Tam Citi 20080626 Eng
Transcript of Tam Citi 20080626 Eng
June, 2008
Citi's 1st Annual Brazil Equity Conference
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Information and ProjectionThis notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations of
the Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication. These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.
This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.
This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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PreviousPeriod
CurrentPeriod
J F M A M J J A S ON D J F M A M J J A S ON D J F M AM J J A S ON D J F M A M8085
9095
100
105110115
120125
130
Domestic Market - Variation(vs previous period)
The domestic market grew 11% from January to May 2008
Source: ANAC
Accum. marketgrowth 2006
12%
Accum. marketgrowth 2005
19%
Accum. marketgrowth 2007
12%
Accum. marketgrowth 2008
11%
20072005 2006 2008
4
PreviousPeriod
Market
TAM
J F M A M J J A S ON D J F M A M J J A S ON D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
International Market - Variation(vs previous period)
The international market (among Brazilian carriers) is recuperating, and grew 43% in 2008…
Source: ANAC
Accum. Marketgrowth 2008
43%
Acum TAM 200641%
Acum TAM 200771%
Acum TAM 200540%
Acum TAM 200848%
Accum. marketgrowth 2005
7%
Accum. marketdecrease 2006
30%
Accum. marketdecrease 2007
5%
20072005 2006 2008
5
…with higher growth anticipated for Brazilian carriers due to the unbalance in the bilateral agreements
* estimates
53.3%
46.7%
53.8%
46.2%
71.5%
28.5%
65.0%
35.0%
62.6%
37.4%
2004 2005 2006 2007* April2008*
0
20
40
60
80
100%
% international traffic
BrazilianCarriers
IntlCarriers
6
We are both domestic and international market leaders
TAM’s Domestic Market Share*TAM’s Domestic Market Share*
Source: ANAC
* RPK – Revenue passenger kilometer
TAM’s International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriersTAM’s International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriers
33,0%35,8%
48,0% 48,9% 49,2% 50,0% 49,3%43,5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - May 2008 1Q08 May 2008
12,0% 14,3%
37,5%
67,5% 69,8% 67,7%74,3%
18,8%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - May 2008 1Q08 May 2008
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We are strengthening our product in the international market through fleet and network
Increased widebody fleet plan for the next 10 years, substituting older aircraft
2 A340s (delivered in 2007)
8 B777-300ERs (4 in 2008, 4 in 2012)
22 A350s (as of 2013)
New A330 reducing fleet average age
Complete phase-out of F100 (impact on intra South American routes)
Expansion of network through additional destinations and frequencies
New full code share agreements at each major country – United Airlines; Lufthansa; LAN Group and TAP
Memorandum of understanding with Air Canada end Swiss
Focus on South American coverage – integration of TAM Mercosur activities
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The international operations works as a natural hedge
24%
76%
33%
67%
2006 20070
20
40
60
80
100%
Revenue(Passenger + Cargo)
DomesticInternational
Dollarexchangerate
DomesticInternational
2.138
73%27%
1.771
64%36%
Approximately 50% of our costs
(including fuel) are exposed to foreign
currencies
Approximately 50% of our costs
(including fuel) are exposed to foreign
currencies-17%
ASK proportion
Revenues originated in the
international operations are
expected to reach 45% - 50% until
Dec/2008
Revenues originated in the
international operations are
expected to reach 45% - 50% until
Dec/2008
9
158
157
506
1,093
199
214
613
1,321
1Q07 1Q08
1,913
2,347
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Gross Revenue (R$ M)
Dom.Pax
Int.Pax
Cargo
Others
Domestic passenger revenue grew 21%
RPK increased 15%
ASK increased 14%
International passenger revenue grew 21%
RPK increased 61%
ASK increased 50%
Cargo revenue grew 37%
Other revenue grew 26%
Our gross revenue increased 23%...
23%
10
...but total RASK reduced 2%...
RASK total ¹ ²
RASK scheduled domestic²Domestic load factor - %
Yield scheduled domestic³
RASK scheduled international²
International load factor - %
Yield scheduled international³
Yield scheduled international³(USD cents)
1Q071Q07
16,72
14,54
69,4
22,00
14,07
71,3
19,78
9,65
4Q074Q07
17,87
16,69
70,4
24,90
11,26
71,0
15,88
8,96
1Q081Q08
16,38
15,37
69,9
23,09
11,39
76,9
14,82
8,47
1Q08 vs 1Q07
1Q08 vs 1Q07
-2,1%
5,7%
0,5 p.p.
5,0%
-19,0%
5,6 p.p.
-25,1%
-12,2%
1Q08 vs 4Q07
1Q08 vs 4Q07
-8,3%
-7,9%
-0,5 p.p.
-7,3%
1,2%
5,9 p.p.
-6,7%
-5,4%
R$ Cents
1 Includes charter, cargo and Other revenues, net of taxes2 Net of taxes3 Gross of taxes
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CASK
CASK excl-fuel
1Q07 1Q08
15.92 16.25
0
5
10
15
20
Total CASKBR GAAP - R$ cents
1Q08 vs 1Q07
-5.5%
2.1%
...while total CASK increased 2%...
12
...reducing the spread (RASK-CASK)...
1Q07 1Q08
16.72 15.92 16.38 16.25
0
5
10
15
20
RASK/CASK (R$ Cents)BR GAAP
RASKCASK
EBITMargin
Spread
4.8%
0.80
0.8%
0.13
13
1Q07 1Q08
340
272
0
100
200
300
400
EBITDAR - R$ M
...impacting our margins in BR GAAP...
Margin over net revenue
1Q07 1Q08
88
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
EBIT - R$ M
1Q07 1Q08
59
30
20
40
60
80
Net Income - R$ M
BR GAAP
-20%
19%
12%
-80%
5%
0,8%
3% 0,1%
-96%
14
1Q07 1Q08
331
283
0
100
200
300
400
EBITDAR - R$ M
...and in US GAAP...
1Q07 1Q08
146
83
0
50
100
150
EBIT - R$ M
1Q07 1Q08
138
47
0
50
100
150
Net Income - R$ M
US GAAP
Margin over net revenue
-14%
18%
13%
-43%
8%
4%
8%
2%
-66%
15
1Q07 1Q08
0.39
0.02
Earnings per shareBR GAAP (R$)
1Q07 1Q08
0.92
0.31
Earnings per share US GAAP (R$)
-96%
...reducing our earnings per share
-66%
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BR GAAP Leasing IncomeTaxes
Others US GAAP
3
57
-19
6 47
0
20
40
60
Net Profit Reconciliation to US GAAP
44 aircrafts are reclassified as capital
leases as per SFAS nº 13
44 aircrafts are reclassified as capital
leases as per SFAS nº 13
The main difference between BR and US GAAP is the accounting treatment of aircraft leasing
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We are well positioned compared to other airline companies
Republic
Copa
West
Jet
Lan
Alle
gia
nt
Jazz
SkyW
est
South
west
TAM
Pin
nacl
e
JetB
lue
Air C
anada
ACE A
via
tion
Gol
Continenta
l
Del
ta
AM
R
Nort
hw
est
Ala
ska
AirTra
n
US A
irw
ays
Expre
ssJe
t
UAL
18%17%
14%
12%11%
9%8%
4% 4% 3%2%
-0% -1% -1%-2%
-3% -3% -3%
-5% -6%-7% -8%
-9%-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20%
Operating Margin (Mar Q 2008) US GAAP
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Our balance sheet remains solid
R$ million - BRGAAP 2008* 2007 2006 2005 2004
Cash 2,226 2,607 2,453 995 297
Short-Term Debt 959 1,098 363 216 204
Long-Term Debt 1,365 1,345 895 425 399
Total Debt 2,324 2,443 1,258 641 603
Shareholder's Equity 1,489 1,527 1,449 760 191
Capitalization 2,855 2,872 2,344 1,185 590
Aircraft and flight equipment leases 5,949 5,976 5,032 4,389 4,557
Total Debt Adjusted 8,273 8,419 6,290 5,030 5,160
Total Capitalization Adjusted 8,804 8,848 7,376 5,574 5,147
Debt / Capitalization 81% 85% 54% 54% 102%
Adjusted Debt / Adjusted Capitalization 94% 95% 85% 90% 100%
Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Capitalization 69% 66% 52% 72% 94%
* LTM
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Brazilian domestic market has high growth potential
Boardings per capita
Boardings per capita, adjusted by GDP per capita at PPPSource: World Bank Data, Credit Suisse Research as of 2006
Annual Trips / Person
1.70
1.85
2.32
0.62
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.82
Japan
US
Argentina
Chile
Mexico
Russia
Brazil
Germany
100107.3 111.4
117.4100
140.6
157.6
100
121.2
175.4
228.2
256.8
104.9
176.4
112.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Market’s RPK
GDP
TAM’s RPK
Growth of Brazilian Domestic Market
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High concentration of passengers in 10 airports
Source: ANAC
% Total Domestic Passengers Boarded
Curitiba
Recife
PortoAlegre
Confins
Salvador
Galeão
Guarulhos
Brasília
Congonhas
Santos Dumont
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
% TAM slots
44%
42%
33%
30%
39%
37%
27%
39%
36%
25%
Important barrier to entry for newcomers
Limited ability for other competitors to grow
10 main airports in Brazil carry 70% of all passenger traffic
TAM has in aggregate ~40% of all slots available in these airports
21
As Brazil becomes “stable”, the leisure segment will become increasingly more important
Leis
ure
Busi
nes
s
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
17.9
26.6 27.025.2
28.2
35.4
39.7
44.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Domestic Market Passenger Mix (RPK M)
CAGR
11%
22%
Traveling is one of the top “desire” items for consumption
* TAM Estimates
22
We will be expanding our fare bundle strategy for the domestic market in 2008...
Addition of extra features in the segmented bundles
Ability to “sell up”categories
Potential for further revenue increase
Harmonization of the fare bundle strategy to TAM Fidelidade growth
23
...increasing capillarity of sales through our new methods of payments... Launched new methods of payment in May 2007
Payment at lottery storesApproximately 9,000 stores in Brazil
Already functioning as bank correspondent
Billing slipsAutomatic debit Financing for passengers via direct consumer credit with the main retail banks
Focus on leisure/lower income segments
24
...optimizing the utilization of our aircraft on off peak hours
* Average day in October, 2007
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2350
55
60
65
70
75
80%
Domestic load factor per hour
Off Peak Off Peak Off PeakPeakPeak
25
We are beginning to evaluate new potential business units in the company
TAM Linhas AéreasTAM Linhas Aéreas
MRO(São Carlos)
MRO(São Carlos)
Loyalty ProgramLoyalty
Program HandlingHandlingCargoCargo
Already structured as a business unit with focus in maximizing assets
None or little focus on selling services to third-parties Not structured as business units
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We have a positive outlook for 2008
Maintain leadership in both domestic and international markets
ASK growth of Domestic 14%
International 40%
Average load factor at approximately 70% overall
Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoy
Three additional international destinations or frequencies in 2008
Domestic market demand growth from 8% to 12% (in RPK terms)
2008 Guidance2008 Guidance
TAMTAM
MarketMarket
Actual - 1Q08Actual - 1Q08
10.9%
49.2% dom*69.8% intl*
14.2%49.7%
73.2%
-5.5%
---
* From January to May
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Our growth plan is supported by a flexible fleet plan
3
14
88
10
4
2
16
101
4
2
18
104
4
2
20
110
4
2
22
113
8
2
22
115
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
115123
128136
141147
0
50
100
150
Total fleet
B777 MD11 Airbus wide-body Airbus narrow-body F100
Since dec/07 we
are monofleet in
domestic operations
Since dec/07 we
are monofleet in
domestic operations
B767
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