 5.34 5.31 5.85 6.47 4.55 6.51 5.65 5.82 4.42 5.86 5.85 5.30

USA 1.37 1.16 0.97 0.88 1.03 1.10 1.14 0.84 0.99 1.04 0.90 1.03 1.03 0.97

Europe 4.85 5.06 5.27 4.98 5.47 5.41 5.09 5.93 6.38 5.93 5.18 5.09 5.47 5.83


Korea 0.34 0.55 0.65 0.78 0.60 0.57 0.54 0.69 0.69 0.58 0.56 0.59 0.60 0.61

China 2.08 1.89 1.47 1.86 1.44 1.29 1.57 1.44 1.36 1.38 1.51 1.43 1.44 1.42

Middle East¹ 0.06 0.23 0.34 0.14 0.21 0.19 0.13 0.30 0.28 0.30 0.59 0.51 0.21 0.39

Mexico 0.21 0.15 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.07

Canada 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.16 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.12

OthLatAm¹ 0.63 0.45 0.52 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.53 0.59 0.87 1.09 0.92 0.44 0.56 0.96

Hong Kong 0.61 0.62 0.52 0.65 0.84 0.75 0.53 1.23 0.40 0.81 0.62 0.58 0.84 0.61

Malaysia 0.29 0.51 0.64 0.53 0.88 0.27 1.59 0.79 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.77 0.88 0.96

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01

Total Seaborne 14.62 14.92 14.48 14.83 15.77 15.38 14.56 17.39 16.08 16.46 14.43 14.92 15.77 15.66

Million b/d

Japan 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.14 0.10 0.11 0.07 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.10 0.08

Singapore 1.12 1.20 1.18 1.17 1.29 1.43 1.00 1.43 1.24 1.28 0.97 1.29 1.29 1.17

USA 0.30 0.26 0.21 0.19 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.19 0.22 0.23 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.21

Europe 1.07 1.12 1.16 1.10 1.21 1.19 1.12 1.31 1.41 1.31 1.14 1.12 1.21 1.28


Korea 0.08 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13

China 0.46 0.42 0.32 0.41 0.32 0.28 0.35 0.32 0.30 0.30 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.31

Middle East¹ 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.13 0.11 0.05 0.09

Mexico 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.02

Canada 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03

OthLatAm¹ 0.14 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.19 0.24 0.20 0.10 0.12 0.21

Hong Kong 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.17 0.12 0.27 0.09 0.18 0.14 0.13 0.18 0.13

Malaysia 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.12 0.19 0.06 0.35 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.17 0.19 0.21

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total Seaborne 3.22 3.29 3.19 3.27 3.47 3.39 3.21 3.83 3.54 3.63 3.18 3.29 3.47 3.45

Million DWT Required ‐ excludes 1.275x multiple

Japan 0.70 0.58 0.42 0.63 0.41 0.44 0.32 0.45 0.44 0.35 0.29 0.28 0.41 0.36

Singapore 8.96 9.51 9.05 9.05 10.02 11.05 8.50 10.50 10.32 9.92 7.51 9.56 10.02 9.25

USA 1.18 1.17 0.87 0.78 0.79 0.69 0.82 0.86 0.87 0.90 0.78 0.81 0.79 0.85

Europe 1.65 1.69 2.13 1.85 2.02 2.11 2.06 1.87 2.56 2.35 2.05 2.21 2.02 2.32

Korea 0.30 0.63 1.04 1.22 0.63 0.62 0.57 0.69 1.00 0.83 0.80 0.99 0.63 0.88

China 3.71 3.32 2.54 3.56 3.05 2.76 3.55 2.85 2.97 3.01 2.81 2.51 3.05 2.93

Middle East¹ 0.08 0.33 0.30 0.10 0.18 0.24 0.09 0.19 0.25 0.26 0.52 0.47 0.18 0.34

Mexico 0.17 0.12 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.06

Canada 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.06

OthLatAm¹ 0.44 0.35 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.39 0.43 0.44 0.62 0.77 0.66 0.30 0.42 0.68

Hong Kong 0.38 0.47 0.33 0.42 0.52 0.46 0.36 0.74 0.24 0.50 0.38 0.36 0.52 0.38

Malaysia 0.14 0.40 0.39 0.41 0.60 0.13 1.25 0.43 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.40 0.60 0.59

OthAsiaPac¹ 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02







Crude Imports: tonnes vs. DWT

Fuel Oil Imports: tonnes vs. DWT

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Indionesia

N. Zealand

Canada

Brazil

Australia

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

S Korea

India

Japan

Europe

China

USA

Crude Imports(million Tonnes)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Indionesia

N. Zealand

Canada

Brazil

Australia

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

S Korea

India

Japan

Europe

China

USA

Million DWT Neededlikely actual slow‐steaming

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Indionesia

N. Zealand

Canada

Brazil

Australia

Singapore

Thailand

Taiwan

S Korea

India

Japan

Europe

China

USA

Million DWT NeededSteaming @ 14.5 kts

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Saudi A

Canada

Mexico

Oth.LatAm

S Korea

Japan

USA

Europe

China

Singapore

DPP Imports(million Tonnes)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Saudi A

Canada

Mexico

Oth.LatAm

S Korea

Japan

USA

Europe

China

Singapore

Million DWT Neededlikely actual slow‐steaming

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Saudi A

Canada

Mexico

Oth.LatAm

S Korea

Japan

USA

Europe

China

Singapore

Million DWT NeededSteaming @ 14.5 kts



DWT Demand & Slow Steaming

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

DWT required to moved the world's 'inter‐regional' seaborne oil trade(million tonnes / month)

total dwt needed DPP (at 14.5 kts)

total dwt needed CPP (at 14.5 kts)

total dwt needed Crude Oil (at 14.5 kts)

total dwt needed all products (slow steaming)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

DWT required to moved the world's 'inter‐regional' seaborne oil trade(million tonnes / month)

total dwt needed DPP (at 14.5 kts)

total dwt needed Crude Oil (at 14.5 kts)

total dwt needed all products (slow steaming)



Crude Oil & NGL Production Outlook

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

m b/d

Oil Production in North Africa(Key Net Exporters)

Algeria

Libya

Egypt

Forecast IEA

Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

m b/d

Oil Production in West Africa(Key Net Exporters)

Angola

Nigeria

Gabon

Forecast IEA

Source: IEA

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

m b/d

Oil Production in North America

USA

Canada

Mexico

Forecast IEA

Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

m b/d

Oil Production in South America (Key Net Exporters)

Ecuador

Venezuela

Colombia

Brazil

Argentina

Forecast IEA

Source: IEA

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

m b/d

Oil Production in AG / RSea(Key Net Exporters)

Saudi Arabia

Iran

Iraq

UAE

Kuwait

Neutral Zone

Qatar

Oman

Yemen

Forecast IEA

Source: IEA

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

m b/d

Russia

Norway

UK

Other OECDEurope

Forecast IEA

Oil Production in FSU & Europe

Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Jan‐16

m b/d

China

India

Malaysia

Indonesia

Forecast IEA

Oil Production in Asia

Source: IEA

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

m b/d

OPEC NGLs

ProcessingGains

GlobalBiofuels

Forecast IEA

'Other' Oil Production

Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

m b/d

Oil Production in South America (Key Net Exporters)

Ecuador

Venezuela

Colombia

Brazil

Argentina

Forecast IEA

Source: IEA

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

m b/d

OPEC NGLs

ProcessingGains

GlobalBiofuels

Forecast IEA

'Other' Oil Production

Source: IEA



Crude Oil Import Outlook

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016f

2018f

2020f

USA Crude Imports By Origin

Other

West Africa

S&C America

North Africa

Middle East

Mexico

FSU

Europe

Canada

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016f

2018f

2020f

OECD Europe

Other

West Africa

S&C America

North Africa

Middle East

Mexico

FSU

Europe

OECD Europe Crude Imports By Origin

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016f

2018f

2020f

Japan Crude Imports By Origin

Other

West Africa

S&C America

Other Asia Pacific

Middle East

FSU

8.3 8.5 8.2 8.8 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.5 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.2 5.3 4.6 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.4

1.4 1.4 1.5 1.62.0 2.0 2.3

2.52.6 2.9

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

m b/d USA Forecast

Crude Oil Production

Oil Demand

BiofuelsProduction

Crude Oil Imports

From Canada

From Rest of World

CPP Exports

CPP Imports

RefineryProcessing gains

NGL Production

DPP Imports

DPP ExportsLPG Exports

7.5 7.6 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.7 7.7 7.9 7.8 8.2 7.8 7.6 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5

1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.11.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

m b/d OECD Europe Forecast

Oil Production

Oil Demand

Crude Oil Imports

Crude Oil ExportsCPP Exports

CPP Imports

BiofuelProduction

DPP Imports

DPP Exports

Via Druzbha

4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.03.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9

‐1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

m b/dJapan Forecast

Oil Production

Oil Demand

Crude Oil Imports

CPP imports

CPP Exports

LPGDPP Imports

DPP Exports



Crude Oil Import Outlook

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016f

2018f

2020f

Korea Crude Imports By Origin

Other

West Africa

S&C America

Other Asia Pacific

North Africa

Middle East

FSU

Europe

Australasia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016f

2018f

2020f

India Crude Imports By Origin

Other

West Africa

S&C America

Other Asia Pacific

North Africa

Middle East

Mexico

Europe

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016f

2018f

2020f

China Crude Imports By Origin

S&C America

West Africa

Other

Other Asia Pacific

North Africa

Middle East

FSU

East & SAF

Australasia

2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

‐2.0

‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

m b/d Korea Forecast

CPP Imports

Oil Demand

Crude Oil Imports

CPP Exports

DPP Exports

DPP Imports

LPG

1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.53.0 3.1 3.2

3.7 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8

‐2.0

‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

m b/d India Forecast

Oil Production

Oil Demand

Crude Oil Imports

CPP Exports

CPP Imports

DPP Exports

LPG

SPR Crude

1.4 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.15.5 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7

0.2 0.30.3

0.3 0.30.3

0.4 0.50.5

0.5 0.70.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

m b/d China Forecast

Oil Production

Oil Demand

CPP

DPP

SPR Crude

Seaborne crude imports

LPG

Via Pipeline



Dirty Tanker Supply / Demand Outlook

‐50

0

50

100

150

200

250

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

$k/daymillion dwt

Crude tanker supply / demand balanceForecast as of August 2015

TD3 Earnings (RHS) Crude Tanker Supply

Dwt required @ 'Actual' speed (Crude + FO) Dwt required @ 14.5 kts (Crude + FO)

12kts laden12kts ballast

BRAEMAR ACM DEMAND FORECAST

14.5kts laden14.5kts ballast

no removal, no future orders


likely removal, likely future orders

likely removal, no future orders




Dirty Trade by Vessel Segment

NOTES ON SUPPLY BY SEGMENT

1) This analysis considers only the trading fleet.

Vessels are removed from our numbers at the

moment they go into long‐term lay up, or en‐

ter employment in restricted trades or in long‐

term floa ng storage IF we believe they will

never return to spot trading.

2) This takes a dynamic view of the spot fleet. We

take into account temporary removals from

spot trading either through dry docking, short‐

term floa ng storage, or short‐term lay up.

3) Our scenario for future supply growth does not

in this instance take into account future order‐

ing, which could cause each segment to grow

faster (from 2015/16 onwards) than we sug‐

gest here.

NOTES ON DEMAND BY SEGMENT

1) Demand by vessel segment neither intends to

represent a forecast of demand for each seg‐

ment, nor an accurate portrayal of each sec‐

tors historical supply / demand rela onship.

Instead it aims to demonstrate the extent to

which each vessel segment has gained busi‐

ness, and will need to gain business in future

from other segments of the tanker fleet.

2) Each bilateral trade that we track for each

grade of product is divided up between each

segment of the tanker fleet according our un‐

derstanding of the trading pa ers over the

past 4 Qtrs. This is done using a combina on

of fixture data and AIS movements. Historical

and future projec ons made here ignore the

compe on that takes place between sectors,

for instance MR2s poaching cargoes from

Handies, or Suezmaxes poaching cargoes from

Aframaxes.

3) This analysis therefore reflects the rela ve

pressure each segment will feel to move be‐

yond its recent market into those of other

segments.

‐

50

100

150

200

250

Q12000

Q12002

Q12004

Q12006

Q12008

Q12010

Q12012

Q12014

Q12016

Q12018

Q12020

Dirty‐Trading Tanker Supply

Panamax

Aframax

Suezmax

VLCC

mil. tonnes Forecast1

1Basis NB Slippage; No fresh NB Ordering; Scrapping based on recent removal age

‐

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Q12000

Q12002

Q12004

Q12006

Q12008

Q12010

Q12012

Q12014

Q12016

Q12018

Q12020

Dirty Trade Growth by Vessel Segment

Panamax

Aframax

Suezmax

VLCC

mil. tonnes (multiple of1) Forecast¹

1Historical & Forecast bilateral product trade is split up by vessel segment according to the share each segment makes up of each flow TODAY. No allowance is made for past / future inter‐segment poaching. A single multiple applied to each segment's allocation of total demand to compensate for any resulting under or overstatement of 'observed' utilisation (i.e. Rates)



VLCC Supply Vs. Demand

Notes on VLCC Demand

Slow steaming has had the greatest effect on

VLCC demand thanks to the longer distances

involved. A such we believe VLCC demand has

actually tracked supply be er than other sec‐

tors. Also the last few years have seen a sharp

increase in natural demand as more crude shi s

from the Atlan c Basin to Asia. As a result VLCCs

have had li le need to poach business from

smaller ships.

Notes on Suezmax Demand

Suezmaxes have seen natural demand stripped

away in recent years, par cularly flows from

West Africa to the US. So far European demand

for West African crude has kept Suezmaxes busy,

but see VLCC comment above. Suezmaxes have

had to fight hard for cargoes typically moved by

VLCCs and Aframaxes, both crude and fuel oil.

Suezmaxes have been much more ac ve in the

Caribbean and Middle East in the past year—a

trend we expect to con nue as VLCC supply dries

up in the Atlan c Basin (less cargo to take them

there laden).

Suezmax Supply Vs. Demand

‐

50

100

150

200

250

VLCC Supply vs Demand

Demand


Supply

mil. tonnesForecast

Multiplier = 1.2

‐

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Suezmax Supply vs Demand

Demand


Supply

mil. tonnesForecast

Multiplier = 1

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 Daysm tonnes / monthVLCC


Crude

FO


16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50 Daysm tonnes / monthSuezmax


Crude

FO




Aframax Supply Vs. Demand

Notes on Aframax Demand

Since 2003 Aframax supply has grown consid‐

erably faster than the trades that typically

favour this size of vessel. While Aframaxes

have been able to poach cargoes from the

shrinking Panamax fleet, they have themselves

fallen vic m to poaching from Suezmaxes. The

refinery closures that we are expec ng to wit‐

ness in Europe, Japan and Australia will have a

dispropor onate effect of Aframax demand.

Despite the slow growth in flows suited to

Aframax sized units, we do expect the fleet to

shrink faster than demand over coming years.

Aframaxes should also benefit dispropor onal‐

ly from a looming scarcity ‐ at mes of peak

Atlan c basin crude supply or collapsing Euro‐

pean demand ‐ of VLCCs and Suezmaxes in the

Atlan c.

‐

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Aframax Supply vs Demand

Demand


Supply

mil. tonnesForecast

Multiplier = 1.3

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 Daysm tonnes / monthLR2 / Aframax


Crude

FO




VLCC Trades: Key Changes

0 5 10 15

Europe to United States ‐ 19% on VLCCs

Mexico to Japan ‐ 100% on VLCCs

FSU to United States ‐ 16% on VLCCs

West Africa to East & Southern Africa ‐ 5% on VLCCs

West Africa to United States ‐ 16% on VLCCs

Other Africa to Japan ‐ 99% on VLCCs

East & Southern Africa to India ‐ 84% on VLCCs

Mexico to China ‐ 89% on VLCCs

Singapore to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 10% on VLCCs

FSU to Singapore ‐ 9% on VLCCs

North Africa to China ‐ 34% on VLCCs

South & Central America to Singapore ‐ 13% on VLCCs

West Africa to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 33% on VLCCs

West Africa to Japan ‐ 99% on VLCCs

South & Central America to Japan ‐ 63% on VLCCs

West Africa to South & Central America ‐ 18% on VLCCs

West Africa to Indonesia ‐ 55% on VLCCs

Middle East to South & Central America ‐ 65% on VLCCs

Middle East to Canada ‐ 79% on VLCCs

Mexico to Singapore ‐ 100% on VLCCs

United States to Singapore ‐ 74% on VLCCs

Mexico to India ‐ 99% on VLCCs

Middle East to Indonesia ‐ 91% on VLCCs

Europe to Singapore ‐ 64% on VLCCs

East & Southern Africa to China ‐ 76% on VLCCs

West Africa to Europe ‐ 10% on VLCCs

Middle East to East & Southern Africa ‐ 90% on VLCCs

Middle East to Singapore ‐ 38% on VLCCs

West Africa to India ‐ 84% on VLCCs

Middle East to Europe ‐ 30% on VLCCs

South & Central America to India ‐ 100% on VLCCs

South & Central America to China ‐ 92% on VLCCs

Middle East to United States ‐ 78% on VLCCs

West Africa to China ‐ 95% on VLCCs

Middle East to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 93% on VLCCs

Middle East to India ‐ 58% on VLCCs

Middle East to Korea ‐ 98% on VLCCs

Middle East to Japan ‐ 98% on VLCCs

Middle East to China ‐ 98% on VLCCs

Main VLCC Dirty Trades in 2015 (m tonnes/month)

CRUDE FO

‐2 0 2

Change 2013‐2015

‐4.0 ‐2.0 0.0 2.0

ChangeQ1 2015 YoY



Suezmax Trades: Key Changes

0 2 4 6 8

Middle East to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 2% on Suezmaxes

North Africa to Canada ‐ 100% on Suezmaxes

Middle East to Australasia ‐ 29% on Suezmaxes

FSU to Korea ‐ 26% on Suezmaxes

United States to South & Central America ‐ 20% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to Indonesia ‐ 45% on Suezmaxes

FSU to United States ‐ 60% on Suezmaxes

South & Central America to South & Central America ‐ 30% on…

East & Southern Africa to China ‐ 24% on Suezmaxes

United States to Canada ‐ 13% on Suezmaxes

Middle East to Korea ‐ 2% on Suezmaxes

North Africa to China ‐ 65% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to Canada ‐ 95% on Suezmaxes

North Africa to India ‐ 83% on Suezmaxes

Middle East to Japan ‐ 2% on Suezmaxes

Canada to Europe ‐ 100% on Suezmaxes

Europe to Singapore ‐ 30% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to Australasia ‐ 100% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to China ‐ 5% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 65% on Suezmaxes

Middle East to China ‐ 2% on Suezmaxes

South & Central America to China ‐ 8% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to United States ‐ 82% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to India ‐ 13% on Suezmaxes

Canada to United States ‐ 29% on Suezmaxes

FSU to China ‐ 28% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to South & Central America ‐ 82% on Suezmaxes

South & Central America to Europe ‐ 52% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to East & Southern Africa ‐ 92% on Suezmaxes

Mexico to United States ‐ 28% on Suezmaxes

North Africa to Europe ‐ 22% on Suezmaxes

Middle East to United States ‐ 17% on Suezmaxes

Mexico to Europe ‐ 100% on Suezmaxes

Middle East to Singapore ‐ 30% on Suezmaxes

Middle East to India ‐ 19% on Suezmaxes

FSU to Europe ‐ 16% on Suezmaxes

South & Central America to United States ‐ 57% on Suezmaxes

Middle East to Europe ‐ 50% on Suezmaxes

West Africa to Europe ‐ 90% on Suezmaxes

Main Suezmax Dirty Trades in 2015 (m tonnes/month)

CRUDE FO

‐2 ‐1 0 1 2

Change 2013‐2015

‐1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0

ChangeQ1 2015 YoY



Aframax Dirty Trades: Key Changes

0 5 10 15

Australasia to Singapore ‐ 82% on Aframax / LR2

Indonesia to Singapore ‐ 66% on Aframax / LR2

FSU to Indonesia ‐ 73% on Aframax / LR2

Other Asia Pacific to Korea ‐ 68% on Aframax / LR2

Indonesia to Australasia ‐ 97% on Aframax / LR2

Indonesia to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 68% on Aframax / LR2

Australasia to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 92% on Aframax / LR2

Europe to Middle East ‐ 40% on Aframax / LR2

Other Asia Pacific to Japan ‐ 65% on Aframax / LR2

Australasia to China ‐ 98% on Aframax / LR2

Australasia to Korea ‐ 100% on Aframax / LR2

South & Central America to Singapore ‐ 29% on Aframax / LR2

Singapore to China ‐ 94% on Aframax / LR2

South & Central America to South & Central America ‐ 54% on…

Singapore to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 31% on Aframax / LR2

Middle East to United States ‐ 5% on Aframax / LR2

Other Asia Pacific to India ‐ 90% on Aframax / LR2

Middle East to Australasia ‐ 71% on Aframax / LR2

Indonesia to Japan ‐ 89% on Aframax / LR2

Other Asia Pacific to China ‐ 85% on Aframax / LR2

United States to South & Central America ‐ 50% on Aframax / LR2

FSU to Korea ‐ 70% on Aframax / LR2

FSU to Singapore ‐ 37% on Aframax / LR2

FSU to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 99% on Aframax / LR2

Other Asia Pacific to Singapore ‐ 46% on Aframax / LR2

South & Central America to Europe ‐ 43% on Aframax / LR2

Canada to United States ‐ 49% on Aframax / LR2

Other Asia Pacific to Australasia ‐ 100% on Aframax / LR2

United States to Canada ‐ 58% on Aframax / LR2

Middle East to Singapore ‐ 22% on Aframax / LR2

FSU to China ‐ 68% on Aframax / LR2

FSU to Japan ‐ 100% on Aframax / LR2

Middle East to Europe ‐ 20% on Aframax / LR2

Mexico to United States ‐ 51% on Aframax / LR2

Middle East to India ‐ 22% on Aframax / LR2

South & Central America to United States ‐ 42% on Aframax / LR2

North Africa to Europe ‐ 78% on Aframax / LR2

Europe to Europe ‐ 91% on Aframax / LR2

FSU to Europe ‐ 78% on Aframax / LR2

Main Aframax / LR2 Dirty Trades in 2015 (m tonnes/month)

CRUDE FO

‐0.6 ‐0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6

Change 2013‐2015

‐0.8 ‐0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8

ChangeQ1 2015 YoY



Panamax Dirty Trades: Key Changes

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

FSU to Korea ‐ 70% on Panamax / LR1

China to Korea ‐ 30% on Panamax / LR1

Australasia to Singapore ‐ 82% on Panamax / LR1

Japan to China ‐ 41% on Panamax / LR1

Other Asia Pacific to India ‐ 90% on Panamax / LR1

Indonesia to Japan ‐ 89% on Panamax / LR1

United States to Middle East ‐ 30% on Panamax / LR1

Korea to Japan ‐ 30% on Panamax / LR1

Japan to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 30% on Panamax / LR1

United States to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 28% on Panamax / LR1

Japan to Korea ‐ 30% on Panamax / LR1

Indonesia to Singapore ‐ 66% on Panamax / LR1

South & Central America to United States ‐ 42% on Panamax / LR1

Korea to China ‐ 30% on Panamax / LR1

Europe to Korea ‐ 52% on Panamax / LR1

Indonesia to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 68% on Panamax / LR1

Other Asia Pacific to Korea ‐ 68% on Panamax / LR1

Singapore to Korea ‐ 30% on Panamax / LR1

South & Central America to South & Central America ‐ 54% on Panamax / LR1

Europe to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 30% on Panamax / LR1

South & Central America to Europe ‐ 43% on Panamax / LR1

Middle East to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 3% on Panamax / LR1

FSU to China ‐ 68% on Panamax / LR1

South & Central America to Korea ‐ 22% on Panamax / LR1

India to Singapore ‐ 30% on Panamax / LR1

Middle East to India ‐ 22% on Panamax / LR1

FSU to Europe ‐ 78% on Panamax / LR1

Europe to Middle East ‐ 40% on Panamax / LR1

United States to South & Central America ‐ 50% on Panamax / LR1

Canada to United States ‐ 49% on Panamax / LR1

Other Asia Pacific to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 34% on Panamax / LR1

Middle East to Singapore ‐ 22% on Panamax / LR1

Europe to Europe ‐ 91% on Panamax / LR1

South & Central America to Singapore ‐ 29% on Panamax / LR1

Mexico to United States ‐ 51% on Panamax / LR1

Singapore to Other Asia Pacific ‐ 31% on Panamax / LR1

FSU to Singapore ‐ 37% on Panamax / LR1

United States to Canada ‐ 58% on Panamax / LR1

Other Asia Pacific to Singapore ‐ 46% on Panamax / LR1

Main Panamax / LR1 Dirty Trades in 2015 (m tonnes/month)

CRUDE FO

‐0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

Change 2013‐2015

‐0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

ChangeQ1 2015 YoY



Imports by Origin;

Exports by Destination



Origin of USA Crude Imports

Origin of Europe Crude Imports

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

48

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

USA Crude Imports: Annual

Other Canada

Mexico Other South America

Venezuela Colombia

Europe West Africa




Source: IEA, Breamar ACM

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

USA Crude Imports: Monthly

Other

Canada

Mexico

Other South America

Venezuela

Colombia

Europe

West Africa

Middle East Source: IEA

0

7

14

21

28

35

42

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Europe Crude Imports: Annual

Other Intra‐Europe Seaborne

North Sea Latin America

North Africa West Africa

Druzbha Pipeline FSU Seaborne


Total DWT Required (RHS)



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Europe Crude Imports: Monthly

Other Intra‐Europe Seaborne

North Sea Latin America


Druzbha Pipeline FSU Seaborne




Origin of Japan Crude Imports

Origin of Korea Crude Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Japan Crude Imports: Annual

Other SE Asia

Russia West Africa



Mn tonnes / month


Mn DWT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Japan Crude Imports: Monthly

Other SE Asia

Russia West Africa

Middle East

Source: IEA

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Korea Crude Imports: Annual

Other Australia

SE Asia Russia

North Sea West Africa



Mn tonnes / month


Mn DWT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Korea Crude Imports: Monthly

Other Australia

SE Asia Russia

North Sea West Africa




Origin of Canada Crude Imports

Origin of India Crude Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Canada Crude Imports: Monthly

Other USA


North Sea Middle East

Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Canada Crude Imports: Annual

Other USA


North Sea Middle East




0

5

10

15

20

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

India Crude Imports: Annual

Other SE Asia

Other Latin America Venezuela




Mn tonnes / month


Mn DWT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

India Crude Imports: Monthly

Other SE Asia

Other Latin America Venezuela





Origin of China Crude Imports

Origin of Brazil Crude Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Brazil Crude Imports: Annual

Other Australia

Latin America North Africa

Other West Africa Nigeria





0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

May‐15

Mn tonnes

Brazil Crude Imports: Monthly

Other Australia

Latin America North Africa

Other West Africa Nigeria


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

China Crude Imports: Annual

Other Kazakhstan

Russia East Africa

West Africa North Africa

Latin America Other Middle East

Iran Total Imports


Mn tonnes / month


Mn DWT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

China Crude Imports: Monthly

Other Kazakhstan

Russia East Africa


Latin America Other Middle East

IranSource: GTIS



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Indonesia Crude Imports: Annual

Other FSU

SE Asia North Africa

West Africa Middle East




0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Mn tonnes

Indonesia Crude Imports: Monthly

Other FSU



Source: GTIS

Origin of Indonesia Crude Imports

Origin of Taiwan Crude Imports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Taiwan Crude Imports: Annual

Other Australia

FSU West Africa




Source: GTIS, Braemar

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

Mn tonnes

Taiwan Crude Imports: Monthly

Other FSU


Source: GTIS



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Singapore Crude Imports: Annual

Other Australia

Russia SE Asia





0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

Mn tonnes

Singapore Crude Imports: Monthly

Other Australia

Russia SE Asia


Source: GTIS

Origin of Singapore Crude Imports

Origin of Thailand Crude Imports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Thailand Crude Imports: Annual

Other North Africa

West Africa Russia

SE Asia Middle East




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

Mn tonnes

Thailand Crude Imports: Monthly

Other North Africa

West Africa Russia

SE Asia Middle East

Source: GTIS



Origin of South Africa Crude Imports

Origin of New Zealand Crude Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

South Africa Crude Imports: Annual

Other Other West Africa

Nigeria Angola





0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

Mn tonnes

South Africa Crude Imports: Monthly

Other Other West Africa

Nigeria Angola

Middle East

Source: GTIS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

hd

New Zealand Crude Imports: Annual

Other Australia

SE Asia West Africa





0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

New Zealand Crude Imports: Monthly

Other Australia

SE Asia West Africa

Middle East

Source: IEA



Origin of Australia Crude Imports

Destination of Europe Crude Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Australia Crude Imports: Monthly

Other New Zealand



Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Australia Crude Imports: Annual

Other New Zealand






0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Europe Crude Exports: Annual

Other Other Asia

China Korea

South Africa South America

Canada USA




0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Europe Crude Exports: Monthly

Other Other Asia

China Korea

South Africa South America

Canada USASource: IEA



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

US Fuel Oil Imports: Annual

Other Russia

Carribs Canada

Brazil Other Africa


Mexico Europe




0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Mn tonnes

US Fuel Oil Imports: Monthly

Other Russia

Canada Brazil

Other Africa West Africa

North Africa Mexico

Europe

Source: IEA

Origin of USA Fuel Oil Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

US Fuel Oil Exports: Annual

Other Africa

Europe Canada

Mexico Singapore

Latin America Total Exports




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Oct‐13

Nov‐13

Dec‐13

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Mn tonnes

US Fuel Oil Exports: Monthly

Other Africa

Europe Canada

Mexico Singapore

Latin America

Source: IEA

Destination of USA Fuel Oil Exports



Origin of Europe Fuel Oil Imports

Destination of Europe Fuel Oil Exports

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Europe Fuel Oil Exports: Annual


North Europe Africa

Middle East United States




Source: IEA, ACM

Mn DWT

Source: IEA, ACM

Mn DWT

Source: IEA, ACM

Mn DWT


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Europe Fuel Oil Exports: Monthly


North Europe Africa

Middle East United States

Singapore

Source: IEA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Europe Fuel Oil Imports: Annual

Intra‐Europe Pipleine Other

North Europe United States

South America Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

Baltic States Russian Federation




0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Europe Fuel Oil Imports: Monthly

Intra‐Europe Pipleine Other

North Europe United States

South America Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

Baltic States Russian Federation

Source: IEA



Origin of Japan Fuel Oil Imports

Origin of Korea Fuel Oil Imports

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Japanese Fuel Oil Imports: Annual

Other United States

Russian Federation Other Asia

Singapore Korea

Malaysia Indonesia




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Japanese Fuel Oil Imports: Monthly

Indonesia Malaysia

Korea Singapore

Other Asia Russian Federation

United States Other

Source: IEA

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Korean Fuel Oil Imports: Annual

Others Singapore

Malaysia Indonesia

Russian Federation United States

Netherlands Japan




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Mn tonnes

Korean Fuel Oil Imports: Monthly

Others Singapore

Malaysia Indonesia

Russian Federation United States

Netherlands JapanSource: IEA



Origin of Singapore Fuel Oil Imports

Origin of China Fuel Oil Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

China Fuel Oil Imports: Annual

Other Middle East

Europe Singapore

Indonesia Malaysia

Japan Korea

Russia Venezuela




0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

May‐15

Mn tonnes

China Fuel Oil Imports: Monthly

Other Middle East

Europe Singapore

Indonesia Malaysia

Japan Korea

Russia Venezuela


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Singapore Fuel Oil Imports: Annual

Other Indonesia

Malaysia India

Russia United States

Other Caribbean Venezuela

Middle East Europe




0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

Mn tonnes

Singapore Fuel Oil Imports: Monthly

Other India

Russia United States

Other Caribbean Venezuela

Middle East EuropeSource: GTIS



Origin of Hong Kong Fuel Oil Imports

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Hong Kong Fuel Oil Imports: Annual

Other Morocco

Indonesia Japan

Korea Malaysia

China Singapore




0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

Mn tonnes

Hong Kong Fuel Oil Imports: Monthly

Morocco Indonesia

Japan Korea

Malaysia China

Singapore

Source: GTIS

Origin of Malaysia Fuel Oil Imports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 ‐ ytd

Malaysia Fuel Oil Imports: Annual

Other USA


Netherlands Other SE Asia

India Australia




0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐14

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

'000 tonnes

Malaysia Fuel Oil Imports: Monthly

Other USA


Netherlands Other SE Asia

India Australia

Source: GTIS



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example psychology, market cycles and external events (such

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