Tamil Nadu Economy & Vision 2023 - IMaCS
Transcript of Tamil Nadu Economy & Vision 2023 - IMaCS
Tamil Nadu Economy & Vision 2023
26 - 27 June, 2002
Madras Chamber of Commerce & Industry
29th September 2012 Chennai
R. Raghuttama Rao
Managing Director, IMaCS
v
Recent Trends in GDP Growth – all India
9.3%
6.8%
8.3% 8.4%
6.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Deceleration
across all sectors
Real GDP growth
down to 6.5% in
FY12, which is the
lowest since FY03
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GDP growth of southern states
3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008-12
TN 6.1% 4.9% 9.4% 11.7% 9.4% 8.3%
Karnataka 12.6% 7.1% 5.2% 8.9% 6.4% 8.0%
Kerala 8.8% 5.6% 8.9% 9.1% 7.8% 8.3%
Puducherry -1.3% 47.8% 3.4% 3.7% 3.9% 9.0%
AP 12.0% 6.9% 6.0% 10.0% 6.8% 8.0%
Five Southern
States
9.8% 6.1% 7.3% 10.1% 7.7% 8.2%
India 9.3% 6.8% 8.3% 8.4% 6.5% 7.8%
Tamil Nadu has grown faster than the country average over the last three years
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Composition of Tamil Nadu’s GDP
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Sector 2010 2011 2012
Agriculture & Allied 9% 8% 8%
Industry 19% 18% 18%
Services 72% 73% 74%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100%
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Key economic indicators of TN have improved in FY12
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Parameters 2010-11 2011-12
Revenue surplus -0.5% 0.1%
Fiscal Deficit 3.04% 2.61%
GSDP Growth (constant prices) 11.7% 9.4%
State own tax revenue to GSDP 8.7% 9.5%
Non tax revenue as a % of tax
revenue
9.7% 10%
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The Vision for Tamil Nadu for 2023 is to become
India’s most prosperous and progressive state with no
poverty, and where its people enjoy all the basic
services of a modern society and live in
harmonious engagement with the environment and
with the rest of the world.
Vision 2023
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VISION 2023 - TARGETS, THEMES AND STRATEGIES
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Key outcome of Vision 2023
1. The per capita income of Tamil Nadu’s residents will reach $ 10,000
per annum (at 2010 prices) by 2023 - in line with that of Upper Middle
Income countries
2. Tamil Nadu will attain a high standards of social development, with the
Human Development Index of the state matching those of developed
countries by 2023
3. Tamil Nadu would provide to its residents, high quality infrastructure all
over the state comparable with the best in the world.
1,625 1,200
10000
12,275
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
TN (2010) India (2010) TN (2023)Pe
r C
ap
ita
In
co
me
$
(Cu
rre
nt
pri
ce
s)
Low Income
Lower Middle Income
Upper
Middle
Income
3,975
1,005 © IMaCS 2012October 3, 2012
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HDI targets 2023 – aim to be the best in India
Parameters (as of 2011) India TN Kerala
Population in Crore 121 7.21 3.33
Annual Growth Rate 1.6% 1.5% 0.5%
Sex Ratio 940 995 1084
Total Fertility Rate 2.6 1.7 1.7
Crude Birth Rate 2009 22.5 16.3 14.7
Crude Death Rate 2009 7.3 7.6 6.8
MMR 2007-09 212 97 81
IMR 2009 50 28 12
Under 5 MR 64 33 14
HDI indicators
Education
Achieve universal
secondary education
Step up enrolment
in higher education
(including vocational
education) to >50 %
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Vision Themes
Vision Themes
Economic Prosperity
Inclusive Growth
Health for All
World Class Infrastructure
Investment Climate
Knowledge Hub
Peace and Security
Heritage and
Ecology
Protection Against
Vulnerability
Governance
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Strategies to achieve Vision 2023...1
1. Increasing the share of manufacturing in the state’s economy
Manufacturing growth rate should be accelerated to facilitate
employment generation
Sector 2004-05 2010-11 2022-23Avg. annual
Growth rate (%)
Primary 12% 12.6% 7% 5.1%
Manufacturing 20% 16.6% 22% 13.8%
Non manufacturing 11% 9.2% 8% 9.5%
Services 57% 61.6% 63% 11.1%
Total 100% 100% 100% 10.9%
2. Make SMEs vibrant in the state
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Strategies to achieve Vision 2023...3
3. Making Tamil Nadu the
knowledge capital and
innovation hub of India
Thrust on innovation across
agriculture, manufacturing,
services, administration, and
finance
a. Skilling 20 million persons over
the next 15 years
b. Fostering a social climate and
institutional structure that will
encourage free movement of
people to and from other states
of India and the globle
Centres of Excellence
Automotive technologies
Solar and clean energy
technologies
Biotechnology
Agricultural practices
Water resources
management
Construction
management
Lifestyle diseases
Aerospace
Basic sciences
Nano technology
Social sciences
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Strategies to achieve Vision 2023...4
4. Specialisation in service offerings
Specialisation is the key to attracting investments and rapid growth. In
the area of Services, the state will strive to be a leader in the
following areas:
a. Back office operations
b. Healthcare
c. Audio and Video - production and post production
d. Tourism
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Strategies to achieve Vision 2023...5
5. Thrust on skill development The single most important resource for the success of Vision 2023 is
the availability of trained, knowledgeable and skilled manpower in
Tamil Nadu. Aim is to train and skill 20 million persons over the next
11 years
Formally educated
(skilled)
Specialised
jobs
(highly skilled)
Large pool ( Minimal Skilled - No
formal education)60 - 65%
1 - 2 %
33 - 39%
Total demand – 20 million
12 -13
million
6.6 – 7.8
million
0.2- 0.4
million
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Strategies to achieve Vision 2023...6
6. Improving agricultural productivity
Vision 2023 has a three-pronged strategy for improving agricultural productivity :
a. Adopting scientific agricultural methods and building an institutional network
to support the continued adoption of the same
b. Ensuring timely irrigation by adopting effective recharging mechanisms,
drip/sprinkler irrigation systems, timely cleaning and deepening of tanks and
canals, and adopting appropriate cropping pattern
c. Developing suitable post harvest infrastructure to maximise the benefits of
value addition and timely marketing of produce.
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Strategies to achieve Vision 2023...7
7. Transforming ten cities into world class cities
Develop ten world class cities which will become the nuclei and
engines for economic growth, thereby facilitating regional and balanced
development across the state.
Universal access to 24x7 water supply and efficient mass transit
systems while making them open-defecation free and garbage free
will be the hallmark of these cities.
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Strategies to achieve Vision 2023...8
8. Thrust on social welfare programmes
The vulnerable and disadvantaged sections will be extended protection by the state and will be equipped to take advantage of the benefits of the economic growth
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Strategies to achieve Vision 2023...9
9. Signature projects
a. Develop world class Centres of Excellence in at least 10 areas that act as
nuclei of innovation
b. Set up two medical cities in southern and western Tamil Nadu
c. Double water storage capacity across the state
d. High speed broadband connectivity to be reached to every village
e. Two supercritical and other power projects of cumulative 10000 MW capacity
f. Gas grid connecting ten large cities
g. 2000 km of 6/8 lane highways
h. High speed rail connecting Chennai - Coimbatore - Madurai - Kanyakumari
i. Three green field ports and 5 minor ports with total cargo handling capacity of
150 million tonnes per annum
j. Greenfield airport near Chennai with an annual capacity of 40 million
k. Development of industrial corridors between Chennai - Hosur, Madurai -
Thoothukudi and Coimbatore - Salem
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Strategies to achieve Vision 2023...10
10.Encourage Public Private Partnership (PPP) in
infrastructure project creation
The total investment requirement for infrastructure over the 15 year
period is estimated at Rs 15,00,000 crore (~US$ 330 billion). Under
the PPP mode, the Government will play the role of a change agent
and will originate infrastructure projects in line with Vision 2023, and
will also focus on the important functions of regulation and overall
governance.
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Key imperatives to achieve Vision 2023 targets
Key Assumptions Present Projected
Revenue surplus (estimates for 2011-12) -0.25% 1.5% (by 2015)
Fiscal Deficit 3.04% 3% (by 2012)
GSDP Growth (estimates for 2011-12 at
constant prices)
9.4% 11% (by 2017)
State own tax revenue to GSDP 8.7% 10% (by 2012)
11% (by 2017)
Non tax revenue as a % of tax revenue 9.7% 13%
Share of central taxes as a % of GSDP
(13th Finance commission)
2% 2.58%
Infrastructure investment to GSDP 5% (approx) 10% (by 2015)
12% (by 2021)
Note: The last column mentions the value for the parameter from the year indicated till 2023© IMaCS 2012October 3, 2012
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Break-up of infrastructure investments over the next
11 years
Sector Investment Requirement
Rs. Crore
Energy 450,000
Transport 370,000
Industrial and Commercial 160,000
Urban Infrastructure 275,000
Agriculture 40,000
Human development (Health & Education) 30,000
Sub-total 13,25,000
General and Social infrastructure projects 1,00,000
Capital improvements to existing projects 75,000
Sub total 1,75,000
Grand Total 15,00,000
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Expected funding mix of infrastructure projects
Year
Investment in
Infrastructure
(Rs. crore)
State
Government
(%)
Central
Government
(%)
Private
Sector
(%)
2010 25,000 60% 25% 15%
2016 93,705 33% 30% 37%
2023 237,690 28% 30% 42%
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In summary
Vision 2023 is a bold statement aiming to make Tamil Nadu the numero
uno state in the country
Vision 2023 is a guide that seeks to channel the ambitions of a modern
democratic state towards a desirable and aspirational future
Vision 2023 straddles developmental outcomes across different
spheres – economic, social, human development, infrastructure,
agriculture, environmental, etc to improve the quality of life
Vision 2023 has stretch targets – inspiring and challenging, and
eminently reachable
Vision 2023 is a challenge for all stakeholders –Government, politcal
leaders, civil servants, industry, institutions, communities, civil society..
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Thank you
For any clarifications on this document, please contact:
R. Raghuttama Rao
email: [email protected]
© IMaCS 2012
October 3, 2012
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