Tam Citi 20080626 Eng

28
June, 2008 Citi's 1 st Annual Brazil Equity Conference

Transcript of Tam Citi 20080626 Eng

Page 1: Tam Citi 20080626 Eng

June, 2008

Citi's 1st Annual Brazil Equity Conference

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Information and ProjectionThis notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations of

the Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication. These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.

This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.

This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

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PreviousPeriod

CurrentPeriod

J F M A M J J A S ON D J F M A M J J A S ON D J F M AM J J A S ON D J F M A M8085

9095

100

105110115

120125

130

Domestic Market - Variation(vs previous period)

The domestic market grew 11% from January to May 2008

Source: ANAC

Accum. marketgrowth 2006

12%

Accum. marketgrowth 2005

19%

Accum. marketgrowth 2007

12%

Accum. marketgrowth 2008

11%

20072005 2006 2008

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PreviousPeriod

Market

TAM

J F M A M J J A S ON D J F M A M J J A S ON D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

International Market - Variation(vs previous period)

The international market (among Brazilian carriers) is recuperating, and grew 43% in 2008…

Source: ANAC

Accum. Marketgrowth 2008

43%

Acum TAM 200641%

Acum TAM 200771%

Acum TAM 200540%

Acum TAM 200848%

Accum. marketgrowth 2005

7%

Accum. marketdecrease 2006

30%

Accum. marketdecrease 2007

5%

20072005 2006 2008

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…with higher growth anticipated for Brazilian carriers due to the unbalance in the bilateral agreements

* estimates

53.3%

46.7%

53.8%

46.2%

71.5%

28.5%

65.0%

35.0%

62.6%

37.4%

2004 2005 2006 2007* April2008*

0

20

40

60

80

100%

% international traffic

BrazilianCarriers

IntlCarriers

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We are both domestic and international market leaders

TAM’s Domestic Market Share*TAM’s Domestic Market Share*

Source: ANAC

* RPK – Revenue passenger kilometer

TAM’s International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriersTAM’s International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriers

33,0%35,8%

48,0% 48,9% 49,2% 50,0% 49,3%43,5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - May 2008 1Q08 May 2008

12,0% 14,3%

37,5%

67,5% 69,8% 67,7%74,3%

18,8%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - May 2008 1Q08 May 2008

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We are strengthening our product in the international market through fleet and network

Increased widebody fleet plan for the next 10 years, substituting older aircraft

2 A340s (delivered in 2007)

8 B777-300ERs (4 in 2008, 4 in 2012)

22 A350s (as of 2013)

New A330 reducing fleet average age

Complete phase-out of F100 (impact on intra South American routes)

Expansion of network through additional destinations and frequencies

New full code share agreements at each major country – United Airlines; Lufthansa; LAN Group and TAP

Memorandum of understanding with Air Canada end Swiss

Focus on South American coverage – integration of TAM Mercosur activities

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The international operations works as a natural hedge

24%

76%

33%

67%

2006 20070

20

40

60

80

100%

Revenue(Passenger + Cargo)

DomesticInternational

Dollarexchangerate

DomesticInternational

2.138

73%27%

1.771

64%36%

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies-17%

ASK proportion

Revenues originated in the

international operations are

expected to reach 45% - 50% until

Dec/2008

Revenues originated in the

international operations are

expected to reach 45% - 50% until

Dec/2008

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158

157

506

1,093

199

214

613

1,321

1Q07 1Q08

1,913

2,347

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Gross Revenue (R$ M)

Dom.Pax

Int.Pax

Cargo

Others

Domestic passenger revenue grew 21%

RPK increased 15%

ASK increased 14%

International passenger revenue grew 21%

RPK increased 61%

ASK increased 50%

Cargo revenue grew 37%

Other revenue grew 26%

Our gross revenue increased 23%...

23%

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...but total RASK reduced 2%...

RASK total ¹ ²

RASK scheduled domestic²Domestic load factor - %

Yield scheduled domestic³

RASK scheduled international²

International load factor - %

Yield scheduled international³

Yield scheduled international³(USD cents)

1Q071Q07

16,72

14,54

69,4

22,00

14,07

71,3

19,78

9,65

4Q074Q07

17,87

16,69

70,4

24,90

11,26

71,0

15,88

8,96

1Q081Q08

16,38

15,37

69,9

23,09

11,39

76,9

14,82

8,47

1Q08 vs 1Q07

1Q08 vs 1Q07

-2,1%

5,7%

0,5 p.p.

5,0%

-19,0%

5,6 p.p.

-25,1%

-12,2%

1Q08 vs 4Q07

1Q08 vs 4Q07

-8,3%

-7,9%

-0,5 p.p.

-7,3%

1,2%

5,9 p.p.

-6,7%

-5,4%

R$ Cents

1 Includes charter, cargo and Other revenues, net of taxes2 Net of taxes3 Gross of taxes

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CASK

CASK excl-fuel

1Q07 1Q08

15.92 16.25

0

5

10

15

20

Total CASKBR GAAP - R$ cents

1Q08 vs 1Q07

-5.5%

2.1%

...while total CASK increased 2%...

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...reducing the spread (RASK-CASK)...

1Q07 1Q08

16.72 15.92 16.38 16.25

0

5

10

15

20

RASK/CASK (R$ Cents)BR GAAP

RASKCASK

EBITMargin

Spread

4.8%

0.80

0.8%

0.13

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1Q07 1Q08

340

272

0

100

200

300

400

EBITDAR - R$ M

...impacting our margins in BR GAAP...

Margin over net revenue

1Q07 1Q08

88

18

0

20

40

60

80

100

EBIT - R$ M

1Q07 1Q08

59

30

20

40

60

80

Net Income - R$ M

BR GAAP

-20%

19%

12%

-80%

5%

0,8%

3% 0,1%

-96%

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1Q07 1Q08

331

283

0

100

200

300

400

EBITDAR - R$ M

...and in US GAAP...

1Q07 1Q08

146

83

0

50

100

150

EBIT - R$ M

1Q07 1Q08

138

47

0

50

100

150

Net Income - R$ M

US GAAP

Margin over net revenue

-14%

18%

13%

-43%

8%

4%

8%

2%

-66%

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1Q07 1Q08

0.39

0.02

Earnings per shareBR GAAP (R$)

1Q07 1Q08

0.92

0.31

Earnings per share US GAAP (R$)

-96%

...reducing our earnings per share

-66%

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BR GAAP Leasing IncomeTaxes

Others US GAAP

3

57

-19

6 47

0

20

40

60

Net Profit Reconciliation to US GAAP

44 aircrafts are reclassified as capital

leases as per SFAS nº 13

44 aircrafts are reclassified as capital

leases as per SFAS nº 13

The main difference between BR and US GAAP is the accounting treatment of aircraft leasing

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We are well positioned compared to other airline companies

Republic

Copa

West

Jet

Lan

Alle

gia

nt

Jazz

SkyW

est

South

west

TAM

Pin

nacl

e

JetB

lue

Air C

anada

ACE A

via

tion

Gol

Continenta

l

Del

ta

AM

R

Nort

hw

est

Ala

ska

AirTra

n

US A

irw

ays

Expre

ssJe

t

UAL

18%17%

14%

12%11%

9%8%

4% 4% 3%2%

-0% -1% -1%-2%

-3% -3% -3%

-5% -6%-7% -8%

-9%-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20%

Operating Margin (Mar Q 2008) US GAAP

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Our balance sheet remains solid

R$ million - BRGAAP 2008* 2007 2006 2005 2004

Cash 2,226 2,607 2,453 995 297

Short-Term Debt 959 1,098 363 216 204

Long-Term Debt 1,365 1,345 895 425 399

Total Debt 2,324 2,443 1,258 641 603

Shareholder's Equity 1,489 1,527 1,449 760 191

Capitalization 2,855 2,872 2,344 1,185 590

Aircraft and flight equipment leases 5,949 5,976 5,032 4,389 4,557

Total Debt Adjusted 8,273 8,419 6,290 5,030 5,160

Total Capitalization Adjusted 8,804 8,848 7,376 5,574 5,147

Debt / Capitalization 81% 85% 54% 54% 102%

Adjusted Debt / Adjusted Capitalization 94% 95% 85% 90% 100%

Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Capitalization 69% 66% 52% 72% 94%

* LTM

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Brazilian domestic market has high growth potential

Boardings per capita

Boardings per capita, adjusted by GDP per capita at PPPSource: World Bank Data, Credit Suisse Research as of 2006

Annual Trips / Person

1.70

1.85

2.32

0.62

0.60

0.55

0.50

0.82

Japan

US

Argentina

Chile

Mexico

Russia

Brazil

Germany

100107.3 111.4

117.4100

140.6

157.6

100

121.2

175.4

228.2

256.8

104.9

176.4

112.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Market’s RPK

GDP

TAM’s RPK

Growth of Brazilian Domestic Market

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High concentration of passengers in 10 airports

Source: ANAC

% Total Domestic Passengers Boarded

Curitiba

Recife

PortoAlegre

Confins

Salvador

Galeão

Guarulhos

Brasília

Congonhas

Santos Dumont

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

% TAM slots

44%

42%

33%

30%

39%

37%

27%

39%

36%

25%

Important barrier to entry for newcomers

Limited ability for other competitors to grow

10 main airports in Brazil carry 70% of all passenger traffic

TAM has in aggregate ~40% of all slots available in these airports

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As Brazil becomes “stable”, the leisure segment will become increasingly more important

Leis

ure

Busi

nes

s

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

17.9

26.6 27.025.2

28.2

35.4

39.7

44.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Domestic Market Passenger Mix (RPK M)

CAGR

11%

22%

Traveling is one of the top “desire” items for consumption

* TAM Estimates

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We will be expanding our fare bundle strategy for the domestic market in 2008...

Addition of extra features in the segmented bundles

Ability to “sell up”categories

Potential for further revenue increase

Harmonization of the fare bundle strategy to TAM Fidelidade growth

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...increasing capillarity of sales through our new methods of payments... Launched new methods of payment in May 2007

Payment at lottery storesApproximately 9,000 stores in Brazil

Already functioning as bank correspondent

Billing slipsAutomatic debit Financing for passengers via direct consumer credit with the main retail banks

Focus on leisure/lower income segments

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...optimizing the utilization of our aircraft on off peak hours

* Average day in October, 2007

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2350

55

60

65

70

75

80%

Domestic load factor per hour

Off Peak Off Peak Off PeakPeakPeak

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We are beginning to evaluate new potential business units in the company

TAM Linhas AéreasTAM Linhas Aéreas

MRO(São Carlos)

MRO(São Carlos)

Loyalty ProgramLoyalty

Program HandlingHandlingCargoCargo

Already structured as a business unit with focus in maximizing assets

None or little focus on selling services to third-parties Not structured as business units

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We have a positive outlook for 2008

Maintain leadership in both domestic and international markets

ASK growth of Domestic 14%

International 40%

Average load factor at approximately 70% overall

Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoy

Three additional international destinations or frequencies in 2008

Domestic market demand growth from 8% to 12% (in RPK terms)

2008 Guidance2008 Guidance

TAMTAM

MarketMarket

Actual - 1Q08Actual - 1Q08

10.9%

49.2% dom*69.8% intl*

14.2%49.7%

73.2%

-5.5%

---

* From January to May

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Our growth plan is supported by a flexible fleet plan

3

14

88

10

4

2

16

101

4

2

18

104

4

2

20

110

4

2

22

113

8

2

22

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

115123

128136

141147

0

50

100

150

Total fleet

B777 MD11 Airbus wide-body Airbus narrow-body F100

Since dec/07 we

are monofleet in

domestic operations

Since dec/07 we

are monofleet in

domestic operations

B767

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