ABC Stadium Options GroupData Research and Realities

Subcommittee

Summary of FindingsJuly 16, 2009

COMMITTEE

Geralyn Franklin (ex Chair) University of DallasSean Lux (co-Chair) USFScott Geiger (co-Chair) USF St. PetersburgJon DeLuca St. Petersburg TimesNancy Howe Maddux Business ReportsJoe Flemming (ex-officio) City of St. Petersburg

Mission: Identify, analyze and compare existing and potential baseball trade areas within the Tampa Bay MSA

MISSION

•Downtown St. Petersburg•Mid-Pinellas (North St. Pete)•Westshore•Downtown Tampa•Fairgrounds

FIVE TRADE AREAS SELECTED

Key Criterion: Number of potential season ticket sales.• 2 to 1 business to individual season ticket sales in most MLB markets.• In Tampa Bay, that ratio is 2 to 1 individual to business season ticket sales

KEY CRITERIA

25.39%

24.95%8.55%

6.81%

5.89%4.22% 4.09% 2.40%

1.72% 1.57% Pinellas

Hillsborough

Pasco

Manatee

Sarasota

Polk

Orange

Hernando

Lee

Seminole

Data Accumulated By Tampa Bay Rays Ticket Services.

SINGLE GAME TICKET BUYERS BY COUNTY

25.3%

0.5%0.4%

5.4%

4.9%2.5%

2.2%

1.8%

47.2%

Pinellas

Hillsborough

Sarasota

Manatee

Orange

Polk

Pasco

Charlotte

Hernando

25.1%

1.0% 0.9%

5.1%

4.9%

4.0% 1.9%1.6%

42.6%

Pinellas

Hillsborough

Pasco

Manatee

Sarasota

Hernando

Polk

Charlotte

Orange

NEW 2009 SEASON TICKET HOLDERS VS 2008BY COUNTY

2008 Season Ticket Holders

2009 NewSeason Ticket Holders

Data Accumulated By Tampa Bay Rays Ticket Services.

RAYS FANS AS CUSTOMERS

Rays Fans defined as attended, listened to or watched a Rays game in the past 12 monthsScarborough Tampa, FL 2008 R2

Compared to the Tampa Bay market, Rays Fans are more likely to be: Educated – 45% more likely to have a post-graduate degree Wealthy – 32% more likely to have a household income of $100,000 or more Homeowners – 29% more likely to have a home valued at $350,000 or more

(100 = Market Average)0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Two or more

One

Children in Household

$350,000 or more

Owned Home Value

Post-grad Degree

College Degree

Level of Education

$100,000 or more

Household Income

Men 21-54

Adults 18-34

1. Methodology2. Overview of the Tampa Bay MSA3. The Five Trade Areas in Detail4. Findings

OVERVIEW

Trade Areas were defined as 30 and 60 minute drive times (avg from the mid-point in the trade area).

Maps were developed using ESRI’s proprietary software.

ESRI utilizes the TeleAtlas database to estimate drive times.

DEFINING TRADE AREAS

EXAMPLE TRADE AREA

RED = 30 MIN

GREEN = 60 MIN

Trade Area Overview• Population Demographics

Trade Area Business Activity• Potential Business Season Ticket Holders

Trade Area Baseball Market• Potential Individual Season Ticket Holders

METHODOLOGY

Overview• ESRI (estimates based on 2000 U.S. Census)• Equifax (information from credit ratings)

Business Activity• Dunn & Bradstreet (all U.S. businesses processing credit card transactions)

Baseball Market• ESRI (market tapestries)• Scarborough (phone survey)

DATA SOURCES

ESRI compiles its data based on the trade area maps its software develops.

Equifax, Dunn & Bradstreet, and Scarborough data were compiled by zip code.

We approximated what zip codes were in each 30 and 60 min trade area for these data sources.

Data for Polk and Sarasota Counties unavailable for Equifax & Dunn & Bradstreet

COMPILING THE DATA

2008 2013 (est.)Total Households 1,720,306 1,848,609Total Population 3,426,162 3,742,946Median Age 46 47Household Income $48,056 $51,184

*7 Counties: Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, SarasotaSource: ESRI

TAMPA BAY MSA*

GROWTH BY COUNTY

20091 2014 1 20302 20503

Pinellas 928,860 915,823 1,093,857 1,372,781Hillsborough 1,222,012 1,326,822 1,672,554

2,098,901Pasco 471,208 538,705 692,973 945,296Manatee 327,229 355,638 461,801 622,210Polk 600,417 663,560 945,296

1,047,890Sarasota 394,369 426,950 503,436 695,985Hernando 173,694 198,988 261,139 347,9601Source: ESRI; 2Source: Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI), Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BEBR), West Central Florida

Transportation Model (WCF Tran); 3Source: REMI & WCF Tran

PERCENTAGE GROWTH

20141 20302 20503 TOTALPinellas -1.40% 19.44% 25.50% 47.79%Hillsborough 8.58% 26.06% 25.49% 71.76%Pasco 14.32% 28.64% 36.41%

100.61%Manatee 8.68% 29.85% 34.74% 90.15%Polk 10.52% 42.46% 10.85% 74.53%Sarasota 8.26% 17.91% 38.25% 76.48%Hernando 14.56% 31.23% 33.25%

100.33%1Source: ESRI; 2Source: Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI), Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BEBR), West Central Florida

Transportation Model (WCF Tran); 3Source: REMI & WCF Tran

DOWNTOWN ST. PETERSBURG

RED = 30 MIN

GREEN = 60 MIN

MID PINELLAS

RED = 30 MIN

GREEN = 60 MIN

WESTSHORE

RED = 30 MIN

GREEN = 60 MIN

DOWNTOWN TAMPA

RED = 30 MIN

GREEN = 60 MIN

FAIRGROUNDS

RED = 30 MIN

GREEN = 60 MIN

OVERALL COMPARISON

20351 20502 GROWTHDowntownSt. Petersburg 1,543,047 1,749,816 13.40%Mid Pinellas 2,186,612 2,482,183 13.52%Westshore 2,795,898 3,249,366 16.22%DowntownTampa 2,265,168 2,649,404 16.96%Fairgrounds 2,197,280 2,626,506 19.53%1Source: Tampa Bay Region Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs)2Source: West Central Florida Transportation Model (WCF Tran)

30 Minute Trade Areas

OVERALL COMPARISON

20351 20502 GROWTHDowntownSt. Petersburg 4,647,134 5,572,165 19.91%Mid Pinellas 4,982,194 6,049,258 21.42%Westshore 4,958,365 2,793,825 22.36%DowntownTampa 4,958,365 6,066,817 22.71%Fairgrounds 5,267,652 6,459,167 22.62%1Source: Tampa Bay Region Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs)2Source: West Central Florida Transportation Model (WCF Tran)

60 Minute Trade Areas

OVERALL COMPARISON

Downtown

St. PeteMid

Pinellas WestshoreDowntown

Tampa FairgroundsOverall Demographics Total Population 1,136,452 1,573,116 1,609,189 1,665,257 1,459,281 Age (avg) 42.1 41 38.6 38.4 37.1 Avg. Household Income (ESRI) $45,057 $47,054 $49,587 $50,306 $50,818

Avg. Household Income (Equifax) $39,100 $41,400 $42,700 $42,900 $44,200

Households > $75K Income (ESRI) 123,032 182,304 191,849 200,206 174,880

Households > $75K Income (Equifax) 84,867 132,667 154,405 142,409 108,923

2008 30 Minute Trade Areas

• All five trade areas have similar populations within 60 minutes drive time.

• However, differences exist amongst the 30 minutes trade areas.

• The Downtown St. Petersburg trade area has less economic activity and population than the other four.

KEY FINDINGS

For 2008…….

KEY FINDINGS

Compared to the average of the other four trade areas, the Downtown St. Petersburg Trade Area has…….•28% less population•9% less household income•35% less households with $75K of greater in income•and is 8% older

2008 30 Min Trade Areas

OVERALL COMPARISON

Downtown

St. Pete Mid

Pinellas WestshoreDowntown

Tampa Fairgrounds

Overall Demographics Total Population 3,588,205 3,804,573 3,836,714 3,954,561 4,009,964 Age (avg) 43.4 43.4 43.1 43.2 43.2

Avg. Household Income (ESRI) $57,198 $56,089 $55,224 $55,436 $55,600

Households > $75K Income (ESRI) 539,036 543,260 527,930 548,515 560,418

2013 60 Min Trade Areas

• Differences in 60 min trade areas begin to develop.

• Hillsborough TA’s will grow approximately ¾% more than Downtown St. Pete.

• Homes w/ more than $75K income will grow by 20% more in other four TA’s over Downtown St. Pete.

KEY FINDINGS

2013 60 Min Trade Areas

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY COMPARISON

Downtown St. Pete

Mid Pinellas Westshore

Downtown Tampa Fairgrounds

Business Activity Firms 12,747 16,274 17,708 16,100 12,577 Total Employees 648,005 807,172 854,643 814,147 655,195 Total Revenue $67.8 B $84 B $85.9 B $85.8B $69.8 B

2008 30 Min Trade Areas1

1 Firms with more than 10 employees. Source: Dunn&Bradstreet

• Mid Pinellas, Westshore, and Downtown Tampa have an average economic activity of $85.23 Billion

• Fairgrounds Trade Area has $15.3 B or 18% less economic activity

• Downtown St. Pete has $17.4 B or 20.5% less economic activity

KEY FINDINGS

2008 30 Min Trade Areas

BASEBALL MARKET COMPARISON

2008 30 Min Trade AreasBaseball Market

InformationDowntown St.

Pete Mid Pinellas WestshoreDowntown

Tampa Fairgrounds

Household Entertainment Expenditures $1.6 B $2.2 B $2.2 B $2.3 B $2.0 B

Rays Fans 438,358 545,146 557,223 561,366 401,634

Attended a Rays’ game in last 12 months 217,756 275,068 250,820 247,237 173,606

% Trade Area Population Attending Games 19.16% 17.49% 15.59% 14.85% 11.90%

Potential Season Ticket Purchasers 26,723 55,595 107,728 129,461 126,760

Mid Pinellas, Westshore, and Downtown Tampa have more Rays Fans than:• Downtown St. Pete Trade Area (116K or 26.5% less)• Fairgrounds (153 K or 27.6% less)

KEY FINDINGS

On average, more people currently attend Rays games from Mid Pinellas, Westshore, and Downtown Tampa than:• Downtown St. Pete Trade Area (39.95 K or 18.35% less)• Fairgrounds (84K or 32.6% less)

KEY FINDINGS

Trade Area % of Population attendingDowntown St. Pete 19.16%Mid Pinellas 17.49%Westshore 15.59%Downtown Tampa 14.85%Fairgrounds 11.90%

KEY FINDINGSThe further away from the stadium you live, the less likely you are to attend Rays’ games:

KEY QUESTION

Would more or less of 19.2% of the population attend a Rays’ game IF the stadium was within a 30 min drive?

Limited information to address this question.

ESRI’s Market Tapestries provides some insight.

ESRI categorizes Americans by 12 life styles/stages and 11 location categories.This creates 65 consumer segments or “tapestries.”ESRI studies the buying patterns of people in these 65 tapestries.Purchasing behavior information is deduced on media, financial, entertainment, diet, and vacation preferences.

WHAT’S A TAPESTRY?

Trade Area

Entertainment Preferences

The Arts Baseball Golf Football Basketball Hockey Auto Racing GamingOutdoors &

ExerciseDowntown

St. Pete27,71648,819

5.6%4.3%

9,04026,723

1.8%2.4%

98,850220,028

20%19.4%

125,009274,144

25.3%24.1%

121,242290,449

24.5%25.6%

77,585183,230

15.7%16.1%

142,399328,854

28.8%28.9%

119,112238,871

24.1%21%

363,321759,762

73.9%66.9%

Mid Pinellas 32,94174,279

4.9%4.7%

19,26555,595

2.8%3.5%

156,700359,643

23.1%22.9%

175,720344,475

25.9%21.9%

163,969469,275

24.2%29.8%

97,772220,447

14.4%14%

175,674406,795

25.9%25.9%

151,559307,499

23.4%19.6%

482,0511,110,192

71.1%70.6%

Westshore 33,19675,888

5%4.7%

34,475107,728

5.6%6.7%

167,519342,750

25.2%21.3%

176,262393,718

26.7%24.5%

216,977439,099

32.7%27.3%

75,601177,068

11.4%11%

167,482409,740

25.2%25.5%

112,108232,938

16.9%14.5%

514,0991,207,706

77.4%75.1%

DowntownTampa

32,44673,907

4.8%4.5%

44,775129,461

6.6%7.8%

145,060347,343

21.3%21%

153,335349,968

22.5%21.1%

167,988400,755

24.7%24.2%

73,352172,438

10.8%10.4%

139,522416,008

20.5%25.1%

111,755232,561

16.4%14%

513,2611,235,670

75.4%74.7%

Fairgrounds 30,08667,650

5.1%4.6%

43,174126,760

7.3%8.7%

115,324290,788

19.7%19.9%

116,896271,291

19.9%18.6%

155,878359,653

26.7%24.6%

75,151123,039

12.8%8.4%

117,961325,798

20.1%22.3%

93,109159,224

15.9%10.9%

458,8401,196,989

78.2%82%

# of Households % of Households

St. Pete

494,103 North Pinellas

677,711

Westshore

663,837

DowntownTampa

680,972 FairGrounds

586,842

# of Individuals % of Population 1,136,451 1,573,116 1,609,192 1,655,260 1,459,279

ENTERTAINMENT PREFERENCES

TAMPA BAY MSA

Population breakdown by Trade Area for consumers with attending baseball games as a stated entertainment preference:

POTENTIAL SEASON TIX

Downtown St. Pete

Mid Pinellas Westshore

DowntownTampa Fairgrounds

26,723 55,595 107,728 129,461 126,760

WHAT’S NEXT?

Questions?