Tanaka CEM Final
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Transcript of Tanaka CEM Final
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8/8/2019 Tanaka CEM Final
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c ev ng
c ean
energy
econom es
throughacceleratedinternationalaction
NobuoTanaka
ExecutiveDirector
CleanEnergy
Ministerial
WashingtonDC
OECD/IEA2010
19July2010
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World
total
primary
energy
supply14000
16000
Mtoe
10000
12000
Other renewables
4000
6000
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
0
2000
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
Coal
OE
Non-OE
OE
Non-OE
OE
Non-OE
OE
Non-OE
2007 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
OECD/IEA2010
MajorEconomiesareprojectedtoaccountfor70%ofgrowthin
energydemand
and
CO2
emissions
between
now
and
2030
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Primaryenergydemandbyfuelandbyscenario
8 000
5000
6000
7000
M
toe 2007 Baseline2050 BLUEMap2050
27%
2000
3000
400036%
0
B 2050 coal oil and as demand are all lower than
OECD/IEA2010
todayundertheBLUEMapscenario.
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Impact
of
fossil
fuel
subsidy
phase
out,
2011
2020
Global fossilfuelsavings GlobalenergyrelatedCO2 emissions
300
350
400
Mto
e
34
36
38Gt
150
200
250
28
30
32
0
50
100
22
24
26
Coal Oil GasNo subsidy removal
Subsidy removal 2011-2020
OECD/IEA2010
ompare w t a ase neo noremova ,g o a p aseouto oss ue
consumptionsubsidiescouldreduceenergydemandby5.8%(6.5mb/d
oilsavings)andenergyrelatedCO2 emissionsby2.4Gtin2020.
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Transformingmarketsforclean
Manysuccessfulnationalcasestudiesforclean
energymar ettrans ormat on
CFLs,energyefficientmotors,solarPV,fuel
Morecanbeachievedthroughinternational
HarmonisedtestprotocolsandstandardsforEE
products
CommonEE
incentives
for
appliance
manufacturers
SimilarsolarPVincentivesprogrammes
OECD/IEA2010
Coor nate e ectr cve c ep ote orts
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Globalcooperationcantransformenduse
electricale ui ment
markets
Actionneededtoacceleratemarkettransformationon:
1. Refrigeratorandfreezers
2. Domesticlighting
3. Televisions
4. Airconditioners
.
6. Networkstandbypower
OECD/IEA2010
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Evolutionoflightdutyvehiclesalesby
technology
Baselinescenario BLUEMapscenario
140
160
180
200
illionsales/
yr
160
180
200
Hydrogenfuelcell
Hydrogenhybrid
80
100
120m
80
100
120 CNGandLPG
Pluginhybriddiesel
Plugin
hybrid
gasoline
0
20
40
20
40
60 y r ese
Hybridgasoline
Diesel
Gasoline
OECD/IEA2010
,
plugin hybrid, allelectric and fuelcell vehicles, dominate
sales after 2030.
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DecarbonisingthePowersector: CCSisonepartofstoryalongsidenuclearandrenewables
12,000
OECDPACIFIC
USA
2050
3,400 projects
OECD(35%)
8,000
10,000
r)
OTHEROECDNAM
OECDEUROPE
ODA
ME
INDIA
NonOECD(65%)
2040
2,100projects
OECD(40%)
NonOECD(60%)
6,000
ured
CO2
(MtCO2
/EEU+FSU
CSA
CHINA
AFR
2030
850projects
OECD
(49%)NonOECD(51%)
2,000
,
Capt
2020
100 projects
OECD(50%)
NonOECD(50%)
2015
18 projects
OECD(72%)
NonOECD(28%)
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
OECD/IEA2010
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PubliccleanenergyRD&D:
OECD/IEA2010
Stimulus
packages
are
a
one
time
funding
increase;
howtoachievesustainedhigherlevelsofinvestment?
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IncentivisingInvestment
Publicspendingisoneprovenwaytoaccelerateeconomic
growthandenergytechnologyinnovation
Need
to
leverage
new
private
investment
by
providing
longterm,stablestandardsandincentives
oreo ese ypeso s ra eg capproac esarenee e :
IndiasNationalCleanEnergyFundforresearchandinnovation,
financedby
alevy
on
coal
KoreasGreenNewDealstrategy,whichfunds17newgrowth
enginesandsupportsRD&D
TheUSAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency Energy,helpshigh
risk,high
return
technologies
bridge
the
valley
of
death
TheUKsGreenInvestmentBankwith$3Bininitialfundsforlarge
scalecleanenergydemonstrationprojects
OECD/IEA2010
Chinas 2009investmentinelectricitygriddevelopmentin2009
wasits
highest
ever,
and
plans
to
invest
$44B
in
advanced
vehicles
toverthenext5years
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Thefirstgreenshoots
much
more
needs
to
be
done
46GWofPV Over1billionplugin IncreasefundingbyOver3000plants Lightingmarket
dominatedby
until2050
in2050
currentlevels
2050 LEDsin2050
Plansfor5million
hybridand
electricvehicles
by2020
6GWofPV
installedin2009
1/3funding
increase
between
2005and2008
80largescale
integratedplants
beingdeveloped
Globalsalesof
CFLs @3500
million/yr
OECD/IEA2010
Renewables Transport Energy
efficiency
Researchand
development
Carboncapture
andstorage
OECD/IEA - 2010