www.TamingtheUnpredictable.com

Nathaniel Palmer, Chief BPM Strategist, SRA International

Keith Swenson, Vice President of R&D, Fujitsu

"The most important, and indeed the truly unique, contribution of management in the 20th century was the fifty-fold increase in the

productivity of the manual worker in manufacturing. The most important contribution management needs to make

in the 21st century is similarly to increase the productivity of knowledge work and the knowledge worker.”

Peter Drucker,

1969 coins the term “Knowledge Worker” in ‘The Age of Discontinuity’

30 Years later authors in ‘Management Challenges for the 21st Century’ . . .

BPM = A Transactional Thread Linking Activities Across Multiple

Systems & Applications

State State State

Control Control Control

Activity Activity Activity Activity

The 2nd Revolution in IT Architecture

1969 Today1995

Led to 40 Years of Data-centric Application Design

Laid the Foundation for Process-centric Applications;

Still the Reference Model for N-Tiered, Service-Oriented & Process-Driven Applications

How to Improve Knowledge Work?Productivity Pain Points

Source: 2011 ACM Survey

Greatest Productivity Hurdles Knowledge Workers Face in a Typical Workday

Tracking Status & Information Represent the Greatest Hurdles to Knowledge Worker Productivity

Work Patterns of Knowledge Workers

Percent of the Day Spent in Different Modes

Source: 2011 ACM Survey

2/3 of a Knowledge Worker’s Day is Spent in Unstructured & Often Unpredictable Work Patterns

Roughly 1/3 is Structured, Predictable, Automated or Automatable

Deterministic vs. Non-Deterministic

BPMN Processes Are Deterministic, Where All Possible Paths Are Pre-Determined or Known in Advance, No Matter How Complex the Pathways May Be.

The Direction of the Process is Determined by the Pre-Defined Path and Current State; State is Determined by the Preceding Activity, in Other Words, Where it is in the Process.

Case Management Focuses on Events and Outcomes

An Event Occurs

The Case is CompletedA Case File

is Opened

Activities and Work Create Content & Context Added to the Case

Event-Driven? Yes.Agile? Maybe.

ACM Processes Are Goal-Driven and Non-Deterministic,The End Point is Known at the Start, the Pathway for Reaching it is Determined by the Outcome at Each Stage as well as Rules and Policies Applicable to the Case. The State of the Case is determined by the Content and Context Within the Case, Not Where the Case is at Any Time.

Issue Resolved & Recorded

Customer Reports Problem

A Case is Opened

Issue is Investigated

Solution Applied,

Unsuccessfully

Alternatives Researched &

Applied

Goal-Driven = Non-Linear

Cases Evolve Over Time in the Direction of Achieving a Goal, Often in Unpredictable Directions, Requiring the Ability to Jump Forward, Jump Back, Re-do or Otherwise Perform Work in a Sequence That Can’t be Determined in Advance.

Adaptable, Not Ad-Hoc

Business Rules, Business Analytics, Context-Sensitive ‘Help’ and Knowledge Management Functions Help Guide Knowledge Workers to Make Decisions About Cases as They Evolved.

The Case Management System Adapts to the Context of the Case, Guiding the Outcome Based on the Combination of Rules/Policies, Data, and Application of Knowledge Worker Know-How.

Case Management is a System of Record

BPM Provides a Transactional Across Various Systems of Record.

Case Management Captures the Context of “What Happened” in Virtual Case Folder Which Serves as the Long-Lived System of Record of the Case.

Files (including email, voicemail and traditional documents) Reside Outside of the Case but are Tracked as Part of the Permanent Record.

Case Management is a System of Record

A Case May be Restarted at Any Time, or Remain “Living” in its Current State for Any Duration Until Another Event Occurs.

Knowledge Captured During the Performance of Case Work can be Used as a Template to Launch a New Case Instance.

Case Management & the iWorker

ACM Will Further the Integration of Outside Tools and Social Media, Delivering "mash ups” to Facilitate Better Communication and Faster Problem Resolution

BPM, ACM & the iWorker

Mobile Devices Will Change Work Patterns Faster Than Existing Applications Can Keep Pace.

BPM and ACM will be the Platform Which Enables Work to Follow the Workers, Virtually Integrating Resources From Existing Systems With New Content and Context, Capturing Events and Providing Access to These Wherever Work is Performed.

Delivering Work the Way We Work

By Enabling the Work to Follow the Worker,

BPM and Case Management Provide the Cohesiveness

of a Single Environment (single point of access) but

Does Not Determine nor Impose Whether that is

Virtual or Physical.

Enabling Quantum Organizations

as a new level of effectiveness

Keith D. SwensonVice President of R&D

Fujitsu America

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1990 2000 2010 2020

Mass p2p& tribe orientedcommunications

We are standing on the crux of a change that will affect every aspect of our working lives.

How will you take your organization through this substantial change and benefit from it?

1990 2000 2010 2020

Dominatedby

<< Push >>Organizations Dominated

by

>> Pull <<Organizations

Our own conceptual limitations stand in the way of capturing the full benefit of social business

1990 2000 2010 2020

Remain << Push >> Change to >> Pull <<

The Root of the Conceptual Problem

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Everything, it was thought, could be predicted if you measure the initial conditions carefully enough.

F = ma

Isaac Newton

We assume the system runs on simple rules.

Chaos was believed to simply be complexity so great that in practice scientists couldn’t track it, but they were sure that in principle they might one day be able to do so. - Briggs & Peat (1989)

The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle: Chaos can not banished through perfectly precise measurement.

At subatomic level, particles are constantly forming and disappearing.

And yet…. structures at our level remain remarkably stable.

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Newtonian vs. Quantum

externally observable limited precision

smoothness

based on simple rules

predictability

turbulence

relationship based

unpredictability

It was as if the ground had been pulled out from under one, with no firm

foundation to be seen anywhere, upon which one could have built. - Einstein

Henry Ford’s Assembly Line

The Industrial Revolution:… the Newtonian view in business.

Frederick Winslow Taylor•Time and Motion Studies•Mass production office work

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Routine work is already to a large extent, being automated

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For Knowledge Workers, think not of a machine, but an ecosystem 32

Newtonian vs. Quantum

externally observable limited precision

smoothness

based on simple rules

predictability

turbulence

relationship based

unpredictability

The Power Of Pull

“Pull platforms are emerging as a response to growing uncertainty.”

“They seek to expand the opportunity for creativity by local participants dealing with immediate needs.”

<< Push >> Models

>> Pull << Models

• Adaptive Case Management

• Knowledge Workers• Pull Model• Get Things Done

Returning to“Human 1.0”

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Roles mean nothing without understanding the network of relationships and the resources that are required to support the work of that person. – Margaret Wheatley

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Important worker qualities will be: •High Concept•High Touch -Daniel H. Pink

1. Understand the limits of Newtonian view – and Scientific Management

2. Beware of over-simplifying the job– Don’t just “pick a process”

3. Focus on providing the right information– Promote a culture of sharing

4. Embrace complexity– Don’t de-skill the workplace

5. Empower people to respond to customers– Decentralize, but monitor

6. Hire/promote right-brained people

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Crossing the gap will require a new mindset at all levels of your organization.

1990 2000 2010 2020

Dominatedby

<< Push >>Organizations Dominated

by

>> Pull <<Organizations

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www.TamingtheUnpredictable.com

Nathaniel Palmer, Chief BPM Strategist, SRA International

Keith Swenson, Vice President of R&D, Fujitsu